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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 23, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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>> made it too easy, mike. >> made it too easy to change your name. >> not screen names. if you gave up mike, what would you change? >> i'd change and stay incognito. >> kayla. >> >> anything is better than tausche, frankly. >> it is a little tricky, sort of the audi auto things. >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa tonight not sure where to put your money, host trade of the year and a top technician says it's about to get even hotter. we'll tell what you it is and we'll look at the live shot of d.c. and new york where protesters are expected to gather shortly in support of apple's battle against the fbi. we're on the ground with a special report and later can you guess what company is the best performing fast carpal stock in
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the spp 5 up, here's a hint. e. coli. investors are chiaoing down, but perhaps at their peril, but, first, we start off with another volatile day in the markets. the dow selling off to the tune of almost 200 points. with the move it's now back in correction territory. the s&p 500 giving up all of yesterday's gains and the culprit, a familiar one, crude having its worst day in two weeks, falling 6% taking stocks with it. is this simply the crude reality for the market that we're in right now. keep in mind that we have inventory data tomorrow. >> had inventory data out and a huge bill and see what happens tomorrow. crude is down in the aftermarket. we will see if that holds up. the answer to your question is absolutely yes. talked about it now for months. i think it is all about crude and energy stocks and how the s&p trades. technically i think steve grasso would agree. the s&p 2 everything it needed to do once we bounced off that 1810 level. we said there's a real good chance we get up to 1950, january 28th highs and right around the boj doing negative
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interest rates. seemingly failed there. now what does it set us up for, i think it sets us up for a move towards 1865, 1870. see what happens when it gets there. trading is fluid and technically these things have done everything they should be sglog what does the ovx tell us these days, the oil volatility index? >> that's a pete thing. >> today the most important thing to me was you had the vix up and gold up and u.s. treasuries up so you had a real risk off day. we talked about this a couple days ago when the s&p was down and taking a little bit of a breather but you had all the risk off trades working. that was kind of telling me that the rally in the s&p 500, large cap equities was petering out here. today, yeah, down 1%, not a great day. failed like guy said at 1950. unless you get a bunch of closes above there, i think we're going back lower than 1865 because as we get into march, as the calendar turns, you know what everyone is going to be focused on. not about u.s. corporate earnings, the boj meeting, the
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ecb meeting and the fed meeting all in the middle of march. >> even today's session, didn't even get a bid to the so-called safe havens within the market. utilities barely higher and telecom finished lower. >> we're in no-man's-land. look the at the market, go back to guy where he pointed out the level of 1950. the 50 and 168 retracement. 2080 in the s&p. draw your lines from there. >> fibanachi. >> yeah, the retracement levels, 50 and 618 is where you sell the pop. >> okay. >> it's supposed to be 1945 to 1977. they sold them early so then that leads us to believe that we'll ratchet right back down from where we can. >> pete? >> the biggest problem we had is when you go back to the real, for instance, the financials never really participated. >> again, it was energy and materials. we talked about these leveraged areas of the marketplace, energy materials, a lot of folks, dash for trash, maybe it's short
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covering and maybe there's some panic. oil gets down to 26 and pops right back up, well above 30 and you talked about the ovx. i'll answer that. goes from 81 just in a couple of trading sessions, 81 to 67 to have 65 today and if oil stays where it is and if the numbers push oil further down expect to see the mid-70s very, very quickly. maybe as soon as the next couple of days, maybe even test that 81 level again because if oil is going to stay underneath that 30 level, for instance, let's say, for any extended period of time, i don't know how the financials are going to start working. i look to the european banks and i start getting a little bit more concerned about that. i mean, we love this last move that we've had, but when you look at the ovx going down 20% in a week and the vix going down 20% in a week, nice to see the vix where it is but can it last more than 50 days under the moving average. >> we rallied from the point that the saudis started talking about maybe a production cut. they started talking about a cut first. the market rally.
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we're at 26 and crude. now we're at 33. 34 is basically your top in crude, but now if that is off the table, if it's a freeze,es freeze isn't good enough, right back down. >> what do you do in this sort of market? >> real quick. the three reasons we rallied on that thursday, the first uae headline. that's been dismissed. the second one, you'll remember, was jamie dimon buying jpmorgan shares. a lot of things they talked about today blows a whole in that argument and deutsche bank has given up the ghost and then some. some of the reasons that they have rallied are gone. where do we go now. >> i know what dan thinks and he'll, right but got to do things in the small steps and the next thing is 1865. >> i think traders out there not to be too early on some of the tratds. >> what do you think is an early trades. >> a lot of short covering.
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you don't want to be too quick putting out shorts. the top ten stocks that make up 50% of the weight. the market cap of them is greater than the rest of the 90s in the qqq. you've lost a ton of leadership. the only leaders in the top ten are still microsoft and -- >> but it's not a short but the qs are not on a short. >> yes, it is. >> it is a short. >> you're doing like this with your hands and you're salivating, really is. >> when you see vix under 20, this is where you want to start doing long premium strategies with defined risk in a market like this that we know will be volatile. can you target march. all the volatility this year has been caused by crude and central bank and we'll get a whole heck of a lot. >> why would you want to put out the shorts now? >> being too early on this? >> a couple days ago, steve? >> that's the point. i was kind of quiet, where are you with your big 1600 call, this, that and ever. >> threw them out.
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>> be patient here. >> good thing you kept it a secret and told us two days later. >> all >> shameless. >> shameless plug. >> pete, to you though. are the qs a short within technology and what to buy, if anything? >> well, i think we're starting to get a little bit better news out of some of the chip names that we hadn't seen anything positive. >> intel is the chip name. >> let us tell him. >> it is a chip name. >> makes up like 20% of the stock. >> let him tell us what the trade. >> i'll give you two examples, cirrus logic, the big spike, very, very impressive off the 52-week highs. take a look at nvidia. if you're not just tied to some of the others in the world. >> what you've got sat 2 billion market cap company, don't care. >> i said some of the smaller runs. >> nvidia, don't care. >> why does it always have to be the biggest name in the space? >> because the pc supply chain,
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the smart supply chain, you know how much economic activity, intel went to barcelona, didn't tell us anything they are doing in mobile phones. we know that there's -- >> can cirrus and nvidia be a trade to the upside in the short term? >> what's the difference of taking an nvidia or qualcomm at an $80 billion market cap. i know where dan is going with this. >> yeah. >> he says thematically the larger ones are saying something. >> don't worry about where he's going. >> it's the same thing. >> the point is what did melissa ask me about and where do you see something hand my answer is some of the smaller names right now. it's not in intel or qualcomm but some of the other names. >> quickly, what did you trade today? >> i'm look at nvidia and looking at adding apple. disney has proved itself to hold on to technical levels. okay to get back into disney. look at the names so beaten up already, they have been the consensus names to be selling used as atms, and i think it's overdone. >> that's probably moved sideways.
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>> gold is up 15% in 2016 but when asked on the halftime report if investors should tell gold, here's what they had to say. >> absolutely. >> in terms of thinking about the clears over systemic risk, negative interest rates, oil and china. >> this gets us, gold money etf rallying. this year's hottest stays hot. >> what do you say? >> listen, i think we can squeeze a little bit more. i'm showing what you're seeing. first, let's start big picture. very long term going back to the 80s and the more recent action, it has reversed this multi-year downtrend. it reminds us of the activity that we saw in 1999. the reversal of a multi-year
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downtrend, part of a big secular base. that's what we think is going on. the long-term decline is now becoming a long-term bottom. the trading environment is much more favorable, but it is still a trading environment, so how do you play it? through the gold or through the miners, and we think it's through the miners? here's a relative relationship between the miners versus the yellow metal. miner underperformance has now reversed higher. we think that suggests miners are going to be outperforming assets between the two. let's start the gdx and here's the etf. you can see the double bottom at $12 followed by the breakout of a multi-year downtrend. >> first, the breakout point at $17. that's now going to be support on the downside. stay long above here, below there, it's going to get ugly. i think you can see symmetry. the $5 that you had in the base, get the $5 on the upside that.
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points to about 22. i think you sell it there. at that point you run into resistance earlier in 2015 that's how you trade the gold miners. >> the bottom line you think that goldman sachs is wrong? >> i do think they are wrong here. that is not my favorite area to sell right here. i think near term as a trade gold miners continue to work at $22. they are early on this call. they come out and say that at 22 i'll agree with them. >> ari, thanks. ari walled of oppenheimer. >> i had a chance to talk to jeff curry after he left the set from the new show and said that about gold, did not say that and didn't get a chance to say that about the gold miners. he actual little liked the gold miners. really interesting -- >> he said to sell gold but liked the miners. >> said he felt they could make money at where gold is going to be or consistently be. very much like when you look in the oil space. look at some of the huge names. they can still do well, some of them, at certain levels as long
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as that doesn't drop too significantly. >> i don't think gold is one of them, but having said that, going to the g-20, talked about that at the top of the show, what are you talking about, devaluing current? what is china doing, buying a lot of gold, i think gold goes higher from here. gdx is up 54% in the same time frame, gld only up 20%. if you're going to buy it, buy gdx. >> december, they bought the gdx june 15 calls. they are now $4. they paid $1.25. now they came out about a month later at the beginning of february. what did they buy, and ari just got done talking about 22. >> yeah. >> they were buying the june 22 calls as well. so he bought 40,000 of those so people somewhere, there's a huge amount of folks out there putting money down the gdx, going higher. >> your bearish scenario, is there room for gold? >> listen, we talked about mark cuban's call on gold and i thought that was an interesting one. not doing it as a hedge or inflation trade or anything like that. doing it because he thought that's where the momentum money is going to go and that's what
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pete is talking about and did out-of-the-money calls. i think if you think things are going the opposite way, if it's a risk-off environment then this trade will continue to work. to steve's point, 50% in a month is a little bit in the gdx. want to play the momentum the better risk/reward could be in the gld. less risk, maybe a good amount of reward. >> you know it's going higher. >> look, i think goldman is wrong here. i think they are absolutely wrong. they will walk in one day and i'm telling you gold can be up $50 to $100. nobody will try to explain it. gold -- on this rally from 1810 to 1945 in the s&p, gold did not sell off basically at all. it's telling you something and i think it goes higher. >> coming up, jpmorgan's jamie dimon has a simple message for investors. it's all good. we'll get through this, and that's got one of our traders flat out life yimptd you won't believe what he has to say. i wonder who that is.
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no deal for honeywell or united technologies, but we found an unusual way of screening. who could be honeywell's next match, and it's coming straight from the heart. viacom ceo making surprising comments at a media conference. what he said and why it could spark a major bidding war in hollywood. much more "fast money" still ahead. baas
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joirksz welcome back to "fast money." shares of jpmorgan taking a hit, a particularly concern, comments from the ceo about its investment bank, actually the ceo of the investment bank daniel pinto who said investment banking revenues could fall 25% the first quarter. despite the comments jamie dimon feeling pretty upbeat about the current state of affairs. take a listen. >> an awful lot of noise out there. you have to put in mind those are the financial marks you see in a little bit of disarray. sometimes they act rationally and sometimes they don't so there are pretty good odds, in my opinion that the noise will sort out and it will be okay. >> except maybe not in the first quarter when investment banking revenues could be down as much as 25%. >> i think that's a useless comment. the probability that everything
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is going to be okay. i mean, yes, that's calming and everything like that, but, listen, i think identify been saying this for a little bit here. mr. dimon is taking a page out of the "playbook" that he learned so well, that he mastered in '07, '08 and '09 and 2010, and they are not trying to riley anybody up, and if you didn't think that investment banking revenues would be down significantly this year where just the level of activity, we saw there wasn't a single ipo in january. that's the first time that happened since 2009. we know the situation with rates so the situation with the bank is not fantastic and when you think about it the stock is only down 15% on the year. it's the only major bank in the world that is not below its august lows. to me i think it plays catchup. i'm positioned that way to the downside. i think you'll see 50 very soon no matter how much stock. >> we all get where he's coming from. looking to the prism of the world falling off. >> yeah. >> of yesterday. >> but if they do recover, they also have to slide a lot more to get down to the abyss level that
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he witnessed, that we all witnessed on this desk, but if you look at it, i think you also have to nibble on a lot of these banks, nibble on the way down because you don't get a lot of shots at them. not going out of business. >> i'm not saying they are going out of business and i'm not saying it's 2008, but i'm telling you mr. dimon may not even know what's going on in europe or asia. >> totally get it. >> looking at more downside. >> that we've gotten from their earnings report. >> if you buy these, you've been rewarded, buy them on the way down. they do become trading ranges. believe we're going to 666 in the s&p. >> bank of america was a $5 stock in the summer of 2011, two years after they almost went out of business. >> he's within the range. >> tradeable ranges, and what you said before, would you be a buyer of some of these names that have run? >> right. >> these names have been so beaten up i think you would be a buyer on weakness. you don't have to invest in one single one but buy a little bit of sgleech is it positive when jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon bought the stock, stock trading
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up 53 and change and still has not gone back down to that level? >> i don't like his choice of words. i don't think it's just noise. when bank of japan, the third largest economy in the planet goes to negative interest rates to me that's more than just noise, i think. i also understand what he's saying. he believes a lot of things are transitory and the system will flush it out. we'll see. his bank is cheap. you would assume if it is a cheap he would want to buy it, that's a good sign, but that doesn't mean we'll get a little cheaper. >> but it's 53, the low. >> is it a -- are we going to look back and say that was the dimon low? because even when the head of the investment bank said revenues down 25% in this division, market revenues down, only fixed income commodities will be up for the quarter, it still didn't touch the dimon low. >> it wasn't just a small buy. even for jamie. this was a real buy. this was a significant buy i think when he stepped in. >> are you long it?
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are you long jpmorgan in. >> i'm not long jpmorgan. the only one i'm in is bank of america and to steve's point it's so discounted right now. jpmorgan trades much closer to form as opposed to bank of america. >> by the way, you're talking about, when you look at $53, when you look at $53, you're looking at support going back for years now, so there's a reason, yes, he had to be a good company man to step up and do what we had to do but he's not an idiot. no one wants to buy a stock. >> what are you talking about, worth $1 billion. >> nobody wants to lose money. you think he goes out of his house and burns his money, nobody wants to do that. >> he didn't know what was going on four years ago, stock went as low as $30. you know what the earnings were in 2012, about 5 bucks and that's where they are right now. >> are you short? >> i'm long on puts. talked about it on "options action" and on the show last week. >> that number 53 is long-term support. if that breaks, then you could see a lot lower prices in it,
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but right now there's a reason why we bought it there. >> would you buy it at 53? >> i own bank of america, would look at buying jpmorgan. if it holds 53 and starts to real, i think 53 is telling you something. >> deutsche bank calling the recent moves in chipotle stock. >> the stock has acted really well since the media blitz began and it seems to us there is a euphoria reflected in the stock's price today that's potentially extremely unrealistic in terms of what a recovery can look like. >> the stock is up 30% from its lows on january 12th so is the move we've seen overdone, guy? >> well, at 35 times forward earnings it's overdone, yes, but it appears as though all the negative press is probably a thing -- tell you what. get another negative headline on the e. coli front with chipotle and it's going to be devastating. i don't think -- i think they are past that.
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i think the stock can rally to 550. if you look. we really broke down from that level and then people talk about valuation again, saying it's too rich given the environment. i don't know for a $400 price target will hold up. that's what it is. took it from a hold to a sell but i do in theory understand exactly what they are saying. >> not just the negative headline though. all we need is another print on same-store shares that don't show a regaining of customers they lost and that could real be the measure for the stock. >> they have to show us, a, there's loyalty and, b, they will be able to turn this thing around. that's why i think when i read through that note and actually listened to what she talked about on air, i really read this as she's looking a little bit further out, and right now she's saying in the immediate, this was just an enormous move which it was, under 400 to 540 in a very short period of time. the valuation level is something that's really difficult to get your arms around. it's 35. when you've got the high valuations in a category where everybody else is trading at a 22, very, very difficult to say
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if -- if they have one more outbreak obviously forget it. >> it's over. >> but if they don't now they have to see the same store sales come back. >> i think they get a pass. >> guy's point is a bigger point. >> really? >> a lot is in the numbers. >> a rally like that, and they are going to look past same-store sales at this point? >> wouldn't it be an obvious that people aren't coming back as quick -- i think that's the least of their worries. they factored in the fact that they got past e. coli. that's the major issue. is anyone on this desk going back to chipotle? >> definitely not. >> isn't that the problem? >> i think it takes a little bit longer. >> second half story is what it is. >> exactly. >> second half storey if they avoid the headlines. >> buy domino's pizza and mcdonald's. those names have hung in there. ahead, a live shot of where protesters are getting ready to protest in support of apple's fight against the fbi. to the ground. nationwide rallies later this hour. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business
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worldwide. here's what's coming up. with the honeywell united technology mega deal dead on arrival who should honeywell look to buy to next? we'll play the industrial dating game to find four eligible takeover targets for the industrial targets. >> this is a bad show. >> you have no idea, don, but it could make you some money. plus, a number of beaten material and energy names have had big bounces. but a crucial indicator says the party is about to end. we'll tell you what it is when "fast money" returns.
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the fact of the matter is governance was always an issue. dave's done a great job at honeywell the last 15 years, no doubt about it. the thought of combining the two companies into a $100 billion behemoth, great idea, but it's not going to happen. speculating on governance and value, while it's fun and interesting and sells newspapers and tv spots, it ain't going to happen. >> that was united technology's ceo putting the kibosh on a merger between honeywell and
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united technologies. we'll play the technology dating game. let's meet bachelor number one, call him an options monster and he's known to get down and dirty with the derivatives. pete najarian. >> wow. >> mel, i'm going to go with pent air and the reason i'm going there i think this is an area they would like to expollute, honeywell, and the reason i say that is i look at everything that they want to do and i think this is an area that they could do very well and only an $8 billion company. energy exposure pushed this down. at a discount. time to buy it. >> i was going to do all of that. have you not seen "the dating game?" >> who hosts "the dating game." >> not chuck woolery. >> not chuck woolery. >> all right. >> when was the last time they were on. >> derailed already. bachelor number two, ladies call
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him the floor general because he knows how to place -- >> i want to date myself. >> welcome, steve grasso, bachelor number three, simply known as the italian stallion, he's been known to negotiate his way out of the trickiest trades. we welcome guy adami to the industrial dating game and finally, bachelor number four, he's been nobody to seduce the ladies with two words risk reversal and his bearish growl is sure to make the ladies soon. now that you've bet the bachelor, pete's pick is pent air? >> pent air. >> grosso. >> rok. honeywell can buy and do whatever they want to. rok leading in in automation controls, high margins, leading in technology, i think the numbers work. i think this would be a real do for them. they can easily get it done. >> what are you doing in. >> pent air? >> love the bachelors, don't you? you're going to love this. rockwell collins, steve caulked
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to rockwell automation. i'm talking rockwell collins. why, because they are the jewel in the crown of the aeronautics industry. $13 billion market cap, probably gets done for 20, not an unreasonable valuation. high margins. everybody would love these guys. honeywell should buy them. >> i think honeywell should swipe left here. what does that moan on all these choices? >> here's a company that's actually massively outperform the s&p from the 2009 lows. up 340%. trade below a market multiple. it trades below a market multiple. 2.3% yield, great balance sheet and these guys should go it alone. trading at an all-time high. don't buy any of this garbage that these guys are selling her. >> collins happened to be up on a lousy take tape and we're not selling garbage here. pick me, monty. >> is that who did "the dating
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sgham." >> was not montial. >> what a great game though. >> chuck woolery, no. >> still ahead, three energy stocks have been on major rallies from the recent lows but could they be coming to a screeching halt? reliable indicator is flashing a sell signal. all over the apple protests breaking out across the country. will the protests start impacting the stock? details live from the ground. back right after this. know your financial plan
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welcome back to "fast money." a rocky day for the markets. dow sinking nearly 200 points back into correction territory. the s&p giving up all of yesterday's gains and the nasdaq underperforming both indices, falling nearly 1.5%. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." protesters just started gathering in support of apple at stores across the country.
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we'll bring you live on the ground to hear what apple supporters are saying. plus, has the fouse left disney? why one is betting the stock will tank 10%. first, a number of beaten down energy material names have soared in 2016, but there's some troubling signs. larry mcdonald joins us here on the set. trouble coming from the bonds and we've been talking about this a lot. what are the bonds telling us about some of these situations? >> over the years when you're come out of the great bear markets, the financial and bottoms in 2011 and the european stocks bottomed in 2012. when you come out of the great bears, credit typically leads, so when you're measuring and sitting at home and you're trying to buy stocks in a bear market and you want to measure the sustainability of that equity rally in a bear market, and that's what the energy and materials are in, credit needs to be outperform, and today credit is massively underperforming the equity move.
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>> let go through some of the names that have seen huge rallies. we've all sort of questioned out there. freeport-mcmoran, up 105% since its 52-week low. can these gains continue and when does the bond market say? >> short-term bonds have moved up nicely but long-term bonds haven't improved much at all so it tells you the equity has outrun the credit market in this case. >> so expect a pullback? >> expect a pullback. i'm not an analyst on the stocks. historically we've got tons of evidence which shows when the equities are outperforming the credit, the bonds, in a bear market it's a bad sign. >> chesapeake up 50% from its 52-week low. >> chesapeake, if you think of a buy, with ten pieces, one pie is equity, one and the other nine are dead so you're talking about one of the most leveraged conditions in this space.
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equities haven't moved that much and a reshort-term bear sign. >> and apache, that's up 20% from its 52-week low. >> out of the three, apache's the least levered company. the equity is almost two times the -- the bonds so in other words in pie, seven pieces of the pie, maybe eight would be equity and the rest would be bonds. here once again though, even though it's a stronger balance sheet, the bonds haven't improved much relative to the big move in the stock, so once again all three are telling you this is a bear market rally which should be sold in the energy names. >> larry, thank you. larry mcdonald of societie general. you've been advocating freeport. you called it right. does it concern you? >> the stock has moved 80%, if you're lucky enough and i'm not sure anyone caught that move, if you were lucky enough to catch that move and think there's no global growth going forward. all the debt issues that larry talked about. if we start to have better
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global growth a lot of those things ease. i don't see that so i would lock in profits. >> give steve a lot of credit and you weren't calling a fundamental shift in the business. >> tradeable. >> sentiment was too bad and you know what your downside is and that was a fantastic call and to larry's point here, even apache tapped out over a week ago, the equity move stopped and when you so that sort halt and don't see the credit having the commensurate move, i don't think especially after the moves that these have, that it warrants bottom fishing anymore. a very long-term time horizon and i just don't have it in these names. >> talk about the put buying that you're seeing in freeport-mcmoran. citigroup put a sell on the tock with a 4.5% price target. steve was spot on. none of us thought it the would go up 105% in effectively eight or nine trading sessions. nothing has changed to me in earls it of the fundament amz so i think it goes lower. >> in terms of what larry is talking about. short term we've seen a little bit of a rise and longer term that's where the problem is and
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that's why it really looks like a lot of short covering, snap kind of a move, that you often times see before the actual thing rolls back over again. i'm actually how the of my puts right now and i would think about getting back into some puts after this big run. 100% in a short time frame, why not and i look at the leverage that this company has still, 20 billion in debt. i know they have same relief the other day. i still think this is a major problem. >> still ahead, weeks after assuming the chairman roll and viacom there's a new plan that has investors excited and can he full off. details later on and cnbc's eamon javers live where battles outside apple are getting high. >> reporter: members of the protesters fight for the future are getting started with the fight between apple and the fbi. when we come back in a bit, i'll talk about the battle for public opinion.
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frank abagnale. convicted felon and con man. that was a long time ago. you know, they made a movie about it.
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you were shown to be quite skilled at fraud. times change. now i help catch the bad guys. me too. i help banks detect fraud by applying cognitive analytics to public financial records and social media. so if somebody said, "catch me if you can...?" we can. let's do a sequel. it could be a buddy movie. i would like to have a buddy. welcome back to "fast money." protests erupting across the nation as people back apple in the contentious debate over whether the tech titan should help the fbi unlock a terrorist's phone. eamon javers is in the center of all the action outside fbi headquarters in washington. eamon?
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>> hands off our phones! >> reporter: hi, melissa. you can tell it's a cold and rainy right outside the fbi. protesters have just started to gather here. they are from the group fight for the future, and as you can tell the chant is hands off our phones. the sign says don't break our phones, and this is all about the battle over public opinion here in the fight between apple and the fbi over whether or not apple should be forced to create new software that would effectively break into the iphone on behalf. fbi in the case of syed farook, the san bernardino terrorist. that case is ongo, and the public opinion battle is happening right here on the streets of washington and across the country. tonight we saw a pew poll that came out just yesterday talking about the overall opinion shift here for americans, mostly favoring here the fbi by a margin of 51-38. we saw interestingly it doesn't break down republican to democrat in the traditional political views that we've seen in the past and also you see the iphone users themselves are pretty much split on this, but
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this crowd here, small gathering as it is. i can tell you they are very much anti-fbi, melissa. >> eamon, any word about any protests being planned against apple since this recent poll shows that americans side with the fbi in large part? yeah. i mean, at this point this group is very much anti-fbi here. they would like to see apple hold fast. they are saying apple, apple, what do you say? keep the fbi away. so here anyway the values are very much on the side of the tech community and pro-encryption, but as you say most persons do not agree with these folks here, 51-38. the opinion national is the other way, at least according to pew. >> eamon, thank you. eamon jafers in a rain and cold weeksy where the protests are just getting under way. but my point was that if most americans actually side with the fbi, are they demonstrating it in any way, either through protests and/or not buying apple products because at the end of the day that's all that matters.
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if you're an investor in the stock that's what you care about. >> that's all that matters. i don't know if it's happening yet but i know donald trump talked about it on friday, and he's got the bully pulpit right now and regardless what your politics are, a lot of people are listening to what he has to say so if he gets up on his soapbox and boycott apple there's going to be a faction of people that absolutely do. i said it for the last week or so. i think they are screwed either way. i think if they acquiesce, the client base gets mad and if they don't they upset politicians like donald trump. >> you know, i would think that this sets up -- listen, not a good situation for apple any way it's resolved in my opinion and the longer that it goes on, just another overhang for the stock so it's been my view that this stock is going to come back and test its long-term uptrend from the 2009 lows and this has to do with the fact that it's overshadowing new products that will come out next month and they will have buyback information and to me i think it really sticks the stock in the mud a little bit. i'm not really worried about boycotts but i think you'll see
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the stock and then in the mid-80s it's probably a great do. >> same way you have bounce and sell levels, you have selloff levels, and those are the levels where you want to buy it on the way down. those levels are 95 and 85, so to dan's point that's your 50 and 618 retracement, fibanachi retracement levels and apple, if the market is selling off, you'll see apple trading in 85. >> are you in apple? >> in the stock, yes, an jumped into the options but i've been holding the stock forever. >> okay. >> i would probably add to it if it gets anywhere close to what you're talking about because i think 92 seems to be a level where it's held several different times now. if it gets into the 8s, i'm definitely back in. >> viacom looking to sell a stake in its struggling movie studio paramount pictures. who is link up to get a piece? details right after the break. plus, shares of disney down 10% this year, and one trader thinks the company is about to double its losses. we'll explain why next. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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tonight i'm spelling out the current state of the stock market and what you must be doing to protect yourself. doing to protect yourself. plus, a company that absolutely
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here at td ameritrade, doing to protect yourself. plus, a company that absolutely they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade. welcome back to "fast money." now to a developing story on viacom. the ceo making some surprising
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comments about the future of the media giant's assets. cnbc's julia boorstin has the details. julia? >> reporter: that's right, melissa. viacom is making gains and giving most of them up on news that the company is exploring selling a significant minority stake in paramount pictures. ceo hand newly appointed chairman announcing in a jeffrey's conference today that the company has been approached by several strategic investors and the deal could come by the end of june. >> pursuing a transaction with a strategic minority investor, that is someone would take a minority equity interest in paramount, would be of great benefit strategically and financially to both paramount and viacom. >> reporter: activist investor said, quote, bringing in a partner to help monetize paramount is an important step and something we've specifically urged the company to do. the positive reaction in share price illustrates the support we have among shareholders.
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the stock had been up as much as 6.5% but gave up most of the gains, ending the day up about 1%. major viacom investor mario gobelli who also advocated for change also calling it a good first step telling cnbc's scott walker that dauman should separate paramount into a joint venture partner like alibaba and buy a partner like amy and buy a digital producer like netflix. this comes three weeks after dauman took on role as chairman after criticism to transfer paramount to digital distribution and for his high pay. melissa. >> julia, the point of the whole thing in terms. stock turning around is even if it does do that, it's a good first step but it's still left with the same fundamental problems that are facing a lot of the other giants, namely cord-cutting in the bundle. >> reporter: exactly, a first step but a first step that's really only about a relatively small part of its business. viacom's business, as with many of the other media giants, is
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primarily about those cable channels, all of that content, mtv, comedy central, nickelodeon, et cetera and that's the business that's facing so much digital disruption right new and we still haven't heard anything about dauman about how he plans to move forward and make changes that we haven't heard about yet. >> julia boorstin in lonks. >> in terms of content and media, guy. number one pick? >> well, it was disney, but dan's about to talk about it. i'll say this about viacom, though. the move today wasn't great. went from 36 to 39.5 in about 45 seconds and basically gave it all back which leads me to believe maybe in the short term it topped out. the space is under pressure right now. dan is going to talk about it. i don't know if there is a number one pick. if you made me pick i'd rather buy netflix on a breakout of 95. let's go to the aforementioned dan who is not here. he's over at the smart board. he's going to break down a bearish bet on disney. dan, what did you see? >> disney had a lot of put
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activities, four times that of calls and, you know, it's interesting because the stock has had a nice bounce since they reported their fiscal earnings about a week and a half ago, up 10%. today when the stock was 9540 there was a buyer of 15,000 of the april, 90/85 put spreads. that's about $2.7 million in premium and breaks down even, a quarter percent or so down at 89.15 with a max profit at 6.5 million around 85. that's down 11%. when you by it this trade a little bit, it's probably, i suspect, protection against the long position. april expiration will not catch the next earnings event which will come in early may and no scheduled events between now and then and when you look at the steep downtrend that the stock has been in over the last few months, just broke above it here. hit a little bit of technical resistance which is more important to look at the long-term chart and this is the uptrend that's been in place since 2011.
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just broke it here late last year. it's really in no-man's-land so if you're owning the stock and think some of the issues about cord cutting and the bundles is going to take a little time to kind of work itself out. maybe some put protection makes a little sense here. this is implied volatility, price of options in disney and have come down an awful lot with the broad rally in the market, many investors saying in the near term maybe it gives back to the prior lows and i want protection here. >> that's a bear trade. you're bullish. >> i look at it a different way. i look at it as 90 has been support. resistant when trading down 86 and as if trades above 90, that becomes your new support level. when you look at 95, most of the negative story we're talking about, it's already out there. use 90 as your stop. >> do you think the negative stop is out there already, sghan. >> i think what's going on here it's going to take quarters and quarters for this thing to work itself out and the idea of trying to pick a bottom in a
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stock that's clearly broken with secular shifts going on all over the place i think you'll see it back in the 80s. $880 is probably long-term support for the stock. >> more "options action" friday at 5:30. coming up on "mad money," chegg hit an all-time hoe and the ceo of covanta clears up the confusion surrounding the company's recent drop. all that and more on "mad money." coming up next, the final trade. tonight i'm spelling out current state of the stock market and what you must be doing to protect yourself. plus, a company that absolutely blew me away! "mad money" is next.
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finally fast but not least you heard of self-parking cars and now there's self-parking chairs. automaker nissan has developed futuristic chairs that get back into position by slapping your hands. file this under extreme american laziness. push the share in by yourself. >> pete? >> chairs going higher. >> high. >> phm. i'm long. >> qqq, you lost the general, sell it. >> guy? >> lost to began, rockwell collins, a lot of show tonight,
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a lot of energy. >> great dating game. >> jim laing was the host of the original "dating game." we'll see you tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." don't go anywhere. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. want to make friends, just trying to save you money. my job is not just to entertain, but to teach you. the industrials. those big fat ugly ducklings that have gone unloved are looking pretty darn good and


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