tv Face the Nation CBS January 31, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm PST
>> dickerson: welcome back to "face the nation", i am john dickerson, we are joined now by cbs news chief white house correspondent, major garrett who is on the campaign trail following republicans and cbs news congressional correspondent, nancy cordes isxd covering the democrats. they are both in des moines this morning. nancy i want to start with you, hillary clinton has been working hard in iowa for a very long time in this election, how is that going to pay off for her at the end? >> i think what it means, john, is that her campaign knows exactly who they need to get to the caucuses and how many people. they need to get to caucuses. they have been working on this not just for the past year, but really for the past eight years if you think about it, they have got all the knowledge from the clinton campaign back in 2008, the obama campaign back in 2008, which was victorious here, all of those people, all of those workers now working on her campaign here in iowa.
tand i think beyond that, when e alk about the fact that person standard has, bernie sanderses has a lot of enthusiasm at his rallies if there seems there is lessen theus yasm for hillary clinton i think in part because people have known for such a long time that she was running .. they know her about as well as any iowa ans can know about her and they made their minds about her one way or the other .. a lot of supporters told us in iowa, yeah i like hillary clinton, i will vote for her, i don't need to go to one of her events because i already know what she is about and i heard her three times the last time she ran. >> dickerson: that makes bernie sanders the new kid on the block in iowa, if that's the case and bernie sanders does well on monday, why will we have done well? >> he will have done well because there have been a surge of young voters who fulfilled their promise to get out and caucus, who beat the statistical odds and came out in larger numbers than they typically do.
he has been saying for several days, like a broken record, i will only win if turnout is larger than normal. there is a very good reason he is saying that. he is saying to his supporters look it is not enough to love my message and not enough to come to my value police you actually have to go to the caucuses and that is kind of a heavy lift, especially for young people, it is not like going to vote in a primary, you go there for two hours, you talk to your neighbors, and so it really requires a great deal of devotion and an understanding of how the system works, and so his campaign is trying to educate young voters, they have been putting out videos online, they are offering to drive them from their college towns back to their hometowns to caucus. the question is, how many of these young people will take him up on the offer? >> dickerson: all right. on the question of turnout, major garrett let's go to the republicans now, the guys at the top of the polls is donald trump, but in terms of turnout, is he going to be able to convert that enthusiasm from the huge rallies into actual caucus
percentages? >> john, the central question for the trump campaign is can you win an iowa caucus by making politics for lack of a better word with fun? there is a showmanship like quality to the trump rallies, the crowds form long before the event, people wait patiently, these are people who are not typically involved in politics, he come to see trump and laugh at all of his jokes and after yard the line is actually rap rouse and clinton in, i saw a huge biceps with a bandana on the head and got an autograph from trump and walked away almost in tears, that's the kind of reaction that trump elicits, so that is all great for trump and the theatrical side of politics but this is a ground game operation in iowa, i have net people who tell me they are either precinct captains or making phone calls for trump but they acknowledge they have never done it before, they haven't made as many phone calls as the campaign would like, so the bottom line question is, does all of this energy translate to caucus attendance? the trump people believe in the end it will, and it will come not just from republicans, but
from some democrats who have been drawing the trump message. >> dickerson: what about ted cruz, then he has been in neck and neck race with trump. tell competent about his organization. >> all right. so trump is fun. ted cruz, fundamentals what do i mean by fundamentals? identifying and i mean really identifying, at the granular level, tea party enthusiasts, social conservatives, the evangelicals, who are they? the most reliable voters in iowa's republican caucuses over history. the cruz campaign has spent months identifying these voters, sending them not. >one or two mailers but sometimes three or four in the same day, all about issues they care about. cruz events are much quieter, there is much greater conversation about the crisis of conservativism and how you need someone who is a true believer, who has walked with you, who has all the, who has all the convictions you share because that is what they believe will get the most reliable voters to all of the caucus sites all around the state, 99 counties more than 1,600 precincts and they believe by taking care of
mike huckabee, rick santorum forum and rand paul, all competitors for these voters, they are well positioned to pull a surprise over trump come monday night. >> dickerson: nancy among the democrats you have been out there a while following them, give us a little flavor for what is different about hillary clinton event and a bernie sanders event. >> it is interesting, john, iowa has always been a retail politics place as you know, voters want to get to know their candidates, they want to shake their hand, look them in the eye, talk to them. bernie sanders is not a retail kind of guy. he gets up there, he gives his speeches. the audience is moved, they love listening to him, he is clearly very passionate, they find him very authentic, but then he exits the stage left. he is not the type to stick around and glad hand, and take a selfie, but they don't really seem to mind, in fact, i have been at some of his rallies where they literally sort of part and allow him to walk past and exit, and because they though that, you know, he is
there to sort of talk about these issues, they have been waiting to hear about the, it for a long time but he is not really, you know, one on one type of guy. hillary clinton, the exact opposite. her events may be smaller, they may be a little less raucous, but she six around for sometimes half an hour, 45 minutes, on the rope line, shaking hands, talking to people about their problems, offering to take selfies with them and asking them point blank, i really need you to come out and caucus. and that is an area where she seems to be far more comfortable and yet even though they have these very, very different styles, they are neck and he can in the polls. >> dickerson: major, finally to you, the third place finish may matter a lot in iowa. it looks like rubio is going to finish there? >> that's what it looks like and the rubio camp is very good about that and sort of an interesting question, when does third place equal first? well when with the first place finisher is third place and represents either mainstream republicans or so-called
establishment republicans. that's where rubio wants to land. the most recent poll has him 15 percent, consistent with internal rubio campaign data and believe they can bet to 17, 18 percent here, the crowds in the closing days have been getting larger and ladies and gentlemen of thlarger a lotof ed for rubio's campaign it is all about the distance between ever else vying to be that establishment or mainstream alternative, a lot of distance between chris christie, john kay situate, kasich jeb bush here because they believe that will translate to momentum into new hampshire. >> he hopes to he in nernl south carolina as the alternative to ted cruz or donald cruz. >> dickerson: nancy cordes and major garrett, out on the campaign trail, thanks to both of you. >> you're welcome. >> dickerson: we will be right back with our politics panel. >> ah, perfect. valet parking. evening, sir. hello! here's the keys.
test. >> dickerson: and we are back panel. joining us today, "wall street journal" columnist, kim strassel, ben domenech is publisher of the federalist, easy sez the editor of vo g.com and ed o'keefe covers politics for the "washington post". >> finally voting is going to happen. >> finally. >> dickerson: what are we going to learn even? >> maybe the million dollars question or the billion dollar question because it is donald trufer is what marriage was talking about, does he have an operation out there? are the people who are lining up for five hours to get tickets, are they devoted celeb watchers or are they devoted caucus goardz? and if he, it is particularly interesting because we had numbers out this week where people had they, has the campaign contacted you and who.
>> they say they have been contacted by the cruz campaign, even by the bush campaign, by the rubio campaign, not so many people said that trump had reached out to them. >> dickerson: they are all reaching out to him, though. >> yes, they are. >> dickerson: ezra, what do you make, what are you looking for out of iowa? >> i am actually watching rubio, we know it is going to be trump or cruz running through what people are calling the conservative lane, i think we are hot exactly sure what is going to happen with the more establishment republicans, i think for a long time the conventional wisdom has been some point rubio will break out of the pack so now there is this feeling he is surge ago little by at the end in iowa, as i said before, maybe gets to 17, 18 percent, if you get a very strong third in iowa and goes into new hampshire you could begin to see the establishment coalesce around here, a big amount of money to his campaign and republicans who are afraid of cruz or trump go to him if not you will have the same dynamic you have had for some time now where you have rubio, christie, bush and kasich and potentially a couple of others all fighting for same lane in
the primary and no real ability for the establishment to unite. >> but rubio's problem is that donald trump actually has the most support among moderate and mainstream republicans, they support, this is actually comin3 from the conservative wing of the party, it is coming mohr from the mainstream which is more of a challenge from him, i think the lesson we are going to learn ore the, over the course of the next couple of weeks, not just iowa, is donald trump's historical analog like pat buchanan who won four of the first six contests in 1 1996 or more like the 19th century and the bourbon democrats who backed the gold standard and free trade and riding with kim at the "wall street journal" today and then saw william jennings brian come along and take over the party is with a speech, which i think will make the establishment and those in the mainstream and the elites of the party very afraid. >> dickerson: because william james had a terrible presidential success rate. go ahead. >> well, the other thing though here too is you talk to any of the candidates out there, the other cane other than donald trump, they are eager for a
one-on-one march with donald trump. >> right. i mean,, no they really do think he is beatable. and i think this goes to ben's point is that he seems to have a feeling, honest support he is getting moderate republicans but there is a limit to the number he gets. >> you have been spending a lot of time with the nontrump and cruz candidates in new hampshire. slowly, lonely and quiet. talk about that a little bit, because they need to find their moment or it may pass them. >> that's why none of them will be, with the exception of rubio will be in iowa tomorrow night. kasich has been in new hampshire all weekend, chris christie and jeb bush get to new hampshire tomorrow, those three guys certainly see new hampshire really as their last stand, bush to some extent has operations in the other states and probably has the money to keep going, but the other two certainly, theyinf they cannot finish well in new hampshire they are done and go home, i think back to ezra's point if rubio has a good night in iowa on monday i think the clamoring for consolidation, for getting out, foretelling the jeb bush super pac quit hitting
rubio and focus more on consolidating between one or two of these guys will really step uh up and we have seen a lot of that in the last few queens and calls for the jeb bush pack to back off and their argue i argument is working because it is keeping him down in iowa and new hampshire, as jeb bush starts to creep up with about ten days to go. >> so what do you make of, ann mentioned of those voters who think the system is rigged, donald trump, the wealthiest person running is getting the most of that vote on the republican side, why do you think that? >> i think it is general confinely court appeal, if you watch trump's counter rally as i did, he had this great line in the middle of it, and you can go back and look at the transcript and find it, he says, i am really greedy, i am a really greedy person, i have been greedy all my life and now i want greedy on behalf of america. and there is something the perfect in encapsulation of the a appeal because if you think what is going on, the economy has become unfair, if you are struggling for, if you are economically struggling and rich
guys like trump are kind of screwing you over and have been for some time now, and now here comes one of those rich guys with all of those powers and all of that capacity to rig the economy in their favor and he is saying he will rig it in your favor, i think, kind of it is an indictment of a belief of what is going in the economy right now, they think what they need is someone to rig it in their favor, but i think it is very, very significant as part of his appeal and it is an appeal he understands about himself, which is one reason he is such a good company. >> dickerson: having been there myself i was in the rafters and what is stunning is talking to veterans who at the event beforehand i said superintendent he taking advantage of you guys? and they all do, they take advantage of veterans but he is putting money behind it and the other guys only ask them to spend money in washington and on their behalf to help the v.a. hospitals and what not and drag their feet and don't do it, this guy is going to raise money and if you look, 6 million he says raised and from his friends in new york and las vegas that night but 22 organizations
across the country who are going to get this money, apparently, they are very small, they are in iowa and in massachusetts, all over, and i mean he can say to them i took advantage of my power, doled out the money and help you. >> this courts to his appeal in she a trader to his class which really is, you know, something we have seen in politics before and enormously powerful. >> a bumper sticker. >> it is donald trump. exactly and in that -- that makes hillary very pacific and very powerful but also a sign of a situation where the republican party has aid to address the fact that they are out of step with significant portion of their -- of the voting electorate when coat top the issues of immigration and foreign policy and when it comes to these issues, to these core sort of the economy is rigged in a way that does not benefit us, and now in the end comes with promises to rig it in your favor and a message that is connecting with the voters. >> what is your feeling about ted cruz? if he doesn't win iowa is that a fatal blow for him? where is his place in this? >> i think the stakes for both donald trump and ted cruz are incredibly high because they have staked so much on iowa, and
ted cruz, in particular, his entire message has been, geared toward saying i am the most conservative person in the race and he tailored it very specifically to that the grass roots activists there and the tea parties and the evangelicals, so if you can't win iowa where do you win? you know, and that is going to be the big blow to him, if he doesn't come out on top going into new hampshire and no one wants to go into new hampshire with a negative momentum, you know,. >> there is a point though i think it is an interesting question about trump, you are asking him a -- his entire campaign is based on this idea he is a winner, he brags about it on the stump, everything is about his high poll numbers, and something that really fascinating to watch him if he loses an early primary like iowa does it collapse on himself, the fact he is mann festing not a winner and beat by ted cruz how much does that hurt the fundamentals of his appeal and also how does he react to that? because you can act very badly to a loss. >> he does not like to lose. >> no. it would make the loss a lot more likely.
>> that may be a packet too hard to get around. >> ben, quickly on the fight on immigration between cruz and rubio on the debate and afterwards does that illuminate anything about immigration in the republican party or just two guys fighting? >> i think it is just two guys fighting and i am not sure really either of them got hurt that much or benefited that much from their responses to those questions in the debate. i think the problem that has really dogged marco rubio throughout this race is that the last thing that republican voters know about him is that they supervisor forked the gang of eight bill and i think that is something that is fundamental and sort of easy to explain in a way that cruz's flip flop on in sort of amendment issue is not as easy to explain, the question is whether that is still as big of a drag rubio can't get momentum coming out of iowa in southern states and sort of in future cop tests that's something we will find out. >> very quick, it is a long-term problem, to have two cuban republican americans continue to fight about immigration, hispanics are listening, democrats are listening, if one of them emerges it will be a huge problem for them. >> and w we hope you will all be
sanders,. >> and we are back with our panel. i will start with you on the democrat side. some people who supported hillary clinton said they really wanted her to have a challenge in the primary. she got one. where do things stand in iowa and what do you look for there? >> what is fascinating in iowa there is a replay in a way a in an argument that happened in 2008 too that hillary clinton is much more of a political realist than domestic people who run for president, barack obama that promised hope and change and promised there was a way too change and trance form the political system, such to be friendly to progressive priorities, he won with that argument, and there was a period of time in the interim when liberals with so disappointed by obama's frustrations with republicans that people thought clinton's argument this is going to be a fight, that democrats needed a fighter, there would be trench warfare, had gotten more traction along liberals and what sanders is showing this is not true he comes in the argument with a political evolution, a way to mobilize the working
class and mobilize the progressive majority and sweep the old ways out of the way in american politics and i think there are things clinton is figuring out how to sell a more realistic but also more depressing vision of american politics, how do you respond to that by saying, tha that is not realistic but i don't have an answer that will make you happy either. >> right, right. >> one of the most interesting things that happened over the course of the past couple of years is it became okay to be a democratic socialist in america. in the sense that this was not something -- bernie sanders when he was in the house of representatives was someone on the extreme and under, understood as being on the extreme yet something changed in america and it changed in large part because of the rise of the young group of americans who have no association, no memory of the cold war, they do not associate socialism with communism or the soviet union or anything of that nature, there is an interesting poll that came out a few months ago that asked under 30-year olds who they would be okay with voting for, 69 percent of people under 30 there is gallup said they would be okay voting for a socialist for the presidency, compared to
75 percent who said they would be okay voting for an evangelical christian that's a dramatic shift compared to previous generations and that's the kind of support bernie is tapping into. >> if hillary clinton wins in iowa and new hampshire does that mean the democrats are making a sensible choice about what it takes to govern and being practical? >> they are probably maybe ago pragmatic choice about a nominee that would have. >> have a better chance of beating a republican, i think everyone probably agrees with this, that there is a lot of enthusiasm for bernie standards and when you have some of these head to head matchups with republicans .. he does do fairly well against some of them, but i think maybe when his positions are better known in the country, the, is the country really ready to go there? possibly not and that is probably on the minds of a lot of democrats who are going out to vote. >> and what do you think -- let's play it through some scenarios here, one, iowa and new hampshire have a lot more liberals than my of the other contests so let's imagine bernie sanders rides this wave of enthusiasm and wins in those two places, how much damage does that do to hillary clinton? >> well he certainly has
momentum, in fact he probably raised a little more money in south carolina and some of those states looking more seriously at standarders of course he has all, sanders, he has more money to deploy my people in iowa and those places, but the coalitions or the demographics of those other states change dra dramatically we talked about in before that iowa, new hampshire and vermont are the most liberal states of the country, everywhere else is not nearly as liberal and white a lot of those 30-year olds will live in these other places, a lot of democrats who are much more pragmatic and understand having sanders as the nominee would not work and probably will swing back toward clinton but prolong the race, that's why you saw this conversation about debates all the way into may, i mean the fact they are even talking about that suggests if he does pull off wins in both early states, this could go on for quite a while. >> it is worth noting i think that one thing hillary clinton's team has done they did not do in 08 they always have been prepared even with not that much evident opposition for a very long race. >> they felt they lost the 08 race because they did not
prepare for a delegate fight in smaller caucus states and they just did not have a strategy that was ready for it to go through june and they do this time. >> that's right. her other problem though here and we haven't talked about it is not just the enthusiasm problem, but the e-mail problem. >> yes. >> and the trust thing. >> i mean, look, bernie sanders is going into iowa and the closing argument is let's make the world a better place. and hillary clinton is going into iowa and her closing argument is, well, we are pretty confident there may not be an indictment. i mean, that is just not a great place to be. so she has got this and it plays into the trust question, and that does resonate in particular with a lot of these younger people that you are talking to as well. >> it also is the other side of the coin when it comes to the economic game being rigged. hillary clinton is not kind of person who has the message of saying, if you believe the economy is rigged against you, if you are a disaffected voter if you feel like you are frustrated with the situation, with bailouts, with wall street, with everything of that nature she is not someone who is going to upset the apple cart, both trump and sanders tap into that
out there in the country that feels they are ignored by both parties and they feel that way frankly because they have. >> if hillary clinton does wellable there doesn't seem there is the kind of animus, remember the clinton and bmg voters really didn't like each other for a period of time in 2008, it doesn't feel like that at all in terms of the sanders voters and the clinton voters, that's the first question, the second is what does she do if she does do well? she might have a period of time where things are going well for her while the republicans are still fighting things out. >> i think, one, there is not going to be deep divisions in the better and it is worth saying in, even in twowf eight while there was a lot of talk of pumas at the elections and these big splits there didn't end up being that, they want a nominate, they are concentrating on the democrats and republicans mind in terpts of what they do on a very long period, where all of the attention is going to a republican campaign that is going for month after month they will raise a lot of money and do a lot of organizing but that may not be a good period for clinton because it is a period in which she gets covered as a president
sanders,. >> dickerson: that's it for us today. be sure to tune in tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. eastern to our digital network cbsn for our live coverage of the results from iowa. until next week, for "face the nation", i am john dickerson. >> captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org
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