Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 16, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

12:00 pm
freeport and williams but adt rockets to the top on the news of that deal from apollo. 56% premium. you don't see that too often. not this year anyway. >> and especially for what many are saying is an old line business. an interesting deal to see on a merger tuesday. >> that does it for squawk alley. let's get back to headquaters. ♪ >> thanks. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet the starting line-up for today. joe is here along with stephanie link and jim. also with us on set is tom lee. the founder of fun strap global advisors. our game plan looks like this today. belly up. the stunning number of energy companies one man says could go bankrupt in the crude collapse. he's going to join us live to explain. the hot trade stephanie says is finally starting to pay off and whether it can continue. we begin with the hunt for the
12:01 pm
bottom in stocks. another big rally giving investors hope that maybe the worst is, in fact, behind us. our question this hour is whether any can really be trusted with a whole host of issues still worrying the markets. whether it's oil, the strength of the banks, china's credit pile. is this a punk rally we have gotten the last couple of days? >> when you get a decline in the marketplace it takes the shape of an alphabet letter. sit going to be a v in i don't think so. it's going to look more like a u. hopefully it's not an l. the first thing you want to see is stability in the marketplace. scott you're beginning to see that companies are buying back stocks. i like what's happening in the next couple of days. we want to focus on the economic data you're going to get. tomorrow you're going to get housing. tomorrow evening chinese are back. you'll get the inflation figures and let's motte fnot forget the. stability first.
12:02 pm
that's what i like. >> come a long way in a couple of sessions but it's the question that continues to haunt investors. is it going to be a sell into the rally as it has been on every occasion since we started going through this situation? >> one thing i'm certain about is volatility is going to continue. absolutely positively and what i have been doing is just paying attention to the extremes so when we get so oversold or the sediment seems so negative. every newspaper and every headline it's really are we going into a recession in what's happening internationally? it's a disaster. when you get to that point and you have portfolio managers and hedge funds derisking that gets you a nice set up. we're pretty much past earnings so we know which ones are the winners and the losers and when those stocks pull back those are the ones that you buy. >> mike is on the floor of the new york stock exchange with us today as well. mike i heard you say earlier today on squawk or squawk on the
12:03 pm
street or whatever it is that there was a high burden of proof on any rally. >> yes. >> deservedly so given the way the market has traded. >> this market has surrendered the benefit of the doubt in a lot of respects because all the rallies we had in the last six months and especially this year have been very brief. they just worked off the oversold conditions. and then that was it and they kind of pull right back. i do think though that if you look at a lot of the tactical and sentiment indicators going into last week's lows you had a little bit to hang your hat on in terms of maybe this one has a better shot than the previous ones because we got to such depths of negativity. if you look at all the polls and analyst earnings revisions. they are also really very negative in terms of upward to downward revisions so a lot of the bad news has been registered. not just in stock prices but in people's attitudes. beyond that the market has to prove that it's a little more
12:04 pm
than reflex bounces and i don't know if there's significance to the fact that we did so to defend that level of 1800 and change on the s&p 500 a couple of times now. >> let's ask tom lee that very question. what do you think? >> i think it's welcome to see people sort of give up on the market because you do want sentiment to be really negative. i do think there's catalysts in the next few months developing and i think that's why it's possible for the market to actually have a really nice rebound. not something like we've seen two 3-day rallies but six mor e mora month rallies. >> i think the bullish case is really put to the test right now. i don't think the die is cast that we have a recession. i it's a growth scare. the dollar basically peaked last
12:05 pm
year and dollar being flat year over year is taking away almost an $80 billion head wind that hit earnings last year. earnings accelerating this year and oil looks better and if high yield doesn't worsen, that's a big if, high yield should have good returns. >> why should we give it the benefit of the doubt that it won't worsen and that other issues that we remain worried about won't worsen as well? oil goes back lower. china's credit issues start to percolate. concerns over european banks. >> it's fair questions. i just want to point something out. almost every client conversation or meeting we have is okay everything is half empty. there's no half full anymore. >> you think sentiment has tipped too far. that's a tell for you that something magical is about to happen. >> i think the market has reprogrammed to a global
12:06 pm
recession bear market regime. >> goldman sachs says sell gold. systemic risks are unlikely. the market has just overdone it. sentiment has gone way too far the other way. >> i completely agree. i'll throw caution to the wind here and say that i think that the bottom is in. there's a lot of fear in the markets overall but at least partially it's centered on the banking sector. you haven't seen any fundamental weakness in the banks. you've seen jamie dimon biuying his own shares. those are signs of strength and not weakness. what the market is waking up to is the fears that have dragged it down are unfounded and at worst this is a growth scare and more likely the bull market is definitely intact. >> tom, surprisingly enough it's been health care. it's been financials that have been down year to date. i know you believe value over growth so in a recovery do you
12:07 pm
believe that the financials and health care type of sectors are leading the recovery higher? >> again. this probably makes it tough for an institutional manager right now because not only are we saying sort of the tape under pressure it really feels like there's some really good regime rotation. i think momentum was a big play but i think momentum reached a 20 year extreme. now you need to be long value which is financials. it's pharmas. there's value in every sector but it's going to be tough. >> why such a significant underperformance year to date if you see that evolving already? >> i think financials really -- they're a strange group because they're not a cyclical and they're not a defensive. so people get worried when yield curves become an issue or when they worried about global financial stability or when you start thinking about contagion of losses so i think these are the issues that hit the financials but again i think what we're seeing is who do you trust today to be independent.
12:08 pm
not independent like have a -- it's going to be the ceo of the bank buying stocks. that's a bullish signal. >> do you think the jamie dimon buy, one of the largest insider buys ever is atel. >> in my 15 years at jp morgan and chase whenever the ceos buy big and bill harrison did it when the stock was 17 those were the big bottoms. >> so tom, what about the fed? >> i think the fed has a communication problem, right? i'm not sure that their actions have been wrong but i think it's caused a lot of confusion for marks and credibility is so important. because i think the market needs to feel like the central banks globally have their backs. >> michael santolli, the dimon bottom. are we going to talk about that being the moment that ended the cycle of selling? that jamie dimon came in and
12:09 pm
bought a massive amount of stock and we're going to look back at that and say if it's good for jamie it should be good for us. >> there's a descent chance of that. when it comes to jp morgan stock. i do think a lot of other things have to go right. you have to create a perceived fire break between european bank contagion and the u.s. banks. i do think they probably did get too cheap based on what we know right now. in terms of the overall market i think in pockets stuff has gotten cheap. the overall market has not really gotten that cheap. you want to look at dow transports they have gotten a lot cheaper in the last year. the overall market is not. i go back to the other principle. you mentioned before these negatives that seem like they're around every turn. well in may of last year, in april of last year, the conversation was what could possibly get this market down? why could we worry about any of this stuff because the market shakes everything off. i think when the obvious risks are on the service that's when the market is metabolizing them.
12:10 pm
it's pricing them in and that's closer to the end of one of the risk off periods than the beginning. >> last point, we're talking growth versus value. at least that's how you're looking at the market. they have gotten cheaper. some say not cheap enough. you see more selling pressure on those types of high valuation growth oriented stocks as people try to make that transition to value. >> i think they're great businesses. i think a lot of folks got to owning them in the fourth quarter last year and we're seeing a bit of an unwind but i don't think this is as much that fang is dead as much as values going to beat fang. >> finally. >> yes and it means small caps and industrials and no one is talking about it. industrials made a big wiggle. a squiggle. they're out performing. >> we'll see you soon. >> yeah, thanks. >> jane wells has breaking news on boeing. jane. >> well, a huge win. the government accountability
12:11 pm
office ruled against a boeing lockheed challenge to the massive air force award to build the new bomber. this is probably the largest single contract that we're going to see for a long time for a program that could cost between, anywhere from 50 to $100 billion. boeing and lockheed martin protested the award to northrop. they're on the last day of when it could announce it's decision is denying the protest saying it reviewed the challenges and found no basis to abstain or uphold the protest. they concluded the technical evaluation was reasonable and consistent with the terms of the solicitation and in accordance with laws and regulations. it will not reveal the details of the challenge nor the detail of the decision because at the moment they're classified. whether or not they give up the fight or sue in court, that is not unheard of, we will have to
12:12 pm
see but for right now a contract northrop needed to have to continue being the prime contractor in the aviation military business is still belonging to northrop grumman. stay tuned. >> we will. big stocks getting a big bump there as you can see and boeing with a gain of more than 2% today. coming up, ibonds. apple prepping another multibillion dollar debt offering. why they keep adding cash to its war chest and what that move means for investors. and groupon getting a vote of confidence from alibaba. should you follow their lead? and major oil producers agree to freeze output. traders aren't buying it. what is the latest deadlines and what do they mean for the price of crude? you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here.
12:13 pm
fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. ithere was 14 of us in a four bedroom apartment. to be the first kid to buy a house... ...it's a very proud moment. whatever home means to you, we'll help you find it. zillow.
12:14 pm
12:15 pm
>> welcome back. community health systems hitting a 7 year low. the hospital operators revenue also fell short of some analyst forecasts. total hospital admissions fell by 6% throughout the quarter. shares also look at hca holdings and tenant health care and lifepoint health being helped along by the news. as a result health care facilities are one of today's worst performing industry groups
quote
12:16 pm
guys. back to you. >> do you see these numbers? >> yeah they're ugly. >> across the board. they're even worse. they have worsened since i wrote them down in my book. >> these were last year's stories with the affordable care act and getting better volumes and getting better payment terms and now it's kind of stalling out a bit so that's the problem. so i view these as trading stocks. if tenant were to come down that's the quality i need to keep an eye on. do you think they need to come down further to be attractive. >> yeah. they're coming down and falling fast. today is not encouraging. >> opposing view anybody? >> no, community health would be interesting to me but you have such a significant decline you have to wait 3 to 5 days before you step in. >> apple is tapping the bond market once again. a multibillion dollar debt offering so why is the company adding to its already large cash pile? josh joins us now live from san francisco with those details. josh. >> well, scott, apple notifying the sec that it's plan to sell
12:17 pm
bonds in as many as ten parts with the longest data bonds maturing in 30 years. right now we don't know the total sum apple is planning to raise but we should by the end of today. companies proposed 30 year bond may yield 2.15% it's going to have general corporate purchases and that would include payment of dividends under the company's capital return program. remember as of the end of last quarter apple had completed over 153 billion of that $200 billion program including 110 billion in share repurchasing. the news today shouldn't be too much of a surprise and the company's last conference call. we heard cfo say apple would be in his words very active in u.s. and international debt markets
12:18 pm
this year the last denominated bond offering was 2015. proceeds were used for capital return. apple is sitting on the cash mountain of more than 200 billion. but much of that cash parked overseas. if apple would bring it back it would pay a lot of taxes. ceo tim cook knows it's a lot cheaper to just borrow the money. back to you. >> he's been outspoken on that issue. we should not be surprised. get while the getting is good. >> why wouldn't you? it seems like the smart move to make now and the most important part is what he had at the end there. this huge cash hoard everybody is talking about is overseas. it doesn't make sense to pay those taxes. now maybe the next administration will finally be able to address some of the corporate tax issues but until then you'll have to continue to see companies like apple making these kind of decision which is is the right decision right now. >> what do you do with it? capital return or something more
12:19 pm
juicy i expect to see more going back toward the company. >> they're doing this to buy back shares. probably the way to average cost of the debt capital is going to be 3%. take the tax shield from that and it will be 2%. they're going to buy back their shares at 2.2% dividend yield at a 10% earnings yield this makes all the sense in the world. all they'll do is buy back shares with it. >> let's continue our opening conversation as to whether you think that we could actually have a meaningful move higher. we could have a significant move. if he's right and that happens does apple recover.
12:20 pm
>> they make an announcement in april anyway. so you're right at the time of when you can start to really see some shareholder value creation. the stock trades at 8 times x cash. you have the iphone 7 coming in the second half of this year. so you have some catalyst and definitely i think this is off the radar screens from a lot of portfolio managers. people are underweight this thing. it's not going to take much to move higher. >> 95, 95 joe. good buy here? >> yeah. i think the opportunity to accelerate is going to be in the coming quarter it's over the course of the remainder of the year. everyone is excited about it. >> goldman gets a big upgrade to buy or sell the investment banks the best place to be in this market? we'll debate that coming up. plus signs of life in a crucial part of the economy. stephanie link focussing on reasons to be optimistic. she will unveil the names where
12:21 pm
she sees some strength. when we come back. thanks. ♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪ cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪
12:22 pm
every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one.
12:23 pm
i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? >> let's talk more about the
12:24 pm
banks. upgraded at jp morgan today. the firm saying that the banks have excellent capitol positions. they did downgrade credit suisse to neutral. it's a result of these moves that jp morgan made. they upgrade goldman sachs to morgan stanley to overweight. >> because they're really cheap. they have gotten hit so hard. that's the biggest surprise to me so far this year is that the banks year to date down 25 to 30%. jp morgan a little different. not down as much or as cheap. jamie dimon going in. buying back his stock is a big endorsement. the stocks are cheap. i like bank of america. it's the cheapest of the big five and that's the one we're going with. >> most of the concern has been with the european banks. they have all sold off. even more dramatically than the banks here have which have gotten hammered. they have deutsche bank as their top pick. >> i said it last week and i
12:25 pm
believe it. i think that the funding from the ecb is there. the programs are in place. if the banks need the money they can access it whether it's the ltro, whatever the mechanism may be. it's there for them. they're not utilizing it. i don't see the liquidity risk that the market is talking about. >> neither do they. they say there's no liquidity crisis in european investment banks. >> there's a contraction in profits, yet. there's a contraction in profits around much of the world. so i think that i certainly wouldn't put the sell rating on european banks. deutsche bank is one. >> it's late at this point. >> bnp will work well and you talk about morgan stanley and they'll make a turn. it will be favorable for the overall trading environment. the capital markets environment. to me that takes you to the exchanges which out performed you to date. i think those names work. >> how about this call? you could talk about the upgrades to goldman and morgan
12:26 pm
stanley but deutsche is sort of the bank at the forefront of global fears. >> it has been the pinnacle that everybody is looking at. they're looking to see exactly what that particular stock is going to do and we have seen it. when we look at this thing right now it's down a little bit today but when you look at the levels where it is now we're barely back to levels a week and a half or so that were new lows. so i think a lot of people are getting excited abiliout this. i hope joe's reference is something much further down in the future and not something in the immediate term because i don't think in the immediate term we can see these banks making the sharp turn that maybe the people are trying to read through on this note. i think if you look down a year, deutsche bank will be higher. >> goldman is t top u.s. pick by the way. >> which is a good idea. >> there's been no place to hide
12:27 pm
but the important thing about the u.s. banks, the goldmans and the morgan stanleys of the world is there's been no ipos through the first of the year. that's not the way it's going to go. as the markets come back and they are coming back right now you'll see the ipo pipeline start to open up and that will help the earnings for the companies. >> i just think the valuations are discounting all the bad in oil, all the bad in terms of the markets in general. if you don't want capital markets exposure you go to bank of america or the regionals. you need the yeel curve to steepen a little bit. you have to be patient. this is not going to be a day trade thing. >> there's a lot of insider buying in those names too. not just jp morgan. >> do you have a favorite name you like? >> there's a couple of names out there. >> yeah. >> yeah. names. escaping me but i know who you're talking about. coming up big pain in big oil and it might get a lot worse before it gets better. that's according to a new report and a third of oil producers are at high risk of going bankrupt.
12:28 pm
that's right. we talk to the author of that report about where he sees the most risk and as we head to break here's a look at the s&p sector heat map. this bale of hay almost derailed the ranch. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding the owners were forced to place an emergency order of hay. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with a complete view of her finances, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it. here at the td ameritrade they work all the time.
12:29 pm
sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade.
12:30 pm
man 1: he just got fired. man 2: why? man 1: network breach. man 2: since when do they fire ceos for computer problems? man 1: they got in through a vendor. man 1: do you know how many vendors have access to our systems? man 2: no. man 1: hundreds, if you don't count the freelancers. man 2: should i be worried? man 1: you are the ceo. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems.
12:31 pm
>> here's your news update for this hour. pope francis visiting the heart of mex koico's drug trafficking company. he's set to celebrate mass with tens of thousands and to send a message about his vision for the future of the mexican church. democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton meeting with civil rights leaders in new york city. she sat down with leaders from a number of organizations including the naacp. comcast restored service after they suffered an outage across the u.s. on monday. the cause is still unknown. comcast is the parent of cnbc. monopoly is getting a make over. the new ultimate banking edition of the game eliminating paper money completely. instead using a mini atm to keep track of financial transactions.
12:32 pm
the new version hits shelves later this year. back to you. what does that mean for our kids. using that paper money to count. that's not how they're going to learn anymore. >> thanks. crude prices falling after a top oil producer agreed to freeze after production. crude and what was positive has turned negative. >> yes, that's right. good afternoon to you scott. but we are off the lows of the session. so that's a little bit encouraging. as you mentioned that headline between russia and saudi arabia to potentially freeze output is definitely what spur somd of the move today. i want to get your take on this. how long do you think the tug of war back and forth like this is going to continue between producers, what opec is going to do. what the united states does? >> it's going to last for some while and i don't know if any of it is going to be that bullish for oil right away. talk about the talks out of opec that should have been bullish for oil. oil rig counts falling that's
12:33 pm
been a continued thing so trying to figure out how to cut supply from the market is a way to get oil higher. this dollar index has fallen 4%. that should have been bullish for oil but that hasn't helped. we need to see some of the things coming together and then see it head to 35 to really just change the momentum and that outset and outlook for oil going forward. >> all right as we wait in sort of limbo here for something to happen what are the levels that we need to watch in your opinion? >> the most important level is $26.21. we may not reach it because the news today is not the details of the deal but the fact that they came to a deal and the problem with the deal is all they have done is institutionalize oversupply. yes how long is this going to last? kuwait is ready to sign on only if it lasts at least three
12:34 pm
months and then they'll discuss cutting production. so we're in the situation we're in for at least three more months and we'll see crude oil head lower during that period. >> so it's a little ways out. we'll talk more oil on the online show but we're also talking to black stone. he has two surprises for 2016 that you don't want to miss if you're trading this market. scott. >> all right. good stuff. we'll be there. thanks. staying with energy, releasing a report today saying that a stunning number of expiration and production companies are at a high risk of bankruptcy. vice chairman of u.s. oil and gas john england joins us now. thanks for coming on the show today. >> thanks for having me. >> i say stunning because you say in what appears to be a base case of 35% of all enp companies. we're talking 175 and then you say another 160 are also at risk. >> yeah. the 175 is what we think are the
12:35 pm
high risk companies. in other words it's based on high debt levels and low interest coverage ratios. so you know obviously we think those are the ones at high risk and there's a group of companies behind those that are also struggling in terms of interest coverage. so i mean, clearly this is the year of hard decisions i think for a lot of these companies. they were kind of sheltered in 2015 through hedges and access to equity and debt markets. they're going to have to make hard decisions to try to survive. >> feels like you're saying hard decisions like cut dividends. cut cap ex even further. asset sales they may not want to part with. what kinds of things are you talking about? >> yeah. i think the ones you mentioned are right. i think last year you saw companies selling some noncore assets cutting capital expenditures but we'll see much
12:36 pm
deeper cuts in capex and see selling of much more core assets. unfortunately when continued head count reductions were already seeing a lot of that here in houston and we're feeling that in our economy. so i think those are the hard decisions ahead. and i think it's time for companies to start really looking at innovating even more so to try to bring down their costs to be competitive in this environment. >> john, it's joe. talking about a very broad based list of names here. 175 and 160 beyond it. if you could break it down for us a little bit how many of these companies are you talking about that are a billion dollars plus in terms of market cap. these small micro cap type names. >> it's a mix of both. i don't have the exact break down but there is some larger players that are certainly in that bucket and those are the ones taking the hardest look right now at trying to shed assets pretty rapidly in an
12:37 pm
effort to try to meet their debt needs. >> you think if oil rebounds from here it even matters to your thesis because let's face it even if it does rebound we're not talking about the price of oil doubling for example any time soon. at least we don't think. >> yeah. i mean, i think it helps. every dollar helps right now. in terms of just the ability to survive a little bit longer and also that gives us those companies a little more time to look at the alternatives they might have both from a financing perspective as well as a cost reduction perspective so every dollar matters right now. you know, i agree i think that we're in this lower for longer for sometime now so i think that, you know, companies are certainly setting their sights for the ability to really be able to survive this at least for another 12 months in terms of the very low price environment. >> so you think what you term
12:38 pm
now as high risk at some point in the some what near future becomes highly probable? >> well, i'd say that it's highly probable that something happens with those companies. some may sell. i think, you know, we do suspect there will be a wave of m&a that comes. we actually thought some of that might have come already but it was sheltered by some things in 2015 but, you know, in 2016 we think there will be a wave of m&a coming and buyers with the stronger balance sheets see this as a real buying opportunity. >> i appreciate your time today. thanks for coming on. >> thanks for having me. >> what do you think about this? >> he's spot on and we're going to see a lot of m&a. >> i don't think it's a new concept obviously. >> right. >> the number may be more alarming than others that we heard. >> but a lot will be the microcap kinds of companies so i'm just going with high quality companies like a chevron and companies that have the wherewithal to make some
12:39 pm
acquisitions into all of this decline so i kind of sleep better at night just owning the best of breed because they're hard enough in this environment. >> jimmy. >> i like to own stocks right in this environment that are agnostic to the price of oil. i don't see the price of oil going higher. it's too easy for wells that have been drilled particularly in the shell areas that haven't been frak fracked yet but have been put on hold in this low oil environment. any time there's a bounce in oil you'll see supply quickly meet the bounce in oil. >> which one are you talking about? >> refineries like marathon petroleum or pipeline companies. they don't care about the price of oil. >> you don't think the refiner trade has come and gone? >> if anything it's come and gone the wrong way scott. the stocks have sold off on the perception wrong though it is that these stocks have exposure to the price of oil so frankly the refineries are a great buy now. >> coming up stephanie sees a lot of value in one part of the market. the trend she may be missing and
12:40 pm
the stocks she likes. that's coming up next. as we head to break a look at the dow 30 heat map. dow is having a good run of it today. up 162. it's a gain of 1%. boeing, cat, cisco leading the way. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.
12:41 pm
we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. all across the state the economy is growing,arts today. with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care,
12:42 pm
to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. that's why over 90% of the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies are turning to cognizant. our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way clinical research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing patient engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪ advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values.
12:43 pm
al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. >> here's what is coming up on power lunch. why reports of a production freeze left the markets very cold. also ahead not one, not two, but five reasons to be bullish on china. we'll challenge all of them of course and later on one why wall street pro says stocks are due for a big bounce and the company that he says that you must be invested in right now. that's all coming your way at the top of the hour. >> thanks so much. time now for the missing link. stephanie, looking at an area of the markets she thinks is finally starting to turn a
12:44 pm
corner. finally. >> i hope. i hope. >> the consumer. >> the consumer. i have been talking about this for a long time. better jobs, better wages. certainly our tail winds. oil prices being low and the consumer believing they're going to stay lower for longer so i actually have a couple of ideas but lows is the one i wanted to call out because it has gotten hit so hard this year. especially relative to home depot and i still like the housing trade. we heard from stanley black and decker. we heard from whirlpool. both companies in their earnings reports talking strongly about housing so i like that theme. this stock is trading at an 8% discount to a three year historical average. three years. not that much but i still think down this much and the spread that it's trading at relative to home depot i like the set up so it was upgraded today by jp morgan and the other ones are some of the dollar store ifs you think they were going into a recession they're a little more protected and i like dollar general. that stock is trading at 13 times forward estimates. two year estimates and i like
12:45 pm
the margin upside story there and the low end consumer. if oil prices stay lower consumers are going to go. so those are the names i like. >> here's my question for you. a agree that we're not going into a recession and sales are starting to pick up retail sales. maybe the consumer is believing that gas prices are low. don't they move up the food chain in terms of going to more mid tier luxury stores? maybe a target or nordstroms. do you think they stick with the low tier stores? >> those are the ones that are helped out. they may trade up for sure. but i'm not sure they're going from dollar general to nordstrom. >> you brought it where i wanted to go anyway. tjx and ross. you always loved these names. do you still, do you think they actually are a good trade off of this level as well? >> tj is a great story. i like ross too. i own tjx and in this
12:46 pm
environment the set up is great because you're seeing all the sales and discounting of merchandise of the department stores going right to tjx and ross stores. he has a new management team and that held back the stock but i like that story very much. >> you didn't know everyone was going to ask you a question. >> happy to help. >> are you concerned at all about the commentary that it was a very weak january? do you think that's just specific to the one month or it's the beginning of a possible trend. >> the department stores are going to have soft results. >> nordstroms this week, right? >> the stock is down a lot. expectations are low. that's not exactly where i would go in retail because i think they're vulnerable but i'd rather stay with the home improvement chains or lower end dollar stores or special tjx and ross. there's pockets that are going to do better. >> okay. coming up, icahn at 80. as the wall street titan celebrates a big birthday today we look back at his most memorable moments during a half
12:47 pm
century in the business. plus from bristol myers to micron. lots of stocks on the move today. we'll get those trades in the blitz. halftime is back after this. always obvious. opp sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.
12:48 pm
12:49 pm
carl icahn turns 80. the legendary investor still going strong after more than 50 years in the business. taking a look at what we're calling icahn through the decades and some of his more
12:50 pm
memorable moments. >> he had quite a few on the floor them. a lot them happened here on the halftime report. take a listen. >> i've lived my life from 1960s and 70s by 70s by hand shakes. i almost lost my firm a few times by hand shakes. you don't need to be a tech genius to understand to understand that e-bay has a company, paypal, that would do better without e-bay. i think there will be a major correction. it could be three years. get them off the golf course. you have to embarrass the big shots. you look for companies like this that come around maybe once a decade. maybe less than that they are just no brainers. >> everybody obviously talking about this ned flicks closeout. why was now the right time? >> i'm not in any way criticizing netflix. when we did it it was pretty much of a no brainer.
12:51 pm
it was very hard to compete. it was sort of where apple is today. i think apple has hundreds of points left in it, perhaps. i'm very concerned about the market. and i think the market is overheated. especially the high yield market. i think it's almost the duty of well respected investors to warn people, to tell people that you really are making errors. you obviously have the middle east, saudi arabia, who just keep pumping and pumping and pumping oil. that while it hurts me day to day in marking my portfolios, as you mentioned before, so i'm talking against myself here, i think it will -- it could very easily get worse. >> there he is, carl icahn a titan among traders. lets he look at some of the big deals on the long list. he started working as a wall street stock brocker in 1961. from there he formed a securities company and started to make big waves. if you move into the 1970s,
12:52 pm
icahn's first major target was tappan. i remember my parents had a tappan stove. in and bays water reality. you move into the airlines. got into the action with twa, and texaco, became the biggest share holder in the company at one point. in the 1990s we are talking about the splash he made with tobacco and food company trying to get them to split up the tobacco and snacks business. and then marvel entertainment. in the new millennium time warner and yahoo media and internet. and netflix. his push to get apple to return more money to shareholders and there is no doubt he has made a lot of money. some estimates say his funds have return 28% per year since
12:53 pm
1968, which means that if a $1,000 investment was made back then it would be world a whopping $139 million today. according to forbes he is worth about $17 billion personally. know matter your view, you have got to admit this man has done a lot and had a lot of influence over the markets over the years. remember, though, carl icahn has made mistakes. so, again, happy birthday carl icahn, you are 80 years old, and you of course have made a huge name for yourself on wall street. back over to you, scott. >> don, mostly hits. some misses along the way. still going strong. >> still. >> no signs of slowing ground. >> aggressive. we'll see how this plays out on some of the misses. are they going to be continually the misses or are those going to turn around for carl. you look at his history,
12:54 pm
incredible. >> i think one of the things that stands out for carl, when you look at some activists they might be intimidated by the size of a company. he is never intimidated by the size of a company. a company is not too big for him to get after. that's impressive. >> even with a small percentage of positions in apple, relatively speaking, or some of these others, as you say, he has been, you know, obviously, boiszerrous to try to elicit the change that he wants. >> and the other thing that's the no brainer is the gift of longevity he has been blessed with. god bless him. i hope we all get it. >> trade blitz. three trades on three stocks. bristol-myers is hire after barrons said the stock could rise 25% this year. jimmy -- not cramer. -- business toll myers. >> it is a great stock. they have this immunooncology
12:55 pm
drug that's doing very well. the only thing is it's pricey relative to the rest of the field a. 20 times this year's earnings you might look at pfizer, custom is about 12 times earnings and also has good oncology drugs for breast cancer which looks like it's on par. >> pete, micron got upgraded today. and the blue chips are having a good day. >> it is a matter of how attractive it is. you look at their analyst day. there is a lot of reasons where multiple analysts are raising targets or upgrading the stock. >> groupon. >> it's an opportunity to get out. >> hormel doesn't go down? >> it was an amazing quarter. gross margin where 500 basis points better than people expected. >> coming up, quick check of the halftime portfolios, plus trades in the second half. back after this.
12:56 pm
we're the hottest young company around but if we want to keep the soda pop flowing we need fresh ideas! >>got it. we slow, we die. >>what about cashing out? no! i'm trying to build something here. >>how about using fedex ground for shipping? >>i don't need some kid telling me how to run a business! i've been doing this for 4 long months. >>fedex ground can help us save money and deliver fast to our customers. not bad, kid. you remind me of a younger me. >>aiden! the dog is eating your retainer again. let's take a short 5-minute recess. fedex ground is faster to more locations than ups ground.
12:57 pm
12:58 pm
12:59 pm
stocks are at the highs of the day. s&p 5 hub, a gain of 27 points. the dow jones industrial average up more than 200 points, 1.2%, which takes us to our halftime leader board. geohas made another trade, joe has moved into positive territory. >> stopped at a range resource. moved into pioneer natural. bought facebook and amazon last week. >> all right. joe goes positive. makes a trade. follow all the action at cnbc.com/pro. final trades for this tuesday. >> express scripts. the contract with anthem. i'm hoping we get color on that tomorrow. >> jimmy? >> qualcomm got a upgrade and is riding hide. >> chips are tracking for the best day of the month, up more
1:00 pm
than 2%. qualcomm, micron upgrade. >> i'm tracking win. have you wchd win over the last month or week. steve within buying shares three times in a short period of time. keep an eye on the casinos. >> friday was plus 300. dow at this moment is backing it is up. "power lunch" picks it up now. and welcome to "power lunch" i'm brian sullivan along with melissa, mishal and tyler mathisen. welcome, everybody. good to have you with us on this tuesday. we kicks things off with what might be the single most important chart for your money as the dow hits its highs of the day. this the dow and wti krut oil. you will notice they are largely not moving together. stocks are pushing higher even as oil drops. this might be important. is the great decoupling finally happening? let's start things off with bob

48 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on