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tv   CNN Americas Choice 2016 The Iowa Caucuses  CNN  February 1, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm PST

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then it all becomes real. the first votes of this primary election, the first chance to see not just what people will tell pollsters but what they're willing to do about it when it actually counts. our coverage continues right now. this is the moment when the presidential race begins. >> it is the first contest in 2016. tonight iowa really matters. >> in the heartland right now, one state has the power to shake up two parties and make or break the frontrunners. >> the stakes are so high for iowa and america. >> if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. >> this is the first presidential contest that counts. it's iowa's choice. >> we're going to win. >> a critical test for donald trump in a showdown with ted cruz. >> guys like ted cruz will never
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make a deal. no, you cannot have that. >> i think the people of iowa deserve more than politicians with schoolyard insults. >> will donald trump dent his dominance and give other republicans hope? in the democratic race tonight -- >> let's go win for america. >> -- a critical test for hillary clinton in a faceoff with bernie sanders. >> together, we can transform america. >> two washington veterans. >> if that's the kind of revolution he's talking about, i'm worried, folks. >> who will prevail in a state that dashed clinton's presidential hopes before? >> guess what. that inevitable candidate ain't so inevitable today. >> now it's time for voters to
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finally have their say. >> you get the first chance to decide who should be the next president of the united states. >> in one of the most unpredictable campaigns of our time. >> this is a strange election, isn't it? >> iowa is choosing. the world is watching. and this night will change the course of the 2016 campaign. >> right now, iowans are gathering across the street for the lead-off contest in a presidential race that's breaking all the rules. we want to welcome in our viewers from the united states and around the world. i'm wolf blitzer. 11 republicans and 3 democrats in two very dramatic battles tonight to the score the first wins of the 2016 campaign.
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we're less than an hour away from the start of the caucuses and the first clues about the outcome from our entrance polls. democrats are bracing for a nail biter. hillary clinton is locked in a very tight race with bernie sanders. she's fighting to hold off his unexpectedly strong, some would say improbable, presidential bid. perhaps everyone more improbable the donald trump phenomenon. tonight, trump is trying to beat back his strongest challenger ted cruz and live up to his promise of being a winner. we're also watching very closely marco rubio and whether he can pull off a strong third place showing and be a real threat as the race moves beyond iowa. let's go right to iowa right now. jake tapper and dana bash, they're both in des moines for us. >> that's right. as we know, this is a night where anything could happen in an election where anything could
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happen. you mentioned the improbable cases. we've seen huge crowds here for them, dana. as we said, the pundits have been confounded. nobody knows what's going to happen. tonight the voters finally get their say. >> even at this late hour, it is all about getting their supporters to the caucus sites. for example, the hillary clinton says they knocked on 188,000 doors just in the last three days. that gives you a sense of how critical it is to get everybody to the caucuses. >> correspondents are located at key spots across iowa at the sites of actual caucuses and at the campaign headquarters with the leading candidates. let's go to sarah murray. she's in west des moines. sarah, one of the biggest mysteries of the iowa campaign
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is trump. what are you learning? >> that's absolutely right, jake. one of the things that's haunting the trump campaign tonight is this question of whether or not it might all be too good to be true. they are pleased to see themselves leading the polls here. they look at that things like that latest "des moines register" poll. it has trump up by five points. they are trying to send this ground game into overdrive. as you guys know, they do not like to talk about their ground game. they're very secretive about it. but they were making calls for eight hours yesterday. advisers have been working with those volunteers to have them practice their speeches for the caucuses tonight to make sure they have people ready to speak on donald trump's behalf and they have the campaign talking points. even though it might be happening behind the scenes, this is a ground game that's
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kicking into overdrive. >> all right. we've seen these huge crowds. now the big challenge, of course, can donald trump turn these crowds into actual caucus attendees. one of the other things you and i were talking about, dana, has to do with polling. it's not about where the numbers are. it's where they're headed. somebody who has been surging in iowa this last week or so has been marco rubio. let's go to rubio's campaign headquarters. what are they telling you about the rubio surge? >> reporter: well, the rubio campaign really expects a strong third place finish here tonight, guys. even higher than the des moines register poll which had him at about 15%. one of the key differences i'm hearing about is donald trump supporters, they've been going after ted cruz and ted cruz
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supporters. one of the things that a senior campaign official told me is that through the hundreds of phone calls, thousands of phone calls, volunteers have made they have learned a number of possible donald trump supporters were actually upset at the republican frontrunner for not attending last week's debate. they believe that actually could change a little bit of the dynamics. they still expect to end in third place. maybe with some more support from donald trump backers and potentially a closer first and second place race, so we'll see if that trend continues here tonight, jake. >> thanks. dana, as you know, the cliche here is there are three tickets for first, second, and third place. marco rubio could have a claim at the establishment lame in the race. >> the fact that he was just reporting that the rubio campaign feels that they are potentially picking up some trump supporters, potentially,
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is interesting given the fact anecdoted anecdoted anecdoted anecdotedly, i'm not sure if it's going to be rubio or trump. >> ted cruz losing voters to rubio in the last week. ted cruz turning its attention in attacking rubio not just in speeches, but television ads. >> i want to talk to our panel here. glo anything but a first place finish for ted cruz in iowa, is that devastating? >> yeah, i do think it's devastating. i think his path to the nomination has always been right through iowa. he's never going to get any more evangelical support than right there in iowa.
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>> was that a mistake? should he have tried to manage expectations? >> if he's a close second to donald trump, maybe. but if this rubio surge is real, turns out to be true, and there's kind of a close second and third, i think that's devastating for ted cruz. >> you have donald trump trying to lower expectations in the last several days which is unlike donald trump, but people didn't think he would double down in iowa as he has. >> i think the expectations were pretty low for donald trump in iowa. then he saw the possibility -- the divided field really favors him. ted cruz is beating him by 18 points if they're going one on one in iowa. but with a divided field and all these folks aiming for the evangelical vote, trump has taken over the lead. ted cruz had a plan and that
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plan was to win iowa, to survive new hampshire with some style, then overtake everyone in south carolina. this really disrupts that plan if he doesn't win tonight. >> i think that's absolutely right. that would echo throughout the southern states, the bible belt. i think it will be devastating for ted cruz's campaign if he doesn't win that. i think the expectations game probably has been played best by marco rubio. a third place finish would be a win. they've said, oh, they're the ones that really have to win. i think they've played it really great. fascinating, amazing, that donald trump could win iowa and maybe even come in second. this is two corinthians. this is cracker. >> on both sides of the aisle, this is a fascinating night. who would have thought six months ago we would be talking about donald trump potentially
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winning in iowa and sanders potentially winning in iowa as well, although right now it seems like hillary clinton is somewhat in the lead, but still that's a very close race. >> it's a hugely significant night because it's the first domino that will fall on both sides of the aisle. we've talked thus far about the republicans, but when you think about the democrats, hillary clinton faces yet another improbable competitor. >> right. >> if she should lose tonight to bernie sanders, i think there will be many who will say these are shades of 2008. >> if hillary clinton, david, does win, does that help her significantly in new hampshire where bernie sanders has been in the lead? >> i think it will help reduce his lead in new hampshire. i'm not sure she would win new hampshire. bernie sanders needs a couple of wins here to change the fundamental assumption that hillary clinton is going to be the nominee. if he wins if new hampshire, it will be discounted as a regional
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victory for him. i still think she becomes the nominee, but i think there's a lot of nervousness among her supporters. >> usually we say iowa doesn't count. tonight matters in this presidential race in a way we haven't seen in a while because if hillary clinton doesn't win, bernie sanders becomes a viable alternative. he could go on to win new hampshire and there he is. >> we've got a lot more ahead, a lot more with our panelists. it will be a very long night, a fascinating night. let's go back to wolf. >> it's very exciting, anderson. we're also getting our first information about turnout at these iowa caucuses. that's a critical element. we'll be standing by to hear from some of these top candidates, maybe even donald trump. they're making last-minute pitches to voters at caucus sites. we're going to show you how the republican and democratic leaders measure up poll for
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we've got some breaking news. we're getting some initial reports of unusually high turnout. registration at republican caucuses in iowa, that's potentially good news for donald trump, but we're also getting some other important news on the democratic side. i want to go right back to jake tapper and dana bash. jake, what are we learning? >> all right, wolf. we're here in campaign head quarthea headquarters. this is a big race for hillary clinton who felt very good going into this night and ended up with a third place finish. >> it was the beginning of the end for her here in iowa when she lost the nomination to barack obama. you've seen this on the ground here as i have. it feels different. they've addressed this state in a completely different way when it comes to organization, when it comes to actually energy and
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the energy of course only comes from the candidate. she is a different kind of candidate certainly in the last few weeks. >> eight years ago, there was this inevitability about her. this race against senator bernie sanders has been a real challenge for her, so i wouldn't call her the underdog, but certainly she's been fighting. >> yeah. you know, if she does ultimately become the nominee, a lot of people early on were saying it's not a good thing to not have a fight because it sort of gets her muscles ready for the election. but seeing bernie sanders out on the stump here, the energy for him is quite something, especially among young people. >> let's hit the campaign correspondents. let's go first to brianna keilar who is in des moines. how are officials there feeling?
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are they jittery? are they confident? they've been through this before and they don't want the same results that they had back in 2008. >> reporter: yeah, that's exactly right, jake. and they're nervous, but it's not because of any indicators that should tell them that they're nervous. they're confident looking at the trajectory of the polls. they're confident in their ground game. they think their messaging is good. they remember 2008 and that heartbreak of that third place finish here so well that it just creates this kind of anxiety that i don't think will dissipate until the results are actually in. the candidate secretary hillary clinton is in her hotel room for the night as she awaits the results. she's in really good spirits. i actually bumped into her at her hotel in des moines a short time ago and she was all smiles. actually wearing a parka and sunglasses. she had come in just from a walk around the lake with her
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husband, the former president. they had gone walking around the lake trying to relax, trying to clear their heads ahead of a very big night here. jake and dana? >> all right, brianna, we'll come back to you i'm sure many times throughout the night. dana, it really is remarkable. not only is she a different candidate in terms of her approach to campaigning, but she's taken a lot of the key advisers that barack obama had eight years ago and hired them and make sure they do for her what they did for barack obama. >> we were talking to her pollster on your show earlier talking to him. i was actually thinking just that. what a brilliant way to try to win to try to actually recreate the magic and also the mathematics from the obama campaign. >> right now, if you're looking at the tv, you'll see some caucus sites -- you're seeing
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iowa voters going to the caucus sites, registering, getting ready to make their cases. if it is a democratic caucus, you get into little groups and you make your case. the republican caucus, it's a secret ballot. let's go to bernie sanders headquarters. jeff, no matter what happens this evening, the sanders people know they have really pulled off something incredible here given he was 50, 60 points behind her not long ago and now it's a dead heat. >> jake, no question about that. bernie sanders will leave the state of iowa tonight for new hampshire in a vastly different position than he came in. he's been very popular among the liberal grass roots for years, but he has expanded that popularity. i've traveled with him throughout the state of iowa here. he is getting supporters who are very young but also some older supporters. one thing that is going on tonight at this hour in iowa, all those big rallies he's been holding across the country for
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months and months and months, they're putting a lot of those people to work through an app, a specific app that was designed for the sanders campaign. it's a personalized text messaging app. supporters in california all day long have been texting with supporters in iowa. i talked to one voter in fort dodge, iowa who said she had been called, e-mailed, she received a phone call and a text message as well. that's what this campaign is trying to do. it's a test of something we have not seen before. the sanders campaign are not doing a brick and mortar operation of this. they're doing a virtual operation of this. it is the first social media test in today's age if you can organize for the iowa caucuses. we talk about those university towns, the university of iowa,
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ames, and iowa state. luther college. that's where senator sanders believes he will defeat hillary clinton, if he's able to, tonight. jake? >> wolf blitzer, back to you in washington. >> thanks very much. we're following the breaking news. the initial indications we're getting from some republican caucus sites, a much larger turnout than originally expected. good news for donald trump. i want to go to jim scuitto. jim, what are you seeing? >> reporter: we're speaking to the precinct chair here. they're expecting record turnout here in greenfield. they're prepared for record-shattering turnout. about 1 in 5 -- this is a rough count -- are first-time voters. that's a combination of young people, never voted before, but also older people who voted
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before, but not in a gop caucus like this one. both of those early indicators that that precinct chair might be right. it is rural and agricultural, but they have correctly predicted the winner of the iowa caucuses going back to 1996. this year unpredictable. he doesn't know how it's going to go, wolf. >> we'll stay in close touch with you. let's go to brian todd. brian, what are you seeing? >> reporter: wolf, a very exciting scene here. this is a fiscally conservative district, but four years ago they had 222 people show up to vote. it looks like this is easily going to top that. check out this line here. these are first-time voters and people changing party affiliations. we're going to show you this because the line just in the last minute or so has really started to get longer, out this door. come on out here. look at this.
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they're braving the cold weather, the possible snow later, to line up outside this door. it's gotten longer and longer in the last minute and a half. we want to show you this line over here. this is the critical line. people changing party affiliations and people voting for the first time. some of them told me that they're doing this to vote for donald trump. but some of them also told me they're doing this to vote against donald trump. we're going to see how this plays out when the ballot is counted. we're going to bring that to you live when it is counted. you're seeing this in realtime. it's very dynamic now. >> it certainly is. potentially good news for donald trump. i want to take a look at the democratic side. pamela brown is there. pamela, what are you seeing where you are? >> reporter: already some first-time caucusgoers are arriving here at this caucus site. des moines and all of them so far say they are feeling the
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bern. they're here to support bernie sanders. several people said they voted for barack obama eight years ago. this year they're not really sure. already we're seeing the different people from campaigns give them swag, try to lure them over to their side. there are also several people who are split who voted for barack obama years ago. this particular site went in favor of barack obama, but this year it is half and half. some are saying now they want to go favor hillary clinton. they feel like they want a continuation of barack obama's legacy. others are saying they don't like the status quo. they want something different. they feel like bernie sanders can bring that political revolution. what is clear here is that people here are ready to battle it out for those uncommitted voters and those in the groups that don't meet the minimum threshold. they have various strategies. one voter is bringing a bag of snickers to try to lure in voters to her group. one other voters says he treats
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this like the final minutes of the football game. you do whatever you can to win. it's clear there's going to be a lot of action at this caucus site tonight. >> tom foreman is at another democratic caucus site. the rules are different from the republicans. explain the difference. >> reporter: absolutely, wolf. this is precinct 7. as you can see, they're expecting 250 to 300 democrats here to come and caucus. i think with a half an hour to go they're already hitting 200, maybe 250 with the line out the door. how they're going to decide among their candidates here is by actually gathering in areas that represent the candidate. the hillary clinton is over in this area. you can see it growing already. the martin o'malley section is right over here. the bernie sanders section is over here. once everyone is in place, our cnn counters will show you immediately how many people, what percentage, is in each
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area. then comes a time when they can realign themselves. so if somebody from the hillary clinton wanted to come across and go over this way, they could and join this group and the number would change accordingly. likewise, this number would go down if somebody from the sanders camp went over to the hillary clinton side. people are trying to get the undecided voters to join in. and if anybody doesn't get over 15%, these voters would have to decide what they're going to do. are they going to go home or branch off to the other groups here? then you will have the completion of the caucus. everyone will be standing with the candidate's name that they want to back. those percentages will be clear.
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they'll be mixed in with percentages all across the state and we'll know who has been chosen in the first real vote of the presidential race for the democrats. >> i want to show our viewers what's going on. look at these various caucus sites. a lot of people are showing up. potentially good news for donald trump. maybe good news for bernie sanders as well. they're showing up early. the doors are supposed to close at 8:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. central. anderson, looks potentially like a big night. the weather is holding up. a good night for people to go out and caucus. >> that's very true. there was concerns about a big storm. it doesn't seem like that's going to be taking place. gloria, david, when you look at a l of people turning out, obviously the devil is in the details. depends on who they are, are they new caucus ggoers, age.
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>> i think you have to be careful in evaluating these various kinds of reports. what matters is how is it relative to past caucuses? there are some precincts that will be very large turnouts in any given caucus, but are they exceeding the number of people who have appeared eed in past caucuses? >> we'll know more once we start getting some entrance polls. >> we know each campaign has a model that they're working off of. like ted cruz's campaign just wants a regular caucus. they don't want a lot more caucusgoers because they know that would mean donald trump's passion and his fan base has translated into votes. >> to people who have never gone to caucuses before. >> and the flip side of that coin is bernie sanders who also wants a huge turnout because that would mean that his younger voters have come out to support
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him. and we know from jeff's reporting that they believe 170,000 caucusgoers would be their sweet spot and they would be able then to overtake hillary clinton. >> it's confusing. on the democratic side, for bernie sanders' young supporters, if they're going out in the town where they're going to college, that doesn't necessarily translate. >> when barack obama was running in the caucuses, colleges were out. the caucuses were early. the kids were home. they caucused in their hometowns. >> why is that better for the candidate? >> it's better because the way the delegates are distributed is across the state. so you can have 1,000 people at a caucus in a college town, but you're still going to get the same number of delegates whereas you can get beaten in some of these rural areas where the kids aren't home. >> i do think school is out tomorrow in a lot of places because of weather concerns or initial reports were that they were going to be, so that might
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help in terms of encouraging young people to go back to their home districts. a lot ahead. we're going to be following every minute, every hour, of this late into the night, early into the morning. coming up, we're getting more new information about turnout and how much it maybe helping donald trump or bernie sanders. we're standing by to hear from top candidates at visiting caucus sites.
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we're following the breaking news right now. looks like the crowds are gathering in full force at democratic and republican caucus sites throughout iowa right now. potentially, potentially if this holds up, good news for donald trump, for bernie sanders as well. i want to go to one of those caucus sites right now. jim sciutto is at a republican caucus site. what does it seem like inside and outside, jim? >> reporter: we are inside the jim here. there are about 250 people here so far. doors have only been open a half an hour. that's edging up near their all-time record of 330 voters. we just asked for a show of hands of this crowd of 250 people. 57 of them raised their hands as first-time participants in the
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gop caucus. some are first-time voters. others have never taken part in a gop caucus. but that more than 1 in 5, wolf, here tonight are folks who have not voted before, not taken part before in a gop caucus. >> jim, stand by. i want to go to brian todd. he's at another republican caucus site. brian, what are you seeing there? >> wolf, an incredible turnout. they're easily going to top 2012. i can predict that right now. this line going out the door. these are the first-time voters and the voters who are changing their party affiliation. they keep coming and coming. this gentleman right here, who is a volunteer, allowed me to count the number of new voter registrations. we have more than 50 already. thank you very much. also we're told, wolf, just now that they've had to bring in some new ballots because they're
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starting to run out of them. this is a republican caucus site. it's one of the fastest growing towns in iowa. they had 222 people show up to vote last time. this is going out the door. there are already more than 150 people in the sanctuary. we're going to be bringing you in the ballot in realtime. some of them are changing affiliations in order to vote for donald trump. some of them are changing affiliations in order to vote against him. i'm going to ask my photojournalist to come with me. we're going to try to get some slack and come out the door. sorry, folks. we're just trying to move through the crowd. we apologize. look how dynamic this crowd is, wolf. they're all the way out the door here. come on over here. again, we are in just one republican district. it is one of the faster growing districts in the state. this is considered a business conservative district, fiscal conservatives. not a big evangelical presence here, so it's going to be see
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how many votes ted cruz can pull in this precinct. john, they want us to come this way. we're going to walk outside. hold on one second. ho opening the door. hi, guys. how are you? the line is going out to the parking lot there, wolf. they're predicting snow tonight later on. possibly freezing rain. doesn't matter to these folks. they want to come in here and participate in this caucus. we're showing you it in realtime. >> i'm going to get back to you. very enthusiastic republican turnout over there. record numbers potentially. once again, that could be very good news for donald trump. new republican voters registering as well. the republican side looks like it is a big turnout. i want to check in with tom foreman. he's at a democratic caucus right now. what does it look like over there right now, tom?
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>> reporter: this is out on the floor there where you see the supporters of hillary clinton and bernie sanders facing off with each other. can you raise your hand for a moment if you're a first-time caucusgoer. we have a couple here. there are many more up ahead. i talked to the precinct captain a short time ago. i said how many first-timers are you seeing. she shook her head. she said an awful, awful lot. this line didn't exist at all about 30 minutes ago. and now look. here it goes down the hall. all those people inside already. they thought they would get 250 to 300. i think they're easily going over that already. we still have 20 minutes until time. you can come all the way down here. it goes all the way outside and heading all the way out into the parking lot out here, wolf. so a tremendous number of people
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out here. look at the line outside. and if i can ask you again, how many of you are first-time caucusgoers? look at the hands, wolf. keep them up. this really is going to be an unusual night here for precinct 7. they are already easily hitting the numbers they expected and going over them with no sign of it stopping yet. >> big turnout on the republican side. we see where you are a big turnout on the democratic side as well. potentially, potentially very significant. they're supposed to close those doors in about 19 minutes or so. i don't know if they're going to be able to with all those people waiting in line where tom foreman is. i want to check in with pamela brown in des moines. what does it look like there? >> reporter: it is already starting to be a packed house. people are filling in. we still have around 19 minutes
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to go before the doors close. the precinct captain said i've never seen so many young voters here and first-time caucusgoers. many of them we've spoken with are all bernie fans. we spoke to one 17-year-old who will be 18 come november. he said i'm here to vote for bernie because i feel like he really cares about my education. that is unique to this precinct. here on the right side these are all the people filling up the pews for hillary clinton here on the right side. on the left side here you have people in clusters for bernie sanders. also, we spoke to many people who are still undecided. they said in these final days they've been talking a lot about it. they haven't made up their minds. so the different campaigns have been talking to those uncommitted voters trying to pull them over to their side. everyone i've spoken to said it's a competitive night. we see the polls. we see how it is neck and neck
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between bernie sanders and hillary clinton. we're willing to do whatever it takes to bring those uncommitted voters to our side of the house. >> big numbers presumably at least in these caucus sites that we're seeing. potentially very, very good news, very encouraging words for both donald trump and bernie sanders. they want big turnouts. first time people registering, they want that tonight in order to score a victory. let's go back to jake and dana in des moines. jake? >> thanks, wolf. cnn has learned some news about the man who at least according to polls is in fourth place here in iowa. dana, a week from tomorrow, we're all going to be doing this again for the new hampshire primary. almost every single candidate is going to be going directly from here to new hampshire to campaign except for the man in fourth place, dr. ben carson. what have we learned? >> ben carson is going to go
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back to florida to his home regardless of how he does tonight here in iowa. he's going to go there for several days. then afterwards he's not going to go to south carolina. he's not going to go to new hampshire. he's going to come to washington, d.c. and he's going to do that because the national prayer breakfast is on thursday. that's where he got himself on the political map attending that prayer breakfast and giving it to president obama at the time. he became a hero among conservatives and evangelicals especially. >> very unusual. >> very unusual. >> to be announcing you're going to go home to rest for a few days, not going on to the next site. he's going to be coming out and speaking at 9:15 local and 10:15 eastern to go home and get ahead of the storm. >> if you want to be president of the united states, you don't go home to florida. that's bottom line.
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if you want to signal to your supporters that you want it, that you're hungry for it, you've got to be out there doing it too. he's not doing it. it's very unusual. >> very unusual news that cnn has just learned. chris moody breaking the story. wolf, back to you in washington. >> very significant. we're standing by right at the top of the hour for the first time. we're going to be able to share with you, our viewers, the results, some of the trends with the entrance polls we've been conducting. the doors are supposed to close at 8:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. central. we're going to give you some trends. what's going on between this battle between donald trump and ted cruz, hillary clinton and bernie sanders? the information we'll share with you for the first time when the caucus doors close at the top of the hour.
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at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like bill splitting equals nitpicking. but i only had a salad. it was a buffalo chicken salad. salad. iowans only have a few minutes left to show up in
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caucus rooms around the state. we're seeing we are seeing early signs of turn outs at reports of unusually high voter registration as well. closing in at the same time as the first results of the night. this contest may be more important than ever. it's boiling down to a pair of very intense two-way matchups. for the republicans, it's donald trump versus ted cruz with trump trying to show he can translate star power into votes. we are watching marco rubio and counting on a strong third place showing to be a major player. it's hillary clinton and bernie sanders fighting to protect the status because of a powerful challenger. john king is over at the magic wall. we are getting results very soon. what are you looking at? >> not too long before we start filling in the map. what are we looking for. they are listed in alphabet cal
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order. once the results start to come in. what are we going to look for? this is santorum. can ted cruz do what rick santorum do? run it up in the small counties with evangelicals. if you don't see a lot of ted cruz, that would be a warning. who wins the battle of the suburbs. marco rubio hopes to tonight, but donald trump wants to prove he is not only winning with some evangelicals, but traditional republicans. they will see if anyone can replicate ron paul. that's coming out of ted cruise. can rand paul replicate his dad? we will go to the democratic
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side. this is the map that put barack obama on the national political stage when he won in eastern iowa and in the middle of the state. the college students and the names and where the people are. the question for hillary is can she win the democrats here? remember last time the race had many candidates and it was a three-way race. hillary clinton came in third. people forget the john edwards. how did bernie sanders do. barack obama and end of the names. can she keep her rural support. take polk county. bernie sanders is strong and hillary clinton has to hold her. >> let's get an update. good explanation. we will get the results very soon. we want to get an update of what's going on. jake?
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>> obviously nobody is looking at the turn out more closely than the campaigns that need good turn out or the ones that don't want to be out to be too good. for the clinton campaign, they want it to be under 170,000. >> for the cruz campaign, they want it to be under 135,000. i was texting with the source who said they are seeing turn out. it appears to be higher than normal. that's not good for them. he was saying they hope that things could change. >> the theory is that for new voters, they will be coming to vote for the first time as caucus goers for people like bernie sanders or donald trump. bryanna keilar is in des moines at clinton headquarters. obviously the former first lady and secretary of state has been prepairing for this night for a
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long time. what is she doing as she watches and waits for the returns to come in? >> approximate are she has been relaxing in her hotel and also preparing two speeches. in case she wins here in iowa and one in case she loses. you can imagine this playing out like a scene from west wing as she works with the speech writer having these two versions of the speech that she will get when she comes across town from the hotel. this reflects the fact that she is prepared for any out come, but also the reality of just how much 2008 looms so large in her mind and in the mind of those working for her and her campaign. it was a stinging loss and they are prepared for anything. still i will add confident that the indicators and the stability of the polls overtime is working in their favor. jake? >> and obviously if it's true that turn out is high, they have
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to be excited at the trump campaign headquarters. >> that's right. and since we are talking about the democrats at this moment, the reason they wanted to be high is he is appealing to so many young voters. if you think about it, president obama was in office four years ago. there hasn't been a democratic caucus in eight years. a lot of newer voters are younger. >> the year that obama won was 240,000. astronomically high number for the iowa caucuses. back to you in washington. >> thanks very much. once again, less than five minutes from now the doors will be closing around the state of iowa. that's when we will be able to share with you the results of the entrance polls. we will get trends on what's going on. i will go back to jim who is agreeing to be on iowa at a republican caucus site. there is a big number of people
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who showed up. >> that's right. five precincts here. let me give you a scene filling the high school auditorium's bleachers. we will ask them to raise their hands. look at how many of them fall into the category. raise your happened if you are a first time caucus participant. it looks like more than in five for me now. some of them folks who are participating for the first time in a caucus. maybe meeting that precinct chair that they will break records here tonight. >> stand by. i want to go to brian todd in a republican caucus site. are people inside now? >> they are inside. the place is filling to capacity very, very quickly. you said a minute ago the doors will shut. these folks are not ready for
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that to happen. it goes all the way out to the parking lot and it's full. we don't need a show of hands. they have been channelled over to this line. they are filling up the ballots and you see them doing that right there. the photojournalists will take you inside and show you a place that is bustling and filling up quickly. you have to push past the folks here. bear with me. hi, sir. if i can shoot past you here. this is one of the fastest growing districts in the state. about 53,000 people in this district. i don't think this talk us is going to start on time. they're getting people in here. check this out. they are bustling with people. standing room only here at the walls and almost every seat is full. people are still filing in. they have to do the allegiance and get representatives a chance to get up and speak in favor of
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their candidate. this is a republican caucus and lots of first time voters and changing affiliations. it's exciting because that may bode well for donald trump. we are going to see and show thaw balloting in realtime tonight. that's what makes it so exciting. really dynamic situation in the sanctuary hall. >> all those republicans, the ones we are checking in on, big numbers showing up. i take it you have been showing us the long lines. >> they are trying to get the last people in here before they close the door. it is still out into the parking lot if you go this way and in here. as they work down, this is precinct seven up here. i have been told they may have as many as 100 more people than
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expected. they might have the precinct down stairs that expected about 50 and they may have twice as many. they have to fit all the other people in here. you are looking at bernie sanders supporters. this is every person connected to the caucuses and they said this is a really astonishing number of people and they are saul caucused and saying they are here for the first time. there is a remarkable turn out and i will tell you this. you see the one room down there that said uncommitted on the left? that room virtually empty.
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are good news for bernie sanders on the democratic side. good news for donald trump on the republican side. we are about to get the first indications. this is the cnn key alert based on the early entrance polls that we are getting. it looks like there is a three-man race on the republican side. donald trump, ted cruz and marco rubio. that's on the republican side. we project they are the early leaders based on the snapshot that we are getting people as they were walking in. this is an early snapshot. on the democratic side, a two-other than race based on the cnn entrance polls. hillary clinton and bernie sanders. they are clearly in a close race right now. we are going to get more information as we get more information from the entrance

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