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tv   Washington Journal Larry Sabato  CSPAN  October 31, 2021 3:05pm-3:25pm EDT

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pleasure. >> >> we are waiting for president biden to begin closing remarks at the g20 summit. he has been meeting with world leaders to discuss climate change and covid-19 vaccination efforts. after the summit in rome biden and other leaders will be heading to glasgow for a united nations climate conference. president biden is expected to begin his remarks shortly. here is another washington journal segment while we wait. >> joining us from the university of virginia is center of politics director larry sabato. welcome to washington journal. guest: it is nice to be with you on halloween. host: we talk about the upcoming virginia governor's election tuesday.
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elections are happening nationwide but there is a lot of focus on the virginia race. the associated press is finding it as a post-trump test for democrats in virginia. how do you see the race on this halloween morning larry sabato question arc guest: it is close and competitive. both sides have different interpretation of what numbers we have from early voting. each side thinks they are winning. that is usually the case with campaigns. host: a front-page headline on the washington post this morning. dead heat on contest for governor. what about this race strikes you as different from any other race you have seen in virginia politics? any other governor's race in virginia politics? guest: well, it is only the second time that the former governor has run for another term. as you know, virginia is the last state in the union that limits the governor to one can get of term of four years.
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if they want to serve a second term, they have to stay out for four years and run again. only one of governor has done that back in 1973. he won extremely narrowly. partly because people wanted to move forward. they often do not look to the past. they like to move into the future. so, it is not easy getting reelected running for a nonconsecutive terms. incumbents often have it easier. maybe the new jersey governor is in this category. he is on the ballot too tuesday has been leading pretty handily throughout much of the campaign. he is running for reelection as the incumbent governor. terry mcauliffe does not have that advantage. host: what does each candidate have to do to win in virginia? where are the strengths that have to turn out both on election day and ahead of election day in early voting?
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guest: well, i will give you a general comment and then we can get to the specifics. we want to get questions. but, generally speaking, there are sibling more immigrants in the new virginia than republicans. a lot more. that was not true even 10 or 15 years ago. the state has been changing significantly in demographic terms and in regional terms. the most democratic region of the state's northern virginia. northern virginia, depending on how you define the region, is about one third of the entire statewide vote now. so they turn out. back in the old days, and i have seen virginia since the early 50's, virginia was democratic. but, very conservative if democratic. -- very conservative democratic. southern democratic. it switched to republican in the 1970's getting with governor
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lyndon holden who was elected in 1979, the first republican governor of the 20th century. if democrats get their vote out, they will win because there are more democrats than republicans. the problem democrats are having or giving the -- is getting the vote out. republicans are much more enthusiastic because they think they have a candidate who can win. they have not been in office for 10 years. host: our guest is larry sabato. we have a line for virginia residents, 20274 880003. republicans, 20274 eight 8001. independents and others, 202748 out of -- 202 748 8002. i wanted to ask you about a poll on issues important to virginia residents. one issue that has jumped in the past month is education.
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15% of the people responded in september. that jumped almost 10 points to 24% in october. what does that reflect? guest: it reflects that republicans have been following their nominee closely and his tv ads are overwhelmingly about parents role in education. they are following the candidate that is overwhelmingly a republican group. the democrats have said education is important and they are voting for terry mcauliffe. people misinterpret polling, especially about issues. it often depends on what is in the headline and what specific candidate is pushing for a particular issue. to me, that is all it means. people over interpret it and read too much into it. host: and you think that appeals more to a subset of people rather than the vote during -- the voting population at large?
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guest: absolutely. guess that's host: on the issue of education -- host: on the issue of education, the latest virginia ad for glenn young and. we will follow that with the response from them mcauliffe campaign. >> as a parent it is tough to catch everything. when my son showed me his reading assignment my heart sunk. it was explicit material. i met with lawmakers. they cannot believe what i was showing them. their faces turned bright red. they passed bills requiring schools to notify the parents when explicit content was assigned. it was bipartisan. it gave parents a say. the option to choose an alternative for my children. i was so grateful. then, governor terry mcauliffe
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vetoed it twice. he does not think parents should have a say. he has said that. he shut us out. glenn young kim listens -- young kin listens. parents matter. host: that is the glenn youngkin at. let's look at them a call about. >> when i heard about glenn youngkin wanting to ban books by prominent black authors it scared me. we know what this is about. it is the same politics we saw from donald trump meant to divide us. it has no place in our schools and no place in virginia. let's choose a better way.
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host: larry sabato, whatever the population thinks of that issue, have the top into a lot of -- an issue that has made a lot of headlines nationwide? guest: you actually showed one of the least effective glenn youngkin ads. it probably backfired because more information came out about the woman who was in the ad. and her son, who works for a republican committee and was in the trump white house briefly. it just did not work. that is why it disappeared almost immediately. on the more general issue, because of a gaffe mcauliffe made in the second debate saying that parents should not be telling schools what to teach, the mother ads -- some other ads the glenn youngkin campaign hat was more effective at it the republican base. people who are really concerned about what schools are teaching and whether there is a book with a pornographic passage in it are
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overwhelmingly republican. it is a matter of getting your face out. this is an off/off your election. it is a battle of turnout. turnout will not be nearly as high as in a presidential year. host: how is terry mcauliffe's first term as governor generally thought of? guest: well i am asked that question i refer to the polls taken as he exited. he had majority support. he was generally viewed as a good governor. he was not at the top in the governors i have watched and known and studied since the 60's, but, he was far from the bottom. he was in majority territory. given the time he served in 2014 to 2018 i think he got a pretty good score. because, conditions were not perfect.
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host: how do you think glenn youngkin has handled the issue of donald trump's support for him in this race? guest: delicately. there was a strange character on tv, tiny tim, whose famous song was tiptoe through the tulips. i'm glad you remember. basically, glenn youngkin has had to tiptoe through the tulips. on one hand, he needs all trump voters to vote for him. i think by and large he is getting that because they don't want to lose anymore. virginias election, republicans have lost every year. for 10 years. so, they got a candidate. they have a candidate who looks good. they have a candidate who has campaigned mainly on generalities, but, some specifics that have appealed to
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the republican base. they do not want to poet. so, -- to blow it. so, he needs voters beyond the truck base, though. he needs voters in virginia who do not like donald trump. donald trump lost in virginia in 2016 and 2020. how do you get those additional voters? put you -- distance between yourself and trump but not so much distance that donald trump will start issuing press releases saying nasty things about you, which he has done in other states. so far, he has pulled it off though there -- though there is a trump tele rally monday and he is expected to talk about glenn youngkin. i am sure he will endorse him for the fourth or sixth time. glenn youngkin does not need that. we will have to see what trump says tomorrow.
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if he does not make headlines, it will probably have little effect. host: play this out for 2022 in terms of a glenn youngkin win or a glenn youngkin loss tuesday and the future role of donald trump in congressional elections in 2022. guest: if glenn youngkin wins i think democratic fundraising will take, certainly for congressional candidates, because they will be uniquely responsible, along with president bush, for terry mcauliffe's defeat if it happens. the fact that they could not get their act together, they cannot pass those two big bills as they ran on in 2020, president riordan's -- president biden's ratings have been falling to 42%. he is not far from that in virginia, a little higher, but not much. these things are unchangeable
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for a candidate for governor. terry mcauliffe can do nothing without that. he tries to get the democrats to pass something, but they failed. they are talking about passing it tuesday. we have heard that before. but if they do, it will be too late to help terry mcauliffe. i think democrats will freeze up and freak out. it suggests, even though the midterms are one year away, next november, november of 2022, it will suggest that democrats are going to do very poorly. we will see whether that is premature, but, that is what people will think. now, if glenn youngkin loses my guess is he will only lose by a point or two. that will also be interpreted as a good showing for the republicans. this is a state biden carried by 10 points. it has a republican suddenly
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within one or two points of winning. that ought to cause democrats to freak out. my guess is psychiatrist's office will be filled after tuesday was democratic activists. host: it is election day tuesday in virginia. virginians, your line is: let's go to john in vero beach, florida. good morning. caller: good morning c-span. i have been watching you for a long time now. i trust your opinion. if the virginia legislature flips, what will happen to cannabis? will virginia be told you are not having an -- it in five years, you are not having it ever.
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is that a factor? guest: good question. a lot of passed by the democrat let -- legislature, they have been in office only a couple years in both houses. they may well be repealed by a a new -- repealed by a new republican legislature. the state senate is not up this year. they are not on the ballot until 2023. you will still have one of the two houses and you have to have both houses in order to pass something. i don't think the cannabis rules, at least the cannabis law will be change significantly in the next two years. the change might happen after 2023. a republican governor, a republican house, then, republicans take over the state senate. that is my short answer. i could go to a longer answer. some of the rules may be set
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administratively. a different governor from a different party may well construe the situation about cannabis differently. host: you originally said the republican party in virginia is doing a better job of turning out there voters. why is that? guest: because the republicans are brilliant used. the energy is high because they actually have a candidate who might win. they have had a series of losers. since 2008 all the republican nominee for president have lost year. if you have lost for that long and your team has a chance to win, you will be raising the roof. you will be screaming and yelling and stamping your feet. that is pretty much what is happening for republicans.
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now, democrats say, and i have no way of verifying this, they say, they have done very well in early voting, especially, in or there in virginia. if that is true, it is possible that mcauliffe can pull it out by building up a big margin in northern virginia in the early vote. we will see. one big change people should know about is this year the early vote, that is male in voting and early in person voting, -- mail-in voting and early in person voting will be released first rather than last. it has been released last for a number of years. people think there is something fishy there because they are watching the board and then one candidate is winning and then all of a sudden a giant number of votes come in and then the opposite number of -- then the opposite candidate is winning. that is because of the early vote. by releasing it first people ought to have more confidence in the vote. they should've had confidence in the vote regardless, but this will help them.
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host: there were reports earlier this week that there will be more poll watchers in virginia than in past years. guest: yes. again, a lot of that is supplied by the republican party. i have no problem with poll watchers as long as they do not interfere. whether they are democrats or republicans, that is not their job. their job is not to discourage people from voting or scowl at them. their job is to be there to watch and make sure things are done properly. so, the more the merrier as long as the local vote officials can handle it. host: let's go to abington, virginia. tim, good morning. caller: good morning. first time caller. host: great. caller: i am amazed at how people do not remember last year . the democrats were the only ones who gave us any help.
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i am going to remember that this year. i hope all virginians do too. host: lee in new york on the republican line. caller: i guess some of my questions have been answered by a previous caller. basically, if mcauliffe and glenn youngkin arnett and that can -- arnett and that -- are net how can we be sure of election integrity? yes: i am glad she asked that question. my main focus is national elections but i have lived in virginia for decades. >> i apologize for keeping you waiting. -- president biden: i apologize for keeping you waiting. we were playing with elevators. long story.

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