tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg February 4, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST
u.s. stocks closing higher, oil erasing in advance, falling back a low $32 a barrel. we examine who is facing the biggest risks. >> the tipping point for recession. the biggest names tell us what the breaking point is. >> jobs day, the three charts you need to know before tomorrow's report. minute,gin with market lots of back and forth. crossed the breakeven line 11 times. ,t sounded like a volatile day but this one is muted. there was a lot of
volatility in the currency market. a part of that was due to the dollar, the index below its 200 day moving average. it is that long-term trendline, at one point -- it is still off the august lows, but a lot of damage done. you also sell currency volatility soaring across the board. there is the dollar's slide versus the 200 day moving average. bankis where the central action seems to be playing out. this is where you're seeing a lot of action. we saw hasbro and mattel getting a big bump up in today's trading because they held talks about merging. bloomberg news learned that the two companies have been speaking about a possible deal, with
hasbro approaching mattel. the talks have been on-again and off-again. each company is vita $10 billion. at $10 billion. can you really believe are rallied that is driven by companies that could the short by the end of the day? scarlet: you deftly have rotation going on, some of the favorite trades fell apart at the end of last year, and that continue this year. today's market minutes. dive too take a deep look at the most important things we saw in the market. scarlet: let's start with what you have. alix: this is economic data that set the tone for the overall market today. by 3% in thefell
fourth quarter, the lowest level in two years. seen theis we haven't monster wage growth, right? people have less incentive to work harder. also, if you are a company, labor is so cheap, why invest in anything else? back to 1959, this is what we have seen in productivity. we have not seen levels as low since the 1980's, between 2% and 2.5%. scarlet: this speaks to structural changes versus cyclical issues, doesn't it? alix: definitely holding back the fed. scarlet: gold is no longer being held back. it is the best-performing commodity so far this year. it is up 9% since the end of last year. i will show you another chart that looks at the technicals of gold, above its long-term
trendline. the yellow line is the 200 day moving average, gold moved about that yesterday. this could be a sign that gold -- this rally -- is ready to keep and on its way down. the last three times that old has closed above its average price, what happened? about 4.6% on average the following month. -- fell about 4.6 on average the following month. alix: there are a lot of shorts in the gold come so much is short coming -- covering. all these charts and more on twitter. the chairman and chief investment officer of cumberland advisors joins us now. calls you madeet we want to talk about. scarlet: you started buying the energy complex through bts in
early november. where are we in the bottoming process for oil. >> i don't know that we bottomed, but we are cheap. when you come from 100 to 70, it's hard to go another 70 down unless you're a central bank. our view is that a major change happened in the fall, which is what triggered us from extreme underweight in energy to scaling into energy, and we have been doing it since november. the united states of america is now an exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas. i think of it in the following way, if you are an importer of oil or liquefied natural gas anywhere in the world, would you like a long-term contract with an american company under american law with the resources in the united states? or would you like to strike that bargain in the middle east, africa, or venezuela?
i think it is straight as that. patch pricingergy united states below energy costs with a long-term growth future, so we are back in the energy sector. we continue to rebalance and scale when we have a weak entry. currently, many make the argument that oil is not priced for u.s. exports to lead. we are still importing oil as well. we are sucking up all the supply and storing it here. >> i don't know whether it is five, 2, 3, seven, but it's not six months. this is not a day trade. it is a strategic move. patch is about 7% in the weight of the s&p. it used to be triple that, double more normal. it has been washed out. you look at the basket of the natural gas producers as a
group, you can buy the whole group below replacement cost. that is usually a good opportunity to get in. scarlet: linkedin just reported results, beating consensus estimates. on the revenue side, beating estimates as well. is outlook for this quarter where the company fell short. $.55, $.20r share of below the consensus estimate, and the stock is therefore tumbling, falling more than 21% on the first quarter outlawed. -- outlook. alix: brutal. talking about earnings, david, is your call for oil -- the oil majors have gotten hurt in the fourth quarter -- is this fundamental? what part is fundamental, and what part is violation? >> there is a glut of energy.
the world is adjusting in price. we are seeing that adjustment process. the time we think on a strategic entry is when nobody wants it. we have been there. now, do we have a balance or did we make a turn? we will know that six months from now. there are a number of developing forecasts in the future markets. if you go out on the curve of rising, and deals are being stuck at higher prices. -- instructed higher prices. how to call a bottom? i don't know. i don't think anybody does. we are close. scarlet: i want to get your take on gold. we have this negative sovereign bond yield situation across europe. five-year bonds, negative interest rates, japan as well. what does negative rates mean? >> they have to take the price
higher. it is an interesting competition if you add in japan. , 23ow have five currencies countries, and about one fourth of the real output of the entire planet, if you use world bank members, right? where the policy interest rate is a negative interest rate. if we set here two years ago and talked about that and said that two years from now we will come back here and sit at this desk and we will have five currencies in negative interest rates and a fourth of the output of the world, you would say he is nuts and don't invite him back. where will he -- we be two years from now? the likelihood is we will have a spread of negative interest rates. they will go lower still, probably in the spring. japan is prepared to do it again, and now you say, what does that mean? prices have asset
an upward bias, including precious metals. alix: if you look at negative interest rates as some kind of the fact oh currency battle and all these countries that have negative interest rates have their currencies fall, that should be negative for gold. >> it depends. gold is customarily viewed as an inflation hedge. if the buyers of the gold happen , othersian countries countries, middle eastern countries, those who are struggling with, what do i do? sovereign debt now is it zero. then there may be a demand for gold. comes in different shapes and sizes from different places. japan now has the indefinitehave
deficit finance at zero interest, zero interest. at the same time, it is ramping up a defense posture with high technology. there is a bull market case for japanese stocks. in addition to the fact that the bank of japan is the buyer of the stocks. it is a remarkable world. alix: like japanese stocks, gold, natural gas, oil, you have to love david. low oil how are prices affecting the banks? check on linkedin, down more than 20% in after-hours trading after the company's first corner outlook for earnings per share coming in way below what analysts had anticipated, $.55 versus the consensus estimate of $.75. we will be back. ♪
alix: i am alix steel. >> pregnant women in new york who recently traveled to countries impacted by the zika virus cannot get free tests for the infection. authorities had already announced free testing for anyone exhibiting signs of the virus. so far, 11 new yorkers have tested positive or zika, all had traveled to brazil and other places where mosquito bites had linked to the infection. the number of islamic state fighters have dropped in iraq and syria, but have risen in libya. that is compared to an earlier 30,000, now000 to
19,000 to 20,000. those numbers back up claims taking atrikes are toll on islamic state fighters. a saudi military spokesman says the kingdom is ready to send ground troops to syria to fight islamic state. that is if coalition leaders agreed to a proposal. the u.s. is scheduled to convene a meeting of defense ministers of countries fighting eyes oh in brussels. saudi arabia is deeply involved in yemen, where it's fighting iranian backed shiite rebels. government got a break from collapsing metals prices. kenny's are made almost entirely of zinc, and the u.s. mint says that last year each cost a little more than 1.4 cents to make, down 14% from 2014. as recently as 2011, the penny cost almost 2.5 cents to make.
global news 24 hours a day card by 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. our banks in trouble, and have they set aside enough money to cover losses in energy loans. boone pickens is not worried. >> i've had meetings with banks recently. i think this is different this time. they don't like the price of oil going down. i think they have done a better job to prepare for it. i don't see the banks in trouble. alix: deutsche bank is worried. are now predicting an increase in loan losses as the bank may have significant energy exposure that is not investment great and well secured. you can see investors concerns in the banks bond, 6% convertible bonds falling. running is now is charles peabody.
charles covers the banking sector, and it in the 1980's as well. our banks ok? >> from a balance she point of view, they are. we don't think they are capital impaired in this cycle. from an earnings point of view, we think there will be an earnings recession. alix: is that oil related? >> we downgraded many of the it wasast june, and because we expected the corporate credit cycle to turn negative. yes, i think it will be beyond energy. it will go to metals, mining, and commercial real estate as well. scarlet: what was the default rate in the 1980's. we presume that bankruptcies will unfold in the same way and at the same rate? >> oil peaked at $30 a share in the 1980's and collapsed under $10, and that was the crisis,
but the losses cap coming for the next four years in energy portfolios. humid of losses ranged between 15% and 25%, but back then the portfolios related to energy were larger than today. alix: sonatas diversified. to your point, i've charted the oil price back to 1983. oil peaked out at $30 and fell to $10, and that is the cause of that crisis. we are at $30 now, and you are making the point that previous tops tend to be bottoms later in the cycle, meaning we may have bottomed here. >> very long-term big numbers have meaning in trading other than daytrading, and i think that $30 top back in 1983 is an important level for creating some kind of trading bottom here. the adage is, the crisis in energy prices may be over, but it's ripples are still being
felt. scarlet: is it a big bank issue? are the big banks going to face problems? >> they are still woefully under reserved for potential losses that are coming. i think the earnings recession will be very severe. 3% toave reserves about 6% for energy losses, and were talking about humid of losses of 10% to 50% for the cycle. what i tend to hear is that while bank debt is not due 2022, meaning there is a lot of wiggle room. this is not panic right now. would you think about that? >> some of the traders i talked to are buying the bank debt the cousin they believe there is not a balance sheet and him and coming and they are shorting stocks. in terms of energy companies, it doesn't seem to be like they are in trouble until banks have22, so do
some wiggle room in terms of being repaid? >> these things have a long tail. the crisis started in 1983, and we have banks failing in texas in 1987 and 1988, texas commerce was taken over in 1986. what are the repercussions for how the banks lend money outside of the energy sector and within the energy sector? >> yesterday, the federal reserve put out their senior loan officer survey, and you saw for the first time a reversal in credit tightening. that has historically been the case, that you see the capital markets and banks tighten way , and that fed tightening of credit started in the second half of last year. to piggyback, so they are tightening now, but would this
make banks more reluctant to lend to energy companies in the next 10 years, constricting ability for companies to go. >> bankers tend to have short memories. no, i think that right now the difficulty that the energy companies have is finding the collateral to post against those loans, because we don't have that forward market. that went away in the first half of 2015, so they will face the quiddity constraints in terms of bank lending. i think the bank lenders will portfoliosse energy aggressively and force banks to recognize the capital requirement behind those type of loans. which bank's worst off in exposure?ts energy >> if you take energy and commercial real estate in combination, and i think they will have a ripple effect just as they did in the 1980's -- and you remember we had a series commercial real estate recession
by 1991 -- i think texas and ,klahoma type banks will face , comerica,bankshares major money center banks will come through this with her balance sheets intact. scarlet: all the hard work has been done in terms of rolling up their capital. >> yes. alix: could we be headed for another recession? david rosenberg weighed in on this debate. of the not a fan recession view. i think that is hyperbole, but the economy right now is challenged. ♪
"what'd you miss?" falling 24%res after the company projected first quarter and full-year revenues that ms. analysts estimates because of a slowdown in its professional networking business. this is remarkable given that so many investors were so optimistic. the idea that this is one of the best internet stocks out there, behind facebook, and results are not panning out. it demonstrates how difficult it is for traders to get a handle on these names when it comes to their earnings. scarlet: this earnings season has proven that. we want to take a look at two things you might have missed first saudi arabia official selling price to asia. how much saudi arabia is selling its oil to asia for.
medium crude, light crude, heavy crude, super light crude -- so you can see that the price has increased. however, bloomberg has learned that for the light crude, this white line here, oil prices were -- by $.20 aight barrel, a cymer story when it comes to the green line, which is also light, light crude. the idea is you lower the price in competing for market share or demand is less, so you look for this kind of pricing to clues to what is happening in china and how much saudi arabia was to fight for oil competition. boeing -- lowering those prices is a huge part of that. so watch those os piece. scarlet: i'm taking a look at the number of brexit stories on bloomberg. this is the past two years. we charted it out. there is a spike in may of 2015 whenwing a u.k. election
the ukip did not fare well. then you saw and easing, but then a steady rise higher through the fourth quarter, and a big spike up at the end of last year and early this year, almost 70 stores on a daily basis. the new worry is the bank of england can't or won't raise interest rates because of market turmoil, and the braves it vote creates terminal -- turmoil. we've seen the brexit fears resonate in sterling as well. next week is going to be the meeting between the eu and the u.k. to see if they will approve the terms of the proposal to stadium. -- to stay in. scarlet: what could be the tipping point that pushes the u.s. into recession? the chart you need to look at
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. let's get to mark crumpton with first word news. >> the brazilian health workers union calling off a strike because it could affect the country's battle against the zika virus. the union's members include workers who go door to door in rio de janeiro trying to eradicate zika. had threatened to strike if the national health ministry failed to meet demands for better working technicians. people lyon, dozens of linked to the most recent cases of ebola are still missing. that is according to the world health organization, which says 18 of the contacts are at high risk of having the deadly virus. who says another 70 people under quarantine are being
released. the west african outbreak has killed more than a 11,000 people since late 2013, nearly 4000 of them in sierra leone. members of congress were eager to hear today from martin shkreli about the severe price hike for a drug sold by a company he acquired, but the former pharmaceutical executive refused to answer any questions before a house panel, saying he was exercising his fifth amendment right against overcoming nation. he is facing criminal charges of securities fraud. the national football league making moves to ensure that more women land executive positions. all teams must now interview women for executive jobs. nfl commissioner roger goodell made the announcement today at the nfl's women's summit, a first. called roll too- interview candidates. a day news 24 hours
powered by our 2400 journalist and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. back to you. >> let's get a recap on how u.s. markets close. back-and-forthof and forth today, indexes finishing fire. thes&p 500 crossing breaking line 11 times, but a muted advance, only the second time this year that the s&p 500 has moved less than 1% for two straight days. ,he big story was in currencies where you were talking about the dollar being weaker, helping to boost commodity prices. alix: the dollar over all below its 200 day moving average. in fact, at its lowest level since october, some not yet at those august lows we did see, but coming under significant pressure over the last three days, four days, and that boosting commodity prices. in part, that's why you're seeing names like freeport rally, and copper. not getting a lift our
shares of linkedin, tumbling in after-hours after the networking projected first quarter and full-year revenue that will miss analysts estimates, the stock down by 25% at the moment. this is because of a slowdown in the core business, so something of concern, especially because linkedin have been doing so well monetizing on its user base and china as well. like if you track the chart with the unemployment rate, was there any kind of correlation? in markets, geopolitics and business, little things can make a big difference, and that's why were unveiling a new segment where we explore the tipping point. today's focus, what it would take to push the u.s. into recession. alix: speaking to us last week, citigroup's chief u.s. equity analyst says it does not support a recession. >> i'm not saying we will ever have a recession, but current
data does not support the idea of a recession. there is no inverted yield curve. there are data points you look at that really don't support it. there is fear in the markets, and as a result any piece of information feeds a narrative. we also spoke with george perks on his take. that is not worry some yet, but something am watching closely, is initial jobless claims. , spiked isspiked probably too strong of a description, but risen off of what have been effectively 30 year lows. we are not at the level that signals a recession, but were concerned about the fact that when jobless claims rise off the lows from revis expansions, you tend to be close to a recession. inx: i wanted bring bloomberg intelligence chief economist for what he things would indicate a tipping point
into recession. you have three things to look at for warning signs. the first is a straight up nonfarm payroll report. >> if we pull up the graphic, you can see going back to the 1970's, when you see employment gains in such robust territory, exogenousake another shock, a surge in oil prices or geopolitical event, not the economy basically faltering under its own weight. i share the sentiment from the first video clip you had which said that a recession will come eventually, but we are not at that point yet. i've seen some analysts saying 40% or 50% recession odds, i think were closer to 15% or 20% recession odds, so we should absolutely be concerned when the economy is slowing down. the economy is like an aircraft. if the ford airspeed reduces, it can eventually drop out of the sky.
it is closer to 1.6% in year on your terms and gdp, and right now we are at 1.8%, so are getting close to the point where we should be concerned, but were survey not seeing the types of downdraft emerging that would point to a recession looming. scarlet: some people say we are due for a recession, because they come on average once every seven years. >> worst way to measure a business cycle, with the calendar. scarlet: when you look at a chart of salary disbursements, what are you pinpointing, what level? >> what we are pinpointing in this chart -- and that is not a what ist the end -- see incomeant is you growth rolling over ahead of recessions, and were not seeing that now, because we have low-inflation and income growth that's not great, but decent,
because the labor market is decent, so as we evaluate the pressure points for the economy, what could tip us into recession? look at the key drivers of growth, housing to a small degree, but more important consumer spending. the risk to outlook is not a pullback in capital expenditure or the government spending front, it is things that would jeopardize consumer spending going forward. as long as we have decent job gains, we don't need to see the near 300,000 pays, but if were seeing 150,000 to 200,000, then that tells us that consumer spending will hold up at some base level, which will continue to propel the economy forward, so many of the curses of the cycle, sluggish growth, lack of wage pressures, low interest rates, are now turning into blessings that are extending this economic cycle, and i expect recession will not untile -- materialize
2019 or 2020. we have a long way to go. calendar a very bad way to measure a business cycle. alix: that brings us to the debate of manufacturing versus services versus gdp, and we do get recession tendency, all of them plummet at the same time, where as that service line is holing up. >> right come all plummeting, but a lot further than where we are currently. here we have gdp versus the manufacturing i send or the service sector i is him -- manufacturing ism or the service sector ism, so we should be concerned that they are slowing down, but far from recessionary territory. would beacturing ism closer to 42 or 43 to signal a recession, where as it came out at 48. if we look at the service sector 53.5, is consistent with a
gdp growth of 1.5% here it that is pointing to a significant improvement to where we were, but still an economy that is just muddling along at a taste that will not generate inflation pressures, so the fed can take açai every leaf that they will not have to be to active this year and such ago-slow economy. a go-slow economy. scarlet: what does the job growth look like in a country that is muddling along? >> we don't want road activity to be low forever. a lot of handwringing with weak productivity gains, but in the productivityw growth means we can have job gains in a go-slow economy. it happens at a critical time where we need to continue to drawdown slack in the labor market. alix: if we have a recession sooner than you predict, because
were only at 1.6 growth, does that mean the recession will be more shallow and less long? >> not necessarily. i suspect there are not significant imbalances in the economy, so that me some confidence it should be mild, but this is classical economics versus some modern iteration of kinsey and economics. kinsey and economics. you don't have the medicine to address the problems. if you get sick and don't take the medicine, you can end up sicker. we don't know how effective additional qe or negative interest rates would really be, so i think a recession would be mild, but you have to factor in that there is less of a policy option to offset it. thanks very much. great job. will oil prices stay
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. shares of linkedin tumbling more than 25% in after-hours trade. the company says his outlook will be weaker for next year than estimated. ales last quarter were hurt slowdown in its core professional networking business. the company says it is in the process of diversifying services to counter slowing growth. alix: news corp. missed analysts estimates as a decline in print advertisement trends profits.
share, trailing the projections compiled by bloomberg. revenue fell 4% from the previous year. earnings from book publishing and cable net -- networks dropped. president obama asking for a $10 fee on every barrel of oil in the upcoming budget. it would be paid by oil companies and passed along to consumers. officials say it would be phased in over five years to pay for self driving vehicles and transportation improvements. the president since his budget to congress next week. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: i am alix steel. "what'd you miss?" morgan stanley forecasting crude will drop to $20 a barrel. team boone pickens forecast a goes the other way. forecasts itckens goes the other way.
barrel byarrel, $60 a the end of the year, because you shut down rigs all over the world. you down now and the united states for oil drilling rigs from 1609 two under 500 rigs. so you're going to see the decline in production fast, but watch out for recession. hits,t: if a recession what does that mean for you and your position? >> right now, i don't have a position. i'm just sitting here. i'm waiting for the opportunity to come back into this oil market. >> hold on. back that up for us. you're sitting predominantly in cash right now? >> yes. >> i wonder where you would go. if you come back in, what sign do you need to see to get back in, and how would you go about
it? that we havelieve seen the low. i don't think we will go back there unless it is recession, ok? don't get in a rush here. you can get plenty of opportunity. the market will be volatile. it will not go straight up. we know that. there will be good entry points. until wet reenter start to draw on inventories. that is a key point. few days we've heard of possible talks between russia and opec suppliers, do you think they will come together and cut production in a substantial way? >> look what it's costing the saudi's, $500 million a day. their cash reserves were over $800 billion. they are now down close to $600
billion, and so i think everyone is getting tired of it. at some point, maybe june, you will see if there has not been a recovery that they will cut. that's when the next meeting is. >> if there hasn't been a recovery, between now and june, will we see among american producers at least forced mergers and acquisition. >> you are already there. they are acquisition targets now. some of them are hanging on. the big companies, exxon for instance, they have great opportunity to acquire if they want to acquire. do they do that? >> who should their acquisition target be? if you are exxon, who would you look to buy? be pioneer one would
, maybe even apache. , don't like apaches portfolio but still a strong company with a lot of reserves. them out a number of there that would be attractive if you want to go for them. >> are banks can see a big downturn because of oil prices? >> i have had meetings with banks recently. i think this is different this time. they don't like the price of oil going down. i think they've done a better job to prepare for it. i don't see the banks in trouble. we will see. if this continues, is going to put more pressure on the banks. >> that was boone pickens, founder of -- >> job day in the u.s., three charts you need to focus on in the january report. ♪
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. time now for the three charts you can't miss. 100 90,000 jobs added in january, unemployment rate holding at 5%. at bloombergtor businessweek, thank you for joining us. bloomberg markets put together three charts for us. concerns we have been talking about for a while, a divide between the goods and services economy and the manufacturing economy, and specificly the growth versus goods producing jobs. the service providing jobs have stayed steady and on a muted
upward trajectory. >> that is all about exports. the rest of the world is weak. our exports are under pressure. are at thethat, we rollover you are seeing. the service sector is more domestic, and because the domestic economy is stronger than the international economy, service jobs are holding up. any of that letting up anytime soon, because the rest of the world remains weaker than the u.s., so that trend my continue. >> which jobs pay better? >> we were talking about this yesterday. it is hard to come up with an aggregate number. you have to look at what parts of the sectors, certainly a lot of high paid manufacturing jobs, but it goes from busing tables to ceo. you can't generalize. alix: it is hard to apple-apple that. average weekly earnings growth versus average hourly earnings
growth. hourly wages have been accelerating, but weekly earnings have kind of been flat, staying around 2%. it has decelerated a little bit worried do we see this cap close? do they meet up? >> people are expecting it to stay flat in january versus december, so are not going to get any big catch up on weekly earnings from lengthening the work week good whatever we get will be passed through. chart that is a good way to break down the labor market is looking at the percent of employed workers not in the labor force the previous month. last year, almost 3% of workers were not in the labor force the previous month. there is still some slack in the labor market. you wonder how quickly the u.s. economy can -- >> that is an indicator that
will not be rising forever. at some point, all the people who can come in are going to be in, and were seeing that with continued low labor force dissipation rate, stubbornly stuck at a really low level. what is happening is the labor market is getting tighter. that has not resulted yet in wage inflation, but it is a pretty good bet that it will. we had numbers today on unit labor costs. because of the weak growth in output in the fourth quarter and ,he fairly strong rise in pay unit labor costs shot up at an annual rate of over 4%. granted those numbers are volatile, but it takes you that wages are starting to put corporate earnings under pressure, and when that happens you tend to get companies thinking twice about hiring people and maybe even thinking about laying off. high in terms of
the number of layoffs from the year earlier. alix: what do companies do with that? deutsche bank has been talking about the fact that weak productivity has been a lack of demand. if demand does not pick up, companies will have to fire the people they hired in expectation of increasing demand. >> that is true. i agree with that. certainly the weak demand hurts productivity, because the same number of workers and there's not enough work to do, and you eventually lay them off. it is also a supply factor. even when we were seeing strong growth, relatively strong growth, in the economy picking up from the great recession, we .id not see high productivity we saw low productivity, historically low, 0.3 percent a year, that's just inadequate.
it's no wonder that wages continue to be under pressure because people are not producing enough to justify an increase in pay. alix: thank you so much. economics editor of bloomberg businessweek. the things you need to know for tomorrow. scarlet: what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day, next. in addition, the jobs report. ♪
mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann. this ain't no way to protect your neck. mark: is it wu tang clang? is that the name of the group? >> i respectfully decline to answer your question. mark: happy democratic debate day and hello from bloomberg politics. the radisson hotel in hampshire.