tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg January 17, 2021 11:00pm-12:00am EST
washington, d.c. is gearing up for an inauguration with security on high alert. a report from the associated press says officials fear possible inside attacks on the big day. israel's finance ministers minister says the nation will start opening its economy next month, having already vaccinated 23% of the population. 8:00 a.m. across the emirates. risk assets on the back foot as we start your monday morning. shaping up to be an historic week with not just the inauguration on the agenda. we have central banks to look forward to. in terms of earnings, look out for bank of america, goldman sachs, netflix. the bond markets a little bit later because of the holidays on the way. jgb yields under pressure with higher falling domestic demand according to goldman sachs. investors who continue to face more attractive bond yields
overseas, that is steepening the curve. continued portfolio rebalancing is going to keep that in play. the bloomberg dollar index gets a lift by 0.1%. brent crude under pressure by 0.9%. a stronger dollar story. surging cases of coronavirus after the slumping we saw in friday trade. let's check on the markets in asia now. >> it is a busy weekend we are seeing increase in asia with the msci asia-pacific index lower for a second session, but we are off the earlier lows of the day. a gdp beat from china leading markets in hong kong and china. the csi 300 on a lunch break up 0.8% having its first gain in four sessions. continued weakness in south
korean stocks which hit records a couple weeks ago. selling out of a number of korean equities today. goldman seeing movement in korean and taiwan shares. chipmakers taking a hit on this news the trump administration will restrict licenses to several huawei suppliers. the u.k. under pressure. dollar strength story, we have more weakness coming through in the aussie and the yuan, now down 0.1% against the greenback. onshore still pretty steady. yousef: we will touch base later on. let's check the first word headlines. global coronavirus cases are approaching $95 million. brazil has granted emergency approval for the sinovac vaccine. the u.k. says it is considering
all possible measures to rein in covid-19. israel is said to begin readily reopening its economy next month , expecting to be nearly back to normal by march. the country has been under strict lockdown since the middle of december. the finance minister says the government must balance rising infection numbers with the need to reopen the economy. thousands of national guard troops are in washington ahead of joe biden's inauguration. officials say they have uncovered threats and bomb plots. by then will take office with action on what his staff calls four overlapping crises with a dozen executive orders expected on inauguration day alone. president trump will leave the
white house for the final time wednesday morning ahead of joe biden's inauguration. bloomberg has a copy of his plans which include a goodbye ceremony at andrews air force base outside washington where he will fly to florida and his mar-a-lago resort. trump will be the first living president in more than a century to skip the inauguration. alexey navalny has been arrested on his return to moscow following treatment for suspected poisoning. he flew home from berlin and was detained by police as he left the plane. he and his supporters have been gathering. russian opposition monitoring group says 37 people were arrested. the latest data out of china this morning confirms the country's economy expanded last year, making it the only major western nation to avoid contraction amid the pandemic fallout. full-year growth came in at --
with 6.5% in the final quarter. retail sales jumped in december but fell almost 4% over 2020. the head of asia trading strategy at citigroup will markets is here. have you had a chance to crunch through these numbers? what were your key takeaways? >> good morning. basically, the chinese numbers continue to point to what we had thought. economic growth is pretty strong. industrial production is also strong. the consumer is a little bit of a weak spot, which means stimulus efforts from the government. the thing we are watching out for his whether the pboc is actually going to continue maintaining a very tight policy in the face of the economy on the break of deflation. yousef: that is the key point,
isn't it? the pboc unexpectedly withdrew some liquidity. this is the first time in six months it has happened. it was small. liquidity easing over the past two months is designed to contain the fallout from a string of onshore defaults. that maybe over. your expectation for their next move in light of the data and the macroeconomic backdrop? >> i think they will continue with the policy they have been following for the last year, which has been to keep policy on the titer and -- the tighter end of the spectrum. we had concerns about a spike that was driven by food. now it has gone completely the other way. in a way what is happening is
the pboc is maintaining a tight policy regime in an environment where the economy is doing fairly well. we don't expect any dramatic changes. the loan prime rate decision is coming up this week as well. we think no change there. pretty much from the pboc perspective, it's going to be steady as she goes. yousef: what are the implications for the local currency and ultimately your view on chinese assets? in the bonds are the equity space. >> the equity space i think is the one where -- basically indicating they don't want continued use -- policy in the equity market this year, it has
performed very well. that has happened on the back of pre-much a cyclical -- pretty much a cyclical recovery. cyclicals have done very well. materials in particular doing extremely well. the market is basically indicating a cyclical recovery, potentially the consumer discretionary retail spending might indicate discretionary might be overdone, but the overall picture of cyclical growth continues. i would say there is a fair amount of stimulus in this number as well. maybe about 1.5% of this gdp growth is down to stimulus efforts. if that is the case, commodities
like iron ore should remain very bullish, doing quite positive. yousef: how much of a distraction are the ongoing efforts by the trump administration to do as much damage on chinese entities specifically related around their involvement in threatening u.s. national security? that is going to get carried over into the incoming biden administration. run me through your read on headlines. >> there is a lot of headline risk going into wednesday, we are watching out for that. last week they did talk about the big technology shares. and they decided not to sanction them. i think the point is those that have been sanctioned so far are
a relatively small percentage of the indices, and it is -- the concern is if there was some new debate that hit some of the bigger chinese internet names. that would be a lot more significant in terms of index rates. what we have seen his money coming in from investors getting into the names which have been falling as a result of index fund selling. it proved to be a buying opportunity. we have to wait to see what the biden administration does. they could just ease off and do nothing for the next few months. yousef: we still have a lot to talk about. hold that thought. plenty more ahead. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day
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yousef: goldman sachs has raised its u.s. growth forecast on the joe biden's stimulus plan. economists now see the economy expanding faster than the 6.4% previously expected as rates decisions from the likes of the ecb caps off a busy week. the nation is bracing for trouble as washington gears up for the presidential inauguration on wednesday. as you look at these events in the pipeline? what would you say is likely to be the most important for global markets? >> i think it is really going to be the passage of the stimulus and the pace of vaccinations that are going to be done.
israel, it is significant, they think they are going to be able to start opening up the economy. from that perspective, we are looking at when the normalization can actually happen. it does seem from that perspective, the u.k. is going to be one of the first to reopen and potentially the u.s. as well. that could be the most important. for every market, what that is probably going to mean is that as we get to normalization, the support that is provided will probably be -- will probably market short-term high. we are not there yet. yousef: i was reading through your notes.
you talk about the central banks and the fed in particular creating this mini bubble. concerns really come into play in the second half of 2021. why is that? >> we think that if you get to a world where normalization is happening as a result of vaccinations, clearly the central banks don't need to act in the way they have, we have been doing some work that indicates for the time being, the policy is appropriate. there is no need to reduce the supply. if you get to the stage where normalization happens, you think the schedule which the fed is talking about what actually be brought forward. especially if stimulus is coming about. in that scenario, a reduction of
that stimulus from the central banks will be taken negatively by the equity markets. we think that may lead to a substantial correction, double digit correction in potentially the third quarter. that will happen after the vaccinations have been done. yousef: do you expect central banks for the most part to not continue easing any further at this stage? >> i think while there is still incentive around covid and where the schedule is for opening up, central bankers will--there were some very optimistic noises at the beginning of december that -- when the vaccine first came out about how quickly things could be opened. as you can see, the number of
deaths continues to increase. the u.k. is probably the bellwether for this. for the time being, equity markets remain bullish. we think it is going to be short-term, maybe 5%. that will be another buying opportunity. yousef: where do you buy? in values? do you stay with the traditional place, the big winners of 2020? i assume if you think this is going to end very bullish for the s&p 500, you would follow the broader rotations underway. >> of the thing is, what you have is everything actually
going up together. if you look around the world, there are very few sectors which are actually down. in the u.s., you see this play that is happening. there is a move into cyclical sectors, especially energy. we think that continues for the next few months. i think the second half of the year, things get more difficult. even if it is the growth sectors, you will probably be doing ok. yousef: the ocean of liquidity that is lifting pretty much all boats. thank you for parsing through that.
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>> we start from where the economy is today. we are at. . a very precarious moment. the economy and the virus are spiraling. now is the time to act. this is going to take a lot of work, but we are ready to do it. the president-elect is making the case now is the time to move forward. yousef: president-elect joe biden's pick for the director of the national economic council speaking about the state of the u.s. economy on fox news. we have of course the story coming through from guggenheim partners that they have been looking at quite a few opportunities. scott minerd has been speaking to bloomberg. >> it is really amazing to have watched of this recovery in
prices so rapidly against the backdrop of pandemic. you know, at this stage in the game, we are remaining positive. we recognize there could be setbacks near-term. given the new paradigm we are living in after the fed or bond purchase program -- corporate bond purchase program, we think we could see spreads tighten relative to treasuries to levels we have not seen since the 90's. >> after the unveiling of the $2 trillion that are going to be spent on stimulating, or indeed, a rescue plan for america, does it go far enough, and what does that do to assets? >> 85% of americans will receive a check as a result of that program. approximately 20% of americans are unemployed. it would seem to me a more focused attempt -- sorry, 10% of
americans are unemployed. it would seem to me a more focused attempt to target the money to the sectors that need it more. would have a more positive outcome for the economy. nevertheless, that is a lot of stimulus. a lot of it will get spent. some of it will get saved. once we get past the pandemic, i think some of that savings will get released. people are moving precautionary balances. we could be entering a golden age. >> we are seeing a lot of pressure on the bank stocks still. there are a lot of risks ahead and that is something j.p. morgan has pointed to. if you look along the horizon here, what is the number one risk you are concerned about? >> it is a longer-term problem. that is the gross extreme of income and wealth inequality in the united states. a lot of the policies that are
being put in place are not really doing anything to address that problem. matter of fact, in some ways, they are exacerbating the problem. we are starting to see the effects of social unrest. we saw it in the capital last week. we are in my mind still in a period of anarchy right now. this is the sort of stuff that ultimately leads to revolution. when i say revolution, in the 1930's, we had a revolution. there was a massive change in government policy. huge tax increases, lots of federal programs to create jobs. revolution does not necessarily mean we change the form of american democracy. it does mean policymakers can abruptly make changes to the structure of free enterprise. i think that is a real long-term
threat to the economy, unless policymakers come up with something quickly which addresses these critical issues. >> i think the last time you were on bloomberg television, you talked about bitcoin. you talked about the ability for bitcoin to push higher. i'm not sure if you printed hats and t-shirts with 400,000 on it, but we have seen bitcoin double since that call. i'm wondering not only where you see it going, but what think is going to drive crypto higher. >> one thing we are seeing is the sudden interest in retail. a story that appeared yesterday on bloomberg, there was a discussion about how a lot of the crypto outlets are being overwhelmed. they are starting to limit the orders because they cannot handle the demand. in the short-term, what that is telling you is we are moving into a speculative frenzy. that was one of the reasons for my tweet on monday to say,
perhaps it is time to take money off the table. yousef: the guggenheim partners cio scott minerd speaking earlier. let's run you through what is underway. this is the result of the strength in the greenback. that is weighing on trade. at the same time, there is a general level of normalization that the situation currently is an extension of the broader outlook. investors setting the timeline for the u.s. stimulus package. we are at the lowest level since december as we continue to get closer and closer to the $1800 mark. i want to get used to the goebel markets again. we are starting off this monday morning with a tone that is clearly risk-averse. we are on the back foot for u.s. equity futures. this week we will get the inauguration of joe biden. that historically according to
yousef: our top stories this morning, china gdp numbers beat estimates. goldman sachs has raised its growth outlook for the u.s. after joe biden unveiled a sweeping revival plan. washington dc is gearing up for wednesdays inauguration with security on high alert. the report from the associated press says officials fear a possible insight attack on the big day. israel's finance ministers is
the nation will start opening its economy next month. they already vaccinated around 23% of the population. let's get to the market action in asia and see how the session has fared. juliette saly has the details. >> a little bit of caution in what is an extraordinary big week for central-bank action and the inauguration of joe biden. you are seeing the nikkei 225 extend its declines now having its biggest drop since october 30. big selling in the tech players in taiwan and south korea. this on the news that the trump administration will restrict licenses to several huawei technologies. you can see the taiex up 0.5%. australia's market being dragged lower by weakness in the banking and mining players as well. when it comes to currencies, we have been watching this gdp report out of china.
a little bit of weakness coming through in the offshore yuan today. a lot of this is dollar strength. the other currency that is moving higher is the yen ahead of janet yellen's testimony in focus. in singapore we have nonoil domestic exports climbing year on year. last month well above estimates, but you are seeing the korean won at a three week low. risk appetite feeling as we see money going into the greenback. yousef: speaking of strength in the dollar, goldman sachs, what exactly are they recommending? >> we have seen a lot of dollar strength, really focusing on the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package from president-elect joe biden. goldman sachs strategist expect you will see further dollar weakness for 2020. they are saying exposure to risk assets and upside in commodity prices will outweigh the
potential dragged from higher u.s. rates. they are saying to stay long emfx. bloomberg economics sang turkey's lire is one to watch ahead of the central-bank decision this week to keep the nations one week repo rate at 17%. the downside for flipside to this is if we see disappointment in the vaccine rollout, that panel from goldman sachs saying this is less effective than we are expecting, the safe haven dollar will likely appreciate. yousef: juliette saly with some important market action. felipe, qatar islami bank, they posted net income for the year that was better than estimated. what are the details? >> good evening. that is a thing to watch. qatar islamic bank reported income of 3.7 billion riyals.
that is better than performance last year and compared to an estimate of 2.1 7 billion riyals. around 1.3 billion riyals, the lender said precautionary impairment charge is more than double the amount specified in previous years. this is what a lot of traders are looking at. the context of the pandemic we had last year. this is the third biggest member of the qatar index. the stock is up 4% this year, extending an increase of 1.2% last year. yousef: in saudi arabia, they are planning to provide stimulus for listed companies as part of a push to help stimulate ipos. what is the background on the
announcement? >> that is correct. they put out this statement after markets were closed in riyadh yesterday saying they will provide long-term loans to companies that are listed. this is part of efforts to try to encourage or private sector to put their shares into the exchange. the project was announced by the finance ministry. the statement itself said this is -- this has been done in partnership with the dow exchange. it is quite interesting to see this. we have reported several different steps the saudi exchanges doing -- exchange is doing in trying to bring more companies, especially the smaller companies, the private names, to the biggest exchange we have in the region. yousef: are you driving? it sounds like you are.
it is not safe to do that. last question and we will let you go on. turkish market action, a partnership with the consulting firm mckinsey to develop e-commerce solutions. what do we know? >> that is an interesting deal we had details on last friday as well. it is the largest company in the turkish stock exchange by market value. they said they partnered with mckinsey, the big american consulting group, to develop e-commerce and distribution within turkey. they are going to do this through one of their units and they -- the new company is going to be called -- i'm sorry, and they will invest around $75 billion over five years. mckinsey will hold 20% of the new company. yousef: thank you for running us
the data is going to feed into sovereign meals. the markets live team suggests that kicked off in april 2020. still lower globally and on the msci asia-pacific index, 0.5%. you see how nuance to the reactions are. in china we are getting a bump. 0.8% on the csi 300. dollar yuan and the marginally stronger dollar backdrop, currently around 6.5. in the commodities space, one thing that caught my eye, it is of course -- we are down 3.3% as it stands due to the shifting weather patterns with expectations around that. let's check on the latest business flash headlines for you as well. amazon backs deliver to's latest
funding round, valuing the company at more than $7 billion. deliveroo is weighing an ipl around april -- ipo around april. food delivery firms benefiting in the last year from virus imposed lockdown. a canadian convenience store operator is said to have dropped its plan for a merger with a french supermarket chain in the face of strong opposition from the french government. we are told the decision came after executives flew to paris. they offered sweeteners including billions in investments and job security. they are considering a looser alliance. the world's top shipper is calling for more effective support and response to surging piracy and kidnappings off the coast of west africa. the appeal comes as the number of attacks on shipping jumped 20% last year with 135 crews
taken hostage. the gulf of guinea accounted for 22 instances. that is your bloomberg business flash. anthony fauci says joe's promise of administering hundreds of millions of coronavirus vaccine shots is, quote, absolutely doable. >> the issue of getting 100 million doses in the first 100 days is absolutely a doable thing. what the president-elect is going to do is, where he needs, to invoke the dpa to get the thing is you need, whatever they may be. yousef: the number of covid deaths in the u.s. nears 400,000. let's bring in our asian consumer and health lead. what is the latest in terms of the situation in the united states?
>> the u.s. continues to set new records on death and cases. we are coming up to the first anniversary of the first identified case in the u.s.. it has been clear the u.s. response has been completely underwhelming and it leads the world in number of cases, number of deaths, and infection rates. everything in the u.s. now is waiting for the new administration. president-elect biden has set out his plan to increase vaccinations to set up a federal vaccination site across the u.s. and invoke the law that anthony fauci pointed to where the government -- it is a wartime law. the government can compel private factories to start producing the components it needs to increase supply. there has been a lot of discussion over whether this can happen as planned. at the moment, the bright spot
is a new administration with the plan is coming. yousef: there are concerns about the pfizer vaccine in norway. what happened? >> that is creating renewed scrutiny and concern over the pfizer vaccine. in norway, the regulators have announced 30 people, older people, over the age of 90, have died after receiving the pfizer vaccine. those debts are being investigated. we know that because the trial process was so rushed. this age group was not well represented in the trials. it is unknown how that allergic reaction would have caused them to die. it is creating renewed concern that the testing process has been so rushed. we are at the beginning of understanding how this vaccine will impact the general population. yousef: the u.s. is stepping up claims about the source of the pandemic as well.
>> over the weekend, the state department issued another statement repeating claims that the virus was released by the chinese lab in wuhan or leaked. this is something to have said before and people are still asking if there is evidence, what is that evidence? of course china has repeatedly denied this. none of the staffers have been infected, which they would have if it came from the lab. it is a represent -- a repetition without evidence. yousef: let's look at the new covid variants. johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health professor spoke to bloomberg about the new strains and how efficient vaccines are against them.
>> multiple lineages that we are calling variance, there is the u.k. variant, which is what most people have heard about. we hear variants from south africa, brazil, japan, other places. most of the time, these virus lineages come to our attention because they have changes in the surface protein that either will make that protein more efficient at effecting cells or in some cases, there are parts of the protein we know that antibodies that protect us from infection can bind to. what we are focusing on is understanding how frequently these viruses are occurring in the population and how much of an effect does these one or two changes in the protein have on the vaccine-induced response? so far the data looks good. the vaccine seems to recognize
all of these variants as they come up. there is the ongoing research question many laboratories are keeping track of. >> when you look at the logistical concerns about distribution, how much progress has the u.s. done over two weeks? >> it is important to note the priority populations in the u.s., those living in residence facilities as well as health-care workers, those are difficult populations to immunize. i just got my second shot of my vaccine yesterday. there was a staff of 12 to 20 health-care workers running the vaccination. that is a lot of people to pull away from a hospital that is really pushing its limits in terms of covid-19 patients. the rollout initially was slow. i'm very hopeful now the vaccine production seems to be continuously increasing.
as we move into the general population, they will be more efficient and find throughput ways of getting vaccines into people's arms. hey vaccine in our freezer does not do anything. it needs to get into people's arms at the schedule approved by the fda for maximum benefit. >> when you look at the concerns of the five to six months, how important is that we have new vaccines that would come on the market? does that help? or is there too much more logistics? does it help with doses? >> any vaccines will help with the doses. even though we are increasing the amount of vaccinations each week, we still need to increase that level by a great degree
to obtain the number of people who are vaccinated by the end of the summer. hegel have always thought about is the end of the summer because what we would like to have is a large percentage of the population immunized before we enter the fall season. we saw how horrific the fall season was. people moved inside, into places where there is more contact between them. we want to make sure by the end of the summer we have a high percentage of people who are vaccinated. new vaccines are going to allow us to move into different populations. different storage conditions, different numbers of doses. all of those can be handled by our health care systems. those will help us get to all segments of the population so we can be really comprehensive in terms of who is getting immunized.
>> i think there will be a dramatic recovery. >> i would feel very upset if the -- continues. >> china can avoid decoupling if they stop inappropriate actions. >> it is not enough to conduct diplomacy with china through a megaphone. >> the relationship between the u.s. and china will remain similar to how it is today. yousef: some of our guests talking about the outlook for u.s.-china relations on the incoming vice president. china is exhilarating growth along with joe biden's's stimulus growth. the head of global macro and asset allocation spoke to bloomberg about the outlook starting with the fed bond purchasing program.
>> the tapir is on the table right now. that is clearly what powell was indicating. i think we are going to have a strong economy in the second half of the year. that is the message from the central bank. they're going to continue to buy $80 billion in treasuries, $20 billion in mortgages, and keep the foot on the accelerator. >> you have a bullish outlook for economic growth. tell us about that. >> there are underpinnings to our growth outlook. one is if we do a lot of interest in asia and china is strong, we saw exports in china that came out, they were actually up year on year $2.6 trillion. a record year. people are underestimating the savings. the u.s. consumer, the saving rate is about 14% right now, double where we were going into the pandemic. we have seen a huge surge in the savings rate in china as well. the third is the fiscal stimulus. based on last night's comments
from president-elect biden, personal income could be up almost 5% in 2021. that is on the heels of a recession in 2020. income was up 3%. there's a lot of firepower in the tank. we need to get the vaccine in a thoughtful way. this is a recession that is quite different and the recovery will be quite different. in 2009, 2010, and 2011, we were worrying, could the economy make it? that is when qe took off. now the economy is going to make it, it is going to be strong, and from a global perspective, asia is going to lead us. >> are there policymakers at the fed who have seen what you see, have seen the potential for exhilaration of growth? and at the same time, who are perhaps concerned about the risks of infinite bond buying and debt monetization? how powerful are their voices at the fed?
>> a good question. ultimately, the fed is committed to keeping rates low through 2023. i don't think that is on the table. there is dissension or discussion about the pace of tapering. i think the taper tantrum created an unsettled cap on markets. real rates are -100 basis points. that is an incredibly accommodative situation. 2018, right for the pandemic, we were positive. we have a lot more room in my mind to not have the foot on the accelerator as much on the bond buying. we will have to wait. it is certainly some thing the fed will do. i think when we get into the fourth quarter this year, we are going to have very fast nominal gdp growth. very fast nominal gdp growth. we have not had that during
recoveries. the way you deal with that from a central perspective has to be different. clearly the fed is taking all these inputs. our perspective, maybe 150 to 200 companies locally, what we see is an economy poised to grow quite strongly coming into the second half of 2021. yousef: henry mcvey of kkr speaking. quite a bit of caution as investors start their week. inauguration and more this week. we have big earnings as well. bank of america, the likes of goldman sachs and netflix as well. we did have data out of china that showed the economic recovery remains on track and beats expectations on the whole. we could see caution trickling
through on the dollar index, we are up 0.1%. jgb yields are likely to continue to be pressured higher by falling domestic demand is what goldman sachs is saying this morning, saying if you look at a steepening yield curve, it suggests continued portfolio rebalancing. some of the bond funds are trying to match allocations. let's give you the asia breakdown as well as the big data dump that came through in the last couple of hours. the ms ci asia-pacific index down 0.5%. the nuances come to the fore when you look at the chinese specific place. in the currency space, dollar yuan at 6.5. natural gas, one of the standouts in the commodity space. the weather patterns getting into that, investors selling the asset down 3.3%. finally, on bitcoin, retreating
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