tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg January 29, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EST
mark: i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. with all respect to caucus-goers him up away your phones, stop texting candidates, and experience the caucus, for god sakes. ♪ john: we are here again bloomberg politics mission control at downtown des moines marriott. roughly 72 hours before iowans kick off the 2016 election season. today, a dozen residential candidates stand out against the
cornfield in every corner of the state. -- not counting the army of surrogates. do point, rapids to it was a day of rallies. you stand up and fight for me, i will fight for you as hard as i can. >> the 20th century was not just as good, it was a new american century. >> i am going to go all the way. >> when i sit in the chair of the oval office for the first time january 15, i will spin around because you may be president. christie: yes, we can transform this country and we have the potential of all this great country has. sanders: if you are looking for someone that has a background for people, i hope you will caucus for me at 7:00 p.m. on monday.
i will not let you down. john: 1300 miles away, donald trump had his postdebate analysis in new hampshire. he called his decision to skip the foxnews debate in des moines in favor of his own veteran-focused debate a huge success. he raised $6 million for veterans. he also had sharp words for his principal rival, senator ted cruz. trump: cruz is in second place, he got pummeled. he got pummeled. and you know, they did not even mention he was born in canada, right? when you are born in canada, you are not supposed to be running for president of united a. prime minister, no problem. ted cruz might be a citizen, but he is an anchor baby. he is an anchor baby in canada.
the canada does not accept anchor babies. john: my question for you is, ,ith this alternative shindig it in the rearview mirror, is the clear from paying any costs for skipping the foxnews debate? mark: every instinct i have, every instinct trump has is this did not hurt him. it may have even helped him and allowed him to enter the final weekend without any damage from the debate and suffered a huge which is strength, what got him to this day, front runner for the republican nominee. john: it seemed they were all disoriented and weirded out that trump was not on stage with them. got used to debating with him there, he was suddenly gone. it was like the sun was gone. physical law was revoked. jeb bush performed well, but anyone else did nothing to gain
and anyway except for trump jokes. mark: he was in the new , showing areas today he can do well in iowa. when he comes to a place, he draws such a big crowds. he does not need to go city by town, -- city by city, town by town. john: he overstated the case when he stated crews got pummeled. got pummeled. i don't think anyone suffered a measurable gain. jeb bush was strong, but there is a weird paradox. jeb bush was actually sort of weak. mark: it also allows jeb a chance to get a look, which is what he needs to get cut to come back -- to get to come back. marco rubio and ted cruz have been trying to draw contrast with each other throughout the race, but one thing they are areeing on, both campaigns
downplaying marco rubio's chances on caucus night. polls, his staff success him not to come in first or second -- expects him not to come in first or second place. cruz's campaign manager thinks marco rubio will place a distant third. what do you think will happen on monday? margin? or a healthy >> a margin of error. >> used expect rubio to be a close third? -- do you expect rubio to be a close third? >> four or five points. mark: that is a funny face. you have a strange situation where market review and ted cruz have the same situation, do not look for a marco rubio search. john: the escalation for rubio
is a simple one. -- expectation for rubio is a simple one. they do not want to think he has a chance for second place. her ted cruz it is more complicated. slipping, and of they want to bolster themselves for being in the top two. not give themselves a chance of weakness. mark: the perception is trump is holding firm, rubio maybe moving up. is ted cruz somehow flipping, as you said? they want the campaign to be fine. firingn't want to be supporters. we all believe marco rubio will be third or fourth. the other establishment campaign -- and the really big question besides trump and ted cruz is, what does marco rubio need to do on caucus night to be a part of the story out here?
does a third-place finish mean anything if it is not close to second-place? marcothere is no question rubio people started to freak out when people not in the immediate orbit, but on the outer ring, the donor community started to get possible excitement. the campaign, we will not talk about this. turning to the democratic race now, we are headed into the final weekend before the caucuses, the obama ministration officials said that hillary clinton's home server contains that were designated top-secret. the response, clinton spokesman brian fallon said it was overclassification run a must, and based it on an inter-agency dispute. serious, both legally and lyrically, is this new -- politically, is this new
revelation? mark: this level of classic fiction -- classification shows carelessness on their part. , it should have known probably should have been disturbed to that way. as a political matter it is horrible for anyone that cares about this is you. polls have shown democratic voters do not care. was a confluence of a sanders victory in iowa and the e-mail problem, looking like a problem. they are worried she may face legal deputy -- legal jeopardy. we saw yesterday that the sanders-clinton fight has gotten a little more negative. there was a time when sanders was trying to take the high road, when he said no one wanted to hear about your damn e-mails anymore.
a sanders wins here as we get little further along, sanders is going to start to raise the issue. he will say we have to think about this because it stories like this -- he wants to make the electability argument. he will start to talk about it if this continues. mark: you can look at the clinton body language. , somewhatly are uncomfortable with this thing as a legal matter. several times they have characterized publicly with the justice department -- which i always thought was weird for them to do, because they should know about it -- they are having trouble characterizing this now in light of the revelation. john: you were talking this morning about this issue, how serious it is. from your sense, were clinton people happy to hear that stuff on tv? mark: even before the public revelation of the e-mails, they are concerned. they recognize this is a new phase of the potential problem. up next, we have a sneak peek of sunday's episode of the circus,
>> thank you, mr. cruz. thank you for all of the details in the state of texas. bringing them all the way to the white house. >> thank you, thank you very much. >> how are you doing sir, god bless you. another clip from the episode, bernie sanders following to iowa state university in ames. >> ernie, bernie. it is amazing. that my bernie, watch him go. that is my bernie, watch them go. ♪
who is ready to see bernie today? [applause] sanders: it is not just about electing a president, that is important. -- but what is more important is transforming the united states of america. young people will come out to meetings, students will go to rallies, maybe they will volunteer. but when it counts on election they are february 1, not going to show up. let's make those pundits eat those words. [applause] ♪ what we are doing in this episode is trying to show people who are not on the ground in iowa what it is like.
the apologists is exciting, but as we get closer, tend to tense up. john: there is a famous phrase of george herbert walker bush try to describe the circumstances, and it is happening all over iowa. we have got to capture the sense we have seen over the few days we have been here. , trying to collected project that but actually being a little on edge. showtime sunday night at 8:00 p.m. eastern. you can check in with bloomberg politics tomorrow. do not miss that i will pull announcement. we will stream it live. it will be on bloomberg politics.com at 6:30 eastern tomorrow night. all of the numbers from that important poll great, what does hillary clinton's campaign manager worry about? we will ask him right after this. ♪
♪ about monday? >> i am, very. >> are you nervous are excited? john: that was hillary clinton after a campaign rally here in -- moines, for campus caucus-goers. got some selfies. some breaking news, priorities usa supporting clinton three it will raise $55 million through january. that brings us to it total of $92 million today. we caught up with clinton robbie and asked what he had learned from the loss in iowa in 2008 and what he's
feeling on the home stretch. you are a campaign guy, you are not like a business guy. what happened in the last 72 hours of an election? volunteers, that is their show now. we are just here to support them. a lot of focus going out to the doors, having face-to-face conversations because we know who our supporters are. we need to get them out to caucus and remind them. john: i focus somewhat on the ground, you guys versus sanders. how do you feel about the field operations? >> i can rate hours. john: relative rating. >> i feel really good about this. we started back in april. we have had lots of staff out here. what really matters is the relationships they build with our volunteers and the leadership we develop amongst
our volunteers. that is what we really care about because the staff aren't the ones on the field, so to speak on caucus night. it is the captains and the volunteers supporting them. it is about the list of supporters we build that we can reminded to turn out. so i feel fantastic. i have never seen anything like this. i would say my most inspiring moments, hours on the campaign are when i'm in the room with the captains, the energy, the enthusiasm they have in the commitments. these are people who are getting dozens of hours a week in many cases, and they are doing it because they care. that is inspiring. john: what is the role of your candidate and your candidate's spouse in the last few days? >> i think for both of them, it is explained to people why they should pick secretary clinton. you heard her talking about why she is going to be the best choice not only on the democratic field but against the republicans as well. linton hassident
done a brilliant job talking about her record of accomplishment, had he has created change over the last few decades, how she can produce real results for people. he is the biographer in chief, so to speak, on the campaign. for the rest of us it is about rallying our folks and reminding them when and where there is a caucus. john: with the difference between this and 2008, that was bedeviled by many problems. how cautiously are you trying to do something differently? campaign has challenges, we have had our share on this campaign. john: here in iowa. >> we made a focus from day one we would be humble, hard-working, and fight for every single vote. we knew this would be close. that is a good thing. we leaned into that, in brace to that. we build relationships with those volunteers and worked with them to build a coalition of people in every precinct to turn
out. that has been our priority each and every day in how we build spendsents, how she her time. that organization has helped us. john: you are. you must have looked at 2008 and not, how did it fall short, what can we do differently? how is it new this time. ? >> is dangerous to make too many -- it is too dangerous to make too many comparisons. there are fewer candidates this time. i think it is focusing on the fundamentals, working hard and building those relationships. i have obviously drawn on some of the lessons i learned from 2008. i did a caucus when i was not here, i was in nevada. the importance of that leadership in the caucus room. you cannot make that up. you have to develop that over time. that might be a difference.
different race, different year. technology has changed. i have met the staff and observed at events. i never seen as impressive as group of young people. they are incredibly well trained. you have spent a lot of time with them. young idealistic people. what keeps you -- john: what keeps you up? what do you worry could go wrong? >> the things you know you can control, but there are also things that you cannot control. john: are you worried about the weather, a mistake by the candidate? if i were you, it could be the enthusiasm that the other sanders,s, senator they might be bigger. did you worry about that? >> more than anything, i worry that our supporters don't think it matters whether they turn out or not and that their choice doesn't really matter. is apeople think a caucus
free pass, we get to turn it for whomever we want. or if we want. our people need to understand it will be close and they have got to stand up. john: so the iowa poll comes out. what do you hope that shows on saturday? what you hope it shows? >> i hope it shows a very close race. john: you want to be a little ahead though. >> of course. john: maybe a two-point lead. >> i want people to understand how close this is. these falls aren't always accurate. polls aren't always accurate. i want to show the momentum we have going in. i been around a lot of these events last couple of months. the statements are bigger, they are more rocking.
more unifiform. she is performing at a high level, but there is a different scale. >> more manhattan, more brooklyn. john: does that not freak you out a little bit? that reflect the kind of enthusiasm that could be automatic at the caucus? >> every candidate has a different vibe. i am looking at the metric that shows how many supporters we have, how many captains are trained, how many people we are talking to at the doors. some of our folks are working all day and they can't come to events like this. others have childcare in the evening and they can't come to the events. i don't want to read too much into feelings, i want to see the things i know. need to tell people my last name is blank, rhymes with blank. the truth, it is supposed to
be mook rhyming with book. john: like dick cheney. k because theyo don't get it. you can say it either way. we can get away with it. >> you can get away with either one. john: that is cheating. >> my dad says mook always, but people asked to spell it out. so if you lose on monday night, what happens next? john: don't just say new hampshire. >> we built a multitiered strategy, we started working in the summer. we got the first four states set up, and then we started to talk about what was next.
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campaign manager. we talked about the final stretch of the campaign, including starting out with, just what, donald trump. i think there will be record turnout. >> 121,000 is the record. there will be 21% over that, 15% over that. there are only a few ways you know, and that is to call people on the phone and ask them. you have been told you have a grassroots organization, your candidate fits that. if trump one, how would that link? jeff roe: by what? mark: 2.3. jeff roe: and what did then carson get? carson. guide who is barely on
media, has a personal life separate from a lot of the election leaders, how do you explain that? question.it is a good i got to the rest of the board. we have stuff that makes a little bit of news today, and on sunday we'll announce and have nearly $19 million in the bank. , bet that is probably potentially $10 million more than anyone else has in the bank. the reason conservatives -- for an alternative trump, they have to go along way with him. mark: when your people are making the case with some of between ted cruz and trump, what is the argument? jeff roe: any trump is probably a waste of a vote area. mark: i talked to a person that
was a ted cruz supporter but dropped out because of speculation he was born in canada. my question was -- believe -- my question was, what are you telling people were worried about that in order to keep them in the poll? jeff roe: that is a tough question. data --had, in our own since we begin the modeling --cess, we certainly have now our numbers, the overall numbers. let's say our number is 114%. 114% of the vote. we have grown a little bit from the watermark. we've certainly lost some people and replaced others. we have lost people, but we replace them at a higher rate. this will overlap probably not as much as people think.
diagramlook at our venn that we sure votes with, it is --h more lateral, overlapping with trump, much less with carson. there is a bit of an interest of their, who they endorsed. in a sense. iowa,other newspaper in every single other newspaper in iowa for the muscatine journal to the cloud city paid in -- paper had the spar on immigration. that is a great headline for us. every minute that we could be on the stage talking about immigration with marco rubio is a wonderful day. we are set up a little bit differently. you try to get your volunteers to speak for 30 seconds or less so you can pound through calls. this campaign, we are trying to have a conversation.
we like to do 30 minutes or longer. we have had this conversations. the conversion rate is very good. it is better than all of the candidates, particularly marco rubio. mark: now we have a guy that hosted the breakfast. he is not a very well-known guy, even as he is the campaign manager for one of the top candidates. i found him stunning. know,ould people like to to explain where they think this thing stance? stands? guest: campaigns often produce new people. may be a rockstar star as far as a manager is concerned. he has more data than any other campaign manager. we know our work, we know our people, and even if there is a normal turnout, even a good normal turnout, we feel in shape. produces hordes
of new caucus-goers, that might produce a different result. in talking about the data, they really fine-tune it more than any i have seen before. and sevenere are 2800 -- 2807 people. there are 3000 between us and 3900 between us and donald trump. roe iso not think jeff the answer. they have invested $400 million in that kind of data. we will see if it pays off. would you get a sense whether -- this is a two-person race for a long time. do you feel a key tips his hand -- given the level of precision and where they will place one into? guest: i think they are
cautiously optimistic. .t does go to who comes out he said there were 151,000 iowa voters that have not voted in a caucus before. if he get one and 40,000 people voting, or even 121,000, that is a good night for donald trump, more like 120 5000, 100 30,000. you might even give ted cruz a slight edge. mark: his boss said in his private meeting, if trump one, he could win the table. resources in the organization to march in against trump no matter what. guest: on the point of resources, they are right. they have $19 million in the bank, and the super pac's have a lot more. i did not find him as convincing. if trump wins and in new hampshire, i agree they can go on the march, but they will not be able to out position trump. mark: thank you.
♪ less that we had an exciting night because i did something unusual. the fact that i said it, and we have a very good relationship with fox, but when someone does not treat you properly, you got to be tough, you've got to be strong. do not let them push you around. and that, that goes for the country. i did something that was very risky, and i think it turned out good. i am getting more publicity than if i -- you know? i don't know. john: that was donald trump at
his rally in new hampshire. thatillion people watched debate, including our next three guests. thank you for coming in. tell me what you thought about last night. just a quick go around. trump win, trump lose? him, soe talking about i would say he won. he controls the market from. he got -- microphone. he got to talk about what he wanted rather than ask questions. john: any love for him? jana.hink -- i agree with he dominates anything he does. that is because we let that happen. we focus on him wherever he goes. he is a big story, he knows how to use the media effectively. but you have to wonder whether will be some iowa voters that
say that was a little high-handed, we prefer candidates who were a little more humble. that has not stopped him in any way up until now, but there is still possibility that could cause trouble. john: tie-breaker? >> i think he went for the long haul. you could think of trump dominating in the news, a pretty strong position. mark: every time you come here, we lavish you with praise because you are handling this well. you are still learning new stuff because he is the new kid. what did you learn about trump based on the events. ? >> was talking about money. this is one measure where he did not have to kampeter -- compete with the other candidates. he does not have a super pac. .e is taking all donations mark: people send them in and he funds the check. >> to his campaign.
he was able to stand on the hours,nd say, within 24 he collected $6 million. look at the connections he has. look at how he is able to do this. that was the first time i saw him kind of gloating about his ability to bring in money. rolex, ands a good if he had a super pac, he could raise money if you tried. -- if he tried. when we talked about earlier, trump is not a typical candidate in any way. john: no way. mark: if you look at ted cruz, we talked about with jeff roe, they have been organized for months. iowa electors, if trump wins, how will he have done it? he will have done it by what we are talking about here, the ability to dominate mass
communications in a political way that no one has been able to do before. we have never seen a candidate that has the kind of stills and understanding of modern media that this candidate has. he communicates directly, he connects directly. he knows how to create excitement and interest and outrage and all of the other things that draw attention to him. if he wins, it will be because of that. mark: not to press the point, but i will go anyway. you talked to a lot of presidential candidates. would you say no one has ever been as good at those skills in either party? >> it is hard to make a parison. we think of ronald reagan as a good communicator, which he was. to mitigate and technology of the 1980's was fundamentally different than it is today. age,e in the modern media who communicate as effectively as donald trump. know the end of the story, we cannot draw a final conclusion.
the people we have seen over the last of cycles, clearly he has mastered it in a way no one else has. john: you were a civilian last night? >> right. the stood out to me without two candidates are using these methods to communicate, which stood out so much about trump. his primal dominance, the idea that, i am a strong man are you i am not only bringing other candidates on states to my event, to stand before my time, but i am also being mean to the fox people and reordering the political structure. he is the strength to change things where it ordinary politician would not. then you look at ted cruz's manager, the method ted cruz is conservativeso period. this is the way to fix the problem areas it is not necessarily wrong -- raw brute strength, it is politics.
this is a fascinating thing we are seeing materialize in iowa. john: even kind of its not competing in iowa -- even candidates not competing in iowa -- what does this say about trump? >> he says he will win iowa, he will be disappointed if he does not win iowa. if he does not do well, it is not the end of the world. he wants to do well in new hampshire, he wants to do well in south carolina. next week, he will be in arkansas for a rally. they have a march 1 primary. is a long game. john: he is a traveler with a large base. thank you guys for coming in. coming up, more meetings and pressing. bloomberg politics colleagues have some reports. after this. ♪
♪ mark: joining us now, three members of the bloomberg m. itics tea thank you for stepping into the set. margaret, you see how pricing to are keeping spouses their own schedule. most of them are loosely -- largely doing events with their spouses. especially bill clinton. >> she think this is important in keeping her energized, and folks love bill clinton. they are going to join forces for the weekend, and with
chelsea and get younger people excited. americansn -- remembered bill clinton as a really strong modern residence. iowa is not the core of what made bill clinton great. it cannot hurt though. he remains popular. donald trump also bringing his family out. how does that work? the trump family have a major political asset? >> i think that trump campaign feels they can characterize, when he was with reporters , sportsmanre hunting community in iowa. it is a contrast between how donald trump campaigns and prefers to use massive rallies filled with thousands of people versus the more traditional retail politics.
john: we have seen marco rubio move up in the polls. after making much less of an investment over time then jeb bush and chris christie, both had higher campaigns that rubio would finish ahead of them -- how are the review of folks feeling now? >> they are playing very well and very carefully. a third-place view would be a victory. would be the establishment candidate vote and do well in new hampshire. the downside is the giuliani strategy. they would not fade out, and right now they are not as if to win new hampshire -- they are not positioned to win new hampshire. margaret, with bernie this hillary clinton e-mail pop-up, you think
they will have momentum at the end, given the strong clinton operation here? >> they hope they will get it. bernie sanders is tricky because he has made a big deal saying he is not going negative. he will rely on republicans going negative. this will be a freebie and he can rise against this, whether she becomes the bait. the goldmanu see sachs add the did not mention the hillary clinton name? polling all this time. in only reason he had that the beginning was the anti-wall street sentiment. it is such a tight contest. john: a lot of people with trump see the super mega rallies. to makee is he doing sure he does well or wins here?
>> we are trying to get out the vote. that is the biggest misnomer, they are not being taken seriously as far as grassroots outreach. they have these volunteers and caucus organizers, they are theg to be able to get to caucuses and convince these first-time voters to get to the caucuses and turnout for them. they say quite frankly, these are the type of people who you do not want to lose an argument with. they are fired up. he met in yourself in a caucus room with donald trump supporters. he can be convincing if you look at the ballots. john: we talk about that ted dynamic, doesump it matter in any way for the rollicking raise who finishes first, who finishes second monday night? >> it does. it would show ted cruz's
strength. donald trump is way up in new hampshire and virtually every state. ted cruz would have to win here. if he cannot win, the question is where can he beat donald trump? the biggest misnomer about this republican primary, the idea of -- thereas give seen idea of lanes. is in the moderate lane and dominating. ted cruz is in the conservative lane. the theory is to get everyone out, you will win the moderate. little time left, we have competitive races on both sides. we sometimes look at our laptops and phones. does this seem crazy, intense, insane to you, or is it just an election? >> people expected. 20,008 --was here in
2008, it was like this. everyone was surprised when it happened, even though it did happen. marketf you into a super in 2008, and you into a movie, anywhere you went, you knew the caucuses were going on. this time, it people are not talking about it. suggest turnout might not be as monstrous. it suggests turnout might not be as monstrous. >> but people are talking about donald trump. >> new voter registration has not gone up nearly as much. john: thank you all. we'll be right back with who won the week after this. ♪
♪ >> everybody stay tuned, this saturday night we will have the results of our final bloomberg politics des moines register iowa poll. the gold standard ended. we are covering a live stream, all the result at 6:30 eastern, 5:30 central tomorrow. marco rubio one the week, he is a clear establishment favorite to fill that slide if there is one. john: there is a lot more. mark: don't forget you can listen to us on the radio at 99.1 bloomberg radio in washington dc . until then, sayonara.
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