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tv   With All Due Respect  Bloomberg  May 23, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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mark: with all due respect to you might need to boost your name recognition. >> bob corker seen going into a meeting with donald trump. >> who is that guy? >> i don't know who that is. >> who is it? >> i don't know. mark: tonight, we are uncorking fresh polling data because the political world has now guzzled down the general election head-to-head dead heat numbers
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between donald trump and hillary clinton. they also showed astronomical unfavorable ratings for both candidates in a race that is, again, essentially now tied. hillary leading trump by eight points. the other survey that got a lot of attention has trump leading clinton in a head-to-head -40 3%., 46 percent 46 percent-40 4%. that is an 11 point swing. .- 44% that is an 11 point swing. what are the most heartening and the most troubling numbers in these polls? the mostrall, heartening thing for donald trump is that republicans have come home. is that he'sbling
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in the same place mitt romney was on election day 2012, and mitt romney got wiped out. all the productions of gloom and doom and republicans not supporting trump, -- predictions of gloom and doom and republicans not supporting trump, if i were him, i would be happy. mark: despite him losing to clinton on a series of traits, he is even with her. he has to radically improve his numbers in terms of trait to to have a chance to win. the other heartening thing is the meta-thing. republicans think he can win. independents is heartening. downside, his numbers have improved. his standing has improved. but he is still behind.
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he does lose a lot in traits. where he is behind in traits, clinton can use that to leverage. people thinking she is better on foreign policy and on a range of issues where he would rather be stronger. but overall, i would say more good news for trump. john: way more good news then bad news. just to go further on what i said before, he's doing badly with nonwhite voters and is in trouble with women. not as bad as you might have thought with women. he is either going to have to move the needle on nonwhite voters, or he is going to end up where romney was. you can't win a general election with those numbers. he doesn't have to revolutionize what rummy did with nonwhite voters. if he continues to dominate -- romney did with nonwhite voters. if he continues to dominate with white male voters so
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substantially, this could the the last election where republicans don't have to make much progress with nonwhite voters. issue.he taxes we must make him pay a price for it. shows it's a real problem for him, not releasing his tax returns. a huge part of why he is ahead within theor even margin of error is that he is doing well with independents. a vast majority of independents say he should release his tax returns. 44% of republicans say he showed. if thoseon't know numbers are high enough to make him do it. john: it's a vulnerability. the data wasface, not entirely 100% gloom and doom for hillary clinton. majority of people had a
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positive view of president obama. his approval rating was 51%. to the extent there is any good news for hillary clinton, what is the best news in this poll for hillary clinton, and the most troubling signs? mark: obama's approval rating is above 50%. if he is above 50%, given that she is somewhat running on continuity, that is good for her. she leads in a lot of traits, women, foreign policy, looking out for the middle class, being a good commander in chief. she leads in all of those by a lot or a lot a lot, and i think the reality for her is this is a wake-up call. when the clinton campaign said this would be a tight race, a lot of people didn't believe it. i sense in the clinton campaign a greater sense of urgency, and an ability to raise money and
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which they didn't have before. the fact that they got a wake-up call this early, i think is good. her becauseood for it shows that he is in the race. people will say it's not true. it's obviously true. the biggest problem in 2012 in the obama campaign was donors and others thinking it was in beingg for him, and not willing to write checks. and think democrats are more likely to come home if they than thatp can win she has a huge, insurmountable lead. but there are a lot of troubling signs here. she is not nearly as far ahead with women as she should be. and to see trump this close not having to revolutionize the race tells you she has a lot of work to do. another person who has
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been watching these polls carefully is bernie sanders. points out, as he has in the betterhat he does against trump than hillary clinton does. many americans dislike both hillary clinton and donald trump. here is how bernie sanders responded to a question about why he continues to fight for a nomination that remains a mathematical longshot. mr. sanders: we need a campaign, havelection, that does not two candidates that are strongly disliked. i do not want the american people voting for the lesser of two evils. >> is that how you would clinton, theary lesser of two evils? mr. sanders: if you look -- no, i wouldn't describe it, but that's what the american people are saying. whoa. sanders is still in the middle debbiesty spat with
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wasserman schultz, the party chair. this week, he endorsed her challenger and said he would not keep her as the party leader if he was elected president. clinton did little to quell the tension when she was asked about all that is going on with bernie sanders. ms. clinton: certainly, we are going to talk with him when he is ready to talk, and listen to him. we will take into account what he is asking for. i think that's part of the process. rid of about getting superdelegates? ms. clinton: i am not going to negotiate with him today on your show, but when it is time, i am reaching out to unify the party. i expect him to do the same. i did that when i lost a much closer race to senator obama. mark: in what seemed to be an attempt to calm the waters, the dnc announced it was giving sanders a significant number of
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spots on the committee that will draft of the platform. seats, sanders gets nearly one third, one less than clinton. do things stand between bernie sanders and the woman he says as may be the lesser of two evils? they are worse today than they were on friday. in 2008, there was just as much or more work to do. but nothing is getting easier right now. sanders is not backing off. everybody is testy. everybody is kind of at each other's throats. are morethink things hostile and antagonistic than they were 72 hours ago. the: here is what i think big problem is on the clinton campaign right now. clearly, this is a bigger distraction than some of us thought it would be. is going to the
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convention. it's not let's see what happens after california. they are going to the convention. that means more pain, more division from the first and second week of june through july. john: we will see where we are on june 8. you remember back in 2008, people were telling hillary clinton until the night of the last party that she should go on to the convention and was still calling her the next president of the united states. mark: it's a big distinction if they can get him to back down. ited on the last 72 hours, doesn't look that way right now. john: i agree. the economy, stupid, hillary clinton's version of the 1992 campaign slogan. ♪
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john: hillary clinton today gave a speech at the service employees international union conference. she revved up her rhetoric about trump and his economic and john -- economic agenda. ms. clinton: he could bankrupt america like he's bankrupted his companies. , how cansk yourself anybody lose money running a casino, really? [laughter] that's a pretty good
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question, you know. but we have started to notice something about hillary clinton and her go to messaging on the economy. time, it is more anti-trump than pro-clinton. is more of the time, it anti-trump than pro-clinton. she and her campaign have failed to articulate her vision in any detail. in an exchangece with a clinton surrogate. >> what are her two best original ideas on the economy? >> infrastructure investment that can create jobs, and putting people together like she has done in the senate. as you know, i worked in the senate for 15 years before i went to the white house. and ay had a reputation record of pulling people together to get things done. mark: is either of those an
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original idea on the economy? she has a very clear vision of where she is going to take the country, and that is a vision she is going to run on in the fall. john: does hillary have an economic message, and if so, what is it? mark: there are some things on her website. [laughter] policy proposals. most involve an expansion of government. she says she will not raise middle-class taxes. a 20 yearhas been drought in both parties. the think tanks, the congressional thought leaders, very few new big ideas that the middle class can grab onto and say man, that's a good idea. that's a tax cut i get. that's an education plan i get. i can see how that is going to help my family. , have yet to find anybody including jim mussina, who can
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articulate them in a way that's exciting. infrastructure is important, but i don't hear a lot of people talking about it. he did not like my response to his response. to mock theasy website, and i know that's not exactly what you're doing, but hillary clinton has a lot of good policy proposals. none of them are going to revolutionize the world, but she has economic proposals on childhood education and other things that would fit very well in her husband's old ideas on the economy. grab bag.ike a what she fails at his economic messaging. when her husband put those ideas wereher, they revolutionary in 1991, and he had putting people first, human capital, globalization and digitization of the economy and how all this stuff fits together. he had a narrative.
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he had slogans. it was exciting. she just has a bunch of ideas. that thought because we are going to talk to brian fallon. but not yet. coming up next, how trump support compares to what support for mitt romney in 2012 was like. that after these words from our sponsors. ♪
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mark: here to talk more about the general election surveys that everybody is talking about, our favorite pollster. good to see you.
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tell us about your overall take polls that show dead heat between trump and clinton. >> right. well, one of the things that they show is that in some cases, clinton leads a little. in some cases, trump leads a little. the question i always get from people is how do i decide what polls i am going to pay attention to. there are so many polls, that people would really like help doing it. here is the perfect day to explain how to sort them out. when you have the same polling outfit doing polls overtime, you look at the trend. any problem you might have with an individual pole is controlled for when you look at that same problem time after time after time. what we have here is consistency in terms of the swing.
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you see trump gaining ground as hillary clinton is losing ground. whether that is eight points, 11 points, there is consistency. the fox poll had eight points as well, i think. what you had from last month until now, consistency across three different polls showing trump moving. that's what you can take to the bank, is that in the american electorate, that's the mood right now. a lot of people have commented about how high the unfavorables are for these candidates. amonghis shows is that trump supporters and clinton supporters both, is that if you ask are you voting for your candidate or against the other candidate, it's basically a split. affirmationlly an of their candidate. how does that play out going forward? what does that mean for what we are going to see in the next few months?
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>> a common question you ask as a follow-up is how strongly you are committed to your candidate. it's also a test of candidate strength. is not ansay this affirmative vote for my candidate, it's a negative vote against the other, we think of those votes as being more fragile. if you come to the election upset with the other candidate but you are not that gung ho about the candidate you are supporting, you can wane and your support could evaporate. is for people to be making the affirmative case. in office. candidate therefore, i will work for them, send money to them, all of those things. if you are just anti-, those things are a little more amorphous. these candidates roughly splitting the difference, almost half and half of their supporters making the affirmative vote versus the
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negative vote. they are pretty much on the same shaky ground that way. -- because how common is that, really? what can we learn going back to 2012 and seeing how mitt romney and barack obama were doing at the same time? it's a little apple storage is here, but it tells you something because the finding is so striking. lookedmney's numbers about like these, but barack obama's numbers, by 3-1, his voters were making the affirmative case. barack, they were for obama instead of just being against romney. we know how that turns out, so that gives us a little bit of monday morning quarterbacking to do. feel stronglye to positive about your candidacy, and both of these candidates are suffering a little bit because of that. talked about this earlier.
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people have been saying trump has something that looks a lot like the romney coalition. romney lost. to grow in a position in areas where he is already strong? how'd you look at that? >> we are looking at a national poll. even overall mood. trump is doing even better than romney did with some very important, large groups. one of those groups eating whites. one of those -- being whites. one of those groups being men. while romney had a 7% advantage with man, that number is 23% with trump. john: let me stop you there. romney did what he did. trump could either increase the share of the vote that comes from men. that seems unlikely. or do even better with man.
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and do even better with whites. could the contribution from whites be higher in 2016 even as america becomes a more diverse nation, or is that unlikely to be part of the formula for trump? >> if i understand you, you're wondering about turnout, can you increase the turnout of the white vote? that's probably going to be harder to do. he will probably concentrate on the share. but keep in mind, we don't elect a president by a national vote. this will play out differently in the battleground states where this election will be won. man, that's going to play out everywhere about the same. but the white vote is going to play out differently in new and iowa than florida and nevada. they will have a different , and that'ste plan on the clinton side as well. mark: im not predicting are
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advocating. i am just saying as a matter of seems like he could get the white vote in some states up a little higher in terms of the contribution of the vote and do better with white did, andan met romney given the share of the vote that is the white vote, that alone could flip the formula in some states that be the formula that thes some states -- be formula that flips some states. >> it could very well be. donald trump is gathering a bigger share of independents right now, and that could be the key. john: let's talk about the independent equation where trump is doing better than romney was right now. factor in the sanders-clinton fight with that in the last 30 seconds here. >> that's exactly right. also to the affirmative case versus the negative case. how much of the anti-clinton
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vote is due to the bernie people who are so committed that they will never vote for hillary clinton? week that 11%ast of sanders supporters said they would vote for trump because they could not see themselves voting for hillary clinton. the independent vote, right now, the two candidates are getting about and even share. the democrats are more plentiful, so that's how you can lose the independent vote and still win. so, we will be looking at all three of these groups. mark: thank you very much. coming up next, the clinton campaign's brian fallon joins us. we will ask him about the economy, donald trump, and so much more. ♪
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okay, ready? whoa! [ explosion ] nothing should get in the way of the things you love. ♪ get america's fastest internet. only from xfinity. john: welcome back. us in our studio's brian
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fallon, the press secretary for hillary clinton's presidential campaign. which bridge did you come over? >> brooklyn. john: thank you for doing that. that jimd out earlier mussina, obama campaign manager from 2012, now on your campaign, had trouble answering the question about hillary clinton's economic ideas. can you tell us what some of her economic ideas are question mark >> first of all, i thought his answer was just nine. -- ideas are? >> first of all, i thought his answer was just fine. mark: what original about it? >> a few things. the first speeches she gave was about raising wages and a profit-sharing proposal that would incentivize companies to reward workers whose productivity has been responsible for economic gains. that's not about the infrastructure. >> its original. mark: is there anything original
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about the infrastructure plan? >> how she would pay for it. asking the wealthy to do more. that will be announced in our corporate tax reform plan. i heard the discussion in the earlier segment. you guys should know that we put out a raft of different middle-class tax cut proposals including targeting prescription drug cost and child care, but we have not revealed the full extent of our middle-class tax proposal. coming.ore is cracks absolutely. and we did that with an eye toward preserving it for the .eneral -- more is coming >> absolutely. and we did that with an eye toward preserving it for the general election. hillary clinton views the tax code as a vehicle for helping incentivize responsible behavior by corporate citizens. you have the profit sharing proposal that i mentioned. she would also use the tax code
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to diss incentivize some of the irresponsible corporate behavior we have seen. she would impose an exit tax on companies that try to register their headquarters abroad. that is something we have seen president obama crackdown on. all of those companies that go offshore, we are going to tax them as soon as you try to leave. she also has a clawback proposal, where if you close a factory in the united states and jobs overseas, we are going to clawback the r&d tax credit that helped you -- mark: these are specific proposals. how would you characterize her philosophy? >> what it all adds up to? the story we will tell in the general election is that president obama has done a herculean task in terms of of ang the country out
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great recession that rivaled the depression of several decades ago, but that the prosperity we are starting to see is not fully shared, and we still have a stacked deck where to much of the rewards of the improved economy are flowing to the top in terms of ceo pay and shareholder dividends. not enough of that money is flowing down into the workforce. she would support economic policy that would take money from people who are doing well and move it down the corporate ladder? >> that's what the profit sharing incentive is all about. it's a carrot, not a stick, but i think it would be a significant inducement and it's smart corporate behavior. if you look at the greek yogurt company based in new york, the company made headlines for announcing that rank-and-file workers would he reported with stock. we think that is the type of -- be rewarded with stock. we think that is the type of
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smart approach to business that should be incentivized by the government. goalas said her number one is to see wages rise. that hasn't happened in a couple of decades. mark: buy? >> i am not going to put a number on it, but the goal is to see something we haven't seen since the 1990's, which is more people put to work with higher wages. john: is president clinton and advisor on the economy now and in what way? >> as you know better than most people, he has a wealth of ideas at any given time. what she referred to in terms of the role he would play in in a ministration is not an official role where he would be the -- in an administration is not an official role or a cabinet post. she made the comments in kentucky and west virginia with an eye toward how can we lift up -- ideas he hasre
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given her that she is espousing on the campaign trail now? >> i am not going to credit any of these proposals to him solely. i think that would not be accurate. she has a raft of individuals she solicits ideas from, and these proposals are her own. mark: she has spoken about getting too for the price of one. cannot hurt her question -- wo for the price of one. can that hurt her? think she would be laughed at if she suggested she wasn't going to be listening to his advice. her counsel been contacted by the fbi? >> not to my knowledge. is, will youe announce that? >> i tend to think it will not
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escape notice for very long. mark: so there has not been a preliminary conversation about where and when? >> let me be clear because sometimes political opponents suggest we are being misleading. since last august when this review was first announced, david kendall has been in recurring touch with officials at the justice department, as anybody would, but nothing has moved toward hey, it can we schedule an appearance? it's being reported that terry mcauliffe is being investigated. do you know anything about that? >> i do not. mark: do you have any comment on that in general? >> i am not going to weigh in on the report. i don't know anything about it. john: i am sure you are aware of the incident about what donald trump posted today. >> i have watched it. john: what do you think of it? >> this is the latest in his
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roger stone developed strategy to try to distract from an issues-based campaign, which is what we intend to run. to be honest, i think it's bad strategy. smart republican operatives go on television and say they have tested these lines of attack and they actually alienate independent voters, especially women. to me, every day he engages in this type of stuff is a misspent opportunity to do the outreach he needs to do to improve his numbers. is it your plan to go through the whole campaign responding in this way? it would be fair if it was, but the idea of we are not going to dignify that with a response. >> it was two decades ago. i don't think donald trump himself used these -- views these attacks as having some kind of political upside with independent voters. trying to practice
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the politics that worked for him in the primary, which is just throw stuff out there, try to get under people's skin, get into people's heads, take whatever collateral damage it might bring in terms of his own negatives -- which are well-deserved and hard earned at this point. people talk about his negatives and hillary clinton's being apples to apples. his own words have added up to those high negatives. for her, they are the product of attacks directed at her. theink he has courted downside of accruing these high negatives because he thinks this is a way to get in his opponents head and psych them out. hillary clinton is not going to go for that. she sat for 11 hours before the benghazi hearing in october. this is somebody who has a steel backbone. john: luckily, we are going to continue to try to crack you for the next few months.
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next, a different kind of washington establishment. us or listen to us on the radio. we will be right back. ♪
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now from the washington post newsroom, a great reporter with a great story about bill clinton and his invisible campaign for his wife. people might be surprised how he is able to keep a low profile even though the press is so interested in him. why are they doing it that way? , a couple of reasons.
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--s a way of first of all it's quite literally impossible to keep up with him. he's in a plane. you're in a car. he will sometimes have five or six stops a day. taking him primarily to small and medium-sized markets where he can make a big splash in the local press. everybody in the town knows him there. without the national presence, you don't get all the other stuff that follows a presidential campaign. of the model kind they adopted at the end of the 2008 campaign after president clinton got in trouble earlier in the campaign. do you think he is comfortable -- he is very happy in this has nott it is clear he made very many waves?
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2000 eight, the obama campaign said one of the reasons they were surprised at losing the texas primary was the ill clinton was running up and down radarexas below the pulling votes out of west texas. he seems by all appearances to really be enjoying himself. he does not only several rallies and speeches today, but he will stop at a local restaurant, local bar, hang out with people and talk. this keeps him a little bit out of the target of donald trump. trump isgly, donald making the former president and attacking point. this way, he doesn't have to constantly be responding to it. mark: who will do more
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interviews between now and trump or malign you bill clinton? >> in the last few months, it of been trumped doing more them. you are right. it's a remarkable situation. had aearlier today, trump special guest at trump tower, bob corker, who you know, of course, as the senator from the foreignhair of relations committee, and a guy everyone has been talking about as a possible running mate. that may die down after today. joining us to talk about the meeting is the guy who brought us word of the meeting. bob corker played down any notion he would be on the ticket. it seems to me his bio is right up the alley of what trump has talked about. does he seem like someone who is under consideration, could be, should be? >> he is certainly on the list
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for the vp spot. trump said he wants an insider, wants somebody with washington credibility. corker is chair of the foreign relations committee. these guys don't know each other, but corker comes out of the real estate world of tennessee and is one of the wealthiest members of congress. it seems like temperamentally they may get on ok. chris christie and donald trump, i understand how they are friends, how they would work together, may be combustible he, but i would understand it. , but ie combustible would understand it. corker doesn't seem like that. the vp role, when you talk to trump insiders, they are not looking for an attack dog. they have the attack dog at the top of the ticket. they are looking for a dick
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cheney like george w. bush had in 2000, someone who can help them out on policy. my hunch was it was going to be chris christie. talk of newt gingrich confuses me. bob, thank you. we will talk to you soon. back, we go into the zone of words we love. ♪
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joining us now from sunny los angeles, veteran consultant
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bob shrum. a lot of people are panicking about the polls and the degree of disarray and dissension within your party. to be don't seems panic. why? >> first, the demographics strongly favored clinton. if you look at trump's ratings among young people, women, ispanics, african-americans, honestly have a hard time getting him over the hump to 1% of the vote. its characteristic to wring your hands. a lot of people are worried, probably more worried than they should be at this point. from trump. a tweet why not panic about that? that'se are signs
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abated. she herself sounds conciliatory. she is saying in one way over and over again that the things that unite us are stronger than what divide us. we have claire mccaskill saying nice things about bernie sanders. sharon brown during the same thing. the platform committee being reconstituted and sanders ppoint fivea members. i think there is an understanding on the clinton campaign's part that whatever frustrations you have, you need bernie sanders. you need to work out a deal with him where the party can come together around principles, reforms in the nominating , and then you need to harness him to go into the fall and help bring his voters to clinton. what about trump scares you?
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>> his unpredictability. it's a great weakness on his part. i think he will provide continuing ammunition in the form of intemperate statements. but on the other hand, the unpredictability makes it tough to prepare for a debate with him. you have to prepare for wild trump, mild trump, and somewhere in between trump. mark: i know you think she is going to win, but you don't rule out that he could win. >> i don't, and i don't think the campaign should. if he does, how will that be? >> game change cubed, number one. i think it will happen if the does not takegn advantage of opportunities, consolidate democrats, reach out to sanders supporters and independents. there's always a chance, but i don't buy the argument that there could be an exogenous incident, a terror attack, for
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example, that instantly benefits donald trump, not when 61% of people don't think he has the temperament to be president of the united states. it might lead voters to say we need someone reliable, steady, who knows what they are doing. sure, he could win. i just don't think it's going to happen. by the way, i did say last summer that he could be the republican nominee, and people said i was crazy. these numbers now are sort -- whereromney was on romney was in 2012. it plausible -- i mean, it seems to me that americans are pretty familiar with donald trump now, including his phone or abilities. what new information will the clinton campaign bring out that could hurt him? >> i think there will be a lot more focus on his business
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record, which did not get much attention during the primaries. donald trump's business record could potentially put pain in the shade. i think it will be worse for him than the romney stuff was. i think the clinton folks should step back and think about doing some positive advertising, getting people to know her better. biggest opportunity is going to be the acceptance speech, unmediated communication, 45 minutes to an hour. she has a chance to confound stereotypes. but leading up to that, i think she should look at advertising connect help her better with the american people. i don't think you run a purely negative campaign, but i do think this will be the most brutal campaign we have seen in our lifetimes from both sides. mark: i agree with you on both points. from the trump point of view, do you think he has cards up his sleeve?
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think he has any secret cards up his sleeve, but i think we will hear about every old clinton non-scandal, monica lewinsky. he will attack the president, attack the clinton foundation. to some extent, a lot of voters have heard all this before. i don't know what impact it will have. her numbers on honest and trustworthy, which are pretty low right now, will go up as she engages with trump, but i don't think he has any secret weapon. i can't imagine what it is. like donald rumsfeld said, it's an unknown unknown. is always a pleasure to have you on the shown and have the tricks up your sleeve shown off for us. >> i don't have any tricks. thanks guys, it was fun. john: we will be right back with the end of the show. ♪
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mark: got some time? check out right now, a report on gun sales. coming up, emily chang speaks about artificial intelligence on "bloomberg west." thanks for watching. we will be back tomorrow with all the latest political news. we will see you then. sayonara. ♪
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mark: you are watching "bloomberg west." let's begin with a first check of your news. prosecutors failed a second time in an effort to hold the ball --
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hold the baltimore police accountable in the death of freddie gray. they cleared the officer in the assault and other charges in the arrest of gray. the six other officers charged in the case with a separate trials over the coming months. in new york, donald trump met with u.s. senator bob corker. the tennessee republican was asked of trump was considering him for a running mate or for a cabinet position. >> i have no response whatsoever. i will say that until i am blue in my face. getting to know each other and that is it. mark: austria's far right has conceded defeat in the presidential race. an indepnt


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