tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg January 3, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
winners. topping $34,000 in weekend trading. it gained 50% in december alone. majors --ergy expelling telecom companies this week. we are going to take a look at the markets. we join sophie kamaruddin from hong kong. first day of the trading year for asia. what are you seeing? happy new year. already out the gate in japan, local media reporting tokyo government will be asking restaurants to close no later than 8:00 p.m. the virus is top of mind. stocks closed out 2020 at a record high. quiet in new zealand. we do have pmi readings across
the region. singapore gdp data as well. will betralia, we getting december home prices. ,hecking in on offshore yuan trading below 6.50 against the greenback. we are waiting on chinese manufacturing and we will be gauging reaction to the news that chinese telcos will be by the u.s.o that may temper optimism from emerging markets. msci intohed the overbought territory. week,: a new trading day, and year again with plenty of risk factors still on the table even as the bulls yet ready to charge ahead again. kotok, us is david
chairman and ceo from cumberland advisors. i think we are all hoping for another great year for stocks. who wouldn't? how bullish are you? happy. so nice to see you. to a risingard stock market albeit some rotation from what was last year. that as long as the fed continues the liquidity bubble going which it is going and asset inflation is underway stockis happening, then markets are heading higher and they are heading higher without regard to the old, traditional valuation techniques which would tell you the market is very expended. but it has momentum attached to
worldwidesive liquidity. currently today, we are nearly fully invested. vaccines are starting to come on board in the u.s. and around the world. ipo craze. on the bubble checklist. i think a lot of people would add bitcoin. are you worried about a bubble? i am worried about a bubble. the question is -- what do you do? if you sit in cash, earn zero and wait for the bubble or do you play the momentum with the diversification that you try to achieve in a portfolio i sector, sector, industry
-- a long run? a long run that could take place like 1998 and 1999? it could be substantial. we don't think this is over. the second part is the recovery phase from a deep bottom is the marketsust period for and we are in the recovery phase, the upward side of the v. vaccines and the release of cabin fever, spending, resumption of consumption, passport, travel, all of the various things will make that recovery robust for a while so we want to remain invested in it. problem that clarity over what a will lookmic paradigm like is missing?
what if we don't get that profit rebound? will there be a bad reversion? risk and weis a big worry about that. we have penciled out an estimate for s&p 500 earnings for 2020 two. 2020 one being a transition year. 2022. we have a range between $200-$220 on the s&p 500 and that is a guideline guess. we cannot get closer than that because we don't know enough about the recovery. recoveryo know is the is underway and that is the positive momentum. i am very worried about this but i am a professional worrier so i have had a lot of practice in the last 50 years. sot: people pay you to worry i'm glad to hear that. i want to bring up one of our charts, one that our chart
maestros called chart of the year. it includes the performance of the s&p 500. it is closely correlated. we talk about the torre nts--is a temper tantrum something to worry about from investors? david: i remember the last temper tantrum. the great, before financial crisis, we would see fed that the fed raise interest , or even invert the yield curve. i remember talking to kathleen about the inverted yield curve many years ago when we had that subject before the great financial crisis. -- we have anow large infusion of worldwide liquidity. all the g7 central banks have their foot to the pedal. all of them have a 2% inflation
target more or less and all of them have not been able to hit it. what that says is they are going to keep doing more and more and more. once they hit the 2% inflation target and they begin to restrict liquidity, this is an entirely different game. but that is then and not now. host 2: bank stocks is one of the areas where you think things look good. jp morgan is outshining its peers on this chart. jp morgan is in yellow. wells fargo in turquoise. how far do you think this is going to go? we have enlarged that position and we are now overweight the sector. we did that immediately after the fed surprised on a friday
afternoon after 4:00 with lifting the rules or using the rules is what i should say on dividends and share buybacks. if you look at the performance last year, one of the performers that was lagging was share buyback in dividends. growth andt drive tech was the driver. this release of the banks which step of is the first gradual fed release of the banks means they are going to be able to be more aggressive, have higher earnings and have share back -- and have share buybacks and dividends. ht upok the weig immediately on the news. we are very positive on the banks. david, we are looking
toward the next element of political risk, the georgian senate runoff. the campaigning is taking place. kamala harris is there campaigning. risk thatpolitical markets should be watching more closely? david: i think markets should watch the risk closely because one never knows in politics what will happen. this is remarkable in the united states. not only the runoff in georgia which could decide the senate, but then, on january 6 when the house and senate will go through the business of seeding electors, we have not had an electoral college challenge of this time since -- of this type since shortly after the civil war when reuther part b hayes president in 1866.
almost a century and a half ago. saying, i believe, are -- the house is set and the senate will decide that we can go forward. i don't believe any of this disturbance that could happen is being priced into markets but there is a risk there and we will know very quickly how big a risk it is. the bazaar but savior of president -- the bizarre behavior of president trump calling the secretary of state of georgia asking him to reverse the votes -- i cannot remember anything like that in my lifetime. uncertainty, absolutely, yes. how to price it? i haven't a clue. we will have more on that extraordinary reporting. always a pleasure and great
start the new year with euro. let's get you over to karina mitchell in new york with the first word headlines. >> the top u.s. virus experts vaccine rollout is ticking up and could be on track at the end of the month. anthony fauci making warnings. new cases are prompting demands for a new national lockdown in the u.k. >> the virus is clearly out of control. and the prime minister hinting that there could be further restrictions -- that delay as a source of so many problems. so i say, bring national restrictions within the next 24 hours. that would be the first step. , they are imposing mandatory mask wearing starting monday amid new clusters.
everyone must wear masks when shopping come on public transport or at entertainment venues and places of worship. the japanese prime minister will layout plans to contain the virus although he is expected to refrain from declaring a state of emergency in tokyo. china says it is confident the economic recovery will continue this year through improved supply side regulations, advancement in tech and industrial sectors. state media says the national bureau of statistics says they will improve regional development to offset weakness in the global, nate. notes continual challenges from the pandemic. oil majors are thought to be in line for delisting. china mobile, china telecom and others.
china mobile, china telecom and china unicorns are thought to be delisted in the coming days. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. host 2: still ahead, bitcoin surging into the new year reaching 34 thousand dollars in weekend trade. ofassess the sustainability the rally coming up next. and opec plus warning -- the recovery. risks as the downside the cartel prepares
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in london trading over the weekend. there is already at least one prediction of bitcoin soaring to $50,000 this year. >> at least one and some people think they can go higher than that. bitcoin is entering the new year in full boom mode. youe look at the bloomberg, can see bitcoin now, the white line on the right showing the rise since 2018 has blown away the prior rallies. the latest jump comes on the jump in bitcoins huge december where it surpassed the $20,000 milestone and registered to jump about 50% in that month alone. what many were calling a santa rally. the cofounder of next so in london, a company that bills
itself as the biggest bitcoin lender -- he is the one predicting bitcoin could well be on the road to $50,000 this year, probably, and this is his prediction come in the first quarter of 2021. it has increasingly been embraced by many institutional investors. it is on the radar of many banks. what many realized in late was that bitcoin has moved out of the arena of geeks ands and tech it is starting to get real attraction and tension. late last month, the first nfl football player here in the u.s. it written into his contract that he would collect half of his pay in bitcoin. scott minor was here on bloomberg television that famously said that bitcoin could go over $400,000. what are the other issues for
digital currency in 20 21 that we need to be aware of before diving in? a big issue.y is if you look at where it has come from to where it is now, there has been glitches along the way. the santa claus rally is when we talked about a lot what it tripped in november. 14% anded as much as had major declines before that. volatility is a major issue. that henerd did say thinks bitcoin could be at $400,000. it just shows you there is an increasing embracing of bitcoin by many institutional investors. however, it remains a thinly traded asset and many are concerned whether it can continue the very bullish run we have seen in the past few months
and that is clearly going to be a big question for 2021. haidi: back to you. .hat is su keenan, bac you can read more about bitcoin of daybreak.ition it is also available on mobile. coming up on the show come after the telcos, china's oil giants may be next in line for delist ing. we will have all of the details. this is bloomberg. ♪
tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. is this inevitable? way and that that is the analysis of our in-house team. i will give you some background. in november, the trump administration signed off on an executive order that band u.s. investments in companies linked to the chinese military or the chinese security apparatus which ting those nyse delis chinese telecom companies including china mobile, china china unicorns. nysewere delisted from the because of that executive order. of bloombergw intelligence that the energy players could be next. the biggest offshore oil and gas producer is on the list.
-- you also the have petrochina and sinopec as well facing a delisitng. delisting. china has said they will do everything in their power to support and protect the rights of chinese companies. the focus should dow shift is some of these energy giants in china. closer to theet and not duration there any signs that we could see a falling in -- a thawing in china-u.s. relations? tom: the door is open. we heard that from the foreign minister in a piece published on his website. he said -- we are ready to sit down and talk and start
constructive dialogue. we want good relations with the united states. he pointed to a potential new window of hope in relations between the sides. he also said that the two sides in relationship had faced unprecedented difficulties for what he said, and he blamed the u.s.'s completely wrong policies. of course, there is a lot of work to do but there is a sense that officials are trying to keep the door open to get to some point where possibly you could get something of a reset in relations. the want to keep the door open. mackenzie. let's get a quick check on the headlines. an asian supplier has suspended a president after he was arrested in southern china. no details were offered.
one report says he was taken away by police last wednesday over alleged fraud. taiwanese authorities say he has since been released. his company is merging with another company. commented.pany has tesla delivered a record number of cars worldwide in the fourth quarter.fourth it's applied more than 180,000 almost 500,000 units for the year. byal numbers could vary 0.5% or more. off and on talks. investorswill see look at the creation of a new company which could be the world's fourth-largest carmaker.
the box office taking hit a record. amid signs that the movie market is bouncing back. recordingt since began. redl films come a little flower and a warm hug led the way. ask office revenue dropped sharply last year but still topped u.s. takings. coming up next, more than 12 million shots have been administered globally. professor julie leask joins us next. we are looking at the first trading session of the year here in sydney. continue this.to seeing some improved numbers when it comes to the situation here in new south
♪ >> 2020 is an extraordinary year. in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, we put people and their lives first. we wrote the story of tackling the pandemic with concerted -- efforts. >> we told people how to live their lives, how long to wash their hands, how many households can beat together in a year in which we lost too many loved ones before their time. >> there's never been a single
thing america has been unable to overcome, no matter how drastic it has been. hashe coronavirus pandemic been and continues to be a political, social and economic challenge of the century. >> we can see that illuminated sign that marks the end of the journey, and even more important, we can see with growing clarity exactly how we will get there. and that is what gives me such confidence about 2021. global leaders addressing the fight against the pandemic on new year's eve addresses. 12 man doses of a covid-19 vaccine have been delivered across 30 countries so far. vaccine rollout picking up speed after a slow stop. dr. anthony fauci he said it could be fully on track in a week or so. in's talk to an expert
public attitudes on vaccines at the university of sydney. great to have you with us. this is really topical because usually you see the vaccine hesitancy or concerns more at the fringes of the debate. here you see it much more in the mainstream. are the concerns you hear across daily conversation valid, does it come down to a lack of understanding about the process that has been gone through to arrive at the vaccine? naturalhere is a resistance around new vaccines, this is not new. any vaccine program can be greeted with high levels -- higher levels of hesitancy then establish vaccine programs. it takes time. you have the natural caution and hesitancy around something new. people are reporting, some people are reporting concern that because this vaccine has
been developed in such record that they might have taken shortcuts on safety. that is not the case, the vaccine has been tested for safety the same way any other new vaccine would be, and it is looking very promising. we have these vaccines that have gone through stage three trials. has a we know every drug risk of adverse events. do you think it is useful or more harmful that every single allergic reaction becomes a headline? is that creating more fear in the general population? julie: it is going to happen. there is so much attention on this vaccine because of the promise it rings to us. -- it brings to us. it is inevitable but i think equally journalists and newspaper editors need to be careful about the kinds of headlines they write. because it is quite normal for
vaccines to bring -- occasionally they do bring allergic reactions to different components in the vaccine. it is rare but it happens. if you're going to be vaccinating so many people at one time, you are no doubt going to see people have rare anaphylactic, allergic reactions to the vaccine. need to not make too much of this. it is normal. they have all of the facilities around them when they give the vaccine to treat anaphylaxis. that's why they're asking people to be monitored for potential reactions. we have seenhleen: pretty clearly, among the least trusted vaccines are those made in china and russia. lack of transparency in the past, some goods produced by china were revealed to have problems.
abouto you tell people the country of origin -- doesn't it make a difference? difference tos a perception. whether it makes a difference to science is another question. scientists inhe china and russia are perfectly capable of producing successful vaccines. there are top class scientists in those countries as well and those countries will be motivated to produce effective, save vaccines for their people and beyond. you know, it is important we distinguish between the quality of the science and the politics thathe issues of mistrust circulate around that science. issue that has been problematic for people and i think legitimately so, and that is they have gone ahead without
undertaking phase three trials. they've done phase i and phase ii trials and they looks promising, but phase three trials are in much larger groups of people, tens of thousands of people, and they have put the vaccines into the population before there's trials have occurred. to be sure that the vaccines are safe enough and effective enough. there is a mix here of both politics, legitimate issues around getting the science firmly on board, and also some perceptions that may be unreasonable given both countries have very good scientists. kathleen: good scientists around the world, i think it's a question more how people view my controls. i want to show you a chart showing the rapid rate of infections moving from asia to italy and now spain. showsis a yellow bar that spain has shot higher, the u.k. has shot higher. do you see cultural differences
in acceptance of vaccines that we need to be aware of? julie: there are indeed cultural differences. the main factor is trust in government. itself, theculture geopolitical history of the country will have a strong bearing on how people trust government and the assurances that the vaccine is safe and effective. for example, if you look at studies that have measured acceptance or potential acceptance of the covid-19 vaccine across countries, you see countries in eastern bloc --ntries -- russia, poland have certainly had lower levels of intention to have the covid-19 vaccine, and what you see is a pattern of countries which struggle to trust their government and also i think with russia, the fact that the
vaccine has been given before the phase three trials have been completed. example, there is a lot of mistrust in government, a lot of complex politics that interweaves into trust in vaccines. this is absolutely an issue and past performance of governments will affect the way people trust their health programs as well. that trustdoes element play out when it comes to the issue of vaccine diplomacy? we've seen china really sort of out of the gates early with their vaccine, but we've also seen that because of covid and the inability to travel, that australia has made more gains across the pacific. is that something we are likely to see as a theme heighten? will we see a provision with free vaccines? julie: what you see in australia is our government committing
$523 million to the vaccine program, and there is an intent to support the south pacific, the pacific island nations in that package as well. oft is both an issue diplomacy, of ensuring of straley a has a place -- ensuring australia has a place in the region. but it's also about our obligation to our neighbors, to help support these countries that would alone struggle with a very complex vaccine program and may struggle with being able to purchase sufficient vaccine for all of their people. you have to remember some of these countries have very small populations, so you would not need to have a lot of the vaccine to vaccinate all of the eligible people in that country and help the country restore its economic activity again. kathleen: thank you so much for
sharing your insight. plenty more ahead on vaccines. a chairman tells us what to expect after his company won emergency approval in india for its coronavirus vaccine. let's turn to karina mitchell for the first word headlines. karina: we will hop over to india to start, the trade deficit jumped last month by 28% compared to a year ago as imports surged. the shortfall widened to almost $15 billion as inbound shipments rose 7% and exports flatlined. from therts ballooned summer 2019, while petroleum saw the biggest decline. pharmaceutical saw the biggest rise in export value. economy forecast to deteriorate further this year. the government is battling the virus fallout. nearly half respondents predict this year will be worse than last, only 15% seeing any
improvement. bangkok closed essential businesses -- close all but essential businesses and other areas are expected to follow suit. a lifelinehave won from italy, with a six month post-brexit period where they can continue to do business. rome says this applies to financial firms before the -- who apply before the end of last year. the u.k. in the trade market clinched a deal before christmas but it does not account for 80% of the u.k. economy. nuclear told the un agency it plans to start enriching uranium above levels in the nuclear deal. it is one year since the u.s. assassination of top general solemani, which is strained iran-u.s. relations. they have threatened to end u.s. inspections if theun doesn't --
the un doesn't offer relief. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. haidi: next, president trump is recorded asking a georgia official to find him enough votes to overturn joe biden's state win. we have the details and the audio recording, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ trump has beend recorded telling george's top election official to find enough votes to overturn his loss in the state to joe biden. the 62 minute long recording obtained by bloomberg has the u.s. president demanding georgia secretary of state finds thousands of ballots to alter the outcome. -- il i want to do is this 11,780 votes,ind which is one more than we have, because we won the state. kathleen: how debiting managing editor in washington joins us now. what has been the reaction to this audio recording? ros: the reaction has been swift, and i would imagine very much along partisan lines, but even some republicans are wondering what president trump
was trying to do their in t king -- do there and alking to the georgia secretary of state. it is a 62 minute phone call and trump and his chief of staff seemed to threaten the georgia official to change the results of the election, or find these votes. it is really extraordinary. democrats came out quite quickly suggesting that trump should be impeached. maybe there is not enough time to do it, it is an extraordinary phone call. in the last few weeks of president trump's term. we saw the reelection of nancy pelosi as house speaker. what we make of that handful of defections? ros: yes. nancy pelosi, the only woman speaker ever in the u.s., barely
squeaked in today. she voted for herself and needed to vote for herself. we come to this speaker election knowing that progressives and moderates want a new leadership on the democratic side, and some are quite upset that democrats lost seats in the election in november, and believe that pelosi needs to cede the gavel to a new generation, but nobody has emerged who would be that person. that sounds like she has a tough time ahead of her over the next year or two years. just keeping the different sides of her caucus together, the progressives and the moderates, they are quite at loggerheads and there was a bit of recrimination after the election. not an easy time for nancy pelosi. hasshe got through and been the main democratic soil to president trump last few years. it will be different with biden.
kathleen: and the question of the balance of power in washington, whether or not senates -- whether or not republicans retain the senate. the georgia runoff. muchthere has not been pulling in georgia and weather has been has shown the race theory close. democrats had the edge in the ifly voting, but typically democrats vote early, republicans vote on the day of the election. i think it is too close to call. it remains to be seen how this bombshell of president trump pressuring georgia state election officials might play out, if it could suppress turnout on tuesday or even fire up turnout from either side. it is possible. the georgia general election was and just theer,
stakes could not be higher. ont a very interesting night tuesday. haidi: we are actually hearing more vocal criticism from the republican camp, on some of the efforts over the weekend to flout the certification of donald trump loss. does this seem like any kind of a viable threat to the inauguration going ahead? ros: i think the bottom line is this will not overturn the election, but if it has done anything, it has split the republican party in two, and this was something that speaker mitch mcconnell had been warning about. he had said it was controversial and could turn off a lot of moderate republican voters.
advised, butll many fans of donald trump will be supportive of this, and perhaps they are pressuring their senators to do so. a lot of republicans said today this is not a good idea, the house, and there's been more pushback against this idea. it willing nowhere, but make wednesday's joint session of congress very contentious and very bitter, to the extent that spokeent elect joe biden that bipartisan could return to washington, i think there is a long way to go. haidi: ross presley in sney inton -- ros kra washington. sophie is in hong kong taking a look at the markets. there could be a pricing deal for the astrazeneca vaccine in
deal -- in days. what do we have on the alternative? tom: we want to flag a report -- sophie: we want to flag a report from india regulators for astrazeneca vaccine and another vaccine. priceld stir up competition, if the other vaccine prices at one u.s. dollar per dose. it would cost india $2.6 billion to vaccinate the entire population. producer ofkons the the astrazeneca vaccine might need to offer a bigger discount to secure contracts from the indian government. focus, theil and opec meeting coming up. what is up with crude? after what he deemed a
chaotic 20 for oil, john said this year will be driven by virus and vaccine considerations, with opec plus facing tenacious obstacles. he does not expect amanda will recover -- demand will recover to 2019 levels. we will see opec-plus wanting to supportntum for wti asia. he is predicting $38 per barrel for print. -- for brent. kathleen: thank you. next, we will keep this going. more on the outlook for oil in the first half of 2021. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ opec-plus is warning of threats to the oil market from the resurgent pandemic, a day before the group and allies will meet to consider another increase in production. for more, let's get our editor. thee was a meeting ahead of key meeting later on monday. we heard from the secretary-general essentially saying there are a lot of downside risks. >> that's right. great to be with you.
oil investors will be watching tomorrow's meeting very closely to see whether the group will decide to increase production once again. secretary-general came out today and did warn of the risks to the oil market from the pandemic. he said the outlook for 2021 is very mixed. at this point, we are waiting to hear more details around the groups future output policy and whether or not they will release more oil into the market february -- market in february. saudi officials had mentioned earlier the fragility of the oil recovery. the group will definitely be keeping that in mind when they meet tomorrow, because if you think about it, brent prices have recovered, it is healthy, $50 per barrel levels, but if demand remains weak, there will be a lot of concern. kathleen: what are the stances of key producers like saudi arabia and pressure -- and pressure when it comes with moving forward on a supply increase?
jessica: russia has been very clear, they believe the group should add another 500,000 barrels capacity to the market in february on top of the supply increase demand for this month. said prices in the $45-50 five dollar range are and warrant a production increase, but on the other hand, saudi arabia not as forthright with its view quite yet. there is a lot up in the air for them and they see more cautious. kathleen: jessica summers, thank you. more on the outlook for oil, ahead. ceo -- a founder and ceo joins us later. now, a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. chosen a chinese energy company for a multibillion-dollar oil supply deal as baghdad seeks to bolster
its economy. there is no official identification of the company, but we have discovered it concerns general oil. iraqi state news says two chinese and two european comedies were in the running and china won. a resource company has renewed an offer after an all cash bid of $10 billion was rejected. --'s pursuit has a potential a large stock components. at 11 poundssed 33. dow jones says the bid comes with backing from the top mgm's shareholder. coming up in the next hour, we discussed the outlook for the global economy with commonwealth bank. a chief economist expects the u.s. and china to lead a solid recovery. we will see what he expects --