tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg February 4, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EST
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. alix: here is what we are watching at this hour. the turbulent markets have even the bulls scared. he will talk to one of wall street's biggest bulls and why he's lowering his forecast for the s&p. scarlet: linkedin is expected to post strong earnings today, so why is the stock down 14%? alix: and we will show you who is still making money at $30 a barrel in oil. scarlet: julie hyman is keeping track of all of the moves. give us a sense of what is happening as we hit midweek. are seeing a surge in volatility as markets are all over the map. we are halfway through the session and already we have gone negative and positive for several times. it seems as though there's not a lot of rhyme or reason.
look at the intraday chart of the s&p, that's what you get. hitting the highs for the day, coming down now about .3%. you might say is that what is happening in oil prices and the answer is yes. higheren it was consistently earlier, stocks were not hire consistently, so they have come down. charti want to bring up a of the volatility in oil versus the volatility in stocks. the volatility of oil versus the volatility of stocks. you've seen it go to pretty high levels here. the interesting thing is oil issue has averaged a daily move at the close of 4.2%.
that is higher than we have seen her stock but in oil, it has been even more. and we can continue to expect that at goldman sachs. what is not getting rocked by julie:ity today? transports are holding up. highs, but off the not seeing much of a dent. mid-caps also holding up well. highs butn from the not quite as dramatic as what we see overall. bank stocks, which have been battered in recent days, still off and other commodities are holding up relatively well. ond, silver, copper hanging
to their gains as oil gives up its gains. interesting there where we see more consistency -- there is consistency to be had, just not overall in stocks. scarlet: let's move on to bloomberg first word news and check in with mark crumpton with the headlines. mark: members of the u.s. congress were eager to hear from martin shkreli about the severe hece hike for a drug company acquired, but he refused to answer any questions before a house panel, saying he was exercising his fifth amendment right against health and commission. theou did not provide committee any written testimony. do you wish to make an opening statement? the advice of counsel, i will not be given an opening statement. facing chargess of security fraud. secretary of state john kerry
says syrian peace talks will resume. syrian forces made major progress with a new offensive against rebel held areas. on russiakerry called to honor a u.n. revolution requiring the halt of airstrikes on civilians. has ruled in favor of julian assange, saying he has been arbitrarily detained. he has been holed up in ecuador's embassy in london for more than three years. he said he would surrender to british authorities of the ruling went against him. he wants to avoid extradition to sweden on rape charges, fearing that could lead to standing trial in the u.s. for leaking classified documents. post says ben carson is eliminating more than 50 staffers, including field
operatives and employees at his northern virginia headquarters. his campaign funds are drying up. candidate,tier carson finished fourth in iowa caucuses was just over 9% of the vote. global news 24 hours a day powered by our toy 400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. scarlet: rock-bottom oil prices and sharp swings in equity sharps have triggered productions for the bond market. alix: and now a wall street bull is cutting his that's by 8%. he joins us now from his offices in new york. you are well known as being a big bowl. you see the 14% upside from here 70 fiver target is $21 cents. what made you cut? guest: it is more mass than
anything else. earnings look like they were going to end at about 119, so i took a nominal growth rate and 117 number looks more like given the weakness in energy. i am probably going to be too conservative in a chair but i would rather be too conservative than two optimistic. today is a great example. how could anyone trade this kind of volatility? this is what happens when you are in the bottoming process. process makes you feel like you will have a spike to new highs or crash to new lows throughout the day and we have seen that over the last few days. scarlet: the bottoming process can take a wild. oilprocess does hinge on
and high-yield stabilizing. how can one make that assumption when it could be longer than anyone knows? guest: you look for historical steps. for the market itself, when you your gain is 22%. down 10% three week timeframe, culminating in a big down a, your median gain is up 25% a year later. so i missed the decline. i wish i got more defensive for a three-week timeframe but i didn't. at some point, you have to look at where the damage has become excessive and indicative of the lows, similarly in oil. historically, it is correlated with a bottom in oil.
frameworkstorical that has probably been a little bit overdone. one of the hallmarks is the correlation between oil and stocks which does not make a lot of sense. i'm looking at the historical thread between the s&p end of uti. to one, thee gets more they tend to move in tandem with the same kind of price action. we have not seen these levels since 2012. guest: does it make sense to you? typically, when you look at that, it doesn't last that long. sense thingsmmon we heard was the transportation index and oil prices were making a 52 in the same month. one of my partners pointed out to us where you would imagine how could transport and oil make a low in the same month.
you have to assume it's going to be in a recession. other time, it's a risk off crash. there's no question in my mind we have had that. at some point, you have to look at the risk reward outside of the recession and they take time. that is why we pushed out our target and lowered our multiple expectation because we don't see a bottom like 1998. it's going to take a while. scarlet: what about election cycle weakness? the final year of a two-term ranks low in returns. how big a factor is a going to be holding back share prices through november? at thei want to look data to see if it is skewed in any way. seen the data as to
what comprises that but last year should have been a big up here and it wasn't. i travel around and talk to institutional investors, when you talk a lot the options you have about who's going to lead the country, it's not a multiple expanding event. there's a lot of fear about who the options are and that can constrain stocks. thank you very much. scarlet: coming up in the next 20 minutes, the bank of england says rates will stay low for a little while, but they can't stay low forever. alix: pimco's jerome schneider says bond traders are not topared for interest rates be raised or bond rates to be turned to losses. credit suisse says it will cut 4000 jobs as it recover from a
alix: welcome back to bloomberg markets. scarlet: let's head to our markets desk where julie hyman has a check on individual movers. since we talked earlier about how the metals are holding up very well today, anything having to do with metals is holding up. particularly freeport matt moran. done so poorly, not just this year but over the last year as well. tooa and newmont mining are
a lesser degree higher. we have been watching oil stocks today and oil has been all over the map today. many of these stocks have held up well. it was actually down the most, transocean and murphy have been coming back. we had earnings reports from a couple of large oil companies. royal dutch shell said it had a profit drop of 44% but that's a smaller drop than some of its competitors. phillips coming out with a bit of a shocker, slashing its $.25.nd to you and i have talked about this a lot -- the dividend is a four under these companies.
it's a very dramatic move. the issue is they sold and spun off their refining business. a few years ago, that was a sexy thing to do. , the refining business has been saving them. that is what hurt conoco as oil prices fell. scarlet: in-line with expectations, the bank of england voted to keep rates unchanged. they stated the rate will average .8% this year, climbing to the 2% target. mark carney dismissed calls for a rate cut this year. guest: as i said again and we said in the monetary policy summary, the view is more likely than not, the next move in rates
is up and that is consistent with the forecast. alix: we are joined now by sam hill in london. it seems like he wants his cake and eating it too. what does that do to the market? markets were less volatile than we might have expected. here -- ontwo things one hand, the person on the committee who had been voting on the hike dropped the call, so there was a unanimous vote not to hike. the two to three-year horizon was above the 2% target which sent a hawkish signal on the outlook for interest rates. i think the market was happy to stay with the expectation. scarlet: i have to ask about the
bank of japan. what kind of effect did it have on the boe policymaker's thinking? were --on't think they that was in line with our expectations. going forward, the thing market participants have to be careful for is just how aggressive they get. we don't see that move followed up by further cuts into negative territory by the european central bank in march. to see the feds not be so aggressive this year, all of the sudden, the bank of england's interest rate might look relatively high and that might have implications further down the line.
at this point, both we and the bank of england would expect they would not have be considering cutting rates from here. alix: it seems like the markets disagree. i'm looking at the work function for the u.k. that measures when there will be a rate hike versus a cut. this is really ugly. there's no possibility of a rate hike, and fact that market pricing in a 34% chance of a cut. do the markets need to reprice or does the boe need to factor in the market? possibleink one explanation behind the pricing is partly based on the reaction of the bank of japan. one of the messages the bank of england sent out today was the risks to inflation in the short-term are to the downside. there is the risk of second of peoplects in terms
accessing lower wage increases and the cost of business is lower for longer and making it more difficult for inflation to return to target anyway. given the downside bias, it seems likely markets will be reticent to be too swift about pricing out the probability of cuts and bringing forward the expectations of when the first hike will be. a downsideere is bias, but when you look at the overall strength of the economy, how much strength can the labor part of the economy gather? isn't it about peak wages? sam: that's one of the things that is surprising -- we have not seen wages pick up as we would have expected. the thing that really matters in
terms of the labor market is what happens to productivity. we've seen the u.k. economy has struggled to get productivity gains. if things do start to come through, that could be one thing which allows you to have wage growth which is not particularly inflationary. alix: thank you very much for joining us. .am hill, senior economist scarlet: a fed rate hike might be ahead. about why manager at pimco is protecting more than one increase in 2016. ♪
what the risk-free interest rate is. >> t-bills are the risk-free rate as people look for volatility in the marketplace. that purpose, it is still a risk-free rate. your yields artificial because of the slow of money now expected to come in abroad from negative interest rate? >> front-end interest rates will be suppressed structurally on a go forward basis. the main focal point for investors to focus on is yields, whether it's from a bank deposit or otherwise will remain structurally repressed because of that demand function. fore's so much demand instruments like t-bills overwhelming supply that there's simply not room to get off that near zero balance.
looking at the two-year spread today -- what does it say to you? guest: it says that expectations are off the table. but global financial conditions are weighing on the markets. from an investor's point of view , you have to think of ways to safeguard that capital. the way to do that is typically in money market funds. that might stay for the foreseeable future. need to beors focused on is avoiding volatility. volatility has been coming from interest-rate exposure. it had to do with rate hikes and now has to do with global financial conditions bringing down the markets. is safety attility this point. tom: you are living at 35,000 feet and this guy is landing at
147 feet. a guy in ther short-term. guest: take a look at the short-term and the short term interest rates, but if you are looking at the inappropriate risk free rate and it's a long-duration animal, what is the appropriate interest rate across the maturity spectrum we should be looking at? at the u.s.,ooking i would say a real risk-free rate. the question i would ask is long-duration, will that be the appropriate risk-free rate? the appropriate rate is probably the 10 year at this point. we have to focus on this -- and equity managers cognizant of their structure at this point. basically, as they look at the portfolio composition, the need to scale it down to the higher
volatility. this goes for retail investors as well. retail investors need to think about that cash component and it has come from an apathetic allocation of cash afterthought to a cognizant allocation. that was pimco's jerome schneider. alix: still ahead, credit suisse posting it biggest quarterly loss in years. ♪
news desk. mark: a brazilian health workers union has called off a strike because it could affect the battle against the fast-spreading zika virus. it includes workers that go door to door in rio de janeiro, trying to eradicate because. the union had threatened to strike. in sierra leone, dozens of people linked to the most recent cases of ebola are still missing according to the world health organization, who says 18 of the contacts are at high risk of having the double -- the disease. the west african outbreak has a thousand than people since late 2014, nearly 4000 sierra leone. the senior u.s. commander in afghanistan is taking issue with president obama's proposal to cut the american troop level two 5500. army general john campbell says
that would be too few soldiers left to train afghan security sources. he thinks the afghan troops will not be able to operate independently until 2024. members of the u.s. congress were eager to hear from martin shkreli about the severe price by afor a drug sold company acquired, but the former pharmaceutical executive refused to answer any questions before a house panel, saying he was exercising his fifth amendment right against self-incrimination. martin shkreli is facing criminal charges of securities fraud. will fight the -- the fight against the tax against the so-called cadillac plan. the tax will not be imposed until the year 2020. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus
around the world. i am mark crumpton. back to you. alix: thank you. credit suisse reporting its biggest quarterly loss in seven years after writing down the value of its investment bank and setting aside provisions for litigation. scarlet: earlier today, the ceo mr. thiam: spoke to francine lacqua --tidjane thiam spoke to francine lacqua. mr. thiam: it is a tough cocktail. francine: how much total? tidjane thiam -- mr. thiam: 11%. francine: you are expecting a 12 2016. this stabilizes by midyear -- does it continue to be volatile? what our markets concerned about? mr. thiam: we had a long discussion with the chief economist and i agree with him. we have a disconnect between what we see in the real economy .f you look at the u.s.
the lower oil prices is good for the consumer. most of the gp is consumption. -- gdp has consumption. the consumer feels good. house is worth much more. he has much more money from the lower oil price, and what is not spending.is that is where the markets come to play -- bigger confidence in the future. there is an overemphasis on the oil sector. if you look at the price of oil longa long of time -- period of time -- decades, we have had normal levels around 100, and 35 is the historic average. to treat the return to the historic average as a major crisis is incorrect. francine: using the correlation between the price of oil and
markets is wrong? mr. thiam: feel strongly the price of oil is low because of oversupply. we think it is clearly oversupply -- a strategy by major oil producers to drag the old price done. you have a rant coming, new suppliers coming -- it is a classic supply and demand dynamic. we do not see that as an early indicator of the world crisis, and, again, banks will have -- large international banks, $4 trillion in additional capital compared to 2008. you have no threat in the global financial system because the balance sheets are strong. crisisill always be a here and there, but we think most of the world's oil-importing. at have seen the pmi price
any store card. -- and historic high. companies like child -- china and india -- it is very good for them. it has a contractionary effect on reinvestment. -net, we think the economy will be ok. scarlet: that was credit suisse ceo tidjane thiam earlier on bloomberg -- bloomberg. alix: credit suisse is not the only cutting jobs -- barclays plan to cut 1200 investment banking jobs, and deutsche bank with losses after stinging loss in 2015. scarlet: will european banks fake -- face more losses? the banking sector has gone through years and years of job cuts. what is different about this latest round? square one foro the next. while the times were good, they did not cut enough.
times are bad. revenue is slumping, business is down. to give you some idea, headcount is down by a quarter over the past five years. costs are only down by 8%, it is estimated. they are not ready. they did not get themselves ready for a new downtime, a new cycle. alix: who is at fault -- management, regulators -- could regulars have imposed more restrictions to get up to snuff? lionel: there is no doubt regulators did their job and forced banks to load up on staff at the same time they were firing traders and tankers are they had to hire compliance and risk managers. that is part of the reason. on the other hand, we should not absolving management. they kept faith in the model. they thought a rebound was coming. they thought the model was not broken. to cap on -- they caps on too many people at a higher cost.
they did not feel that a real structural change was hitting the industry. scarlet: and of course, you and i know being writers when you edit a story, you cannot trim words here and there -- you have to drop ideas. the same thing with bank executives -- you cannot trim around the edges but you have to cut businesses. have the european banks gone far enough? they are talking about refocusing their strategy, but it is a long time coming. talk is cheap, and despite the promises and targets, i can count on one hand the amount of banks that have quit an entire asset class, a business line. that has to happen. the ceos sound serious. there is new blood. on the other hand, everyone is exhausted. morale is down. it remains to be seen if in this third wave, almost, of restructuring, they will deliver
on cutting the basic oversupply of investment banking providers. alix: clinton's people wind up going -- who is benefiting from all of this? scarlet: good question. lionel: for a while, it was asset management, the buy side, but that is turning. people talk about asset management compensation coming .own, too compliance and risk management, that was booming even as bankers and traders were getting fired, but remember, for the expensed stars, rather -- experienced stars, they are were banks willing to -- there were banks going to pay. scarlet: lionel laurent, thank you for joining us. bloomberg gadfly columnist joining us from london. alix: for more commentary from bloomberg gadfly, type in gadfly on the terminal, or search bloomberg gadfly on the web. scarlet: royal dutch shell is
scarlet: we have breaking news that hasbro and mattel, the biggest toymakers in the country, had held talks about merging. they would bring together toys -- my little pony, furby, barbie, hot wheels -- they have been discussing this since late last year and have held on and off talks. this is according to people familiar with the matter. this is not from the company. this is from bloomberg reporting
. alix: this comes on the heels of mattel reporting a killer fourth-quarter earnings. they have been struggling, but mattel's stock surged at him as the highest in seven years thursday. they had a great holiday season. barbie sales were up 1% in the fourth quarter. all of that is circulating in the middle of the story. scarlet: and it is getting a pop on this report. 6%. than hasbro shares, a similar move. basically the same chart. i should point out revenue at mattel this year is set to take a hit due to the licensing brand of the disney shifting to hasbro. part of the story is they make money off of existing licensing agreements and me wanted to buy toys from "frozen" for the simple, for my daughter.
-- for example, for my daughter. scarlet: and you can have them all your portfolio. alix: something we will be keeping our eye on throughout the day. scarlet: you are watching bloomberg. i am scarlet fu. alix: i am alix steel. scarlet: credit suisse posting its biggest quarterly loss in seven years. we will hear from the ceo. alix: european commission is cut in the euro area growth forecast for the year. what does this mean for future central-bank moves? scarlet: the oil drought claiming another victim -- with royal dutch shell reporting disappointing results. alix: we start with credit suisse -- this was big posting its biggest courtly loss in seven years, 5.8 billion dollars, and trading losses can -- contribute to a slump. the bank is attempting aggressive job slashing and cutting bonuses. have also cut
bonuses, a tough cocktail to absorb. francine: how much for bonuses? mr. thiam: total bonuses, 11%, and for the divisions that have underperformed the world market, by more than 30%. scarlet: the european area commission has cut the growth forecast for 2016. the ecb predict it will grow 1.8% this year, down 1/10 of a percentage point from its previous forecast. thus, economists warned it would be much lower than expected, one half of 1%. alix: the uk's leading as benchmark interest rate at a record low -- is leaving it interest rate at a record low and sticking with a gradual rate rise environment. >> as we said in the minutes and the monetary policy summary, and it was clear in the letter to the chancellor, more likely than not, the next move in the rates is up, and that is consistent with the rates. scarlet: royal dutch shell has been hit hard by the steep drop
in oil prices. they are betting that a $50 billion acquisition will maintain dividends and increase gas and oil production. alix: japanese electronics company sharp will the goucher with two firms to digitization this month. there are some reports they will give preference to foxconn. they are vying for the company, which has lost money for five straight quarters. for more stories, visit bloomberg.com. doolittle,o abigail who is live -- no -- we're not going to go to abigail doolittle. we will be checking a markets. if you look at the nasdaq, we are up by about three point. the dow up by 59, but nonetheless looking for direction. scarlet: the nasdaq was a laggard in yesterday's trading as well, and that continues with the momentum trade not getting much traction this year. alix: let's get deeper into what
is going on at the nasdaq. abigail doolittle joining us now. abigail: a lot of intraday activity, and on the plus side health care and biotech is boosting the nasdaq. the drag is big tex, including both classes of alphabet stock, followed by facebook and microsoft. what is interesting, all three of the companies put up great fourth quarters and great -- gave decent guides. you have to wonder what is going on. it current -- turns out what could be a tease of it -- the momentum stock bubble may pop. this is after investors were "pushed" into momentum stocks. valuation is now "at epic proportions" and that "all bubbles eventually pop." of names -- there are a number of names highlighted. what stands out is two of last year's top winners, amazon and netflix, that are down year to
date were not mentioned, but you have to wonder whether or not those big internet names are precursors for some sort of bubble popping. scarlet: thank you, abigail. comity,, another nasdaq is excited to report earnings and analysts are expecting strong results. alix: here to talk about whether investors want to connect with the company, is mark mahaney from san francisco. he says the linkedin fundamentals of a strong list of any large-cap internet stock. no lovehe stock getting from the markets. aney: i should clarify -- given the facebook print, i cannot say linkedin has the best fundamentals. that belongs to facebook. we think the fundamentals are impressive. think they will sustain 30% plus revenue growth and show market
expansion. that is an outlier. you do not see too many of those able to generate margin expansion. the pressure on linkedin -- a lot of that came in the first half of last year where they had a lot of execution errors, salesforce migration that did not work out well. they had an acquisition of a.com, an called lynd online development and training company. financials turned out to be softer than the market expected. that caused hesitation. year to date, it has traded up with higher multiple tech names, especially in the internet place. our take is the market has been going to buy up or favor company said have good prints, hence .acebook and google, too both of outperform the market. we think linkedin will outperform the market. scarlet: and the talent acquisition is fueling the
growth. it sounds like a headhunting business. how different is it from monster? mr. mahaney: that is what it is. it offers tools for corporations, and are almost 40,000 companies now that use and pay to use linkedin's talent solutions as ways to source new employees -- active job lookers or passive job lookers. inis getting dramatic share the hr recruiting industry. scarlet: quickly, in china, linkedin is the only social network allowed to operate there, unlike facebook and twitter. what is the biggest risk to linkedin's growth in china? you are right about that, but it is early stages. the financial impact is to minimize it if they are successful, it will not be returned to the linkedin investment thesis for another two years, but it is an
alix: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am alix steel. so, oil is a big focus for the markets, and the question is how can companies make money off of $30 oil -- here is the conventional thinking -- oil prices fall, oil company become unprofitable, they cut production. the numbers tell a different story. this proprietary work from bloomberg intelligence's william foils. he looked at counties in texico and new mexico -- texas and new mexico to see how much it would cost to get oil out of the ground. it is called a breakeven price. in yellow, there are eight counties where you can make
money under $30 a barrel. here's the breakdown. oil -- foils calculated everything from local school ands to day reagan rates found that do with can produce barrel,r under $30 a and on the higher end, you are still looking at something like $58, $59. so, our company is making decisions off of this information? the answer is yes. the lower you break even, the more rigs were added. look at howard. -- 100% more0 rigs in the past two years. the rate doubles because the breakeven is $29. look at reagan -- the recount -- 73% becauseopped the break was $53 a barrel. what is the difference --why is it so cheap to get oil out of
the ground? companies are getting more oil out of the well right off the bat -- initial production, how much oil you get out in the first 30 days. look at eagle furred -- the orange line. 35% had initial production rates above 900 barrels a day. for other basins, it was much less. look at the balkan, they are about 10%. you are getting so much more oil right off the bat. no coincidence that they have the lowest breakeven's and the highest ip rates. why do you care? it might be harder to kill the emp's than you think. one oil price will not have the power to shut down production. scarlet: big oil feeling the squeeze -- conoco phillips cutting its dividend and that makes investors worried. shares are down more than 7%. like other oil company's,
conical phillips has taken a beating when it comes to the share price, down 40%. we will bring in bloomberg intelligence analyst peter polk and. who is next? peter: what is adjusting to know is in december they came out with their operational plan and they basically say the dividend was a big priority -- a top priority, in fact, and now, basically a month and a half later, they have slashed dividends 66%. what has changed -- oil prices have declined. it is down 20%. also, they are realizing the price environment will be for a lot longer than they expect, and they are expecting for longer -- lower for longer outlook. alix: if you look at historical dividends, yields are much higher than they were in the financial crisis, meaning share prices are getting hit that much more. does that make any sense? it does make sense, and
here is why -- we have nothing the bulk of the players cut dividends. whenarket is telling you you see a high dividend is they do not believe it. they think cuts are around the corner. that% dividend feels everyone is hoping for, the market anticipates that is not looking to be the case going forward. scarlet: you should not get that much of a reaction when the dividend cut actually comes. peter: the market anticipates it. scarlet: two weather much. alix: coming up, -- thank you very much. alix: coming up, robert mcewen will give us his forecast for gold. we will be right back. ♪
scarlet: welcome to bloomberg markets. scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am scarlet fu. alix: i'm alex dell. here is what we are watching at this hour. -- alix steel. here's a we are watching. : i invoke myi fifth amendment right and refuse to answer your question. scarlet: credit suisse shares tumble after the bank posted huge loss. ceo blames turbulent markets and sees more choppy times ahead. alix: t-boned pickens says he could cash out of oil, but he is waiting to get back in. scarlet: we want to head to the markets desk, where julie hyman has been keeping an eye on the
action. just like yesterday, the s&p and the dow outperforming the nasdaq. julie: right now we see the s&p very little changed, even as the nasdaq is almost completely unchanged. you can see a little bit of gains for the major averages. we have been bouncing all around during the session. if you look at the s&p on an intraday basis, for example, you will seen that -- see that bouncing around, but it is a relatively tight range. we are not seeing some of the larger point swings characterizing recent action. if you look at the map, you get an idea of what is on the move. material shares getting along with metals prices. astros and financials also bouncing back from some of the recent losses. consumer staples and discretionary stocks, however, are leading declines, along with health care today. if you look at the individual movers in the s&p 500, for example, and, kind of, what is dragging, and contribute the most within that index, ge and
exxon mobil are helping the most on the upside. american eagle on the downside. let's check oil. abouts turned lower by 2/10 of 1%. oil futures hanging onto their gains. a volatile session for oil. gold has been consistently higher. alix: also dealing with recent breaking news. julie: let's get an update on hasbro and mattel. britain is reported hasbro approached mattel about a dish bloomberg news reported hasbro approached mattel -- bloomberg news reported hasbro approached mattel about a deal. hasbro sales, $4.3 billion, $5.7 billion. over the past year, both of
these stocks have outperformed the market by a wide margin. hasbro by a wider degree. there is interplay because hasbro will take up the "frozen" and princesses franchise. it is a big moneymaker for the company. scarlet: let's check in with first word news. mark crumpton has the headlines from the news desk. mark: thank you. members of congress were eager butear from martin shkreli, he refused to answer any questions, saying he was exercising his sent amendment right against self-incrimination. >> is it pronounced martin shkreli? mr. shkreli: yes, sir. >> you can answer some questions. that did not think him at you to understand that you can answer questions, and not all of your answers will subject you to
incrimination. mr. shkreli: i intend to follow the advice of my counsel, not yours. facingartin shkreli is securities fraud charges. u.k. prime minister david cohosted a one and a meeting attended by leaders from 70 countries. he says the funds include almost $6 billion pledged for 2016 with another $5 billion committed by the year 2020. donald trump and bernie sanders have commanding leads in new hampshire. that is according to a poll out today. trump leaves the gop field with 36%. he is followed by florida center marco rubio with 15%, and texas senator ted cruz with 14%. on the democratic side, senators sanders leads hillary clinton, 58% to 36%. future isenergy
looking bright, and fueled by sahara sunshine. the north african nation is raising the curtain on one of the world's biggest solar plants . the $3.9 billion project is the first phase of an initiative that is expected to provide more than one million moroccans with power. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark renton. back to you. -- i am mark crumpton. back to you. you.et: thank oil has been bouncing around today, but higher than the past two days. alix: could we see early signs of bottom? our next guest think so. is with wells fargo institute. he joins us from st. louis. prices toneed oil
stabilize so badly for stock prices to go higher? >> there has been a tie between oil markets and stock markets lately. it reflects a couple of things -- there is a fear that lower oil prices are a sign of either weak demand for oil, which would hit earnings, or the sign of a collapsing oil production center, which would hit manufacturing, but there is also the risk that falling oil prices will push consumer prices, -- deflation, below zero, and is a prospect we face before. it was negative then, negative now. falling oil prices have pushed expectations lower, but as for pushing expectations lower, if you strip out energy and food costs, at least we have stated the positive. mr. christopher: yes, and we have been there for a while, but
the inflation expectations are there for the longer-term and will guide patterns as we move into 2016 and into 2017. part of the conversation has been comparing the phase two 2008. come inside the bloomberg had this highlights the question at stake. it compares manufacturing indexes, the you line, versus the services index, the white line -- it is the gap here that has people scared. will the services economy get pulled down by manufacturing, and what does that do? arechristopher: there probably a variety of reasons why's services have softened. it could be sentiment -- oil prices, people worrying about the economy going forward, saving more, we have seen the ad and flow in services and manufacturing throughout the recovery. they even remind me a little bit of 2011, 2012, when we had another were rather weak period
in the economy that we bounced back from. bouncebacklls fargo with a positive outlook in equities. does that follow the tumbled in oil prices? mr. christopher: part of the outlook was for additional volatility. we might not have been expecting it from the first trading day of the year, but we have seen the volatility, and it is going to remain, we think, the future of an economy that continues to grow, but, perhaps, produces earnings at a slower rate than in the previous year or two below. we are probably, after all, in the second half of the recovery, or the business cycle. alix: what do you wind of hearing from clients --are people freaked out? how long do you think the bottoming process ends up taking, and what does it look like? good questionr: -- i have spent a lot of time with clients, and their attitude seems to be concerned, but calm
still. they recognize that the market prior to august had not had a correction for many, many months. it is not that unusual for markets to have corrections, especially, again, in the second part of an earnings cycle when earnings growth may slow and you get more volatility. that produces opportunities as well. scarlet: speaking of corrections, can you compare and contrast what we saw now with 2011? mr. christopher: yes, there were some worries, but what the two periods have in common is the tendency to exaggerate the concerns. global credit was an issue. greece, remember, and europe, those were breakup issues. people did not know how to evaluate those. the tendency was to overreact. now, the problem is with china. who understands what is going on in china. will they hard land? oil prices -- how low can they go? it is the tendency to take what we do not understand and
exaggerate the fear to be on the safe side. scarlet: thank you, paul christopher for joining us. alix: credit suisse shares slumping after huge quarterly losses. the ceo says he will turn it off -- turn it around. refuses martin shkreli to answer questions and has harsh words for commerce. -- the ceo of mcewen mining. ♪
restructuring charges led to billions in losses. scarlet: planting -- francine lacqua spoke with the ceo, tidjane thiam. disconnectwe have a from we see in the real economy -- if you look at the u.s., the lower oil price is good for the consumer. most of the gdp consumption -- i will never very from that position. it has put more money into the pockets of the consumer. consumer feels good. his house is worth more. he has much more money from the lower oil price. what is not happening is he is not yet spending. people need to feel bigger confidence. that is what the markets come into play. bigger conference into the future, so we actually spend the money. there is a overemphasis on the oil sector. if you look at the price of oil over a long period of time, decades, we've had a few years of abnormal levels around 100, and $35, $30, is the historic
average. to treat the return to an historic average as a major crisis -- francine: you think the correlation between the price of oil and the markets is wrong? mr. thiam: well, the markets is reading the wrong thing. we feel strongly the price of oil is low because of oversupply. the market is reading a lack of demand and a slowdown of the global economy. strategy byis a major oil producers to drag the old price down. you have high inventory. you haveiran coming, new suppliers coming -- it is classic supply and demand. we do not see that as an indicator of a world crisis, and, again, banks -- large international banks will have $4 trillion in additional capital compared to 2008. so, you have no threat in the global financial system because the balance sheets are strong.
it is a world economy. yes, there will always be a crisis here and there, but we think most of the world's oil-importing. using the numbers at an historic high. consumers in europe feel good. they have additional purchasing power. consumers in the u.s. feel good. in countries like china and india, lower oil is good for them. it has an effect on investment. capital expenditures have been cut, and that is having a ripple night, --t that that-net, it will not have an effect. francine: how much have you lost from oil trading? mr. thiam: it is difficult to modify, the we will say 50% is from the oil sector. -- 15% is in the oil sector. francine: does that mean because of market volatility you have to step up and accelerate? mr. thiam: [indiscernible]
treated with additional pressure, we are front-loading the cost savings. we will announce this morning we 1.2 billion of savings. when we sold the u.s. private bank, we saved about $700 million. confident that the $3.5 billion will be met. scarlet: that was credit suisse ceo tidjane thiam earlier on bloomberg. alix: julie hyman has a check on company movers. looking at gopro. by 9%.shares fall there have been so many questions about this company and its sustainability. it came out with preliminary
sales well below analyst estimates. it has had to cut product on its -- prices on its latest product. it has products coming this year, including the hero 5 and a drone, but they have not realized yet. the negative sales outlook is weighing on the shares. i want to look at my bloomberg here, at the short interest in the stock. short interest is at 43% a float. it is an incredibly high number. it has climbed, and client, and client. as the -- it has climbed and climbed, and client. some have made money on who short of the stock. other countries making news -- ice international exchange -- the stock is down, even though ahead of came in estimates, but analysts say it was due to a lower tax rate.
we have been talking about the theme of oil companies and their earnings -- what they are doing with their cash. weatherford international came out with numbers and talked about its cash flow, saying it is boosting its production for 2016 cash flow. it brought in more cash than it spent in 2015 for the first time since 2010, so it is being rewarded. alix: thank you so much, julie hyman. scarlet: coming up, martin shkreli's smirk strikes again. the pharmaceuticals bad boy invoked the fifth amendment. we will discuss why. ♪
of the pharmaceutical representatives being questioned for the price of drugs, but he did not say much. mr. shkreli: on the advice of counsel, i invoke my fifth amendment privilege against self-incrimination, and respectfully decline to answer your question. scarlet: let's head to bloomberg radio with cory johnson and carol massar. carol: thank you. we want to talk about martin shkreli and his testimony, or lack thereof on capitol hill. geiger,oined by keri our financial times reporter. it played out like i expected. we knew he was going to plead the fifth. what was notable to you? keri: what was notable was when you take away the media noise around his actions or what he does and does not do, you still have the noise of what the general public will be demanding.
evoking theshkreli fifth amendment is on the advice of his attorney. unprecedented to switch counsel in the middle of the case. we have seen it before, especially with insider trading cases, but apparently he was not listening completely to his attorney because he immediately got on twitter and started saying things about congress. i just felt like he was --martin i felt he wasrol: dying to say something. keri: there was a lawmaker that made a plea that said instead of acting like this, can you be a force for change. carol: because it is not just his company. keri: it is not just his company. these processes are big -- these hearings -- we have seen them with many wall street banks, many other companies, they are big name and shame
opportunities, but it leads open the opportunity of what drug copies are going to do, because eventually they will have to decide if it is worth getting dragged through the mud by lawmakers to keep drug pricing strategies in play. cory: the tweets are amazing. for example, here is one. keri: immediately when he walks out of the room. cory: "hard to accept these imbeciles represent the people in our government." keri: it seemed like he was thinking that. i cannot read his mind, but the look on his face during the congressional testimony definitely had that, kind of, it. smear on it does not help his legal case. everyone has to remember he has been indicted on a number of towns of security fraud on how he managed one of his previous companies, and those are serious charges. all of these issues play into what will we do about drug
prices, and what is the legal fate of martin shkreli at the end of the day? martin shkreli we did catch up with his attorney -- carol: we did catch up with his attorney. of --n all of the facts are ultimately disclose, everyone will recognize mr. villain,kreli is not a a bad boy. at the end of the story, he is a hero. cory: a hero? carol: we have someone on earlier, and we're talking about it on bloomberg radio -- he texted me, and said it was fascinating to see him get grilled by congress -- the folks who is an action allows predatory drug pricing and there is to minutes drug industry lobbying that goes on. keri: that is what i said at the beginning. once you clear the noise about martin shkreli, the person, there is a fundamental way the system works.
there is nothing illegal about that right now. pointthat is exactly the being mentioned. congress, maybe, is trying to get there through this dog and pony show that today was. keri: yeah, it is a way to go more transparency on an issue that has become very important to voters, constituents, people in washington, advocacy groups. so, it is definitely a step in the right direction, even if there are limited affect on what it can achieve. carol: what is the next step for him? keri: he will have to go through the process. i do not know what his plans are in terms of pleading were going to trial it i think he has --icated he will push -- try or go to trial. i think he has indicated he will push through to trial. there is a lot of evidence that appears to be there.
he has some major legal hurdles ahead of him. if he were convicted, he would definitely face prison time. carol: cap fascinating story to watch. -- a fascinating story to watch. keri geiger, thank you. stuff, thank you. carol massar and cory johnson of bloomberg radio. martin shkreli is blowing up on twitter. alix: yes. we are looking at it. still ahead, gold extending his longest rally in five months. does it have anything to do with lowered expectations for fed hikes in 2016? ♪
headlines. mark crumpton has those from the newsroom. mark: michigan lawmakers have moved quickly to start approving $30 million to help pay the water bills of flint residents facing a light-contaminated water supply. the bill passed unanimously in the senate one day after governor rick schneider formally announced the plan. the water supply with switched from detroit water to the flint river in 2014, but the water was not properly treated, leading to corrosion of pipes. u.s. secretary of state john kerry says syrian peace talks will resume. negotiations were suspended yesterday for at least three weeks after syrian forces made major progress with a new offensive against rebel-held areas. secretary john kerry says the u.s. is pledging more than nine to $25 million to be dedicated to syria's refugees. secretary kerry: this morning i talked to foreign minister lebron off, and we are engaged
in a discussion on how to, cease-fires, specifically, as well as some confidence-building steps to deliver humanitarian assistance. mark: the syrian forces are being backed by russian airstrikes. secretary kerry called on russia to honor a you and resolution requiring the halt of airstrikes on civilians. members of the u.s. congress anxious to hear from martin hikeli about a drug price in a company he acquired, but he refused to answer any questions before a house panel saying he was exercising his fifth amendment right against self-incrimination. a penny just got a little cheaper to make, but it still costs more than one cent. the governor -- government got a break from collapsing metals prices. pennies are made almost entirely of zinc, and the u.s. mint says
last year in each called a little more than 1.4 cents to make, down 14% from 2014. as recently as 2011, the penny to mint.st 2.5 cents those 2400 -- 24 hours a day powered by 2400 newsrooms in 150 news bureaus around the world. alix: oil prices have sunk 20% since -- 70% since 2014. boone pickens told bloomberg where he sees rices going. absent recession, you will be 50, $60 a barrel by the end of the year because you shut down rigs all over the world. you are down now, in the united states, with oil drilling rigs -- 1609 twofrom $16 under 500 rigs.
he will see a decline of production fast, but watch out for a recession. stephanie: "watch out for a recession," and if a recession hits, what does that mean for you and your position? mr. pickens: right now, i do not have a position. i am just sitting here waiting for the opportunity to come back into this oil market. matt -- back that hold on -- up. you are sitting predominantly in cash now? mr. pickens: yes. matt: what signs do you need to see to get back in, and how would you go about it? $26.19kens: i believe was the low. i do nothing we're going to go back there unless recession, ok? i think the low is in. don't get in a rush here.
you will get 20 of opportunity. the market will be volatile. he will not go straight up. we know that. so, there will be good entry points. surel not reenter -- i am -- until we start to draw on inventories. that is a key point. byrne.: it is barbara i have a question for you. in the last 20 years, we've seen oil prices declined by 35%, up to 75%, but on those occasions we have seen opec and saudi arabia in particular decrease production. what is different this time question mark if they do not move, how long does it take, since the u.s. production has gone up so much -- for us to stabilize, and in particular, given that you have talking about how they will shut down -- wells,ll not drive the you have bankruptcies, and in typical production, people will run down the wells. what type of impact do you see from that? mr. pickens: the wells we have
drilled are shale wells and a decline rapidly. missed on the decline. they did not decline quite as fast as i thought they were going to. the decline is there. it will happen. what happened to us is the saudi's made us a swing producer. they had been the swing producer for years. they would balance the market, cut production, and stabilize the price. that is where we are today. we do not have any mechanism in america to say ok, shut down production, and it will just come from the declined production. matt: the last few days we have heard talks with russia and opec suppliers. do you think that they will actually come together and cut
production in a substantial way? look at what it has cost. they are getting tired of it. i think at some point, maybe june, you will see if there has not been a recovery, in june, they will cut. that is when the next meeting is. scarlet: that was boone pickens, bp commodities founder. alix: average bond yields are falling so much so that investors in sovereign funds other than the usc fields -- yields that outweigh. ofrlet: what is the impact negative rates on a commodity like gold? join us as rubber mcewen. good to see you.
what is the impact of negative rates on gold? mr. mcewen: i think more people will move into gold. where'd you get your money -- you are losing money in a negative yield keeping it in that spot. alix: it seems some of the rhetoric is when you have a negative yield it is a de facto currency war, and the dollar will get pushed higher because of that, and that could be considered a risk for gold in that environment. mr. mcewen: i think we are at a point similar to the period of where gold was moving up in dollar terms, but not other currencies, and today it is moving up in other currencies, but not the dollar. there comes a point where the confidence is lost and it starts moving in all currencies, and i think that is near at hand. of the: for most commodities sector, it is supply-driven. dynamics are being driven by an oversupply. what is the case in gold? mr. mcewen: there is not an
oversupply. you see cutbacks in production. production will be flat, turning negative. there is no money being spent on expiration. no new projects. most of the large for capital projects have been deferred. you are just seen a rationalization of the industry. so, you're not going to have a lot of excess product coming on the market, unless, a central bank was selling, but most of the central banks right now are buying. not most of them, but the ones beene bric countries have buying. alix: what kind of rate-hike cycle is priced into the gold market because you have a chart of the fed funds futures rate versus gold, and they are flipped, inversely correlated. it is saying we probably have more quantitative easing coming at us. alix: what if that is wrong? mr. mcewen: then you will lose on your investment. [laughter] we have gone for a long period razore on zero interest
close to zero interest rates, and it has not improve the economy. say we are moving the economy along come but it is not happening, and people say where do i put my money right now? the only place it has been coming is the dollar, but there are some questions. alix: the interesting thing about the industry is as gold continues to find its footing and potentially the next leg up, oil companies, copper companies, they are getting hammered. they are going through what you guys went through a few years ago. where do you see the industry? see m&a,a -- will we default? in the last few years you have seen large breakdowns of asset basis. there has been rationalization of the industry. discretionary expenditures have been cut. we are near the bottom and coming up. i can we are past the bottom already. and i just see it increasing from here. our industry is -- everybody is focused on the dollar price of
gold, but they are missing the fact that in many other currencies gold is at, or near their all-time highs. scarlet: if you look at gold prices so far this year, so far this year up a .9%, the best-performing commodity in the commodities index. alix: your target? mr. mcewen: i will go back to the old target, 2000. we have been talking about this for years. alix:, on. mr. mcewen: i got close. i will say 1500, 6000. alix: thank you. scarlet: coming up, what is next for the canadian oil sands producer. and -- alix: and women's conferences are all the rage, but who is benefiting? scarlet: and our american still
welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am scarlet fu. alix: and i am --excuse me. scarlet: she is alex deal. julie hyman -- alix steel. julie hyman has the latest. julie: a number of companies out with earnings. in company overall came ahead of estimates, but specifically a -- it looks like cardiac rhythm management sales were up 1%. product launches were delayed. a mayor stores bergen, for its
part, cutting the backend of its forecast. it looks at that is what is to blame for his decline. 2016 earnings-per-share forecasts trailing estimates. are of the health insurers seeing gains, but they are relatively small. as for the large-cap drugmakers, we see them declined, actually. there is talk about pricing, and even though money of the larger companies have not been targeted by congress or other critics of the drug pricing practices, we've not seen them under pressure. scarlet: what about valeant specifically after their tough day? companye heard that criticized by congress, yet shares are up, up by about 4%. of course, they have not done well leading up to this. they have been battered by all of these concerns. it is interesting that even as
they are at the center of all this talk about drug pricing, that the shares are doing well. turingde note, pharmaceuticals is not publicly traded. there is no way to track the affect of the news. alix: just go on twitter. thank you. astin trudeau -- this comes canadian oilsands giant suncor posted write-downs. scarlet: pamela richie joins us now. pamela, most oil companies are reporting losses are major cuts. why is suncor a surprise? pamela: other companies around the world are struggling -- all the major oil company's are, but suncor has just announced in the last couple of weeks they are buying canadian oilsands, and
shall is about to close his deal with bg as well. this is happening, but it is somewhat of a surprise to people watching the share price of suncor, and watching the stock, that after doing such a large acquisition, it is now reporting this to billion-dollar loss. there is also an fx hit on u.s.-denominated debt. steve williams, the ceo of suncor, said on the call today, even though he is not exactly enjoying the period of low oil prices, he is seeing it as much of an opportunity as he is a threat to the company. the acquisition we saw for canadian oilsands certainly may not be the final one. alix: exactly, but shareholders are iffy on that call at the moment. tell us about the recent blow to industry.ng
pamela: shell coming out with his earnings and reporting on that within earnings. there was a discussion about investments in the lng industry in canada. on the west coast, the industry is trying to be built. we really do not have one. there is a terminal that needs to be built, also said that the structure. shell is one of the main companies meant to be involved. about 20 copies are involved. delay ays they will decision until 2017, which is not that far away. the lingering concern is that canada's lng industry will not get off the ground. traditionally, canada sold export,gas to its main they nodded states, and we all know what has gone on with the gas market there. it is very important for gas producers to be able to get their production through pipelines, terminals, and off to asian customers. it is looking less and less likely that that political dream
is going to come to the four -- fore. scarlet: you spoke to the premier of newfoundland, how is that province handling the drop in oil? pamela: it is more and more difficult for new poland to -- newfoundland to diversify. they have offshore production. they are continuing to pump the oil from the deep water, however the province itself, and really, the coffers of the province, being massively hit by this. ,he concern is all of the eggs or most of the eggs have been in the basket. towards him does not pay all of the bills. scarlet: pamela richie, thank you. alix: coming up, the rise of the women's industrial complex --
welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am scarlet fu. alix: and i am alix steel. scarlet: time for the bloomberg business flash. alix: airline traffic rose by with thesince 2010, pledge in oil prices leading to cheaper fares and a 6.5 increase in traffic. demand grew fastest in the asia-pacific region. scarlet: average long-term mortgage rates falling once again for a fifth straight week. freddie mac says the average mortgage split from 3.79% to
3.72% last week. the 15-year rate also declined. alix: and a penny got cheaper to make. it costs more than one cent. the government got a break from collapsing metal prices. pennies are made almost entirely out of zinc, and the u.s. mint says last year each cost a little more than 1.4 cents to make. as recently as 2011, the penny called almost -- cost almost 2.5 cents to mint. empowerment women's conferences are everywhere from women.'s summit to ted alix: they can be highly profitable. registration costs could set you back as much as $10,000, but how effective are they in making a difference for women? it is the cover story of
"bloomberg businessweek. -- she look aitor halter. what do they get out of it question mark -- out of it? heelah: those willing -- those women value the ability to do the kind of networking, and a couple have said they had never met a another woman who had a stay-at-home husband to support the career until they went to a conference like that because they are so isolated in mail-dominated industries. it was not until they went to a high level gathering that they were able to bond with other women in that situation. scarlet: is that when they talk about -- other panels about the husband being a stay-at-home dad? thelah: it depends on
panel. the fortune one focused on leadership issues and the personal, intimate stuff gets talked about like crazy in between the official session, so at the dinner table, in the hallway, at this ball in the morning. but leadership council -- leadership conferences or something they do it companies anyway. they like to say they present those issues from the perspective of a woman who has had to fight their way up, and yet, that would discussions about how to get more women onto boards, the challenges of managing an industrious company when you are a woman, but it is a -- very business focused. alix: if you wind up going, is et result, or is it just getting up in front of people and chatting? sheelah: i know a lot of people
that found clients -- lawyers that found clients, but there are other ones that are more self-help oriented, and more about actualizing your own potential, being inspired, getting advice for how to expand your career. they are focused on younger women, women earlier in their careers, and a lot of them want advice and guidance. they look around and maybe they do not see as many role models as they would like, and they want advice. scarlet: so, it sounds like it could be more personal. have any of the conferences you have attended or that you know of have connection with policy changes? sheelah:lhatkar -- no, and that inspired me to look at this -- there has been talk about expanding women leaders, getting them into conferences, and are very little follow-ups. you feel good, you tear up, shall obama gives a rousing speech, it is an amazing expanse, but then you leave and that is it. you are stuck with the same problems, and there is no
discussion about how to move the conversation along, which would involve, yes, perhaps some lobbying, talking to your representatives -- something more political. scarlet: so, year after year, the discussions are pretty much the same. sheelah: some of them yes, and if you had a line showing the number of conferences it would be shooting up, but the gender pay gap has been the same for a long time. i thought that was interesting. alix: lagged effect there. thank you for joining us. sheelah kolhatkar from "bloomberg businessweek." scarlet: coming up in the next hour -- time to make the donuts. nigel travis to about whether or not americans are still running on dunkin' donuts. ♪
11:00 a.m. in san francisco. welcome to "bloomberg markets." david: from bloomberg's headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am david gura. the dollar continues its selloff. shkreli rally -- martin discussion in front of congress. bloomberge go to the terminal with julie hyman. julie? julie: we have a little bit of using this because of a back-and-forth we are seeing. it has really been changing very