tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN February 14, 2016 7:00am-8:01am PST
this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you around the united states and around the world. we'll start with some of the serious threats facing the world. first off, terror. isis will probably try to strike the united states in 2016. that's what a top intelligence official says this week. does he have the strength and smarts to do so? i have my al and peter to assess the u.s. government's own threat assessment. then money. just what is going on with the world's markets? are we headed into another recession?
i will talk to martin wolf who has slightly different perspectives and a very special treat. the great harry. star of stage and screen activist and humanitarian on the whiteness of academy awards, the blackness of the president and the state of race relations in america today. and finally, rolling on the red carpet in egypt and comikol rol rolling and rolling, i'll explain. first, here's my take. it is the line that might have sunk a presidential campaign. it came during last saturday's debate from senator marco rubio. >> he knows exactly what he's doing. he's overtaking a systematic approach to make the country like the rest of the world. >> he repeated the phrasing almost robotically.
what about the substance of what he said? the charge that president obama is attempting to change america fundamentally is a staple of right wing talk shows. as they point out, rush limbaugh and others assert obama's policies are designed to transit form america. this rhetoric does raise an important question. what makes america exceptional? all american politicians including obama use that word. most reflect before it but few actually define it. today american exceptionalism is seen as economic. many conservatives say obama care, energy policy and the regulations have all violated a core difference between america and the rest of the world by expanding the roll of the stake in the economy. how limited is american
the conservative heritage foundation has a index of freedom that ranks companies from government. america comes in 11th behind canada, australia, ireland, switzerland and singapore. that doesn't seem exceptional. from the beginning america was exceptional. so it was obviously about something other than tax policy. what about freedom. certainly, liberty was central. but the french revolution was also fuelled by a similar idea and never implemented successfully. what they made america truly exceptional from the start. it was a country founded not on race, ethnicity or religion but on ideas and crucially those ideas were open to all. this openness to people, ideas, cultures and religions created a
new person, the american. in an important sense he writes we have never been a nation in any traditional meaning of the term. we americans do not have a nationality the way other peoples do. which is why we can absorb immigrants more easily than they can. other countries have small states and low taxes. there are republicans in the world today but no other country from its outset believed in the idea of openness and the mixture of people as central to its founding. america is a nation created on the basis of diversity of race, religion, national origin and there are efforts to change america. there are plans for religious and ethnic test to bar
immigrants and visitors and to track them in the u.s. there have been calls to deport people. even american citizens. there are proposals to monitor houses of worship. these ideas would fundamentally change america tearing at its founding dna. it would make it much more like the rest of the world becoming one more nation in which certain ethnic groups and religions are proven. others are insiders. a country where diversity is a threat rather than a strength. who is proposing these changes? last time i checked it was not barack obama. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. let's get started. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ a series of hearings on
capitol hill this week were frightening not for their partisanship but the substance about the threats the united states is confronted with today. the director of national intelligence told congress there's currently more terrorist safe havens in the world than any time in history. he called isis the number one terror threat. vincent stewart, the head of the defense agency went further saying in 2016 isis will probably attempt direct attacks on the united states and more attacks in europe. what should owe take from this and what is to be done? joining me is former secretary of homeland security and the chairman of security firm and also an adviser to jeb bush. here with me in new york is peter, the cnn national security analyst and the author of united states jihad which was my book
of the week. tell us what you made of those hearings. one of the things i worry about is intelligence agencies these days seem to view it as part of their job to make sure nobody can ever tell them they missed something. they have tended to make pretty gloomy pictures. nobody notices the bad stuff doesn't happen. god for bid there should be one attack and you didn't predict there was going to be an attack. is there some of that going on or is it worry? >> i think it's been a little bit of inclination on the part of intelligence agencies to be comprehensive and make sure they don't get accused of missing something. that being said, i think what james clapper said and general stewart said was what i pretty much kpexpected. the reality is if you look around the world, radical jihad has me that's sized. it's not just in south asia and middle east, we now see evidence
of europe as well. i think it was no surprise and the gloomy diagnosis is one of the facts. >> why has it happened? why are we seeing this ma. al qaeda was on its death bed and they were actually able to come in and strengthen this back. >> i think we've grown to the various forms of this science experiment. in libya and now we have a war isis has inserted itself. now we're five years out with no
end in site and like many others i was very optimistic because al qaeda didn't play a roll in this. they were absent. >> peter, you have written this terrific book. the question i think on everyone's mind is how does this happen? how does a seemingly normal couple in san bernardino get radicalized and become foot soldiers in the isis world? >> some of the people i profile were tremendously excited american citizens joining al qaeda or joining isis and seeing themselves as part of the experiment. we see that throughout history. they tend to attract idealistic people. >> mostly alienated young men. >> lots of people have disappointments and yale yalien.
there's no easy answer. there is a profile of these people. the san bernardino couple fits closely to the profile of most americ american jihadist. t in germany it was a group of terrorist and late 19th krint russia. it's not the first time we're seeing the same profile. if you look at jihadi john joining isis, these are not people terribly in -- >> it's not something somebody whose ill lit rate is going to adopt. >> absolutely. >> what to do about this home grown threat? you must have thought a lot about this when you were at homeland security? >> what's happened now is the
way of social media. we're beginning to see the companies platforms for social media shutting down some of the twitter feeds and similar types of communications that are used to recruit. we also need to have a strategy to inrisk the local communities in counter radicalization and that means religious leaders and family members and that means community groups who have to begin to push back against this narrative and also frankly to identify people in the early stages of becoming violent or radicalized so they can have an intervention before they go all the way. >> there are several republican candidates. not jeb bush who believe we should put certain regulations on them. what do you think of that whole set of strategies? >> a lot of this is based on the
foolish idea you can identify with muslim or the people who become radicalized come from an islamic background and you can see over the years often you have christians who become radicalized rather quickly and then become in this environment of jihad. i think we have to focus on behavior, not on ethnic or religious background. obviously, whenever we admit people in the united states we have to be careful in invetting them. there's processes in place now that give us more information about who comes in. to generalize growth based on religion is a huge mistake. i can tell you i remember swearing in as american saids in iraq members of our armed forces who are muslim who actually came from the area and they were willing to put their lives on the line to protect america and we shouldn't be alienating those people. >> pleasure to have you both on. next on gps, another threat.
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digestive core.r so choose ultimate flora by renewlife. it has 30 billion probiotic cultures. feel lighter and more energized. ultimate flora. more power to your gut. it was another very rough week for investors around the world from new york to london to hong kong. those are just markets. what do they have to do with the overall economy? well, potentially quiet a bit according to no less of an expert jana young. she told congress the swiftly --
stock markets would weigh on the outlook for the broader u.s. economy. what should we be looking for in those markets and the broader u.s. and global economy in the coming weeks? let me bring in martin wolf who joins us from london and here on set with me is rana, times assistant managing editor for economics and business and cnn's global economic analyst. you have been warning of what you believe is a coming global recession. explain to me why it's right. >> global downturns tend to happen once every eight years. we're sort of on track. what's worrying me now is the market jitters we've seen in the last few months imnating from china are in some ways the echos of the crisis. you had a big sub bubble in the u.s. and we stop spending here
in the u.s. and developing countries led by china took on the burden. they run up their own bubble and that's bursting and you got to same thing happening once again. china's downturn and capitol flight and i think the market jitters are going to continue for some time. you're saying the united states is not in recession and china is not in recession and those three collectively account for something like 75% of the global economy. are you still saying that? >> i expect the world economy to grow below its potential. if we mean by a recession an actual shrinkage of global
outside, i think that's very unlikely. we're not seeing that happen in the major economies. the world will be astonished and the companies not in real difficulty aren't going to give us negative growth for the whole world economy. it's not a happy picture and obviously, if you look at the markets you look at the geo political risks, of course, you could imagine negative shocks which would tip us into something horrible. i would be astonished if it's something bad as 2009. >> can you see the type of spill over than the last leverage bubble lasting had. >> i don't think this is a 2008 situation but we have the two major forces in the economy. the slow down in the markets which is being slowed down by the oil prices.
we see those two forces are creating this rocky environment. kind of an unexpected paradigm for investors which coupled with the political issues around falling oil prices and it makes the political situation rock here. that presents a tough view for the year ahead with investors. >> sweden cut interest rates into negative interest rates. >> they want to normalize so we don't have the cheap money. you argue, on the other hand, not only should central banks be going into negative territory, they might be taking and spraying money into the economy.
explain why you think that's important. >> i think business people are wrong. fundamentally wrong. i admire the understanding of their businesses but they simply don't understand the overall economic system. we are in a very strange place. we've been there for about 15 years in which we suffer from a really big and sustained global savings and really big deficiency in the investment. interest rates are naturally very low. the fed has just raised rates to the quarter point. she's right because the fed tightened too soon. the fundamental problem is the e equilibrium rate. that takes us into a much deeper and bigger discussion than the one we can now have. >> all right.
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now from a what in the world segment. this weekend his budget proposal, president obama asked to quadruple spending for u.s. and naval forces in europe over last year. why does the pentagon need so much more money to send american troops to peaceful trang quell europe? because officials in washington and many european capitols are worried about a threat they thought had gone away. russia. you might think this is farfetched but let's understand what the pentagon and europeans might be thinking. russia has invaded two countries in just the last eight years. georgia in 2008 and ukraine in
2014. both former soviet republics on its boarders. ukraine has a sizable population of ethnic russians whose dissatisfaction was used to justify the use of force. the baltic states share that characteristic but with one crucial difference. they are all members of nato. the alliance is bound to regard an attack on them as an attack on all. to see what would happen if russia invaded the three baltic stakes. russia forces crushed nato's defenses. they were able to reach the capitols in less than three days. nato's infantry couldn't retreat
for the most part. it was destroyed by the russian attacks. why the dramatic defeat for the most powerful military alliance on earth? iran says russia has far more manpow manpower than the region. in the 1980s there were 3,000 u.s. army soldiers in europe. today there's 30,000. seven of which are baltic battalions fully equipped to fight the russians. russia has vamped up their military maneuvers to a point unheard of since the cold war. what does nato need to do to face down this renewed russian threat? the obama administrations budget proposal would add one brigade to europe that rotates in from the united states bringing the total to three bring brigades.
as they point out, they made the nations in 2014. >> we'll be here. >> attacking the baltics would be risky for putin. one way to make it, it even more risky for russia is for the united states and nato to create a realistic list to fight the russian army. that afterall is how it works. next on gps my next guest says it's likely but he also tells us about the opportunities and industries of the future. yeah. yeah. then how'd i get this... [ voice of dennis ] ...allstate safe driving bonus check? what is that? [ normal voice ] so weird, right?
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wishes when he graduated from college in 1984 someone would have told him the internet and computers were going to change the world. he's now written a book for the graduates of today telling them from the next 20 years will bring. which industries will boom, which jobs will grow and which will be necessary to compete. alec ross is the author of the industries of the future. he's senior adviser for communication. pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for having me. this is the question everybody wants to know because young people want to figure out what industries they want to go into and people want to know what they should know about to retool and all of us are interested. so you know, bottom line, what is the biggest trend you notice when thinking about these industries? >> i think that the story of the last 20 years was the story of dijtization. the story of the next 20 years
is going to build on that. what we're going to see is artificial intelligence creating entire new trillion dollar in s industri industries. >> now 15 years past the geno, we're three or four years away from the hoped for life sciences. >> the other big thing you talked about was the robotics. one of the things people imagined would have progressed more than it has. people thought we would have robots that could clean up the kitchen and you got a few vacuum cleaner robots but what is making it change? what's the new step? >> the robots from the cartoons of the 1970s are going to be the reality of the 2020's.
there's two things driving this. first there are things that's difficult for robots like grasping. it might seem straight forward but it's actually very complex to model out mathematically. there's been huge steps in mathematics now taking what were once complex robotic tasks and are now making them possible. basically, allowing us to take robotic work from being merely routine and manual to cognitive and nonroutine. second big development is cloud robotics. c 3 po interrupted us now. if he walked in here and said oh my, excuse me and walked off the set, in the movie version of that, there would be a lot of hardware and software going through that body. in 2025, that will be a cloud connected device.
if he interrupted us here on the set, he would ping the cloud and the intelligence from the cloud would give him instructions. excuse yourself. excuse yourself in english and go find a seat. what this means is we don't have to build million dollar robots to get so fisted artificial intelligence that can be lean machines so long as they're connected to the cloud. >> many replace people. we have thompson on for the atlantic who pointed out the sipg l most common occupation of an american male is driving a car bustle truck. presumably, you say get use to it, there will be a lot more of this. >> this is going to continue to happen. here's the thing people aren't talking about which is going to be a really big deal. in the past, automation and robotics have replaced blue collar labor but the combination of artificial intelligence with
new automation technologies is going to displace what i would call lo level white colar work. think about my father. i love my father. for 40 something years he's worked as a real-estate lawyer. he's created big stacks of paper for people when they buy and sale a home. that kind of work which requires cognition and also has a lot of road work to it is going to be sub planted by a combination of robotics. >> so young people listening to this, parents listening to this will wonder what should we do to prepare for this new work. >> i have a 13-year-old son and 8-year-old daughter. i wrote this pook to light a path for them.
7 65% of jobs go into jobs that don't exist. this focuses on skills kids need in tomorrow's would recall. i point out two things. first, interdisciplinary learning. we've got to be able to take science, technology, engineering and mathematics and combine that with skills focussed on persuasion, teaching and other such things. second thing is language learning. foreign languages and computer languages. the world is growing more global. people who are prepared to work on a 196 country chess board are going to be those best positioned and computer coding because if you are a confident coder, you have a few decades of guaranteed employment in front of you. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> up next, the one, the only, the great harry on race, hollywood and america.
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harry is one of those guest that needs no introduction but i'll try to do him justice with a short one. in his 88 years of life he's made a mark on popular film, tv, music and theater. perhaps more importantly he has changed america and the world. he was a friend, confident and organizing partner of martin luther king jr. he brought hollywood to the march on washington in 1963. he has been a fierce advocate for justice, a timeless activist for civil rights and that is what the academy of motion picture arts and sciences awarded him an honorary oscar
for a few years ago. in his acceptance speech he said he ophoped hollywood would be a game changer. thank you for being here. >> it's nice to be with you. >> you talk about the degree to which race permeates so much of culture that we sometimes don't notice it. you give us an example. the first movie you saw which was in 1935, what was it? >> it's called tarzan and the apes. a lot of kids in my neighborhood in harlem where i was born couldn't wait to go see this. first of all, the whole experience of picture, the technology was fairly new and as the picture played i found the
way the africans were portrayed. here there was this large group of people who were in an environment indigenous and stumbling idiots that couldn't find their way through the forest and everything they attempted to do could only be guided by the beings of tarzan. the great white hope. >> i did not want to be identified with africa. i didn't want to be an african. the way they were depicted was demeaning and they represented such stupidity and absence of intelligence. i decided the last thing i ever wanted to be was an african and to be referred to as a descendant of africa. thank god for my mother who
showed me a better light. >> it would seem like a lot has changed when you look at movies like 12 years of slave or selma or so many of the other ones that we've come a long way. have we? >> i think there's no question that we have come a long way. you're just at the beginning. there's much to unravel. most recently a number of films have come out that are kind of interfaced with this whole issue of oscars and black presidents
in american culture. >> so what do you think of that? i've had friends in the entertainment industry that says look, hollywood is full of liberals. they have no problem nominating black people. this is a couple of bad, two bad years that this is not an indicative of anything deeper. >> i don't think it's just two bad years. i think if you look at the spectrum of race relations in this country there are a lot of fronts with a reversal. if you take a look at the way the right wing move in the country has voting districts and look at employment records and a lot of practices. people are once again at the new wave of racist definitions and practices. >> you think things have gotten worse recently are kind of a
backlash. >> i think from what we achieved in the civil rights movement to what we're practicing as a nation, there's a reversal. >> do you think that's because there's a black man in the white house. >> i think the black man in the white house has awakened an awful lot of dichotomies. a world saw us as a powerful force. the election of obama sent another signal. it also awakens a right wing energy in this country because nobody expected whatever you elected a black man to be president and when that reality was established it shocked a lot of racist forces in this
country. it's very much based upon the fact there's a force in this country no black man should ever be held for the country. >> there are people who wonder why you have been so politically and socially active. you're a great artist and great singer. did you worry you were turning off some part of your audience and doing things that might not help you purely as a great singer. >> i'm not an artist who became an activist. i was always an activist who happened to become an artist. people say why did you become an activist? because i was a victim of poverty. i saw the environment that my mother as an immigrant woman came into america. i have always felt that america, when people say why do you love america, it's not because abe
lincoln and george washington. it's not because of what the founding fathers said although that's a big part of it. the more important component was not what the black man said. i read what frederick douglas had to say and hair i don't think tubman and great warriors who felt america was worthy of a change and changing because it could become a utopia for all people. >> final question, are you optimistic? >> yes. i have no choice. if i were not optimistic with a sense of hope i would have to look at all these people who sack ri fies a great duty. a huge influence in my life was
elenor roosevelt. i don't think any one person black or white touched me as deeply as she did. i don't think we could become distracted by all that has been thrown at us. we have a task to make this country hole and live up to its promise and what it says it hopes to be and dr. king once said we are the only hope that america will realize the better part of itself. i'm on that mission. >> fascinating perspective. thank you so much. >> thank you for inviting me. >> next on gps, i'll tell you about one leader's red carpet and plus a new ministry of happiness when we come back. diabetes, steady is exciting.
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state of tolerance and happiness this week? stay tuned and we'll tell you the direct answer. this book's book of the week is eric weiner's. he takes you to ancient athens, vienna and of course, silicon valley today providing genuine incites along the way. now for the last look. you've heard of red carpets but welcome to the red runway. taste 2.5 mile long red carpet. note this is not an image from hollywood. it's from a developing country. one still plagued by poverty and disease. the carpet was laid out in egypt to pave the way for its president.
it gets worse. the red runway was placed to a housing complex for the poor to give talk about measures among other things. they told the government the carpet was used in order to give a good impression to the world. we can say that backfired. that military has been strengthening its already central road in egypt's economy as foreign policy pointed out. that roll is one of the crucial reasons why reforms to open up egypt's economy never quiet took place and never succeed. the egyptian economy continues to be in a slump. it's not a red carpet but a magic carpet. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is b. the united arabs announce the ministers of state for tolerance and happy via tweets by the country's pm. these two positions come as part
of what they call the largest structural change in the history of our federal government which includes the event actual outsourcing of government sources to the private sector. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. >> hey, good morning. happy valentines day. it's time for reliable sources. our weekly look at the time the story behind the story of how news and pop culture get made. this morning the voice of the leading conservative on the supreme court silenced. he passed away at age 79. we all learned the news yesterday afternoon and now the flags at supreme court are half mass. cbs rewrote the questions for the g.o.p. debate last night and we're going to analyze the debate