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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  February 4, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EST

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good afternoon. i am betty liu. stocks are struggling for direction today. bouncing around between gains and losses. dayrsing and it ends the with another decline. it is jobs day tomorrow. what does them nervous market -- were up in just the past week we learned that today. --o, a ceo smirking his way >> on the advice of counsel, i invoke my sixth amendment privilege against self-incrimination and respectfully decline to answer your question. betty: we are one hour away from the close of traits. stocks have been bouncing around
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a bit. no real direction here. julie hyman has the latest. perhaps investors waiting for the jobs report. >> i think that is a safe that, people waiting for the next shoe to drop or shoe to kick or two helpings or hurt things. penny on what the numbers show. a tightave been in range throughout the day. it is interesting. you see the tao of 2/10 of 1%. what you see largely today is the smaller stocks have been outperforming blue chips. you look at the s&p mid-cap index, small-cap index, the russell now falling back a little bit here are largely today, we have seen an outperformance from the smaller stocks. throughoutp itself, the session we have seen an amount of housing around and you can eat here crossing above and below many times throughout the day.
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it has been a jerking a long kind of day. >> it has been. and commodities, it is not just about oil today. >> it is not just about oil but oil itself has seen a lot of volatility today. all over the map as well. similar to what we are seeing in stocks except he outcome is worse and we see more of a decline. in metals prices, that is a story we have been watching today because metals have been holding up well today. gold is higher. even though stocks have been volatile and at times have all seemsising, there still to be an appetite for safety in this market. oneperception is gold is store of that safety and comfort futures are also higher. on the flipside, the dollar continues to trend lower. that is one of the things helping the metal even if it is not helping oil today interestingly. the bloomberg dollar index now down, reflecting this trepidation about u.s. economic
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growth. >> thank you, julie. let's get a check of the headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: high-ranking state officials were aware of surgeon -- surging legionnaires, earlier than previously revealed. governor rick snyder says he only learned of the spike a few days before sharing the information with the public. but the e-mails obtained by the group, progress michigan, and shared by -- with the associated press revealed the office was aware of it since last march. virus,d by the zika people can now get free test. so far, 11 new yorkers have tested positive. traveled to brazil and other places where mosquito bites have been linked to the infection.
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actressors ordered an be located and brought in for question -- questioning. they want to interview as part of an investigation into possible money-laundering involving the actress's to kill a business. the actress has not been accused of any crime. the des moines register is audit ofor a complete the iowa democratic caucuses. in light of hillary clinton's razor thin victory. 2/10eat bernie sanders by of 1%. an editorial in the paper reads in part, what happened monday night at the democratic caucuses was a debacle. democracy at the local party messy, ande slow, obscure. the refusal to undergo scrutiny or allow for an appeal reeks of autocracy. republicans, most notably ben carson and donald trump, complain about impropriety during the republican caucuses.
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the number of islamic state fighters has dropped in iraq and syria but is rising in libya. u.s. offensive -- defense to 20als say there are 19 fighters in iraq and syria compared to an earlier range of 20 to 30,000. those backup recent claims by military officials that american-led coalition airstrikes are taking a toll on islamic state findings. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world are i'm mark crumpton. back to you. betty: thank you. the january jobs report is due out tomorrow morning. the first one is 2000. wall street economist expect the employment rate to remain at 5%. the latest survey reveals most the laborrovement in market to probably cooled down. joining us now for more is a bloomberg intelligence chief u.s. economist. from san francisco, andrew chamberlain, a chief economist
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from glassdoor. carl, let's start with you. what is the magic number? north of 150. we are definitely going to be a sharp downshift in the pace of hiring than we were. those were almost absurd the high numbers in 2000 four, especially when the economy was growing less than 1%. see downshifts in part reflecting a slower pace of economic growth and partly reflecting a late onset to winter. i know you want to suck -- throw something to economists but if you look at sectors like housing housing completions, they were basically flat to down in the fourth quarter. yet you saw the pace of hiring in the sector double. was 70 degrees, the christmas eve on record for new york city. it meant that a lot of seasonal layoffs were postponed and they
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got pushed into january, which saw inig gains you october and november and december will be taken away in january and february. the key for economists will be to determine how much of that is seasonal volatility and how much of a is a reflection slower pace of economic activity. betty: would you largely agree with what carl just said? >> i would it we are in the late part of the economic cycle and things are generally slowing. of thesay that reports decline at the labor market are exaggerated, to say the least are fundamentally, every indication that we have so far in official survey numbers and the kinds of real-time figures a watched, really still show strong market. although we did see a slight dip at the end of the year, probably normal -- normal seasonal activity, job openings have bounced back in early february.
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i know there are a lot of concerns now but fundamentally, no sign yet that the labor market is taking that step. carl: eileen little toward not just because he is sitting next me but because of the data we have seen in the last few days. look at the productivity numbers for instance this morning. they point to a slowing economy. >> that is right. the labor market is always going to lag behind the real economy. ,ecause of payrolls and wages those are the last thing employers are going to change when it goes south. no question. closest thing we have to an official labor market statistic is unemployment claims. we claims for new people going on unemployment. i know they were up slightly in the latest report. it is still well below symbolic 300,000 figure. still no clear evidence of a smoking gun of recession.
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>> let me bring it forward to the fed. what does the fed do with these jobs numbers? produceumbers could some short-term anxiety on wall street and in the potential implications for federal reserve policy. ironically, if we get some great numbers, it will confuse a lot of people. >> it would take a lot of great numbers, like what we saw in the fourth quarter, 250 plus, to cause that reassessment. i think i did sector forecast and forecasters alike are grappling with the slower pace of growth in the economy. quarter, the fourth and signs that the rebound in the fourth quarter is not as strong as they were hoping. probablyh targets are a little too optimistic and will probably have to be dialed back. misses.e had some
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also with growth as well. the markets are pushing the fed almost out of the picture for 2016. the fed does not want to be out of the picture. and ire going to reassess think march is largely out of the picture. the economy growing back at trends. before they're willing to consider additional rate increases. record for q1, which pushes us to april where we get a look at that. have evidence that maybe we are cooling but not rolling out of bed. they: given your view on labor market, more optimistic than you here with other atnomist, are you in a camp goldman sachs who says people actually are underestimating the fed. he says bond yields are going to rise above 3% in the fed is on track to raise rates. class i am definitely optimistic because as a labor economist, i
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am not a professional forecaster. we look at what is actually going on. economists are family -- largely forrible the same reason a civil engineer is terrible at bridge collapses. as soon as we see that is happening, we take policy action to reverse that. today, when you look fundamentally at what is happening with wage growth, though it is slow and has been slowly accelerating and seems to be fairly broad-based, we have not seen a negative jobs report in almost six years. group of younge millennial's who have never seen a bad jobs report and they have been in expansion their entire careers. that may change in the coming months. from the real-time stuff we're looking at in the labor market, we do not see any kind of pull back at all yet. apply maybe they could for a job as an economist. >> it is a great market or a super bowl conception is.
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right.that is super bowl this weekend. all right andrew, thank you. glassdoor chief economist in san francisco. and karl, our bloomberg television chief u.s. economist. shkreli invoking his fifth amendment privilege as he refuses to answer questions before congress about drug rising. shulman said -- showmanship aside, will congress take any action to force congress to price their drugs differently? viacom,rman of cbs and longtime ceo ascends to the top position. show assure is rising to turnaround. how long will investors give him? and as we had to break, you look at the trade on the dow. and hasd 149 points given up most of the gains as you can see. ♪
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betty: good afternoon and welcome back. i'm betty liu. markets trading right now. it has been decidedly a volatile day, but one without a lot of direction. you can see the s&p has pre-much different in and out of positive territory. it is the same thing you could say for the dow, up triple digits early in the morning. finally, the nasdaq has been solidly in the red for a while. is stillee it essentially trying to balance off the low of the session but still off to the red. time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. sports authority preparing to file for bankruptcy. faces a debt payment due in 10 days.
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capital management deal to reorganize. mapping out a plan to close as many as 200 of its 450 stores. southwest airlines says it will with -- thect pilots rejected the last contract in november. airline traffic rose last year for the most in 2010. the plunge and fuel prices lead to a cheaper fare which led to a percent increase. demand grew fastest in the asia-pacific region. businessour bloomberg flash update. earlier today, martin shkreli was brought before a committee investigating drug prices. however, he refused to answer any of the committee's questions. >> on the advice of counsel, i invoke my fifth amendment
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privilege against self-incrimination and respectfully decline to answer your question. betty: for more, i want to bring in keri geiger who has been following the hearing. securitiesin the case, separate from the drug case. are they connected in some way? >> essentially, martin shkreli became well-known for running a company that dramatically increase the price of a life-saving drug. completely separately from that, a company he had previously run, he had been accused of basic we defrauding some of his investors of that and was indicted on several accounts of security fraud in brooklyn over the last month. there are separate issues. a legal path of martin shkreli charges, but rational hearing is of course what his congress advocacy
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groups and american public will really do about the whole issue of how life saving drugs are price. name and today was a shame exercise to draw more scrutiny and transparency to the issue that has become a big deal. because of the way he presented the issue presents itself with the public paired >> a lot of naming and shaming and there was that reallynt caught people's attention. let's play that. >> is a pronounced? >> yes, sir. >> you can answer some questions. that did not discriminate -- incriminate you. i want you to understand you are welcome to answer questions and not all of your answers will of debt -- subject you to incrimination. you understand that? >> i intend to follow the advice of my counsel and not yours.
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>> i'm curious if his behavior there will have any impact on this case at all and on his overall perception in public. >> if he goes to trial, it obviously can have influence even though it is not supposed to. after you are charged with a crime, when you do save ins in either theted to crime or the companies you are running, related to whatever the legal issue is, it could potentially have an impact on the case used against you. you have to be careful. his advice was basically, the client on these matters. he did not testify in congress and he immediately got on probably in the car and started tweeting and he had in congress about that.
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the advice was not completely taken. you should listen on those matters and not talk. betty: he did not talk on the hill but he certainly did probably in his uber on the way out. john mica, a committee member, talked about his appearance and this is generally the action -- reaction from the committee leaders. quite sit was an opportunity to hear what is going on and why he did this. how can you justify those huge increases? he is trying to make himself the poster boy and relishes the attention. i also pointed out other countries are doing several -- similar things. i cited increases. betty: in terms of next for congress, is there anything we can do or not really? >> the issue of dramatic and considered unfair drug price increases is important and it creates more awareness of the issue and creates congressional concentrated attention to the
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issue. there is not a lot they can do at this point. there is an incredibly strong role a lot of fighting all these changes every step of the way you did use the american public a better idea what is going on in the story will go on on yonder martin shkreli. other companies do this. it is not just this very iconic person in the media. it has an impact on many people across the world. betty: thank you so much. we will be right back with more, with options insight on bloomberg market. ♪
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julie: joining me for today's options insight is momentum stock strategist at -- he's joining me in chicago. a day where we are drifting along and nothing is seeming to give stocks direction. it is not coming from oil today.
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are we getting the sense people are just waiting for the jobs report tomorrow? what are people waiting for? >> it is weird. for a while, i felt we were lose -- moving lockstep with oil. happens at different levels. would getst year, we down to $70 and once it dipped below, everyone tarted running around screaming with their hair on fire. level is like $30. if we are trading below $30, we will lockstep with oil. once above that, we muddle on through and do our thing. ist will be dangerous here when someone tries to go in and go along in the stock market because they have seen a pop and oil over $30. they will dive in head first and there will not deepwater in the pool. it will be like a wily coyote cartoon. classy think we will not see any sustained gains from here on out in docs? >> you're right, i think we just
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muddle through. i see january 20 as a capitulation low down in 1812. i think through earnings season, we muddle through looking for the next shoe to drop and we do not know what it will be. the s&p justor bouncing around 1850 in 1924 the next couple of weeks here at >> trade today is on nvidia, the chipmaker. you have got a bullish trade. walk us through the trade and tell us why. >> i am very bullish here because it is more than just a supery that makes gpu for -- super nerds to planet computers. they are getting into autonomous driving. google could not even figure out glasses. how will they figure out a car? what they are trying to do is baby steps parity will not just wake up one day and it will be
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total recall with robots driving everywhere. work one have got to getting people to stop rear ending people. stop the car full of teenagers from texting and hitting you. who better to do that than nvidia and volvo? the trade i am looking at right they have earnings on february 17. i will buy a call that expires on february 19, and i will look at 2850. they will caught me -- cost me about the dollar point -- $1.3. the stock was trading at $33 not one ago. >> thank you for talking to us. we appreciated and we will be right back here on bloomberg market. ♪
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live, i am betty liu
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peerless check the headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: new figures just released show millions of people signed up for individual health insurance under the affordable care law. they wait accelerated for most people to buy 2016 obama care coverage. some states operate their own finance systems and extend the .eadline's members of congress were eager to hear from martin shkreli from aevere ice hikes drug sold by a company he acquired. the pharmaceutical executive appeared to answer any questions saying he was exercising his fifth amendment right against self-incrimination. benjamin spoke to reporters after. >> the gentleman on the committee who discussed the fifth amendment, had no idea what he was talking about given the state of the law as i understand it to be.
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invoke theright to as unfair and inappropriate. >> shkreli is facing charges of securities fraud. hillary clinton is not the only secretary of state to have -- sified information colin powell and senior staff to former secretary of state condoleezza rice received classified information in personal e-mail account or the state department and inspector general say 12 e-mails being reviewed contain classified, national security information. and 10 two rice's immediate staff. hillary clinton has tried to distance herself from wall street but is still getting plenty of cash from the financial sector. analysis by the washington post reveals that by the end of december, mrs. clinton had received more than $21 million from the financial sector and
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nearly half of those donations came from tina -- two financiers, george so are us -- george soros and donald sussman. the golden state warriors were welcome to the white house today, writing a high note after another outstanding game against the wizards in washington. curry had 36 points at the half and finished with 51. he made 13 of his first 14 step -- shots. global news to you four hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in one 100 50 news bureaus around the world that i am mark crumpton. back to you. than 30 minutes now to the close of trade and as we mentioned, really no direction and outocks dipping in of negative territory, including the nasdaq. abigail doolittle has more. >> the volatility is certainly
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one of today's big stories. nasdaq only fell back by half a percent late in the morning. here at the nasdaq, mainly in the red because of the big dragon big tech including alphabet, facebook, microsoft, and more recently apple. all of these companies reported december quarters and has had amazon, netflix, and intel. mixed at best. facebook is the winner. it is the only one of all of the big tech names that right now is up year to date to her let's see if that can hold if time progresses. today's big winner is yahoo!, shares up sharply after mark upgraded the stock saying the outlook is so weak that the company may have to consider seriously some of the strategic but they are
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keeping underclothes guard. the stock itself has been testing support quite recently, but there is a series of bearish lower lows across the last year suggesting the test of support may not be successful and there could be another like lower ahead. thank you. now to media, viacom has a new chairman. the position was given to the ceo. the marks an end to official reign over the media company he has controlled for almost 30 years are we talk more about this with bloomberg news's bureau chief and also in new york is paul sweeney. start with you. why did the stock fall after? >> i think the expectation was maybe viacom would point a more independent chairman which would facilitate some type of chair
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around the world. we know they media industry is in the middle of a consolidation phase, and that viacom would be a part of it. if you had an independent chairman, it might facilitate it took the air out of the sails for those traders. >> how have viacom performed? >> not great. it was one of the worst performing media stocks, last year down 5%. they have got a problem in that their channels, mtv, comedy central, nickelodeon, washed by younger people, those most likely to watch videos and other formats online. they have been losing viewers. betty: they have been falling behind with digital strategies as well. really withanges him taking over as chairman? >> one way to look at it is it is a ticking clock.
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only six to nine months before there is another uproar and they say they need results now. betty: so what does that mean for investors? paul: they need to see some improvement in the core business. you talk about simply ratings, ratings at their networks. they have been playing catch-up. it requires them to spend a lot more money on programming, which they have been doing. people will want to see better ratings translated into better revenue and earnings. at the does not happen pace investors want, i think pressure will build on the board to do something. it is an industry that is consolidating a lot of people feel there are valuable assets at icon that are not being managed at their potential. betty: an acquisition or break up? >> there is speculation these
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aspects, some might find them attractive, whether it is another media company or a technology company. the second-largest shareholder of viacom mention tech companies like google and amazon and other media companies. i would argue in a consolidating media space, there would be no shortage of demand for these assets. they do not come on the market soon. as chris mentioned, i think there will be a short window for management to turn things around and post that are numbers. betty: what happens to her? chris: she said in a statement today she intends to keep the pressure on. do wants the stock rise to better. she lost today 10-1. she is not going anywhere. betty: why didn't she want him to become chairman? sheer official reason was
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and police are on this family trust, seven members there, that will ultimately control cbs and viacom. she thought it was a conflict of interest, which is why she took herself out from the chairman's job as well. imagine the stock price has been an issue. it has to do with the stock price ultimately. >> we obviously do not know the status, but i think the assumption is he is not doing well and the control of the company probably sooner rather than label -- rather than later will shift trust. atit to promote the legacy redstone or is it really an incentive to maximize shareholder value? i hope it is the latter and i know a lot of shareholders do as well. thank you so much, paul
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and chris. much more is ahead in the next 20 minutes of bloomberg markets. is the growth story over for duncan rands? sales lost in the fourth quarter, and the ceo is joining us next to explain who the chain plans to keep the pressure on, rivals like starbucks? inume is at its highest 2011. we have got earnings coming out, among those, lions gate, and countingedin kerry -- on mobile. shares are down about 17% in the past year. ♪
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betty: good afternoon. a quick check on what markets are trading right now. we're talking about the much all day long. it seems to have changed slightly. up 75w is now solidly points it also in the green. time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. -- oil companies most likely passed along to consumers. it would be phased in over five years to help pay for investments in clean infrastructure. the budget will be sent to congress next week. selecting buyout firms for the second round of bidding for his lighting division. blackstone is among the bidders. capital partners have dropped out of the option because of
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concerns over the outlook. , it could be about $5.6 billion. hasbro and mattel are holding talks of merging two of the worlds biggest toy market -- toymakers. the deal would bring together the owner of my little pony and furby brands with barbie and hot wheels. a potential transaction late last year and a company has on and off talks about a deal. the talks may not lead to one. with $10.7n compared billion. that is your bloomberg business flash update. for donuts, troubles may be brewing. reported achain surprise job in sales. investors seem sweet on the shares.
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a greater competition. i want to bring in nigel travis, who brings us from massachusetts. good to see you again. what happened in the latest quarter? nigel: we beat earnings. i was disappointed with the comps. i think we got a clear explanation of what happened. there has been a steady and long-term decline in sales in restaurants. a long-term migration to selling in grocery stores and online. earlier in 2015, we washed our own brand of takeout sensible markets -- and supermarkets. by 1.2% or 120 basis points. there was a little bit of an issue with warmer than normal
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weather. it give us an opportunity to refocus ourselves, our franchisees, back on the business. we have got a five-point plan designed to increase not only our comps but our transactions over the next year and subsequent years. part of your plan continuing to open new stores in the u.s. but also oversees? and some critics question whether you should be expanding so quickly when may be you need to refocus and look at your existing stores and make sure you can extract more profit and revenue out of those. our system is about 100% franchised. we are very pleased with our franchise margins. there are clearly headwinds like minimum wage. got a whole mitigation
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plan we have been discussing with our franchisees. they are focused on improving the margins. their profitability is the key driver of development. unlike many other chains out there, some of the burger chains touted around today, they have got declining store count. we grew 300 49 stores last year. we have given guidance for 400-3460 for the coming year in the usa streamhave a revenue driving new stores and we also want to drive calms, our new five-point plan. that is the u.s. internationally, we look at a separate business and we are excited about what is going on in china, despite lower gdp. china is still growing at something like 6.5%, the forecast for 2016. betty: might you be growing internationally for instance
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growing into a growth slump? most countries in the globalill betty: economy is not expected to rise more than 3% this year. nigel: you are right. one thing we talked about back in october was concerns about oil prices and concerns also about their high dollar price. i think oil was particularly a concern for the middle east. we have been watching that carefully and i watch it every day when i get up in the morning to see what is happening. i'm pleased to see some of the trends seem to be mitigated based on yesterday and today. it is a concern. the focus all the time is support our franchisees and make goodthere economics are and we supply that philosophy
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everywhere in the world. on the u.s.,ically there is a lot of competition. you mentioned some of the burger change -- chains. mcdonald's expanding to all-day breakfast. they not only expand their menus. they are also putting some price pressures. is donald's, a cup of coffee one dollar. dunkin' donuts, i walked in the other day, it was something like 1.5 dollars. for a cup of coffee. your coffee is priced higher. you are feeling the price competition. yes, there is price competition out there. part of our plan, the third point of our plan is what we call smart pricing with our franchisees. valuell see more campaigns this year where we plan things like free national value campaigns. the whole idea is to get people in and trade them up to things
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like doughnuts, some of our breakfast sandwiches, and franchisees like that approach. be value, value, value. we do not believe that is a recipe that works for our franchisees. it is about improving franchise margins. i think the balanced approach meets the fact that dunkin' donuts sits in the middle. for the people who want that is a real quality item and something of value, we can cater for both of them. youy: so i'm hearing from there is no dollar menu coming out for dunkin' donuts. nigel: we will have a little more focus on value. there will not be a dollar menu. we continue to look for ways to innovate. we will look for great new breakfast vouchers and we have got a great one coming up in a month or so, but we will not be all-day value because we do not need to be.
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that is not the answer for our franchisee margins. that is very important, as part of our development program. thank you so much for joining us. really appreciate it. dunkin brands ceo. -- lookinglistening to push into the green and finish positive. ♪
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to marketsome back are closing and stocks are climbing to finish positive. a second day of gains here. julie hyman has more on the market desk. julie: the s&p and nasdaq are still slightly positive here. the s&p only getting 1.5 points. the nasdaq gaining over two. seven point five minutes left in the session and we will see if
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they can indeed hang onto those gains. we have seen a lot of bouncing around, even in a tight range today. the s&p, you see that volatility even if it is in a tight range. multiple times throughout the day, above and below the line. the nasdaq remains the laggard. there you have the s&p chart. if you look at the major averages, you have got a pullback of 10% in the nasdaq, whereas the losses in the dow are now only about half that. we have seen weakness in big cap technology. some of the best-performing stocks, a mixture of reasons why. some of them came out with earnings and many more of them are commodities related. metals, oilg with prices have been bouncing around as well today. stocks have been resilient. on the losing side today, it has
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something to do with earnings. ice, all of them out with numbers that disappointed in one way or another. i mentioned oil prices, which have also shown a lot of volatility today, although now, more on the downside, down 1.7 percent. if i can mention the euro, we continue to see weakness in the dollar. the euro has been rising today versus the dollar. thank you so much. investors have been whipsawed by sharp fluctuation. the index has seen three multi-day declines of more than 1.5% and 22 trading sessions. what does that say about the market? our bloomberg stock reporter and volumes have been pretty high. >> we have seen the 50 day rolling average for the s&p 500 volume, the highest since december of 2011. it is quite elevated. the cause and effect can really be boiled down to the volatility
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you have been mentioning. that look andrs see price swings and they see opportunity. institutional investors who trade, large slots of shares will be more willing to participate in the market. it is a self fulfilling prophecy because the more volume he got, the sharper those prices are and there you go, more volatility means more opportunity to it is a snowball effect. who want to people participate in the market, a good sign. when things are looking risky or people are worried, -- >> is it a bullish sign? >> yes. that people are participating. of course, it matters which direction they are trading. these big selloffs like we mentioned, three occasions where we had multi-day so lots of 1.5%. for people constructive on the market, it is a nice buying opportunity and a lot of them already this year. at the median
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strategist forecast, we are still getting double-digit percentage increases in the s&p by the end of the year. it is possible some investors might see this as a time to get in there. betty: what do you reading today -- into today's trade question mark >> volatility. we have a service director grow at the slowest pace in two years. a weaker dollar that julie had mentioned, it boosted commodity prices and also boosted the appeal of these multinational companies that are reporting earnings right now. betty: all right, joe. thank you so much. that is it for bloomberg market day what did you miss and the market close is next. we are heading for a higher close. ♪
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>> we are moments away from the closing bell. i am scarlet fu. alix: i am scarlet fu.
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joe weisenthal is on assignment. u.s. stocks closing higher, oil erasing in advance, falling back a low $32 a barrel. we examine who is facing the biggest risks. >> the tipping point for recession. the biggest names tell us what the breaking point is. >> jobs day, the three charts you need to know before tomorrow's report. minute,gin with market lots of back and forth. crossed the breakeven line 11 times. ,t sounded like a volatile day but this one is muted. there w a


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