tv Check-in Deutsche Welle February 26, 2021 1:30am-2:01am CET
clique for power and profit plummeted an entire continent into chaos and violence. this is the journey back into the history of slavery. our documentary series slavery routes starts march 10th on w. . the united states and iran have been on channel means for decades now and once again tensions are running high and the question is can the incoming bite the ministration and the devalued did leadership in terror on renegotiate the nuclear agreement that donald trump walks away from in 2018 and under what price certainly a lot hinges on what the 2 sides choose to do next so here on to the point we ask your brand in america is a new nuclear deal possible. for
thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point where my guests are psoriasis nelson a u.s. iranian journalist based here in berlin who says any new iran nuclear deal that the biden administration to go shiites will require concessions to tehran that will hurt the president. also with us is carnelian sided by our from the german council on foreign relations his opinion the europeans need to seize the moment to reinvigorate diplomacy 1st on the euclid file then on regional security and a very warm welcome to the new gallup editor in chief holds leave middle east quarterly senate who argues that the middle east needs a new framework for security and cooperation without this there will be no stability. thanks. all 3 of those statements are good sense of the show and i'd
like to go straight to soraya with the inevitable question how tense is the relationship between iran and the u.s. right now well it's pretty bad i mean it's been many years since it's been this bad although i would argue it's a little better than it was on january 19th but for the new president came in because it's very clear that president joe biden would like to see that change he really wants to go back to some sort of conversation with iran. and done it's only a gala let's just get technical for a moment because last week the head of the international atomic energy agency was interim just a week ago that was a very important visit just explain why. well it's important because iran has threatened let's say the iranian column and has also asked for iran to suspend the control of the international atomic agency and this is of course a violation not only of the iran nuclear deal but also of other nonproliferation
agreements that iran has subscribed to and so these negotiations were an important signal they were also an important signal because. there is some sort of international arrangement of international mechanisms still alive. and of course the rainiest know that your business they know that the americans are nervous they know that everyone in the region is nervous and they themselves have the problem that the iranian government doesn't want to give in to the pressure of certain hardline factions in the parliament that dominate the parliament and so they somehow want to show that they're still in control they're still in charge and they're still willing to negotiate so clearly somebody is talking about the prospects of a renewed nuclear deal is it going to happen and who needs it most. well the world needs it it's been a remarkable achievement to have this kind of an agreement that can 2015 to set standards for nuclear verification for what
a country can do. under international conventions and so it would be bad if it was simply left to fade out as it were after the departure of the united states and then the subsequent non compliance with the iranians but the window that has been opened by this recent visit to iran the window of opportunity is short we are speaking about 34 months max where we need to have some kind of an accord to reinstate the old agreement and then go on to some follow on negotiations so this is really an issue of urgency and when cornelius talks about the old deal what he's talking about is the j c p r u. joint comprehensive plan of action that was signed as we've seen back in 2015 back then barack obama was the u.s. president and he called the deal a victory for diplomacy. after years of tense negotiations the u.s. the u.k.
france russia china and germany signed the nuclear agreement with iran in 2015 in vienna in the treaty iran's promise to refrain from any activity that could serve the production of nuclear weapons and agree to have that checked in return economic sanctions against the country would be lifted and then in 2018 relations broke down barack obama successor donald trump withdrew the u.s. from the agreement harsh sanctions against the islamic republic followed the results in iran no longer feels bound to the deal and is ramping up uranium enrichment significantly now the international inspectors monitoring of the nuclear facilities is set to be limited iran says it won't return to its obligations under the agreement until the sanctions are lifted. the deal could be revived by the new u.s. administration under joe biden but it wants to renegotiate the deal something iran opposes how could such
a new agreement come about. the big question isn't it suppose you could also one german. have the headline is this the end of the road for the nuclear deal. no i don't ship it i think it is the deal was reasonable the deal can be implemented it has proven successful so i don't see any reason why one would be able to return to the steel. the question is just like is is everyone willing to do so and the other question is. don't we create some like false expectations when we think that we could probably include other issues of regional security but this is this is the problem. well he has been a bit willfully ambiguous about it. hasn't said that he wants to include for example uranium missile program into this deal and i think he knows very well why
he didn't do so his team of advisors are seasoned diplomats people with experience in new associations and people with experience in iran negotiations not recent is back to a certain extent yes of course and they're being criticized by the republican camp but in general i think they know very well what the iranians are up to and they know that the iranians would not that this is the kind of red line to include any of the regional security issues into the nuclear deal and to be honest they will be vindicated because even the europeans america's closest allies always said this deal is about limiting or dissent the iranian nuclear weapons program and it's not there to sort out or to to to create regional security arrangements that should be done in a i think in a different round of negotiations and a different format in which the u.s. should definitely not take the lead. the the diplomats talk about the choreography
of all is how we get from a to b. to c. wherever it is we're going to be going wherever it is we want to be tell us a little bit more about the process well that's that's something which which cannot simply be done by the united states and iran alone because both countries have domestic politics on this going on and there is pressure in the united states from the republican camp but also from hardliners within the demo line on both sides militancy and that is not what is this thing an interesting observation and the same is true for iran i mean one tends to take iran as a unitary country you know the mullahs on top of ruling everything but behind this scene of the for sale there is real power play going on between various camps also inside iran and this as donna gallop was saying the parliament has put out a demand that the investors be kicked out and the government has to somehow comply with it and there was this arrangement being done with the international atomic energy agency but what has to happen now is that
a mediator like the european union would have to lay out over the next say 23 months what does each side need to do in order to go back into compliance so that at a point in the future before probably june both sides can claim at this particular moment in time we have both come into into compliance because they have drawn their red lines on this that sounds like synchronicity that will be 7th heaven for the diplomats but it's that's not quite the way things are at the moment i mean it's all a big discussion about who's going to make the 1st step who's going to make the 1st concession well i think in terms of who has the ability to do that i do think that rests with the americans in the end it was the americans that pulled out 1st and sort of started this cascade and secondly iran or the iranian government currently is battling to stay in power that would be the more moderate well whatever that means nowadays faction that's in charge there and they have elections coming up in june and there's a lot of pressure behind sports what's. what happened in the elections that's going
to have an impact on the story we're trying to sort of tell or understand well there are a lot of conservative leaders who are sort of populist if you will where they have there is some appeal to them even though they are not exactly what perhaps the younger generation is looking for in terms of having more freedoms that sort of thing but they are sort of speaking to people's struggles very real struggles in iran right now i mean these sanctions and the sanctions before them the sanctions before those have really decimated the iranian economy i mean there are a lot of very educated young people who can't get jobs you know and they're unable to leave although now obviously the pressure has been lifted a little bit on people getting visas to get out of iran but it's a real struggle and i don't rule honey it's been a disappointment you know he has a lot of problems that that incumbent candidate and iran does because there are some very real problems there as mentioned so i do think that in the case of joe biden if he were able to somehow finagle something that brings both parties to the
table simultaneously that that might help jumpstart it but i agree just as both say i agree though that we can't be a multitude of topics that really needs to focus on getting the deal going to get our back on 1st and then we can worry about all the other stuff and different if you allow me to jump in here because why is that significant of a presidential election you know you have the narrative on the one hand that the supreme leader of iran is not a fool lection he's going to stay so he's the one who takes the final decision on the on everything and of course in the united states i often hear the argument why it doesn't matter who is the president because the supreme leader eventually he's the establishment of the islamic republic piece of the regime and therefore he's the one who's going to take the decision that's not very much like in my view not the case because the one who has to roll out the. politics of the policy is the president of course the problem supreme leader has a final decision and the national security count. does but the president has to be
has to establish a cabinet assemble a team to continue negotiations and to design the foreign policy so the role of the president is extremely important i don't share the view that it's all a game of hardliners and conservatives in iran for example well honey has been branded the rationalist camp. but he's the one he's the one who cares about national security he might be a rationalist a reformist person in certain aspects but after all he is the guy for national security he has a background in intelligence and national security defense and that's his logic with that what's what he cares about and i think there is to a certain extent a consensus in iran. regarding certain issues of national and regional security which is not regardless of if you are conservative or if you are hardline or reformist and therefore rouhani was was elected and though he might have been a disappointment in terms of economic reform and liberal reform i think he
delivered on the national security issue. i think that's one more reason to be you know forceful and pressing for diplomacy now because with this election there was certainly be also a change of policy inside iran obviously history doesn't repeat itself and if so it does from tragedy to farce but if you look at the iranian negotiations and compare it to what happened between 20032005 the europeans had started these negotiations the nuclear negotiations rouhani was the counterpart and then the new president was elected. many of us will remember as a firebrand and as a difficult negotiation partner so what might happen just now again is that we are still in this face where dialogue is possible where the iranian government has said that they want the nuclear deal to have to be reactivated but if we wait until after the election with a new president and the irony is that president ahmadinejad former president may
run again he's muslim he's he's he's making noise and then you have trump on the other side basically there were more like i'm tale for the next presidential elections and then we're really down the drain that's ok one word that i haven't heard i think that i haven't heard from any of you so far in the discussion that surprises me is trust. the writers the triassic bit drastic absence of trust between the 2 sides how do you overcome that. well again i think the ball is in the american court to try and make an overture that suggests that not only will they come back to the table in a way that is respectful of iran not just telling it what to do when you know carrying out hawkish policies but also that show some sort of lasting effect because there is a great fear what happens after 4 years 2024 is around the corner and it's not just the nuclear deal that you know we're new provisions have to be drawn but it's also you know potentially another republican president and not just any republican
president could be donald trump i compare with that if. anything's possible i guess but you know there's also been. a lot of trust on the side in the iranians i would like to say i mean the europeans who step out of this this deal in 2015 they really thought that once the deal is in place one can tackle these other issues regional security issues but iran had none of this they were in spending in the region. obliging by the nuclear deal but doing anything else that was in their own interest regional allies and so the europeans are disappointed with the iranians vice versa the iranians would have hoped that the europeans had much more of a backbone when it came to us sanctions so we didn't mention trust because it's not there i would simply say and that's why the it's also important to to sell that the deal as much as it's there to build from that basis again ironically i disagree here i don't think it's a lack of trust i think the trust is being overestimated in this whole game and for
the for the following reason if you look at the iranian diplomatic and governmental establishment for most of course foreign minister. you see the way that he commands diplomacy a mix of being sometimes a bit bullish sometimes being rather like playing the suggesting card so they come out and like all colors of diplomacy that they can have very old fashioned style. but they always think that the west nor was our true intentions which is why would we use a nuclear weapon against on nevus we're just doing this to defend ourselves because we are being attacked they know that much of what we say is to create bargain chips and rhetoric and they underestimate the true fear and the way the misreading of the supposedly true intentions of iran on the western side the iranians very well and this is quite interesting because because many of the iranian leaders have studied in the west they know western society very well but they and underestimate to what
extend the regional neighbors the israelis even some europeans and americans are truly afraid of the iranian intentions and that its role is not going to let anybody underestimate the level of fear that is felt in israel. and you may not know who's mantra of course we have we have we have people in the israeli security establishment who know very well what will boil asking for a swift return for the nuclear deal and they were they've been advocates of the deal before. the climate between washington and jerusalem or tel aviv is at the moment not the best because the u.s. government very well remembers like the very disloyal demeanor often human death and now in the last years or the last days of the obama abide not ministrations so they're not on very good terms at the moment but at the same time they have they're pragmatic and reasonable and they know that israel on the one hand could benefit from a nuclear deal but of course it wouldn't solve any of the regional issues that israel
is involved in and exposed to there well iran certainly seems to be facing new uncertainty but one thing is for sure the sanctions and the covert crisis also give the having a devastating impact on the people of iraq. ever since the u.s. placed sanctions on iran its economy has shrunk at least 5 percent every year production the country's most important source of revenue has almost completely stalled as has its banking sector many european companies have also been pulling back for fear of reprisals from the us the result prices have been skyrocketing and iran's inflation rate is currently around 30 percent those suffering most are the iranian people many hope a resumption of negotiations with the west will hope bring improvements. that have people have been living under severe economic pressure and if they want to cut off cooperation that pressure will of course intensify the problems have become so huge
that people can't even live a normal life. but the government 1st wants to get rid of the sanctions. the problem is us is addicted to sanctions u.s. is addicted to pressure the u.s. is addicted to booty. are sanctions the best bargaining chip. the u.s. is addicted to bullying. it's hard to argue with that. that's certainly how it comes across and it has for for years very loudly to the point where there been actions taken you know the assassination of a saloon money and you know these these sorts of things do not play well in iran and i think again it plays into the hands of the more hardline factions which are. studies very experiences very extreme language but it's a language that is used to speak to the people on the ground. whose lives now a normal life is no longer possible that's what we heard in that report is not your
view of the situation is that how dire it has become well certainly i still have some relatives who live there and it's definitely is very difficult made more difficult by the fact that people weren't able to travel for those who could travel you know for a long time so and with coded and everything it's but the iranians have also i think this is something that's been going on for them in terms of not being able to to function normally you know having to deal with sanctions not having things available to them that's been going on for more than a generation at this point because sanctions are nothing new and it's again i feel that it is something that has made the regime last as long as it did it's never really had to answer for the problems that exist the very real problems that exist for you or any ron for people whether it's unemployment you know inflation just growing poverty growing education at the same time which is always very interesting that it's one of the most educated populations that you'll find certainly the middle east or you know anywhere but but it's something that needs to be addressed
and it would do the u.s. . administration well i think to try and present a little bit of a different image but it's a problem for joe biden at home because that is how the majority of americans and including in the democratic party think they should be dealing with going to what can you tell us about the lives of ordinary people caught in the middle of this this conflict well it's been as dire as as the clip has just shown and it is also something where the iranian population for better or for worse has gotten used to the endemic is coming on top but it's nothing that they should be exposed to if only because they have for a long time at least iran was complying with the nuclear deal the pullout of the united states out of the nuclear deal the evil. imposition of sanctions was not justified by any policy moves if you like except for you know a change of heart on the side of the us government where the government obviously
but the problem with sanctions is that they tend to be overestimated in what they can achieve if you look at the evidence of decades of economic sanctions they rarely work they are used as a policy instrument to placate voters to use show strength to you know try to follow a narrative of you know putting someone down to their knees but when has this happened ironically the c.p.a. with this concerted push is maybe the one exception where people realized ok it can work if we combine it with diplomacy and that's what was missing over the past 4 years of the previous administration any serious attempt to engage iran or the activities of iran at the diplomatic level so i'd be cautious as to what the prospects of even more pressure could achieve on you you know you get to while sanctions are probably not directed against against iran but but but are tool to discipline everybody else. of course they have some sort of impact on iran but of
course they have a stronger impact on the region and they have a strong and i'd also on the relationship between america and europe i think you're right continuous sanctions are being overestimated but but lifting sanctions is also being overestimated in terms of an economic benefit the iranian regime has or the iranian government for that matter has been has been promising of course to the iranian population that the nuclear deal is going to bring foreign investment is going to bring bring a prosperous economic development that wasn't the case for a number of reasons not only because iran cannot be humane economy cannot just be healed by a by by foreign investment but also by the fact that the companies that could invest in iran could normalize the relationship with iran still scared to death because they think even if they don't violate any. any law they might be at a later stage sanctioned by or affected by secondary sanctions by the united states because they depend they the u.s.
control the financial sector next and so i think even if we return to a nuclear deal we shouldn't create false expectations in iran the reigning economy is not going to prosper because of that because if you are a middle sized entrepreneur in europe and you know that maybe in 4 years trump pompei o much more hardline than trump much more uncompromising in terms of iran might return to power you you think twice before you if you or you launch a major investment in iran and so therefore the iranian government should should not promise the iranian population that this is all about the economy they the the nuclear deal is a matter of international security but the kind of an economic prosperity doesn't depend on this all star with you persian iranian roots can you put you could you at the end of the show here we don't have much time can you give us a positive take on the future for iran and the radians in the in the medium term.
well i think of the dialogue as or the type of language that's been used on the iranian part of the american part will change i think it will be softer and i think that's going to present some hope i agree that the set lifting the sanctions is not going to be more a miracle cure but it's also something that's going to hold the regime feet to the fire they're going to have to answer for why aren't things getting better after they promised it and that's that's a tool that works for the united states as well so i think things are somewhat positive but i'm not optimistic that the deal will be struck. going to be. still there we just have 34 months to move to agree that we still want to be alive i'm fairly optimistic. here on to the point. i have to come back next time around and one by.
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i. play. play . this is deja news live from berlin the european union is placing its best song vaccine passports e.u. leaders have agreed on the need for coronavirus vaccination certificates german chancellor angela merkel says the documents could be ready in time for you citizens to take their summer holidays also coming up. sizes of armenians take to the streets after their prime minister accuses the military of attempting a coup some rallying in his defense but many others demanding the prime minister resign.