tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg February 11, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
good afternoon. i am betty liu. you are watching at this hour stocks getting slammed. it lowest level -- news that opec may move toward a cut in production. -- appears inell her second testimony on capitol hill are traders are not buying it. she left a slight door open for rate cuts. yellen: the single most reliable and predictable tool for affecting the stance of monetary policy is variations in short-term interest rates.
betty: are there serious profitability concerns or is this just anxiety pushing it forward? breaking news, about an hour away on the -- the close of trade, a big day, big declines. we are off of the lows of the session. we are watching oil prices very carefully after the news out from opec. julie hyman from the market desk has the latest. we are seeing stocks come off the lows and it has to do with oil prices. the nasdaq in particular only down a half percent now. earlier comment was down more than 300 points, and take a look at here. i have looked at the s&p versus oil prices today. oils are in yellow and s&p is an white purity see a lot of as theyty in oil prices
close at the lowest in 12 years before seeing a big lake upward here that coincide with a big leg upward in stocks. the wall street journal reported the energy minister of the united -- said opec is open which caused some kind of talk on production cuts. also that non-opec nations that will see production there go down by a hundred thousand barrels per day. day.s still lower on the to be clear. it is just the upward like we saw. here is the five-year in oil. i mentioned a 12 year low. in last five years, we have seen an enormous decline in the oil prices. it has been interesting to say the least, the correspondence between oil and stocks. let's get to the imap on bloomberg here, the various sectors on a move. shares are down 1% in the middle of the pack here. it is relatively broad-based.
all the broad interest groups are lower. financials have been leaving declines on concerns over european banks after we saw a tumble in particular ishares us -- of credit squeeze. boeing under investigation by the securities exchange commission putting pressure on it and the sector as a whole. this all means the s&p 500 for the month of february has seen a sharp selloff here and we have seen declines approaching 10% for the year to date. this presumption of selling we have seen it everywhere he has an interesting. here are the groups. the s&p is down about 5.5% or february are financials, the worst form a group on the year and four february the are. down 9% alone this month followed by can or discretionary technology and energy. all these groups are cyclicals, viewed as economically sensitive in this environment where
investors seem very concerned about the global economy. betty: thank you. let's get a check of the headlines on first word news is afternoon. mark crumpton has more on our news desk. k: nato ordered three warships to sale mili to end the smuggling of asylum seekers the waters from turkey to greece. some very prompt, click , decisive, political decision-making here today in the last 24 hours as the nations a recommendation and an opportunity. some of us worked most of the night on it to flesh out details and possibilities. than a million people arrived in europe last year and most of them were syrians, iraqis, or afghan. today plus's decision came after a request from three nato members, germany, and greece, for international help.
big endorsement today for the white house did of ohio governor john kasich. the home depot cofounder have previous he supported the of new jersey governor chris christie, who exited the race yesterday. finished inich second place behind donald trump in new hampshire earlier this week. a federal judge has ordered the state department to release all of hillary's e-mails by the end of the month. the next batch must be released on or before saturday. the department again making the e-mails public in may after revelations that miss clinton had used a private server and not a government account to send e-mails while secretary of state. the defense calling for broad international support from the u.s. plan to do islamic. he outlined the new strategy today before two dozen defense minister's. the car -- secretary carter says he is more military and
financial aid for the campaign are in one of 20 nations are already helping fight the nations in iraq and syria area global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world and i am mark crumpton. back to you. janet yellen appeared before the senate banking committee today and spoke about the process is of a recession in the u.s. ms. yellen: we are watching developments very carefully. say there is always some chance of a recession in any suggests evidence expansions do not die of old age. at this point, i think it is premature to make a judgment. we will meet in march and our committee will carefully deliberate about what impact is developments have had. betty: our next guest says the market share is focused on
financials and weakness in manufacturing while the real economy is more important. a portfolio manager which has $300 million in assets, joining us now in boston for more. how are you gaming out a recession in the u.s.? >> we do not think a recession is likely at this point as you just voted. they do not dive old age. most indicators still suggest growth. q4 was largely inventory based. we expect to bounce back in q1. the markets at this point are pricing in a significant degree of pessimism and we think it on takes a little bit of shift in perception to shift around some of the values in the market. there is a great opportunity at this point. betty: you are saying we are oversold? >> i think so. look broadly speaking. it is bifurcated. some is very expensive, but looking at the market, stripping
out energy and materials, it prices in a 5% to 6% default rate, which we think is entirely too aggressive next year or it the market should not have default that severe. liquidity could be partially to blame but having the ability to come into the market and provide that liquidity is a fantastic opportunity for investors, we think. betty: let's talk about credit investors. do you think, as pimco seems to have implied, that we are looking at big losses going through the end of the year, miscalculated where the fed will go? >> we do. take some set hikes out of the market, or at least the perception thereof in her testimony. but at 170 or so in the 10-year note, it is coming closer to a greater fools game, where the margin of safety is really
nonexistent. it is hard to time when interest rate will rise -- interest rate rise will come. but yields are too skinny, from a total return standpoint. it is just not an attractive ways to be. betty: they are not attractive. it seems like the jobs market is doing well. credityou think investors are so pessimistic? what are they seeing that the economists are not? >> there is a lot of nervousness and skittishness after a long time of fairly solid returns. a strong obviously concern. the correlation between energy, the dollar am a china, it has all become swept up in one highly correlated trade. it is easy to write a narrative with fairly dire consequences. but it is not when we subscribe to exist. the market is pricing in imminent defaults.
the risk return in some of the spots in the markets offers a great opportunity for those who can have a longer-term time horizon and will less concerned about the next week or month here that is how you have to approach the market. overall, your big take away is what? >> i think the big take away is the u.s. is tied in with global central banks at this point and it is hard to have the u.s. separate from the pack to aggressively, as much as they would like to. we we need to see financial conditions ease. down, spreadse normalize, to take the shackles off the fed. thank you so much. henry peabody in boston. what did you miss, we will have special coverage of the market selloff and that starts at the bottom of this hour. still ahead, it is getting
by 1.5%. string to thetter close than what we have seen earlier in this session. tech's shares have in the best performers right now and you can see the nasdaq is down .2%. it is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. not a great time, words of frustration for the credits we ceo trying to turn around switzerland'second-largest tank and some of the worst turmoil in years. shares have lost almost half of their value since october and slid to a 27 year low today. part of an industrywide selloff raising can service about restructuring plans. boeing is investigating according to people familiar with the matter. projections boeing may for the long-term profitability of the 787 and seven or seven.
it involves the way boeing spread the enormous cost of making the claims over many years. no comment from boeing or the sec. in paris, uber is defending its carved looking in court today saying it has never been found to provide an illicit taxi service in france. two of the company's executives are standing trial over allegations of fraud and illegal activity. dozens of drivers gathered to protest new regulations they say would put them out of work. that is your update. pandora, may be getting ready to belt out a swansong. the radio service has been talking about a possible sale. the stock is jumping on that news. it is no secret the base is chock-full of competition. pandora shares have fallen more than 50% in the past five
months. investors will be listening for more when the company reports earnings after the bell today. cory johnson is in san francisco with preview. is it odd timing that they would be looking at now to possibly sell? >> swansong, really? times or pandora. a lot of things in the business have gotten better. strong growth, 30% in the last quarter. user growth increasing, adding a lot of users. at some of this, the industry headwinds have always been a problem or pandora and remain a problem. they do not have a lot of data about users. mobile advertisers so key to companies like facebook and twitter where they have seen relative success, significant increases in the value of their users, pandora does not have the same amount of data it uses and
growth in the mobile revenue per user, which has been a problem for them as other companies are coming out in a music streaming is this that do not have the same kinds of costs as pandora and you see a lot of competition whether it is from app, a music program, and modify. they are facing a lot of competition so maybe they want to get out while the getting is good. might buy them? >> a great question and i will not speculate. radio is hot. people are listening to more hours of radio than watching television in america are they have also made great inroads into the automakers. the area -- they are stuck on the cars rolling off the lot these days. they have got competitive advantages that could be attractive to someone, the future of audio. betty: you went quickly over that one part. more people are listening to radio than they are watching television now? >> yesterday more people listen to radio every day in america than watch what -- and then watch television.
more people are listening to radio every single day in america than are watching television. it is an interesting change and it is the first time that it happened with the advent of television. radio is holding strong. we think every new media will be bigger than the last of that is not always the case and that is proving that area betty: let's sluice to twitter. people keep talking about -- for twitter. user growth is stalling. we did not see much more after the earnings report. >> very interesting quarter. what we see from twitter is here we have the smallest of the big three social media companies in terms of audience size. twitter, and enormous larger facebook yet it is growing not only the smallest pace in growth but it's all users in the u.s. decline in the past quarter. will not countey
the sms users that have been an important part of the growth. they will discount the number but also give user numbers. things got a little better during the current quarter but that is not reflecting the last quarter. fundamentally, a memo to everyone in the world of business. you sell something for more than it is worth, sell it to more people, and raise your prices. that is what twitter is trying to do. they were able to sell some he for more it is worth, easter about confidence nation cost, and isis. revenue per user has been increasing howbeit at a slower pace. the problem is they are not adding more customers and that is a big problem for the company that needs to grow despite the selloff in the stock. betty: did we hear any solutions coming out from jack dorsey? >> we heard suggestions of trying anxieties -- to see what will stick, but we did not hear about dramatic changes in the project that might affect the
business and at users to the platform. cents -- twont two point $.2 or user is an impressive number and you will see profit get better and better for the company. it is not the kind of massive and hypergrowth the big valuation in stock might suggest. betty: thank you so much, cory johnson. today's options insight as we had to break. a look at safe havens including gold, up the most since 2013 and the 10 year treasury yield just keeps getting lower and lower. ♪
lead options strategist at delta derivatives. he is out in chicago. all of volatility is continuing today. it's seems at the beginning of the jt -- day today, there was another wave, and perhaps dramatic, of pessimism here spurred by the bank selloff. why are we seeing a little alleviation here as we head toward the close? >> very interesting we went down almost exactly what -- honest exactly genuine 20th. think we'll need to see a break of that level significantly to get the nervousness of. six certainly heightened but nowhere near the august and september highs when we saw the market, actually little higher than we are now. julie: remarkably low yields.
1.6% on the 10 year. the options tied to the rate's market, what kind of action is being there? >> absolutely. and we are seeing a lot of feelings being put in here right around, 1.5 and 5% on the 10 year. at some point, the bonds may flip over into the higher yield, higher-quality stocks, given the fact of the yield differential, you can look at apple by yielding 10 on -- a fair amount now. poking around 1.6 level, pretty soon you will probably see a rotation into higher-yielding stocks. utilitieshave seen outperform as well for the region. at the suiking itself, considering what is going on here. you have got a call spread.
it looks like you are seeing some upside here? class cautiously, non-bullish, if you will. i'm positioning for the market to not really race up to new highs here. i'm selling the 195 strike out thearch, hedging by buying 200 strike hard to define my wrist. at a bigoking resistance level here. 7% above where we are currently at here. i'm able to get 7% of the money, that same spread would have only been about 4% of the money, i like selling options spread in the high volatility market. julie: you talked about 180 and 102 as the bottom was his is level there in the sui. is that what will be watching going forward? >> that will absolutely be the critical level. before they turned
on the vigo. a lot of guys when they gore went home. we will see if they have holes. if they had brakes, we will see the markets come down and evict pop-up significantly. i will wait to be a buyer to see. betty: we will watch it in the coming days. well.nuary 20 desk low -- low. betty: stay tuned for what you julie coming up next area mentioned below for the s&p. we are not heading back down in that direction. -- now heading back down in my direction. ♪
alix: markets claw their way higher. opec's is ready on production cuts. losses of 2%. oil is clawing its way back off of a 12 year low. joe: the question is what did you miss? tumblingglobal stocks toward a bear market. we break down the move sector by sector. of a globalears recession. our guest says the focus has moved from china to the u.s. >> a good interest rate, do they actually work? rates, doe interest they actually work? we have an extra half hour to dig in what is going on domestically and abroad. -- examine all the major scenes including the strength of european banks, china, and the u.s. economy or
it lets get to three things that caught our attention in the market. , and&p fast cash index index you wind up looking at. i'm looking at is on a tick by tic basis so you can get the lows here. hit,an see the lows we this one back in 2014. the low in january was about 1812, and here we surpassed that low on intraday basis around 1810 and were able to move up above that level. this is significant. can it hold? what happens if we break below the level? bob says, if we had closed below the 1812 for the s&p, you're looking at potentially going down into the 1738 levels. a lot of room for downside. a long way off. it is good we touched that
level today and did not completely deteriorate. >> and can we sustain that for the close? janet yellen has been testifying on capitol hill and did not give the market any answers. second-guess his spirit i'm looking at the work function on the bloomberg here at world interest rate probability. raise rateshe fed in december, there has been a market for betting on a fed rate cut. courtney, can you pull it up for me? what you are basically looking at are the odds of a rate cut. it is the white line at the bottom. it is coming up and is now higher than the odds of a rate increase, which is the line coming down for most of 2016. that is interesting. we are not talking about a god's . a notable shift in sentiment nonetheless. >> it is extraordinary waking up this morning and looking at this
function first thing in the morning. markets were pricing zero chance of another rate hike basically and even then, it was still 7%. s -- it has changed a little bit today. there is a slightly more chance of a rate hike but that was an extraordinary thing to see in the morning. a little talk about bit of good news, which is that the u.s. economic data on the labor side is not deteriorating that much. i will go inside bloomberg and one of my favorite charts for a long time has in to compare initial jobless claims versus the s&p 500 era flipped over initial -- initial jobless claims. they are pretty near their best levels since the crisis. for a long time, they marched steadily together. initial jobless claims is the four-week moving average. to smooth things out a little bit and get rid of the week to week noise.
that is holding up close to the best levels. , stock it the s&p markets really deteriorated. it would be interesting to see maybe initial jobless claims or job markets will improve to reflect the fact that the economy has not fallen off a cliff. it has definitely been a thing lately, you see some signs of deterioration, not dramatic. today we got a surprise beat on the number. it is not falling off like people might fear. the check oft with the headlines this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: john kerry and russian foreign minister open talks today to try to bridge deep differences over a proposed cease-fire for the syrian civil war. the median germany took lace following the report that russia was seeking a march 1 cease-fire.
end toe looking for an the hostility, saying they are going to give the syrian government time to crush groups. militaryea ordered a takeover of the factory complex run jointly with south korea here in this came after the south suspended operations after it the site. trucks carrying workers and equipment from the complex back to south korea. all south korean assets were frozen. the navy today exposed to breezes came from the north's rocket test. the latest provocation of the breakdown. a federal judge delayed the trial of a white man accused of killing nine black people at a charleston south carolina church. the church is waiting to see if the federal government will seek the death penalty. dylan faces dozens of federal charges. trial and state court starts in july.
legislators have advanced legislation that would require doctors to perform ultrasounds prior to abortions and then describe what he is seeing for patients. the measure is the latest effort by board -- by abortion .pponents global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. scarlet: just last week, the founder and ceo predicted the s&p 500 would resume its decline and continued's original projection of 1700 to 1780. by phone fromow scottsdale, arizona. are you updating your projections? >> we are. we have done a lot of work theuse of the intensity of decline. we have come up with a sensitivity to the broad-based market. in particular, the small-cap and
mid-cap index. all three of them look like they could qualify as early as today. a bottom're looking at today? >> not in s&p and dow jones. that may take two or three days. the lowoing to undercut we need in january as well as today. we could see the market decline as low as 1792 on espn, the futures march. 1797 is what we are looking at. and 1780.t from 1770 we have a caveat. market, it will be possibly tapped with negative news. butould go as low as 1746 still struggle and come back about 1792. alix: how fast do we get there?
>> november 3, we turned negative on the market and espn and we have a negative throughout the entire decline. back in august, we turned temporarily positive and looked and then wet rallied in december and looked at the decline and as recently as january 20, we identify the bottom we were on the air at the same time the bun was made. we look for a five to 8% rally with a seven point or percent rally. -- 7.4% rally. it looks like we could eat up a and really surprised everybody. crude oil and other markets we are following closely, crude oil could bottom as soon as tomorrow or monday. andould see bonds stopped gold will go on his own. gold will continue. >> we saw hong kong trading open
today. what do you see in the shares market, chinese stocks in hong kong? >> we called to the exact date every turn. the age scei, we fell short by 14 points. we look for decline. we need two lower closes on the hse i. and two on shanghai. that caveat, we are looking for a sharp decline possibly to mark the spot and a rally of significance, maybe 40%. we are in a long-term downtrend. november -- the november sp top to the current low. >> what about oil? you said it could bottom as soon as tomorrow. >> i think at least a 40% rally there. between 40 and 44, we are at. but it is significant.
seeing things turn. it is all in sync. we thought the dog would wag retail. it looks like the dog in that regard. we could bottom in the u.s. first. i was thinking it would be just we will see, but within one to two days, that decline we have been looking for. i think we will see now. the light is there. and i think the pessimism is there. with the vix index, you're not seeing the extremes. >> thank you very much very much. we appreciate all your calls. looking for a bottom in the few days. next, fears are mounting over european banks. are any of them in real danger of collapse? the way, here is the nasdaq as we head toward the close. a two-dayooking at
betty: time for a look at some of the biggest news stories right now. donald trump and univision have settled their lawsuit over the miss usa pageant. the terms of the deal are confidential. trump did sue for $5 million in damages for alleged breach of contract. they sued -- he sued the broadcaster following controversial content -- comments he made about mexicans.
a settlement that includes $550 million in cash and other benefits for new york on top of $2.6 billion on payments previously disclosed in regulatory fire -- filing. >> goldman sachs determined it reached indeterminate guidelines. people familiar determined partners on its advisory role in the middle east. goldman is said to have determined events of the bankers do not identify themselves as employees at a meeting with the company. that is your update. investors turned on european banks. the bank index is down 30% this year. the problem is mounting concern about the banks debt load. in the what people industry are saying about the situation. >> people are scared and worried about the banking system. >> panic and fear. you are seeing some of them trade at 30% of book value. a very stressed
environment for a bank. >> to which it is trading 240 basis points. 200 46 basist points. that is important markets are differentiating the been the banks. >> all the banks have been overly aggressive in the past. >> and of the year last year, created concerns. that totally settles it. >> i think it is pretty sound. you are ahead of the rest of them and also have the best wealth management. credit squeeze are probably in a better position than deutsche bank. it is the german bank. politically, they will stand up if they need a safety net and give it to them. >> we went out and raise capital early in the process and then we raised capital a second time. banks have been
slow to getting themselves recapitalize and getting the balance sheet in the best place it could be. unhinged,nks become we are in a completely different place. i do not think that will happen, but i will keep an eye on it every single morning. >> so what is really going on? are the banks really in bad shape? we want to bring in michael moore for more. and credit at stocks default swaps. they are telling you something bad is going on. ratios doying capital they reflect some the like that? we're waiting for the other shoe to drop. this kind of move in six weeks does not seem to be brought on by the capital numbers. deutsche bank cancel their dividends for this year to try to build capital. need to beedge they better capitalized. if you look at now compared to
where they were going in the financial crisis, it is a dramatic difference. joe: we are not seeing anything ellis like acute funding stretch. the bankhe measures, funding, a general level or bank specific level, look like they are phasing out. >> right we are not seeing the short-term funding. it seems to be that people do not have a reason to buy right now. a lot of the banks have set themselves that 2016 will not be a great year. and said that even before you are not getting a pay out in the meantime. there is not a ton of reason but on the other hand, you knew that two months ago. adding to whatis was a rough start to the year for the trading businesses. credit suisse had a rough fourth quarter in trading. maybe some of that traded over debt carried over but we are not seeing a cute thing. it seems to be a long-term russian about, can these banks
turn their strategy into profits. collective you look at the on their earnings results, nothing has really changed all that much. what is fascinating is as badly as financials have done, european financials have done worse. the u.s. financials are trading at a more than 2-1 ratio for european peers, a record high. how did european banks become a proxy for broad and global worries about the economy? is the difference in exposure between international and the u.s.. the u.s. economy does look better by comparison in the banks have it greater share there. difference is what gary was talking about, u.s. banks raise capital a little earlier, even though they face the same profitability questions, they are not facing the same capital russians. the differences on the capital ratios are not that tremendous,
but they seem to have gained the confidence of investors that they can get there. put on the convertible bonds and what happened there, falling off a cliff as the risk set into the market. do investors have to buy credit default swaps and sell the underlying stocks? there is no way to hedge these types of bonds so is that adding a lot of pressure? if you're not happy with the price, you can find a different way to hedge it here there is no direct way. that certainly has added some fuel to it. those are the ones who have really come under fire because you stopestion of, do the interest payments on it? there are methods there that are not as punitive. >> as an asset class, it is a way to ease some of the drain -- strain, do people think it
failed or work? >> this is presumably them working. if risk goes up, you know, they handle the risk. taxpayers are not stepping in and the risk is being felt in the bonds. part of it is the market is only three years old and they are not the most transparent instruments. there are interesting, mechanicals going on underneath the surface. you have to have a certain amount of liquidity available. i think if people had a better understanding, they would not be quite the selloff on one date's news. so much.you coming up, we look at the asset classes as we head into the opening bell. that act is now positive. the dow recovering from what was a four-point loss. ♪
alix: markets close in eight minutes and julie hyman has a check on your markets on this crazy day. julie: an update for the nasdaq, very barely as markets have recovered from the lows following oil prices. the s&p 500 is one example. all of the chin gently of the three-day averages roughly the same bumping along the bottom before taking a leg upward just after the close of oil. in terms of the movers we have been watching, we talked about boeing under investigation for its accounting practices that are widespread at some of his competitors as well. have seen industrials broadly lower. cisco systems are bucking the down trend and rising after it latest earnings report. at earningsick look prices. we have seen a recovery, even though still down two thirds of 1%. i slept make of all this
volatility. let's start with you because julie had mentioned after the oil markets closed, we saw a little bit of recovery. >> the headline suggesting opec was talking about coordinating a ofduction cut and the timing it was amazing. i have had my eye on the chart 500 fromthe s&p january. tend toe that congregate at least to support things in the short term. that headline came right as the s&p did about two points below 1812. it is hard to say is it is supported that level or if it were the oil rebound. you look at the biggest movers from 237, energy shares rebounded about 3%. it is certainly a part of the story. definitely, there is a little support there at that low. >> in terms of the hedge fund
selling that you are keeping an eye on, a lot of us are widely owned by hedge funds. seen is something we have a few times before but a little different now as a market , youility the past month can see from investing standpoint in terms of who is causing the volatility, we have , they'rey colleague really not doing it. those guys are saying, it is a good time to buy some stocks. managers, hedge funds folks, they have been under so much pressure and down quite a bit here you have seen closures and what happens is they get that strain and have to create some capital somehow. there got to fill some stocks if you're getting redemptions or margin calls or whatever it may be nec the ones most help -- most owned by hedge funds getting creamed. joe: there are two big stories going around right now. the negative rates story that the market hates the negative rates. the other is oil hurting sovereign wealth funds, and
sovereign wealth funds liquidating assets so it is all about oil. what story are you hearing on those things? >> it is all of those above. we had a chart out showing how heavily invested wealth funds are in financial sit -- financial shares specifically. cannot go wrong with blaming it on oil. as you pointed out, the 30 day correlation is pretty strong. intraday is hard to kneel down. withook at today in oil surround and that is what happens with stocks. alix: thank you so much. searche fast commentary, bloomberg gadfly. we will be right back. ♪
from the closing bell. you are watching a special edition of "what'd you miss?" slide,ocks cutting their crude bounced off the lowest level in 12 years. , perhapsas overdone due for a clawback. nasdaq did rise before making its way south. joe: a sad end at the very end. it looked like the nasdaq was going to make a heroic coverage -- recovery. alix: you did see markets rebound along with oil. it coincided with the s&p raking below that 1812 level it hit on january 20. it went below that, then rallied. we have a triple bottom around that level. what happens?