tv Street Signs CNBC February 9, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST
hi. good morning, everybody. welcome. you're now watching "street signs." i'm louisa bojesen. >> and i'm nancy hulgrave. these are your headlines. >> european stocks relatively flat at the moment. italy, though, had been leading the way lower this morning as several big financials suspended limit down. >> the international energy agency warns a surplus of supply has worsened as the oil price steadies after another session of steep declines. >> swedbank is saying it's time for new leadership as they
announce the ceo will be leaving the bank with immediate effect, sending shares lower. >> and tailwinds for vestas after beating expectations as they raise their sales forecasts. hi, everybody. good morning and welcome to "street signs." what a 24 hours. >> what a difference a day makes, really. investors really just trying to get a grasp of whether or not they want to get in for a relief bounce or whether the downturn is still going to go further after we did see those sharp losses, particularly in japan. >> absolutely. almost feels like we're now back to being led by what's taking place out of europe to some extent. at least that's what it felt
like in yesterday's session when looking at some of those european banking stocks out there, many of them being delicately bought back up this morning. we're pretty flat on our european markets here. >> that's right. just about a half hour into the open, we got a bit of a reversal to the downside. once again, we're in positive territory. just very modest gains. keep this in perspective. yesterday we saw the pan european selloff. a lot of this was due to weakness in the banks. overall, we continue to see this safe haven trade. let's take a look at how the markets are faring one by one here. the ftse 100 has largely been the only one in the green. now moving higher by 0.3%. the xetra dax joining in positive territory, up 0.1%. getting a rebound there in deutsche bank. the french cac 40 off 0.1%.
now let's look at the moves in the u.s. yield curve. we did see this incredible safe haven trade moving markets yesterday. still getting yields in positive territory. the two-year yield sinking to lows not seen since october. >> so a bit of a reversal. a little bit of selling in some of these safe haven trades that were so prominent. european yields, we've seen borrowing costs rising there as well, hitting levels not seen since 2013. so essentially, we're seeing some pretty big moves out there. we've seen selling in periphery european debt while buying back into some of the more traditional safe haven debt. the yield on the german two-year hitting record lows. right now we're kind of repositioning a little bit, as you maybe would expect following these huge moves that have been
seen. when looking at this safe haven buying, gold continuing to catch a bit. we saw the biggest daily gain yesterday since december of 2014 on gold. we're currently a little lower in that commodity right now. despite this, goldman sachs saying they remain bearish on gold on rising rate expectations. we're back to that old nugget of an argument. the iea warning that overdemand is bigger than what it forecasted this past month. so wti and brent both trading higher at the moment. $30 and a bit and $33 and a bit when it comes to these. you were talking about what had been taking place in asia overnight. just to fill you in on japan, very sharp moves seen on the japanese marks. the ten-year japanese government
bond yields turning negative for the first time ever. and the yen hitting its highest level against the dollar since november of 2014. that, in turn, helped the nikkei to close down by more than 5%. the biggest one-day percentage fall seen since june of 2013. nomura was leading declines there. dropped as much as 8% within the market open. the asset selling, the safe haven buying scene across all asset classes. >> that's right. interesting to note the moves in nomura because the japanese banks and australian banks were one of the weakest performers. this taking its cue from the weakness in financials we saw in europe yesterday. as you can see, getting a little bit of a bounce here, up just about a quarter of a percent. this after the overall index fell quite sharply both in the european session and u.s. we're getting some stock specific news within the sector today. that includes swedbank, where
the ceo will be leaving the lender with immediate effect after the company announced, quote, that it's time for new leadership. the current head of swedish banking will now serve as acting ceo. we will be speaking with her at 11:30 cet. you do not want to miss that one coming up. meanwhile, let's give you a check on deutsche bank with shares rebounding. of course, this stock a big focus in yesterday's trade after it plunged almost 10% on monday. this was largely to do with fears that the bank's credit default protection soared. a lot of traders on wall street were citing these concerns about deutsche bank. as you can see, some of those banks leading those losses in the u.s. were morgan stanley, down almost 7%. that was its largest one-day drop since 2012.
louisa? ye >> yeah, let's continue along the lines with what's happening in some of these banks. shares of banca di milano rising. "squawk box" spoke to the ceo and asked him for the latest on merger rumors as the italian banking sector is pushed toward consolidation. >> we have reacted a bit better than others. there's more advantage in a change ratio with other potential merger bank. we have to see what is the potential business plan, what are the synergies of a potential merger and understand it's important. >> let's talk more about the banking sector.
frances francesco, good to see you. listen, i don't want to put words in your mouth, so let me start with a basic question. what do you think is happening? and what do you think is happening in particular for some of these banks? >> obviously the market is very worried about a slow consolidation process in italy. then it spread probably to other areas of europe because the problem is not only in italy. certainly in italy there is a specific problem. we didn't clean up the system as in many other countries. on the other side, you see in those jurisdictions as well you find banks that are no longer able to make money. so there is a bigger concern from the investors because the banking system as a whole in europe is not making money.
>> how do you solve the npl problem without seeing an unhinging of the entire european banking sector? >> well, the npl problem at the moment is concentrated in italy. maybe in other areas of the periphery you have the problem as well. in italy, it's a problem that will take time. regulators know it will take time, years probably. we are not in the position of doing cleanup as in other countries because you cannot transfer all the loans to a political, let's say, price. in any case, it will take time. the ecb is very worried because they want to preserve the stability of the financial system. on the other side of the market, doing projections because they will be forced to sell loans on a sell price, which is quite
unrealistic. certainly there might be banks that will need further capital increases. it's going to be painful, obviously, for the shareholders. >> so you see some opportunities in the italian banking sector. what are your thoughts when we move over to the german banking sector? deutsche bank really sparking fears, particularly when it came to that rush of buying of cds. are you surprised by that move? or are investors seeing something, warning signs perhaps, about the credit quality here? >> i think in the case of deutsche bank, you have to remember they have a large derivative. you never know, are they buying protection against the fault of a bank or protection against a counterparty, which is probably one of the problems. on the other side, in the case of a few large banks like
deutsche bank, very active in trading, you know the regulatory framework nowadays is not particularly favorable for them. they're really struggling to find an alternative business model. they are promising we'll do more in wealth management. every bank is promising they will do more in wealth management. and it's not a particularly underdeveloped or noncompetitive business. it's difficult for the market to say, okay, everybody will move to wealth management. will they do a ton of money and make up for lost profits elsewhe elsewhere? very strange. >> in a very crowded space, you're saying there's room for revenues. it raises the question, of course, which bank to you think is best positioned to get into that space? >> well, certainly banks who have a large footprint have an advantage. on the other side, they're
already well positioned in europe especially. obviously the ones that have the right position to move in other jurisdictions in emerging markets probably they have a chance to make up for lost profits elsewhere. >> francesco, thank you very much for being with us this morning. listen, get involved here from the top of the show so we can get your e-mail questions and comments to our guests. you can find us on twitter. @cnbcstreetsigns. @nancycnbc. @louisa bojesen. you can find us on e-mail as well. a lot going on today. >> that's right. also, of course, keeping the eye on oil prices here. this comes as the iea report says the short-term risk to the downside in the oil market has actually increased. according to the latest report, that is. and the energy agency is warning that the surplus of crude supply over demand in the first part of 2016 was greater than previously thought. let's give you a check on how oil prices are faring. not really reacting to that
line. brent crude actually rebounding, up about 1.6%. wti crude moving much higher in the neighborhood of 3%. let's bring in head of the oil industry and markets division at iea. neil, pleasure to have you with us this morning. we're just looking through the lines of the iea report. once again, warning on supply. when does this supply glut fade? >> well, we have been warning about the surplus, the supply over demand, for some time now. on the current number, unless nothing changes, it's very difficult to see the supply glut easing until the early part of 2017. so we're seeing continued surpluses of supply over demand throughout 2016. >> and one other thing the iea mentions here, of course, is the recent talk we've seen about opec, non-opec members potentially coming together. time and time again, this really proves to be a false dawn. do you think we could ever get to this stage where we have the likes of the non-opec players
reaching a deal here? >> our colleagues at the iea, we're not in a position of advising opec whether they should or shouldn't meet. i think the consensus is that it is highly unlikely that there could ever be a successful and indeed enforceable deal between the members of opec and the leading non-opec producers. there's always lots of talk about it. often you see a reaction in prices to that talk and speculation. but it is very, very unlikely it will happen. so we are going to continue with the underlying surplus of supply over demand that we in the iea are seeing for the rest of 2016. >> as supply continues to appear to be the chief issue, but when you look at what's happening in the global market space, fresh fears of recession in several parts of the world, is it possible that demand could weaken even more than many expect? >> that's possible, yes. obviously we're going to have to wait and see if the turmoil that we're seeing this week is a wobble or it turns into something rather more
fundamental. obviously if the global economic outlook or the sentiment does turn, then clearly there must be risks to the strength of our oil demand forecast. for 2016, we see oil demand going up by about 1.3%, which in terms of recent history is pretty respectable. but there must be some danger to that. were that to happen and were we to degrade the demand outlook and the supply situation were to remain unchanged, then clearly there's a risk of serious downward pressure on oil prices. but we'll have to wait and see. >> so where would you say that's coming from, neil? is it still between the balance of supply versus demand, or is it due to all the other factors at play, such as opec negotiations? >> well, i mean, demand, as i said a second ago, is actually fairly respectable in terms of the recent history. it's all on the supply side. we've seen resilience from it
the high-cost producers, particularly the united states, where far more production has remained in the game, if you like, than we expected just a few months ago. now we're waiting to see if the $30 a barrel world that we're currently living in is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for a lot of those producers. meanwhile in the opec producing countries, we've seen a little bit more strength from iraq in the early part of the year than perhaps we might have expected. we have iran coming back into the market at some point during the first half of this year. and saudi arabia remains committed, it would appear from the initial data from january, to maintaining its push for market share. it's really more an issue on the supply side of the balance. >> neil, thank you very much. neil atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the iea. >> let's just give you another check on how the european markets are faring. we are getting some additional momentum here to the upside.
as you can see, the pan european stox 600 up 0.6%. we've gone in and out of negative territory. now investors looking to get in after those sharp losses we saw kicking off the week yesterday. >> just want to the update use. two passenger trains have collided in southern germany this morning. a spokesperson told nbc news that four people have been reported dead. at least 100 people have been injured. we'll keep you updated on developments on that story. and plenty more still to come on "street signs" as negative interest rates are taking their toll on financials. we speak to the ceo of handles bank about the easy monetary pollty. and while the earliest votes are in from the new hampshire primary, we'll go live to the granite state to bring you the latest there. plus, tailwinds for vestass. why one of the most beleaguered stocks is trading higher today.
hi, everybody. welcome back. you're still watching "street signs" here on cnbc. well, shares in handelsbanken have been rising higher. it said margins were under pressure due to the country's loose monetary policy. joining us on the phone is the ceo of handelsbanken. good to have you with us today. talk us through the main points from within this report. your profits do look a bit weaker, but i'm looking at a strong capital ratio at the same time. >> yeah, that's right. hi. actually, we in handelsbanken made our best results in our 144
years of history. it was, as i see it, a very strong result. we made a return on equity for a total operations to 13.5%. we are running a bank with a cost-income ratio of 45.3% and with very low credit losses. so i guess that the quarter and the year was very good for handelsbanken. >> frank, we're looking across europe now and indeed across the world, and we're seeing quite a lot of unease from within the various banking sectors. a lot of volatility out there and a lot of speculation about the health of the banks. let's face it. agai your rating stands very high, but you also live in a country where you've got negative
interest rates. how does that stack up against making money for the bank? how much are these negative rates hurting you? >> of course we have a substantial negative effect from our interest rates in several of our home markets, but the sum of what we're doing, that we're growing with low risk, the sum is positive. and that's why you see our income is up and our results are up as well. as i said, the net sum of what we're doing is very positive. when it comes to our financial strength, we have one of the highest rates among european banks. we have a rating from moody's
for aa-2. and that's because we run the bank as we do with low risk and very high stability. that means that of course we are affected with what is going on in our surroundings, but the results, historically, as i see it also in the future, we are very stable in handelsbanken. >> and frank, where specifically is that growth coming from? because we know overall the mortgage volumes increased, but significant pressure there on the margins precisely because of the negative interest rate environment. so how are you offsetting this? >> we are offsetting it by doing more business in our four nordic countries, the u.k. and netherlands. there we are growing our business. that means higher net interest income on the spending side. of course, on the other side, we
have decreased interest margins from the cost side. but then we have a very fine development within commissions. especially with management payment and advisories. there we are growing with 9% year to year. the sum of that is a positive result. >> frank, you're sounding extremely optimistic and positive on your own results. given the selloff we've seen in broader financials, do you think some of that is justified, or is it overdone at this stage? >> it's difficult to say. of course, it's very volatile. of course, there are challenges in our surroundings. they have to be handled. but if you look, say, two years ago to where we are now, i don't see that situation worse.
but of course, there are things to be had this year and the years to come. basically, when we look at the market, we are -- we're long term and we're focused on basic business when. >> frank, thank you very much for your time this morning. the ceo of handelsbanken joining us there on the phone. just a reminder as well, note to self, at 11:30 cet, we'll be speaking to the acting ceo of swedbank on the surprise announcement this morning of her predecessor's departure. we'll be speaking to her again at 11:30 cet. moving on to other corporate earnings stories out there. actelion has posted a 9% jump in earnings. profits at europe's largest
biotech was within line with forecasts. speaking to "squawk box" earlier, the ceo said that the company development was strong with a long list of new drugs in the pipeline. >> we have a fantastic pipeline because we have not mentioned that many products are moving very well into the pipeline. we have a drug for multiple sclerosis, new cardiovascular drugs. we have nine products in clinical development in addition to our pulmonary hypertension franchise. >> meanwhile, fourth quarter earnings have dropped by over 13% largely due to slinki ishri sales. but the french drug maker did say it expects 2016 earnings per share to be more stable. as you can see there, sanofi off 0.4%. vesta shares soaring after
beating top and bottom line. the company says it has a backlog of 2015 turbine orders worth almost 8 billion euros. and the world's largest tour operator said bookings to turkey this summer were down around 40%, largely due to fears over safety. the recent terror incidents in turkey and its neighboring countries have deterred holiday makers from the traditional tourism hot spots. they have reported a narrow fourth quarter loss but maintained its full year profit forecast. nevertheless, investors not liking that warning with shares off about 1.6%. let's give you a check on how u.s. futures are calling markets this morning. as you can see, a bit of a rebound. ever so modest at this stage. s&p 500 called higher by about three points. the dow jones higher by 14. the nasdaq of course has been one of the hardest hit so far this year, up about 12 points higher. >> wall street still managing to pair some of those losses that
were seen yesterday before closing. we are five hours away from the open as well. >> it's remarkable. >> it's just the norm at the moment. the norm might also be repositioning today. european equity markets relatively flat at the moment. coming up, a lot more. >> keeping the focus on earnings. an adrenaline rush for gopro investors as the extreme camera maker shares soared on the back of a licensing deal. stay tuned for those details.
several big financials are suspended. >> the international energy agency warning the supply is high. >> and swedbank says it's time for new leadership as the ceo will leave the bank with immediate effect, sending shares lower. >> and tailwinds for vestas. the danish firm raises its sales forecasts. good morning. welcome back to "street signs." what a week it's been for the markets. it's only tuesday. hard to imagine that. we did see some dramatic moves yesterday in the u.s. the dow down 400 points at one stage. nevertheless, ending sharply in the red, taking a cue from the down day in europe. u.s. markets pointing in positive territory.
if we look at futures, calling just slightly higher open for the dow jones, s&p 500, and the nasdaq as well. >> we were called lower this morning on our european equity markets. we saw relatively flattish open, slight losses. we're now seeing positivity. a slight bit of buying taking place. keep in mine, the massive drops seen in certain sectors yesterday, particularly in the banks. a lot of safe haven buying taking place across the board. citi put out a note saying the fear factor has kind of morphed. we're looking towards whether or not the central bank policies really can make a difference at this stage or whether we're heading into a worsening territory with regards to the banks. >> not just whether they can make a difference, but whether or not they're more harmful than help at this stage. if you can just take a look thereto a how these market moves
are playing out. we have the ftse 100 outperforming throughout the morning. up now about 0.7%. strength in u.k. retailers after positive data on that front. the xetra dax just about flat. we did see some gains here. relatively flat now. of course, when we talk about this incredible safe haven trade, we've been keeping an eye on the u.s. treasury yields with the ten year hitting its lowest in more than a year. the two-year yield sank to lows not seen since october. as you can see there, getting a little bit of a rebound with yields in positive territory. >> and following that, european yields we saw rising, especially in periphery europe. a bit of rejigging from what we saw yesterday. hitting levels not seen since late 2013. in other words, selling in periphery european debt while buying back into more traditional safe haven debt.
>> louisa, we have to look at what's going on with the jgbs. we had the japanese ten-year yield crossing into negativer to story for the first time ever. this is the big move of the morning. of course, in tandem with this, we have seen gains in the japanese yen, which will be a concern for central bank. as you can see, the ten-year yield just off slightly at the latest check. joining us now is the senior fixed income portfolio manager. grant, pleasure to have you with us around the desk trying to navigate this great amount of uncertainty as we're in just the second day of the week here. we were just talking a bit during the commercial break. the big question is, is this a bear market going in for real? are we seeing 2008 all over again? or is it just a blip? >> it's a great question. can you believe we're only five weeks into 2016 and the moves we've seen already are the likes we haven't seen for four, five years. i think, you know, we've had a situation in 2008 where the
quantitative easing programs came in, resolved a lot of the problems we had. it pushed growth into positive territory. and it really forced people into buying assets with a high yield. we're now in a situation where the fed have raised rates. they're not doing anymore quantitative easing. we have the bank of japan and ecb pushing us into negative rates. i think that's what setting alarm bells ringing within the market. i think investors are getting worried about the outright level of yields and taking some profits but also the volatility that's being exacerbated by these central banks. i think it will continue for our little longer. >> exacerbated perhaps by the central banks. we also have to keep in perspective when we talk about the moves we saw in the japanese market today, thin trading there due to the holiday. concerns over volatility there as well. but overall, i think this gets to the point if the safe haven trade continues, where should investors go? >> absolutely. we've seen the chinese are on
holiday this week. we'll see what happens when they come back. obviously the china story is a big concern for the global markets as a whole, as is oil. if you're looking for safe haven, if you're looking to part your cash, i think u.s. ten-year treasuries offer relatively good value. we're going to get janet yellen talking on wednesday. we'll get a little more information about the path of interest rates. i think people like to move back to things they feel comfortable and safe with. even at these yield levels, i think we could see a little bit lower in yield and prices going up. >> how about this flocking into cdss? there was a great piece this morning talking about how it sends a signal when investors do this because they're worried, it sends a signal we'll be facing a higher likelihood of default. are we going to be hearing more about coco bonds from now on? >> i think so. it's a negative feedback loop that we're getting. it's a bit of a vicious circle.
we have to think about what happens over the last five years. we had a banking crisis. the regulatory backdrop has changed dramatically. there's been an extraordinary amount of credit issuance. people have gone on a hunt for yield to buy higher yielding bonds. when they look to sell these potentially as we've seen in the last couple days, the cash market closes down pretty aggressively, and people love in to try and hedge their portfolios by using cds indices. the risk is that's a precursor for the cash market as a whole. >> you mentioned whether or not quantitative easing is making the problem better or whether it's making it worse. when you look from a fixed income perspective, keeping in mind what a massive asset class fixed income is, do you worry about the moves the central banks might make, or do you worry more about nervousness from within the banking sector, for example nervousness on
outperforming loans and more internal problems? >> i think it's a combination of both. i think they both go hand in hand in this environment, especially where yields are going more and more negative. i think the real risk is that we have a situation where central banks continue to ease as aggressively as they can. that devalues their currency. in the likes of china, if we see a big devaluation, that could export deflation back into the western world. all this stuff the fomc has done, potentially may be unwound by the china story. >> thank you, grant. thank you very much. i'm just eyeing some of your viewer e-mails. chemoth keep them coming through. we're both on twitter. grant, thank you very much for being with us. we'll get to some of those e-mails later on. let's also just mention the data that's just hitting our wires. we're just looking at a u.k. trade deficit figure widening
during the fourth quarter. they're saying it's likely dragging on economic growth. so we're looking at some of the numbers just hitting our wire. sterling against the green back on screen right now. not a huge move. >> no doubt bank of england will be eyeing the data. well, let's bring you an update on this train crash in germany. you are now looking at pictures of ambulances arriving at the scene of a crash between two passenger trains in southern germany. a police spokesman has told nbc news that four people have been reported dead and at least 100 have been injured. the accident took place near bad
aibling this morning. now in corporate news, tesla shares fell almost 9% in yesterday's trade, a further 1% in after hours trade as the electric car company notched up its worst trading day since 2014. the stock is now at a two-year low following a number of recent analyst cuts to its ratings. the company is gearing up to release fourth quarter earnings tomorrow. credit suisse is the latest to cut earnings per share forecast, based onner than expected model x sales. >> they are spending an incredible amount of money there. >> they have money, though, to spend. >> they do. but a lot of r&d money going in. the low gas prices, such a benefit to other automakers. not tesla so much. meanwhile, gopro shares had their best day since october 2014, closing up over 10% in yesterday's session. of course, this stock has been
hard hit. they'll be taking that 10% gain. the stock's average trading volume doubled after the company signed a patent licensing agreement with microsoft just on friday. the share pop gives investors some relief after gopro's 55% market value plummet over the last three months. >> is this real? are these real pictures? are you kidding me? like, this is real? >> the daredevils. >> the director saying this is actually real. this is unbelievable. >> can i catch you doing that? >> i don't care how much money -- >> bungee jump or sky dive? >> i would faint. there's no way. >> push me out. that's for sure. >> keep your feet solidly on the ground. the spotlight is shifting from tech to media when disney reports earnings after the bell today. will the force be able to lift the magic kingdom? wilfred frost joining us. much excitement about disney. >> there is indeed.
this quarter comes off the back of a 10% decline in disney shares so far year to date. of course, partly because the markets declined overall. also, partly because of cord cutting and a move away from traditional set top boxes, which disney relies on. we're expecting $1.45 earnings per share. the three main things to focus on, that cord cutting trend we've seen in particular, the espn subscriber numbers will be very important to reassure investors that that part of the pie isn't shrinking too quickly.
also, commentary around the strategic value of things like hulu. that's a smaller part of the pie, but it's growing and something they'll want to focus on. of course, the final bonus, i'm sure he'll bring up "star wars." we know how well it's done globally. so much so they did push back the release of the next "star wars" film so they can really try and milk the first one as much as possible. so disney one to watch today. back to you. >> thanks for that, wilfred. we will be tuning in for that one. great to see you. meanwhile, let's give you another check on how european markets are faring. we are seeing a bit of a mixed reaction if you look at the boards. the ftse 100 has been the underperformer throughout the morning. a lot of strength in some of the u.k. retailers after positive
data there. the other markets, another story. back in negative territory. >> and buying into gold as well. another safe haven asset. we're a little flat, a little lower on the commodity contract right now. over the past three months, higher by around 10%. outperforming a lot of other asset classes out there. hitting a level of 1193, i think i saw. a peak not seen since last june. >> our guest just yesterday expecting 1250. >> exactly. not a huge move, but it's still up. >> well, so much to come here. we're also finding out what the candidates over in the u.s. actually think about these market moves as well. coming up, the earliest votes are already in from the new hampshire primary. we'll go live to the granite state to bring you the latest on that one just after this short break.
hi, everybody. welcome back. you're still watching "street signs." good morning. >> good morning. >> all american viewers, super early for you. the former new york may yore michael bloomberg is considering a late run for the u.s. presidency. speaking with the financial times, bloomberg says he's, quote, looking at all the options. it is the first time that bloomberg has publicly stated an intention to run. we've been speculating about it. this is an intention publicly stated to run. it follows reports that the media figure could spend up to a billion dollars of his fortune on a bid. he says he finds the level of discourse and discussion, quote, distressingly banal. >> and the front runners in both parties about to respond to that one, no doubt. donald trump saying today's primary election in new hampshire is, quote, a very big day for the nation. speaking to supporters, he said it takes guts to run for
president. once again, said that money is not the issue. >> we have a big day coming up tomorrow. it's really important. so i don't want your money. a lot of these guys come in and ask for money. can you believe it? i don't want any money. i don't need money. i built a great company, like one of the great companies. i have some of the greatest assets in the world. very little debt. i don't need that. and the only reason i even mention that is that's the kind of thinking we need in the country. enough with these stupid people. that's the kind of thinking we need. >> the democratic front runner hillary clinton brought her daughter chelsea and husband and former president bill on stage for her final push before the primary. she told supporters how much new hampshire means to her, and she reached out for the youth vote. >> to all the young people who are supporting my opponent, i thank you, too. i thank you for being part of this process, for understanding the importance of getting involved in the politics of america if you want the future that you deserve. and i will say this to them, you
may not support me now, but i will always support you. and i will always have your back. and i will always work to produce results for you. >> well, meanwhile, the first new hampshire votes are in. bernie sanders and john kasich are out to an early, albeit tiny lead. dicksville notch is one of three new hampshire towns where polls are allowed to open at midnight since it has fewer than 100 residents. not sure how much it means, but tracie potts joins us from manchester, new hampshire. now we're taking the next step and the polling is starting. >> reporter: exactly. and we'll see the polls in the rest of the state open in just a few hours, louisa and nancy. what happens in dicksville notch does not always predict what the rest of the state does. there are a couple of key questions that we'll be looking
to answer with this vote today. first of all, will hillary clinton be the comeback kid again as she was eight years ago here in new hampshire when she was not favored to win and she ended up beating president obama. if she loses to bernie sanders, how much will she lose by? will it be the double-digit loss that the polls had predicted, or could she tighten that gap and lose maybe by single digits or just a few points? or could she win this state? those are key questions for the democrats. on the other side, the republicans. donald trump has this big lead. tlrs sort of a horse race going on behind that to see which of four, possibly five, republicans will come in second to trump, if, in fact, those polls are correct. ted cruz and marco rubio seem to be the likeliest candidates, but john kasich, the ohio governor, and jeb bush, the former florida governor, are right behind that by just a few points. even chris christie, new jersey's governor, could come in
second or third place. so there is quite a lot of indecision going on. as we've said, still a lot of i think decided voters or voters who are willing to switch at the last minute. the turnout here expected to be huge. the secretary of state says we're looking at half a million people in new hampshire voting today. that would be two out of three registered voters in this state. so we'll wait to see what happens, but those polls are opening in just a few hours. >> wow. voter turnout huge in iowa as well. there again leaving room for an upset. tracie, pleasure to have you with us. we'll look forward to seeing you tomorrow with the results. >> meanwhile, let's bring you up to speed with the top stories here. we've been watching this story about a train cash in germany. emergency services are at the scene. that happened around 8:00 a.m. cet this morning. a police spokesman told nbc news four people had been reported
dead and at least 100 injured. >> the u.s. chairman of the joint chiefs of staff will meet with his chinese and japanese counterparts to discuss north korea's satellite launch. the meeting was scheduled before the launch occurred this weekend. and a suspected suicide bomber who forced a plane to make an emergency landing when he blew a hole in the fuselage was supposed to be on a turkish airline flight. the bomber was sucked out when the explosion ripped a one-meter hole in the plane while it was in flight. just terrifying there. and president obama tried to calm fears about a potential outbreak of the zika virus in the u.s. saying, quote, the good news is this is not like ebola. people will not die of zika. at a white house briefing, a deputy director for the centers for disease control and prevention said she was not expecting large-scale announcements of serious zika infections inside the united states. let's bring you up to speed on these incredible market moves we've been seeing.
we saw sharp moves to the downside that were nearly halved by the close. the s&p 500 and nasdaq off in the range of 1.8% there. financials taking a beating with both morgan stanley and goldman sachs closing at their lowest levels since the spring of 2013. joining us now on these moves is the chief investment officer at andres capital management. thank you for joining us this morning. we've been looking at opening calls showing a bit of a bounce for u.s. equities. do you think the markets are oversold at this stage? >> on a short-term basis, yes. on a longer term basis, no. i think that what we're seeing is an unraveling of a bubble, frankly, and it is a bubble that
was in reality created by the fed. frankly what it was is a bubble to correct and eliminate the first bubble. we're paying the piper right now. but markets don't go straight down or straight up. for example, in the treasury market, the ten-year treasury has improved since december 31st by 50 basis points. can i see the ten year going down to historic lows of 138? yeah, i can put a scenario together for that. i don't think it's going to happen this week or next week. marks don't go down or straight up, as i said. >> let's talk sector specific here. a lot of these concerns have been on the financial sector. however, very different picture based on which bank you see. some of the fears stemming from fears over the european sector. do you see any opportunities for
banks? >> right now, no. i think there's worldwide fear with what's going on in germany with deutsche bank bank and other banks there. that's certainly clouding the picture. i mean, i think the banks are a heck of a lot more stable today than they were in '08, '09. but what's driving the market right now is fear. fear can be irrational. >> bob, do you -- bob, it's louisa. i hear what you're saying. do you think this could provide opportunity in some funny way? if we're looking at uncertainty with regards to some of the european banks that people might think, i'm going to get back into the blue chip stocks in the states. >> the answer to that is yes, but in the context of what i
think may happen here -- you know, i don't like what's going on at all. i frankly could see the equity market going down another 10% or 15%. it's a question of timing and obviously data coming in. i would give it maybe a 50/50, maybe slightly higher, chance of a recession in the united states in the next 12 to 18 months. we'll see how it all unfolds. we all have to stay data dependent. i mean, look at bank of america right now. you got to say that looks like value. but it only looks like value if we don't go down any further. >> bob, thank you very much for being with us. chief investment officer at anders capital management. here in europe, again, we thought we could have a little bit of a rough start to the session. turned out pretty benign start to the session.
we've just gone a little more negative within the last 15 minutes of trade or so. keep your eye on oil. >> and i suppose the good news here too is despite the large dropoff we saw in japanese markets and the thin asian trading session, but still, european markets seem to be taking that somewhat in stride. as you can see there, oil still in focus, moving higher. u.s. futures as well pointing to a bit of a rebound state side. that's it for today. i'm nancy hulgrave. >> i'm louisa bojesen. we'll see you tomorrow morning for another "street signs." have a lovely day.
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breaking overnight, a global market rout. japan's nikkei plunges more than 5%. >> the flight to safety, what's holding up well amid this pressure. >> and the race to the white house. new hampshire holding its first in the nation primary today, and the first votes have already been counted. it's tuesday, february 9th, 2016. "worldwide exchange" starts right now. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. i'm sara sooeisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. >> while you were