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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 14, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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allowing questioning. they thought it put players in unfair positions. >> did they shut up? i felt like they are not going to shut people up. maybe they threaded the needle. >> meantime, earnings gets off in earnest this week. we have big names including ibm and netflix. >> get ready for tomorrow. let's get to sully. thank you very much. i am brian sullivan. investors having doubts about this phase one of a trade deal. they're getting ready for an earnings avalanche this week. it is 12 noon. this is the halftime report. >> wall street under whelmed about the trade truths. the big banks leading the flood of earnings this week. the traders take their position. shares of western digital
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soaring 60% this year. and it just got a huge upgrade. it's our call of the day. the investment committee is ready to go. "halftime report" starts right now. >> good monday. happy columbus day. your investment committee today is joe, john, jenny harington, mr. ron, cnbc contributor. and also with us is keith banks, bank of america's vice chairman, head of the investment solutions group. welcome. safe to say that the friday euphoria over a partial trade deal, so-called phase one may be fading fast. our sources saying that china wants another round of talks before signing any kind of a deal phase one or otherwise. secretary mnuchin saying he expects tariffs to go up in
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december if there is no deal in place with china by then. so guys, that's the big story. the markets doing well. today not giving it back, but we're not doing much. i know the bond markets closed. take us out where you see things headed >> i'm not sure. if the market is not -- >> noes honest answer ever. >> i'm under whelmed about the trade deal. i think it needs a lot more work. it does look like it was more of a pr event than a sign of progress that's being made. china came out this morning and said more talks are necessary. >> hold the champagne was their quote. >> they didn't commit publicly to anything the president said they committed to which is agricultural purchases. i don't know that there is anything definitive over the course of four or five weeks. pen will be put to paper and
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we'll see details. >> so here's the dirty question. does it mean this is all about fundamentals will earnings matter here? not just on an individual day trade but matter going forward, will we still have the overhang of the trade guillotine? >> will earnings matter? earnings will ultimately always matter. earnings can be somewhat confusing. i think on the top line you will see a little struggle here during the earnings season. as far as revenue growth you will probably get five percent or six percent. that is probably where the numbers will come in. some sectors will disappoint. certainly financials look like they will disappoint. i think the expectations have been lowered and have been lowered just enough to keep the positive momentum going for the market overall. as it relates to the news that we got on friday, truce, that seems to be the word.
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that seems to be enough. if you are a trader or investor, whatever your focus is, you cannot get too involved in these headli headlines. it is going to disrupt you from what is going on in the markets. and the markets continue to for whatever reason, maybe it is a limited supply of investment vehicles and strong demand. whatever the reasons are, we continue to see multi assets performing well in 2019. look at apple as an example. 238. could be the proxy for the entire u.s. chinese trad dispute, but yet pressing towards all time highs. >> sky wurks solutions has done great, as well. it wouldn't be a show if we didn't have an acronym. m.e.t.e.r. monetary policy. e is earnings. we can talk about trade in a minute. you believe earnings expectations are a little too negative or pessimistic. >> right now we believe the
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consensus is somewhere between negative two percent and negative four percent. we don't see areas coming in in that manner. we expect earnings to be more flat if not up a little bit. joe made the point, right now the sentimentin the market is so negative, whether it's on trade, whether it's on earnings, whether it's on the fed. i think what that has done is set us up for nice moves in the market which we saw friday when you get a little bit of positive news. friday with the trade was a little bit of positive news. we never thought we would get the grand deal. we always said it would be a truce. the one thing you have to recognize, we went from escalation to de-escalation, step one in a multiple step process. that was enough to give us a nice pop in the markets. >> how much of that earnings pessimism comes from energy? which has just been decimated? the numbers are going to be terrible. >> i think that is certainly part of it. i think people are expecting the
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glass is half empty. so i think that's the lens through which most investors are looking at it. we have had continued major negative flows in equities. we think we are setting up for positive news not to mention the fact we think the fed will continue to do what it's doing and that's very important, as well. >> i thought that the statement from the whatever china global times editor where he said break through and he said doing things -- he basically said don't view our lack of enthusiasm that we are not optimistic, because we are. as soon as that came out, we jumped from negative 10 to unchanged. >> the messages are almost now as confusing coming out of china as they are from here. >> that is their main mouth piece. >> we had hold the champagne, that they're not going to sign the deal. kala is reporting that they want to have more talks. nothing is done.
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>> he said they have to have a deal to have a deal. >> he said the initial reaction is moderate, but that is where we are. that is what we do in china. he said until the ink is on the paper, we're not going to pop the champagne. but as soon as he said that we had a quote break through, that's not paraphrasing. that is when the market turned. that's why there is optimism again. that's why they're not erasing the nearly 400 point rally. >> last week we sent out our quarterly letter to investors. we realized in the last maybe five letters that we put out, we thought we were nearing the end of a trade war. in this letter we said who knows? all we have seen are threats, retractions, partial implementations. we stood back. >> that was just last week. >> that was just last week. it was six months ago, a year ago. i think keith categorizes it well by saying it's a slight
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de-escalation. from an investment perspective, we're taking a step back and saying like this is noise. we're going to live with noise. we would be foolish to try to predict where it's going. >> you should make your investment decisions based on the specific language from a chinese newspaper. >> it depends. if it's the official chinese newspaper then maybe you do. you want to look at those companies that might be most effect effected. >> unless the headline is we have a deal, i'm not sure how much else. >> we have been talking for months about buying quality, staying with that for a longer run period. it may be a de-escalation. the one thing that's still true is that the tariffs are in place. they're just not going up. we are still living with tariffs which is suppressing cap x and global manufacturing. if we goat to the point december 15 where tariffs are pointed at consumer-oriented goods, you have a different set of problems. you don't live headline to
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headline. you have to take these things into account. >> i keep coming back to it. we spent a lot of time talking about it and i know john's brother disagreed with us on what was most relevant. the federal reserve, the liquidity that they told the market that they will give you in q 4, 2019 is a completely different fed versus the fed in 2018 which was hostile in taking the liquidity away. that's something that can't be lost if you are an investor or trading in the markets. i think the other thing that is important is the strength of the consumer. outside of the u.s. and now it's becoming more imminent here in the united states, but you've got the consumer that remains strong. this week you will get rooetail sales. is it seven executive months if it is, that continues to suggest the consumer is powering the economy. if we see something very ominous
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in the rooet sales, to me that's more troubling than the back and forth we are having. >> if tariffs go up on european goods or china goods, at some point. >> those are a lot of ifs. if the consumer is beginning to pull back, that is a concern, but let's get those retail sales numbers first. >> i would say you also have to factor in we're finally seeing a fiscal response globally. we saw it in the u.s., obviously. now you had china, india, france and we're hoping we'll see something in germany before they -- not waiting for a recessi recession, but being more proactive. that's a big shift. that brings a lot more fire power on top of all the monetary easings we have seen all across the globe. >> that brings potential capital flows to parts of the globe and asset classes that have been so
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distressed and so undesired, emerging markets, emerging market equities or debt. europe. is europe potentially for a trade investable >> we are getting back to this debate that i feel like we have probably had for 25 years which is which one -- >> i know, exactly. can the stock market and the economy are not the same thing. is a quarter basis point going to help mom and pop. if the cost of certain goods comes down, then there is a transmission mecmism.
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having said that, with respect to fiscal policy being discussed in germany, they are more worried about the capacity to spend than the ability to spend. >> the thing that i like about the fed last year to this year is to me i see that as a fed that's responsible and acts accordingly and stays flexible and adjusts to different environments. i love that they're cutting rates now. i do think that that trickles back. jp morgan put out an interesting slide that shows something like the top 10% of earners spend 63% of their discretionary income. the other 90% spend 101%. if you put a few extra dollars in people's pockets because
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their car loans and mortgages are linked to interest rates, that does have a lagging but pretty significant multiplier effect on the economy. i think they do effect a positive economy. >> the other thing we haven't talked about is housing. >> that's the big thing. >> people are afraid is the fed pushing on the string? are we lowering rates and nothing is happening i think housing is the best example. we're seeing significant improvement in the housing market it's not going to drag dramatically. >> was it you? love it. >> rates are going down still.
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2018 rates were going up. that was not good for these guys. then you change that picture 180 degrees right in the first quarter of 2019 and the home builders have been off to the races. they're up between 40% and 60% and it's the only one that i kind of back off from a little is tol only because it's a different animal with the high end. >> you have a -- >> also very exposed to new york with the high end of real estate. >> we have a 360 something 30-year fixed. it's about as cheap as it gets. >> prices are up. we are having this discussion again. it's not 2007 right now, but it may be '05. >> depends on where we look. two percent of the population can afford a house based on the actual affordability. >> i think there are always head winds in the market. there seems to be more head winds or maybe because we talk
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about them more on a 24/7 basis. if you tell an investor where you are sitting right now, i think people look at the market, they look at investing as almost like an entitlement. you have 20% on the total return. if i fold you we were going to go flat, i will take flat. >> that's fine. >> you have been flat from january -- in 2018 in different components, different strategies. so ron is right, cyclicals peak in january of 2018. >> i get that argument. we hear it all the time. people write in we're flat for 18 months. cut it in half, it's still ten percent a year. that's not terrible. >> that's only for those just buying the etf. most of us here do some trading. if you're doing some trading, you're doing much better than that because you were picking up facebook at 1.25.
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>> do you know anybody who trades or written pobooks on trading? >> i do. i know guys who give that book away. follow the smart >> bank earnings. i'm not going to ask you about your own bank. don't worry. look at the wall. look at the logos out there. low yields, good for housing. are they bad for banks >> one thing i cannot comment on are bank earnings. >> that's why i'm asking you. >> not even generally the industry. >> when you think of banks you think of value. in the month of september you had the period where value had the best performance. are you seeing clients are saying i want value wuns again >> i think what we will start to see is a slow shift maybe even
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arguably accelerate with all the fiscal and monetary activity going on. if you begin to believe that i think you see a shift. you put the call and you can comment better than i can -- we have gone to an extreme. as people get more comfortable, we are quietly, the big concern was an inverted yield curve. >> global rates have become less negative. it's now minus 40 something.
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>> still minus. >> it's almost -- those rates have almost been i don't want to say cut in half, but raised in half relative to where they were. hopefully you sold out when it was minus 70. rates are creeping higher around the world without much discussion. >> which takes pressure off our ten year. you see the bund less negative. >> we always look at these numbers when they come out. it's always trading and the fixed income commodities and currencies that have not been good. john, do you have a view on how trading desks are doing? >> i don't believe -- >> i don't want anybody getting hired. >> actual desks. >> not the physical desks. this isn't a herman miller commercial. >> i'm being funny here. we're talking about all the models are algorithms right now.
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that's what's being driven. i think one of the struggles for the big banks is the loss of proprietary trading. they're not as active in trading. >> ipo business is not good. that's why i wonder why if you did say you thought earnings expectations might be a little weak. i wonder what would be the argument for better earnings from these companies we highlighted a couple reasons to be nervous? >> for me it has to be on the lending side, commercial, industrial. you have to see loan growth. i think that's important. you have to see momentum on the digital transformation that a lot of these big banks have been spending a lot of money on. are they getting momentum behind that >> when you look -- we've hammered this several times on the show. we haven't had a single person that comes on except for mike mayo who comes on and ra-ras the banks. they are right in line with the
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dow, 18% on the year. to joe's point, he said i would love to have flat for the rest of the year. i'm not saying he's wrong. these 18% is phenomenal for a sector that is hated. when you're seeing two to one utilities valuations versus some of these banks, that's a gift. the fact that they are 18% is pretty telling. >> i'll give kelly evans a second tease. he's the financial guy. the regional banks have done great. that will be a big interview. the exchange, you guys owe me lunch. here's what else is coming up on "halftime report." >> western digital shares surging 60% this year. one firm thinks it's going even higher, upgrading the stock to buy. one of our experts owns it and, we'll debate it in our call of the day. we want to hear from you.
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send us your questions. go to cnbc.comalimorwe/hfte tet us. "halftime report" is back in two minutes. my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson... to help the blind. it is already working in cities like tokyo. my dream is to help millions more people like me. it is already working in cities like tokyo. i am totally blind. and non-24 can make me show up too early... or too late. or make me feel like i'm not really "there." talk to your doctor,
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western digital. shares are higher. loop capital markets upgrading it to a buy with a $75 target. the stock is just under 60. you have to do a little pat yourself on the back, because you bought it at 37. >> we added it this past
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january. this is one of the rarest occurrences in our portfolio. we bought it a couple years ago when it was trading at about 40. it had a five percent dividend yield. thing goes crazy, about a year and a half later we sold it. that's unusual for us. the reason i say this is because i think in this hdd storage space people forget that these are real assets and products. every time you back up your phone, it's not going into the cloud. it's traveling through fiber and ending up in a data center. that storage is super valuable. it's never priced at zero. that's the way these stocks swing and get priced. >> because it gets viewed as kmaudatized. there are opportunities when people lose their mind. so when i brought it back in january, it was the same kind of thesis. >> they think that average selling prices are finally going
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to firm up. >> right. it has a $2 dividend. it was secure three years ago and this past january. earnings i think are coming in and storage flash is never going to zero. >> that's a great trade. what do you say to an investor that says from december of 2014 into 2016, stock went down 60% and then it did it again in 2018. it went down 68%. how does an investor trust management that they've got a degree of control on the business model why would i invest >> i don't think that's on management as much as the investing public who gets wild expectations. i think earnings have been like reasonably in line with what i have expected when i bought it. i think with this, most of my portfolio my intention is to hold a stock. you buy western digital. you sell it if it gets extreme.
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>> you have to almost -- >> i think you need to be careful with timing. >> you're swing trading the stock. >> maybe with year and a swings in it. you have to be aware of the fact that it swings. >> is it a better options trade? >> i don't do options. i think when you see it on 102 and it is a two percent yield, you have to know it's time to sell. >> we're going to talk about the
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four etfs. first, your s&p sector check. got two up. health care and financials. the rest are down. the dow is actually up 16 points. the bond market is closed today. volume will be light. we're back after this. make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar.
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welcome back. here is your cnbc news update. queen elizabeth making a formal speech to parliament. that speech is used to detail all of the bills the government wants to enact in the coming year. >> my government's priority has always been to secure the united kingdom's eparture from the european union on the 31st of october. my government intends to work towards a new partnership with the european union based on free trade and friendly cooperation. >> tens of thousands of people attended a peaceful rally in hong kong. they appealed to the u.s. congress to press ahead with
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legislation which would require the secretary of state to annually review hong kong's special economic and trade status, this to provide a check on beijing's influence over that territory. taco bell pulling beef from some locations in michigan, kentucky and ohio due to quality concerns, but no more specific explanation was given. you are up to date. that's the news update. >> sue herera, thank you very much. now, let's get down to the new york stock exchange. as we get revved up for earnings season, let's find out what etetf you need to be watching. >> we have bank earnings straight ahead. investors laser focussed on how the group will start off reporting season. so what's the best way to play bank etf,s joining me to discuss, cfra and etf consultant. todd, so far this year, the
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bigger the better. the big money central banks and large regionals are outperforming the smaller names. and the market cap weighted spdr is outweighting. why is this happening? why are the big banks outperforming the smaller banks? >> the larger companies which tend to be more market cap weighted products or the regional bank etf, you will have more diversification of the revenue stream. it's not as dependent on loans and loan growth, but broader areas of revenue, trading in capital markets. that diversification will help. >> they do have trading operations, those big money center banks. we've got a low rate environment. does a low rate environment somehow give a competitive advantage to a bigger bank over a smaller bank >> the bigger banks have a much
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deeper capital market structure that they can leverage for revenue. this low market environment is going to favor the bigger banks. >> you know what's amazing is even the regional banks is a biforication. if you look at the iat, this is a market cap weighted of regional banks, five banks are half of the market weighting. almost 30% of the weighting. you can see what's going on. it's rather remarkable how big even the regional banks are becoming. >> it highlights how important it is. that portfolio equally weighted. holdings big difference in the size of the holdings. roughly two or three percent of the assets as opposed to eight or nine percent. you have to look under the hood.
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>> you're always saying do your homework. if you want to play pnc, that's the better one for you. it's equally weighted. people look at it because it has higher volume. >> big difference between equal weight. >> thanks so much for joining me today. sit tight. our live show online starts at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll reveal what could be the next catalyst and talk the bit coin's latest hurdle and more. >> look forward to that. thank you very much. options bulls are trying to find opportunity today in health care and energy. jon has those trades coming up in unusual activity. we are just one month away from a very special halftime show in honor of veterans day. we're live from the women's memorial friday november 8. if you are a veteran, if you are part of a military family or
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want to join us to honor them, e-mail your name and phone number to veteran ticketats the tickets are free. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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shares have lost a quarter of their value. bullish options traders are playing for a bounce. jon has unusual activity. >> alexa, buy me some stock right now. right now because here it was 140. that was back in may. there it was 135 bucks a share. now it is $102 a share. we want alexa buying our options. november options. they are out about a month into the future. they bought them pretty quick. almost 5,000 of those at that 105 strike. so just above where we are now, like that activity. i follow these calls. i'll probably be in this trade 20 to 30 days.
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second trade, as you said energy. brian sullivan is all about energy. this one looks kind of interesting. apac apache, this one was almost $40 a share. now you're buying it for almost half off. love that. these have a little more time, december options in this one. they came in. they're buying december 25 calls with the stock down there. love that action. i like the upside and the risk/reward. and i have more time. i'll probably be in these almost two months. i bought a bunch of them. the stock has been moving up and option activity picking up throughout the session. >> we're starting to see action. they had been trading like road kill pretty much. we saw how the big oil and gas etf is starting to show a little sign of life. maybe there is a little something there. >> there might be a chance. >> jon, come on back.
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shares of nike hitting an all-time high today. bank of america upgrading the stock to a neutral from outperform. they raised the price target to 98 from 70. stock has done great. b of a sees stocks at 95. price target is 98. must be columbus day. >> why this is interesting is because they had the lowest price target on the street. >> i believe the technical term for that is wrong. >> throwing in the towel. >> they have momentum. and nike reported a strong quarter which is kind of inconsistent to the economic narrative globally. right now, it's about international. it's about digital, and it's about what you're providing in terms of product to women. that's where the strength in the last quarter was for nike. so he is correct to talk about sports wear. and in that conversation with sports wear, you also have
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lululemon trading to an all time high. it's a name that i'm long and some others on the desk, as well. it's lulu, nike, adeedas is up. in the global economic conversation that we're having, what is the weakness >> 32 times next year's expected earnings. >> that's a premium that i'm still willing to play. i think nike goes above 100. back to the comments, it's selective because the consumer and consumerism seems to have some buoyancy when it's about a product they really desire. >> this is the jesus sneaker that's being sold for $2,000. it has holy water in the bottom of the show. this is not a joke. >> who makes it? >> air max 97 inri which is king of the -- >> just be careful. don't press the buy button. >> i bet it's not a blip.
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on the wrong, we're wrong on this, too. it's that discipline of leaning towards value and keeping a reasonable market multiple that has kept us out. >> i'm old enough to remember colin kaepernick. we had discussions on this network a year and a half ago. i'm being facetious. it wasn't that long ago thattee were talking about nike being doomed because of some of the things that were going on around people that sold nikes for them. a lot of people were pronouncing nike toast because of this. twitter campaign -- >> nike endures that conversation all the time. go back to last week with the nba. >> no more derailing than jesus sneaker. >> jordans are still the biggest selling sneaker in china. >> underarmer pete had unusual activity. there is a lot that people have put their money on right now.
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obviously, the sports wear makers virtually across the board are catching that. >> good job by pete. i don't think i was there that day. >> it was the only day last week you were. >> that was the day i slept. >> my second favorite, the grounding -- >> you have another brother. the grounding of 737 max entering the eighth month now and the company's board is stripping ceo of his role as chrm. what that might be signaling. this piece is talking to me.
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it was to focus more of returning the grounded 737 max to service.
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the stock up with the market today. splitting the roles. does anybody think this is going to change the outcome for the jet or for the stock both or neither? >> i think it's just a matter of time. if you're patient, the stock is going to rally. i think the stock has technically traded incredibly well since it's had the fundamental issues that it's had since march. i don't know when the time is going to be, but i think the stock is going to push above $400. >> still up. >> i have a different perspective. i want to see how the earnings play out in the next year. i want to see what they're using this for. i think it takes a year to show up. i'm on the sidelines. >> anybody think that the job as ceo is at risk >> i don't think so. i mean, i would be surprised if it is. it's pretty close to an act of god what has gone on with these jets and/or under education.
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>> stories in the papers, they rushed it. >> i have heard with a lot of hours that the pilots in particular in the right seat, the co pilots didn't have nearly enough time in the jet. and that is a significant contributor to any accident. it's human. and if you didn't turn off that auto pilot and you're fighting against trying to make sure that the plane stays flying, that's a problem. if you didn't have enough hours, that's a significant issue. >> all right. we'll move on from boeing. nobody has a strong view point. >> i like it. >> i like it. >> not you. what's your beef with boeing >> wait and see. >> i have to wait and see. >> the desk is answering your
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questions next in a segment they call ask halftime. original. to reach us go to or tweet us. we're back in two minutes. but in my mind i'm still 25. that's why i take osteo bi-flex, to keep me moving the way i was made to. it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex - now in triple strength plus magnesium.
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discover the option that's best for you. call today and find out more. i'm proud to be a part of aag, i trust em, i think you can too. online now, read the article on the one ignored industrial stock that could be the best way to play a boon rs are answering your question right now here we go first up, david in michigan, where are you on the hand? david wants to know about slack, buy, sell or hold. >> i'm long, so i'm going to say -- i'm long slack, a lot of it -- josh made a very compelling fundamental argument for the reason to own the stock. they reported 12 million daily
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active users last week that has not done much to lift the stock. stock really needs to regain some of the technical momentum that it initially had. lost it quickly when it came out at 42 bucks. got to get above 27.50 to re-establish the technical you momentum i'll be conservative on the down side break 21, i'll be out. >> okay. and dave in south carolina is wondering why beyond meat has been falling so much lately. >> i believe in the food revolution, but i do think that there will be a lot of competition. and there has also been negative headlines around some of the innovators in the food area, questioning whether or not they are more nutritious. the vegan or vegetarian options, whether in fact that they will meet with stiff competition from the likes of tyson, which is making vegetable based chicken, kellogg has products coming out, some of the biggest meat makers in the world if you will are
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going to compete with these guys so even though beyond meat is getting more and more deals with chains around the country, competition is heating up. >> also fattish. people are all over the -- you wonder about the trading community. >> unless you use them in tandem and go to a fast food restaurant that is a whole different argument but having said that -- >> an uber play hopefully if but get my drift >> yeah. but i do think the food revolution is real, but i think that there is very real competition from very large entities >> a lot of put buying in there too. >> hedging the long position how would you read it? >> right now they are blare bet the stock breaks to the -- >> is there a beyond turkey for thanksgiving >> turducken is a real thing all right.
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by the way beyond meat does h e sausage. >> but that is not beyond turkey >> are you going to have a vegan turkey and stuffing this which is vegetable base. and arthur in massachusetts, love your fish sticks by the way, wants to know if you still like b and g foods >> he i do some of my original clients have a gain in this and they made a ton of money at 11.5% dividend yield, you have to ask yourselfis that safe i met with the cfo in may, we went through the balance sheet, the cash flows the dividend was safe. he was we have strong, very adamant of the dividend safety they bought jolly green giant and that has been slower than expected, so this is one where a lot of company earnings report, you kind of know what is coming on the conference call and i'm always listening and i will be for a while until we see them start to intake great jolly green giant well and
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until the market uncertainty over that -- >> but you still own it. >> i still own it. >> so a mrs. dash of hope on the stock. >> yeah, what does emeril say? >> yeah, bam mrs. dash all right. parsippany, new jersey, the capital of foods anita in seattle says she is at 25% loser so far in wynn and she wants to know basically if she should stay at the table is or take the loss and walk off >> don't put good money after bad, anita but i do like wynn here at this level. i luckily am not somebody who has suffered 25% drawdown in this one, but i believe that the tables are very active right now. and i was just out there this weekend. i'll be back there in two week very crowded a lot of up side call activity too. >> i'll be there tomorrow night.
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so i'll do a firsthand anita, you'll get more than yo asked for. and we'll trade apple and plus ibm and netflix and your final onades coming up next halftime
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in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. shares of apple, guess what, hitting new all-time highs against today. >> i like that my biggest holding >> also reclaiming the market
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back from microsoft for the first time in six months a top analyst -- this is what happens. top analyst in taiwan says apple's new budget iphone will launch in the first quarter of 2020 for $399. and that it will be a, quote, key growth driver. save me. >> yeah, and it is because of everything that pete and i talk about with apple and we're not the only ones. i know the rest of you all understand the service revenue they don't get a better deal than basically the billion installed users and make that billion two when you got a bunch of these cheap iphones out there. that is reoccurring revenue, whether it is itunes, whether it is the new tv service. >> is that good for the stock? >> yes because the rio you occe occuri side >> and ibm, you own it >> and the whole investment thesis on ibm was based on its
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cash flows and management becoming very disciplined and consistent and not disappointing investors. obviously longer term was based on big data and success in the markets. so we expect another super consistent like just don't screw it up deliver what you told us that you would deliver >> i like it, don't screw it up. american express also reporting, and that stock up 23% this year. joe, you own amex. >> and they will report friday the stock has pulled back from july from it was around 130. i think the concern here is that the street, myself included, still really views american express as one of the top financials that you think about, american express in july, price was 129. par g target 130. so expectations -- >> good stuff. final trades >> copart. >> and watch brexit negotiations this week.
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>> and cat, ten times earnings, disproportionate favor ability from cutting rates in emerging markets. >> and the junior miner, a lot of up side call activity gdhj >> guys, thank you that is it for halftime. "the exchange" begins right now. hi, everybody. here is what is ahead of us. keep it on ice the chinese media say they aren't ready to pop the champagne yet on the latest trade agreement with the u.s we'll talk to one of the president's top china advisers on if this means no deal and what else the chinese are demanding. plus breathing room, could the latest china developments take the fed off the hook for more rate cuts is an october cut off the table. an


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