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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  February 23, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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then make the decision days later. move very slowly. deirdre: if it ever happens to me i hope you are around in the hospital. deirdre: thank you for joining us. "making money" starts right now. charles: the gop battle for nevada is on and we enter the fine hours of voting in today's caucus in the silver state. americans making their way to the polls, picking their nominee. the polling in nevada has been unpredictable. so what's at stake in we want to go to neil cavuto. a lot of narratives here. could this be the first election nomination process where we see donald trump playing more than 40% of the vote? neil: it's possible. you don't need that or much more to claim the nomination the way the delegates are proportioned
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out. the winner could take all. we saw that in south carolina. in south carolina donald trump won and he won in the remaining districts so he picked up a delegate for every district he won. he got all 50 delegates and he got a third of the vote in that state. play that out in other states with proportional voting and you can see how the math adds up in his favor. he was stressing, wouldn't it be beautiful to winnow high oh where he's leading in the polls against yawn kasich, the ohio governor. whether it's kasich in ohio, ted cruz in texas or marco rubio in florida. charles: that would be easier for hip if all of these guys day in the race. the critics of donald trump said thus far one way of looking at
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this, you can say it's foolish. a large percentage of gop voters have not voted for donald trump. the single one candidate on the opposite side, maybe it would be more of a battle and trump would be vulnerable. neil: i'm not going to try 0 hogwash you, you are one the best people at this network when it come to numbers. but we should remind people you can get the not nation with a third d the nomination with a third of the vote. it's how the delegate vote is proportioned. there are 30,000 republican voters in that state. but fewer than 35,000 voted. 70%. you can see how it doesn't take much to win it. without getting caught in the weeds, you could have donald trump with fractional votes. but as long as he's on top of that fractional vote picking up
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all 30 delegates. don't even get we started on the winner take all states where that is the rule. >> do that point you made. there are whispers coming from the rubio camp that he has strong support with the more man -- mormon population. they gave the start to mitt romney. neil: they saved the day for mitt romney. it was the mormon vote that did that. charles: some say it's a complicated process and trump didn't do so well with the caucus process in iowa. knee * eventually, neil. neil: . you have to start winning. if there is a guy ahead of you
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building up a bigger head of steam, the gap is widening. that is an interesting case. caucus state are dicey. this one is really dicey. it's on open for two hours. you have to have been registered to vote 10 days ago. people stagger into a poll site, say you have had too much to drink and you realize you were supposed to register 10 days ago. that wasn't the what it was in iowa. very little participation. and that ground game, you heard so much about, it's so crucial. >> i know it's possible in vagus as well. >> if they can entice me with the buffet, i'm there. but a lot of these people, they don't know. charles: i look forward to you joining me tonight.
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we are with you, it starts at 11:00 p.m. all the way through. we have special guests all night long. we have the former governor of arizona. jan brewer and sheriff joe arpaio. and chuck woolery. ted cruz, marco rubio, they are in a neck and neck fight for an upset. some of their supporters think they can win. despite this effort trump is on course to win the delegates he need for the convention. is he invincible? joining me, chris stirewalt, and mike shields. chris, you are the one who crunches the numbers on this kind of stuff. a week ago there was talk of a brokered convention.
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now to neil's point ... >> to this point donald trump acted a lot like the last republican nominee. i don't mean attitudinally, but in term of his numbers, that's what you want, you want stable numbers. you don't have to have a majority but you need that solid plurality behind you. tonight what will happen with donald trump. the polls don't know anything. as prior republican caucuses have shown, you can't poll it, it can't be done. it come down to voter intensity whose voters are feeling it tonight. charles: the goes up under some pressure. what is the deal? this is suppose to be the first caucus of the west. every state we are seeing record
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numbers. will this slow down the momentum? >> i saw a tweet from john ralston, a reporter in las vegas who said the turnout would be high tonight. i'm saying it's obviously a caucus. but for the caucus the turnout will be higher in 2012. bill clinton didn't win a state until the 6th contest in 1992. you have a frontrunner polling around 30% to 35%. it's less about the delegate math and more about the timing of the calendar and how quickly does the rest of the field sort itself out. the reason why in the caucus and thursday night's debate in houston are important. you can starting to see can the rest of the field winnow out. then i don't think anything is guaranteed for donald trump.
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maybe he can win but it isn't over by any step of the imagine -- any stretch of the imagination. >> he has won in an environment that has been laid out. he has a huge head of steam. it's not a given that once -- if kasich and carson -- who knows, maybe cruz or rubio will drop out and the other non-trump person will get delegates or the votes. >> that's true. i thought neil's analysis was spot on. it's about the numbers at this point. you are the number of candidates. you can't make up these if this happens and that happens. what you have now is five people running and as a result of that, the vote is being split pretty appropriately. no one is going to get out until at least after the super tuesday, then probably as you know kasich will hang on until michigan and ohio.
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and that leaves rubio and cruz. ted has the money and so does marco. the person who ultimately may have tough decisions is carson depends on how he does tonight and tuesday. >> a lot of folks saying to senator brown's point, it's pretty obvious he can't win the nomination. what is he aging for and if he is on the establishment side dose realize whoever could be the ultimate establishment candidate, he's hurting that person. >> you are wondering where he is. i heard in every interviews someone points blank ask him, are you running for vice president? he said absolutely not. i wonder from ted cruz and marco rubio when they are going to stop going at each other. it's starting to look immature and childish and when they will have a closet meeting themselves like ben carson and ted cruz did.
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but i would agree, nothing is final yet. the interesting thing about nevada, it's not representative. it was just moved up after 2012 was the first year the was moved you have into this spot. we've have got to wait until super tuesday to figure out where people are. maybe if they see donald trump continuing this momentum a lot of people will rise up and say we need to support them and make sure someone can stands up against them. charles: way see, i wouldn't say the dismantlement of the gop, but some sort of evolution, a morphing process. this party will look different than it ever looked before. you have got to believe -- obviously it's donald trump driving this, before it many things that happened the last 5 or 6 years. >> it's donald trump taking advantage of a unique opportunities, which are the existing divisions within the party. ted cruz and marco rubio differ
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on certain points. but there is not a hill of beans worth of difference on policy points on their scoring and all of that stuff. the fact that that division is there is what trump is taking advantage of. the fact the party remains divide along old lines, that's what trump is a minority stake holder in this corporation. that what else's taking advantage of for a leveraged buyout. charles: a lot of folks saying this rnc is done. for bert or woirlts has become a target of scorn, and people see this as a revolution. and to crisp point about donald trump, how your party let down the people who voted you in year after year. >> i think the republican national committee is extremely well run. you have chairman who has been elected three times and put together a stellar debate
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process. the voters are making the choices. if you look at who are the final three. donald trump, ted cruz and marco rubio, two freshmen senators and someone who hasn't been involved in the process. the voters are saying they want someone new. on the democrat side you will have hillary clinton who has been in public life forever, or bernie sanders who has been in public office forever. charles: you have to senators elected through the grassroots tea party movement and a complete outsider which means the grand old party may be just old. donald trump with a win here. the big question is can he win in a general election. we'll come back and discuss it. when heartburn hits
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charles: donald trump maintains a lead and a lot of momentum in this gop nomination process following that big one in south carolina. but some say a win tonight might not be enough to secure victory. what about a general election, whether it's hillary or bernie? donald trump thinks he would win. >> i will beat her. one of the things i do that no other republic kang can can do. i'll be getting a lot of reagan democrats to cross over. you'll be getting independents. i'll win michigan. i will win new york. i think i have a chance of winning new york state. if i win that the election is over because there are so many delegates. i do things nobody else is going to be able to do.
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charles: mark, i know you support donald trump. but one thing a lot of folks are talking about are the negatives. there was a piece out today with a chart that goes back 92 elections showing candidates with huge negatives. for the most part they always lost. donald trump's negatives at this stage of the game are lower than even those negatives were. do you see that as an obstacle? >> not at all. wouldn't nominees are picked, there is a honeymoon period where their ratings go up. if hillary clinton is the nominee the favorable ratings will cancel each other out. if it is hillary clinton she never met a foe like donald trump. he will systematically dismantle the fraud that is the clinton legacy.
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trump is building a general election coalition. bernie and hillary are appealing to their base and race and gender politics. that's not a broad coalition. charles: trump has appeal to what we used to call reagan democrats. my 19-year-old son, his vote for president will be donald trump. he's reaching across lines others in the gop, i don't know if they attempted it. >> it cuts both ways. i can say firsthand going to college campuses and talking to younger audience. as much as he might be gaining, there is hesitancy and antagonism. there is something to be said about trump expanding the electorate. but there are portions of the population. i would love to hear the argument now donald trump is going to do better with single women.
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those are the fastest growing portion of the population republicans are struggling with and given his language and rhetoric i don't know how he could do better. charles: univision spending a lot of money. negative ads against donald trump reminding them of the announcement. people are going to pile on him and what we see now during this nomination process will be echoed over and over again. there is -- there is 55 million republicans in the united states. 35% of them like donald trump. there are probably 20% of democrats that donald trump can make an appeal to. he seems to split evenly among independents. when we break the numbers down he look like a general elect loser. he did not look like a guy who can win a general elect. basically here is how it goes.
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he starts off and steals one in five potential democrats from hillary clinton. but she reaches back and steals from the other side. the suburbanites in the suburbs decide every elect and i don't think he's doing well with womb been in those suburbs. charles: the judge ruled the top aides and 8 department officials to hillary clinton should be questioned about whether they allowed the use of a private email server. and the judge behinded he may -- hinted he may issue an order to upa anup -- who huma abedin.
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charles: donald trump's entrance into the political arena shocked many americans. many americans honor his honesty, but many are saying they would never vote for donald trump. eric, i'll start with you. you wrote a piece saying you would not vote for donald trump under any circumstance. why would you not vote for the gop nominee fit was donald trump? >> because i don't think donald trump is a conservative. i don't think there was a road to damascus conversion, he converted because he wants to date the preacher's daughter.
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four years ago donald trump opposed the republicans, funded the democrats. two years ago he funded the establishment. then on stage the defining seal the deal for me was he was on stage and called planned parenthood wonderful. this is an organization that stealed children and chops up their body parts. charles: people who have been friend for decade now don't speak to each other because of this issue. you talked about unity. how do you fix something like this? >> not everybody is a hard-core conservative. we are americans first. we have an opportunity to take the white house, keep the senate and make sure chuck schumer is the majority leader.
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if we don't support that nominee after the bloodbath. i heard you say yesterday that there is going to be another republican coming through that door that you are going to vote for. with all due respect that person has no chance of winning. so you are throwing your vote away. when you have good senators with good people with great ideas how to put this country back. it's interesting he admitted going into this not every american conservative including donald trump, i don't want to
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vote for a liberal who supports planned parenthood. charles: if someone says by not voting for the eventual nominee, it is a de facto vote for hillary or bernie, are you willing to take the country in that direction? >> i think if donald trump were elected we take that in that direction. i have no faith in donald trump that he has had a conversion. >> eric, i have a lot of respect for you. but we have a process here. we have 15 people. every single one of them would have made a better president than hillary or bernie. we are at the moment of truth. either we put that genie back in the bottle and reestablish our ties with our allies, he's going
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to surround himself with great people. any one of these people would be better than hillary. by you throwing your vote away and every other morning supports you you will make hillary clinton the president. charles: let's leave it there. we'll talk more in the show about all of this. a lot was made about a so-called pledge and that pledge should work both ways. we'll talk about the establishment. their last stand to beat donald trump.
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charles: talking about the gop establishment, it's all hand on deck. they want to deny donald trump the nomination. marco rubio, they are falling out of the skies. we are talking key republicans from every era. take a look at some of them on your screen just as jeb bush threw in the towel. last chance to derail the trump train. richard, you haven't had a chance to weigh in on the show yet. it feels like this is the last stand. rubio will probably have unlimited money and unlimited
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access to the power structure, but will that be enough? >> i think the big story is it's coming down between trump and rubio, not trump and cruz. it seems like ted cruz is getting pushed out and there is a whole bunch of the non-trump vote going to rubio. i think there is a belief within the republican establishment and republican activists, i think there is a belief that if you don't want trump, you better get behind rubio so that the rubio-cruz vote is not split. charles: senator brown, you were so fired up last segment, that's what propelled you to the senate, by the way. to that point richard made, the non-trump vote, if you are in a state and whoever is polling in number two, vote for that person no matter who you are just to derail donald trump.
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doesn't that muddle up the entire process? >> first of all, good luck. the math as you talked about with neil is getting aa little bit ahead. you will be reaching and reaching. they better hurry up and make a decision who they will support for number of two. i love marco and ted. any one of them would make a better president than hillary and bernie. but don't you think it's ironic that in years past we had the activists and the outliers going to teach us a lesson and show mitt romney a lesson, now we have the establishment that's going to show the so-called outsiders a lesson. the lesson is i'm not going to vote for donald trump if he, the ultimate nominee. no offense, you will have president clinton or president sanders. are you kidding me? i will support the ultimate
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nominee no matter how it is so we can retain the house and senate and take the presidency. charles: can ultimately this thing be held no matter who wins? >> sure. you are talking about how marco rubio is getting the establishment support. when he was running for sneat was running against charlie c rirks st. -- running for senate, he was running against charlie crist. i think what you are seeing is there is a movement on the right and in the country in general where they want change, they reject what president obama has been doing. we are seeing higher turnout amongst republicans. we see weakness on the democratic party side. i think that's the real big story here.
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charles: the power structure in washington, d.c. their world could be turned upside down and a ton of money is pouring into the marco rubio coffers. >> this isn't something that's necessarily noble. people may want to stand back and see who they found themselves aligned with. this all about the consultants in washington, d.c. keeping their jobs. the people who like to have influence and wield their influence and money. they know donald trump is going to put a stop to that, or at least they are afraid he is. they are putting out all the stops to turn their fire on donald trump. this should send a message to americans where the dividing line is coming in. charles: we are out of time for this segment. i would say a lot of people see the trump train coming and the
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gravy train gone. in the meantime i want to talk about oil. it tumbled today. but there are two other narratives from the session no one talked about and i will when we come back.
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charles: i know stocks tumbled with oil. but there were two narratives that moves individual stocks and a broader market. maybe cheap gasoline. home depot a strong number, cracker barrel a stronging number. folks are spoafngds that money they saved at the gas station.
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but there is a ton of anxiety. each components became more pessimistic. all of those things implying business bad, jobs hard to get, income decrease. all of those things higher. everything was absolutely negative. as a consequence it was a tough day. it proves the on thing we know with certainty is uncertain certainty. i hope you figured that out, i just made it up. some this unions wants to boycott beyonce after her black panther show. you were pretty outraged at that halftime performance and since then you have had police officers say they would boycott
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off hours to provide security. is this going to help the situation or inflame it even more? >> it will make it more. i don't care who she hires as public security as long as public reverses in the form of police officers aren't used. she has a good brands. she has to be careful with it. i can't believe she would crawl in bed with the devil i call lewis farakan. this guy spews hate, racism pech's an anti-semite. he called for 10,000 black men to rise and kill 10,000 white people. he came t came to milwaukee ande called my office to ask if we would provide security for him. i said if you paid me i wouldn't provide security.
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charles: the muslims who follow him, there are rigid guidelines, people say maybe there wouldn't be families broken and drug addiction and those kinds of things. is it wrong to put him on a pedestal or do the other things completely mitigate that? >> there are enough positive role models in large cities across the united states to not have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for rules farakan to be held up as a role model. he comes in, spews hate. he's done nothing to improve black life in any stay in america. i think that's a guy who should be shunned. if you are a parent out there you should keep your sons and daughters away from the likes of lewis farakan as a role model. if you do, you will do nothing but lead life in a downward spiral.
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he can do and say whatever he warrants. but when it comes to being a positive role model in the black community in america he is not that. charles: shaffer clark web's a straight short, we love it. see you have soon. tonight you don't want to miss our coverage of the nevada caucus. this is special coverage at begins at 11:00 p.m. we have special guests, joe arpaio, former governor of arizona jan brewer. and chuck woolery. president obama details his plans to close gitmo. does nimby come to minds? ♪
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>> let me say this, mr. president. don't shut down gitmo. expand it and let's have some new terrorists here. >> these are enemy combatants and soldiers of terrorist organizations and as soon as you release them, they joint fight against us. >> i'm concerned about the legal ramifications here. what additional rights and privileges will these people accrue because of the very fact of geography. they are no longer in guantanamo in cuba but they are near the united states. how much more difficult will that make circumstances for the u.s. government? charles: that was just a smidgen of the outrage from
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conservatives. u.s. officials say the plan would save the government between $65 million to $85 million annually. but republicans are calling the move illegal. spain and morocco, police there just arrested just moments ago, about an hour ago, four suspected recruiting members for isis, and one of those arrests was a former gitmo detainee. president obama seems to be laying out this last-ditch effort knowing the conservatives are going to reject. but does this set up an executive order before he leaves office to get this done? >> i don't think he can get an executive order to get this done. it seems like pure political rhetoric. he signed a law that said i can't do that without authorization.
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so it's pure political rhetoric. charles: what do you make of it? it is rhetoric and it's at an awkward time, weird time. but the president made his pitch again. what's it all about? >> he's going to visit cuba so he want to have some sort of announcement that will make him look good in front of cubans and the world. the world is not asking for this. this is not a recruiting tool. it's a ridiculous idea. i'll tell you what a recruiting tool is for isis and other radical islamists. it's a weak u.s. president, weak u.s. leadership. that's a recruiting tool. i don't think there will be any radical islamist that is some how going to throw their hand up and same game over because gitmo was shut down. that's not why they are attacking free, that's not why they are attacking the united states.
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these people slit children's throats not because of gitmo but because they hate freedom. we need to remember that. president obama has clearly shown that this is all about politic. this is in the last nine months of his presidency he is trying to be able to say to his base and to the planners of his presidential library, that he did something to try to keep this political promise. charles: commander sears, president obama talked about the jumpsuit and everywhere he went around the world our allies were offended. do you think there is a kernel of truth in that? >> no. the drone strikes are a recruiting tool. our support of israel is a recruiting tool. our support of saudi arabia is a
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recruiting tool. our values are he cuting tools. they can -- our values are recruiting tools. charles: the nevada caucus is today and the stakes are high. we'll hash it out for you. there is a whole lot of narratives at play and a lot at stake. we'll be right back.
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about all of this and, of course, donald trump, will attempt to solidify his lead in this race for the republican nomination. cruz been bearing the brunt of trump's vicious attacks while the gop establishment has rallied around marco rubio. what can we expect from nevada tonight? joining me, charlie kirk, kirsten haglund and gina loudon. 51% said dead, i've asked for new names, i'll share some of them. a lot of teem people saying no matter what happens this process has killed the grand ol' party and something coming out of the ashes. >> something in the lives of americans who struggled in obama's economy. i'm fine with the republican party changing. it's due for big, big change, and they're experiencing it. fighting against it. let me tell you what the headline is going to be tomorrow, charles, regardless of the results tonight.
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trump wins, rubio is picking up steam and ted cruz is on his way out. that's the narrative. that's the story that the media and the party elites want us to believe because they are wanting to change the party. charles: why wouldn't be that true? sounds like that's what's going on. >> ted cruz might do very well tonight. he's got good ground game. good support there, but, look, it's because rubio is who they want. that's why it's probably going to be that way no matter what the results. i think there is this growth of support for rubio because there's fear of the party changing, and change is what the voters are telling us they desperately want. charles: charlie, as a millennial voter you represent the future of the party. how would you like to see this shake out? >> yeah, if the gop is alive, i wouldn't know it. look, i think dramatic change for the party leadership is a good thing. i would argue if marco rubio is
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the nominee. that's a better trend and direction than mitt romney, john mccain, bob dole test trials and burns in the last couple election cycles that we've seen, rubio is a fresh face and a fresh name. you have to put a lot of the blame of the insurgent rise in donald trump on house leadership. republican voters handed the keys to john boehner and mitch mcconnell said they were going to get stuff and didn't. and did not stand on principle, and donald trump is running. charles: granted it was obama's budget. >> and went back on every promise they made. they broke every single promise they made. charles: gina, i refer to the piece that you wrote, it's brilliant. everyone talking about the establishment lane, you're saying ted cruz should move out of way, this would quicken the pace for donald trump. put this to bed and probably give the party time to unify on one candidate instead of all of this divisiveness. >> i mean, it depends, if
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people want truly something different from the establishment. if people don't want all of the establishment to coalesce and give money to marco rubio exactly as we're seeing happen today, charles, then they have a choice to make. they're the anti-establishment side which has fallen out to be droiment and the pro establishment side, if he isn't beholden to them, imagine the money from the consultants from people who want the political favorites and status quo in washington, d.c. imagine if the money goes marco, imagine how beholden he'll be to them. charles: a report today, super pac is going to spend 3 million on super tuesday. they are pouring a bunch of money behind marko. you like marco, huh? >> i'm a young millennial voter like charlie kirk who is right that marco rubio used to not be establishment at all. remember when he was working and reaching across the aisle. conservative and moderate on issues, and if republicans want
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to win talking about wanting to win in november, they've got to pick someone who beats hillary and bernie sanders in the polls. marco rubio does. that i think he's the face of the future. charles: we got to leave it there. you were fantastic. lou dobbs is next. lou: good evening, everybody, i'm lou dobbs. it's 7:00 on the east coast, 4:00 in nevada where republican voters are preparing to caucus one hour from now. unlike from what we've seen in iowa or new hampshire and this past weekend in south carolina, turnout in nevada is expected to be low. 7% of nevada's 400,000 republican voters turned out to caucus in 2012. however, a new nevada party official now says preregistration has hit 41,000. so we will see. the political savants are also expecting this to be a huge night for donald trump. the heavy favorite.


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