tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 12, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
year, you will see things ramp up. >> there'll be numerous tests of the fed that the fed will have to reply to overtime. >> there is still this catch-up happening in correcting for the covid shot. >> we are, to some extent, a flying blind here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. this week, this is it. earnings this coming wednesday, retail sales thursday, and cpi tomorrow morning. tom: and all of it dovetailed on a quiet weekend, and i thought our economics friday was great. we will drive forward the linkage of inflation dynamics
with earnings guess forward. goldman sachs tepid, looking at where we are on inflation with a single-digit return model. dovetail that with morgan stanley who has a cautious view, worried about cost pressure. they are attached at the hip. jonathan: goldman sachs looking for 4300 year-end. you mentioned morgan stanley. execution risk. with the quarterly earnings about the outlook, that earnings people expect, or will it be about labor costs, margins? tom: it will be about listening to the conference calls. and i will say the conference calls are more important than they have ever been. what is the guidance linking towards inflation on the cost pressures? jonathan: big week ahead, but
seriously, big week ahead. and very excited to see lisa abramowicz. inflation, retail sales, and earnings on deck. lisa: powell really has a narrow window. we will get that are economic data, better inflation reads, or worse, depending on whether you are paying for higher prices. at what point in the year -- later in the year, june, july, august, the year-over-year comps get more complicated, but people are already projecting a 2023 that is much better. jonathan: looking at this year ahead a really complicated week. to kick things off this morning, good morning. the s&p 500, three straight weeks of gains. 4100. all-time highs. futures down negative 2/10 of 1%.
1.65 on tens right now. vaccinations in america tremendous. i will go through the numbers later in the hour. the euro-dollar leads. lisa: european improvement is key, especially when it has to do with bond yields. we are looking at a global market. if we get global reflation that is truly global in nature, then could we a seat bond yields increase meaningfully? today at 8:30, we will have bill dudley, former new york fed president, coming out in favor of less bank regulation, having to do with the lending power bleeding into the bank earnings we get starting wednesday this week. then at 1:00 p.m., the supply starts coming. $38 billion of 10 year notes. really key to see what the metrics are, how many foreign
buyers are coming in. you started see them get more interested asterisk-reward starts looking better. and then at 1:45 p.m., i am curious to see what happens here. a bipartisan group will meet with president biden to talk about the stimulus plan. how much agreement will there be on taxes? that will be the key issue. jonathan: can we look ahead to retail sales thursday? we talk a lot about cpi's through this program. we should talk about cpi a lot through this program. retail sales thursday, bank of america looking for 11.5% for the month of march. tom: you're going to get a lot of these numbers 12 months trailing. i am more interested in the quarter to quarter, week to week nuance.
-- month-to-month, i stand corrected. but i look at where we are, and the fact is it is a boom economy. it is an original economy. this is not a normal week because it is a boom. jonathan: let's bring in brian weinstein on the bloom economy -- theb oom -- the boom economy. cpi, how are you thinking about the number? brian: the numbers will start creeping higher in inflation, there is no question. but what you do not see really, if you look historically, the market is not afraid of inflation. use a high output gaps, on appointment rate still high globally. i think the market is going -- use see high output gaps, unemployment rates still high
globally. tom: where are yields now and how are they linked to the inflation call everybody is guesstimating? brian: i was thinking about that in the late 1990's and early 2000's. the 30 year tip back then was pricing 3.5% to 4% real rate, real growth, which was way too high. and breakevens fell close to where we are priced today. what is interesting is the market does not really see more inflation now than it did back then. it has been a wild ride. along the way, the markets have been stay pretty consistent on structural inflation. lisa: how do you know if the markets are wrong, especially if we get supply chain disruptions, the idea of labor shortages that people are saying are temporary as people try to restart an entire travel economy? brian: that is what i was
wondering, why i was looking back at where we used to be. i could be wrong, but what the markets are saying is the next 3, 4 years of inflation will be higher. that is priced with the fed buying a tremendous amount, half the supply of tips, so the fed has done its job in getting expectations higher. if the markets are wrong, it has to be wrong that global output gaps have to close more quickly. back then, the u.s. mortgage rate was 60%, now it is 61.5%. you have to urge the world to have enough growth to catch output gaps. right now, it feels like boom time economies, at some point, will weaken and level out. jonathan: that is what we asked vice chair clarida friday. he gave us an answer, looking at year end going into 2022.
economists may be able to wait that long, i do not think market participants can. brian: no, they will get antsy. but right before the great financial crisis in 2005, 2006, the markets were antsy, and expectations went up, but in those market pricing expectations, you never really saw consumer behavior. you never saw people saying if i do not spend this money now, the cost of goods will be higher later. it is hard to measure. the are a couple places we can see inflation expectations, but you want to see the savings rates. if people start to behave that if there money will burn a hole. we have spent the last 30 years with the opposite, with globalization. i do not think the fed is worried -- is as worried as the
markets want them to be. lisa: markets after price in a balance of risks. right now, what is more extensive, betting on inflation to overshoot or under shoot? basically buying treasuries or selling them short on the long end? brian: it has gotten harder with steeper yield curves. bringing inflation rates back to normal is more balanced, but the risk is we can still overshoot. if we get more stimulus, the stimulus being temporary, and gives people who are betting against inflation and edge, but if the government gets more aggressive, if the fed continues to tow the line around the long-term structure underpricing of inflation, we can move higher. we cannot move a lot higher, that would be overshoot, but the market believes we can get a higher ripper for sharply lower ones -- get a higher rate than
sharply lower ones. jonathan: wednesday, kicking off earnings season. breaking news across the -- crossing the bloomberg. from the people's bank of china, ant group to become a financial holding company in an overhaul. interesting that it is the central bank announcing this. tom: i agree, the pboc involved, what is extraordinary is the basic money market fund will be, in some ways, significantly reduced. you see alibaba popping on the news. it just shows how things are changing in china. it is good to have jing ulrich on with us. jonathan: did you see the response to alibaba to the record fine received? compare and contrast how a u.s.
tech company might. [laughter] after receiving a record antitrust fine from china, alibaba said we would not have achieved our growth without sound government regulation and oversight. for this, we are full of gratitude and respect. that is how you deal with regulatory issues in china, lisa. [laughter] and here in the united states, you anticipate a very different response, wouldn't you? tom: i think it is a new world. the same with the changes in hong kong we have seen and all the politics involved. over the weekend, all of the discussions and tensions between taiwan and china. and i am sorry, i will the financial to be into the political debate. jonathan: can you imagine mark zuckerberg? lisa: please, can we have another, and do more? that is what i was laughing at,
thinking about that quote and how much the pboc has their hands in big tech in china. jonathan: coming up in the 8:00 hour, looking forward to catching up with bill dudley. from new york, s&p 500, futures pulling back from all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the federal reserve jared jerome powell says the u.s. economy is at an inflection point. he said there is stronger than hiring ahead due to revising -- rising vaccinations. he warned the coronavirus is still a threat. the biden administration is a stepping up scrutiny of china's
plans for a digital yuan. some officials are concerned the move could kick off a long term bid to topple the dollar as the world's dominant reserve economy. and after china imposed a record $2.8 trillion antitrust fine on alibaba, the e-commerce giant thanked regulators for helping it grow. it helped lift a cloud of uncertainty over jack ma's internet empire. and mark zuckerberg making a massive bet, set to buy nuance communications with an equity value of about $50,000, working on ai software to help doctors catch a patient's symptoms and put them into software.
republicans meeting with him at the white house tomorrow, i think we can get somewhere, and have a much bigger infrastructure package then we were able to do under the last administration. jonathan: the republican from mississippi speaking to abc over the weekend. good morning kate alongside tom keene, m jonathan ferro. the s&p 500, three weeks of gains for the s&p. equities pullback just a little bit. down 2/10 of 1%. into the bond market, big supply on the ten-year side of things. ahead of the yields in -- ahead of that, yields in higher. let's spend about 30 seconds talking about vaccinations in america. this senior advisor to the white house anti-slapp it
the senior to the white house andy slavitt saying 500,000 more vaccinations over the record. tom: and the people who have decided not to be vaccinated, when will we run out the limit? -- let us continue. on washington, martin schenker joins us, our editor-at-large. roger wicker down from the land of mississippi. it is -- i do not see many bipartisan people being bipartisan. martin: i do not, and it is interesting that some of the main people, susan collins, not
attending. tom: why are they silent? martin: because they will not criticize their colleagues and have -- let them have their moment in the sun, but there are going nowhere near the infrastructure plan. jonathan: we thought china would be part of it, secretary blink en with strong words, why is this not affecting the republican party? martin: because it is a push on whether or not republicans can afford to show bipartisanship, even in the context of china, to support a close to $3 trillion unprecedented jobs recovery plan from biden. they just do not want to go there. jonathan: that is the optics pier 1 about the substance of this plan -- that is the optics. what about the substance of this plan? martin: republicans have
criticized this plan because it is not roads and bridges exclusively but it is an investment in human capital, so there is this real intellectual argument going on on just what is infrastructure and what is the role of government in promoting societal change? jonathan: what kind of -- lisa: what kind of pressure is there from this receipt -- the c-suite? martin: it is very interesting, because you had jeff bezos at amazon supporting a rise in the corporate tax rate to 28% and infrastructure plan. of course, he stands to benefit from infrastructure such as roads and airports. but that has not been a groundswell of corporate support. in fact, there is a pr campaign being produced for television in opposition of any increase in the corporate tax rate. lisa: let's put aside
infrastructure and look at other areas that could be bipartisan support. at noon, today there will be a meeting at the white house on infrastructure when it comes to the supply chain, when it comes to trying help, particularly the chip sector, is there bipartisan support for something to shore up supply chains? martin: sure there is, but the question is how do you accomplish it? it takes about two years to build a semiconductor plant, and that is if you get all of the agreements. republicans are definitely supportive of strengthening the supply chain and moving away from dependence on outside suppliers, but this will take time, and there is no solution. as our reporting says, there is not expected out of the semiconductor summit today. tom: who are you watching in washington? the moderates, both sides, the liberals, the conservatives, who are you watching? martin: no surprise, it is joe
manchin of west virginia. he has laid down the law -- you will not accept any change in the filibuster. he wants bipartisanship on any infrastructure plan. we will see if he holds out. with no joe manchin, there is no deal. jonathan: we have to talk about corporations getting more involved in politics. what are we learning about the latest push from corporations to include themselves in the discussion on voting rights beyond just georgia? martin: it is relatively unheard of for companies to actually band together to take a position on a controversial social subjects such as voting rights, but there were more than 100 ceo's on that zoom call this weekend, and apparently, they reached some sort of consensus about moving towards ensuring voting rights as a matter of societal importance. and so companies are being
forced to confront not just the views of their customers but of their employees, and they have to move just beyond a simple search for profits. jonathan: always great to catch up, even this early in the morning. martin schenker, bloomberg editor-at-large. that big push for corporations to involve themselves, and the consumer base is a big order that. tom: the consumer base is a big part of that, but it is fascinating how alone the pro-georgia executive and legislative branch crew is. it just continues to mount each and every day. jonathan: more and more companies under pressure to have a view on something that may be, in many ways, corporations are reluctant to have on. lisa: after the george floyd incident, there was a greater push by a lot of companies and their employees saying you guys cannot stand on the sidelines, and there was more money put
towards these efforts. yet there were a lot of people saying that is just lip service, what are you actually going to do? i wonder if it is not just consumers but shareholders, the whole esg movement, how much of that is shifting some of the political environment among corporations. jonathan: i republican talking point right now as they are willing to include themselves in big political talking points at home, are they willing to do the same in china? tom: we will see. i think it is unique to america right now. the china thing is complicated. we are pushing more on ant now. are they trying to make ant, off of alibaba -- it is a huge deal. they are talking about stopping the information monopoly. lisa: it is all about the data. jonathan: from new york city,
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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." check on the price action this monday morning. s&p 500 futures down a little bit, off by 2/10 of 1%. the nasdaq off by 1/3 of 1%. the russell down on the week, off by almost 0.5 of 1%. michael wilson talking about the underperformance of the russell compared to the s&p 500. since small caps pete last week, eight points of underperformance. the bond market, 2's, 10's, 30's, it is not just about cpi's tomorrow, it is about retail
sales thursday. bank of america looking for 11.5% month on month for the month of march for retail sales. yields in just a little bit. yields basically unchanged on the session. on fx, euro-sterling. here is the chart, year-to-date. that trend lower is the vaccine trade. the u.k., stellar effort. europe, not so much. now things are starting to change, better numbers out of europe. really good numbers out of germany. is this an inflection point? and at the very end of the chart, are we starting to see year-sterling starting to inflect higher? -- euro sterling starting to inflect higher? tom: i triangulated it to u.s. dollar, and euro-sterling has a higher standard deviation.
this is an exceptionally important interview. the last 48 hours of "surveillance," we have had terrific interviews on economics. now a must listen and must watch on china. jing railing is vice chair of global banking at jpmorgan. -- jing ulrich is vice chair of global banking at jpmorgan. how much has hong kong changed and what does it look like for the j.p. morgan company in the coming years? jing: hong kong -- i've been here for many years, and the hong kong financial markets are extremely fully and. from activity in the ipo market, many of the innovative companies from china are coming to the hong kong market to list. in terms of the recovery from
the pandemic, hong kong actually has done pretty well. if you think about it, hong kong is a city of 7 million people. altogether, i think there have been about 11,000 cases of covid since the pandemic began. these days, i think the pandemic is infinitely coming under control. economic activity is actually returning to normal, slowly but steadily. tom: with your influence, your experience, the breadth of your knowledge of the pacific rim, do you look at hong kong that it will be changed for western banking, or will he be business as usual -- will it be business as usual? jing: so far, it is business as usual. we are as busy as ever, helping our clients among the corporates and also investors. remember, china has a huge amount of liquidity as well. through the connect program between shanghai and hong kong, shenzhen and hong kong, there is
a lot of money coming to invest in world-class companies. jonathan: the equity markets really struggled over the last month or so. what is going on? jing: the equity markets in china have performed differently from the u.s. u.s. indices are near all-time highs. the china market has done very well up until february of this year. i think this has to do with the liquidity situation in china. as you know, normally, the chinese equity market performance is very much in sync with the credit cycle. -- they want to control the leverage ratio, they want to control the risk of overheating, and therefore, as they are raining and credit -- they are reining in credit, you are
seeing softening of the mainland markets. they have done well through 2020 and through january and february of this year. i think this is taking a breather. jonathan: not just big credit, but they are also reining in big tech. i think for people outside the mainland, they are struggling to -- around regulation around big tech. investors worldwide wanted to get traction and exposure to. what are you telling them now? jing: despite recent market volatility, we think of the digital economy in china is still alive and well, especially since the pandemic, the digital way of life is definitely not turning back. if you look at e-commerce, the sharing economy, payments, everything is growing in a very robust fashion. we believe the medium to long-term outlook for the large tech companies remains very
robust. lisa: although, you have to wonder which area people will invest in big tech, do you find some of your international investors are more hesitant to invest in chinese big tech because of the regulatory oversight that seems to be tightening? jing: actually, many international investors are looking at china as an asset class. they find themselves under exposed china. if you think about the next 10 years, the chinese economy will surpass the u.s. economy to become the largest in the world, but if you look at weighting of global funds of china, remains low. we are looking at financial institutions finding different ways to gain more exposure to china, both equities and fixed income securities. on the fixed income side, i know you guys talk about the 10 year treasury yield every day on your
show, china is 3.2% on the 10 year right now, so that is relatively attractive for international funds seeking to get additional yields. lisa: could you dovetail the advent of a digital yuan into the conversation, the idea that could potentially lure more money into the nation due to it being on the cusp of more modern technology? do you view it as bringing more capital? jing: i think china has been very judicious in terms of bringing capital onshore, because they do not want to much capital flooding the country, -- too much capital flooding the country, causing bubble concerns. when it comes to capital inflows and outflows, the authorities are very careful in terms of controlling what types of money comes into the country and what types of money can flow out of the country. so we are seeing, in recent
years, the gradual internationalization of the chinese currency, but there is a long way to go. in the next 10 years, china will become the largest economy in the world, but the chinese yuan is still not fully convertible in a couple accounts. it will be a steady journey of gradual opening up, and capital inflows and outflows will gradually become loosened. tom: i want to speak not so much about the politics of the moment, or, frankly, the politics of the future, but the reality that business can often lead politics. j.p. morgan provided leadership in being in taipei in 1970. explain how business and financials will interlink with politics in this delicate debate
between the mainland and taiwan. jing: i will leave the politics to politicians. we, as a firm, are very committed to the asia-pacific region, including china and the rest of the economies. as you said, we have been in the region, in some countries, over 100 years. this year, we are actually celebrating our 100th anniversary in china. we are here to serve our clients, both international clients who want more business in the region, and also local clients, who want to go global. so we are here acting as a bridge between east and west, and we are here to facilitate capital transactions both in and out of the region. jonathan: some really, really sensitive topics. we appreciate your time to comment on some of them. jing ulrich there. i think that is an example of
how delicate things still are in the region -- leave the politics to the politicians. that is not something you hear in the united states, or in europe for that matter. tom: she is so steamed in being where she is and being as consistent with deutsche bank and j.p. morgan over the year, and that was a real clinic. question after question a delicacy there, and that is a representation of mr. dimon's interest in the pacific rim. jonathan: and -- tom: are we governmentizing alibaba, is that what is really going on here? jonathan: i think that is the view of some people. regulators come down on this company hard, i think it is an example of how china's different. lisa: basically you want a chinese government that does not
want all financial data held in a company that can be used in a multitude of ways, but in all honesty, we do not have a company like alibaba in the united states. it is not analogous to some of the big tech in the united states. jonathan: cpi in america tomorrow morning. we have jobless claims thursday morning. retail sales could be the big headline number. in between, earnings in america. earnings season stateside going off wednesday. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. a taste of the price action going into the opening bell, and a couple of hours, equities down eight points in the s&p 500 -- tom: crushed -- jonathan: tom, look at where we started the year. j.p. morgan, a 4400. tom: the last hour of trading
friday, that was a moonshot. jonathan: coming up, we catch up with joshua sharfstein, johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health vice dean with vaccination numbers in america continuing to rocket. how high can they go? 4.6 million saturday. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. regulators in china told ant group to become a financial holding company that could be regulated more like a bank. that is significant guidance since they halted a record ipo. the also told aunt to rectify -- they also told ant to end information monopoly. chairman powell says the principal risk is that the
coronavirus with spread again. he also said the fed would do everything it can to support the economy as long as it takes to -- it takes. iran's head atomic officials as there was an attempt to thwart iran's nuclear process. iran began injecting uranium saturday. apple is facing a supply shortage affecting the upcoming ipad pro. there are production issues with the next generation display that is supposed to be a highlight of the new device. the new ipads are planned for production this month. bitcoin approached an all-time high today. it crossed the 61,000 dollar level, at one point just shy of a level set in month ago.
health interventions in place while vaccinating the general population. we are doing such a fantastic job of vaccinating people in this country, but we need the other tools to keep case numbers down. otherwise, we will find ourselves in a situation where we have variants springing up everywhere. jonathan: andrew pekosz there. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, m jonathan ferro. equities coming in eight points on the s&p through an all-time high through 4100 friday and a little lower down the times of 1% now. yields unchanged on the 10 year. 1.6586. the euro-dollar, 1.1918. we talked about the improvement in rollout in europe. in america, we had a 4.6 million day saturday, according to the administration, it roque the
daily record by 500,000 -- it broke that daily record by 500,000. expect that to climb even higher. tom: all good news. everybody is doing what they are doing. we are all seeing it in our families, grinding it out day by day. then there is the blunt math of experience. joshua sharfstein joins us. thank you so much for joining us. i want to go to the simple thing we have learned, which is cases are flat or even increase, at some point, increased deaths follow on. if we have cases where they are and deaths doing pretty well now where they are, what does it mean for summer with the dynamic between those two events? dr. sharfstein: we know that, in some parts of the country, we are not just seeing cases go up but also seeing hospitalizations, and i think
that is very likely going to be correlated with deaths. i think hospitalizations is in between those two things. it is possible because the more seriously at risk people are getting vaccinated, there will not be quite the association between cases and deaths we saw earlier in the pandemic, but if hospitalizations are rising, i think it is a fair bet we see deaths rising too. tom: are we prolonging pandemic agony by not having strict lockdowns? dr. sharfstein: i think if they were more intentioned towards the critical aspect of disease control here in the united states, we would have fewer cases, fewer hospitalizations, and fewer deaths. i am talking about continued, reliable mask wearing and distancing in areas we see a big resurgence, there should be reasonable restrictions on venues where we know there is
going to be a very high risk of transmission. the thing to keep in mind is community transmission drives infection. the more cases you have, the more cases you have. that is true even if people are vaccinated, because the vaccines are not perfect. the more people out there with coronavirus, the more people who have been vaccinated will get sick. lisa: can we talk about children, children suffering from the disease because they are not able to be vaccinated. how much at risk are we of the pandemic continuing and mutations with kids on vaccinated -- unvaccinated? dr. sharfstein: i think we are still seeing most of the cases in older people, older than kids. and kids are less likely to pass it on as well. if kids take precautions, wearing masks in class, then the risks are generally low. i am less worried about the kids
being a source of a huge outbreak, although certainly we know that the infection will not go away, because kids will still be able to have it, and it will take an entire society vaccination to really drive the cases low. lisa: given the record pace of vaccination in the united states, a lot of people are thinking about the post pandemic reality. i wonder about the sharing economy that was gaining so much steam, the idea of public transportation being recommended, ridesharing being the rage. can that ever come back given covid-19 never going away and possibly new iterations coming out? dr. sharfstein: i think it can come back. it depends on what happens with the pandemic. as community transmission goes down and total cases go down, people will feel a lot more confident, particularly if they are vaccinated. the variants are certainly a big question mark. there is evidence that it will
cause people to be less vaccinated, but if we do what we do, i think there are a lot of things will be able to do. the sharing economy is just one. jonathan: various polls suggest an increasing mistrust and institutions, including the cdc in the united states. it is a feeling that somehow things are being kept from people, including data on how effective these vaccines are. there is a feeling we are not being told how safely are ones we have been vaccinated, because there is a feeling certain officials and institutions believe we would then go out and do crazy things like go back to how we were before, so i am trying to understand, from your perspective, how you navigate that issue and where you stand on that debate. dr. sharfstein: the cdc is releasing a lot of data that the vaccines are actually quite effective, but they are not perfectly protective.
sometimes, people want to hear it is all safe or all unsafe. or it works completely well or it does not work at all. we have to be able to live in a gray area and realized there -- this is a highly effective vaccine, but there is a lot of coronavirus. they will be able to pass the virus to other people, so we need to keep an eye not just on ourselves but what is happening in our community and try to get a -- tried together to get the rates of transmission down -- try together to get the rate of transmission down. jonathan: we have gone through the numbers. four point 6 million according to one senior advisor of the amount of vaccinations that took place in a single day over the
weekend, but we have really aggressively widened eligibility in the country, and i think the increasing numbers are a reflection of how prepared we are but also a refraction of how much longer the line is now because people can actually line up to get it. in the next several months, how do we start to raise the questions about acceptance issues? tom: i thing there will be much more in the next 10 days. the bottom line is sometimes at the end of april in selected geographies around the nation, we run out of people who really, really want to get the vaccination. that is not here yet, but experts are suggesting end of april, early may. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro up your the nasdaq back in a big way in the last several way -- weeks.
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♪ >> we want our policy to be robust if our models breakdown. >> in the second half of the year, i think you start to see things ramp-up. >> they will be numerous tests of the fed but the fed will have to apply overtime. >> there are ketchup's -- there are catch-ups happening. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the boom is here. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. later this week, we will see the data behind the boom. tom: an incredibly important moment for a guy who is