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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  April 18, 2021 6:30am-7:01am +03

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the put him in odds with modern britain at a time when the royal family has been struggling to retain relevance but for many prince philip has remained for more than 70 years a symbol of stability loyalty to his wife queen elizabeth and continuity in changing times parts of the very fabric of british identity we've barkha al-jazeera winds are. your top stories for you so far this half hour 3000000 people have died of cove in 1000 around the world though experts say the true number of deaths is likely to be much higher brazil has the highest daily death toll in the world just under $3002.00 have died in the past 24 hours and a new study is warning more babies and children are dying in brazil because of the virus international aid groups say prisons government is to blame for thousands of
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voidable deaths. people are this morning and they need help there is no national coordinated that fisi in the response to this but if they sort of messrs which we have seen working in not that it's like limiting. movements and activities waiting mosques physical. and increased hygiene measures i do not think. india is recording the fastest rising cases nearly 235000 infections were reported in yet another daily record on saturday variance 1st detected in the u.k. south africa and brazil as well as a double mutant strain of the virus are believed to be behind the recent increase there have been protests for a 7th straight nights in the u.s. state of minnesota against the police shooting of a 20 year old black man officer kim potter has been charged with 2nd degree manslaughter after fatally shooting dante right during a traffic stop. u.s.
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president joe biden is promising to raise the limit on the number of refugees a load into the u.s. he's backtracking on a decision to maintain a cap of $15000.00 per year as imposed by his predecessor donald trump the un's nuclear watchdog says iran is enriching uranium at 60 percent purity confirming earlier statements from tehran it comes as members of the 2050 nuclear deal continue efforts to revive the agreement in vienna was the former u.s. president mr trump pulled out of the e.u. and russia negotiators are positive about progress the head of the iranian delegations as talks are on the right track ukraine's expelling a russian diplomat after a ukrainian diplomat was detained instant petersburg russia accuses the diplomat of trying to obtain classified information ukraine rejects the allegations russian troops have been massing along the border with ukraine and you are right up to date with all the top stories so far today here on al-jazeera up next counting the cost more news in 30 minutes. we understand the differences
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and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter. how dissimilar bring you the news and current things that matter to you. how does iraq . hello i'm kemal son summary of this is counting the cost on al-jazeera weekly look at the world of business and economics this week turkey versus the markets from unconventional economics to the firing of central bank governors it all unsettled the international investors look at whether turkey's economy could be heading for a bust just in time for elections and 2023 also this week mozambique huge gas
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reserves big investors but also an insurgency that could end its route out of poverty and a court victory for the employees of south asia's ship breakers but could it also see the demise of the industry that scarred the beaches from bangladesh to pakistan . in just 2 years' time turkey will mark a 100 years since its inception as a modern republic and the man on the 100 lire note mustapha kemal ataturk was elected its 1st president but almost a century later and the man currently holding that office is finding himself in an uphill economic battle with elections not far away which up type of prime minister 2003 president from 2014 has always been an expansionist capitalizing on turkey's strategic position both geographically and politically i can 2011 when he announced a controversial plan to build the stand bull can now it would run parallel to the
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bosphorus now the problem is that renewed efforts to get that project moving again is open up a real can of worms there is a possible breach of a treaty that has kept the peace and the traffic flowing through the bosphorus to just who will pay for it given the states had to spend heavily on the pandemic its debts of sorts to $270000000000.00. but on top of that international investors have been losing faith and thora tarion rule and unconventional economics for the last few years maybe the simplest way for us to illustrate this is by using the turkish currency the lira as a barometer of confidence in the country economy and the president's so what you're looking at starts in 2003 on the far left it goes all the way up to today and remember to keep this in mind when we talk about a currency weakening against the dollar we actually see it rising in value i know it looks odd but trust me this is not a good reflection on the corner me rising is bad so here we go 1st decade in power
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2003 to 2013 ish strong growth thanks to all that investment in infrastructure generate well received by the international investors the currency is strong. then we have what turns out to be a key moment or at least a turning point july the 15th of 2016 the failed coup attempt and surprisingly the currency drops rising on a graph to the point where $1.00 buys around 3 lira organs $132018.00 and then u.s. president donald trump imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum bank the currency crashes 20 percent but over the 12 months to that point the lira had already slumped 40 percent again rising on a graph pushing it into recession much of that has to do with consolidating power post attempted coup it's unnerved the investors at $6.00 lira to the dollar now then there are these unorthodox economic policies have been talking about march the
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22nd of this year 2021 early one fires his 3rd central bank chief in 2 years this is because he raised interest rates to curb inflation which is currently at 16 percent about the right thing to do but the dollar is now buying $8.00 lira now the opposing argument to all of this is that turkey's economy actually grew close to 6 percent during a pandemic making it and china one of only 2 nations in the g 20 to actually register growth but there's that inflation at 16 percent that i mentioned is the consumer inflation at 30 percent kind of wipes out all of those games as does turkey central bank having to spend an estimated $100000000000.00 defending the currency and as you see from our chart that has been an entirely losing battle so what next well i guess this week has been predicting a boom and bust cycle ending in a crash around the time of the 2023 presidential election he also rightly predicted
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back in 2017 that with the turkish economy expanding faster than china's all would not end well which he didn't with us now and scott from london charlie robertson the global chief economist with renascence capital charlie good. have you with us tell me about this boom and bust cycles and what led you to that sort of pattern in conclusion in the 1st place we have a watching this happen over 1015 well actually maybe generations maybe even centuries and but it's become something financial markets have got very history that turkey tries to overheat its economy with too much lending that widens out the current account deficit i ventured the currency crashes they have to hike interest rates lending stops and we had a bust what's been getting problematic for tell you key is that this is been happening closer to the gaps between these crashes have been happening well closely
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and the depth of the crashes has been even bigger and apparently it's all going to come to a head in 2023 to coincide with the elections you still holding on to that belief as anything that's happened in the last well that's just to say this year to change your view alter your view at all if anything i'm concerned is going to be proof forward sucking the very central bank governor to court appointed at the end of 2020 they've done a great job stabilizing the economy stabilizing the currency strengthening it in fact getting foreigners to put money back into turkey when he was got rid of just a few weeks ago the guarantee is that tech you will be cutting rates here than it should be that we are going to see another boom and market faith that that is going to get better from here is is act of rock bottom so no post pandemic bounce the type of thing which a lot of countries are looking for open for. not as much of
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a bounce especially on fortunately this 3rd wave we're seeing in so many countries is hitting tourism i thought we were going to get much better tourism figures this 2nd quarter of 2021 the numbers are going to be ready bad not helped by least half a 1000000 russians being banned from coming over the next 6 to 8 weeks thanks this forward now to russia and turkey again so it's looking tough yes there could still be a bounce we might still get another. as a result of the interest rate cuts this new governor will deliver some point we will get a bit of a better perhaps in 20 twentieth's or followed by a bust and maybe late 4243 charlie in researching this and looking at turkey's economy particularly sensitive one it's been it's been all about international investors they've been so important to the country tell me why why are they so dependent i mean turkey is a big country it's got a big population i would think and you know maybe you can explain to us that it
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could be a little more self-sufficient than it is yeah look it's and there are countries that have got their own energy resources of that help whether that's nuclear power fronts all or coal or wind electricity and so on in other countries turkey hasn't got up and they are building into a power stations not trying to do something to to reduce us so once you strip out the energy factor from their current account they've often been closer to balance than science in conscious but i think it's they it's the energy side of the stories being a problem the 2nd issue is they just haven't got enough f.d.r. foreign direct investment into manufacturing to give themselves the big export manufacturing base that are korea or taiwan has got and i think that's another factor which is and the difficulties ahead one isn't helping here where you have this rapid boom bust cycle. that scares investors away it doesn't tempt the men ok
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so we've got lower foreign investment we've got a currency that's in all sorts of trouble is there an opportunity here charlie is there an opportunity to rebalance the economy to get exports moving again to make lemonade when life gives you lemons absolutely that there should be the currency is the cheapest in emerging markets based on our bottle and we very rarely ever seen a currency in this shape and emerging markets relative to its own history in real terms so this is a fantastic opportunity to move away from the consumption model of bank lending driving up consumption driving up imports and then crashing and moving towards an export that investment that model would just work so well for asia and in 2890 when tech you had this terrible crisis then i hoped i put in the risks on the good risk
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scenario that that's what he would do but i just said leopards don't tend to change their spots and i suspect we're going to go back to the boom and bust and of course that that is what's happened so unfortunately yes it's a great opportunity for executives to change the model but. it's not happening and not the sacking of the central bank governor was right so all of this then moves back to president himself the man who is leading all the big decisions what is his popularity really light these days because inflation is high unemployment is high but then when i looked at different popularity polls some was saying his popularity was at the highest it's been others were saying it's crashing to the floor and i guess that's where you want to believe at any point in time what's your take well he's a he's a monster full of accession terrible economist and the view is that markets but a masterful politician and he has an ability to tap the issues which which help deliver him electoral success and is done so for 20 years however there is
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a rising challenge now from opposition parties that is the new man as of old we stumble out of i'm korea who are potential challenges to him. and after 20 years you've got to say is this going to be a decent chance that people will. well vote for change finally but you know for some of the issues it doesn't matter so much inflation for example it doesn't matter so much if if you save it in gold and foreign currency and want to actually be very clever to do it and the last few years is to make sure that most of those saves are in gold and foreign currency or realistic and those old inflation hedges so that the less although doubt the inflation rate they've worked out a way of managing the runs economic policies that doesn't hurt middle class wealth so much so i suspect other problems going to be the bigger issue. you can
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actually deliver some real income growth over the next year or 2 charlie rose and so interesting talking to you about this thank you so much for your time thank you . to something completely different now liquefied natural gas mozambique and eisel let me explain ellen g. is seen as a transitional solution between oil and green renewables but the world is actually facing a shortage of supplies in the coming decades and here's one reason why mozambique had been expected to start churning out gas later this decade to partially fill the void now for a low income debt laden country that revenue would be very welcome and billions are being poured into infrastructure by foreign corporations to make that happen but here's the twist where the richest deposits are in the north there is a vicious insurgency linked to i saw thousands of gas workers mostly immigrants from more affluent nations barely escaped an onslaught last month while tens of
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thousands of locals had to abandon their homes now with most communications still severed it is hard to gauge exactly what happened after insurgents hit the town of palma the local governor reported significant loss of life and infrastructure destroyed on the map we've got the on shore facilities there and then marked in yellow those extremely valuable offshore fields mozambican troops backed by south african mercenaries to 10 days to regain control of all that. so that's the background here is the analysis now with jasmine autumn and jasmine's in africa business risk and security analyst with the armed conflict location and event data project joining us from pretoria in south africa this week thank you so much for your time i want to sort of split this into the issue of insurgency and then the issue of natural gas in mozambique on the insurgency is mozambique capable of dealing with this what doesn't need more help and he. was 30 years
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there has been. started to. change a unit of the. the military simply do not have a man nor that opacity to be able to break them i mean we are seeing. and hearing now that their primary responsibility is back with the military they meet assistance beyond training so that's the primary side the secondary was the you know russian mercenaries who were brought in there was some african advisory group brought in as well did they make a noticeable difference in terms of darkness that. might get there the ground forces and the support they. must have rushed into. a tragic result of some of them by friendly fire some of brain behavior and the doc it buys you.
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also. had a situation of all odds against it was a mission they had to ingest the whole time weapons ammunition no progression from ground forces and i gather one. quarter 5. some things that i have the sky operation i had in back and wash up also during the above live act that actually now they contact us and get i'm not even any more intensive training which leaves a back to your. god who. is no great strategy at play did anyone else more wider afield offer any assistance the u.s. has got on interests or was looking at investing this certainly france has got to that they want to get involved at all before i get to them i just want to say that
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they are still a few mysteries running around him and he said this in reacting round at this point in time needless to say with great opportunity that france merah the united states. doesn't dream but race for it to match training is going to have little impact it is simply too short term so frons dodaro has gone. silent mode is a basic skeleton. and i don't foresee him coming back and still government has proven that they can provide the security needed i can see that don't pick up and running with the men makes about 218 months trust me just to say has an interest. and we all have seen in so how we want to be the dominant
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force and. iraq if you cation able base so it's not going well at this level little the sort of response levels of the insurgency and then below that you've got the issues to do with the actual gas exploration the fact that locals were relocated the fact that i didn't get much company. the governments in mozambique just get this wrong for their own people in the rush to explore and exploit all of the stats i'm going to use in a nutshell my 1st big knol game they were just me at band aid was organized crime and then i think this is a barn great link to these remixed i'm not that meting at the local root aka dominant but i want your us to understand this is not about i mean about you that he's angry we would have massive civil. case it either extremists or he said. let's get a rise in god and bees let me state he's trying to hijack it and they waste their
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media as propagate it and give him a mistake this which they simply do not have with insurgency at this point in time so then who will which group is really in play here because there are reports and i know communications is not great from that area but they were reports of locals being attacked themselves which makes you start to wonder well who's really doing the attacking. at this point in time we set with a problem. that been present from the start as not. on our telegram up again that channel created a web you begin why he objects and what they want to do it removes about double that what if this. up on privacy or about 90000 about the 1000 gens supporting game. have
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a year and government shame demand and do not want to see any full of mozambican government present gobble down garden and piracy. as the whole situation. just went off and tremendous to talk to you about this thank you for your time and for your expertise finally where does all our plastic electronic and toxic waste end up broadly speaking it gets drawn on a ship like this and sent to places like china indonesia and malaysia now china has made a push back and banned imports of rubbish but really asia has been a dumping ground for the industrialized world's castoffs for way too long here's a thought though what about these actual ships in some cases they have been sent to the scrap yards as well in bangladesh india and pakistan when their useful life is over they're sent to the so called ship breakers but even that now could be under
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threat after a landmark ruling from a london court it said that a shipping company selling a vessel could oh a legal duty of care to the ship breaking work is in bangladesh maims hamid a begum whose husband fell to his death while working 183-0000 ton oil tanker on a beach in chittagong can now sued the shipping company moran u.k. in london. with us from london to talk about this is all of the holland is a partner of the u.k. based law firm leigh day which is representing the wife of that deceased work all of the thank you for your time honey to bake him tell us about what happened to her husband and how you came to be involved well have made a bag and a bangladeshi national who lives or lived in just the ground and in bangladesh with her husband kill mala who was a ship breaking away on the beaches he was working in the zuma ship. when he did dismantling vessels like this vessel is
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a subject of this case the act. when he 2018 he fell from things that fell from the ship and dies instantly while dismantling it. this resulted in. lawton made a bag of life being pretty much torn apart. he was. so. supportive and. she was left with nothing along with. her. in the village and they know that. received very little compensation in bangladesh so she approached us. and out for us distance so take me through the ruling bay and the idea that a and it's in this case the same errand u.k. or if i had a ship and sold it on am i still responsible for it is there still
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a duty of care what happens with regards to after i filled it on well. the ship breaking industry as a whole. something like 80 percent of the world's supertankers to south asian beaches either in india. and they are. where it's commonly known and vessels will be to some so an extremely unsafe and hazardous conditions just on the beaches with. minimal protection also concluding significant environmental damage to the areas. this is a problem has been going on 20 says he is with pretty much tyson impunity. when these vessels comes into their life they are effectively toxic waste. they contain extremely hazardous substances like a sessile the c.p.s.
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and of the you know oils and other substances up and they're also extremely hard to dismantle in a safe way and the shipping companies shipping industry send these vessels to south asia great profit when they could send them to other countries where there are safer conditions that would result in them receiving less money so the basis of this case is that. given they know that this is what will happen that they know that there are no safe conditions in these be on these beaches that it's very likely that a worker or workers will be injured or die when they dismantle these vessels and they send them that profit. in the knowledge that they should be held liable to things they roam. we want to interrupt you ultimately we want the working conditions to improve that would be the the end game here does
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this case help push things in that direction or actually could it end up benefiting you know all the unregistered similar facilities at the work was getting pushed to them unregulated ones well we would hope that it would improve conditions you know if it's the the company's ascending vessel to south asia effectively in control of where they where they end up and if they insist on conditions in these yeah then they all sort of calls improve the working conditions so the power lies with the shipping companies know was that with the shipyards in them and that sense but what about the lawyers that i just not stringent enough in the 1st place you're saying about responsibility for the companies what about actual legal responsibility and rules that that that govern the industry well absolutely yeah i mean it's obviously there's a degree of response busy and in bangladesh and in there in pakistan as well.
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make sure that there is sufficient regulation unfortunately there aren't. that of the something that needs to be addressed as well as ultimately if there is a desire. for shipping companies to send vessel to these areas then you know there will be. conditions for the. powders laurie with with the shipping companies as well. it's not a story we hear a lot about so i'm glad we could talk to you about it all of the holland joining us from london thank you thank you. that is our show for this week to get in touch with me want to know what you think what you want to see on the show you can tweet or d.m. me at ha ha use the hash tag a j c and see if you would please e-mail us well as they're counting the cost down to 0. and the small few online as well about 0 com slash that takes you straight to our page individual reports links and entire episodes for you to catch up on. that
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is it for this edition of counting the cost time to mull santa maria from the whole team thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera is. 3 year investigation into the pro-gun lobby i've been in florida is making it you got to really go under. reveal secrets see what. sitting out there i mean people out there you know. and connections some don't want exponents many in legacy media. last shooting. like night al-jazeera investigations how to sell a massacre on al-jazeera. frank assessments there are a lot of poison but the government needs to watch what exactly happened and what measures are now taking for a situation like i'm not to be ever again informed opinion is the us with thinking
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military positioning in the middle east or is it just a simple act of we're going to is it ministry us that this is a message to the router the united states is are rethinking its military posture in-depth analysis of the day school ople headlines inside story. covered 19 deaths past 3000000 globally and a study in brazil is warning the virus is killing more babies and children. and again i'm peter w. watching al-jazeera live from doha also coming up after a public outcry president joe biden confirms he will raise his predecessor's low cap on the number of refugees.


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