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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  February 3, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST

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push ups, aero squat. it inflates in 30 seconds. aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. manus: good morning from bloomberg's italy's headquarters -- middle east headquarters. jeff bezos will step down as ceo of amazon. stocks are risk on. we are in result season. we will speak to the outgoing ceo of lehmans and the former
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ecb president mario draghi has been asked to form a new italian government and steer the economy out of crisis. it is the depths of earnings season. 7:00 a.m. in frankfurt and berlin. annmarie hordern, take it away. annmarie: good results coming out of siemens. their net income outlook is raised. siemens had said they felt the burden of the pandemic was owing to weigh on earnings, but clearly, this is a story about the german manufacturing center. they were able to withstand, keeping a lot of factories open during the pandemic. but the demand from china has given the support of a lot of these companies. we are going to hear from siemens' ceo joe kaser. it is his final conversation
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before he hands over the reins of europe's largest industrial company. that interview with matt miller coming up. we also have other results coming out. matt: we had the santander numbers. this is the lady who is reassuring the market on capital. she has capital above 12% for the first time. she is reassuring the market on the dividend story. they are prepared to pay out a dividend. it would be cash, depending on the ecb. the top red headline is the restructuring that continues at santander. of course, a brutal fourth quarter in terms of net income. a miss by more than 110 million euros. this is the institution that agreed to cut 3600 jobs in december. branches in spain. this narrative of restructuring is one that will be explained more cogently, the first ever
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loss at that institution last year in the second quarter, writing down the u.k. assets. there is only one story which is dominating the headlines as the most read. when do you decide to go? jeff bezos is going to chairmanship. his successor, the man who brings home the bacon, aws, cloud services. $6.7 billion. the man who is building the alpha within amazon. annmarie: certainly bringing home the bacon. aws burning $12.7 billion in sales in the fourth quarter. annually that is $50 billion. this is the guy that has been growing that side of the business, now he will take the helm. saying goodbye to jeff bezos,
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the first thing i thought was, way to go out on top. for americans, he really is the academy of the american dream. he started this company in his garage, humble beginnings, selling books. now amazon is a household name. 25 years, he has built this legacy. manus: he has indeed. there's a couple of cracking stories. we will talk more about it in a moment. oracle, microsoft, and google, watch out boys and girls. google cloud business lost money last year. let's continue the story. the incredible legacy of jeff bezos. it spans 25 years. amazon is at its most inventive ever making it the optimal time for the transition. what are the challenges in store for andy jassey? annmarie: one of my favorite
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stories about amazon's beginning was in 1997, jeff bezos goes to hps to give a talk to the class and one of the students told him, your business is doomed. sell it now to barnes & noble. let's look at the legacy he is leaving behind. it was a wise decision, he did not sell it. $1.7 trillion in market cap, that is where jeff bezos is leaving amazon. one of the most fertile periods ever for an american company, with companies like microsoft and apple. stepping down reflects one of the most awkward realities of being one of the richest people in the world. he has a collection of properties that he owns between amazon, washington post, and his space project blue origin. balancing those things, which at times can be conflicting, is one of the reasons bezos is leaving. he said in his letter stepping
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down he wants to concentrate more on his passions, like blue origin. he is one of the richest people, but elon musk is richer. blue origin is not as successful as spacex. bezos personally funded blue origin by selling $1 billion of amazon stock every year. perhaps one of the biggest things bezos is leaving for jas sey is the antitrust lawsuits, the regulatory hurdles amazon is going to face here on out. there are outstanding examinations coming onto amazon between the u.s., eu, and canada. citizens in india also bringing a lawsuit as well. annmarie: i like what you have called it. the awkward reality. what do you think? that is an awkward reality i would be happy to face. manus: i could deal with the awkward reality, i assure you.
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annmarie: bloomberg's dani burger, thanks for the recap on our top story. >> gamestop shares have seen their biggest one-day loss on record with other retail investors'favorite slumping. the stoxx robinhood put on its restricted list have lost a combined 100 62 $7 billion in market value -- $167 billion in market value. a new study on the u.k.'s decision to space out vaccine dosing. astrazeneca's covid vaccine is 82% effective with a three month gap. it may also make it harder to pass on the virus with reports showing a drop in transmission after the first dose. mario draghi has been approached to become italy's next prime minister.
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the head of state will meet him today after talks failed to produce a new coalition for outgoing premier just happy -- giuseppe conte. the veteran policymaker may be about to take charge. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: what will the bond markets make of mario draghi potentially leading italy? coming up, president biden's stimulus plan on the fast track. ♪
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annmarie: this is "daybreak europe." we have been so excited about jeff bezos we never checked on the markets. seeing some of this risk on rally in asia leading into the futures market as well. wall street ended up higher. s&p up nearly 0.5% alongside the stoxx 50 futures. the frenzy on gamestop really hitting a pause. we are back to earnings, fundamentals. euro-dollar 1.20. mario draghi is set to be approached to become prime minister of italy. when it comes to the dollar, potentially we see more weakness because of stimulus in the united states. joe biden may end up getting his $1.9 trillion through a system called reconciliation, which if you are not american and don't know the rule, basically it means the senate could push
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forward without having a single republican vote. manus: what does that say for the next four years? we need to ask that question. is this the right road to set out on? 1400 other stimulus checks, that keeps the retail story in train, so to speak. how much will they spend on vaccines? i want to pivot to the reddit rally. is it over? gamestop down 60%. how did you get a stock from $19 to $360 in 10 days? janet yellen is convening the covenant regulation. -- coven of regulation. suzanne, here we are, knee-deep in earnings. it is hard to know which way to turn. let's talk about the reddit rally. 50 of those restricted stocks
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are down 10%. do you get the sense this mania has burned itself out? welcome to the show. >> thank you. i think the retail story around reddit and the robinhood app is a sideshow. the bigger picture is what is going on with covid vaccines, whether we are in economic recovery. we are seeing good earnings results coming out of companies. that is not to say -- retail investors are becoming a more important part of the puzzle. it does suggest we are on two levels in the market when you have this activity going on. annmarie: janet yellen will be speaking to regulators today.
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what could the second -- the secretary or regulators do in this situation? suzanne: we saw post-financial crisis there was a ban on short selling. they could go down that route, but i doubt they will do very much. probably they will let things play out. manus: let's see what janet yellen does. i was drawn to your discussion around earnings. we have santander, google, a smorgasbord of indicators and flags. let's deal with the differential. you have google, alphabet, barnstorming ahead in terms of -- sorry, on one part of business, but the cloud business is under pressure. amazon shows a very strong position in the cloud. are we going to see more in cloud? are -- in tech? are we going to have to differentiate?
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suzanne: you want to balance your portfolio. you have businesses that are more cyclical in the investing space. they have improved on their earnings as we go into 2021. but you have to big tech heavyweights like the alphabets of this world that are still very much delivering and that is a question of the strong getting stronger. companies with strong balance sheets and with structural growth, particularly with exposure to the growth of the emerging-market, really do stand out as continuing to deliver when future returns. obviously the market is very volatile. there are always rotations between growth and cyclical. but i would advocate people have balance in their portfolios, looking out for the longer term. i believe alphabet is the kind
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of company that is going to be around in the next decade whereas you might question mark some of these penny stocks the retail investors are playing in. annmarie: looking at the stoxx 600, basic resources, you are holding that in your breakdown. technology has done well, consumer goods. all of these has done -- have done well. when you look at what has done poorly, telecoms, energy, banks down. you still have health care there which is in the red. are these sectors you want to pull out of and put towards may be more technology or more in basic resources? suzanne: it is about striking a balance. there are areas of the sectors that are deeply undervalued, but are in structural decline. the move toward climate change, environmentalization, does that
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put fossil fuel companies under the spotlight? that said, capex in the oil sector is being cut. the oil price is high with wti over $50. we think longer-term places like china are going to need a lot of energy going forward. these businesses could potentially be opportunities for mergers between big companies to address their revenue line. i think on a stock by stock basis, you have to be selective. in terms of the banks, i run a portfolio where you don't have to invest in any particular sector or stock. i think the banking sector, the u.s. obviously has a huge amount of regulation. the european bank sector itself is probably under a lot of pressure. it is not an area we have to invest in.
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annmarie: suzanne hutchins will be staying with us this morning. coming up, fizzling out. the slump also hitting silver. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back.
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>> to corner the market and create a short squeeze, we estimate requires each one of these wall street bet individuals to accumulate 4200 ounces. that is a lot of silver and where are you going to put it? annmarie: calculate how much silver wall street bets
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participants would need to corner the market. silver is up slightly after posting its biggest loss since august. that follows the buying frenzy that sent prices to an eight-year high earlier this week. gold has had its worst start to the year in a decade, down more than 3%. our guest sees a number of tailwinds for the precious metal this year. suzanne hutchins from newton investment management. looking through the portfolio you have at noon investment, you have a portfolio that is exposure of 11.3% to precious metals. do you see precious metals being vulnerable to what we saw this week with silver? suzanne: the metals space and the commodities space is undeniably unstable at times. we hold it very much for a reason. the reason for that is that in
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the bigger picture, the macro backdrop, we think there is quite a big resurgence in financial markets and the economy, driven by reflation. we have a policy response which is both monetary and fiscal. policymakers are keen to rally the economy's off that with more inflation. precious metals such as gold will continue to do well. the sizing of any position in a portfolio is very important. we have dial back our gold position recently. we don't actually believe bonds are going to be very much in this environment. gold is an effective hedge
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against volatility we are seeing. manus: the other area of your macro trends you talk about is in china, the rightist -- the latest credit boom. last year 3000 stocks went limit down. three quarters of a trillion dollars were wiped out. equity markets have roared to the top of the board. what happens in china this year? do we avoid a hard landing? suzanne: it is really difficult to know what is going on in china and what to believe, but certainly, if you look at the gdp growth numbers, they are very healthy, particularly compared to the rest of the world. i think china has their hands around the economy in a better way than they did a few years ago. the currency has been well behaved as well.
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china, with one of the largest populations, i think it is a huge opportunity on a growth basis to gain exposure to china. with emerging markets, they are much more volatile. they are higher beats then developed market exposure. annmarie: you have to know where the u.s. dollar is going to trade. i want to get your thoughts on the dollar. your teams has for the first time since the global financial crisis, the dollar looks vulnerable. are you preparing for a rebound? suzanne: quite the opposite. the dollar has been on a structural bold trend over the last decade or so and we are starting to see that turn. weakness in the u.s. dollar is very supportive, but also
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obviously for emerging markets as well. the last couple weeks, the dollar has been stronger when people have been concerned about tapering coming out of the u.s. rhetoric. when there is a risk off environment, generally the dollar will do better than other currencies, things being safe havens. we think the u.s. dollar is more on a bear market trend. what we are seeing is a lot of money moving out of the u.s., particularly out of the treasury market and into the asian region. manus: thank you for being with us this morning. suzanne hutchins, head of real return at newton investment management. ok. coming up, we are going to hear from joe kaser as the serial dealmaker bids a farewell to the company.
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that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london. this is "daybreak europe." jeff bezos will step down as the ceo of amazon, the company he founded in his garage over 25 years ago. stocks are risk on. we hear from the outgoing ceo of european industrial giant siemens. and former ecb president mario draghi has been asked to form a
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new italian government and steer the economy out of crisis. good morning. near 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. we have results from siemens. suzanne hutchins talking about the growing economy. it plays into. that story this morning. that was a lifeline for siemens and other manufacturers. manus: and whether they avoid a hard landing is going to be important. two the numbers from joe kaeser, the last numbers he delivers to the market. they are raising the guidance for the year. it is around that -- the expectations on china. they expect 5.5 billion euros in fluid your income -- full year income. you are seeing demand from china coming back as well, like lies -- likewise with automakers as well. this is a veteran dealmaker.
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this is the man who shaped siemens. a number of businesses have been moved off into their own entities. comparable revenue growth and the net income both raised to mid to high single digit full-year revenue growth. the man himself. >> fiscal q1 obviously has been a very strong quarter. revenue is up 7%. operational profit up 39% in the middle of a second wave. don't forget, as we have been comparing ourselves with those numbers, year-over-year on a pandemic freefall in 2020. we have been well underway in what we wanted to achieve. the other news is if we look forward to the next quarters to
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come, it is very uncertain what global development will do in terms of supply chain as well as the demand-side. we will play it by ear, quarter by quarter. if you compare our neighbors with -- our numbers with peers, the jury is out on what the pandemic will look like. matt: how serious do you think this pandemic is going to change the way siemens does business? how much have you had to change already, which changes do you expect to stick? joe: given its part of the value chain has been performing well, we learned throughout the first wave, which we can apply now. we hardly had any interruptions.
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not in the supply chain, not production, nor the interaction in r&d. even sales was looking well through virtual meetings. we very much pushed remote services with our customers obviously due to the fact we were limited in accessing the sites. what we have learned in general in our industry is that industrialization has gotten a big push. that is the good news. we are not alone in the world. we have customers and suppliers which we desperately need to sell our products. that's why i was careful about the demand-side going forward. we must not forget we are in the capital goods industry. customers invest if they have
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trust in what they expect to come. that is why it is important we get the vaccine rolled out to everybody and make sure there is certainty in terms of health and safety matters. matt: do you have confidence that europe can roll out the vaccine in a timely fashion? you know, relative to the u.s. and the u.k., the process that the european commission made to get this vaccine seems much slower and more disorganized. joe: the good thing is the european union has tried to be a real european union and stick together with all the members to make this a european effort. that is the good news. typically what you see is a lot of nationalism.
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what we see though is that the european union is far away from being able to execute on what they decide. that is the area that needs significant improvement. otherwise we fall back and every country has its own thing, which is not a good thing. the community autistic together -- ought to stick together. there will be a massive supplier impact in the next quarter and then we need to organize. i am optimistic we will have 60% of the population of europe vaccinated. that is a good start for the second half of the calendar year. annmarie: exclusive interview
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with matt miller speaking without going siemens ceo joe kaeser. matt miller is with us now for more. i want to start with the numbers from china. that is why siemens has done so well. at the start of the 1980's, siemens, vw, all these companies made bets on china and it is paying off. is the 2025 made in china, what xi jinping wants to do, is that a direct threat to german manufacturing companies? matt: i actually asked joe that exact question and he said no. he said the made in china 2025 campaign is really helpful to especially the small and medium enterprises here, and that he cannot thrive unless those companies are thriving as well. in a way, he ties the success of that campaign to the ongoing success of siemens.
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it does not look like he sees it as a competitive relationship, or so he says. he is ever the diplomat as you heard on his answer on how well the european commission did obtaining the vaccine. clearly a dragged its feet, but his very diplomatic answer was that we all need to work together. manus: he is a true diplomat. when he comes through this region, he takes time with us. good to see you this morning. some of the parts did not make sense, we think about the eight years. we know a thing about ceos. we have had everything. this is a ceo who implemented that strategy, didn't he? of having all the parts. matt: absolutely. i started covering siemens here
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21 years ago and at that point, they were doing the same thing. this is a company that tends to grow through acquisitions during one ceo and then shrink through spinoffs during another. it is a living, breathing organism over the last 20 years. i have seen it go through that cycle at least twice. this is what joe has done. to be fair to him, he has done well. the chart you are looking at is a three-month chart. if you take it out to eight years since he took over in august of 2013, the stock has more than doubled. he has delivered handsome profits to the shareholders for whom he works. annmarie: and certainly the company is a lot leaner than when he arrived. what should be expect from the new ceo? what is top of his agenda? matt: he's going to try and
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continue the growth story from the early 80's with china. they are going to try and deepen their roots in china and make more money there. roland bush is going to try and at least at first ba -- at first be a joe kaeser jr. and take on attributes his boss had. siemens is going to take on these time margin areas such as software that help to deliver such a good first quarter. manus: i'm checking your picture on the bloomberg system 21 years ago. you have updated your photograph. you have updated your photograph. annmarie: i know the old one you are talking about. it is fantastic. matt: i had to change that because i had the hair of elvis pressley back then, and that is all gone now. manus: we all change.
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annmarie has that all ahead of her. good to see the two of you catching up. matt miller in berlin. a couple of lines coming across the bloomberg now on novo nordisk. it is all about share buybacks for this company. they are starting a share buyback program. i lost my page. that was a schoolboy error. if you can pick it up, i think we have a share buyback in the mix. first quarter profits, 9.3 2 billion. give me the dividend, save me. annmarie: don't worry, we are going too of novo nordisk coming up, he can answer all those questions. you don't want to miss that conversation. they pretty much came in line in terms of estimates. let's get a recap of your first word news. >> european commission president
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ursula von der leyen is taking responsibility for the vaccine roll up. -- rollout. russia has jailed opposition leader alexey navalny for two years and eight months. he was arrested last month for his return from germany where he had been recovering from a near fatal nerve agent attack. in a statement to the court, he said someone did not want him to return to russia a free man, referring to president putin. the legal team of former president donald trump says his impeachment is flawed and should be thrown out. lawyers have filed their initial response ahead of a senate hearing saying president trump's speech before the riots is protected by the first amendment. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by
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bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: thank you for that recap. back to our top story, end of the era at amazon. founder and ceo jeff bezos will step down from his post in a third quarter 25 years after founding the company in a garage in seattle. many people thought this was coming at some point. no one was expecting it so soon especially still in the midst of a pandemic. what does this mean? is this the fact they are -- they selected andy jassey. is this the fact amazon is moving toward aws as the control and the growth of the company? >> as you say, cloud is already
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a huge business. it generates more than half of their profits. i think it is perhaps really more about wanting to think about different projects. amazon is in great shape from a competitive perspective. maybe he does not relish a couple years of standing in front of senate committees and all the discussions going on about regulation. he is not excited about that prospect. manus: he is certainly leaving with a message saying this company is at its most inventive ever. when we think of who is stepping in, we look at the web business he has built, it is 10% of the overall profit of this company, and yet you look at the
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underperformance. this is a warning shot to oracle , microsoft, and google, in terms of, the cloud man is here. >> it has been a phenomenal success for amazon web services. it is a business that the established i.t. companies really doubted when they first launched it, but they scrabbled to catch up. it has completely transformed the way corporates biotechnology and root -- corporates buy technology. the fact he is the leader of that unit that is now running the whole show is probably bad news for the competitors. annmarie: we saw shares move to the downside. they are up in after hours
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trading. do you think wall street is going to welcome andy jassey? >> i think so. everything we can see, he is a similar personality to jeff bezos. people at the company for a long time -- i think you will see a smooth transition really. it is about what the business can deliver organically. the concern people have is how much money amazon is going to spend on covid measures and investing for growth. just when you think they are delivering a profit, they invest in the next growth project. perhaps volatility on the short-term in profitability because they have their eye on longer-term prices.
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manus: where is the gear stick for growth? is it international and one day delivery? are those things we are going to see more of? >> i think so. more of the push into advertising, which has already become a big business for them. it is still in the shadows of the likes of facebook and google. the amount of information they have about customers, i think more like google search, there is an opportunity for them to grow into the advertising base. they have big projects going on in the tv domain. they are going to take that more into product. they are also planning to launch a global broadband satellite network to rival elon musk's
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service. they are pushing out into other big areas long-term. manus: let's track his success. thank you, matthew bloxham. we will see whether they deliver dividends. big sports fan, experienced buffalo wings eater. annmarie: he is a new yorker. manus: he is a new yorker. will you get the first interview? annmarie: no, but you know how he ended up on the west coast? his fiancee at the time, they made a deal at a bar. she is from the west coast. he went to harvard business school. they finally said, all right, we will go back to your home town for a bit, and that is it. he hasn't amazon.
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now he's going to be leaving the company. manus: buffalo wings, better than christmas biscuits. the former ecb president mario draghi has been brought in. the details on bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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manus: it is "daybreak europe." the s&p futures are higher. all hail alphabet and amazon. the s&p 500 up 0.4%. bank of america says there is
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too much bliss. the cell-site optimism has gone too far. europe set to open 0.6% higher. euro trades down by 0.07%. mario draghi going to italy. a familiar face to lead them out of the latest political crisis. the former ecb president has been approached to become the next pm. let's get to the room euro chief. -- bureau chief. what happens next? take us through. >> yes, so mario draghi, this familiar figure that had faded into retirement had always been present in the minds of italians has been plucked from retirement to lead the company out of the crisis. italy has been stuck without a government for two weeks. parties have not been able to find an agreement.
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the president will likely not be the task of forming a new government. from there it is an uphill battle to a majority in italy's deeply divided parliament. annmarie: he is going to be welcomed by the markets. a very known entity, well-respected. i was in italy in the last election, the five-star movement campaign headquarters. this is not a group of people that are going to lake mario draghi -- like mario draghi. does he have support in parliament? >> that is going to be the question. several leaders of five-star have, saying we will not support draghi. others have stayed silent, probably signaling they are going to support him. that is true all across the political spectrum. there's going to be a lot of movement. it will not be easy for draghi to find support in the country.
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annmarie: we will see how the market does. 7:00 a.m., btp's open up. thank you so much for joining us. coming up next, our top story, more on amazon, from san francisco. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. this is "daybreak europe." end of an era and amazon. jeff bezos stepping down from his post in the third quarter, 25 years after founding the company in a seattle garage. now it is a behemoth. let's get more on the legacy behind bezos. dani: that 25 years was one of the most successful eras of any american business over that time. bezos was able to grow the company and this is one of the
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reasons he is leaving. if you are going to go out, why not go out on top? amazon sides first quarter of $100 billion in sales. it is likely getting to the next $200 billion is going to be less fun for bezos. in that context, it makes sense why now would be the time he steps down. but there are some realities which perhaps have pushed him out sooner than he would have liked. i know this is a problem all three of us would like to have. that is bezos' wealth. part of the reason he is able to have the steady growth in wealth is because of the various companies and projects he has undertaken. he has the washington post, the company blue orion. i put elon musk's wealth here which surpasses bezos. part of the reason he is stepping down he says is to concentrate on passions like blue orion. in terms of what he leaves behind, one of the biggest
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things to deal with will be the antitrust lawsuits. unions going after amazon for its treatment of blue-collar workers. amazon faces five antitrust lawsuits between the federal trade commission, between various states, eu, canada, india, all looking into amazon. there have been strong words saying we need to break up these monopolies. a big task to deal with that. manus: it is a question of whether the next ceo can defend that position. great to break that down. he is still that wealthy after of course mckenzie bezos and the divorce, $38 billion. quick note, let's just remember the vaccine narrative. global infections are down 40%. martin malone tells us about the ramp-up june. -- by june. annmarie: more americans are
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getting the vaccine then are testing positive. very optimistic, but the risks are, how do you vaccinate the entire world? especially developing countries. ♪
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anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: the european open." i'm anna edwards alongside matt miller. matt: today, the markets say the reflation trade is back, with the reddit rumble out of the way , cyclical stocks outperform once again. a european equity futures point to a positive open. the cash trade is an hour away. these

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