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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  February 3, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST

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[closing bell] u.s. stocks rebounding into the close, oil surging against major currencies. scarlet: the question is, "what'd you miss?" we speak to the analysts who made a call. betty: plus a race for first place, apple and alphabet go head-to-head to be the most valuable content and he in the u.s. social mood and lower confidence is giving rise to trump and sanders. -- scarlet: ofe course, the s&p 500 is launching its first advance this month. energy and materials, commodity sectors leading the gains. the weaker dollar certainly the focus. for so long it has been oil moving in locks that but now it
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seems to be the dollar. alix: it started when we got that weaker isn manufacturing data area we just couldn't find direction force along, but then oil started to turn around at 10 or 1030, now it's closing up almost 9%. we got that headline about one hour ago that opec and non-opec producers could wind up meeting to cut -- discuss cutting production. it didn't take a lot for the optimism to come through crude. i've got to be honest, i did not understand it. energy stocks were up almost 4%, but i didn't get it. it was a short covering and there was nothing good in that inventory of work. scarlet: it's not like it changed where review the u.s. economy or the global economy. alix: is a great point. even if we wind up getting some kind of agreement between opec producers and non-opec
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producers, like russia, you have to look between the lines. if they meet it does not mean they are going to cut. you can see producers adhering to a cut, but it's really only production moving off normal decline rates very good saying that they will cut, but they've already cut it. there is a lot of nuance that can go on. it can be hard to get a meeting brady say -- you know what, guys? cutting 5% of fraction. even when they do decide to put in a can of production quota. but michael mckee made the point that even if they come out with any kind of statement, it could be very good for market ecology when it comes to oil, which could have a huge impact on stabilizing any big declines. it was not so long ago that someone from russia floated the idea of meeting in an opec galler -- gathering.
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we been on this road before. alix: which is why we saw that selloff from the last few days, it came up -- came out that it wasn't really going to happen. that was part of the reason why we saw the decline. scarlet: government officials looking at the state of the company. alix: absolutely. scarlet: when i get a started? alix: we were talking about isn service data. the manufacturing index is that yellow line versus the white line, which is the services. i wanted to point out how big the gap is getting. the data we got for services, it was the weakest in february of 14. it is indicating that things are slowing down. if you take a look, i have maxed out the chart here. take a look at other times there has been a big gap.
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you always see them paired together. most economists seem to think that they will meet manufacturing in the middle but that there will be a decline in services. scarlet: this is a concerning trend. even with low we are above 50, you don't want to see that lowered. happens youen that tend to see services decline. scarlet: taking a look at the companies that have done well and have not done well so far this year. crunching the numbers, turns out only 24 out of 1900 talk runs managed to not decline in 2016. the unifying theme here is utilities. we're talking about defensive companies that do well in downtrends. many people do not believe that we are on the cusp of negative growth. least $1 billion in assets. i'm going to draw that 100 line right there. the white line right here is the franklin utilities fund.
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both up by not a whole lot. they only turned positive at the end of january, which i found interesting. the purple line right here, the all country world index. to 8%. not a great performance. the worst one, take a guess. alix: energy? financials question mark scarlet: china. [laughter] alix: close enough. scarlet: it is down more than 30%, worst percent -- worst-performing fund. yes, we've seen the money moving into the safety trade, and we have seen that clearly with europe. looking at the two year bond yield, this kind of says it all. .e are looking at 0.5% that's a record low. the idea that you would rather put your money into a two-year on the than anything else, two-yearhe year --
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more than anything else. to the: it goes back idea that people were buying these treasuries, or any of the bonds where the interest rate is now negative and you are not getting a fixed turn, they are kind of treating it like a growth stock. as opposed to the increase you might it in the price, not necessarily a fixed return. which is the point of fixed income. alix: 100%. scarlet: you can find all of these charts and more on twitter. alix: next we will dig deep into a bloomberg intelligence report. oil, hovering around $30 per barrel. ♪
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i'm scarlet fu. let's get to mark crumpton with first word news this afternoon. mark: thank you. president obama has his first visit to a mosque in the united states. he sat down today with muslim university chaplains, community activists, and public health officials at the islamic society of baltimore. they discussed religious tolerance. president obama: recently you have seen, too often, people conflating the horrific acts of terrorism with the beliefs of an entire faith. of course, recently we have heard inexcusable political rhetoric against muslim americans. it has no place in our country. mark: white house aides say that it was a deliberate review to republican presidential candidates who the aides claim
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have stoked islamic phobia. it is the first visit her and his presidency to a mosque on u.s. soil. former president jimmy carter said that the scan conducted last week found no signs of the cancer found last summer. despite the diagnosis, mr. carter, 91, said that he will go for next treatment set week. the list of presidential candidates is getting smaller. santorum's campaign says that his schedule is on hold, but cnn reports that he will drop out of the race tonight. senator rand paul is suspending his campaign. he is up for reelection to his kentucky senate seat this year. john kasich says that he's ready to drop out of the race if he, in his words, gets smoked in next year's primary. -- next week's primary. >> i can tell you, for us if we don't do well, we're not going to drag it around like some sort of band of minstrels they cannot
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beg people to come to our shows. so, we will make a hard choice. but i think we are going to do very well. but we are not going to drag this out. after placing eighth in the iowa caucuses, he said he thinks the race resets in new hampshire, where voters -- voters are not swayed by what happens in the hawkeyes eight. global news, 24 hours per day, powered by our 150 news bureaus around the world. scarlet: cbs announcing that summer -- sumner redstone is stepping down, to be replaced unless move as, taking on the chairman role. in addition saying that sherry redstone, sumner redstone post daughter declined the nonexecutive chairman role.
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she was offered that but declined because she is busy with other responsibilities. her responsibilities and recognition of her confidence in mr. move as. if you look at how cbs shares are performing after-hours, they shot up on the announcement. certainly news that investors like to hear. coming inside the bloomberg terminal, you can see that this management sumner redstone of course , hased as chairman in 2006 overseen and 8.79% total return during that time for the stock. similarly he has seen a similar kind of return. this is notable as you look at how investors are reacting to this news. looking at alix:
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oil, six opec and non-opec producers have agreed to an emergency meeting. joining us by the phone is the head of commodities and derivatives research at bank of america merrill lynch. we saw oil prices rallying before this news broke. do you give any credibility to these headlines? >> it's hard to give a lot of credibility. remember, at the end of the day unless saudi arabia comes out and says -- we are taking part in this discussion and we are prepared to delivered -- to deliver a portion, i think there will be a limit on credibility. remember also, prior to the opec meeting of last december, prices were surely trading higher. it was pretty clear that prices were going to decline following -- following the lack of agreement from back then. so, we went from $40, $45 all
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the way down to the low 30's. sign that is just a saudi's are not prepared to give up on this strategy. scarlet: they could all meet and agree to production that has artie happened, or put out some sort of unified statement in order to calm the oil markets. do you feel that these ancillary tools might be used? >> that's very possible. i think part of the reason we saw such a big selloff from the opec meeting through to mid-january is because opec talked the market down. various members came out and openly showed their disagreements. for sure, there is some degree of -- some degree of coordination. the cartel seems to be reassembling itself.
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i think that a lot of forulators are shorting oil a variety of reasons, either because they are hedging their equity positions or their authorized short. and it's true, we still haven't figured out why oil prices surged as much as they did today. i also wonder to what extent how much this ties into a change in position amongst speculators. inside the bloomberg terminal, it has surged the most since 2010. most recently, a fixed bike on the far right. perhaps people have thought that oil prices have stabilized and are now headed higher? was really weird to see oil rally on this bearish inventory report. you mentioned short covering, what can we attribute that to? >> i think some of that may have started prior to the coming out in the news and media.
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but the real point of the matter -- that there is a lot of short positioning across the complex. and one can see why. remember, the collapse that we have seen in oil prices has actually been rather modest compared to the collapse we have seen in asset values. whether it is equities are bonds , the implosion that we have seen in that space has been a multiple of the liquidity and positioning in oil. so, i'm not surprised that short covering rally's are becoming more common. but again, i think for oil needs to really bottom, we to see stability in the chinese yuan. i think the number over the next few days in terms of how much chinese foreign exchange research cannot last month will be critical to that stability.
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if we see a big draw, the market will get anxious that the yuan will move faster. i don't know, i think it needs to stabilize. we need to see some stability there. that could potentially help prices stabilize. when oil was surging, investors tended to use it as a proxy for global demand. now that oil is falling and perhaps hitting a bottom, we don't know yet, perhaps a stabilizing around his range, what has it become in terms of a proxy? >> most of the declining prices over the last year and a half have been supply driven. we first saw a massive surge in u.s. supply in 2014, followed by a big surge in saudi and iraqi supply. much of the collapse in prices you can link up to the supply side. however i do think that for the last few weeks you could make a case for cyclical consent --
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consumption from the industry or from trade. you could make a case that that has been solved. you could also make a case that the weather, that the warm winter has taken out the half-million barrels of demand in the last three months or so. those have been factors that have been impacted by this stage. alix: does that mean that the correlation is direct? >> i don't think so. like i said before, i think there's the weather. there is also of course slower industry. we have seen other sectors of the economy performing well in the u.s.. we have seen other parts of the world doing ok. i think the concern from the market, the collapse in oil, is translating into increased
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retail demand. we are also seeing the negative affect being highly concentrated in the high-yield space. even in the energy investment grade space. so, there is a bit of a debate here about whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for the consumer. create and to obviously it has not been brought up a question, but the drop in oil, at least the last few dollars, has been both supply and whether driven. the second -- second strongest in more than a decade. there is no demand problem so far. .carlet: got it thank you so much.
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breaking news, yum! brands reporting earnings for the fourth quarter, $.68. revenue, however, missing the mark. $3.95 billion compared with estimates. even so, they real form -- reaffirmed their operating forecast. when it comes to the china business, the bulk of their business as it's currently constructed, comparable sales and the company says they are on track keep their -- mark, butloses the taco bell beats estimates, 4% over the anticipated 2.1% increase. back to oil, we were looking at how people could make money on $30 oil. unbelievable. here's the thinking, oil prices
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fall and they cut production. the numbers tell a different story. this is a proprietary work from william boyles. he looked at counties in new mexico and looked at ones that had enough data to determine how much it cost to get oil out of the ground. calling it the breakeven. these of the counties that can survive at under $30 per barrel. here is how he wound up breaking it down, calculating everything from local schools and taxes to a day rate and found that over at $32 can produce oil per barrel. for comparison, let's take a look at the higher end of the scale over here, where you are getting $58 per barrel. discrepancies between the high-end and the low end. our company is actually making decisions on this break even. the answer is yes.
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the lower the breakeven, the more the rates companies have added. howard county over here, over the past two years. , to $53. why is this happening? is it so cheap to get oil out of the ground? companies are getting more oil out of the ground right off the bat. it is about how much you get out in the first 30 days. this line from here to here, 30% but youe in production are getting a lot of bang for your buck in the first 30 days of production. a lot more than you will in other areas, like wolf camp.
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that means that the oil you can why should youk care about this? it actually may be harder to hurt the exploration and production company than you think. there is no single oil price that will shut in oil production , meaning that a turnaround could take longer than we think. something for saudi arabia to keep in mind. coming up, the race for first place between out of that and apple. that is next. ♪
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alix: alphabet, the company formerly known as google, surpassing apple yesterday.
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now they are back in their place. scarlet: those are still massive numbers. that was long before they were two biggest companies by market value. i wanted to take a deep dive into the bloomberg to look at the top five companies by market. facebook soaring in the top five, really catapulting higher, mainstays, the other like microsoft, berkshire hathaway, google, microsoft, all thatof trading neutral there are no industrialists because more than anything it is just a reflection of war and buffett and his investing powers.
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wonder, if you look over time, how will these perform in the next 10 years? alix: lucky you asked. justin put together a chart. oil we go, the order was making two out of five of these companies. financials make up two out of five given that ge capital was the crown jewel of general electric. and it may be more backwards looking than forwards looking. scarlet: don't have a financial -- alix: don't have a cow, adjust. scarlet: even if it means adjusting to the mobile market. our next guest hotel you
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why. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. let's get to mark crumpton. mark: we begin with the latest virus, the -- zika florida governor declaring a public health emergency for four counties. there are nine travel associated cases. the counties are miami-dade, hillsboro, and lee and santa rosa. argentina is reporting a second case of the virus. martinique and french guiana are facing an epidemic of the zika virus. the government sending extra hospital equipment and preparing extra medical staff to combat it great the french government calling for a three-month
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extension of the state of emergency that has been in effect since the paris attacks in november. the measure requires parliaments approval. the state of emergency has been extended once and was scheduled to end february 26. south korea warned of quote, searing consequences if north korea does not abandon plans to launch a long-range rocket. north korea informed international organizations of its plans to launch and earth observation rocket on a satellite between february 8 and 25. robbed,rump says he was accusing ted cruz of stealing the iowa republican presidential caucuses. among trump's complaints, what cruz said about trump's positions on abortion and obamacare. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. scarlet, back to you. earnings just
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coming out. this company did pre-announce some results. we had some indication it would report a loss, and it did. the fourth-quarter adjusted loss of eight cents, when analysts were looking for one sent. gopro coming out with a loss for the fourth quarter. in terms of where it sees things headed for this quarter, first-quarter revenue will be as much as $180 million. if you consider that analysts millionking for $287 for the first quarter, that is at least $100 million less than what analysts anticipated, and this is a drop off of 21% of what analysts were expecting and revenues. full-year revenue will be
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anywhere from $1.35 billion to $1.5 billion. suspended from trading. a fourth-quarter adjusted loss per share of eight cents when analysts were looking for profit of a penny. about cbs.t to talk that stock is spiking in after hours trading. the chairman has stepped down to be replaced by les moonves, current ceo of cbs. he will hold both of those positions as well as president. sherry redstone will remain vice chairman. has joined cbs back in 1995. there had been a lot of questions about redstone and who would take his place. that question mark has been removed. brands reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings
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per share topping analysts' estimates. is down 1.5% even as young reaffirmed its profit and said china comparable sales were up to the much in line with what analysts anticipated, and it is on track to complete the china spinoff of that business. we had an afternoon rally that push the s&p and dow to their first gain in february. alix: oil really helping with that, soaring 11% throughout the social -- session. volatility in the market may be responsible for the rise of donald trump, bernie sanders, and ted cruz in the presidential race. says volatility and weak social mood could mean political victory for those extreme candidates. great to have you here. you look at what the public is talking about, what the public
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is feeling as a way to understand the market. mood drives the markets and politics simultaneously. it is interesting to see today that you have these fascinating, wild gyrations in the markets that are very reminiscent of the late 1960's, early 1970's or you politicalr environments, where bernie sanders appealing to the youth like george mcgovern did in 1972. whichst mentioned gopro, to me is the me, here, now equivalent of the late 1960's polaroid camera. it is a similar phenomenon where everybody is all about me here and now. is what is really rising and all of the politics that you see. week mood has people focused on what do they need themselves. now sounds here
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suspiciously like on-demand. we live in a uber-world. we have customized our newsfeeds, customized our leaders. it is theh netflix same idea. we want to be served where we are in all dimensions, particularly politics. a real challenge for the republican and democratic establishment. in aare the cbs, the nbc, world that once on demand, netflix and hulu, and they're having a really hard time fitting with the voter is today. alix: what do you wind up looking at two gauge the mood? is it consumer confidence? it is holding up really well, which would suggest things are not terrible. peter: it depends what measure you look at. gallup.y partial to
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they ask a simple question, how do you feel about what is happening now and what do you think will happen in the future? people are very pessimistic about the future. 40% of americans say things are ok. gettingsaying it's worse. what is more remarkable is that 75% of republicans over the ages of 45 say things have not gotten better in the last 8 years. is 25%, andumber bernie sanders says it's probably higher than that, because he should not be succeeding today. scarlet: will that lack of confidence act as a natural break to access the economy and markets? peter: absolutely. you started to see that already. whether you look at things like the st. louis stress index, that peaked in the middle of 2014. other measures of confidence
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peaked later. that risko question is reversing as confidence continues to fall. a look at where the stress is in the market. we tend to look at high-yield and the corporate on spread. -- bond spread. the investment grade corporate bond spread has blown out here. the wider the spreads, the more you will have a weird political revolt peter:. -- revolt. aser: is not so much weird it is customized to little segments. that creates the risk of real factions. i'm expecting that, we will have some very contentious conventions, and we could see candidates on both sides who are renewed. alix: if the stock market stabilizes by the summer, will that change the rhetoric we will here at conventions? peter: absolutely.
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you will see less xenophobia, less anti-emigration. you will see the party's move back towards the middle, favoring clinton, favoring rubio. if that does not happen, you will see further splits. scarlet: part of what has come up in the debate is the haves versus the have-nots. you made the point that the market was overconfident in all things luxury, the 1% will continue to drive much of the consumption, and everybody kind of went along. peter: i think you have seen the peak and what i call the billionaire bubble, the financial iced -- financialized few, their confidence peaked at you only need to go down the street and look at billionaires row of these incredible skyscrapers and what you have seen in terms of yacht and other luxury items or it the challenge for me is, what looks more confident than what we have
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already seen? i have a hard time imagining that, and that's what i need to see the markets going higher. alix: clinton and rubio need everyone to buy stocks by the summer. great insight. peter atwater a financial inside. scarlet: coming up, what are the top fx trades? ♪
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scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. we have breaking news on delta. it has named at bassi and as ceo of the airline, effective may 2, when richard anderson, the current ceo, will retire. with edeader for delta
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bastian as ceo may 2. now it's time for a look at some of the biggest business news stories right now. redstone has stepped down as chair of cbs and beulah replaced -- and will be replaced by les moonves. fromding to a statement the company, moonphase will serve as chairman in addition to president and ceo. redstone's daughter will remain vice-chairman of cbs. brands appearing to spin off its chinese operations, reporting a fourth quarter that topped estimates largely due to strong sales at taco bell and kfc. profit was $.68 per share in the period. look at same-store sales, gaining 4% taco bell, 3% kfc. scarlet: cisco systems says it
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will acquire jasper technologies for $1.4 billion. jasper's products allow customers to connect devices over cellular networks and manage them through software. cisco will pay cash and assumed equity awards plus additional incentives. alix: lions gate has restarted talks to acquire stars. discussions are taking place between advisors of both companies. lions gate discussed how to move forward with the potential acquisition at a board meeting on tuesday. for now the company is more focused on its earnings report which is out tomorrow. scarlet: what did you miss? how might you want to position from here? let's ask our guest. your trade of the week covers the town before the boe
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announcement tomorrow as well as the yen. tell us why you recommend going along the pound and shortly yen. >> the market is in the mood of getting out of positions that has been very bearish on on the story,with the grexit easing, and so on and so forth. in the meantime it has been somewhat positive, the japanese yen, with the boj coming across and doing what they did with negative rates on friday. alix: how much more downside do you feel is left to the yen? >> it returned a lot today. it was a wild day. 121,ved all the way up to 122. today we went back down to 120. we still think there's a lot of upside. kindet: do you expect that
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of volatility to repeat itself over the next couple of weeks? >> it will continue to remain uncertain in currency markets. it's good because it means the market will try to find a new equilibrium, where basically you requiretral banks easing. alix: do you expect negative currency rates are in translation at fx four? --central-bank stance negative rates is one mode of that stance. when it comes to the fed, the fed is about to continue hiking or they won't hike. the fed is nowhere near going on negative rates. it is about the stance where you stand today as opposed to where you were two weeks ago. scarlet: let's talk about the mexican peso. there have been a lot of people turning overweight on emerging market debt in recent weeks. alix: this chart shows the
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number of short contracts. there is also the dollar versus the peso, but it is inverted. >> we have that issue going on in global e.m. markets. two of the largest dollar positions out there are in mexico and brazil. those are markets were investors do very active, and we believe they have entered additional positions in mexico over the past couple of months, so the market was crowded. we saw that today. alix: but you are positive on the peso and not the reality. >> -- real. we believe that from evaluation perspective, the peso is more attractive. this is a company that is very open.
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mexico should be fine. scarlet: we talked about this piling into emerging market debt. talk about the levels of debt when it comes to emerging markets. china one is keeping an eye on because of how leveraged it is. >> china -- the best numbers i keep quoting over and over again is the 60% of points that to gdp ratio that increased over the past few years. we are very concerned. the debt needs to be unwound. campe very much in the that we expect china to [indiscernible] coming up, after yahoo! announced it was looking for strategic alternatives, can ceo marissa mayer turn the ship around or will she go down with it? ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. yahoo! ceo marissa mayer sat down with "bloomberg west" anchor emily chang earlier today. here's what she had to say. >> what's good for yahoo! is good for me and vice versa. there's not a personal interest that is separated there. we want to see the best possible future and the best possible ouromes for yahoo!, for users, advertisers, employees, and shareholders. given the scope of the job cuts and cost cuts you have needed to make to attempt to get there, how are you dealing with the drop in morale and productivity? marissa: i would say when i look at yahoo! we have a lot of people here who are confident.
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this is as focused as we have ever been. there is always going to be some issues of morale in a complicated situation like this, but i really believe in the resilience of the people here at yahoo!, and i believe in their vision, the shared vision we built together. emily: there are concerns that you overpaid executives to stay, overpaid big media personalities in an age where companies like almostd are paying nothing. why does your strategy and model makes sense? say, there have been media reports that are inaccurate, and there certainly are some perceptions out there that aren't quite right. i don't address to many in
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particular, but some of the perceptions of what we have paid or overpaid for various things are just that, they are misconceptions. when i look at yahoo!, yahoo! is really a three legged stool. there is informed, connect, and entertain. leg of the stool provides a fundamental element to our business. we focus on discovery, so search is a key part of that. it is lucrative overall to our business. communications drives a lot of frequency. content anddigital media, that is really what differentiates us. people come to yahoo! because of that personalities, original perspective, but also because of aggregation and personalization. all of those work together to create a true digital network. that's ultimately what makes sense for us to invest in, original perspectives and high-quality content.
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it is one of the things that draws people to yahoo! and differentiates us from other mail and search providers. emily chang joins us now. what else did you gather from the interview that really stood out? emily: the number one thing i was trying to get to is, does she really want to sell this company and is the company really for sale. they had said they are open to pursuing strategic alternatives, which we have interpreted as a willingness to sell the core business. that statement came in an earnings release from the chairman, maynard webb. what i gleaned from the interview is that they are going down three paths at the same time. one, trying to turn around the company. that is marissa mayer's priority. at the same time, they are pursuing a reverse spinoff of and third, they're working on potentially exploring a sale of the core. what i gathered is that she does not want to sell the company,
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but she's more open to selling this company than she has ever been. to keep so she wants maximum flexibility there. what do we know about actual interest in purchasing the company? heard a lot of rumors, we get tips all the time about interests. verizon ceo has publicly expressed interest if it makes sense for verizon. thattely we have heard verizon is legitimately interested, but it's unclear if that has got into a formal level. it is unclear if yahoo! has hired a banker to facilitate these conversations. people on the outside are saying they have not hired a banker, so are they really serious about selling this company? there have also been private equity interests. we've spoken to a number of that haveuity firms said, it could be of interest. again, no formal process. thanks so much, emily
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chang, "bloomberg west" anchor. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. credits we's reports earnings tomorrow morning at 1:15 a.m. new york time. the stock is trading at a 52-week low heading into the results and is expected to post its first full year from 2008. jobs challenger cuts tomorrow. you don't quit your job unless you feel good about the job market. initial jobless claims coming in at 8:30 a.m. we saw an increase of what will it bring this week.
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scarlet: it is all part of the drumbeat leading up to the friday jobs report we are keeping an eye on. alix: thank you so much for watching. scarlet:
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" --with all due respect ♪ >> hello from our granite state studios at the radisson hotel in manchester, with just a week ago before the new hampshire primary. presidential races in both parties a rough it into an epic war of words on twitter and the campaign trail today. bernie sanders blasted hillary clinton in a series of


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