tv Counting the Cost Al Jazeera April 17, 2021 12:30pm-1:01pm +03
with her attend a private ceremony at windsor castle because of the coronavirus restrictions 3 astronauts who've been on a joint russian american mission have safely returned to earth the expedition came to an end when the soyuz spacecraft landed in kazakhstan the astronauts have been on the international space station for about 6 months orbiting the planet nearly $3000.00 times. space x. has been awarded a $2900000000.00 contract to develop a commercial lunar lander if a nasa it will also plan to take 2 astronauts to the moon as part of nasa as artemus program which wants people back that by 2024 space x. beat amazon founder jeff bezos is private space endeavor blue origin and the defense contractor dianetics.
this is al-jazeera these are your top stories 3000000 people have now died of cave in 19 around the world it's a milestone few could have imagined when the outbreak began in late 2019 the united states remains the country with the highest number of deaths followed by brazil mexico and india nearly 140000000 people have been infected well dwight governments now face racing to vaccinate as many people as possible india's coded 19 infection rate shows no sign of slowing it's registered nearly $235000.00 cases in the past day that's yet another daily record $1300.00 people died in the same period bringing the total so far to more than 175000 the w.h.o. says a variant 1st identified in india may be more contagious. hundreds of people have rallied in chicago in support of a teenage latino boy who was shot dead by police have been several incidents during
the past month which have heightened tensions in the u.s. off that choosing president biden once again to members of congress to take gun control legislation every single day every single day there's a match this year in the united states if you count all those who are killed out of the streets of our cities and our rural areas it's a national embarrassment and must come to one then i strongly support the universal background checks which i continue to push for congress has to step up and act the senate has to act and i strongly support and continue and never stop supporting the ban on assault weapons and magazines that hold more than $1010.00 bullets ok headlines lots more news on websites as their adult next stop counting the cost stay with us.
al-jazeera is news tonight on the biggest stories of the week delivered to your inbox last analysis and opinions of the world. subscribe to the conversation. hello i'm kemal son summary of this is counting the cost on al-jazeera weekly look at the world of business and economics this week turkey versus the markets from unconventional economics to the firing of central bank governors it's all unsettled the international investors look at whether turkey's economy could be heading for a bust just in time for elections and 2023 also this week mozambique huge gas
reserves big investors but also an insurgency that could end its route out of poverty and a court victory for the employees of south asia's ship breakers but could it also see the demise of the industry that scarred the beaches from bangladesh to pakistan . in just 2 years' time turkey will mark a 100 years since its inception as a modern republic and the man on the 100 lire note mustapha kemal ataturk was elected its 1st president but almost a century later and the man currently holding that office is finding himself in an uphill economic battle with elections not far away which up type of prime minister 2003 president from 2014 has always been an expansionist capitalizing on turkey's strategic position both geographically and politically i can 2011 when he announced a controversial plan to build the stand bull can now it would run parallel to the
bosphorus now the problem is that renewed efforts to get that project moving again is open up a real can of worms there is a possible breach of a treaty that has kept the peace and the traffic flowing through the bosphorus to just who will pay for it given the states had to spend heavily on the pandemic its debts of sorts to $270000000000.00. but on top of that international investors have been losing faith in the thora tarion rule and unconventional economics for the last few years maybe the simplest way for us to illustrate this is by using the turkish currency the lira as a barometer of confidence in the country economy and the president's so what you're looking at starts in 2003 on the far left it goes all the way up to today and remember to keep this in mind when we talk about a currency weakening against the dollar we actually see it was rising in value i know it looks odd but trust me this is not a good reflection on the corner me rising is bad so here we go 1st decade in power
2003 to 2013 ish strong growth thanks to all that investment in infrastructure generate well received by the international investors the currency is strong then we have what turns out to be a key moment or at least a turning point july the 15th of 2016 the failed coup attempt and surprisingly the currency drops rising on a graph to the point where $1.00 buys around 3 lira organs 132018 then us president donald trump imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum bank the currency crashes 20 percent but over the 12 months to that point the lira had already slumped 40 percent again rising on a graph pushing it into recession much of that has to do with consolidating power post attempted coup it's unnerved the investors at $6.00 lira to the dollar now then there are these unorthodox economic policies have been talking about march the
22nd of this year 2021 early one finds his 3rd central bank chief in 2 years this is because he raised interest rates to curb inflation which is currently at 16 percent about the right thing to do but the dollar is now buying $8.00 lira now the opposing argument to all of this is that turkey's economy actually grew close to 6 percent. during a pandemic making it and china one of only 2 nations in the g 20 to actually register growth but there's that inflation at 16 percent that i mentioned is the consumer inflation of 30 percent kind of wipes out all of those games as does turkey central bank having to spend an estimated $100000000000.00 defending the currency and as you see from our chart that has been an entirely losing battle so what next well i guess this week has been predicting a boom and bust cycle ending in a crash around the time of the 2023 presidential election he also rightly predicted
back in 2017 that with the turkish economy expanding faster than china's all would not end well which he didn't with us now and scott from london charlie robertson the global chief economist with renee sants capital charly good to have you with us tell me about this boom and bust cycles and what led you to that sort of pattern in conclusion in the 1st place we have a watching this happen over $1015.00 well actually maybe generations baby centuries but it's become something financial markets have got very. tries to overheat its economy with too much lending that widens out the current account deficit and then surely the currency crashes they have to hike interest rates lending stops and we had a bust what's been getting problematic for tell you a key is that this is been happening close. the gaps between these crashes have been happening well closely and the depth of the crashes has been even bigger and
apparently it's all going to come to a head in 2023 to coincide with the elections you still holding on to that belief as anything that's happened in the last well let's just say this year to change your view alter your view at all if anything i'm concerned is going to improve forward sucking the very central bank governor. the court appointed at the end of 2020 they've done a great job stabilizing the economy stabilizing the currency strengthening it in fact getting foreigners to put money back into turkey when he was got rid of just a few weeks ago the guarantee is that tech you will be cutting rates. should be that we are going to see another boom and market safe that tell you he's going to get better from here is is act of rock bottom so no post pandemic bounce the type of thing which a lot of countries are looking for open full. not as much of
a bounce especially on fortunately this 3rd wave we're seeing in so many countries is hitting tourism i thought we were going to get much better tourism figures this 2nd quarter of 2021 the numbers are going to be ready bad not helped by least half a 1000000 russians being banned from coming over the next 6 to 8 weeks thanks to this falling out between russia and turkey so it's looking tough yes there could still be a bounce we might still get another. as a result of the interest rate cuts this new governor will deliver some point we will get a bit of a perhaps in 20 twentieth's or followed by a bust and maybe late 4243 charlie in researching this and looking at turkey's economy particularly sensitive one it's been it's been all about international investors they've been so important to the country tell me why why are they so dependent i mean turkey is a big country it's got a big population i would think and you know maybe you can explain to us that it
could be a little more self-sufficient than it is yeah look it's and there are countries that have got their own energy resources of that help whether that's nuclear power fronts all or coal or wind electricity and so on in other countries turkey hasn't got up and they are building into a power stations not trying to do something to to reduce us so once you strip out the energy factor from their current account they've often been closer to balance than science in conscious but i think it's they it's the energy side of the stories being a problem the 2nd issue is they just haven't got enough f.d.r. foreign direct investment into manufacturing to give themselves the big export manufacturing base that a korea or taiwan has got and i think that's another factor which is and the difficulty is that one isn't helping here where you have this rapid boom bust
cycle. that scares investors away it doesn't tempt the men ok so we've got lower foreign investment we've got a currency that's in all sorts of trouble is there an opportunity here charlie is there an opportunity to rebalance the economy to get exports moving again to make lemonade when life gives you lemons absolutely that this should be the currency is the cheapest in emerging markets based on our bottle and we very rarely ever seen a currency in this shape and emerging markets relative to its own history in real terms so this is a fantastic opportunity to move away from the consumption model of bank lending driving up consumption driving up imports and then crushing and moving towards an export that investment led model which is work so well for asia and in 2890 when turkey had its terrible prices then i hoped i put in the risks on the good risk
scenario that that's what he would do but i just said leopards don't tend to change their spots and i suspect we're going to go back to the boom and bust and of course that that is what's happened so unfortunately yes it's a great opportunity for executives to change the model but. it's not happening and not the sacking of the central bank governor right so all of this then moves back to president himself the man who is leading all the big decisions what is his popularity really light these days because inflation is high unemployment is high but then when i looked at different popularity polls some was saying his popularity was at the highest it's been others were saying it's crashing to the floor and i guess that's where you want to believe at any point in time what's your take well he's only so much to fall over the session terrible economist and if he is the markets but a masterful politician and he has an ability to tap the issues which which helped deliver him electoral success least done so for 20 years however there is
a rising challenge now from opposition parties that is the new man as of old we stumble out of ankara who are potential challenges to him. and after 20 years you've got to say is this going to be a decent chance that people will. well vote for change finally but you know for some of the issues it doesn't matter so much inflation for example it doesn't matter so much if if you save it in gold and foreign currency and want to be very clever to do it and the last few years is to make sure that most of those saves are gold and foreign currency or realistic and those old inflation hedges so that the less although the inflation rate they've worked out a way of managing the runs economic policies that doesn't hurt middle class wealth so much so i suspect other problems going to be the bigger issue whether or not you
can actually deliver some real income growth over the next year or 2 charlie rose and so interesting talking to you about this thank you so much for your time thank you. to something completely different now liquefied natural gas mozambique and eisel let me explain ellen g. is seen as a transitional solution between oil and green renewables but the world is actually facing a shortage of supplies in the coming decades and here's one reason why mozambique had been expected to start churning out gas later this decade to partially fill the void now for a low income debt laden country that revenue would be very welcome and billions are being poured into infrastructure by foreign corporations to make that happen but here's the twist where the richest deposits are in the north there is a vicious insurgency linked to i saw thousands of gas workers mostly immigrants from more affluent nations barely escaped an onslaught last month while tens of
thousands of locals had to abandon their homes now with most communications still severed it is hard to gauge exactly what happened after insurgents hit the town of palma the local governor reported significant loss of life and infrastructure destroyed on the map we've got the on shore facilities there and then marked in yellow those extremely valuable offshore fields mozambican troops backed by south african mercenaries to 10 days to regain control of all that. so that's the background here is the analysis now with jasmine autumn and jasmine's in africa business risk and security analyst with the armed conflict location and event data project joining us from pretoria in south africa this week thank you so much for your time i want to sort of split this into the issue of insurgency and then the issue of natural gas in mozambique on the insurgency is mozambique capable of dealing with this or doesn't need more help i mean. well that was 30 years
there has been. started to. unit of the. the military simply do not have a man nor that opacity to be able to break them i mean we are seeing. and hearing now that their primary responsibility is back with the military they meet assistance beyond training. so that's the primary side the secondary was the. russian mercenaries who were brought in there was a south african advisory group brought in as well did they make a noticeable difference in terms of darkness that. might get there and the ground forces and the support they. must have rushed into. a tragic result some of them being ringback by friendly fire some of brain behavior and the doc it
buys you. also. had a situation of all odds against it was a mission they had to ingest the whole time weapons ammunition no permission from ground forces and i gather one. quarter 5. some things there i have the sky operation i had in back and wash up also during the above life tech that actually now they contact us and get i'm not even anymore in terms of training which leaves a back to your. guard who. is no integrated strategy at play did anyone else more wider afield offer any assistance the u.s. has got its own interests or was looking at investing this certainly france has got to want to get involved at all before i get to them i just want to say that they
are still a few mysteries running around him and he said this in reality round at this point in time needless to say with great opportunity that france merah the united states. during the race for it to match training is going to have little impact it is simply too short term so frons the dog has gone. silent mode is a basic skeleton. and i don't foresee him coming back and still government has proven that they can provide the security needed i can see that don't take up and running with the men makes about 218 months trust me just to say has an interest. and we all have seen in so how we want to be the dominant
force and. iraq if you cation able base so it's not going well at this level little the sort of response level to the insurgency and then below that you've got the issues to do with the actual gas exploration the fact that locals were relocated the fact that they didn't get much company. the governments in mozambique just get this wrong for their own people in the rush to explore and exploit all of the stats i'm going to use in a nutshell my 1st big knol game they were just me a band aid was organized crime and then i state this is a foreign great link to these remixed i'm not getting a root dominant but i want your us to understand this is not about i mean about you that he's angry we would have massive civil. case it either extremists or he said. let's get a rise in god and bees let me state he's trying to hijack it and the wish the media
as propagate it and give it a mistake this which they simply do not add within the insurgency at this point in time so then who's who which group is really in play here because there are reports and i know communications is not great from that area but they were reports of locals being attacked themselves which makes you start to wonder well who's really doing the attacking. at this point in time we set with a problem. that been present from the start as not. on our telegram over again that channel created a web you beat you know why he objects and what they want to do it removes about double that what if this. up on pricing of about $90000.00 about the 1000 gents supporting game. had year
and government same demand and do not want to see any full of mozambican government present gobble down garden and piracy. as the whole situation. just went up and tremendous to talk to you about this thank you for your time and for your expertise finally where does all our plastic electronic and toxic waste end up broadly speaking it gets thrown on a ship like this and sent to places like china indonesia and malaysia now china has made a push back and banned imports of rubbish but really asia has been a dumping ground for the industrialized world's castoffs for way too long here's a thought though what about these actual ships in some cases they have been sent to the scrap counts as well in bangladesh india and pakistan when the useful life is over they're sent to the so called ship breakers but even that now could be under
threat after a landmark ruling from a london court it said that a shipping company selling a vessel could oh a legal duty of care to the ship breaking work is in bangladesh maims hamid a begum whose husband fell to his death while working 183-0000 ton oil tanker on a beach in chittagong can now sued the shipping company moran u.k. in london. with us from london to talk about this is all of the holland is a partner of the u.k. based law firm leigh day which is representing the wife of that deceased work all of the thank you for your time honey to bake him tell us about what happened to her husband and how you came to be involved well have made a bag and a bangladeshi national who lives or lived in just the ground and in bangladesh with her husband kill mala who was a ship breaking work on the beach is that it was working in the zuma ship. when he did dismantling vessels like this vessel is the subject of this case
the act. when he 2018 he fell from his that fell from the ship and dies and then the well dismantling it. this resulted in. emitted by graham's life being pretty much torn apart. he was. so so. support. she was left with nothing along with the. village in order to survive. received very little compensation in bangladesh so she approached us. and asked for assistance so take me through the ruling then the idea that if and it's in this case as you say marin u.k. or if i had a ship and sold it on am i still responsible for it is there still
a duty of kate what happens with regards to after i sold it on well. the ship breaking industry as a whole. something like 80 percent of the world's supertankers to south asian beaches either in india pakistan bangladesh they are. where it's commonly known in the vessels will be dismantled in extremely unsafe and hazardous conditions just on the beaches with. a minimal protection also can causing significant environmental damage to the areas. this is a practice it's been going on for 2030 years with pretty much total impunity. when these vessels come to the end of their life they are effectively toxic waste. they contain extremely hazardous substances like a festival p.c.t.'s and other you know oils and other substances like that and
they're also extremely hard to dismantle in a safe way and the shipping companies shipping industry send these vessels to south asia to a great profit when they could send them to other countries where there are safer conditions that would result in memphis even less money so the basis of this case is the. given they know that this is what will happen that they know that there are no safe conditions in these be on these beaches that it's very likely that a was or workers will be injured or die when they dismantle these vessels and they send them that profit. in the knowledge that they should be held liable to things they roam. so it's a medley we want sorry to interrupt you ultimately we want the working conditions to improve that would be the the end game here does this case help push things in
that direction or actually could it end up benefiting you know all the unregistered similar facilities the work was getting pushed to them unregulated ones well we would hope that it would improve conditions you know if. if the the companies are sending best to south asia effectively in control of where they where they end up and if they insist on their working conditions in these sort of calls improve the working conditions so the power lies with the shipping companies know with that with the shipyards in them and that sense but what about the laws that they just not stringent enough in the 1st place you're saying about responsibility for the companies what about actual legal responsibility and rules that that govern the industry well absolutely i mean it's obviously there's a degree of response busy in bangladesh in there in pakistan as well.
make sure that there are sufficient regulations unfortunately there aren't. that of the something that needs to be addressed as well as ultimately if there is a desire. for shipping companies to send vessel to these areas then you know there will be. conditions for that so that. the power does laurie with with the shipping companies as well. it's not a story we hear a lot about so i'm glad we could talk to you about it all of the holland joining us from london thank you thank you. and that is our show for this week to get in touch with me want to know what you think what you want to see on the show you can tweet or d.m. me come on. use the hashtag you can see if you would please e-mail us what they counting the cost down to 0. and a small few online as well as al-jazeera dot com slash the thing that takes you straight to a page of individual sports and entire episodes to catch up on. that is it for this
edition of counting the cost on come on santa maria from the whole team thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera. it's a very bleak picture for a lot of americans out there white supremacy impacts all of our patients you're putting more money into the hands of some workers taking money out of the hands of other workers everyone goes to their camp and becomes a us versus them this is the deal about constraining your nuclear program the bottom line that they questions on out is they are the climate has changed every year for millions of years decades of talk but little action it's all about just facts create confusion to create smoke and mirrors the shocking truth about how the climate debate has been systematically subverted the oil industry was a main bankroller or opposition to climate action the campaign against the climate
do you think that's a bad thing to do it was fusion good thing absolutely. 0. be the hero the world needs. washing. this is al jazeera. hello i'm adrian from again this is that is our live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes. the global code 19 death toll tops 3000000 but it's rising fast as countries deal with spiraling cases and vaccination setbacks they include thailand where a 3rd wave traced to a nightlife district is risking plans to welcome back toward.