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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  February 5, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST

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>> u.s. stocks tumbling in the close. nasdaq sinking to its lowest level in five months. we begin with our market minute. we had a fairly decent jobs report that became a job day tumble and selloff. you mention the nasdaq. that late selloff push, deeper into the correction. not there yet but everyone is eyeing that level. 19% above the moving average. it was pretty much when you look at the momentum names of those were the ones that lead the decline today. alix: it was amazon, netflix, facebook. they erased 30 points from the nasdaq due to that selloff. it was hard to find a catalyst. when you get a good jobs report they tend to end lower but this was not ending lower. this was a selloff. down.d linkedin
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double digits over 40% but that wasn't necessarily a google or amazon story. it unraveled even more. scarlet: it was a breakdown heading into what would some would say is a long week because you have chinese markets closed all week. ande are question marks worthy questions to ask. if you look at currencies the dollar was down for the week. y, thatlook at the dx was the most since last october. midway through this week it had recouped its losses triggered by the negative interest rates. the pound falling for a second day. stray --h to undo the string it had. alix: in bonds it was an interesting story. you didn't see the flood to safety you would have expected.
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you did have some kind of a bid in the to your market. you didn't really have a bit in the two-year market. that was more of a fed story. a good jobs number there. the 10 year yield overall unchanged. it hit a 10 month low -- the lowest level in a year wednesday . a rallied a little bit from there but you didn't see total panic. scarlet: i have to mention european banks. it is an ugly week for this sector. is posting a 63% profit drop. were better than expected. the focus is on revamping its investment bank. that is the unifying same. they have to rethink their strategy, how they will go forward with growth in an environment where they can
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reduce expenses. stocks are trading near their lowest since 2012. scarlet: hard to get jazzed. taking a look at commodities, oil is an interesting story, continuing its slide even though out.t bullish data use already counts for the horizontal plays, 29% and you that didn't really help out. it felt like a bearish reaction. overall that wasn't helping. that was a huge loser on the nasdaq, the second worst, linn energy. this is trading at $.50. it is under one dollar per share. that is a 59% drop for the day. linn energy has borrowed 100% of
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its credit line recently in the last two weeks and may have said they are exploring strategic alternatives. you might read that as potential bankruptcies. that low energy price trickling in two companies. this is one of the potential casualties. alix: it is something we will keep an -- scarlet: it is up and we will keep an eye on. let's take a deep type into the bloomberg. at the'm looking services job here. growth the services job we saw in the unemployment report. it wasn't terrible. that was a big decline from what we saw the month before. overall you were looking at the slowest pace of growth since march of 2015. i wouldn't bring up this chart. it is what barclays pointed to when i push back their rate forecast after that good jobs
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report. the services sector was holding everything up. why would we add less jobs? scarlet: this is something that will keep people puzzling. i'm looking at volatility across asset classes. they use options to measure future price links. stocks, currencies and bonds. you see a ratcheting up a volatility through two thirds of january. while things have called down -- calm down we did get a hike. asn the line is above zero it barely is right there it indicates there is more stress than normal. when it is below zero there is more stress than normal. what you can see is we are below that stress. that is a good sign. let's max it out. that is where it gets interesting. both of these instances are
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still eclipsed by the swing in 2011 where you have a completely different thing. a technical analysis, he joins us now to help make sense of what we saw today in the markets. scarlet: what happened, why the acceleration? guest: i think number one there of thele risk over weekend. especially with china being closed. you get china data on sunday evening, currency fx reserves. that weight into the late afternoon sentiment. this is bear market behavior. 55% of the s&p is down 20%. the group that is not down 20 had been your leaders over the last year or 18 months. this looks like phase two of this.
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we have seen it with amazon and under armour and nike and starbucks. you tend to see that later in the decline. i am skeptical saying we're at the end of this. at thwe will retest 1812 from a few weeks ago. alix: what is the next phase out? guest: i think we still need to see the climactic event. our impression has been that the credit market in particular wants bankruptcy. i don't know if it is glencore, but the credit market is out for blood. we're seeing spread move water. not just in energy. we've seen deutsche bank lower. this is permeated beyond energy and basic materials. banks,ou look at global it is across the globe here.
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that is the short-term trend line. 200 day moving average has rolled over already. what is different between what we are seeing now and 2012? alix: what we need -- guest: what we need to remember with the banks, many are at 15 or 20 year low before where they were in 2008 or 2012. the market is concerned. we are seeing that reflect in the yield curve. multiyear loans today, i think we are seeing credit conditions among the banks send some message of weakness of stress. i want to take that seriously. i'm reluctant to say we are through this just yet until the banks are acting better and we are not there yet. alix: this chart, this orange line, high-quality stocks turning to outperform versus the baa corporate spreads.
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that has been rising. how far are we in this rotation? guest: number one any time credit is under pressure you see rotation towards quality. we have seen that with staples and utilities. , you didn't get a leadership change. it was still staples and telcos. factor ise credit informing that. so long as credit is under pressure this likely persists. scarlet: going into sovereign bonds with negative yields, we continue to see more and more countries that support yields in negative territory. alix: we can make the -- guest: we can make the , maybe it is u.s. 10 year yields that are high. the flattening of the curve is certainly a reflection the bond market is going to press the fed. alix: we didn't see a lot of
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action in the treasury market. we had selling in the two-year due to the i increase. guest: that is one of the reasons we are reluctant to say this is over yet prayed we have not seen the stress or fear. the fix is moderate. alix: what will make you say ok that is severe panic? 1%? outt: i don't think it is of the question in the next couple of weeks as we work through this. the bank stocks are a reflection of that and this leadership profile is reflective of that. scarlet: what is leading this latest leg of selling? is it the banks? have we changed over? guest: what has been curious is the garbage going down for the last 18 months seems to have moderated a bit. you see the sellers move away from getting energy or
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materials. now they are hitting leaders. it says you are maturing in the stick line. it has been biotech stocks, health-care stocks. it has been the nasdaq names. that can be a signal you are further along in the decline. i have a hard time calling it over. ultimately those levels are in play from january 20. alix: ok. not the glimmer of hope we expected. scarlet: coming up, data surprises in january jobs report. that is next. ♪
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i'm alix steel.
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let's get to mark crumpton. mark: president obama and chinese president xi jinping agree that test by north korea would be another provocative and destabilizing action and in violation of multiple resolutions. the north announced plans for a rocket launch that could take place as early as next week. japan and south korea are mobilizing ships and missiles in anticipation. moscow plans to present new ideas on how to restart syrian tea stocks. one suggestion may include a cease-fire. tensions were high outside of the un security council as britain and france blame their offense on aleppo airstrikes for the suspension of talks. its firsts reporting death by the zika virus. brazil is the hardest hit of the more than two dozen countries
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affected. researchers found the virus active in saliva and urine and they are great to send test samples to the united states. the fire department says one person was killed and three others seriously injured far wing -- following the crane collapse in manhattan this morning. the accident happened in the tribeca neighborhood. the collapse metal landed across an intersection and stretch for much of a block. news 20 for hours a day, powered by our journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. alix: the headline jobs number disappointed by there was a lot to like. wage growth, more people coming into the workforce, unemployment falling below 5%. scarlet: why not march?
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-- >> guest: why not march? the jobs number was positive. with the laborg market. a lot of the factors we would , the rest of the data we received has been marginally worse than expected if not much worse than expected, and fed officials are uncomfortable with the amount of stress they have seen in the financial system since they hiked in december. scarlet: we talk about jobs numbers being a lagging indicator. unemployment in particular. perhaps that is reflecting conditions from a couple of months ago as opposed to what is happening now. why is that? why is jobs data lagging? companies were clocked at two fire -- are reluctant to fire? guest: i would call it a coincidence. probably more of
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a lagging. i think it is because it reflects whatever economic conditions have happened already that then influenced what businesses choose to do. businesses are going to plan in terms of their hiring needs and potential layoffs based off of what they are saying for demand today. fromway it is a response what corporations are saying and what they intend to do. it is still a relevant indicator in terms of the economy. with a jobscame up report saying that perhaps the jobs gains are too good. i'm surmising that for him. guest: his hypothesis is that it will lower the rate to quickly. that will force the fed's hand later. we need to stabilize. what do you think? guest: i agree with his premise. the pace of job growth we are seeing, they will bring down the
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unemployment rate quickly. the breakeven rate is somewhere between 90 and 100,000 by our estimates based of of what we saw. if you continue to have job growth in the three month moving average, unemployment is going to fall fast. moderationget some in job growth and that allows unemployment to reach for and have percent. things continue at this you will be at 4% at the end of the year. scarlet: does that mean maximum employment? guest: i would say it is arguably already being reach. reached. it is my perfect measurement. there is under utilization other types of potential capacity that you can put on to that number but by most measurements we are close to full employment. alix: you were talking about labor markets surprises.
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overall we have been surprising in the jobs number. versus every other economic indicator that has been indicating the downside. you can see the gap there. what you make of that? is the data worse than we think? or are economists getting it wrong? guest: it is a little bit of both. for the labor market that upward surprise, the move that is a function that the data has been strong. it is not really a forecast per se. for housing and the consumer indices those have been persistently in negative territory for data surprise measures. you find a lot of the reason they have been week is because expectations have been so high. forecasters around the consumer and housing have had an optimistic outlook read while data has come in ok it hasn't
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been strong enough. scarlet: is optimism driven by the plunge and oil prices? everyone things we're going to get that pay off. guest: i think that is right. before,series we showed in terms of where the data surprises are negative, what happened at the beginning of last year is people to up the forecast for a consumer spending on the view that gasoline prices are lower. this be a good time for consumers. earlier in the program if you want to come inside the bloomberg, i look at services strain wasw the inherently last month versus manufacturing jobs. 29,000 increase. how does that make sense? thealk about how there is huge gap, will they converge? is this what we are seeing? alix: that was sent -- guest: that was surprising to
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me. we expect little changes given what we saw from the regional .urveys i'm not sure how to explain that. it could be noise. maybe it is sending a signal we're seeing some bottoming out. it would be welcome news. on the services side the weakness and services was largely a payback from december where you didn't have the typical seasonal layoffs. i wouldn't read too much into that. scarlet: the picture is we have manufacturing, where in the business cycle are we? how do you determine where we are? guest: that has been a difficult question we have in trying to answer for a wild. turn,he data started to and the markets of done what they have done we have heard more and more cries the economy is entering recession. we disagree with that. we don't think it is entering recession. that said as we continue to
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, wegrade our forecasts start to wonder if we are in the later stages of the business cycle. we would put higher probability that the economy will fall into recession in the medium-term. your you guys have cut forecasts. what is the tipping point that freaks you out? guest: when it starts to be a growth recession you get worried step is anext contraction. that is a slow-moving process but a growth recession is the economy is growing but below potential. you're no longer closing the gap. you are no longer creating that momentum in the economy. we are at 2% or so above the 1.7% potential growth rate. it is narrowing but we are making progress. the thing that would get us worried is if you start to see signs that a specific sector in
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the economy was weakening in a dramatic way. scarlet: manufacturing. guest: manufacturing can justify. there was a shock that hit manufacturing. what would make me worried if you saw broad-based reduction in capital expenditure. alix: thank you. good to see he. -- good to see you. scarlet: and the aftermath of a tough week in europe for banks. ♪
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scarlet: what did you miss? a rough week for european banks. if you look inside the bloomberg terminal -- also watching oil. scarlet: i just got ahead of
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myself. now.inside the bloomberg we have the white line showing banks price-to-book value. they have fallen below one. a precipitous decline ever since august. the magenta line shows the credit default swap. that is at the highest since july of 2013. the banking sector, focusing on most profitable businesses without jeopardizing dividends. this is why they have increased scrutiny. it is not even possible. i'm taking a look at oil. this is oil's biggest problem. if you max out inventory base you will have to start storing oil on the sea. oil prices have to fall more. you look at the inventory that is around record highs for oil in the u.s. gulf coast. look at that rise we have seen
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in the last few weeks. futures contract, it has actually climb to record $.90 a barrel this week. more than doubled in the past two weeks. now you have two signs in the market that oil storage is becoming very scarce. the issue is what happens? there importing a lot into gulf coast as well. it is really weighing on that. scarlet: i feel we have heard this story before. you are right. this is when we are in a dicey situation. globally we are running out. dig into the week of while for energy companies and the chances more downgrades are to come. ♪
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scarlet: let's get to mark crumpton with bloomberg news. mark: an earthquake has struck southern taiwan. u.s. geological survey says the 6.4 magnitude quake struck over an hour ago. there is no word of damage or injuries. a victory lap for president obama following today's release of the january employment report. the jobless rate at 4.9%, the lowest level since 2008. he reflected on how far the economy has come since the reflection -- the recession. what we have recovered from the worst economic crisis since the 1930's, the worst in my lifetime
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and most people in this room and we have done it faster, stronger , better, more durably then any other advanced economy. mark: it showed employers added 151,000 jobs. a u.n. human rights panel has come out in favor of julian assange. he has been arbitrarily detained by the u.k. and sweden and should be freed. he has been holed up in ecuador's in the sea in london since 2012. if british police arrest them he would be extradited to sweden. he could end up in the united states being question about linked classified documents. a spokesman says the ruling changes nothing. marco rubio has moved into second place and is closing the gap with donald trump. according to a poll from cnn, he is at 29%.
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senator rubio at 18%. ted cruz at 13%. about one third of likely republican voters in the primary have not decided which candidate to support. global news 24 hours a day hour-by-hour journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. scarlet: let's get a recap on how u.s. markets closed a selloff inequities pushing the nasdaq deeper into its correction towards a bear market. volume was fairly have the. 15% above the moving average. the jobs report was far from terrible but did trigger big losses perhaps because it means the fed can proceed with interest rate increases as planned. big tech names led the decline. they are with the nasdaq,
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tumbling and leaving the selloff. tough dayas a very for oil companies. earnings and downgrades, here is the damage that has been done by $30 oil prices. continental and southwestern energy are u.s. independent companies downgraded to junk by the s&p right around here. here is the thing. the debt was trading around junk. bond prices have been falling quite a big. -- quite a bit. if modi's downgrades than they would have been fallen angels. it wasn't just these shale guys that got hurt. at lowestp and exxon level since 2002. facing its first downgrade 86 years. chevron had a rating cut for the first time in three decades. they have to be enough for big
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oil to cover dividends using free cash flow and companies like conoco phillips, they did not make it and what was forced to cut dividends. how bad have things gotten for oil companies? here is the amount of energy debt that is now trading at distressed prices. in november, it crept up to 88 billion. now we are at $140 billion. aat is tremendous about this, $20 billion of this actually comes investment grade companies which is unusual. good brady company shouldn't junk.ebt that trade like this raises the question, is the debt market right? our energy companies in that much trouble? to help joining us answer these questions is our own spencer cutter.
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our team of analysts that cover various industries. she posed a question, is the debt market right? what do you think? spencer: it anticipate the rating agencies. they have an active in the last year saying they are going to be downgrading more and more. the debt market, yeah. are some babies being thrown out with the bathwater, most likely. moody's came out in january and said they are putting 69 energy companies in north america on review for downgrading. you have about 20 companies that are in that bracket near continental and southwestern with low investment grade credit ratings and if all these companies lose their investment grade status that is $100 billion in debt that could move from the investment grade market into the high-yield market. to put that in perspective there is $200 billion in debt in the high-yield energy market. you're talking about a 50%
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increase in the amount of debt in that sector. part of what is happening here is not necessarily a view that every energy company in north america with a triple b or lower credit rating is likely to go bankrupt but you have so much turmoil and so much going on that can the market absorb this? certain people can't hold those bonds? alix: if the debt is trading like junk, a downgrade to junk is it going to do that much for access to equity but the issue is investors may not be able to hold debt if junk status. can you talk us through the ripple effect through market? bondat you tend to see, rebounded a little bit. they didn't selloff with the downgrade. the market new it was coming. tend to see with the bigger names is as they move from investment grade into high-yield you have lots of
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insurance funds, pension funds, mutual funds that say they have --hold only investment debt investment-grade debt. they are forced to sell. a high-yield has to absorb it. usually with a big downgrade you will see the price for the bonds dip for the first month or two. the market knows it is coming. then there is a rebound on the backend. if you bought the bonds when they are downgraded research shows if you hold it you might actually do fairly well. alix: interesting. sell the rumor by the news. scarlet: to what extent are people scarred? late when it came to downgrading securities linked to bad mortgages, perhaps they are putting less faith into rating agencies because they didn't catch it last time. spencer: the markets tend to
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know the rating agencies are not necessarily leading indicator. the agencies have to be careful. i have sympathy for them. they're in a tight spot. they can't just downgrade a company because they feel like it and think the prospects are very good. scarlet: why? spencer: a lot of people are holding the debt and counting on the rating. scarlet: that should be independent. spencer: let's put it this way rating agencies have to be like the federal reserve. they have to toe the line and have their assumptions and treat everybody fairly. recently,een going on while there is debt that could be moved to high-yield, they have been lowering oil and gas price assumptions. in january moody's has moved to $33 a barrel. now they have to rerun models at
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$33 a barrel for everybody. at that point that is where they say we are putting 69 companies on review for downgrade. could they have lowered price to $33 a barrel in august? alix: people would have thought they were crazy. my question is, is there one company that is investment-grade that if it was downgraded would low out the entire global energy market and have repercussions that extend beyond energy? i don't think right now looking at companies that are triple b and at risk of going to high-yield there is a single company that would blow out the market. i would say there is one company that if it hits downgraded means everyone else in that bracket got downgraded, apache. they are the highest rated triple b. usually agencies in the past only cutting ratings one or two notches at a time.
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but what life has been going on energy they have been cutting 3-4 inches at a time. if apache goes down that everybody between apache ant continental -- and continental has gone down as well. that is assigned you have change the profile of the energy sector from a credit perspective. usrlet: they were telling how the credit market is out for blood. it seems to want a bankruptcy. in terms of sentiment, to give a sense that things have cleared. alix: that would be the bottom. what is the repercussion of this $200 billion moving at a high-yield? are we went to look at mna? what is your prediction? see fore beginning to bankruptcies. saying where is it, where is it. you are starting to see that they got. esau swift file at the end of
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last year. sandridge in the last two weeks. saying we are borrowing all our credit facility and exploring strategic options. we're going to court all the cash we can. it is assigned restructuring is not far away. they have plenty of liquidity they could have lived with for another year but they are doing it now. you may start to see other companies do the same thing. you have the borrowing base coming up in the spring. it could be that they saw the writing on the wall. they were getting squeezed at the end of last year with arlen base. might as well take it while i can. now i have the leverage. let's see what happens. alix: i'm excited about that to see when companies feel the stress. thank you read appreciate you joining us. scarlet: how likely is a global recession in 2016? ♪
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>> i'm scarlet fu. time to look at the business stories. gopro stocks climbing. of the deal were not disclosed. gopro stocks plunge because of slowing sales and bleak forecasts. jessica alba is working on an ipo. is talking to goldman sachs and morgan stanley. natural babyd products and beauty products. twitter says it has
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suspended 125,000 accounts threatening terrorism since the middle of last year. they said they have increased reviewing terrorist activities. they have 321 million active users. citigroup chief economist joins bloomberg to discuss the likelihood of a global recession and the fed's game plan. spencer: even to the extent that -- guest: even though income is growing, it is going to those at the top of the distribution. middle america is not better off. people resent that. >> can i jump in here? >> is there a concern, we were looking at nonmanufacturing data. the employment part to those particular data points. they are not looking pretty. are we about to turn into that
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not such a strong labor market? >> employment and labor market data is lacking indicators. they are the only ones of recent indicators that have looked good for the u.s.. a a way that is somewhat concern of the other indicators are more forward-looking. i think there is a risk for the u.s. economy is softening. i don't the guy wanted here recession quite yet but there is a risk that a slowdown that seems to be underway is not just driven by external demand and by the strength of the dollar. but that it is domestically driven through excessive corporate leverage. scarlet: i want to go back -- >> can you reaffirm your
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likelihood of a global recession ? are you want to write about that? guest: a global growth , we are close to that. 2015, ifst quarter of you correct the chinese data for ,he obvious factors in there you get 2% global growth. that is well below capacity. that is as close to a recession as you can get. >> we see some dollar weakness. how much is that going to be a bit of a relief coming to the fed? how much do they want the market to tug down on the u.s. dollar? or will they start to change that talk? guest: i'm sure they will change that talk.
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they will be regretful of having talked so tough in december. hikes are completely off the table. i wouldn't say you see a cyclical high for this cycle. the weakness that is discernible , that is what we expected late last year. the fed is worrying about domestic developments and external drags on growth. i think they will be sitting on their hands for the for siebel future. scarlet: super bowl sunday is today's away. the game is not the only thing there are betting on a bunch of bats. including the color of beyoncé's halftime shoes. alix: i would bet on that.
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scarlet: why isn't anyone betting on chris martin? alix: not as fun as beyoncé shoes. scarlet: peyton manning announcing his retirement after the game. 6-1 no. alix: and the color of liquid poured on the winning coach. scarlet: paper gatorade over someone. maybe it is not always gatorade. maybe it is a generic brand. orange, 5-4. blue, 3-1. alix: clear is boring. colored it has to be a one. alix: what are you betting on? scarlet: i have to go with peyton manning. alix: we will be right back. ♪
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-- for: time now from what did you miss? matt has been combing through the numbers. he found three bright spots for us. the jobs report was positive more than negative. >> i would say so. we got the benchmark revisions. those were good. that was good to see. alix: average weekly overtime hours. walk us through that. >> this is something some people might have missed. this tracks how many overtime hours u.s. manufacturing workers are working on average. this goes up when there is manufacturing activity and down when there is not. what this shows, you can see the orange line is this seasonably adjusted data. that picked up in january. the manufacturing at least
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view from the jobs report is that is starting to stabilize a little bit. it is still down but it looks like we may be getting relief there. we had strong manufacturing job gains as well. ofrlet: an unexpected gain 29,000 versus a shrinkage of 2000. >> obviously the jobs numbers can be volatile from month-to-month. it is good to look at the hours to get a sense of what is going on there. alix: you are looking at the aggregate weekly payroll. people working average hours versus hourly earnings. u.s. labor market paycheck. if you look at the white line, before we got the benchmark revisions this was trending down . you can see what the benchmark revisions a completely different picture trending up.
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you can see this usually tracks consumer spending well which has been going down recently. this suggests we get an uptick in consumer spending growth. at least because we are earning more money. hopefully we spend it. alix: we have seen this saving rate take up. next definitely. alix: we talk about recession. we are nowhere near the last two recessions when it comes -- if you want to track the charge. we are holding up well. >> we talk of the consumer as the bright spot. it doesn't seem like if we are going into a recession is going to be led by the consumer like it was in 2007, 2008. >> does this cause people to rethink things completely? of theink it is a matter shading of the data. earlyhigher
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averages, lower a few months ago. higher hours. on that we are reversing some of the trends we saw a few months ago that were concerning where we had -- we didn't have the wage growth. ours were going down. that sort of thing is gone. the: the last chart is ratio of unemployed people dropping out of the label force to those finding work. that dropped sharply in the 12 month moving average. >> yes. we have now seen more unemployed people are finding jobs the next month and dropping out of the labor force. recoveryg time in this , you can see on this chart -- alix: up or down? >> more going up means more people dropping out. alix: moving averages what you want to pay attention to. >> yes. we are finally starting to get to the point where more
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unemployed people are finding jobs instead of dropping out. it is like reversing that story of unemployment rate is a scam because people are dropping out of the labor force. that seems to be turning around. that shows the labor markets are tightening. people are able to find jobs. alix: thanks. what a great way to leave it. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for next week.
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this.do not miss sunday night we get china's fx reserves. how much did they fall last month? markets are pessimistic. scarlet: no one in china will be able to reactivate have markets closed for one week.
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twitter also announces earnings after wednesday. alix: thank you for watching. scarlet: se
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john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann. mark: with all due respect to john kasich, no use fighting with the media. good evening from snowden new hampshire. a granite classic day. oads have caused donald trump's and other presidential candidates have to cancel or delay campaign events. studio in manchester. we will go over a lot with you tonight. sanders and clinton are speaking to over 5000 party activists in a dinner tonight across the street from here.

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