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tv   Situation Room With Wolf Blitzer  CNN  February 9, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm PST

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coalescing around one of the four establishment candidates? >> yeah. is there push for marco rubio or jeb bush? is that going to work at all or not? we'll see. dana bash stay here. that's it for this special edition of "the lead." dana and i will be back with cnn's special coverage of the new hampshire primary 7:00 p.m. eastern. i now turn you over to wolf blitzer in a place we like to call "the situation room." >> who wins new hampshire depends on who turns out to vote. just moments from now we'll bring you the first answers to that key question. we want to welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. i'm wolf blitzer, you're in "the situation room." >> i'm anderson cooper with new hampshire's secretary of state predicting a record turnout. we've just received the first exit polling data on who is casting ballots. the question, does the mix favor one party or another, one candidate or another. we'll crunch the hours and bring them to you throughout the next two hours.
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>> it's going to be very exciting coverage that begins right now. in addition, as always, we've got our correspondents, our cameras and all the major events, the prime locations tonight along with our expert analysis left, right and certain. let's begin with the republicans first in the campaign frenzy leading up to this very moment, including, we should warn you, some pretty rough language from donald trump. here's cnn's jim acosta. >> if you're not supporting me, don't tell me. >> reporter: with voters streaming into the polls, the battle for new hampshire is almost over. and the gop candidates have the bruises to prove it. jeb bush is still sparring with donald trump. >> there are no solutions, nothing serious about his message and at some point we get to the point where we actually have to offer solutions. >> reporter: and trump is offering no apologies for repeating a supporter's below the belt attack on ted cruz. >> [ bleep ]. >> okay. you're not allowed to say, and i never expect to hear that from
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you again. she said i never expect to hear that from you again. she said he's a [ bleep ]. that's terrible, terrible. >> no big deal, says trump. >> well, i didn't say it, somebody else said it. >> reporter: cruz isn't buying it. >> donald does not handle losing very well. he didn't like that he lost in iowa. his response often is to simply yell and insult and engage in profanity. >> reporter: the brash billionaire is more worried about repeating his mistakes in iowa, where his ground game fell flat. >> the polls don't mean anything if we don't get up, don't get out, don't vote. >> reporter: so he deployed one of his secret weapons, daughter ivanka, to persuade any remaining undecideds. marco rubio is hoping minds were made up days ago well before he was busted by opponents for regurgitating talking points at last week's debate, a performance that inspired democratic activists to dress up as rubio robots who scuffled
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with the florida senator supporters. rubio is blaming the press. >> yeah, that's a media thing. for voters? voters are excited about it. especially in narp. voters in new hampshire are serious about this. they understand what's at stake here. >> reporter: but chris christie isn't letting rubio forget. >> the fact is, that wasn't tough on saturday night. and it wasn't tough on senator rubio. they haven't seen tough yet. tough is hillary clinton. >> reporter: still, the surprise of the night could belong to john kasich. who has staked his campaign on new hampshire and won the state's first votes in dixville notch. >> when you win big in dixville notch like i did, what else can you say? it was huge. i just saw trump. i said trump, i crushed you. he said yeah, you did, you killed me. >> jim acosta is joining us from manchester. so primary day finally here.
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you're over there at trump headquarters. any word from the trump camp as they await the results? >> reporter: well, wolf, donald trump just returned from some last-minute stops at polling places, answered a couple of questions and insisted his showing in iowa was a strong second, nothing to feel bad about. the campaign is feeling very good about tonight. they do not see this as a repeat in iowa. i just had a chance to go inside and eyeball the election watch party headquarters here behind me. it is nothing like those arena-like venues where you see those supporters cram into. it should make for pretty atmosphere later on tonight, wolf. >> should indeed. all right, jim acosta, thank you. as we said right at the top, new hampshire's secretary of state is predicting a record turnout with another top official saying it could even be picking up a bit right now. our brian todd is standing by at a polling place in the town of hudson, new hampshire. brian, what are you seeing in terms of people actually showing up at the polls? >> reporter: wolf, a tremendous
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amount of energy here in hudson. the story as you mentioned is turnout. check this out, this line goes out the door and we're just getting into the rush shower crush of voters. we have three hours left until the polls close in this precinct. if we can't get back in, we can't show you how the process works. we'll do that for you right now. this is what's cool about covering these balloting stations here. we'll show you how the process works on live tv in realtime. here's how it deposgoes. people will line up here, they check in at these desks over here. they are asked whether they're democrat or republican. then they're handed a ballot and they go vote. it takes the average voter at about 35 seconds to cast their ballot. now, if a voter says that they are undeclared, then they are asked -- excuse me sha, guys, t you very much -- then they are asked which way they want to vote, democrat or republican. they're given pink ballot for republicans, blue ballot for
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democrats and they cast their vote. that's critical because the undeclared voters are a crucial part of this turnout here. once they cast their ballots, they come out and if you're undeclared and go one way or the other and want to reregister as an undeclared voter then you stand in this line and then go out and you're done. now, the undeclared voters here are a dominant factor in this polling station. many, many people have been undeclared here. many of them that we saw have gone to the republicans. as of an hour ago they had almost 6,000 voters come through here. the majority of them, about 1200, had gone republican so we'll see who that benefits. we're told that the undeclared voters, at least the white collar undeclared voters might benefit john kasich. the blue collar undeclared voters might benefit donald trump. bernie sanders gets the bump according to analyst on the democratic side. >> all right, thanks very much. we'll stay in close touch with you as well. whether it's the turnout, the exiting polling, the
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republican race for second place or the possibility for something unexpected happening, john king, host of cnn's "inside politics," gloria borger and mike rogers, david gergen, and amanda carpenter. he's a trump supporter, she not so much. also sanders supporter and obama critic bill press who's a cnn political commentator and finally not just because today is mardi gras, a democratic party official as well, cnn political commentator, donna brazile. there's so much to watch for. in terms of the republican side, there is a real fight for second and third right now. >> yeah. i think there is. and that's what makes this evening so fascinating because if you assume that because donald trump has been first in
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the last, what, 75 polls that he's going to win tonight, what we see is a bunch-up here of the republican mainstream. and we saw marco rubio get a bronze medal in iowa, but everyone paid attention to him after that. he had a bad debate saturday night. and now the question is will this muddle of establishment republicans start sorting itself out. >> will there be a narrowing of the republican field after new hampshire. >> there will be a narrowing. the question is how many do we lose and that depends on the margins. first and foremost, trump needs a win. we all expect he's going to get a win but he needs a win. if he doesn't get that win, it's a trap door beneath him. if he loses two in a row, i think his candidacy will collapse. >> you think so? >> if you lose two in a row and your brand is winning, yes, as you go south. he's been ahead in the last 377 polls in new hampshire have had donald trump with a pretty healthy lead. so then the question is what's
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the margin. but a win is a win. if trump wins new hampshire, he's on the map again, going south as the leader. he's already running harsh ads against cruz in south carolina. a trump win in new hampshire, we're back to an unpredictable race. who is the center right candidate. rubio had momentum. did the debate stop it. kasich thinks that he can climb into second place. jeb bush felt really great the last week. chris christie peeled the skin off rubio in the debate. the question is did it help him. carly fiorina, even if he gets 4% or 6%, that comes from somebody. that goes to affect those margins. ted cruz would come in third which he would claim as a moral victory. there's tea party voters there, libertarians, but the possibility of cruz coming into third place which would give him a moral victory. but that center right splintering, look, we will lose one, maybe two candidates if not tonight, by tomorrow. it will all depend on the margins. >> david, a lot of voters have not made up their minds,
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particularly on the republican side. >> it's very fluid on the republican side. new hampshire is predictably unpredictab unpredictable. i do think it's all about an expectations game. that is if trump wins, he's expected to win by ten points or more. he's been ahead by double digits in all the polls. if that margin narrows to five, six, seven points, the person that comes close to him is going to get a lot of publicity coming out of here and a big bump. beating the expectations game is really, really important. >> what are you looking for tonight? >> nobody in these presidential primaries loses. always the spin is i came in 15th place and i am a winner. >> it was a strong 15th. >> because nobody thought i'd show up and ride the bus. i well tell you one of the things that they're looking for is how can i spin out of this to keep money alive for the next state. that's really what you're seeing. all these super pacs have changed the game politically in presidential primaries. certainly i've learned that in this cycle. where you don't have to be
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number one in iowa and number one in new hampshire and everyone else goes away. they'll have enough money to keep playing to a longer term strategy. >> do they need new money to get to south carolina? >> john kasich, for example, needs money to continue. >> bush has money regardless. >> bush has money no matter what. kasich needs it, rubio wants it. >> i would just be careful about over emphasizing the spuper pac. yes, you can have a super pac that can help you. they can run ads and destroy the other candidates or boost your candidacy, they cannot pay your staffers. they cannot pay your nuts and bolts day-to-day campaign operation. if chris christie is in fifth or sixth place tonight he won't raise any more money and will go. if kasich disappoints dramatically, if he's second or third, he'll stay in the race. if he disappoints, he's not going to raise any money. even bush, there's no reason to believe he would get out before south carolina, he's going to
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have to start having tough conversations. if your name is bush and you keep coming in fifth or sixth, it's time to have tough conversations. >> the bush people believe they have to beat marco rubio. just talking about expectations, the democrats, if hillary clinton loses by less than double digits, they might be able to spin that into a victory of sorts. comeback kid, 1992, bill clinton. comeback gal. >> gloria, i would think that bush has to beat kasich more than rubio. >> no, they -- well, no, because kasich is not as much of a threat to them. rubio is the real threat to them. >> but if kasich punches way above his weight tonight, and that's whaert everybody is lookg for, that would hurt them. >> and they believe rubio is more of a threat in the long run and they might be wrong about that. >> wherever you end up here, do you end up in a position where
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you can make a pitch to your donors to keep you alive. that's the strategy, even second or third place is really important for them but it's all about can i spin this into the next state to survive one more state. >> your former boss, ted cruz, can spin this saying, look, new hampshire wasn't a great area for me, not a huge number of evangelicals but we're heading to the south, this is prime ground f me, i need to stay in this team. >> well, sure. and new hampshire is a place for the establishment people to sort it out. but if donald trump does win new hampshire, nobody can ignore that he's real anymore and then ted cruz has a very strong argument to say i'm the only one that's taken on donald trump and beat him. now they'll go into south carolina. trump already views cruz as a threat. that's why he's putting out attack ads against cruz right now. cruz will say i'm the only one that can beat him and also the terrain in south carolina is very much like iowa. i can win again. so get on board. if you want to stop trump, vote for me. i expect that to be the
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argument. it's the one i would tell him to make. >> jeffrey, do you believe trump has to win by a certain margin? >> no, a win is a win is a win. but to amanda's point, if he wins and ted cruz goes south and says that, there will be a coronary like you've never seen throughout the entire republican establishment if they come to realize those are their two choices. because the establishment this year has never gotten their act together. they have become if i may fat and lazy and out of shape. they were not ready for this. they have controlled things for so long, they were totally taken aback by this. >> there's too many vanity campaigns in that lane. they need to get real and understand one or two has a shot and the other people have to drop out because the big field only helps donald trump. >> what about on the democratic side. hillary clinton, if she gets in close to single digits to bernie sanders, is that going to be spun to a win? >> oh, absolutely. the clintons are one for two in
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terms of winning new hampshire but two for two in terms of spinning new hampshire. so if she comes in a close second, she's going to spin it. the democratic establishment tonight is watching this to see just how well bernie sanders is doing, not just with young people but also blue collar individuals. the so-called mill towns or former mill towns. i was there for five days and you start to get a flavor for what's going on. i'm telling you, i saw a lot of excitement. now, the skbpindependents, i do know what happens when you go to a bar and everybody says they're undeclared. those undeclared voters are coming out tonight and i think the secretary of state is right we will see a historic turnout. >> i think it's very interesting, first of all, this whole dynamic in new hampshire between the democrats. bernie is trying to win by the biggest margin that he can and hillary is trying to lose by the smallest margin she can.
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i've never seen a campaign like this. but for the spin, obviously the clinton people say if we can get it down then we've got a big victory. the spin that i've heard from the sanders campaign, which i love, is, look, in iowa she won by 0.25% and they declared it a huge victory. so for us anything other 0.25% is momentum. >> we've got to take a quick break. up next, the first exit polling numbers starting with the key question which did voters settle on the candidate they voted for, how long did they stay undecided. answers to that next if we look at a live picture. some of those voters still waiting to cast their ballots in this first primary of 2016. at safelite, we know how busy your life can be. oh no this mom didn't have time to worry about a cracked windshield. so she scheduled at and with safelite's exclusive "on my way text" she knew exactly when i'd be there. hi, steve with safelite. thanks for your text! i replaced her windshield...
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take a look over there. beautiful picture. trump headquarters in manchester, new hampshire. polls closing at 7:00 p.m. eastern in most parts of the state, 8:00 p.m. in the rest. right now our first clear read on who's been casting ballots. one question, how late did people wait to decide who to vote for today. our cnn political reporter, david chalian, is here with the answer. what is the answer on how late people waited to make up their mind? >> new hampshire voters are famous for waiting until the last minute but this republican race remained really volatile and fluid until the end. take a look at these exit poll numbers. 46% said of republicans said they decided in the last few days, 53% said earlier than that. okay. and then we asked what about the recent debates, did that have an impact on your vote. 65% of republicans said it was
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an important factor in their vote. 33% said no. so that was -- that debate came saturday night. folks weren't deciding. that was an important factor. it just shows you how fluid the race was on the republican side. >> what about the democratic side? >> the democratic side was a little more solidified. only 22% of democrats today said that they decided in the last few days. that's different than 77% who had decided earlier. and they had a debate, of course, last week at the end of this process and the numbers there show that 53% of democrats said that debate was a factor in their decision, but 45% said it was not a factor in their decision. this year i look at this and said if i'm the bernie sanders camp and i've been leading in the polls this whole time, i look at these numbers and say, hey, this race was solidified on the democratic side pretty early on. the debate didn't move a huge swath of the electorate and a lot of the democratic electorate had locked in on their decision earlier. >> i know you and our team are going through a whole bunch of numbers right now and will be
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sharing more throughout this hour and next hour as well. david, thanks very much. anderson, back to you. >> let's check back in with our panel. john king, how do you read those numbers in terms of the debate seemed to have made an impact on a high number of republican voters? >> reflex tells you that if they processed like the news media did, that it was a bad night for rubio, that it might have halted his momentum. sometimes the voters are counter intuitive to what we think. but if so many people thought the debate was so important and clearly if you're watching the beginning of the debate was not a good night for marco rubio, but the first few exchanges with chris christie were bad, i can tell you he was moving. there was no question rubio was moving up heading into that debate. if that stopped it, that gets back to what we're talking about. one of the big questions will be what are the margins between rubio, kasich, bush, christie and where does cruz fit in there. >> and yet if you have so many republicans undecided up until
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just recently, a lot of the polls then really are called into question, are they not? >> exactly. look, this is a very unsettled republican race. it has been. you look at the size of the field and new hampshire, i think, reflects that when people say they decided late. you know, this is a race where people were watching the debate at the last minute. they were seeing the candidates come to new hampshire. and i think it reflects the kind of nature of this entire republican race that we've seen so far. it's usually the democrats who are unsettled and the republicans who are pretty settled. and this time they have flipped because the democrats decided a while ago and they're much more settled and much happier, by the way, about their choice. >> so 46% of republicans just the last few days, 22% of democrats. >> exactly. >> there's a couple of reasons. number one, there's been a civil war going on in the republican party sips halfway through the bush term. populism versus establishment,
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tea party versus establishment. so that's part of it. that's being litigated in this presidential primary. but you also have a very deep and qualified field. so when you go in the suburbs, you have a two-term governor. some republicans might not like their politics but you have a two-term governor bush, two-term governor kasich, florida, ohio, ted cruz and marco rubio who came in as tea party stars and the disrupter, donald trump. when you're at rallies in the past week, these republican rallies are like two miles apart. so you see somebody at a bush rally who shows up at the christie rally. that's what they're doing is shopping. >> david. >> i think those numbers of people who decide late and the debate influenced them is extraordinarily high. i'm really like whoa. and when we watch that debate, we knew rubio had slipped badly, but you had the sense it was one of those naked moments in politics when you suddenly see into the inner core of a candidate and you make a judgment. is this person up to this job or not. i do think it may have really, really hurt rubio far more than
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we thought. but by the same token, it may well have helped some of the governors who showed that night like bush, kasich and christie. >> the other question is the undecideds -- >> undeclared. >> or undeclared as they call them in new hampshire. which way are they breaking. brian todd was saying a lot went to the republican side but that's just anecdotally. >> i think we've got to give chris christie some credit. i think it's very conceivable that he gets a bump out of this and probably pulls some votes from donald trump. if you're an undecided new hampshire voter and you maybe like donald trump's brash personality and the way he shakes things up but are turned off by some of the comments that maybe he made about ted cruz in the last couple of days, i could see that type of voter going for chris christie who has a similar personality -- >> well, he was supposed to be a tell it like it is guy until donald trump came along. >> believe it or not somebody else was telling it more.
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>> i don't think the undeclared voter went necessarily for the tough person or the tough guy or the bully. i think they were looking for someone who they believed could bring people together and that's been, you know, governor kasich. he's been the sort of candidate that has been able to go and walk into the barber shops and visit the malls and hold the town hall meetings. this is my anecdotal. i saw more bumper stickers, kasich bumper stickers. >> he says he held more than 100 town halls. he was living there basically. >> now, this is a very smart strategy, i believe, on the part of john kasich and he is the most independent, i believe, the most unpredictable, almost one the democrats could support. and one factor i'd like to see after this is all over is these undeclareds, when they walk in, if i were a democrat or leaning democrat, an undeclared, i'd probably want to have some mischief in the republican primary tonight and vote republican. >> oh, that's just you.
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>> and this may be part of it. we are seeing record turnout. we'll see how the numbers end up. people don't want this show to end. everything that happens tonight is really just about positioning for south carolina and then going into s.e.c. tuesday because donald trump may be running the greatest reality show we've ever seen and we don't want to see it cancelled. >> can i say something about kasich. the thing that i'm going to look for tonight with kasich is whether he wins republican voters. because remember john mccain, john mccain won new hampshire by winning independent voters, so-called undeclared voters. but then it was a problem for him after that. he needs -- kasich needs to show that he can win with republicans, and this is going to be an issue for him when you head to other primaries that might be not so hospitable to him. >> i don't think it's the show. i think these voters in these
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early primary states and i've been in new hampshire and iowa and south carolina, take this very seriously. i think that late break is they're still trying to determine which candidate fits the kind of america that i'm looking for. one thing we saw in iowa, the candidates that did the best on national security scored exactly in the order of which they won. trump, cruz and rubio scored the highest of republican voters in iowa. as a matter of fact, the candidate who had the weakest national security position was rand paul, the isolationist, and he was the first one to fall out after iowa. i think you're going to see a little bit of that issue focus for these voters. that's why i think it was 65%. they were looking for that one thing on an issue that made them comfortable. >> and you think that issue was national security? >> well, the polling that we have saw with the work we were doing is that national security was number one or number two in every one of those early states. >> certainly among republicans. 6% said terrorism on the
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democratic side. just had inside the democratic race how hillary clinton, bernie sanders spent primary day and the mood inside their campaign. see see me. don't stare at me. see me. see me. see me to know that psoriasis is just something that i have. i'm not contagious. see me to know that i won't stop. until i find what works. discover cosentyx, a different kind of medicine for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. proven to help the majority of people find clear or almost clear skin. 8 out of 10 people saw 75% skin clearance at 3 months. while the majority saw 90% clearance. do not use if you are allergic to cosentyx. before starting, you should be tested for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infections
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decision day in new hampshire. the first in the nation primary now in its final few hours. hillary clinton spent much of the day shaking hands, greeting
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voters, thanking volunteers. our final cnn/wmur tracking poll had her trailing bernie sanders by 26 points. if she manages to defy the polls, as she did back in 2008, it would be one for the history books. our senior washington correspondent jeff zeleny is joining us from clinton primary headquarters in new hampshire. what kind of results do they say they're realistically expecting tonight? >> reporter: well, wolf, ever since she stepped foot in the state of new hampshire some eight days ago after iowa, they have been lowering expectations every single day. never mind all the history that the clinton campaign, the clinton family has in this state. of course 1992 is a pivotal moment and 2008 was a pivotal moment for her. they are saying they can't win. when you talk to them privately and some of her supporters, they believe she can win. the polls are all over the board. because of the independent voters we've been talking to and about all day long, some who are playing in the republican
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primary, they simply don't know but this is much closer than the 25 points would suggest. i am told that most sides believe this is within five points or so and that is not a lot of space or so. if they get out their vote which they have been trying to do, it could be much tighter than some of our suggestions before have suggested. >> what have they been doing in these final few hours to get out the vote? >> reporter: she was aggressively working across manchester, working across southern new hampshire this morning, she was being very visible. they're working the phones behind the scenes. virtually the entire brooklyn campaign office has descended upon new hampshire. they're door knocking, they're leafletting, a lot of volunteers from boston, from washington, from new york. so the clinton campaign has descended on new hampshire to try to get those democrats out to vote. the people who have been so loyal to the clintons in the past. wolf, this is a different state. the population has changed in the last eight years or so, so
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that is going to play a role in tonight's results as well. as we said, bernie sanders had a double-digit lead going into today's primary. he was out in the snow as well today visiting a polling place in concord. but overall his day was lower key than hillary clinton's. his campaign saw a surge in donations after his virtual tie in iowa. tonight they are hoping for a decisive win. brianna keilar is joining us from the sanders primary headquarters in concord. what has the sanders campaign been doing in this final push for voters in new hampshire? >> reporter: wolf, certainly bernie sanders has been taking it easy today compared to that whirlwind of a day that he had yesterday that culminated in a big concert at the university of new hampshire. today he woke up, he had breakfast with his kids, with his grandkids at perkins, which, as you know, is a chain restaurant but it's one that has become bernie sanders' go-to ever since he did all of his campaigning in iowa. and then he did visit that polling place, but afterwards.
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i should say he visited one polling place, compare that to hillary clinton's three, and then he took a walk just to relax. obviously to wind down before going back to his hotel ahead of the primary results coming in tonight. we're hearing from the campaign that they're pretty confident. they would be silly to not admit that, they are so far ahead in the polls. certainly are they admitting that they're going to clear hillary clinton by as much as we've seen in the polls? no, but they're feeling pretty good going into tonight. later tonight bernie sanders will be here at concord high school for what they are expecting will be a victory party. >> and, brianna what's next for the sanders campaign after tonight? >> reporter: they're going to be concentrating on nevada. the caucus there is a week from saturday and beyond that south carolina, the democratic primary on february 27th. bernie sanders will have a better shot at challenging hillary clinton in nevada than he will in south carolina.
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just because of the demographics, because he's definitely not doing as well with african-american voters as hillary clinton is and that's a huge factor in south carolina. but he'll be looking toward nevada and trying to build momentum on what he is expecting will be a win this evening. the other issue is are we going to see more, i guess, play when it comes to this generational divide that has developed. you know it's young people and that includes young women who gravitated toward bernie sanders over hillary clinton, democrats, of course. they didn't come out in as big of numbers i think as bernie sanders would have hoped in iowa, as much as hillary clinton's campaign feared. an i think he's hoping that they really come out here in new hampshire. since iowa, we've seen this kind of chasm open up over comments gloria steinem made over the weekend and madeleine albright basically chiding women. just ahead we're getting
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more exit polling on the voters who could decide the outcome in both races. tonight the undeclared voter. breaking news on that when we come back. whether you're out on the town... or in for the night... at&t helps keep everyone connected. right now at at&t, buy the samsung galaxy s6 and get one free. buy one get one free. no matter how you hang out, share every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy the samsung galaxy s6 and get one free. stella artois' 600 year brewing heritage. that's why we've partnered with to help women who spend millions of hours just collecting it. we can help change that and play a part in transforming their lives.
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as we've said, most of the polling stations in new hampshire close a little more than an hour from now, 7:00 p.m. eastern. all of the polling places will be closed by 8:00 p.m. eastern.
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undeclared voters in the granite state make up a huge chunk of the electorate and play a key role in every primary and they can vote for either democrats or republicans. we have some new exit polling data on them. david chalian is with us. what are we learning? >> they make up the largest chunk of the new hampshire electorate. on the democratic side, 41% of democratic primary voters today are independents or undeclareds. 55% are democrats. on the republican side, 62% are republicans, 35% are independents or undeclared. so, wolf, what you see here is that the democratic electorate has more independents in it as a share of the overall vote in that primary tonight than does the republican electorate. the republican electorate is a little bit more of the party faithful tonight. >> they are showing up and we don't know what that means for, let's say, bernie sanders on the democratic side or hillary clinton or on the republican side for donald trump.
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>> well, we know independents have fueled the trump and sanders' candidacies, there's no doubt about that. but if you are looking at these numbers and you are in the bernie sanders' camp and see 41% of the democratic electorate are independents, you look at that number. when you add in the independents, that's when sanders pulls away. if you have more than four in ten of the voters tonight, the democratic primary say they're undeclared independents, that's a recipe. that is on the surface a recipe for a sanders win. >> and a smaller percentage on the republican side, how do you read that? >> fewer new voters maybe helps the establishment guys some but trump gets a lot of blue collar rips too. >> and it could be good for trump to a degree, but i think the person the undeclared voters could really help is john
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kasich. because, you know, these are people who could vote in either party, they may be just more independent voters and those are the people that kasich has been looking to attract, also jeb bush has been looking to attract independent voters as well as chris christie, boy ty the way, the folks in that establishment group, the muddle, as we call it, are looking to pull these establishment voters, independent voters over. it's not good for cruz because those people are not going to vote for him. solid conservative republicans are going to vote for him and there aren't as many in new hampshire as there were in iowa. >> a third of voters showing up up declared in any primary is a big number. even though i think the numbers are a little misleading, you say it's bigger in the democrats, a third of your voters that show up are undeclared or independent in a primary? that's a big deal. >> how much -- >> go ahead. >> just looking at some of the numbers we were just showing, go back to that so many of the --
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so few of the democrats decided in the last few days, they were already set, right? so few of them are really impacted by the last debate where hillary really went after bernie. if you look at these numbers, the percentage of democrats who were undeclared, i saw today that 59% to 38% of those democratic undeclareds go for bernie sanders and then 30% of new hampshire voters are not -- were not there in 2008. totally new people. so hillary can't go back to those people and say you were with us before, come on back. if you add those four up, i think that looks like it could be a good night for bernie sanders. i want to say right up front, bs to anybody who says it's only because he's a next-door neighbor. >> which is something the hillary clinton campaign has been putting forward a little bit. we're going to take a quick break. in a moment we'll talk more about our exit polling. i want to get the panel's thoughts on the undeclared voters who picked a democrat. we'll be right back.
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in about an hour, most polls will close in new hampshire. others are open until 7:30 or 8:00. we'll be here throughout the night bringing you the results and expert analysis. before the break we got new exit polling on undeclared voters. we're back with the panel to get their take. in this previous polling independents were heavily favoring sanders. do you think they're the driving factor in this kind of turnout?
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>> absolutely. if secretary clinton is unable to make up the gap with unmarried women who tend to be independent or undeclared, young voters, youth, millennials, they tend to be undeclared, and first-time voters, so that's a gap. that's a gap that she's struggling with. that's a gap that she hasn't been able to overcome so far. remember, this is just the second contest. but these numbers suggest tonight, at least from what we see, that secretary clinton is struggling with those voters that she's having a problem making a closing argument with. >> yesterday on the broadcast paul who is working for a hillary clinton super pac was satisfying everybody in the campaign just needs to chill. they just need to get through new hampshire, move on to nevada, move on to south carolina where demographics are more in hillary clinton's favor and take a chill. >> yeah, that sounds like a brother who went through the 1994 campaign when gary hart
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came out of nowhere in a heavy snowstorm. i was there when i was there today that all of a sudden the snow would start falling again and it's 1984. he's right. you chill, because as you know, there are only 24 pledged delegates available tonight. the big cries come next month in march. this is about delegates, but there's no question the clinton campaign have a very good ground operation. who said that brooklyn is up in manchester, brooklyn and i also think parts of queens is up there in manchester. >> have you ever seen chill and clinton in the same sentence? >> how do you explain then if they ought to have a chill, why are we getting these stories about bill and hillary clinton being very dissatisfied with the quality of their internal -- >> hold that, we've got to take a quick break but first let's go back to wolf. in about an hour, most of the polls will be closing in new hampshire. it's a big night for the state, a big night for the candidates. coming up, we'll be checking in
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with our reporters. they're at several of the candidates' primary night headquarters. we'll also have more exit polling results. we'll be right back. y your car insurance premium like clockwork. month after month. year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pay up again. why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it? if you have liberty mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all. sign up to immediately lower your deductible by $100. and keep lowering it $100 annually, until it's gone. then continue to earn that $100 every year. there's no limit to how much you can earn and this savings applies to every vehicle on your policy. call to learn more. switch to liberty mutual and you could save up to $509. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at
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once again, we want to welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. i'm wolf blitzer. you're in "the situation room." >> thanks for joining us. right now new hampshire voters are turning out in potentially record numbers. in just a couple hours we'll know for sure which democrat and which republican they want to see on the presidential ballot in november. >> and we're getting early hints already as these exit polling numbers begin to come in. the latest on that, the candidates' expectations and the final pitches, the mood of the polling places and much more as we check throughout the hour with our team of correspondents who are on the ground. the best team of political professionals, they are with us as well. a very, very full hour ahead starting with the republican front-runner, donald trump. let's go to jim acosta. he's joining us from trump headquarters in manchester. jim, how has mr. trump spent these final few hours as he waits for the primary results to


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