tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 14, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST
>> the course of the virus, the pandemic, and the vaccines will determine the course of the future economy. >> the economy has shown resilience to the third wave. >> suddenly wall street has woken to this idea of dashing dominant in 21. >> we are likely to see some --, may be a pullback in markets. >> kills confidence. but volatility is when you can make a buck. >> we had a recovery in 2021, that's a failure. we need a boom. >> this is bloomberg surveillance tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and francine. tom: john has gone missing, we
will continue -- last -- we have much more going on in the markets. lisa, not too trillion, but topping it out there's $2.2 trillion to look forward to two a biden administration. lisa: he's announcing a plan later today. that's the expectation. i find most interesting that the republicans that will sign on and numbers that will not -- that have not been seen for a long time. this is the highlight of the entire turmoil in washington, d.c.. -- does it bring congress together? tom: we saw yesterday with democrats united by republicans shifting as well, moving from five to 10 republicans voting to the impeachment of their president. let's do a data check, futures up 82. this will stick from 23 to
22.19. can't wait to get to michael to talk about the pacific rim. but we see the yen at 104. we are watching the curve for dominance per the yield space, i would suggest 1.13 on the 10 year is important. lisa: i love jim agreed coming out -- jim agreed -- jim reed of deutsche bank coming out saying that there will be a discussion of the fed stepping away with those officials coming in saying not going to happen. what i'm watching, jobless claims, we are expecting to see a deterioration in the labor market as the coronavirus continues to take hold. we will not be remiss and talking about the fact that 4400 americans died on tuesday, another record day of deaths. almost a 400,000 casualties in
the united states from covid taking a toll personally from a health perspective and a market perspective. jay powell is set to speak at 12:00, we expect him to put a kibosh on taper talk. this will be the ongoing scene, dampening any kind of concern in markets as the fed backs away. at 7:15, joe biden is expected to introduce the new stimulus plan. these are huge numbers and people expecting republican congress members to sign on. to give you a sense, no gop members signed on to bill clinton's initial plan when he came in the office. only three when barack obama came into office. this would be a historic departure to get bipartisanship. tom: oil, i should point out 55 .74 holding on.
right now, let's get to the conversation of the moment was somebody who writes an eclectic note in the capital. michael purves writes a sharply note about the pacific rim and nailed the dynamics of the blended currency index. we get an update this morning. on the pacific rim, is this enough of a showing to say a burgeoning global economy? michael: i think it's one factor to be looking at. there's no question that emerging asia is a big driver of global growth. when you look across emerging asia you have a good and on a relative basis very good covid platform with which to accelerate from. obviously covid continues to haunt every economy every place
in some way. they had a better start. if you look at the index for china and other emerging economies in asia, this is really outperforming. the gdp acceleration there has been the strongest pre-one thing i have been focused on from a trading point of view is whether we are going to start seeing a real accelerated rotation into emerging equities. almost every equity index has been rallying substantially. right now if you pull up a long-term chart, this is a very china, korea, taiwan waited. this is on the cusp of making lifetime highs. this always gets my attention. lisa: you see the theme of reemerging em.
they reemerged. did they do it again through export? is this formula the same as previous? or is it different? michael: when you talk about em, it's always a moving target in terms of what's really happening. certainly you have this longer-term transferral from an export in china to more of a domestic economy. and you have this tech theme throughout asia, outside of silicon valley, that's the other place you could really find those companies. they are obviously different business models and different avenues. there's a lot to be said. i think one other point that i like from an investment and trading point of view is that well -- while the valuation -- i'm coming back to the em. those are high.
about 15 times bloomberg consensus test -- estimate. but in terms of global emerging market indices, this is at a very low level. every equity index is at a record high level evaluations but the relative valuation is there. i think that this rotation theme , where we see the cap tech in the u.s., this will continue but i think we are poised to accelerate and transition from that type of rotation to more than emerging market. lisa: i will argue that a lot of people have come on and said just that. a great call and came out about how this is supported by the economic recovery but also by the policies and monetary authorities. it's a big backdrop to the rush to emerging markets which has been the low yields in the
united states. looking at 10 year yields, 1.1%, a $2 trillion stimulus package, has up and priced in? michael: i think largely it has been. biden came out with a $3.7 trillion plan on his website. i know sharing your discussion with tom, before i got engaged, it's a reminder that there's always -- political risk is a persistent theme in 2021. but one of the facets come i think you have to take into consideration that you're talking about the dollar end race, the moves that we have seen towards the runoff in the 10 year treasury yield is almost basis point per basis point moving with the rise in the money markets.
in other words, there's no risk being built into the 10 year treasury yields. it's really about the markets pricing it up one more hike or so down the road. that's different than a big new fear premium because of spending. that could change. but right now what it says is that an orderly selloff is a risk. and i would also see that dollar weakening. lisa: this is an important point, basically the fed has more influence than the fiscal policy or fundamental economy over the bond market which sets the rates and valuations yesterday bob michele said the fed is whether deliberately or not, don't -- enabling modern monetary theory, suppressing the cost of borrowing to the united
states in order to do so as much as possible. do you see political risk as being something significant for markets beyond what is currently expected? >> i think the specter of political risk has been growing. but i think it's pretty remote. particularly with biden coming in as president next week. with this solving for normality, i think it's pretty remote. that being said, you do see the trend. yellen is in treasury, lagarde coming into the ecb. nudging the germans into fiscal policy. you are seeing a broader integration at some level of fiscal and monetary policy which raises all sorts of questions. but arguably it's inevitable given that these are extremely low and the fiscal spending
seems to only be more obvious and relevant given the broader backdrop. tom: thank you. i'm looking at this exceptionally elegy -- elegant chart. it's well behaved and has every sense of driving a stronger yuan, which is clearly the signal of that pacific rim. lisa: and interesting in that bloomberg opinion column that came out this morning talking about how even though the u.n. -- the yuan seems a there is more room for strengthening before it impacts the economy. one of the big questions is when the pboc will get involved in trying to suppress that valuation. it's an interesting factor. tom: we are halfway through 2021.
or at least it feels that way. we are going to continue, thank you for the emails saying thank you for not doing washington 24/7. but we still focus on the nation's capital. news overnight as well. a briefing coming up. and coming up later, michael schumacher from wells fargo security head of strategy is reassessing $2.2 trillion waves. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: it's up to the senate, the house put president trump in the history books, impeaching him on a single charge of insurrection. this is the first time any president has been impeached twice. the resolution was supported by democrats and 10 republican. it now goes to the senate which has refused a request to bring senators back and start the
trial before next week's inauguration. meanwhile president trump called on americans to unite and avoid further biden -- violence. the video was released one week after capital. the president condemned the violence and it says that it goes against everything is movement stand for. he does not -- did not mention the vote. lawmakers have been told that coronavirus relief plans will be in the $2 trillion range. biden unveils that proposal today which includes direct payments to american families and state and local funding. in china, a payday record high in december, exports rose more than 80% from a year earlier. electronic goods surged in 2020, and the trade is at 20 7% higher. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
i am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design
that we all love. >> the 117th congress must understand that we have a mandate to legislate in defense of black lives through the first step is to root out white supremacy, starting with impeaching the white supremacist in chief. >> a vote fan the flames of partisan division. >> we took an oath to defend the constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic. last week there was a domestic threat at the door the capital. we did nothing to stop it. that's why with a heavy heart and clear resolve i will vote yes on these articles of impeachment. tom: what you see, and this is important, mr. newhouse of the fourth district of washington state, a district that is
significantly a trump district, going against mr. trump last night. one of 10 republicans voting in the drama of the moment. we pick up the pieces with kevin cirilli our chief washington correspondent. speaker pelosi's letter to the house was stunning last night, the five and $10,000 fines as you come in and ignore the metal detectors and give lip to the capitol police. would you explain the do not tread on me contingent within the republican party that resides in the capital? kevin: it's gonna be exposed in an investigation. that's really the message behind speaker pelosi's letter. there's a lot of investigative work that the new congress is going to have to look into. i keep going back to this point, whether or not the senate trial, which is now all but likely once
president elect biden is sworn into office, this is going to see a lot of investigative work to be done, not just at congress but at the state level. individuals are really going to face legal exposure from states for pedaling in conspiracy theories. tom: kevin will be with us, the note is very informative. it talks about the past and future pardons and how it could move senate republican votes from 10 to 17 votes. are the two linked? kevin: yes. i think congressman newhouse is in that lane of conservatism and it will be remarkable to see. congressman newhouse is a republican that is building a coalition of lawmakers from western demographics and uniting them around much more so agricultural issues and
environmental issues like forest fires. much more so than the more old-school conservatism alliances. i bring that up because there's an opportunity for a new type of republican to emerge in that region. that could really provide a new element to the republican party. i think you will see the birth of that during the senate impeachment trial, regardless of the outcome of that trial. lisa: and joe biden is set to announce his list later today -- announces plan for covid stimulus treated he's hoping republicans will join democrats to get this past. but if you look at this, the vast majority of voting republicans still back president trump and think that he should not resign or be impeached. what's the real chance right now of true bipartisanship given the rank-and-file and where they are in sentiment? kevin: it ultimately comes down
to how the country moves forward. historically speaking, and i alluded to this yesterday, the precedent towards pardoning the former president nixon was heavily criticized. that's the only historical parallel we can draw with a path forward towards ushering in a new era of clinical columnists and stability -- calmness and stability. candidly it will take time. the recess that the senate is in now, leader mcconnell has forecasted that he believes the best path forward is to take a breath and to not rush a process. that's his position. democrats have suggested that the better path forward is to move more quickly through. i have to say, to have so many prominent republicans not just in elected office, to be calling on the president to resign his
remarkable. i think if you're playing this forward in terms of a narrative, vice president mike pence will eventually write a book or give an interview. there's more coming. lisa: it's hard to overstate how historic this moment is. i was struck by the pictures of the capitol building being used as barracks binational guard members. this is the first time they've been used as barracks since the civil war. we have heard about threats to the washington, d.c. region as inauguration gets closer. how serious is the threat of some overwhelming violence on that day? kevin: two things. i have interview lawmakers who have said they are in close contact with fbi officials in order to protect the capital as well as state capitals around the country. but to get to your other question, i cannot stress this enough. capitol hill is a campus.
it's equivalent to all of the ecosystems, small businesses around the new york stock exchange. i say this because the entire political industry is in a moment where they are saying is this the type of office we want? how do we move beyond the images of the capitol building being used as barracks? how do we heal and move forward. is this really the type of political democracy we want to see reflected back and want to be a part of reflecting back to the country. that's a self reflection that steep. it's not a soapbox. it's very real. when i speak to republican staffers, lobbyists, republicans who have spent decades in washington he see -- washington, d.c. and democrats in every parallel, that is where their headspace is that. how does this moment devolve so that -- moment of all so this --
evolve so this does not become the norm. tom: it will be interesting to see how this plays out. kevin cirilli, perhaps a quieter wednesday than what we have observed. on bloomberg radio, there is a suggest that there is preparation for president-elect biden's speech on stimulus. the working number is $2 trillion at the high end. greg is joining us in the next hour. lisa, your thoughts as we look at those shocking images of the nation's capital? lisa: it's a historic moment and a gut check for the republican party, considering the support of president trump in a number of different polls saying his approval rating has gone down. but how do we move forward? a lot of people are looking at 2021 saying we want our money back. tom: i would look at enforcement and the judicial system to show their card in the coming days.
last i saw that number potentially arrested will be 170. interest rates are rising as well. michael schumacher joins us from wells fargo. futures are up five. on (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates.
tom: good morning. on radio and television, good good morning. we affirm we need a stock check. i need 97, window to 103. [laughter] >> let's start with johnson & johnson. development for vaccine still going on. encouraging safety studies. j&j moving higher. alibaba in the news. it could move today. according to those familiar, the u.s. won't ban americans from
investing. that could be good or not good. a long way from when nordstrom had the single store. holiday sales down 22%. cross margin down 500 basis points. tom: i don't mean to make light of it. is it right jonathan ferro is still missing? [laughter] >> i will not touch that one. lisa: i will touch that. there is the theory from those familiar, that jack ma is trying to keep a political, low-profile. china would not torpedo their tech star. jermaine: let's pivot. [laughter] ark on your terminal. that is kathy woods empire.
she is moving into space. i didn't put up the other movers. i knew that would enrage you. there is your affirmation, tom. tom: thank you. jermaine: intraday high. lisa: ok. jermaine: get your broker on the phone. lisa: fascinating. one of the biggest stories. ipo doubles in value in the first day. some bankers go, what happened? tom: full disclosure, romaine. we show all our conflicts in the afternoon. [laughter] romain: that is good for you. you should be all over that. tom: what is this gorgeous chart?
romain: this is talking about the outperformance of ipo's. one day pops has created this outperformance versus broader market. obviously, that firm off the charts. people are talking. it is not just right or wrong. it is the idea of availability of shares. companies coming to the table with 10%, maybe less. a lot of talk, if you can get insiders to get chairs out earlier, get rid of lockup periods, you might have more equilibrium on how they perform on the first day of trading. tom: what is the tone of the south side? i saw blackrock out with earnings. what is the mood you see in your voracious reading? romain: everyone thinks this will be earnings rebound and back to double digit growth rates, pre-covid.
expect margin expansion. tom: i am looking for gluten-free. romain: you are done in 30 minutes. [laughter] tom: save us. lisa: you will ipo your triple levered fund through a stack. [laughter] talk about frosting. a lot of this has been spurred by the ultra low interest rates, the idea the fed has her back no matter what, edified over the past seven days with official saying, maybe we will think about tapering. shut down smack down then some by other officials saying no way not a chance. mike schumacher taking a look at the ebbs and flows of bonds. 1.1% on the 10 year. do you think the bond bulls have gotten ahead of themselves in the wake of naysaying officials? do you think yields could rise further? michael: we do.
fed commentary is way too soon. the fed learned the lesson in '13. that was bad. we would focus on if jay powell or richard clarida the says tapering this year seems a good idea, then the markets should be concerned. we are not worried. yields go up. lisa: because the fed will allow them to or because inflation will start to pick up more than expected? michael: more the fed. inflation rises course of the year but not quickly. next two months, fairly subdued. we saw numbers on cpi yesterday. nothing amazing. fairly low inflation path until may-june makes sense. near-term, how much is the fed
going to allow yields up? so far, fairly tolerant. that continues. yields don't go crazy. huge number would be 150 midyear. tom: do you see in the monetary literature, any discussion of the appropriate fiscal statistics? with the changing of the guard, $2 trillion, who knows where that number will be? is there a number within economic site guys to too much -- economic zeitgeist too much? michael: not really. economic models are linked to past data. how much do we have on pandemics? not a heck of a lot. a century ago? does not give you comfort. there is no number you can point to. tom: what is your best bet? so much theory, the
cosmopolitan, political economics now of washington. what is your delegated best bet at wells fargo? michael: we are big fans of the tom keene spec -- [laughter] -- but when you get past that, yields tick up. lisa: he is muttering to himself. carry-on. [laughter] michael: cheesy nonetheless, yields go up by 40 basis points, maybe 30 more reasonably at the outside in the next five months. that seems like a good play. lisa: meantime, big driver yields rising was a weakening dollar. cooling off a little. people closing out. morgan stanley away completely near-term from the weaker dollar call. do you see it strengthening from here as people look at the situation in europe and see the
pandemic and how bad it is and say, maybe the u.s. is not so bad? michael: we see strengthening. good point. longer-term, probably not great. near-term, how about a bear market rally? these things happen. dollar has been down dramatically last seven months. europe, correlative from covid perspective. u.s. yields up, yield spreads going up too. yield advantage for u.s. over germany, france, japan, has increased dramatically over the last months, which should give the dollar a near-term boost. lisa: what is the compass? mark mccormick is tracking the vaccination schedules in different nations to determine which countries find a correlation or some sort of association between strength of economy/currency and vaccinations. what are you tracking to determine a fall or rise?
michael: not so much vaccination progress, although that is a big component. day-to-day, it is difficult to measure. israel is out in front. everyone else's not that well. we focus on concretely, what do central banks tell us? market reaction in interest-rate? bond market yields rising? that has been the big driver over the last few weeks. tom: the dynamics of the emerging markets, we talked to michael purves about the pacific rim. wells fargo with an affinity to watch. is there much more to go? michael: perhaps more. it is a function of how accommodative are the big central banks? we talk about it all the time. activity in the background driven by u.s. dollar trade, for
the most part. if the fed stays with a lax policy, that is a good sign. lisa: mike schumacher, thank you. michael: thank you. lisa: tom, we have one hour, 50 minutes until the initial jobless claims report from the u.s. one thing we don't stress enough is the ongoing bifurcation in the labor market. fed said yesterday the lowest can tile of u.s. earners, the unemployment is more than 20%. that compares with less than 5% for the top, talking this cap widening. you wonder about the longer-term structural consequences. tom: a quintile is a fifth, it is a hunk of the public. so glad you brought it up. the week has been nuts. i didn't realize it was
thursday. you bring up claims. another statistic, whatever, i don't have it in front of me but normal is 220,000 and we are miles from it. lisa: it is 700,000. tom: excuse me. [laughter] would you like to go to fewer digits? lisa: i am trying to work for my vacation. tom: lisa is killing it. take it 787,000 436. you are worse than jonathan. [laughter] lisa: is that a compliment? [laughter] i will take it. tom: we have been football free this week. lisa: i know. we have to change that. [laughter] it is fair. michael mckee will say it doesn't matter. you could have come back at me. there is a question of the significance. nonetheless, very big. that is a concern. tom: what i see which is so important is what i see on the streets. every street of america is
different. there is huge stress. lisa: yeah. it is a tough time. deutsche bank talking earnings, out tomorrow. perhaps, talking football, maybe. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president trump has become the first president ever to be impeached twice. the resolution approved by all democrats in the house and 10 republicans. the president accused of one count of incitement of insurrection for last week's riot at the capital. the next move is up to the republican-controlled senate, already rejecting requests to bring senators back early. mitch mcconnell says he has not made a final decision whether to vote to impeach the president. he sent a note to colleagues that he had agreed to vote in favor of impeachment. he intends to listen to the legal arguments before he
decides. national guard at positions at the u.s. capitol, 20,000 personnel summoned turning the capital and its campus into an armed camp. authorities say there is a major security threat around the inauguration. they are trying to prevent a repeat of the riots at the capital. xi jinping calling on starbucks to help improve relations with the u.s. in a letter to the chairman, he hoped starbucks would take active efforts to promote trade cooperation and bilateral relations. he previously said china is a competitor rather than an enemy. goldman sachs one step closer to offering checking accounts for main street. the consumer arm will work with digital payments startups on the project. they plan to use technology to issue debit cards into mobile wallets.
first quarter. but be careful. there is a lot of risk priced in. tom: andrew ball and the message is, the careful out there. look for that on bloomberg digital. if you are part of global wall street, particularly american wall street, there is no question, this is the conversation of the day. the goal in the game is to win the trophy. the trophy is the institutional investor award. there are permutations. if you are lucky, you win twice. patrick, that is rare. matthew o'connor spent a decade winning trophies at ii with ubs and onto a storied career at deutsche bank. we are thrilled he could join on the big banks. matthew, the money question as banks come out of the bottom and
regress back to a mean or can there be a golden age where they go through it and onto prosperity? matthew: thanks. we are bullish on banks. same reasons since we upgraded group in early september. pretty simple story. they have lagged the market quite a bit, even with the run since the crisis. macro conditions improve this year, driving interest rates and loans higher. concerns about long-term earnings power being significantly impaired, overblown. put that together. we still see room. tom: charles peabody, wonderful analyst in your area has been brilliant on the use of cash by the banks. do you start january of this year, understanding the banks have so much cash they will use it to get to shareholders?
matthew: good news from the fed in december allowing banks to start buybacks this quarter. measured pace, 1% outstanding, capacity for most. moving in the right direction. banks have a lot of capital, generate a lot. we expect buybacks to accelerate this year. lisa: jp morgan first quarter earnings tomorrow, followed by citigroup and wells fargo, all slightly different stores. jp morgan shares up 40% since the beginning of november. what are investors looking for to go further from here? what are the key metrics? matthew: everyone knows capital market revenues like trading, investment banking will be strong in q2 and the outlook seems positive. the key is net interest income. even for the diversified banks,
it is still over half total revenue, driven by interest rates on loans and the outlook for that is really i think what investors are looking for to have gains in the group. net interest income is bottoming this quarter. we hope banks will be cautiously optimistic throughout '21. lisa: can banks rally if yields don't rise? matthew: it is possible you get a pause in the near term. i am in the camp, the longer and will move higher as macro conditions improve. we have been assuming the 10 year average, 1.25 and 150 in the back half this year. that is high enough to support further gains. tom: when we look at banks, we talk about consolidation, business plan, wealth management activity yesterday with frazier
at citigroup. great. what is the greater strategy to consolidate and be simple? or will they get creative in new prosperity? matthew: good question. two what we would call special situations. citi and wells fargo. market cap is big. they cannot be ignored. we strongly prefer wells fargo. tom: why? matthew: a lot of questions to be answered at citi. estimates are well below consensus next year at citigroup. we think there will be exiting of certain businesses, some simplification of customer base and reduced earnings more than expected. tom: what is the strategic distinction of the new wells fargo? matthew: more around the edges as opposed to transformational. they came out with new business
reporting the other day that supports. we expect more details tomorrow. we think it is more around the edges with a relatively modest impact to earnings. the real key with wells, obviously getting past the caps and take out costs, which they will be able to do overtime. traditionally, lisa: democrats are harder on banks. no one is talking about banking regulation. is that narrative dead? matthew: well, the most important thing will come back to the macro environment. economy getting better, people spending, traveling, borrowing, you will see higher volumes across banks, businesses and higher rates with wider margins, you will also see quite stable,
improvement in credit quality. that is 90% of the story with banks. there are regulatory and political risks you could think of. those are a distant second to the macro stuff. tom: don't be a stranger. love having you on. really interesting record on following stories of big banks. absolutely fascinating here, so many people got the path right coming out of the financial crisis, the timeline, 3-7 years, now there is a mystery to it. lisa: people saying the three components of banking will be firing on all cylinders. interest income, increase yields rise, trading revenues expected high, the fed is backstopping the market, the volume of loans, as the economy expands. these are the three aspects.
the question is -- how much is baked in? rally of 40% in a couple months in stocks, especially if we don't get yields higher and expectations don't come to fruition. tom: is there coffee that jamie dimon has that is better than we have? they have fine china, the whole thing. lisa: you missed the china. tom: do you think they are talking about a firm this morning? do they build their own a firm? -- affirmation? lisa: are they investing a lot in tech? that is the question. how much will fintech firms become rivals as the occ gives charters? i do not know if it is realistic. they are all trying to figure out how to adapt to new reality. tom: fourth-grader in walmart trying to get into the banking
♪ >> the course of the virus, the pandemic, and the vaccines will determine the course of the future economy. >> the economy has shown fairly good resilience to this third covid wave. >> the street has woken up to the idea of cyclicality being dominant. >> you are likely to see some turn and maybe a pullback. >> volatility kills people's confidence and when you can make a buck. >> if we have recovery in 2021, that's a failure. we need to have a boom. >> this is