Skip to main content

tv   Washington Journal Jeffrey Jones  CSPAN  April 10, 2021 2:19am-2:29am EDT

2:19 am
2:20 am
publications ascame out and sevr publications as well. that first live reading, morecar publications as well. that first live reading, more w. that first live reading, more re americans identifying that they are democrats by a margin that hasn't been seen in a decade. that is according to a poll released by gallup on wednesday. joining us via zoom to talk about the result of the report is jeffrey jones, good morning. guest: thanks for having me. host: what prompted you to ask this question? guest: this is something gallup has been tracking for a long time. party identification is a major predictor of how people vote and how they think about issues. gallup has been measuring party
2:21 am
id since 1944. starting in 1991, we began to ask independents where they lean. in u.s. politics it is basically a choice of two options. and you push independents to lean you get a better sense of how elections might turn out. host: let's talk about that topline making headlines with more people saying they are democrats this year. talk about how that came about. guest: 49% of americans lean democratic. 19% are independents who lean democratic. that is compared to 40% republicans and 15% leaning. we have a nine point gap now,
2:22 am
the largest we have measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. host: historically how has this gap shifted over the years? guest: this is pretty consistent throughout the trump administration, democrats have a slight lead. it has been between 4-6 points over the last four or five years. when he gets to double digits are close to double digits, that is pretty rare. we saw double digit democratic advantages from 2006-2000 nine. that is when george w. bush was president. his approval ratings were very low. also the beginning of the obama administration and he was very popular at that point. we also saw similar gaps -- certainly we reference the fourth quarter of 2012. also late 1992, early 1993 after
2:23 am
clinton was elected. host: if we are seeing more people say they are identifying as a democrat this year, the numbers tell us one thing, what are the driving forces behind that? guest: it is probably less of a shift to the democratic party and more of a shift away from the republican party. if you compare the first quarter of 2021 with the last quarter of 2020, republican identification and leaning has dropped three points where democratic identification and leaning has stayed the same. fewer americans identifying as republicans, 25 percent identify outright as republicans. not the lowest we have measured. the low was 22% or that was around the time the government shutdown over obamacare. host: would you say that drop amongst republicans and going towards democrats is the result of the trump administration over
2:24 am
all over the time they had an office? guest: i think it is more recent than that. definitely the postelection period after the approval rating went down he left office with 34% approval rating, the lowest of his presidency. the riots played into that. in addition to his approval rating going down and republican identification leaning going down. the image of the republican party is 37%. that is pretty low. one of the lowest we have measured for them. host: the write up in usa today says a couple of figures to consider, the covid-19 relief package in march. the push for mass vaccinations, all contributing to that, could you expand on that? guest: the rescue package is pretty popular. the approval package in the high
2:25 am
60's. coronavirus is a major factor. we have seen it come down a lot over the past few months. we have done getting credit for that. what we reference before at some of these high points. things are going well for a party or poorly for a different party, we tend to see things shift away from the party not doing well. host: you talk about those independents that is more about identifying. your impact on all this. guest: 44% of americans identify as independent. we have definitely seen an increase in independents in the
2:26 am
last decade. the 44% we measured is not the highest, 46% is the highest. we have been consistently over 40% independents for the past decade. definitely more americans moving away from the parties. we see that in how people evaluate the party. especially the early 90's and part of the 2000's. now it is rare that americans have the opinion of either party. even at this point, their favorable opinion is that 48%. not even the majority favorable right now. host: what is the potential that trend moves upward as we go forward? guest: it is probably going to be tied to the extent biden gets
2:27 am
credit or blame for that. a lot of it is driven by the popularity of the presidency. look ahead to the midterm election. it is a long time to go and things have certainly shifted in a much shorter time period until the next election. kind of how we are now. a lot could happen. that will end up determining how the elections go. host: jeff jones is a senior editor with gallup. you could see the work he and his colleagues, particularly this survey they put out with how people are identifying
2:28 am

1 View

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on