tv Early Start With John Berman and Christine Romans CNN February 1, 2016 1:00am-2:01am PST
all right. it's here. it's finally here. the iowa caucuses begin. the very first contest of the 2016 presidential campaign. candidates making their last-minute pitch to voters late into the night, but with tight races are both sides, who comes out on top in iowa? good morning. welcome to "early start." i'm christine romans in new york. >> i'm john berman in des moines, iowa. it is monday, february 1st, caucus day. 4:00 a.m. in the east. it is here.
after months of campaigning and hundreds of rallies and town halls and debates. the first actual votes will be cast in hours at the iowa caucuses. 7:00 p.m. local time. 8:00 p.m. eastern. voters will tawalk in at the caucus site. i'm here at the cafe. the city beginning to wake up. they are waking up to tight races on both sides. democrats and republicans locked in the last-minute battles. every candidate in each party engaged in a huge turnout. i will make a prediction here. whoever turns out with the most voters will continue. they say what else will it come down to? donald trump and ted cruz very tight. cnn's jim acosta with the latest. >> reporter: trump sounded
confident in the caucuses. he was here in sioux city where the chief rival was accused of dishonest attacks. here's what he had to say. >> we have to win this election. we have to win in iowa. a lot of people say donald do well in iowa. i say i can't do that. i really want to win. if we do win, we will run the table and make this country so great. you will have victories all over the place. >> reporter: trump handed out a check for $100,000 to a local veterans group as part of skipping the debate last week. he has two more rallies today. john and christine. >> it will be interesting to see how he handles an election night. election night is different when you are a candidate. on the democratic side, very
tight there. hillary clinton and bernie sanders running neck and neck. all the polls have hillary clinton persistently three to four points ahead. will the passionate, young voters who fill the bernie sanders rallies show up tonight to caucus? cnn's jeff zeleny was at bernie's final event in iowa. he has the latest. >> reporter: john and christine, with caucus day here, bernie sanders had a bounce in his step as he made his way to the rally. in the same venue where his rival hillary clinton was a few days earlier. the difference in energy and enthusiasm was palpable. >> the poll had us 41 points behind. we have come a long way in eight months. >> reporter: bernie sanders is trying to drive young voters to
the polls. young women voters are the key demographic for the campaign. they are trying to get them out. one by one, every supporter i'm told is being called, texted, e-mailed. they are contacted in the final day to make sure they show up in the town halls across the state of iowa. there are 1,681 precincts. sanders' campaign believes they are strong in college towns. they hope the power of social media through snapchat and facebook and instagram and others will help drive them to the polls. he said he had an average contribution in january of $27. >> we received up to $3.2 million individual contributions.
and that is more contributions than any candidate up until this point in a campaign in the history of the united states of america. >> reporter: he believes his campaign that it is a sign he has reached beyond iowa and this campaign can go on as he heads to new hampshire and the rest of the states as the campaign finally gets under way. john and christine. >> jeff zeleny for us following bernie sanders. just under 16 hours until voters show up. i'm joined by eric bradner in the cnn cafe. let's start with the bernie sanders and hillary clinton dynamic. jeff zeleny was getting to the crux of the campaign. will the bernie sanders voters who we have seen at events all over the state, will they show up to caucus? >> absolutely. the question is will this look
like 2008 when barack obama turned out and another liberal icon, harold dean puttered out here in iowa. the key issues to watch are the college towns and ames and iowa city. story in johnson county. if bernie sanders wins, not by a little bit, but absolutely crushes hillary clinton, it is a good sign for him if he has a chance to make up her advantages in urban areas. >> it does get complicated. there is only so much of an advantage to run up the score in college towns. the bottom line is this, bernie sanders is better served to get people in the college towns than to go to the urban areas. >> we know how much delegates each county has. it is not like turning out a ton of people at a college.
so barack obama had an advantage in 2008. the iowa caucuses were a month earlier and the students were at home. they could caucus in their home precincts. now they are all concentrated in one place. >> the term is clumping. you can tell your friends you learned a political term this morning. the polls have shown a trend. that trend is ted cruz had been on top ahead of donald trump. that switched. donald trump now leading in almost all the polls going into the caucus night. what is the mystery there? >> well, you know, in part, nobody really knows how broad donald trump's reach is. he is bringing all these people into the process, but it is a bit a chaotic. it is hard to know exactly whether, you know, whether the enthusiasm you see at a trump event can ever actually manifest
itself on caucus night. >> we will know in 17 hours if the donald trump phenomena that we have seen for the last several months if it is for real. if he does actually win, that will be a huge deal. he is not taking anything for granted. everyone assumes ted cruz has a big advantage. cruz does. donald trump is fighting for the evangelical voters. >> he is. perhaps he is not one of them, but he will fight for them. he's making the case that they have been under siege here in the united states for a long time. he will be there to defend them at every turn. that's where this idea of trump's strength above all else comes into play. the idea that he can defend them against all of the challenges whether or not he is one of them. evangelical voters get that.
they are drawn to him rather than ted cruz they recognize themselves. >> i can say being here for the last four or five days, trump has delivered a different campaign, he has a staff here. you can see by where he has been and how he has done his closing arguments, they are taking this seriously. he was with jerry falwell jr. yesterday. he has sarah palin on the stump with him. >> there are 44 counties in the western part of the state and rural and evangelical. ted cruz needs to win, but win by a significant margin. donald trump is not letting him do that. trump's campaign is for real. bernie sanders and donald trump both have the challenge of organizing late, but they were well funded and have really put
together impressive organizations. >> 30 seconds left. marco-mentum. >> we don't know. that is the expectation. there is a huge difference between a strong third place finish or weak third place. it will show if he broke away from the pack of the establishment candidates. if he finishes second or first, that's a clear sign that he's broken apart. >> a lot of establishment republicans pulling hard for him. eric bradner, great to have you with us here at the mars cafe in des moines. christine romans, you know iowa as well as anybody. a lot of people in iowa know you. i walk around this state. you know christine romans. i said yeah. i know her. people here like you. >> that is so nice to hear.
i have to ask you, you went to iowa city on saturday night. a big bernie sanders event. tell me about that. what i hear from my deep sources in iowa is that bernie sanders is sort of still catching fire there. there are big crowds and lots of young people at the crowds. >> 3,800 people packed in the fieldhouse in iowa. vampire weekend played. jesse hutcheson held up a finger there. there are many young kids at the events. the events are a bit messy. they don't feel like the obama events years ago. i don't know from being there if all those people will show up to caucus if ways to help bernie sanders or not. like we were talking with eric, that is the great mystery. >> it is such an interesting
day. finally able to cast votes. the democrats and republicans do it differently when they caucus. clearly clearly going to be interesting to see who goes out there on the republican side and brave what is could be ugly weather tonight and cast those votes tonight. talk to you soon. 12 minutes past the hour. three dangerous inmates who escaped from the california jail cell are now back behind bars. we have the details on their capture next. and those who do should switch to geico because you could save hundreds on car insurance. ah, perfect. valet parking. evening, sir. hello! here's the keys. and, uh, go easy on my ride, mate. hm, wouldn't mind some of that beef wellington... to see how much you could save on car insurance, go to geico.com. ah! (car alarm sounds) it's ok!
welcome back. you are watching cnn. i'm christine romans. three violent inmates escaped from jail and the woman who helped them is in court today. the three are in custody now. one turned himself in on friday and the last two were arrested after someone saw their van in a whole foods in san francisco. we get more from dan simon. >> reporter: christine, they say if you see something, you should say something. that came into play here at the ashbury neighborhood in san francisco. someone in the area recognized the two fugitives and called police. >> i knew it was more than a homeless person. >> someone saw something and notified an officer. that notification led to the
apprehension of the suspects. >> i can say this morning the entire state can breathe a sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous individuals back in custody where they should be. >> reporter: authorities offered a $200,000 reward for information that led to the fugitives capture. the sheriff in orange county says the witness deserves part of the reward. >> dan simon, thank you for that. two virginia tech students being held this morning in connection with a kidnapping and murder of a 13-year-old girl. nicole lovell's body was found saturday near the virginia border. 18-year-old david eisenhauer is charged with murder. police are not commenting how she died or a motive. but eisenhauer and nicole were acquainted bettfore her
disappearance. later today, investigators plan to release more than 2,000 pages of evidence from last spring's deadly amtrak derailment in philadelphia. eight people were killed and 200 hurt. the evidence is expected to include data from the train's black box and could explain why the engineer was traveling more than 106 miles per hour north of the philadelphia station. the speed limit for that curve is 50 miles an hour. time for an early start on your money. stock futures lower as europe has little changed and weak manufacturing report from china. a rally from friday helped gain back some of the losses sustained this year. after the first month of trading, the dow is down 5.5%. the nasdaq is down 7.8% and the s&p is down 5%. there is something called the january barometer on wall street. the idea is an old wall street
saying, as goes january, so goes the year. since 1950, the prediction is right 87% of the time. meaning if there are losses in january, there are losses for the year. most of the years saw market shocks like wars and recessions. brace yourself for a wild year. back to iowa where the votes will be past and people will go to the caucus location in just hours and will the snowstorm tracking east effect the caucuses tonight? let's bring in meteorologist derek van dam for that. >> good morning, christine. a major winter storm has got its eye set on the central part of the country. specifically the state of iowa. why is that important? we have the caucuses taking place monday night. will it impact that region? timing is everything. here is the latest watches and warnings. we have winter storm warnings in utah and colorado. blizzard watches in store for the central and northwestern
iowa. that will likely be upgraded within the coming hours. the timing of the storm system is critical. we anticipate light rain showers mixed in with snow in the southern sections. the polls close at midnight. i think we will get the majority of the caucuses done and over with before the bulk of the storm system overspreads iowa and blankets that region with heavy snow. how much snow can we expect? anywhere between 12 inches across the northern western section. here is the snowfall west to east. the heavy snowfall totals near the border of nebraska. we have a brief warming trend along the east coast. behind the storm will cool off dramatically. here is the seven-day forecast. we start the workweek off with temperatures in the low 50s. back to you. >> derek, thank you. happening now, an emergency meeting over the zika virus. world health officials trying to
welcome back. the zika virus exploding to two dozen countries, the world health organization is holding an emergency meeting in geneva today. travel warnings are in effect for pregnant women and officials could decide to declare a public health emergency of international concern. the zika virus was first seen in uganda. alarm, quite frankly, david, as this thing spreads. >> reporter: christine, there is alarm. many people are asking the question why are we playing catch up on this? the virus was identified here in the zika forest in uganda back in 1947. almost 70 years ago by scientists. they knew it could affect humans and the fact is there are viruses popping up here all the
time and we don't often know what they will lead to. >> we don't know for sure. we don't know what is in these forests. we have not done enough. we can't say we have done everything. every other year, we come across new viruses. in the last five years or so, we come across a new virus in this country. >> reporter: with zika threatening an entire continent and maybe spreading into the u.s. in the coming months, the scientists say we didn't know all that much up until now. only one in five people show any symptoms. those symptoms are far less serious up until now than other similar viruses. and it wasn't easily infecting humans. here on the african continent. waited more than 60 years until there was a large pandemic in
the asia pacific region and now spreading to the americas. now the w.h.o. says it could be linked to serious complications and birth defect. all that time went by and scientists say more should have been done to the front end to combat this virus. >> many wondering if travel warnings are enough. thank you, david. 27 minutes past the hour. the very first day of voting in the 2016 presidential race. it is here. in just hours, the iowa caucuses begin. we will take you there live for everything you need to know. that's next.
hear that music? in just hours, the first contest in the 2016 presidential race begins. candidates in iowa make their cases to voters. our special live coverage begins now. welcome back to "early start." this special iowa caucuses day. i'm christine romans in new york. >> and i'm john berman. 30 minutes past the hour. i'm at the mars cafe in the city of des moines in the state of iowa where they will cast votes. it is finally here after months
of campaigning and rallies and town hall speeches and the debat debates. in just a few hours, voters will show up in all 99 counties. today, the candidates are hitting the ground hard. ca campaigning all over the state because these races are close. each campaign, all their staffs, engage in the vast turnout effort. it will all come down to turnout. whoever turns out the most voters will win. on the republican side, the battle is between donald trump and ted cruz. cnn's phil mattingly is with the cruz campaign. >> reporter: good morning, john and christine. don't rolls dice. that is what ted cruz is
repeating. for evangelicals, don't roll the dice are donald trump. someone made a big push for support. maybe ideologically hasn't been the force of his career. whatever you want to call what marco rubio did in the senate, ted cruz has hammered him on it. ted cruz has had a rough last couple weeks. under firm attack from donald trump. marco rubio swinging toward sharp attacks in the last couple days. he is trying to push back. >> every candidate is going to say they oppose obamacare. the question we ask is show me when you stood up and fought against obamacare. every candidate is going to say they oppose amnesty. even if they're name is on the leading amnesty bill and they led the fight to try to pass it. the question we should ask is when have you stood and fought
against amnesty and for the rule of law. >> reporter: he will reach his 99th county, part of the ground game that ted cruz has had. they spent millions on data and digital. knocking on doors to get the key turnout. that's the big question today. what will prevail? donald trump. a message expanding his lead in the polls the last week or two or ted cruz and the ground game his team invested millions in over the last nine or ten months. john and christine, back to you. >> phil, thank you so much. that gives you a sense of what is at stake on the republican side. what about hillary clinton and bernie sanders? locked in a tight race. most of the polls show hillary clinton with a slim lead. 47% to 44%. i can tell you they essentially think that is where it is as well. that doesn't mean that hillary clinton's a slam dunk tonight. oh, no.
the big question is this. what about all those people showing up to the bernie sanders events? the thousands of passionate young first time voters screaming at the rock 'n' roll rallies? we have cnn's brianna keilar with hillary clinton overnight. let's watch. >> reporter: john and christine, an enthusiastic crowd of thousands at hillary clinton's final campaign event before iowans caucus. a far cry from the very first small event she held here in iowa all the way back in april. hillary clinton making the case that she is more electable than bernie sanders and more capable of getting things done in washington. >> if you agree with me that we need to build on the progress we have made, we need to prevent it from being ripped away and undermine by the other party whose views and values are opposed to what i believe, then i hope you will go caucus for me tomorrow night.
i hope you will go. i hope you will stand up for me. i hope you will fight for me. i promise you this, i will stand up and fight for you every single day of this campaign and then when we win, i will fight for you in the white house. thank you and god bless you. >> reporter: talking to clinton campaign sources, they feel good about hillary clinton's prosp t prospecting going into caucus day. they are looking at the polls. the consistent few points lead she has in so many of them. that is making them feel good, but they are caucus. they are haunted, many of them in the campaign in 2008, by what happened here in iowa. they went in to caucus and thinking they were going to win and instead, she got a stinging third place defeat. john and christine. >> brianna keilar with hillary clinton for us. let's break this down.
joining us is wall street journal and white house reporter, colleen nicole nelson and we have eric bradner. she made a key statement too. i talked to the clinton people and sanders people. i do not smell fear in the clinton campaign the way you did in 2008. they, at least they come across like they think they're going to win. >> they are cautiously optimistic. they brought out the big guns on sunday. you saw hillary clinton campaigning with bill clinton and chelsea clinton. it is interesting, she is basically making the argument as bernie sanders calls for sweeping changes, she is saying stick with me. stick with experience. she stood with her family and hugged her husband. hugged her daughter. she said you know the clinton family. stick with us. >> this is it.
take it or leave it. eric, it is hard to relate to people having been to both the clinton and sanders events. briana was at the event last night. these are tiny. the bernie sanders events are bursts at the seams. >> absolutely. 3,800 people. the key is wrestling all of the excitement and getting it to the polls today. especially with college students and johnson county here. he needs to rack up big leads here. this is tricky. barack obama managed to do it in 2008. you have 240,000 people to participate in the iowa caucuses in the white hot race. 2004 was half that. harold dean from vermont.
sort of like bernie sanders, managed to have a disappointing showing. he is working on organizing here the last two months. rapidly building out. something to catch up with on over what hillary clinton built upon from 2008. it hasn't been tested yet. he has a lot of people volunteering for him as precinct captains and first time caucus goers. it is a challenge to get that energy and excitement. >> it is not easy. let's talk about the republicans, colleen, donald trump was with jerry falwell jr. on the stump closing hard. i say and ththat because peoplee is running a hard campaign. he is beginning to run a more traditional campaign. >> he is jumping through the hoops candidates need to jump through. it is fascinating to watch how aggressively he has made an
effort to cut into ted cruz's base of support, which is evangelical voters. >> going right for the heart. >> that is what ted cruz is counting on. ted cruz saw his lead slipping away and trump seized upon it. he went to oral roberts university and started campaigning with jerry falwell jr. and sarah palin. all these people who vouched for him. we agree with him on the issues. he will be strong for us and advocate for us. he has made an aggressive play. the key question at this point, much with sanders, is does he have the organization? when you talk to trump voters, they say they are getting phone calls from the trump campaign. they have not necessarily told them where to go to caucus or how to caucus. >> i was talking to a republican voter yesterday who said she received 20 calls from campaigns over the last few weeks. a democratic voter told me he had been contacted by the
clinton precinct captain every day for last two weeks. i cannot imagine what it is like to be an iowa voter. ted cruz has a donald trump problem. he has a marco rubio problem. >> right. exactly. marco rubio, we have been talking about marco-mentum. whether he can join trump and cruz in the top tier and break-away from the pack. marco rubio can come in third place and it can be a great night if he is in a close third. if he is third and way back with the rest of the pack, it is a bad sign for marco rubio. yeah, trump and cruz are really competing for a similar block of voters in the western portion of the iowa. 44 counties that could decide the race. it is fascinating tug between do we go with someone who is one of us or do we go with someone who
is strong enough to defend us. marco rubio has been making the play for he is one of us lately too. talking about his faith openly on the campaign trail. >> he spent the most money here. it will be interesting to see. colleen, is there anyone for whom there is no tomorrow? >> for most people there is a tomorrow because candidates have put all of their eggs in new hampshire in the establishment lane. i think you could see rick santorum or mike huckabee say enough already. >> donald trump has an event in little rock on wednesday which makes people think about that. colleen, eric, thank you for being with us. after we hear from our voters at the caucuses tonight, everyone goes to new hampshire. we have some big news at cnn. we are hosting a town hall event in new hampshire. anderson cooper moderates in the town of derry. hillary clinton and bernie sanders and martin o'malley.
the timing, christine, crucial. someone is coming out of iowa with momentum. someone is coming out of iowa with a chip on their shoulder. they will get on their stage with anderson wednesday night in derry and they will all have something to prove. >> in as i tell you, john, this is the day where every vote absolutely matters. the community centers and school gyms and church basements and all of the iowans will try to convince each other whom to vote for. it is really a fascinating process and democratic process, isn't it? >> on the democratic side, absolutely. literally, you go to parts of the room to show whom you support. your friend can drag you over to the hillary clinton area. don't forget, that is why the martin o'malley vote is important. both the hillary clinton and bernie sanders supporters will
drag their friends. >> on the democratic side, it is literally neighbors arguing and convincing to make the case. people change their mind. that is what is fascinating. i can't -- sorry to get excited about the internals of the caucus. thank you. let's get a quick check of the money. global stocks are lower. a weak reading on chinese manufacturing. oil prices are down as well. with the iowa caucuses happening today, the economy will be a main topic of conversation, no question. a recent cnn poll shows the economy is issue number one among democratic and republican caucus goers. the economy. ahead of terrorism and ahead of foreign policy. it is the most important thing to them. interesting that iowa's economy is strong. unemployment rate statewide is
3.4%. median house income is $52,000. home prices in iowa steadily rising up 10% in the past year. really interesting iowa's economy by the numbers look strong. diversified economic base. not just agriculture. there is insurance and finance. you will hear people talk about the economy and concerns that their kids won't have it as well as they did. that is an underline theme. 45 minutes past the hour. three dangerous inmates who escaped a california jail now back behind bars. this morning, new details on their capture. these next.
welcome back. i'm christine romans. the california jail worker accused of helping three inmates escape will be in court today. she is being charged with accessory to a felony. the three fugitives are back behind bars. the first turned himself in on friday and the other two were arrested in a parking lot in a whole foods. more from cnn's dan simon. >> reporter: when you hear the phrase when you see something, say something, that happened here. someone in the area recognized the fugitives and flagged down
police. >> get on the ground. i knew that was more than a homeless person. >> i sa citizen saw something suspicious and that led to the apprehension of two dangerous suspects. >> i can say the entire state can breathe a sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous inmates in custody. >> reporter: authorities offered a $200,000 reward for information that led to the capture. the sheriff in orange county said the witness deserves at least part of the reward. seems like the fair thing to do. john and christine. >> thank you, dan. two virginia tech students held without bail in connection a kidnapping and murder of a 13-year-old girl. nicole lovell disappeared last
week. david eisenhauer is accused of her murder. eisenhauer and nicole were acquainted. a second student natalie keepers is charged with helping dispose of the body. boston bombing dzhokhar tsarnaev's attorneys are requesting a new trial. later today, investigators plan to release more than 2,000 pages of evidence from last spring's deadly amtrak derailment in philadelphia. eight were killed and more than 200 other people hurt. the evidence is expected to have data from the black box of the train to explain why the engineer was traveling more than 100 miles an hour. the speed limit for the curve is just 50 miles an hour. four protesters holed up in
the oregon refuge. authorities are concerned about ongoing negotiations after the protesters reported losing communication channels. the last of the armed occupiers who took over the headquarters to protest the imprisonment of two ranchers. ammon bundy was arrested last week and one was killed with a shootout with police. college grads are making more money, finally. one decision can really boost those paychecks. i'll tell you what it is next.
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effect for pregnant women. the zika virus was detected in uganda. that is where cnn's david mckenzie is there live. david, you are in the zika forest. the virus named for that very location. >> reporter: that's right, christine. doesn't look necessarily like much. in those forests behind me, there is some 70 types of mosquitoes. they are studying here constantly to figure out whether this could be the location of the next virus epidemic launches from. they found this virus more than 70 years ago in 1947 and by studying it, they didn't necessarily push further because it wasn't the most dangerous virus. they caught it by accident while looking for yellow fever. this pandemic happened in the indonesia island and spread to
the americas. there was a long time no one was focusing on zika and the scientists say viruses pop up all the time. >> we don't know what is in these forests. we have not done enough. every other year, we come across new viruses. in the last five years or so, almost each year, we come across a new virus in this country. >> reporter: so that is it. to find out which virus they focus on is depending on the symptoms. in south america, there is a case where virus, little known before, has suddenly become a health emergency. >> david, a big question here. why didn't we see the outbreak in uganda that we are now seeing in latin america? >> reporter: a very good question. there are two strains of the
zika virus. the asian strain is a mutation. the virus is more sturdy and spread through the body when it infects a human. that is why it causes pandemic years after it was found here. in the rhessus monkeys and climbing in the trees, it did not jump to the human population. that is probably a different strain. scientists have to decide which viruses to go after. there is a sense more needs to be done at the early stages to have the ability to test for viruses in a hospital or lab in case a virus is more serious. it is like picking a needle in a haystack to pick out the viruses emerging from this region and which one is more deadly. >> david mckenzie in uganda. thank you for that reporting.
let's get an early start on your money. markets in europe and asia are down. weak manufacturing data from china is the reason. we are watching oil down. recent college grads are getting jobs and making money. millennials are college degrees are entering the best labor market in years depending on what they study. ages 22 to 27 jobless rate is 4.9%. wages for the same age group with the high school diploma is now at $25,000 a year. chemical engineers earn the most out of college. theology and religion making $28,000 a year. very good news here. recent college graduates are getting jobs and they, in general, paid more. "early start" continues
right now. all right. it is good time. in just hours, the iowa caucuses begin. the first contest of the 2016 campaign. candidates making their last minute pitches to voters late into the night. with tight races on both sides of the aisle who comes out on top tonight? welcome to "early start." i'm christine romans in new york. john has the front row seat there. >> i am in the front row seat in the mars cafe in des moines, iowa. john berman here. it is monday, february 1st. 2016. you know what that means! it is caucus day at last. it is finally here. after all of the months of campaigning and town hall speeches and debates, hours from now, the first actual voters cast the first actual votes in the 2016 presidential