Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 19, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

quote
12:00 pm
lows down 45. >> talk about oil and stocks decoupling. that was just a day long phenomenon. >> we're a long way from 1812 which both are happy about. >> what a test that was. >> good weekend guys and a good week to everybody out there. simon is going to take over the half. >> and welcome to the halftime report. i'm in for scott. let's meet today's starting line-up. stephanie link, josh brown, and john. this is what our game plan looks like this lunchtime. retail rack. nordstrom the latest retailer to disappoint the street. we're shopping for bargains amid that sell off and weathering the storm in energy. our call of the day is a hand full of buy ratings on oil stocks. that debate is also ahead. but first clearly we're focused
12:01 pm
on the best week for stock since thanksgiving. right now the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq are hugging the flat line as you can see but three great days of course monday, tuesday, wednesday, begging the question, is the rally sustainable or is it a move that you should now fade? john what's your view. >> i don't know that you fade it simon but you certainly take some profits. i have been talking about that along with other panelists as far as selling call options. i'm selling covered calls into this rally. number one, premiums were higher than normal and they have come down dramatically. this time last week, the vix, the volatility me trick, 28. now hovering down in the low 20s. so you were able to rest that premium out of the market which bought you some down side protection as well as it was more than a normal market that you get.
12:02 pm
>> but why do you not believe the rally is sustainable. >> we're in a saw tooth pattern and could make a break to the upside and obviously the naysayers will say we can make a break to the down side as well. for that season i sold some big fat calls like i say into this and it's not that i don't believe it. it's that i want to insulate myself against another three or 4% to the down side. >> saw tooth pattern. >> it depends on your time frame. we're a little bit longer term so i think that you have to use the volatility to your advantage, right? you're seeing this massive continuation of interval stocks from growth stocks. we have still some what correlated to oil. you want to be buying some more value stocks so the two areas that i like, industrials and staples. there are some values in
12:03 pm
staples. not all because some of them are expensive. and at least in the interim. you can get a little more clarity on the underlying economic environment. and a little bit better clarity on oil and dollar stability. this week you had two conferences. barclays had an industrial conference. things aren't great but aren't worse and the stocks rally. you had another conference for the staples stocks and they all said things are pretty good. not so bad and they're seeing benefits from a little stabilization in the dollar as well as lower input costs so you can pick and choose in this market and find good bargains for the long-term. >> i'm in this camp long-term and i agree there's always opportunities being created and this week you have to give it to the bulls. you've got a 3.5% pull back in oil and stocks hold up even after the recent rally. that's positive activity.
12:04 pm
the nasdaq up 1.1% off the lows from this morning. s&p got down into the gap for wednesday but didn't fill it and is holding it's own as well. it's tough to be overly negative but i still believe we're in a defined down trend and i still believe 1940, 1945 area is going to be a difficult resistance level to get through. i'm not sure they'll have the conviction through there. >> why do you think it's a down trend? >> it is a down trend. we made a record high in may of 2015 and a lower high in november after rebounding from the august low. so by definition we are in a down trend. the question is to john's point is this just a trading range as he put it or is there much worse in store? i don't think anyone can be confident in either outcome at this point. it makes sense.
12:05 pm
>> it's not a fundamental view of what's going on here. >> it's not great. we're not exactly at a cheat multiple although some areas are now cheat. but overall it's not a cheat market. the fed continues to talk about hiking and at the end of the day you really have a scenario where global forces are driving a lot of what's ailing the markets and it's not anything that has to do with the u.s. and i don't know if that is over. none of the issues that we were worried about six weeks ago or four weeks ago have been addressed. >> well fundamentally i do see some bright spots. that leads me to believe this is sustainable. this is a mixed picture but this week we have seen good signs. initial weekly jobless claims have been at a low level for the last couple of weeks. prior to that there was a blip up that had we worried that the labor market was giving back
12:06 pm
recent gains. two weeks in a row makes me feel a lot more comfortable. then the production number. absent a recession that again these economic numbers make me think that's not going to happen. there's future gains ahead for this rally. doesn't mean there can't be a pause today and yesterday may be the pause that refreshes but i think we go higher from here. >> let's bring in somebody responsible for $2 trillion in assets. >> this cio of global wealth and investment management at bank of america merrill lynch. you're saying to buy old and boring music to our ears. what does it mean in practice? >> well, you know old and boring is typically good in investments. particularly if you get paid to wait. i couldn't agree more with the whole chain of conversation that just went on. all the way from john all the way on down we have more
12:07 pm
currents in the market now than the east river. the whole reason for that is we're still late mid cycle and there's a lot of confusing macro data out there. josh is correct. we're not out of the woods yet. this is as john said. this is a sharp tooth type of market which is a little sharper than a saw tooth with different directions going through it but at the end of the year you end the year higher. here's why. the economy ultimately is in this improvement factor even though we're slowing down. there's going to be more transparency that the slow down isn't a recession and that the global worries out there notwithstanding political events are ones that we can handle. what we can handle is what's in the shadow and that's the unknown and that's the negative interest rate policy and things that we're not used to and that's why multiples in the market shouldn't get up to the upside that everyone is looking for. >> chris, it's jim. just on the last point about negative interest rates what do you see the fed doing?
12:08 pm
do you see them backing off of this rate hikes per year. this year rather campaign that they're talking about? >> yeah, any charge of any central bank predominantly as you guys all know is price stability and if you're really, really just thinking about price stability they have to back off here. the likelihood of a move is slim to none. june is still in play and obviously at the end of the year is also still in play. if they come off the four hikes and they get closer to two or something less than that and you get this inch forward with the data the consumer hangs in there and this correlation trade through oil into equities or the opposite should we say. if that starts to go away stephanie is dead on with the industrial side of the equation which is they're not saying much right now. they were complaining about how the strong dollar hurt them last year. now you're starting to see that bottom and move up and we see a lot of bargains beneath the market. >> chris i know you want to own the big and boring but do you want to own the big and boring
12:09 pm
laggerts or names that lead us last year? >> this is going to sound like a cop out but it's a little bit of both. i would say that those that actually lead us last year, have corrected 20 to 30% in some cases but they're actually large first class drug companies that innovative. you want to look there and as you said before in the old tech space you want to be paid to wait while these turns become
12:10 pm
one. after week results from nordstroms. it's off it's lows but still down 1%. nordstrom as you mentioned leading the declines down by 7% due to lower fourth quarter results as well as disappointing guidance. the stock trading down since as it ran into this week. and just what i started off at the top of the show and we wrote the 5250s, the 55.
12:11 pm
the 57 calls against it. stock moved $7 in 4 days. so again the pig theory. you don't want to be a hog so if you didn't take any off the table on the run, shame on you. it's still $2 higher than where it was last week. on thursday last week. when it was 47.30. i don't know how much down side there is. we want to be really in housing
12:12 pm
and housing related detail. internet clearly and those are the areas where i think in addition to maybe some of the low end where you'll see some of the consumers benefit from lower energy prices. i have to tell you i'm impressed with walmart only being down 3% yesterday in that report where it was up 14% going into that print from its lows so i think you are going to see the low end start to benefit from the lower gas prices and that's also a place you want to be. >> ahead of the show, embrace the volatility. one analyst says it's time to be aggressive and jump back into energy. the names and the trades next on halftime. plus an extra shot of expresso. why shares could be set of a 22% rally. a rough day down on the farm. share of deer following week guidance. josh owns the name. is he sticking by it? you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity. and i'd like to... cut. so i'm gonna take this opportunity to direct.
12:13 pm
thank you, we'll call you. evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere... bob... you're a young farmhand and e*trade is your cow. milk it. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity. may not always be clear... but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach to find long term value. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
12:14 pm
12:15 pm
>> all getting by and you own some. >> good balance sheet. they are going to be around for a long time. and in fact, they had such a strong balance sheet and it's a couple of quarters ago.
12:16 pm
i like their business mix international and the u.s. and their position well for the recovery. >> josh, you own xle. >> i do and when i look at the names upgradedtoday, i would say positively bhi and howell both look exactly the same. they've made a high or low, meaning the seller stopped selling earlier than the previous downdraft. that's a positive sign and could be the beginning of a positive trend. >> starbucks initiated with a buy rating. the analyst has a $70 price target on the stop, 21% higher than where we're trading at the moment. >> fundamentally i agree with the call. now, i'm going to switch hats for a moment with josh and talk about the charts here for a second. starbucks reminds me of an awful lot of disney or netflix before they broke down. it's been choppy and sideways after a two-year up trend.
12:17 pm
fundamentally i like this company quite a bit. if it does break down, i'd be buying it. >> you know, are you worried about that as a holder? >> i am. and i'm worried a little bit about the valuation. 25 times prior estimates is too rich. >> that's not too crazy with the growth that's coming. >> that's very true. but i also think if you continue to get this momentum shift from growth into value, they may parse these names down a bit, very much like the way i feel about visa the great company, great franchise. but i think they're a little vulnerable. stack bu starbucks for the long-term, you can just hold it. they're doing great things. i like it. you've just got to be patient. >> rates including -- however
12:18 pm
the firm is not a believer and initiates that stock with a sell. >> like them. i don't own either name. pete is probably more focused on specialty pharma and biotech than i am. don't have any of it in my portfolio right now. i would like to own ibbb. i think a lot of the washout that we may have seen, i'm waiting for the opportunity to present itself there. >> that was a sympathetic noise there. >> that was steph. >> i think you want to be very selective given the political environment. i own allergan. i think that it's going to be a tough hold in the next couple of months anyway. >> teva looks terrible. both of these stocks are for
12:19 pm
sail a sale. >> coming up on the show, seeing some unusual activity in weight watchers ahead of earnings. are traders betting that oprah delivers? and the check on oil, dropping today after a record build in supply. we head to the futures pits for the trade next. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision,
12:20 pm
or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. where self-proclaimed ofinancial superstars , pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy.
12:21 pm
with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. frank abagnale. convicted felon and con man. that was a long time ago. you know, they made a movie about it. you were shown to be quite skilled at fraud. times change. now i help catch the bad guys. me too. i help banks detect fraud by applying cognitive analytics to public financial records and social media. so if somebody said, "catch me if you can...?" we can. let's do a sequel. it could be a buddy movie. i would like to have a buddy.
12:22 pm
can oprah actually deliver for weight watchers? we'll find out next week when the company reports earnings. in the meantime, john is looking at the options market for any signs as to what people think may happen. >> yep, simon. people are pretty bullish. they had a nice piece of news today too. but the average turnover in this stock is around 3,000 options a day on the call side, maybe even 2500. so yesterday traded over 10,300. three times normal volume. the stock coming off basically ten bucks a share recently and now making this strong run into the teens. these options, again, basically what they were doing is they were buying the 14 calls and then they were selling the 18
12:23 pm
calls against it. tells me two things. that they don't think it's just a run-away to the upside and it's a smart trader, somebody who wants to address the fact that there's high volatility into earnings as well as not putting an unlimited amount of money to the downside on the table. they just wanted to have a defined risk so they bought the 14s, sold the 18. so that's about as much upside as they see between here and the earnings. >> do you own the calls? >> i own the calls out right and the stock, bought both today and yesterday. i added two to position yesterday. the information about the prediabetes and how weight watchers could be helping folks who might otherwise be subjected to diabetes in the future. that was huge news for them. >> how long do you think you'll hold it for? >> probably up to and through the earnings next week. it's a short-term trade, yeah.
12:24 pm
>> this is a company with some seasonality to it when you think about weight watchers and when they might have the best things to say, it probably is this time of year. >> i'm sure oprah is saying it's a way of life now. >> yeah, but she's up and down like a yo-yo. >> carry on. >> if they're going to have something good to say on an earnings car, probably it's a time of year like this when people are most apt to pay attention to my figure. i pay attention to my figure all year round. >> and a magnificent figure it is as well. >> it's dad bod. it's actually called that. >> anybody else here? you're not excited, steph, by the prospect of -- >> well, i just think it's had a nice move already. i am intrigued that oprah obviously has taken a big stake in it. but i just feel like there's a lot of competition out there. there are a lot of different
12:25 pm
methods of lose weight. i'm not convinced just yet. >> she did one take. that was like wow. crude oil sliding 4% today. >> good afternoon. that's right, fouling under $30 a barrel today. this is the march crude oil. >> the two principle nations involved in that oil freeze agreement are russia and saudi arabia. they're both hemorrhaging oil and putting a band-aid of it. iran won't join the agreement. iran wants to produce what they were producing presanction levels, which is about 2 million more barrels a day than it is now. so there's not the full impact of oil production on the market right now. >> let's talk about crude oil volatility. we do have expiration of the
12:26 pm
march contract on monday. does that have something to do with what we're seeing today, or is it just general concern about what's happening in the marketplace. >> you do get a little bit of whippiness. $30 a barlg beirel being a nice number. besides that, griz laid out the fundamental picture. we pray gmay get a temporary ri i think the only reason the dollar is weakened recently -- that's the only reason why crude has moved higher over the last one month. the fundamental picture hasn't changed to make me a buyer. >> for more on futures head to the website futuresnowcnbc.com. coming up on the program, yahoo for sale? the tech company announcing it
12:27 pm
will explore strategic alternatives. we'll have the latest on who might be willing to make a deal now. woody allen finds a new muse. who he's teaming up with for a new film that's got hollywood and wall street talking today. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.
12:28 pm
12:29 pm
man 1: he just got fired. man 2: why? man 1: network breach. man 2: since when do they fire ceos for computer problems? man 1: they got in through a vendor. man 1: do you know how many vendors have access to our systems? man 2: no. man 1: hundreds, if you don't count the freelancers. man 2: should i be worried? man 1: you are the ceo. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems.
12:30 pm
here's your cnbc news update for this hour. a texas judge ruling that the case of ethan couch, the teenager who used an affluenza defense in a fatal drunk driving wreck, will face adult court. apple is getting an extension to argue -- the company's response in court will be due february 26th instead of next tuesday. google, facebook and dwtwitter e all backing apple in its position against the government. french fighter je ee eer je
12:31 pm
out air strikes against isis positions in syria and iraq. following the consumer product safety commission's month long investigation into the scooters. it's called on all makers and sellers to voluntarily take them off the market until they can be certified as safe or face enforcement actions. that's cnbc's news update at this hour. glad amy son didn't get one fro santa. meanwhile, yahoo is officially in play. the company announcing that finally it is exploring strategic alternatives. this has been a long time coming, josh. this is the rump of yahoo, we should make clear. it's not the stakes, is it? >> the rump versus the stakes. right. i didn't see that in analyst notes, but that's one way to put
12:32 pm
it. yahoo making some news saying that this committee of investors engaging with potential suitors. yahoo has brought on goldman sachs, jp morgan as its financial advisors. the ceo did say the company would explore strategic alternatives. she also announced a plan for the company to try and get leaner and meaner here, cutting some 15% of its work force. myer has also been facing increasing pressure from investors. they're demanding meyers sell the company. meyers reiteraadding there are strategic alternatives that could help us achieve the separation while strengthening our business. why would any company want to buy yahoo?
12:33 pm
remember, the company for all these struggles still does touch a lot of people. collectively its properties, the third most viewed on the web. some 200 million unique visitors a month. a lot of people in the meeds di companies could be interested this cross selling products and services to all those visitors. >> she said that a lot of potential buyers have been frustrated so far. it's been tough to get involved or to want to get involved. do we know names? do we know who might purchase here? >> well, listen, we had verizon ceo on cnbc talking to jim kramer and the ceo saying, listen, he thought that at the right price, with some of yahoo's assets under aol could be a good thing for investors. certainly we do know there is at
12:34 pm
least potential interest throughout. >> let's trade it round the desk. can anybody take this news and transform it into a buying opportunity given where we've been? >> i'm going to come out with a solid no there. this has been quite a soap opera. and the litany of mistakes over many many years, failed acquisitions, opportunities, the resolvolving door of ceos, i ju don't see that changing. it's not a very powerful position that yahoo finds itself in. >> anyone else? >> yeah. yahoo is a tracking stock for ali baba. it's got a correlation koe coefficient going back to 2014 of .9005. if you want to pespeculate on a take over, just understand how
12:35 pm
long the process takes, the worse the deal will be. this is not an area i want to be. >> yeah. i couldn't agree more. we talked about yesterday on the show whether or not you'd put the same amount of money, for instance $100,000 into either twitter or yahoo. nobody on the desks wanted to put it into yahoo. as far as upside, very limited i believe for many of the reasons josh just touched on. no. if you want to take a shot on a recovery play, bet on twitter, don't bet on yahoo. >> four trades on four stocks. first up, amazon buying the rights to woody allen's next film. >> look at how well it's done for netflix to have emmy award winning shows on their platform. and potentially a woody allen i
12:36 pm
would say is as big. >> as big as house of cards? >> yeah. >> really? >> it's not the repeat business, however. it's not like game of thrones or house or cards as far as bringing fresh eyeballs every week, but this is a pretty big deal for amazon to make this move. let's do john deere go. >> another difficult year ahead. >> this is one of those examples where it pays to look through the negative news right now and do your best to ignore it. actually the stock price is doing that. you've got three years in a row with negative farm incomes. that hasn't happened outside of the 1970s. i think it probably gets better from here, even if you have to wait until 2017-18. i like it. >> a busy week for
12:37 pm
semiconductors. applied materials beating now on the top and bottom line. >> the revenue speed, earnings speed, gross margins impressively beat. it was really the guidance, though. 7.5% sequential revenue growth. i like it. i prefer lamb research, especially since they are in the process of buying kla. that's the one i would be buying today. >> finally, vf coming in short on earnings and indeed short on revenue. >> they're blaming the usual suspects, a strong dollar, a warm winter that cut into winter apparel sales. the bigger trend here is that retail is really having a hard time right now. yes, we had a good retail sales figure here in the u.s. last week, but that's not enough. there seems to be no place to hide in the sector. >> speaking of no place to hide,
12:38 pm
coming up, are you curious what josh brown does when he's not on the halftime report? we were. so we sent a camera crew to follow him around all day. our findings next. lots of global events to watch for next week. one major question, will the united kingdom leave the european union? how you should position your portfolio for what could be potentially chaotic news in some assets. you're watching cnbc. we are first in business world wide.
12:39 pm
thanks. ♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪
12:40 pm
cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪ all across the state the economy is growing,arts today. with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov (patrick 2) pretty great.ke to be the boss of you? (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone.
12:41 pm
who better to be the boss of you... (patrick 1)than me. i mean, you...us. (vo) go national. go like a pro. coming up today on power lunch, are low gasoline prices finally about to make a big impact on spending in stocks? one big player says yep. see how badly air b&b and the zika virus are hitting the hotel industry. john mcafeere saying
12:42 pm
he can break into that apple phone. maybe he should get a job at the fbi. that will be interesting. ahead on the show, rail stocks on the move right now. let's head to morgan brennan for a market flash. >> rail car manufacturers trinity industries falling more than 20%. its biggest percentage loss since october 2008. the rail car maker's profit outlook for the year fell short by a wide margin based on analysts' estimates. the economy has been impacting trinity's business since last summer and the company is focused on mitigating losses. that helped push the stock down about 50% over the last 12 months. there's a battle that continues to brew there. other rail car manufacturers are falling in sympathy.
12:43 pm
all down by more than 6% apiece. huge, huge. and you know, it's a very big institutional stock. so there's just one door. and they're all trying to get out at the same time. very typical of what happens when they have bad news like there. they took their earnings forecast for the full year down about 35% and then the thin gruel they offered was, yeah, but we're more likely to be buying back a lot more shares this year. that's the good news out of the company? >> right. >> after this severe drop they're going to buy more shares back? >> well, they won't have a lot of competition. >> i'll give a contrary opinion, though. after today's decline, which i think is way over done, the stock sells at 70% of tangible book value. if you really went to liquidate the company, you'd get 100 cents on the dollar.
12:44 pm
i'm actually happy if they buy back shares at that price. that's a very good thing. it's going to be a little while before it comes back, but it's trading like it's going out of business. i don't think it's as disastrous as the price action would believe. >> who's going to buy? >> value investors. what you're looking at again is 75% of tangible book value, that is real, true value. that's hard assets that if you went to liquidate this company, you'd get more than you're paying for it now. by the way, it's still a profitable company. have you ever wondered what traders on the desk do when they're not on the show? well interestingly we followed josh brown. and that day it led us to florida. and we got to see what he's like in his natural habitat. take a look. ♪
12:45 pm
we are at the diplomat resort and spa in hollywood, florida, for the inside etf's conference. i do these types of events because it's a really great opportunity to spend a few days somewhere literally surrounded with all of the thought leaders in the industry. when you're speaking in front of 500 people, you can literally read people's expressions on their faces and it can definitely be nerve wracking. i'm good enough. i'm smart enough. and doggone it, people like me. the trick that i use is really to just go over my remarks over and over again before i go on. i would like an arnold palmer from the omelet parlor. when i come to an event like this, there's a lot of people that read my site, watch me on
12:46 pm
tv or follow me on twitter. >> i do follow josh on twitter. the humor and the knowledge that he's bringing to the table is right up my alley. >> i love when people watch the show and they come up to me and they want to hear what my cast mates are like in real life. is she really as nice as she seems? is he really as mean as he seems? >> i like halftime report because it's quick, concise and witty. and that's what we need in this business. >> it's very cool that the show has fans and they follow us on twitter and they want to talk about segments that we do. it's the best. >> josh, keep doing what you're doing and i'll keep reading the reform broker and watching you on halftime. >> that's nice. >> what do people say to you usually when they meet you? >> honestly, i've never had somebody come up to me and yell at me about something i said that didn't happen. it just doesn't happen. i mean, not yet at least. it's all good experience and especially an audience like that, people who are
12:47 pm
professionals in our industry. so it's cool that they watch, that they care what we think and that they interact with us on social media. >> thank you very much, josh. coming up, halftime on the portfolio competition. plus your money, your vote, just one day to south carolina's republican primary. >> reporter: simon, next steps in both parties' race for the white house come tomorrow. for democrats, it's nevada. for republicans right here in south carolina. want to get their hands on. if they could ever catch you. weinto a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation,
12:48 pm
inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. ♪ think of it as a seven seat for an action packed thriller.
12:49 pm
12:50 pm
the race to the white house continues to heat up with less than 24 hours now before the south carolina republican primary. john howard is in the middle of the action live from south carolina. john, take it away. >> reporter: simon, we've got a very tight race lehere in south carolina, not necessarily for first place. take a look at these republican average poll numbers. donald trump seems to have a comfortable lead. he is likely to win this race. but very close contest for second place between ted cruz, marco rubio, little bit behind that you've got jeb bush and john kasich. the order for the also rans really matters because marco rubio is trying to emerge as the serious challenger for the long run.
12:51 pm
kasich is trying to edge out jeb bush, get to ohio where he hopes to do well in the next couple of weeks. ted cruz is hoping he can finish second and turn this into a two-man race with donald trump. big stakes in potential volatility there. we know that south carolina voters decide late. the democratic side, they've got caucuses tomorrow in nevada. this was once considered very strong territory for hillary clinton. unlike iowa and new hampshire, you had a significant chunk of non-white voters. in this case latinos in nevada. a dead heat almost. hillary clinton are juwith just slight lead over bernie sanders. if he can break through there, that's really going to rattle the democratic establishment, the hillary clinton campaign. now, she hopes to come here to south carolina. their democratic primary is one week later here. she's got a substantial lead. but every time bernie sanders defies expectations and does a
12:52 pm
little bit better, nation her more nervous and poses the potential he could grow his support. so a lot of potential movement as a result of this week's contest in both parties, guys. >> although, john, the contrary seems to be as the democratic race goes on, structurally the race has become easier for clinton. is that true? >> reporter: definitely, it's true, because of the changing demographics of the electorate. she's clearly stronger among african-americans than test test test. once you get some stiff competition from somebody who's got a real momentum as bernie sanders said. >> absolutely. john, thank you very much. john harwood watching those primaries in south carolina.
12:53 pm
to what extent is this impacting the market? >> i don't think the market loves the two extremist candidates, the ones leading these major state polls. but it's still early. so i don't think there is a full scale panic. by the way, that's not a minority view. some of the smartest investors in the world have come out and said something similar. howard marks just this week. you don't want to see a socialist and a fascist demagogues leading the polls, too much later in the year than this, if you do, i think there will be much more concern, that weighs on multiples. it doesn't have a fundamental impact on how companies are doing business. it can absolutely weigh on the price these companies are weighing on earnings. >> i would say there is one positive line figure you get sanders versus trump, it leads the door wide opened for an independent. i know they never win. it is possible a michael bloomberg comes in. >> don't you za dare say that name on this network. >> look, we're talking politics.
12:54 pm
>> the way you used his name. it could have gone either way. >> i want to make a point, if you are an investor, you would much rather have bloomberg than those other two. >> turning to seema mody, she has key global events. >> absolutely, worries overseas could drive price action here in the u.s. starting with britain, potentially leading the eu. prime minister cameron is trying to renegotiate the terms of its agreement. talks will continue this week, but if no deal is reached if brussels, higher chance of a sharp slowdown in the u.k. economy. analysts, fact, forecasting a 15% drop in u.k. stocks if that break hams. speaking with europe, key economic data released next week, starting with manufacturing, growth gdp numbers. if those numbers disappoint, there is a higher chance mario draghi will cut rates deeper
12:55 pm
into negative territory in that next meeting march 10th. lastly the hot spot continues to be china. the lunar new year coming to an end this weekend, which means potential volatility could pick up. all eyes on the central bank of china to see whether they will continue to weaken their currency. >> that, of course, could spell trouble for stocks, simon. >> okay, seema, thank you very much. have a great weekend in the meantime, coming up on the program, three hours left in the trading day, we're looking ahead to next week's earnings report, which include macys, l brand and j. this when c. penneys and mor.
12:56 pm
you can't predict... the market. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
12:57 pm
won't keep you up at night.n know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. with the guidance of a
12:58 pm
pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've always wanted. >> it is a tight race in the halftime portfolio challenge him today, john na jarn taking the top spot. a moment in investing history. john. >> it's a long kind of side
12:59 pm
line. a moment. you are exactly right. >> you made a trade today? >> i did. i added american airlines, aal. they were buying march 42 calls. big numbers. so since i had so much cash in the account. i decided i'll add another stock. >> the airlines did well. >> up 30 cents. i think it looks good into next week. that's what the big bet is up. >> i remember as far as the portfolio challenges concerns, you can follow all the action at cnbc.com/pro. we have lots of earnings, including big earnings. you are watching home depot and lowe's. >> macy's, j.c. penneys, all the consumers are important. i think the department stores will struggle at the hand of the home improvement companies. >> j.c. penney, excuse me, it's a stock i'm along both in the
1:00 pm
ha halftime-portfolio in real life. >> i like this as a volatile play. because of the earnings and because of the christmas shopping season, simon, so watch this one next week. >> guys, thank you very much. have a great weekend. >> that does it for us. "power lunch" begins right now. >> welcome to "power lunch" all right. we have three hours left in the trading week. stocks are mixed. pretty indecisive, considering the volatile trade we've had lately. right now the dow jones industrial averages are lower by 58 points a. decline of a third of a percent. nasdaq is higher, a third of a percent. the s&p almost not worth mentioning lower by 3 points. >> pretty much like every day, michelle, for the last year-and-a-hal

55 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on