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tv   Americas Newsroom With Bill Hemmer and Martha Mac Callum  FOX News  February 1, 2016 6:00am-8:01am PST

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guys. >> there you go. >> make sure you have a corn muffin. >> brian, this rotel stuff on there. all right, brian, great job today. bret we'll be watching you tonight. we'll be back here tomorrow. 1 by fox news alert. kicking off the 2016 no nateing process. the race has been tightening, or so we have been told. 12 republican candidate. that's the field and in all likelihood this will be very narrow after the results are announced. for some of those contenders this could be the last day of their campaign. good morning. we are live in des moines. martha: the day is finally here. great to have you here with us. we are live in des moines,
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iowa's capital city. people will be meeting across this state. they will take part in the caucuses. how many of them do that is one of the big factors we'll be watching. this event marks a new phase in the presidential race that has seen so many unexpected and unpreced i can't help but feel we have talked so long about this impact about the african-american if -- about the trump ification of the political process. i want to start with byron york fox news political contributor. a couple things, a number of
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great talking points. here is a radical idea. what if the polls are right? >> we have trump 28, cruz 23, rubio 15 in "the des moines register" poll. do we have any evidence that's not the case in we had evidence that something was going on out there. we don't have that. it looks fairly stable among the top three. bill: cruz's camp this weekend met with reporters and they broke down to the number how many people in iowa they have to get away from trump, how many they have to get away from rubio and how many away from ben carson. they are the most info tech
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people in this campaign. on the other split side of that. the biggest number of volunteers here in iowa, 12,000. 1,800 precinct captains and co-captains who will speak on ted cruz's behalf. ted cruz has been traveling stop after stop sometimes 7 stops a day meeting people 200 people at a time. bill: that's conventional. in the past that's what you needed to do. trump says he has a good ground game. >> he says it but no one has seen it. they are look for the number of precinct captains signed up. they are looking for volunteers. trump is relying more than any
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other candidate on the enthusiasm and word-of-mouth contact between his supporters. if there is a candidate who could under perform it would be because of that and because of trump. bill: among the single digit candidates, christie, bush, kasich, do you see a breakout in iowa? >> no. if you look at the polls, you have trump, cruz, rubio at the top, you have ben carson at 10 per there are the middle. everybody else is way down. i don't think there is any chance those low-polling candidates will rocket out of the 2% to 3% range. i don't see anybody in that group being in much different shape tomorrow. bill: how very many you covered now? >> several.
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bill: mine goes back to 2004. >> the big one was rick santorum. he was 15% before the caucasus. but at the time the register * pollster says we see growth. the fact that he was 15% shortly before the you a cusses was a big deal. and that growth continued exponentially before the caucuses. but this time register pollers tell us they don't see any such surge happening for any cabinet. bill: scouring the state in person is byron york. martha: the candidates are crisscrossing the hawkeye state. so much has gone into the work
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of this campaign and they are about to see the fruits of those results. ted cruz was at a rally yesterday and says he believes america is in crisis. there is a hopeful message and change is coming. >> we know the threats. we know the challenges. but i'm here tonight with a word of hope and encouragement all over this country people are wake up, and help is on the way. bill: from cruz sunday. dr. ben carson says his campaign is seeing large crowds. strong enthusiasm. they think they have a good grounds game as well. he talked to gretta about that yesterday. >> i think with it comes down to the actual vote will be looking to listen to their heart. i think that will make a huge
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difference. i think everybody will be completely shocked. martha: some of the gop establishment candidates are looking to break through in this iowa race. part of the challenges is there are too many choices for gop vote horse might like -- voters who might like an establishment candidate. reporter: if you like a governor for president you have three in the establishment lane with former governor george bush, juror chris christie and john kasich. >> we have candidates who are gifted talkers. but there is nothing in their back ground that suggests they have have the ability to fix the
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mess in washington, d.c. >> maybe you had someone else in mind. they are not going to win iowa and not going to win the nomination. i ask you with all due respect to consider switching your vote. reporter: john kasich has already switched his focus to new hampshire. martha: it's interesting to see the different tenor each of these candidates bring to the final appeal in those sound bites you just showed us. eventually the pressure starts to build on some of these candidates other money starts to dry up. when do we expect the first group to drop? >> very quickly. if you have donald trump leasing his own new lane, then you have perhaps testified cruz leading in thed the traditional
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conservative lane and there is great pressure on the establishment to rally around one person they can compete with. >> we probably aren't going to see rubio be that person them coalesce around. we may see it down the road. is it going to be a social conservative? more stab meteorologist we don't know at this point. >> if trump and cruz build momentum quickly. martha: big day, mike, thank you. bill: we'll are live coverage. bret hosts special report. in a short time after that, the caucus will begin so we have comprehensive coverage. frankly as long as it takes.
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we'll get the best coverage anywhere right here. you will be doing entrance polls. martha: we are going into the polls. we'll get an idea who the late deciders are. that tell as you lot as well. bill: i'll be at the microsoft center. microsoft is running the technology and the software. all the precinct captains, democrats and republicans, 1,600, 1,700 across iowa. they have an app on their phone and them report the numbers on their app. how is this going to go? it never went this way before. martha: we'll be back with more on the day ahead.
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bill: je will hillary clinton'sd bernie sanders's supporters turn out tonight? >> when there was a problem i didn't cut and run. marco rubio is a gifted guy. he's eloquent. he's gifted, he's a talent. but i have a proven record of leadership.
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bill: how important is voter turnout in iowa? it is everything. jeff, a lot to go through with you. record caucus turnout was 122,000 four years ago. you are saying 150,000 could participate? that would be a sizable jump. >> governor branstad threw out that number of 150,000. it could be more or it could be less. i don't think we go beyond that 122,000 turnout. bill: did you see 122,000
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showing up four years ago? >> not like this. when i talk intensity. we are getting 100 phone calls an hour into r.p.i. the republican party of iowa. we get about five or sick an hour normally. this is beyond the pale. bill: what are they asking in where do i caucus? >> everything. where do i caucus. giving their suggestions to the campaigns. a lot of democrats and independent changing their vote to republican the the secretary of state's report indicated 3,000 people are done that already. i think we'll see a surge already. bill: you are saying independents and democrats. >> from january 4 to january 24 changed their vote of registration.
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bill: what does that tell you. we are hearing some rhetoric from donald trump, we are hearing rand paul talk about giving the younger voter which may be democratic. we are definitely seeing some signs that is reinforcing some of the rhetoric. bill: 100 phone calls an hour. democrats an independent shifting their party registration. you are deeply involved in this. microsoft developed an app for free. they are running it for republicans and democrats. all over iowa, they have an app on their phone. here is how it works. if i were to hit it it says authorize, you enter your cell phone number. if i were authorized it would allow me to put the number of votes from that precinct
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according to candidates and enter it. if i were authorized it would go through. it has never been done before. you have done three dry runs. what your expectation on how this will work. >> we had a conversation with microsoft folks. they sent in some of the world's best engineers, world many best engineers. talked to the vice president who answers to the ceo. they are feeling confident. yietion cautiously optimistic this will report things not on with new transparency. there is some intern checks, so if there is cautionary situations, we'll call those precincts. the other thing i need to add that's step up kind of left aside which could be some of the most important reforms we implemented. along with this we'll certify
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the results in 48 hours. four years ago it drug out two week. bill: but in 2012 it was not tabulated with the accuracy you wanted or the rest of america wanted. the software team did not work for the romney team the way they wanted it either. this thing is going to work tonight? are you assuring that? >> i'm putting my faith in microsoft tonight.: all right. senator ted cruz make his fine push for support in the state of iowa. some polls show thumb one. some show number two. but some say he should not be counted out yet. and i don't think anybody can be counted out yet. one of his supporters, congressman steve king of iowa coming up. first everybody on the trail
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showing the latest things they have said. here is marco rubio. >> he goes to new york and raises a bunch of money from new yorkers then comes to iowa and attacks new york values. as people learned more about hip they realize he's not consistent conservative but politically calculated. i've smoked a lot and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq.
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>> let me tell you. there has been no one more relentless, no one more passionate. no one more faithful, no one more faithful in stopping to --
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fighting to stop amnesty and protecting the bored than iowa's steve king. and i have been proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with him. martha: king endorsed the conservative texas senator back in november and he joins us on the set. good morning. good to have you here today. how are you feeling about today? >> i'm feeling optimistic. everybody on the cruz side has done all the things they can do. the we'll just pack aingt up by 7:00 tonight. i'm optimistic. i think it will and close race. but i think ted cruz does win this in a close race tonight. martha: ted cruz put so much time and everything in, 12,000
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volunteers is what we are hearing. if it turns out that doesn't work and what does work is social rallies. >> last time rick santorum did 385 meetings in iowa and came away winning the iowa caucus. this time the best ground game is ted cruz. if donald trump should win this tonight it will be a if he none that we have not seen before. it will go against and lot of other things we've thought like playing nice should count for something. >> in terms of the evangelical vote, ted cruz has been fervent on his calls. but there is a thinking that there are like in every group in life there are different kinds of evangelicals and many of them are attractive to the message
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donald trump has been putting out there, and the other portion of them are going to go with cruz. on this game according to the latest polls taking 8-10%. so that has to be in your mind as well. >> we know by all the polls we have seen, ted cruz is leading in the cruz among the evangelicals. but i wouldn't think that was a question. it seems to be running contrary to what you would expect. i don't know that he could have stayed on campus for a student by saying what he said in that speech. it's clear that ted cruz's evangelical roots go very deep. you can't get to your convictions into your bones any deeper than that. martha: when you look at this race and you look at the fact
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that sarah palin came out for donald trump. he garnered the attention from people he would not normally have garnered it from, what does it tell you about ted cruz's candidates i. fan he doesn't win. >iowa, what'shis argument going. >> some of the endorsements that have gone trump's what i don't seem to have matched up with his ideology. he has a whole array of resources he can put on the table. this the fear factor. his relentless reading and attacking people. that's part of the endorsement. martha: he threatens people who don't support him? >> he has threatened retribution against people. i think ted cruz wins tonight.
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i think it will be a hard argument for donald trump after that. should ted cruz fall a few votes short, he still has a tremendous machine he put together. he planned a nationwide campaign. he race raised the money he said he would raise. this goes on, it will be a tough race through the' sc primary. who is going to be negotiating with putin and staring him down across that's geopolitical chess board? as much as you have might like mike huckabee or rand paul, send him a thank you note.
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you don't vote for ted cruz, you are voaght for donald trump. martha: yo you have said you wod like the campaign to go on forever and ever. i don't know if we could hold up. bill: what will be the story tomorrow. consider rove on the breakdown and potential surprises. and there will be surprises. there always are. >> this isn't a reality tv show. show time is over. it's game time. when game time comes we need real players on the field. folks who really can do the job. game time for our country. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow.
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bill: this is where the official winners will decided come monday night. 99 counties, a lot of those come from lynn county and the eastern part of the state, that's cedar rapids. but by far most come from polk county where we are in des moines. sioux city, the far northwestern part of the state. if you have hit all 99 counties, that's what they call the full grass lane. iowa, it's in your hands. let's get started. there was a jogger that came by and said excuse me, do you have a permit for that? martha: i saw you standing out there on the map of the counties. do you have a permit to be here, sir? you didn't turn around for a
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little bit thinking they would go away. bill: you were on to me. martha: that's an amazing complex. bill: we could take that granite slab back to new york. 34 past the hour. martha: the iowa caucuses getting under way in just a few hours from now. everybody across the state having their coffee thinking who they are going to vote for. who they are going to caucus for. the candidates donald trump and ted cruz considered the frontrunners. other republican candidates look ahead. new hampshire's primary ... >> we need to turn washington upside down like i did. we need to disrupt the cultural so we start fixing problems. >> i have a record of accomplish can.
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i have a positive vision about what we can do, i can bring people together. those who studied it careful live have said that in the newspaper endorsements. they are either going to like me or they are not. >> i have been tested on every challenge they can put in front of me as public servants. and here i stands ready to take on the next crisis and ready to rebuild our nation and make us proud of again. martha: a lot of strong people out there in this race. karl, good morning to you. we wait for people to begin this process. you look at those sound bites from people who a year ago everybody would have thought would have been at the top of this ticket, at the top of these polls. jeb bush and kasich, the governor ohio, the governor of new jersey.
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people expected to be very strong in this race and, boy, has this been turned on its head. how does this turn out? >> no one knows. tonight we vote on less than 1% of the delegates. and my sense is we are going to have some surprised tonight and we are going to have the first of what is going to be i suspect a relatively long contest for both sides. this is a topsy-turvy year. the unconventional candidates on all sides. donald trump and bernie sanders have gained traction with an electorate that is angry with washington and desires a dramatic drastic change. martha: you make such a good points, carolina *. it takes 1,237 delegates to secure this nomination. less than 1% of those delegates will be decided tonight. we heard carly fiorina talking this morning saying this is the
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very beginning of this process. tonight marks the moment you will have people voting and expressing their opinions for the first time. then you have others saying if cruz doesn't win tonight donald trump will run the table? what do you say? >> tonight will give us indications of the relative treants of the candidates. on the republican side it had donald trump at 28. he would get just over a quarter of the delegates and ted cruz we'll get just under a quarter of the delegates. they will be celebrated by 1 or 2 delegates. between no march there will be only one winner take all contest. as long as the field is crowd and people are relatively close. somebody gets 9 delegates.
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somebody gets 5 delegates. then it gets altered around. it won't be until we get to the 15th of march. the ides of march when big state begin voting. either winner take all at the state level or congressional level. and i think we'll start to see separation of the frontrunner, and whoever that is. martha: there are those who say certain people need to drop out of this race. the money is not there to support them and they need to galvanize behind an alternative to donald trump. is that an argument you stand behind? >> i think it's an argument that will be made. you have 1 people in the field. and nobody is -- you don't want a candidate to win the nomination who gets in the consistently in the third but the other 60% or 70% of the
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party doesn't support them. you don't want somebody to win the winner take all 8 by getting 50% or 45% or 0%. but you put your finger on an important point. some these candidate will find it impossible to continue their campaign because they are not raising money. you can't run a campaign on good looks and a wish. you have got to have the money to pay to move you around the country and do some amount of organizing. some amount of advertising, even if you are on doing digital advertising, it's still expensive to do that. last night everybody had to put forth their final report for the end of 2015, and we saw some candidate as of december 31, a million or 2 million or 3 million or 4 million in the bank. it will be hard to launch a national campaign with a war chest that small.
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martha: i saw emails going out. give me $5, $15 before the end of the night tonight. those small donations that make you realize how hard the work is to keep that enthusiasm going. they have to keep it rolling or else they need to reconsider. god to see you. we'll peak to you more in the coming days. by there is a razor-tight race between sanders and clinton. who wins among the democrats. will bernie sanders make gains against hillary clinton? >> this campaign is not just about electing a new path. what this campaign is about is a political revolution. what happens when lobster gets grilled, baked,
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by caucus day in iowa finally arrived. the candidate make their final push in the hawkeye state hours before the first real votes of the race are caucused here in iowa. >> i promise you this. if you stand up for me tomorrow night i will stand up and fight for you through this campaign and into the white house every single day. >> this is a campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people. we need tens of millions of people to stand up and say loudly and clearly, enough is enough!
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bill: they have got it down. katie pavlich, maryanne mash. ladies, you could summarize the democratic contest in the following way. enthusiasm versus organization. marianne who has the enthusiasm. who has the organization. >> sanders has the evening on enthusiasm. hillary the organization. she has the more committed supporters much like donald trump, they are with her and nobody else, and they are more likely to go to the caucuses. on that edge alone, that makes a big difference. especially in the democratic version. the clinton team put together the best organization you have seen since obama in 2008. and they have the technology the
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likes of which nobody else has. there is an app that alloys you to see how many caucus voters you need to win. bill: we'll see if it works that way. but you have never been a sanders fan. >> i like hillary clinton. but give it to bernie sanders. he raised $20 million this month alone. he has come from 40 points behind to basically a dead heat with her. he's 17, 18, 19 points ahead of her in new hampshire. if sanders wins he goes 2-0. if she wins tonight it gives her a shot at new hampshire. bill: katie, enthusiasm versus organization.
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who has got it, who wins? >> i agree with marianne that hillary has the organization on her side. she doesn't want to go through losing again so she has learned from her mistakes. but bernie sanders has a lot of enthusiasm and new caucus-goers who are interested in getting involved in the process. he also has supporters like the college kids on campuses who aren't necessarily counted in these polls. we know polling in iowa is notoriously wrong. i think bernie sanders has a good chance to take iowa. if he takes iowa he will certainly take new hampshire. bill: you have got email story hang out there, who knows what the f.b.i. does. who knows what the justice department does.
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hillary clinton talked about the method on behalf of her opponents to discredit her through insinuation and implication. i guess the right wing conspiracy is missing for the moment because the response kinds of sounded like the defense we heard in the past, absent that phrase right-wing conspiracy. >> sanders is using it to his advantage to close out the caucuses. normally you would wants to end on a positive note to note rate your supporters. sanders is motivating his supporters by going after clinton. you can understand it when you look at "the des moines register" poll. that's one exception i have with katie. the question is can sanders get those kids to go home to caucus instead of staying there. sanders is motivating his supporters by going after clinton. you would rather be clinton
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going into tonight but it's going to be a tough race. >> through insinuation and implication in the closing 36 hours. >> hillary clinton continues to act like the investigation from the f.b.i., the information brought forward by a non-partisan inspector general shows she has classified top secret information on her server is a vs right-wing conspiracy and the f.b.i. and inspector general partnered up with republicans to go against her. she made a decision to put the national the security of the united states at a lower priority than her own personal convenience and she cities paying the price for it. she continues to say at town hall meetings that she did nothing wrong. i have news for you have. putting the class ifified information at risk is wrong. from democrats and republicans
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in the yearn election she has to get past in the that if she gets past new hampshire. bill: ladies, hold the tape or recording. thank you. as they are speaking, remember sanders builds his campaign largely through youth movement. we talked all weekend it's the first legitimate election where social media is going play a part. martha: people talked about barack obama using social media and eight was a new fangled thing people couldn't get their arms around. but we'll find out if the model changed dramatically. bernie sanders and donald trump could be redoing the ray we do things. there is another provocation from iran that we want to get into the news. in the wake of the controversial nuclear deal.
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the ayatollah turning a routine incident on sheet seas as an act of heroism against the united states. stick with us, folks. we'll be right back. oh remotes, you've had it tough.
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martha: it's a busy day in the political world. we have breaking news raising eyebrows in the united states. the ayatollah, iran's supreme leaders giving medals to his troops who he says captured u.s. navy sailors during tense incident in the persian gulf last month. you don't often see a picture like this.
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clearly, this ice message iran -- clearly, this is a message iran wants the world to see. reporter: these are iranian victory members and they were awarded to five revolutionary guards for capturing and intruding the american sailors. one was published side by side with the sailors with their hands on their head. one of the sailors later apologized. >> it was a mistake and we apologize. the iranian behavior was temperature great while we were here and we thank you for your assistance.reporter: the ayatolh
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continues to embarrass the u.s. and score points at home by awarding these medals. martha: what has bent response from the white house? reporter: the white house has not responded directly to this latest incident. but sick to john kerry thanked the run yants for the quick resolution of this issue. but after seeing this footage secretary of state john kerry said it infuriated him. >> it was unfortunate. inappropriate, and as a former sailor and member of the military i was infuriated at it and i expressed that. reporter: the issue could come up at the regular briefing held at the white house and state department. we'll see if the administration
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addresses it or just lets it be. bill: we are 10 hours away. brit hume will analyze the closing moments. where will this story be tomorrow? hii'm here to tell homeowners that are sixty-two and older about a great way to live a better retirement... . . . .
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you've got the power, to turn on the light shape the best sleep of your life. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology adjust any way you want it. the bed that moves you. only at a sleep number store. martha: all eyes on iowa with caucuses just hours away. how many have we said that? we're getting close, i promise. months of campaigning went into this. phone calls, millions of dollars that have been spent on advertising. boy, people who behave the millions of dollars away are open hoping to get results over the course of next evening. welcome, everybody, brand new hour of "america's newsroom." i'm martha maccallum. our last hour, unless a snowstorm has us back here tomorrow we're leaving tonight. bill: don't believe the forecast. i'm bill hemmer. how are you doing? martha: i'm great. bill: we were out and about over
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the weekend. two things to share with viewers at home at headquarters to get the paraphernalia. this is what trump's campaign rests on following line. built entirely on person-to-person relationships and turning out like-minded neighbors who want to make america great again. bernie sanders strategy very interesting. since a couple weeks ago, the caucus locations have been changed. they printed up door hang guesser. your caucus location is, boom, boom. it gives you address right on the bottom. so this is their final closing argument strategy to turn people out which as you know we talked about a million times, all about the turnout. martha: does celebrity and does name recognition win the day? the i think that is going to be the biggest question of all? will we be sitting here tomorrow talking about the fact the game
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has changed? that donald trump got through there, newt gingrich said being on cover of "time" magazine in the late '80s, "the apprentice" and building relationship about american people and telling them he will make america great again. that is the new model or the unique trump model may be a winner. we'll see. bill: there are countless storylines in part because there hasn't been a voter or caucus happened just yet. because of the sheer number of candidates especially on republican side captured the imagination of the country as the drama increases by the moment. this guy knows, doesn't he. martha: we're talking about it but look who is sitting here, brit hume, fox news political analyst. >> nice to see you both. martha: this morning we were saying a year ago when they took a poll you thought jeb bush and scott walker were the most likely people to be the leaders in iowa and you know what a difference a year makes. how did we get here?
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>> not only a year, in politics sometimes 24 hours can be a lifetime. we're looking at poll from sunday all paying attention to. done by "the des moines register." has a very good track record. martha: right. >> the outcome looks like we would have thought, with trump ahead and cruz close behind and marco rubio bringing on third with a sort of a respectable but not overly exciting showing. who knows whether something like what happened four years ago here could happen in which the third place finisher at 15% whose name that year was rick santorum could surge in the last two days and actually win the thing. poor santorum he got shafted on that because on night of everybody thought that governor romney had won and he didn't but he got the bounce -- this isn't about delegates really. the dell bat election process is long and protracted. we won't know about delegates tonight. it's a beauty contest to see who
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can turn out voters. the voters are in charge now. martha: look at the final pitch ted cruz made yesterday and get your thoughts on this and what voter he is going for is pretty obvious i would say. >> just one minute a day, that you simply say, father god, please, continue this awaken. continue this spirit of revival. awaken the body of christ that we might pull back from the abyss. >> well, there you go. there are a lot of evangelical christians in the state. his father is a pastor. he knows how to speak the language of faith. i'm not suggesting he is not faithful. he can talk that talk. martha: absolutely. >> he sounded like a television evangelist there, didn't he? martha: he did. >> that is where he is going. he needs his organization to function as well as everybody thinks it will and may indeed be the best one in the state. the question is, really, whether that carries the day or whether
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the motivation of the trump supporters which i think is very strong will be enough to get enough of them to the polls so that the poll that we saw from sunday will turn out to be correct. >> you can see people, evangelical voters tomorrow whether we're all doing a look back how did this happen one way or the other. the great america great slogan is a very strong, persuasive single sentence that has worked for donald trump. so he is saying look, whether you're evangelical or whatever your background is, don't you want to make america great again? he seems to be slivering off a big chunk of evangelical call vote nobody thought he would get. >> the evidence he is a faithful christian is a little skimpy. i don't say he is not a christian, is not a regular churchgoer. evangelical christians go to church. we're not electing a pope.
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evangelical christians vote same reason everybody else votes, they like it if candidate shares their faith, it is not required. trump is fine with a lot of them. one thing i want to mention, martha, the very high percentage of iowa voters in both parties who believe that the american economic system is rigged against them. it is a gigantic majority among democrats. 67% think that. which goes right to bernie sanders message that we're all enslaved, we're enslaved by our wall street overlords. but even in the republican party it's a significant number of people who feel that way and donald trump seems to have a a striking appeal which is helping him a lot. that gives you idea where the electorate is. martha: same message is resonating on both ends with bernie sanders and donald trump voters. >> exactly right. martha: who would have thought donald trump would turn out to be the anti-wall street candidate. >> the anti-rich guy candidate. martha: one more question about ted cruz. from the very beginning his
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arguement has been, last time the base didn't turn out. that he could go to the base. he didn't have to play to the middle as is sort of normal way of looking at this, you need crossover voters. he said, no, i bring out the base. the test of that argument will happen tonight here. >> perhaps. that argument rests on the premise that the base had turned out in 2012 that mitt romney or whoever the republican candidate would have been would have won the raise. the evidence to support that proposition, people, studies have been done, it is pretty thin. so i'm not sure that if he can out the base that will be any of. you need to reach beyond the republican base, conservative base to wint election because numbers are just not there. whether he can do that is a big question. martha: some says if he gets 20% of the democratic vote. it was interesting because our guests earlier said they have had 1,000 people call in to
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change their affiliation from democratic or independent to republican over course of last three weeks. >> the republican race, despite closeness of democratic race, the republican race is really more exciting. you have this exotic frontrunner and an array of different personalities. they have been fighting like cornered rats now for a while so it makes the race a little more interesting. martha: good to see you, brit. >> thanks. martha: see you tonight. >> looking forward to it. bill: you can take candidates and spin mice terse and put them in one corner it only matters what iowa decides as we found out at sunday brunch. check it out. if it is hash browns or politics the waveland cafe has a pull political menu of caucus conversation. will you caucus on monday night? >> yes i will. bill: nick is all-in for bernie sanders. >> i do not want another clinton
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in there or a bush for that matter. i'm done with the family dynasties. i'm ready for something different. bill: nick doesn't care much for the big names but these women do. they will both caucus for hillary clinton. can she win in iowa? >> no. >> yes. bill: that was a no and that was a yes. >> you can see who is the stronger supporter. bill: what we found however, is fewer than half the diners here will even bother to caucus. laura has been waiting tables for almost four years. she does not blink in her support for dr. ben carson. you clearly thought about this for a long? >> oh, yeah. bill: can ben carson win in iowa? >> honestly i don't think he will. sadly because he is so about god and i know our nation has kind of fallen from god. bill: still, she'll caucus for carson on monday night but the perch family will not.
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in fact they won't even attend. instead they will wait for the general election in nope. who do you like? >> rubio. bill: rubio same? you guys vote together. >> yes. bill: what do you like about him? >> about the candidate or about my husband? [laughter] >> -- what she doesn't like. bill: on and on, that conversation went. very sweet family there. here is the riff they take though, if you don't caucus, republican or democrat, maybe your man and woman is not standing nine months from now in november. that is a big risk. how many people to say no, i'm not doing it. i never have. right around 20%. martha: talking about only 120,000 people on one side, maybe somewhere in that neighborhood on the other, you have got all this effort goes into this first in the caucus state and then you have a very small number of people actually show up to the make the decision but maybe we'll have record turnout tonight. bill: likely for republicans i bet.
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martha: could be, could be. have to break 122. so we will see. let's go over to the democrats and take a look at that side of the fence. peter doocy is following them from des moines. peter, how many democrats are planning to caucus for the first time, for the first time tonight? reporter: martha, looks like there are going to be a lot. last night at a sanders rally organizers asked the 1700 strong crowd how many never have caucused before? a majority of hands in the crowd went up. organizers from the sanders team, very carefully explained the caucus process twice. first-time caucus-goers have to be registered. they can do that on the spot. if he can turn the first-timers to have a big turnout it could help him a lot. as for final sanders pitch last few days, emphasis is beating back attacks from hillary clinton and her allies especially concerning his stance on health care. >> let me be very clear because i have been criticized for this.
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so let me say it for the umteenth time. people want to criticize me they can. i believe that health care is at right, not a privilege. [cheers and applause] reporter: the sanders campaign isn't just drawing the biggest crowds, the people in those crowds on the democratic side are doing something that you would normally see at rally, rather at a concert as opposed to political rally, reciting big sanders line in unison with the senator. hillary clinton using a lot of same words to hammer wall street that made him very popular in this state. >> we can't let big banks ever hurt the economy again. i went to long street before this became an issue, told them they would be hurting us unless they changed what they were doing. we're not letting companies getting away with doing that, especially ones we helped to be able to stay in business in the
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first place! reporter: martin o'malley and his supporters are also out in full force in iowa this morning but tonight he will not be considered a viable candidate that can continue in the caucus contest if he can't scrape together 15% of the people in the caucus room. i asked him if that happens who does he want his backers to my grat to, clinton or sanders, he wouldn't say. martha: thanks. bill: we're here on through the evening hours on the caucus coverage. our special live coverage starts at 6:00 eastern time. bret is live at state capitol building. we go deep into the hours of the late, late night here, see where we are on the other side as the journey rolls on here, martha. martha: we're just getting warmed up here this morning, getting you all information on what you need to know as we head into tonight and how the trump and sanders campaigns changed the tune for this election so far. bill: also just moments ago, marco rubio wrapping up an event
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here, crisscrossing the state. last moment closing argument he is making. live coverage from des moines in a moment here. it is caucus day 2016. >> 2016 is a referendum. it's a referendum on our identity. as a people, and as a nation. the choice before you is do you want to remain special, or are you prepared to be a once great nation in decline.
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♪ martha: the iowa caucuses are a political tradition. they are a right of passage in every single election cycle but this year some of the candidates are turning all of that upside down thanks to some unusual strategies. and social media. kirsten powers columnist for "usa today," fox news contributor. charlie hirt, columnist for "washington times." welcome to you both. i think back to the days of hanging chads, i can't believe we still do things this way, right? barack obama's campaign and people saying oh, he has this incredible database. it feels like, i know, politics is the last part of society to sort of pick up the fact that this stuff has completely changed our lives in terms of the way that people get messages. charlie, you think that this is historic in terms of a sea change we're seeing here?
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>> i think the past 10 years, past 10, 12 years will be looked at by historians as absolutely the most revolutionary period in politics, certainly in america and maybe in electoral campaigns. the 2004 campaigns with howard dean with the deaniacs, didn't turn out well for him, but what he did in terms of revolutionizing that campaign in terms of revolutionizing fund-raising and grassroots organization was nothing short of absolutely astonishing. every four years since then it is that entire revolution occurred once again in all new ways until the point where we have today. donald trump has a twitter feed that is closely watched and has a higher circulation than, doing quick math, and i'm not good at math, higher circulation than the five largest newspapers today i mean it's, candidates
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are able to bypass all of us, bypass newspapers, bypass egg. martha: speaking directly to his people and it's free and it is direct and obviously adds to that, kirsten, he is a celebrity. >> yeah. martha: we'll be looking at this tomorrow and saying, look, when you have a culture that is obsessed with social media, obsessed with reality tv, it is a completely different dynamic. >> it is. i feel a lot better having this conversation in about 12 hours. martha: i hear you. >> we have to wait and see whether these people will actually vote. the truth is, even if barack obama was revolutionary ran a campaign, he still ran an old-fashioned campaign at end of the day. they had a lot of voter contact. they made sure people got to the polls. we'll have to see whether donald trump will be able to do that. martha: sure. >> he is not, from what we're hearing, he has an organization, it is not that he doesn't have a organization, but he doesn't
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have a sophisticated organization a ted cruz has. we're going to find out. is this enough? can social media play the role? is that something we're caucusing today and people come out because we're doing it on social media? right now we don't really know the answer. martha: look at interesting graph, that shows numbers of stops all these folks made on their campaigns, right? interestingly, o'malley made the most stops of anybody. rick santorum, i'm sorry. o'malley are to the democrats. look at people on that list. donald trump didn't even make the top 10 terms of number of stops he made. if he does win tonight, you will have campaign managers making their bread and butter on this stuff, i better rethink my profession. >> kirsten and i were talking about this a minute ago. neither one of us like to make predictions, just -- martha: hate to be wrong, just admit it. >> it is embarrassing especially when you're wrong as often as i am, number two people on that list, rick santorum, mike huckabee, i feel confident
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in making this prediction. neither one of them is going to win today, tonight and they made the most stops. and i think it really does underscore the way the computers have taken over everything. martha: we'll do it again on the other side. we'll see if we're right. littls we'll be back. thanks so much. just a few dabs is clinically proven to seal out more food particles. super poligrip is part of my life now. try cool mint zantac. hey, need fast heartburn relief? it releases a cooling sensation in your mouth and throat. zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. try cool mint zantac. no pill relieves heartburn faster. when account lead craig wilson books at he gets a ready for you alert the second his room is ready. so he knows exactly when he can settle in and practice his big pitch. and when craig gets his pitch down pat, do you know what he becomes? great proposal! let's talk more over golf! great. better yet, how about over tennis?
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and that's extremely important while we're in a drought. it's a win for the customer and it's a win for california. together, we're building a better california. bill: marco rubio saying republican party leaders did not think he was ready to run this time around but the junior florida senator says he could not wait his turn. from cbs on sunday. watch. >> i knew that when i got into this race that the establishment, many people in the republican establishment didn't want me to run. they thought i needed to wait my turn or wait in line but i just felt that after seven years of barack obama this was no time for patience t was a time for action. so i ran and i knew that i would
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face some of this. >> this man never waits his turn. tucker carlson, co-host of "fox & friends weekend." editor of "the daily caller." >> hi, there, bill. bill: yes, sir. cruz-rubio, back and forth. >> yes. bill: here is an ad from cruz over the weekend to which there was a hardy response. watch here. >> they call ted cruz barack obama's nemesis because cruz fought obama care, said no to big spending, stopped amnesty in its track. caucus for cruz ask undo obama's damage. marco rubio is different, the republican obama who championed obama's amnesty and led the "gang of eight." bill: remember this argument here in the final three days. >> yes. bill: when cruz apparently took his negative ads and went after marco rubio instead of donald trump. maybe hitting both of them at same time but more rubio. >> for sure. bill: so he is seeing something obviously in their polling or perhaps something else. how do you see this? >> very hard for cruz to
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effectively attract trump because he tied himself to donald trump for some months up until relatively recently. he in effect refused to criticize donald trump expecting i believe that trump would get out or melt down or something. that didn't happen. so his attacks on trump are not as effective they might be if he started earlier. that is part of what is going on. the second part is the establishment, contrary to what senator rubio said, really coalesced and is around marco rubio and process of elimination. he, people in washington pretty much have decided that rubio is the last really credible republican who will maintain some kind of idealogical connection to the current republican party left. cruz is not acceptable to many of them. trump is often completely different category so it really has come down to rubio for washington. bill: read the tea leaves in the last couple of days, last 48 hours. rubio's team has says they have got momentum. i don't know, do they?
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>> pretty hard to -- they have a great deal of momentum in a macrosense. there was this race within a race to determine who would be the choice of in effect the current republican party. the donor class, the intellectual establishment of the republican party. i think marco rubio has conclusively won. for a time of course jeb bush was the assumed nominee. kasich for a moment. really it is down to rubio. not calling him a creature of the stabment but i am saying establishment does report support him this morning. i think that race is over and he won it. bill: listen to the cruz campaign they seem increasingly confident. >> yes. bill: when you play the expectations games, it is hard, it is hard to decipher what is true and what is hot air. and i remember all too well in 2008 when ed rollins walked across the floor of the hotel here in des moines, huckabee is going to win and 5:00 in the afternoon and he was right. >> yes.
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people are prone to honesty as we all are. bill: dishonesty. >> that proclivity gets higher closer to the election. i don't believe everything i hear on election day. candidate says i don't feel confident at all, i may get creamed today and get out tonight in a cloud of humiliation in tearful way. no one will admit that. rubio has backing of people who traditionally have been important in the republican party, that is the donors and intellectual establishment. i don't know that he is going to get the nomination but he has become kind of their guy and that is a big thing. bill: you don't think anyone will say today, i'm in full retreat head bowed? >> i don't think you find a candidate, you know what? i'm a loser. the voters conclusively proved that. bill: i agree with you. talk to you later. >> see ya, bill. martha: good to see you, tucker, thank you. hillary clinton comparing her top secret email scandal, she says it is pretty much like benghazi because it is nothing
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more than republicans who are grasping at straws. bill: first comes iowa and then it is all new hampshire starting tomorrow. some candidates already spending majority of time in the granite state like ohio governor john kasich. what is happening there that may tell us some clues starting tomorrow? former governor john sununu is live in manchester as our coverage rolls on in des moines. >> it's a perfect place for candidate to go, not funded by tons of billionaires and a place where people here don't care about celebrity, they don't care about anything. they take measure of you. that's why i have been so comfortable here.
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community to community i take a bus in new hampshire. and there's 1.3 million people. you can meet, i met all of them twice. only three more times to go. bill: do you know who is not in iowa? john kasich essentially camping out in new hampshire. ohio governor holding town hall meeting in new hampshire at the moment. will kasich's strategy work in the long run? john sununu, former new hampshire governor, live from manchester, former staff of president george h.w. bush. thank you, governor your time. >> how are you, bill? bill: i'm teen fine, thank you. see you on the weekend next weekend. first do you think kasich's strategy works or not? >> you know, this is a very important election to determine that. next tuesday in new hampshire the primary day is going to find out whether kasich and christie and bush, who have focused a lot of their campaigns will succeed in the old traditional new
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hampshire way or whether this a new cycle and whether or not flying in on a 757 and flying out is the most effective way to do it. but new hampshire voters are -- bill: on that, on that point, bill clinton skipped iowa in 1992 but he did it because tom harkin was from iowa and he had the place wrapped up. rudy giuliani more recent times skipped iowa and did not run a successful strategy, rather in new hampshire. i don't know how you, is that apples to apples or not do you believes, those two campaigns? >> look, if you want other examples, george herbert walker bush did not skip iowa and came in third in '88. came to new hampshire. did it new hampshire way and came out of here a winner and went on to the presidency. it changes a bit every four years, bill. it is hard to predict how it has
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changed ahead of time but everybody will have a field day looking backwards next tuesday and explaining to us all how it did change or not change. bill: true on that. quickly on the undecideds, said up to 39% here in iowa could change their minds tonight. after talking to many of them this weekend i believe that number to be accurate. is it the same in new hampshire? >> yeah, it is at least the same in new hampshire in my opinion. and even though new hampshire doesn't follow iowa, in terms of reacting the same way it pays attention to iowa and it takes a look what happens coming out of there and does affect the undecided as you go into the last moments. my guess is 40% here are undecided or liable to changing their mind. bill: we'll see what effect over next eight days n iowa, this is what we tell you, governor, battle between enthusiasm versus
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organization. who wins when you've got enthusiasm on one hand, organization on the other? >> you know, good organization has quiet enthusiasm. so i don't think it is as clear-cut of a message as that. frankly a lot of folks are enthusiastic sometimes don't even show up if there is no organization. so iowa's caucus system is being tested this time, new hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary is being tested this time. bill: got it. who wins in iowa, first on democrat side in razor-tight race at moment, sanders or clinton? >> bill, i told you before, i haven't got slightest idea what elect to tore rats are doing particularly in new hampshire and iowa. they are volatile. i suspect it will be sanders and clinton plus or minus one or 2% without being able to tell which one will win. bill: that's probably safe. republicans, who wins here? >> well trump has to win in iowa.
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he has made such a big deal in iowa. if he doesn't win iowa or doesn't win big in iowa, people wonder whether the bluff and bluster game he played is all bluff and bluster? cruz has to come in second. coming out of iowa, third, fourth and fifth will be important. bill: indeed it might be. it has in the past. thank you, governor,. >> third, forth and fifth will be three of the christie, bush, kasich, rubio crowd. and the order in which they come out of iowa will be important to them. bill: yeah. we'll see. thank you governor, see you next weekend. >> thanks, bill. have a great day. bill: you bet, thanks. martha. martha: so hillary clinton trying to brush off the email controversy and get it sort of under the rug as we head into the iowa caucuses but she does so by comparing it to another one of the scandals that has dogged her as secretary of state. watch this. >> this is very much like benghazi, george. you know the republicans are going to continue to use it, beat up on me.
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i understand that. that is the way they are. but after 11 hours of testimony answering every single question in public which i had requested for many months, i think it is pretty clear they're grasping at straws. martha: judge andrew napolitano, joins me right now, fox senior judicial analyst. good morning to you. >> good morning, martha. martha: your thoughts on her efforts to bat this abay? >> as far as we know there are not 100 fbi agents investigating what went on in benghazi as they are investigating whether or not she failed to secure state secrets and the news friday and the news this morning is very bad for her. friday we learned that the state department itself recognized that she had on her server, sent or received or both, 22 top secret emails. this defies what she has been saying since the scandal first broke. and this morning our own catherine herridge has revealed that intelligence sources have told catherine among the 22 top
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secret emails that the state department recognized on friday, are several that pertain to operational intelligence, a fancy word meaning, an ongoing, real time intelligence operation. putting that in a non-secure place, whether it falls into the hands of evildoers or not is a federal crime. martha: all right. you say it comes down to the fbi though in the end? >> i do say -- well, it comes down to the justice department. the fbi has committed to making a recommendation this spring on whether or not there is enough evidence to indict and prosecute and convict mrs. clinton. they will make a professional evaluation. in my view the evidence of her failure to secure national secrets is well-documented, ample for an indictment and more than enough for a conviction. then the decision has to be made by the justice department. do they want to prosecute the former senator from new york,
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former secretary of state, the wife of a former president and at this moment, leading democratic candidate for president? that will be as much a political and as a legal determination. will the rule of law supersede politicians protecting each other? that's the difficult question president obama and attorney general lynch will have to answer. martha: yeah. that is the question that is packed with ramifications. judge, thank you very much. >> you're welcome. martha: we'll see you when we get back to new york. bill: drama in that prediction. predictions, drama, turnout, let the fun begin. joe trippi, ed rollins on deck for what you need to look out for tonight. >> our country is really at a cross roads. will we elect someone there to fulfill people's angst an anger but really doesn't have a plan to resolve the great challenges that we face? i've settled for cable all my life. but directv has been number one in customer satisfaction
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martha: a lot of nerves, a lot of tension out there today. 2016 candidates kick their campaigns into overdrive to try to get the very last people to add to the list as they count down to night's caucuses across iowa. what do we expect from the white house hopefuls today? ed rollins, ronald reagan's campaign manager in '84 and huckabee when he won in iowa. joe trippi, howard dean campaign manager in 2004. both fox news contributors. good morning to you. good to see you both here today. let's get right to it. i asked you to make your predictions. these are not scientific we should tell the folks at home but they are based on experience. ed, who you think will be in first, second and third tonight. you believe donald trump will win this evening? >> no, i think cruz will win. martha: let's see it. is it up on the screen. there we go. cruz is number one, trump number two is rubio number three, right.
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>> i think it is very close election, depends who turns out. if 130,000 or more turn out i think trump wins it if it is traditional al 125,000, i think cruz wins it. cruz has better organization, most impassioned people. when you have had 60,000 commercials, 1500 events, a lot can happen. organization is very critical in the state. another key factor is carson going to collapse? carson is holding 10% in the poll. if people doesn't think he has a chance of winning which he doesn't, drop out or basically vote for somebody else, i think that helps cruz. martha: yeah. if that's true what you're saying a lot of people would really like to get that 10% from ben carson. maybe he will hold on to it. he said we'll see some surprises here. joe, let's put up the three you think will be in the top three. you sort of sidestepped the request here. you say there is just no way to call it between these three at this point?
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>> look, i think it is very tough. i agree with ed though. traditionally, if you look at santorum victory in 2012, huckabee's in 2008, you've got to believe cruz and his organization should win tonight. and so i would agree with ed under that scenario, that cruz wins. i actually think rubio could be the big surprise. if trump, if it is a sort of more normal turnout, around 130 or something like, 130,000, 140,000, and trump voters don't turn out in the kind of numbers people expect, i actually think rubio, who has been coming on could potentially slip into second place and trump could come in third in that scenario. although, look, this year, i could, you can't discount trump. he surprised us over and over again. he may do it again. may surprise me tonight. martha: yeah. here's marco rubio just a little
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while ago on the campaign trail. let's play that. >> tonight is important. it is the first time that any americans will get to answer the question of what comes next for america after barack obama. so it will be important. no one will win the nomination tonight but we feel very positive about the direction of our campaign. martha: ed, he is saying slow down, everybody. tonight is not decisive and it will not set the tone as trump supporters believe it will and could. >> rubio has been very effective candidate, i think the best debater all the way through and certainly he is the young dynamic future of our party. the critical thing if he comes in third or close to second, he is the big story of the night. and he goes on obviously to be one of favorites in new hampshire. the critical thing here is trump gets a big turnout tonight and goes on to new hampshire and he is rolling. what he is saying he is bringing his people to the polls which a lot of us don't think is quite there yet. we'll see. i've been wrong on everything i
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said on trump to date. >> if trump, if trump wins tonight, it's bad news for cruz, rubio and everybody because that means his voters are turning out in a caucus. if they will turn out in a caucus in those kind of numbers to deliver him a victory, oh, man, new hampshire and other places where it is just primary in most of those states, it, those people will be coming out. this is a big test for him tonight. martha: everybody seems to agree if we get to over 130,000 in turnout on the republican side, that will be a huge indication it would be a very strong night for donald trump. one of the other things i found really interesting this morning, such a small number. we talked to john kaufman earlier in the hour, he said we got a thousand calls of democrats and independents changing their registration to republican. when you're only talking about 122 people out there, 1,000 who
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already made that change, it also could spell some trouble for the democrats out there and what does that indicate for the general, joe? >> oh, i don't look at it, really don't think that matters that much in the general. look, there are some candidates, and we see this, really happens a lot in new hampshire by the way. those numbers are important in this primary, i mean the caucus because of who they may be voting for, i would guess a lot of them are for trump or rand paul but we'll find out. i don't really think it is going to affect the democratic side at all. i actually think that hillarycln tonight in iowa. bernie sanders deserves a lot of credit. he may eke it out but i think she is going to win it because of the organization. martha: hold on to your predictions. >> great, thank you very much. >> we'll hold on to your predictions. we'll see how everyone did and talk to you back in new york. bill: you can feel the sense of
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the moment because all the campaigns have come down to today. and why not, right? i mean it is like gameday. if you don't have butterflies today, i don't know what you're doing out there. martha: a lot of people have butterflies. invested so much emotional strength in all of this, financial and everything else. bill: back in a moment after this. [woodworker] i live in the fine details.
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>> here is up six minutes from now on "happening now." after months of speculation and polling rubber hits the road today. iowa voters make their choice in the first contest for the race to the white house. iowa caucuses are a unique institution in this country. we have fox team coverage and indepth analysis. frightening spread of the zika virus as the world health organization holds an emergency meeting. a new details on deadly amtrak
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crash. are america's trains safe? we will have it on "happening now." bill: thanks, jon. we'll see you in six minutes. back in new york and iowa. final thoughts here before we say good-bye for the moment. what's on your mind? martha: i keep going back to this idea about donald trump, the way he has run this campaign, the importance of social media and reality tv show in people's lives today and whether or not the immediacy of that experience has sort of supplanted the ground game in elections. whether you can reach people through twitter feeds and huge rallies, effectively, will be decided tonight, at least for iowans. and that experiment will play out in real time and we'll see what the result is. bill: talk to you about social media, the reason why i think this coulding significant because if you go to bernie sanders's headquarters there is sign on the wall, today, like on facebook, post a picture, at the event, share with all your friends, et cetera, et cetera. so if it's 5:00, 6:00 later today, you have this thread on social media and you know who your contacts are, can you then
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reach them effectively on their iphones, on their smartphones, on their computers and get them to act where otherwise they would not. martha: does it translate? bill: yeah. martha: into actually caucusgoers. bill: maybe we don't have complete picture tonight but we wilt in the coming days t could change the way campaigns are run. martha: there is no doubt about that. that is the conversation we'll have tomorrow. gee, i guess we're still in the old traditional model or we're in a brand new world, folks. bill: either a or b. martha: absolutely. bill: quick break here, right now. maccallum has a huge day this past weekend by the way, right? martha: i don't know what you're talking about. no idea what you're talking about. bill: in a moment. martha: we'll be right back.
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martha: tonight you and i will be the ones are the information. i'll know what people are saying in the entrance poll. bill: i'll be at micro some of the center. they will file the results by waive an app. they are using an app in 2016. good luck. we'll see you tonight, everybody. jenna: all eyes on iowa today. i'm jenna lee. jon: i'm jon scott. all the debating and polling comes down to this. turnout is the key in iowa with close races on both sides of the aisle. mike emanuel an


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