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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  February 22, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST

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good morning. a global market rally. green arrows across the world right now. the great brexit debate heating up. new this morning, london's mayor backing a eu exit. but a group of business leaders do not agree. and decision 2016, a big weekend for hillary clinton and donald trump in the race for the white house. it's monday, february 22nd, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ 12k3w4r50 go good morning, welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. >> good to have you back.
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>> it's good to be back, sara. >> we missed you and we need you. >> i'm looking forward into diving into that. and breaking down what's happening to markets. a good start to last week. a slightly lackluster end. positive as a whole whilst i was away. the bulls looking to turn stocks again. a look at futures right now. quite significant, 200 points the dow is expected to open up, s&p by 23er nasdaq by 58 points. >> one of the big questions going into this week for the bull certainly, can the u.s. consumer carry economic growth in this country and really globally? we're going to get a ton of earnings from the likes of best buy, home depot, lowe's, jcpenney towards the end of the week. there have been questions about how strong the consumer is now, we're going to look at the earnings and guidance and see if
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they're strong to cares through. >> and as well as other earnings, european banks, hsbc this morning. much more coming out during the week. a couple weeks ago it was the european banks. financial markets best week for stocks of the year. among the big stories overnight, chinese stocking closer out higher after beijing replaced the securities top exchange. the major asian indices did close lier. the shanghai composite leaping 2.4%. japan getting leaf, up nearly 1%. and hong kong's hang seng getting 1%. hsbc posting a $1.3 billion loss. the main drag, slowing growth in china and crumbling commodity
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prices. of course, we're watching prices closely. there's a mobile congress. and oil prices are marching higher, that could be why we're seeing a big gain in future. 200-point gain. with wti crude up 3.24%. we'll see if the gains hold, wilfred. last week, we did manage to break that tight correlation a little bit. especially on friday where oil took a pretty sharp slide and stocks remained resilient. >> today seems globally a risk-on day. you've got equities up globally in the likes of the yen which have beened safe havens, that's down. generally speaking people are pretty positive. >> the other big story, lots of debate about the brexit. ahead of that, london's boris
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johnson said he'll campaign for britain to leave the european union making him the most high profile supporter of that brexit. almost half of the bosses of the ftse 100 back cameron's stay. jeff guttman joins us live from london. jeff, great to have you with us. fascinating coverage on the london debate. we've got say date, june 23rd. what are the headlines out over the weekend? >> i think the interesting thing this morning, wilfred, is the way the pound has responded to the fact that boris johnson, a london mayor, has thrown his hat into the ring with those who want to take the uk out of the e.u. we've had the biggest move. the pound is a reflection of confidence around the uk economy, as it leads up to his brexit vote which, of course is still four months away. the other is what happens to the ftse 100 here.
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and the ftse 100, of course is a composite of companies that are listed on the uk market. but in reality do not reflect the larger uk economy which perhaps might explain why we've had the uk market largely higher through most of the trading sessions since we had the markets open here in europe. its that shrugged off some of this fear that we see being expressed in the pound. but i think the story, essentially david cameron has said the 23rd of june is the date for this vote. boris johnson who will we know politically could be a contender for david cameron's job has decided that this is the time to make his stance. so this is both a story about the uk in the eu, but it is also a story, of course, about boris johnson's own political ambitions to lead the conservative party in the country. back to you. >> jeff when we look at markets,
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you mentioned the pound. you mentioned the ftse 100, if we does get that eventuality over brexit how significant would that, and britain itself would be significant leaving could that spark wider issues amongst the european bloc? >> inevitably. it's a very different question to answer. we haven't been down the road before. but we had xavier rollet on "squawk box" this morning. he's held the view that the uk's departure from the eu would lead to a domino effect for other countries in the eu to start to look at their own membership. he's said for some time, he thinks, if the uk goes, that would remove a driver of liberal economic policy within the bloc. it would remove the natural partner for germany and make it
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much harder for pro-market policies to be pursued by the bloc at large. so, his message, it would be a disaster for the uk to go for the eu. others, though, were more sanguine, neal woodford from the uk said it would be a red herring for major consequences in either direction. he says that he thinks the that the uk will survive and probably not any change in economic growth. and for europe, they would also accept exit, and continue on their merry way, growing closer together with a single currency bloc. i think at the moment, you pay your money and you take your choice. we are in uncharterted territory. back to you. >> thank you very much. is this like donald trump here, an anger situation? >> i think there's a different
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set of thoughts here. overarching for british voters, this is a sovereignty question. do the people we vote for in london and sit in westminster, do they absolutely decide the laws of the country or brussels? >> the elite populism thing. >> yes, jeff pointed it out. big falls in the pound so far in 2016 as you can see. big move against the yen in particular. and has weakened really against all the majors so far this year. >> perhaps pushing out the idea of an interest rate hike. >> june 23rd, that's the date. >> we're going to talk a lot more about it. it's a 100 or so days. back here in the states this week, full of economic data, today, you can look for flash manufacturing, pmi, tuesday, we get the case-schiller home price
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index, as well as existing home sales and consumer confidence. on wednesday, it's january new home sales. thursday, look for jobless claims and also january durable goods. friday, it's the second estimate on fourth quarter gdp on friday. as well as the december trade deficit. january personal income and february consumer confident. a lot of reach from consumer to to sentiment. fit by the way reporting, lowe's and jcpenney out on friday. >> a lot of retail numbers coming out this week. let's bring in david joy, chief market strategic at amayra prize. how sure are you in terms of getting a gauge as to how strong the u.s. economy.
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there's been lots of data where retail earnings sway your view? >> well, as you know, it's been the consumer that has really kept the u.s. economy growing here. but not so much in terms of their willingness to spend in the retail segment. so, i don't think they're going to be quite as influential as they might otherwise be. at the same time, i do think that the housing data will be very influential, as well as the income in spending data later in the week. so, maybe a little bit working across purposes here in terms of what this will tell us about the consumer. but the entire picture remaining the single most important element of the u.s. economy. if there's weakness in the consumer sector this week, that's going to put a big damper, i think, on the momentum that stocks seem to carry through towards the end of last week. >> as a u.s. investor, do we need to be worried about say potential brexit situation in june. what would it mean to the u.s.
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economy and u.s. market? >> well, i think we need to be worried tab in the sense that it created another level of uncertainty. it probably won't be a big factor in the near term. certainly, as we get closer to the date of the referendum, it's going to raise a lot of questions once again just about what is the future of the eurozone and the eu in larger terms. so, maybe not right away, but this is going to be somethielse we'll need to worry about. we'll have to watch what the polls suggest. >> david, what about political risk back home in the u.s.? what's the best outcome for markets for this presidential race? >> well, i would say if the nominees of the two major parties move a little bit more towards the middle, it seems as though it's beginning to happen on the democratic side with clinton's victory in nevada. we've got a big lead in south carolina. i suspect that will probably calm things down a little bit as far as investors are concerned.
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on republican side, obviously not yet the case. but it will be interesting to see. once the field gets narrowed down to the three really remaining candidates, how much of a lead trump maintains. right now, if you think about it, he's running with a 33% percentage of the vote, but that mean two thirds have chosen not to vote for him. so, i think there's yet a long way to go. maybe once we get through the march primaries, we'll get a better sense of that. there's no question in terms of how polarized these primaries have been, that's weighing on investor sentiments. no question it's a factor. >> david, so many cross current, so much at work here. when you look at oil, banks, high yield. all of these factor have been blame on the selloffs in the markets this year. what one do you need to see
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stabilized to perhaps see a bottom to the stocks to get in the game? >> i think in the near time, the price of equities has been so highly correlated with oil, i would say that's probably still the single most important variable here. we're getting some good strength this morning. we'll see if anything meaningful comes out of the ihs conference this week. that's going to be a real focus. in the short run, oil, i would say, secondly, i would put banks. the banks have been crushed, as you know around the globe. i think to some extent unfairly, but nevertheless, if there's a lack of confidence in the financial system, that's going to keep any legreal launch on investors. those two thing, as far as high yield goes, i think mostly the backups in spreads as they relate to the weakness in energy patch.
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i would say energy, high-end and financials there are some volatilities now. i think some of these concerns have been overdone. if you want to put money back to work i think you can find bargains in each one of those three areas. >> great stuff, david joy, thank you very much. when we come back, gadgets galore. new mobile unveiled in spain today. first, at the break, we want to hear from you, the twitter and facebook question this morning -- is political risk adequately priced into markets? get in touches with at "worldwide exchange." we're back in a couple minutes. oh remotes, you've had it tough.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." now to the mobile world congress. widely viewed as the tech deal making conference. john, good to see you out there? >> reporter: good to see you, sara, good to be on "worldwide exchange." there's a lot going on out here. one of the major changes as premium phone sales slow down, a lot of phone makers are venturing out into ad-ons to spark demand. virtual reality a big one. along those lines, mark zuckerberg made a surprise event at samsung's event yesterday evening. sort of upstaging the phone launch. zuckerberg had, of course, bought oculus as a first move of
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facebook. had a lot of people scratching their heads. htc has the vibe. lg has come out with its own virtual reality as well. samsung added this the gear 360 to its lineup. you can use it with the phone. it's got two cameras on each side. it can take a 360-degree picture of what's going on in the world around you. and then the phone is able to stitch those images to together into an immersive thing that you can then see your virtual reality headset that you have on. and it all ties together. as part of that, the first people who preordered the new samsung phone are going to get the virtual reality rig as part of the deal. so, samsung, not content to just let the phone sell itself. this time around, they're throwing in a little extra with the vr headset as part of that
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package deal trying to get those early adopters jumping into the ecosystem. trying to pull some people away from apple as well. it's not just virtual reality, hp has a new phone out that can plug into a pc dock and become a computer experience. it's something we've seen before. motorola tried something like that years ago. now with qualcomm's statistic dragon 820 chip, it's a lot more powerful. the windows 10 experience is going to be a lot more capable. more coming up along those lines. i'm going to have at&t coming up too, and brian krizanich of intel. >> it's great to hear about the innovations and connected cars. jon, i've just got toxi wonder if these people are talking about this apple versus fbi,
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with apple digging in its heels, what are you hearing about that? >> reporter: i talked to eriksson's ceo an hour or two ago. he wanted to be careful how he phrases it because there's so many different pieces. he made the point, hey, 180 countries, security say big point of their value proposition. they want to be careful about not the security. that's part of what tim cook said that 'does not want want to do. that's how tim cook sees it. i know the fbi is pushing back on that. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," the latest from the presidential campaign trail. big weekend wins to trump and clinton while jeb bush falls out of the race. the political highlights straight ahead. >> first the forecast from weather channel's jen carfagno.
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>> a lot of rain in a big chunk of the south. a big storm system in the south bringing rain and possible thunderstorms i'll say from houston atlanta. this system out here in the rockies about to dump some fresh powder for the skiers. that's the break that's going to track into the east and eventually bring rain back for the northeast. for today, we got heat. look at l.a., 81 degrees. the spring fever that everyone had across the east, sara and wilfred, that's about to change. we see temperatures are back to normal. back in the 50s an 60s in atlanta. i'm jen car nfagno for weather channel. cnbc returns. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget. introducing comcast business enterprise solutions.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." now to politics, tracie potts joins us from washington with the latest on the race to the white house, trace pi. >> hi there, we are watching the candidates sort of flip the script this week as the democrats head to south carolina. the republicans head to nevada. the exact opposite of last week. but we're also seeing on both sides, candidates are looking past this week's contest into super tuesday. >> we're just going one after another. are we going to win georgia? >> reporter: donald trump looking beyond nevada's contest to super tuesday. >> vie a big advantage. >> reporter: behind him there's a race between ted cruz and
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rubio are rubio. >> perhaps in vegas is not staying in vegas. >> reporter: rubio hasn't won a state yet but cruz isn't winning his group, evangelicals. in south carolina they voted for trump. >> there is a division and more so primary is an yo going conversation. >> reporter: the democrats are getting ready to square off in south carolina. >> if she wins big in south carolina as some people will do, then she is going to have tremendous momentum going into next weekend and the super tuesday states. i think it's a real problem to bernie sanders. >> the next president of the united states senator bernie sanders. >> we are listening for the african-american community. >> reporter: clinton is looking ahead. >> i'm in texas right now, we're reaching out to everybody. >> reporter: but they're in south carolina this weekend. and the clinton team tells us,
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the strategy for clinton is going to be distinguishing herself on gun control from bernie sanders who on one end protected gun manufacturers from being sued. clinton has got five forums set up in mothers of victims of gun violence. >> tracie potts, thank you very much for that. sa sara, i have to say, the trump plus cruz, it still only hits 50. if they can narrow down the stability it does change the shape of it. trump's only winning these things on 20%, 30%, it's not a massive win. >> correct. it's surprising people even though he's leading in the polls in south carolina just how much he got. the voter turnout was strong for the republicans. the question is, does rubio get bush's money? bush had a lot of money supporters from the stability. i think that money trail is going to be interesting to watch
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heading into nevada. >> trump is get the plurality of votes, rather than the majority? >> i've got a good must-read on trump on how he can be stopped if at all. the fbi director speaks out on the clash between apple and the government. plus, well tell you why taylor swift is supporting kesha from the tune of $240 million. stay tuned. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. herever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence. karl, don't you have fryeah, so? ng over? it stinks in here. you've got to wash this whole room are you kidding? wash it? let's wash it with febreze. for all the things you can't wash, use... ...febreze fabric refresher whoa hey mrs. webber inhales hey, it smells nice in here
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good morning. a british brawl. london's mayor backs an eu exit. but big business is coming to david camron's defense. apple versus the government. a public fight heating up over the weekend. we'll tell you why the fbi director says it's time to, quote, take a deep breath. and say choose, how they plan to replace swiping a credit card with taking a selfie. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on wnbc. ♪ . good morning, welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. let's get right to the markets. futures pointing to the positive open to the tune of around 200 points for the dow, just shy of that right now, s&p open by 22, 23 points higher. the nasdaq expected to open up by 54 points. this follows gains across the
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board in europe and asia. let's have a look at european trade right now. looking at around about 2% trade. the ftse 100 shrugging off that brexit debate and not following the pound. it's up 2.1%. asia has been higher as well. the nikkei up some 1%. shanghai up 2.4%, with the news that the security market regulator was replaced over the weekend. plenty of time for markets to digest. and also what is a brought rick on trade, wti, 30.7. >> 3% moves on oil, wti and brent. after last week, sthox the best week since back in november. there were starting to questions over whether the selloffs were overdone. the u.s. recession overdone. that's why it's so important to monitor this week not only
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economic data and consumers and earnings. big box, detail, big department stores all going to report. of course, their commentary and their conference calls on the state of the consumer is going to be widely followed. >> exactly right. among the top stories today, lots of debate over a possible brexit. david cameron has a referendum on eu membership now officially said for june 23rd. ahead of that, boris johnson said he will campaign for the eu with the british exit. but the financial times is reporting almost half of the big bosses support cameron. check out the british pound, after the boris johnson endorsement the brexit came out, it took a sharp fall. biggest decline in the last year. it's been declining for the past months. it's been extremely volatile.
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my question is, wilfred, you're an expert, after david cameron finally got the deal out of brussels why is there more nervousness about the debate? doesn't that help him? >> well it does. actually, the deal he got from brussels doesn't swing most voters' minds it just confirms that he can set the date for the referendum. the weakness is that we have a date set, june 23rd. it's very hard to seat pound rallying ahead of that because of the uncertainty that it will bring. we should say opinion polls have the main vote better than it's done for quite some time. that seems like a big gap. i'm sure that will narrow. the other point to note, not just on the british side of things if we do get a brexit seeming more likely, what does this mean for europe as a whole? europe very weak politically and economically would a brexit
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spark a wider breakdown in europe? >> that's why people say it's so dangerous. it's not a precedent we've seen before. economically, it seems like most economists will agree this will hurt the uk the most? >> i think it brings uncertainty. there's not total unanimous on that side of the decision. some argument once you get through it and free trade agreements lot of debate on that. i don't think it's a migration item. it's a sovereignty law. people want to know are the laws that govern us in the uk are they made in westminster and parliament or in brussels. >> david cameron versus boris johnson. how popular is he? >> johnson is trying to make political gain himself. he's the most high profile figure. he's not actually in the cabinet. there's a lot of minutia to
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this. michael goh is david cameron's good friend. it's going to be fascinating. >> thank you god you're back. >> glad to be back. >> it's okay. it's moving the currency market, i'm happy to talk about it. this week economic data, today look for flash manufacturing pmi. tuesday, we get the case-schiller home price index. january, existing home sales and february consumer confidence. wednesday is january's new home sales. thursday, jobless claims and durable goods. friday, it's the second estimate of fourth quarter gdp. as well as trade deficit, january personal income and february consumer sentiment. fitbit reports today, home depot and lowe's on tuesday. gape and jcpenney out on friday. >> i have to say consumer spending has been the biggest sector for earnings growth.
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the public battle between apple and fbi has been heating up over the weekend. both sides weighing in on whether the government should have the phone maker. >> the director of the fbi defending the position in a blog post writing maybe the phone holds the clue to finding more terrorists. maybe it doesn't. but we can't look the survivors in the eye and ourselves in the mirror if we don't follow this lead. it's just days after the attack but the fbi claims that the tech giant is using false arguments to protect itself. and an attorney disputes itself on abc's "this week." >> apple has helped the fbi in this investigation and in every way the law required but it has
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to draw the line in re-creating code. changing its iphone. putting its engineers and creative talents to destroy the iphone as it exists. >> apple says that building a back door, it weakens the security of all making them more vulnerable to hackers. and sara and wilfred, the fight will come together on february 22nd with a hearing in federal court. >> landon, thanks very much for that. >> it's on the front pages of every major newspaper, bursting into mainstream. what we're talking about, it's actually creating strange bedfellows because it's an a nonpartisan issue with donald trump supporting the obama administration. in other news this morning, prices at the pump keep falling.the latest lundberg survey shows gas fell to $1.71 a gallon. that's the lowest in years.
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and 56 cents lower than a year ago. the demand for gas is rising which i suppose could lead to higher prices in due course. amazon quietly raising its free shipping minimum to $45. this is for nonprime members. the minimum for books is still 25. looks like another push towards the $99 a year prime membership. >> i think that's way lower than it is in the uk. it's like 100 pounds. >> free shipping? >> i'm not sure. >> keep it coming down. that's good. in other corporate news, bank of america is launching news to borrows to let down payments of less than 3%. it usually is required for low down payment loans nap could make loans cheaper than those offered through the fha.
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bank of america cuts fha out and said the loans are backed in a partnership ship with freddie mac. and corporate america had a great tax season. new data showing a similar drop in audits of tax exempt groups as the agency deals with staffing declines. as a result, collections of auto related revenue fell. in an interview with "usa today," the irs commissioner blames budget cuts that have reduced the agency's annual funding for several years. right. let's get to what's trending in this morning's news. first up, mastercard using selfies to verify mobile payments. british users will be able to snap a selfie to validate their purchases. pilots are set in the u.s. and netherlands. the system will be available in 14 other countries by december. i have to say, i'm sad i'm not going to be in the uk to take
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part in this. selfie, allowed to take one every time you buy something. >> seriously, it's an effort to beef up security and also the sa nowing hold as it these companies place on your kargcar and declines that the companies put on your cards for an precaution. in barcelona, a new app that leads drivers pay for fuel and parking without leaving their car. visa teamed up with honda for the app. it also tells drivers where the gas is low and navigates them to the nearest pump. not getting out of your car in the middle of the freezing cold winter to have to pay for gas. >> you have to hand your card over. i guess you have to get out and pump the gas. taylor swift donated $250,000 to kesha for her legal
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battle for producer dr. luke. kesha dued dr. luke for sexual assault. the new york court ruled that kesha still cannot break they are contract. stars have spoken out in support of kesha. >> she's been add advocate for women. astronauts on the 1969 apollo mission apparently heard weird music while passing over the dark side of the moon. it was not pink floyd, i don't think. new audiotapes record that the crew heard the noise. the tapes were declassified in 2008 and now being shown on a new seriesed called "nasa's unexplained files." >> it sounds cool. when we come back, this morning's must-reads including a
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british brawl. find out why the debate over eu membership isn't as straightforward as it once was. first before we head to break, we want to hear from you on twitter and facebook question, is political risk adequately priced into markets? join the debate here on "worldwide exchange." we'll be back here with the answers and much more discussion in just a few more minutes. ♪
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good morning to you. welcome back to "worldwide
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exchange." if you're just waking up, let's get you up to speed on the asian markets. hang high leading the charge. and a risk-on day for markets globally, as you can see, 2% of gains for germany. ftse 100 shrug off news that the brexit will be coming in june. up 1.2%. all of this means u.s. equitiyi pointing to the dow of 102 points. the must-read stories, my pick is from "the new york times," frank bernie writing, the voters, they're not asking what kind of republican he is, they're not troubling themselves with what the position he said yesterday matches the position of today. they want something utterly different and utterly disruptive. he goes into the fact that not
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only is this a huge victory in south carolina. it came on the back of what pundits thought it was an awful week for donald trump. he got into a fight with the pope. he had a terrible debate performance according to the reaction on social media. and supports part of obamacare. doesn't matter, bruni says, clearly, that's not what the voters want. >> with bush dropping out, with rubio doing well again, that starts to run up. >> that is whether they can make it the convention. whether it's possible to stop trump with the momentum and numbers he's getting. >> another one from across the pond in the financial times. the one is titled concessions to britain will create a two-tier europe. writing one of the few statements about friday's agreement is that it will have little impact on the june 23
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refer referred dumb. he goes on to say, mr. munchau, it will end the idea of an every-closer union. and if the british vote to leave, the deal will become null and void. very bear risch here saying if britain gets a special deal and they vote to stay in, that puts pressure on other countries. if they vote to leave, probably even more pressure. again, with that point we've been discovering today, what does this mean for the broader eu? not just britain. and global markets. >> really, it sort of adds to the political risk as we noted in our twitter question of the day. what's interesting to watch, there's an g-20 meeting that wraps up at the end of the week in china. china has the leadership of
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g-20. one of the economic things they're discovering is some of the risks in the market right now. japan has made hints that it wants to see some sort of global deal. i wonder what headlines they'll get from brexit, trump, sanders, momentum in the polls. all of this is coming to a head. we want to hear from you and getting votes on whether it will be factored into the markets. coming up, the u.s. could be he headed for a recession. jason shenker will off ways for it. you're watching "worldwide exchange." futures up sharply.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." futures claim for a heighter street on wall street. it was a best week for stocks since november. joining us to discuss this new book "economy and the markets,
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recession proof" is jason schenker. congrats on the new book. >> thank you, good to be here, sara. >> the cover of baron's, what recession, gdp set to grow 3%. why are you talking about recession now? >> well, there are a number of data points that are really important. i think we should be looking at the asi manufacturing index. only below 38.4 for three or more consecutive months three times since the turn of the century. that's what we've seen in the 2001, the great recession and the immediate three months preceding 2001 so, you know, i think that the manufacturing sectors is contracting. oil and gas is contracting. and the warning from the fed, the fdic and the office of controller or the currency back in november highlights the contagion risk from oil and gas from the financial sector. at that point, you're really
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looking at equity indices being widely exposed from modties and financials. you've got companies pointing their cap index back already. all of these feed into higher probabilities of recession. >> jason, do you buy the u.s. bull market in this recession? the yield is pretty low even if they're meant to act as save haven assets? >> well, as i mentioned back in november, a warning about credit, leveraged oil and gas from the fed. and most importantly from the fdic which we should think about this from a bank aspect. and the credit, sectoring the bonds in. this is going to be very important. making sure you choose the right sector of bonds and higher quality investment grade, as
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opposed to high yield at this point. that's probably the safer bet. >> jason, the problem with your argument, though, is that manufacturing is only a small part of this economy. and oil and gas jobs have been fall for the last year or two. the consumer has held up. we're at two-thirds economy. do you notes have-v as much faith as others who say growth is going to hold up? >> well, you're right, the u.s. manufactures about 13% of gdp. but it is the leading indicator of the entire economy. a lot has to do with access to capital. the investment in capx, so that's true. you see capx has been falling jobs have been cut. that's true. but there were hedges. with oil going forward, now you're going to see layoffs, bankruptcies, what happens to the financial sector that's
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overdisposed to this -- what happens when the first bankruptcy happens? we barely started seeing layoffs and credit downgrades in q1, 2 and 3 gets really ugly. that sort of stuff creates contagion, creates risk, creates fear. as for retail sales, and you look at autos in the last three quarters they've been lower than during the '01 recession. lower than anytime since the middle of the great recession. so, even retail sales, excludes autos, are not great. i think that's a real problem and real risk. >> jason in the past, you've been relatively positive in the prospects of a eurozone recovery this year. are you still confident of that? and does a brexit or threat of a brexit change your view on the european recovery? >> there's a couple things. i am quite positive on the eurozone. i'm very skeptical of more quantitative easing. it took draghi a long time to
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get the first through. if you look at the eurozone, manufacturing pmi, for seven months, the eurozone manufacturing has been expanding at a better pace than the united states, right, if we compare it out ism. as for a brexit, it reminds me of what happened with the scotland referendum. it's a lot of talk. it's really interesting. it would be a complete disaster if it happened and i don't think it's going to happen. >> jason, it's worth noting that you haven't always been negative on the u.s. economy. we had a bet two years ago who would raise rates first, the fed or ecb. i said the fed, he said the ecb, he owes me dinner. >> very good. we've only got about a minute or so left. let's highlight the main things we're watching today. for me, it's sterling, which has fallen in one of its worst days. 1.3% or so.
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1.6% down, apologies. 1.4165. sa sara, after the uk election, we hit 1.67. >> i'm going to be watching the consumer section. yes, names like netflix and amazon in there, but also the retailers and consumers, it's going to be a big week of earnings for them. we'll see if that carries them through. and what they say on the conference calls. watch consumer discretionary. >> right. results of our twitter poll -- is political risk adequately priced into markets? 53%, no. does that surprise you? >> yes, as we get things like the refer reendureferendum, we o that. as we get closer to the
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elections. "squawk box" is coming up. next, very good morning to you. ♪ oh remotes, you've had it tough.
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good morning. markets starting out like last week. stocks in sharply positive territory following the best week of trading for u.s. stocks this year. and a developing story. director of the fbi making a personal plea for apple to help unlock the iphone. of one of san bernardino shooters but at the same time, an ex-nhs said no 'is right. big wins for hillary clinton. meanwhile, jeb bush calls it quits. it's monday, february 22nd,
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2016. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernin and andrew ross sorkin. we're going to start with the markets. take a look at the u.s. equity futures. if you'ring just waking up, is this something to behold. looks like the dow futures are up 180. they've been up as much as 200 points earlier this morning. this is coming after a week of gains across the board. you can see the s&p up by 21 point. nasdaq up by 51. overseas in asia, chinese stocks closing higher after beijing replaced the country's top securities regulator. this is why the viewer doesn't attempt to restore consumer confidence. nikkei up 0.9%.

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