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tv   Charlie Rose  PBS  February 19, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm PST

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>> rose: welcome we begin win politics and talk to john dickerson about the race in nevada and carolina. >> trump is so ahead of everyone that cruz and rubio are near each other or the second place. there's a couple different scenarios. if cruz comes in third behind rubio it's bad news for ted cruz. 65% of the voters are self-identified evangelicals. it's a conservative vote state so it's a place said cruz is expected to do well. >> rose: and continue win jennifer jason leigh for her performance in quentin
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tarantino's "the hateful eight." >> once you've seen it you can watch it again and follow all these different people now you know a secret about them. everyone has so many secrets in this and it's fun for that reason. >> rose: and we conclude this evening with richard engel who's book is called "and then all hell broke loose." two decades in the middle east. >> it's like gretzky. you can't look at the puck you have to expect where the puck is go to go and the next puck of history will be in the east so i moved out there and young journalism students i say to be a great journalist think about 20 years from now. >> rose: john >> rose: funding for "charlie rose" has been provided by:
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>> rose: additional funding provided by: >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: we begin with politics and the 2016 election. presidential primaries in south carolina and nevada are taking place this weekend and next week. senator marco rubio secured the endorsement on wednesday. >> i want to bring a conscience back to our government. if we elect marco rubio every
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day will be a great day in america. >> rose: donald trump continues to hold a commanding lead in that those states and the pope weighed in is that he's a person who only thinks of building walls wherever they may be and not building bridges is not christian. trump responded in a rally in north carolina. >> for a religious leader to question a person's faith is not right and i will not allow christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened unlike what is happening now with our current president. >> rose: then from cbs in washington is john dickerson and the host of "face the nation" and has moderated several political debates in this political season and it's the political season i want to talk about first. have you covered politics for a while. you were born into politics. your mother was a political
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correspond. have you ever seen anything like this year? >> no, especially on the republican side. so many candidates and i think donald trump and scott walker. we know about donald trump. he's broken lots of political rules and seems to find new ones to break and yet survives them but also i think scott walker's a part of the story. here's a governor re-elected who took on the unions and hero in his own party, came from a purple state and walked the walk and had good fund-raising around everything going for him and was one of the first to get out. there's many ways in which this has been a year unpredictable. >> rose: how do you explain? simply there's a yearning for change, for something different, for some sense of washington and our government has not been part of solution they've been part of the problem? >> that's right. it's a number of things. washington has not been a part
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of the solution. it's been the problem. the elite in both parties have served up dish after dish that has been unsatisfying. the way in which politicians talk is unsatisfying and empty and doesn't speak to people's real needs and so you had a politician come along in donald trump who could say anything and because of the way he said it it sounded new and fresh and real and i think also he is has been able to portray himself and he has a natural instinct for putting himself on the side of people who are so upset and disaffected. other politicians talk about the disaffected voters and try to say i understand your anger. trump embodies it so when he speaks and says something everybody gets a little exercised about from his corner what he's hearing is amen,
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brother. >> rose: it's often even or the he talks about "i" a lot he talks about "we" a lot to identify with them. >> the voters that like him are fine with vanity and all the rest of it if it is on their behalf. so they don't mind him being a bit of a bragger because they feel he's bragging on their behalf. >> rose: it brings know today's controversy and the pope. is there a sense in the political community you don't want the pope criticizing you. >> well, in republican politics this pope is not terribly popular though it was john boehner's last act to sit and having invited the pope to be with him and it was very moving for john boehner but among republicans he's not a popular pope and on this issue he's
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saying the trump view on immigration which is to put up a wall which is a very popular view among republican voters and very popular among trump voters is the pope is butting his nose in where he shouldn't is the view among republican voters. trump is probably on okay ground. he said no leader should ever question the religious faith of another which is a new rule for him since last week he spent part of it questioning whether ted cruz was a question and also questioned president obama's faith so he doesn't abide by his rules sometimes. >> rose: he's changed and there's a fight in there with ted cruz objecting to what he said on television he pro choice and donald trump is threatening so sue him because they're old
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views not new views. >> this is an interesting tactical fight. on one hand you can see trump tying ted cruz down in a bunch of distracting fights and back and forth and sort of tit for tat which is messy if your ted cruz. on the other hand if people can get past it it's donald trump in his own words how he's very prochoice. the question in the end is does trump by getting into a fight benefit or get through. as far as the polls are concerned it seems trump is winning this one. >> rose: trump versus cruz. everybody has been looking to south carolina and asking questions whether jeb bush will survive and will he continue or will he make some progress here.
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then the endorsement by the governor of south carolina. >> the polls show trump is so far ahead of everyone cruz and rubio are near each other for the second place. if cruz comes in third behind rubio or bush or the other there's a very conservative voting state so this is a place where ted cruz would have been expected to do well. he's been in constant combat with trump for a month and he's not a dumb guy. ted cruz is smart and knows how to make an argument. if over the course of a month his arguments could not penetrate into the trump lead that's not great for ted cruz because it will be hard to
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confect a new argument that's powerful and trump doesn't seem to be falling. his voters are particularly resilient. not only do they pick him earlier but the more attacks that come to trump the stronger their faith in him is. >> rose: what is marco rubio's weakness? >> he's not had to make a decision and that's the argument chris christie is making and the argument they're making. there's a tight argument about the when you stack experience on itself the more crisis situations you're in the easier it is to handle them and that's a good argument because you'll face a lot of crises day by day and it doesn't seem to be hurting rubio that much. >> rose: starting with the
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president. is there any conversation within political circles today about the president's decision not to go to the funeral? >> there's some curiosity about it. he's going to the visitation but not the funeral. there's head-scratching why he didn't just go to the funeral. that's all i heard so far. >> rose: moving to the democrats and first in south carolina and then nevada. >> hillary clinton is up in some polls by almost 30 points. south carolina was supposed to be a firewall for her and it looks like it will serve that purpose. but it's not that she does well in the african american community by happenstance. she's been working south carolina hard for months. long before bernie sanders was a
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real threat and she's been working it in a smart way and working with the congressman there and going to rural areas and big cities. they've been working the state hard. i remember being there more than half a year ago and surprised at how hard they were working it. the question for hillary clinton and it's true when we get to talking about nevada where the expectations line up. it's always a question. it's long been a question in politics. bill clinton when he came in second in new hampshire was a big deal because of where expectations were. same in '72. it's on and on and how you do through expectations. if expectations are she'll crush sanders in south carolina what happens when she actually does do that? does she get a story that says, well, everybody's expecting that or do people say well, this is the beginning of a series of victories for hillary clinton because not every state is like
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iowa and new hampshire. it will be one of the things to watch when she does well in south carolina. >> rose: and nevada? >> nevada she was supposed to have done well. nevada had a 65% minority part participation in the caucus there and hillary clinton had a sense that this is a state she should have done well maybe in a tougher position now but polling there is very difficult and so even though there's a poll that has the two candidates basically even everybody would warn you that it's hard to really know what's going to happen in the nevada caucus but if she does not do well it's both bad for hillary clinton expected to do well, again the expectations playing a role here and also
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potentially tell us about bernie sanders' ability to reach outside of that white vote he's done well in and produce votes in a non-white constituency which is a hurdle for him if he's to do better in the future states. >> rose: as always i thank you my friend. i'm indebted to you. thank you for taking time to join us here. >> a pleasure as always. >> rose: back in a moment. stay with us. >> jennifer jason leigh is here and start in fast times at ridgemont high and last exit to brooklyn and what other actors consider audacious leaps to the human realms of human depravity or typical roles. her role as a murderous daisy has earned her her first oscar
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nomination and a nomination for an mated feature film. welcome and congratulations. >> thank you. >> rose: when you saw the crypt of quentin did you say oh, wow, i can do something with this. >> his writing is phenomenal. it's so much fun to read and i just was happy to have the opportunity to read and it's a great role. >> rose: what makes it a great role. >> she has a lot of secrets and mystery and grit and there's so much to play. >> rose: character. >> so much. she's the devil.
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she's this muderous whore in a way but in another way -- of course i was playing her but i liked her. i like her because she's a hateful eight but a lot of women really like her. >> rose: is it because she's all that tough and mean-spirited and has a combative quality. >> yeah, she has a wicked sense of humor and smart. she's fierce. she's dangerous. >> rose: tell me who she is for people who have not yet seen the film. >> she's got one of the best names ever and she's a prisoner. she's being hanged by the hang man because he doesn't bring his bounties in dead he brings them
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in alive. >> rose: brilliantly played by kirk douglas. >> i was handcuffed to the hand for six months and i missing handcuffed to him every day. i'll never be the same. >> rose: what's this mean for you though? because you've been nominated are people seeing you in different roles or an extension of the actress everybody knew you were? >> that's a lovely question. i don't know. for me i can only speak for myself because i don't know what it means in terms of the outside world. i think it's hugely significant for me. it's incredible to have such a great role and when you get a
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role in a tarantino film you don't want to let him down. you just pray you don't let him down. >> rose: because he's put so much into it and given you -- >> the role of a life time because he loves actors so much because he loves his entire crew. he makes it such a joy to go to work every day and he believes in you. >> rose: and he communicates all that. >> yeah, so you want to give him everything he dreamed of. >> rose: that's rare. >> yeah. i worked with a lot of wonderful directors so i'm fortunate in that way but even the most wonderful directors are in video village which means it's like another universe with the screen. quentin's right on -- there is no video village on a quentin tarantino movie.
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he's there with you and i was reading with him not a casting director. >> rose: you told the guardian a lot of times this town or business only looks at your last three project quentin is the exception and looks at your whole body of works and asked me about moments as though it was yet and he's that thorough and when he looks at you he doesn't see just what you do the last two years or doesn't think you were that person in whatever, 1985. >> it's true. >> rose: he knew what you could do. >> he knew more what i could do than i knew and more about my career than i knew. >> rose: how did you therefore prepare not to let him down and let your fell yo -- fellow actors down to make sure you brought to bear everything you
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had. >> he had two rules no cell phones and know your lines backwards and forwards. excellent rule. you start talking to everyone around you and for lack of a better word you become a family and the focus is on what you're making. he wanted us to find daisy organically and gave me the task to play the guitar which i never played on my life and to play it live and score a theme and all in one take.5a i had never played guitar and it's all picking up both hands. so i -- it put me in daisy's head. i don't know how much of a gift he knew he was giving me by
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putting me in her head. i was scared i could do it. daisy didn't know how long she was going to survive and daisy doesn't want anybody to know she's vulnerable or afraid. it put me in such a sincere way i never had to reach for daisy suddenly she was. i knew she was nothing like me. like when i look at the movie and quentin and i have talked about this -- >> rose: you don't see yourself? >> no, i don't at all but i really enjoyed that. >> rose: look at the scene. this is number one where it's played by jackson and explaining to jennifer jason leigh the difference between kurt russell's character and him because they're both bounty hunters. >> take know red rock. you going to wait around? >> you know i am.
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i want to hear his neck snap with my own two years. >> that's why they call him the hang man. when it says dead or alive the rest of us shoot you and bring you in dead over a saddle but when the hang man catches you ain't got no bullet in the back. when the hang man catches you, you hang. >> take a high dive in a low well. >> rose: whose idea was it? >> the first day of shooting that's what i looked like and i took a photoakh on my phone and sent it to my mom and i said this is as good as it's going to get. this is the beauty shot.
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>> rose: there is also this. you imbued her with the idea she's going get out of this. >> yes. that's the thing. she knows she's going to survive. she's going to figure it out. she will survive. >> rose: and she'sd of smart characters. >> yes. >> rose: but she's smarter? >> she's smarter. >> rose: and figure out in the end. >> yes. >> rose: and the audience never knows. >> no. >> rose: that's the great thing about that film. you don't know in the end how it's going come out. >> what's fun about the movie is you know more than you thought and it again and follow the different people now you know a secret about them. everyone has so many secrets in this and it's fun for that reason. >> rose: tell me about the film which i don't know about it because i've not seen it. what is that?
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>> it's a piece charlie kaufman wrote. >> rose: i love charlie kaufman. he sat here at this table. he directed it and wrote it? >> yes. he co-directed it a stop-motion animated movie so it's done with puppets and we did it originally at ucla at royce hall in two nights and the characters are so beautiful and it's very funny but it's also very moving and sad and eight years later he said we are doing it in a stop-animation movie and we did it in three days it was< and a lovely focus and two years later it came out and during the
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two+w(u shot two seconds a day. it's painstaking work. every time a puppet blinks or does this someone has to go in and move the puppet. two seconds was a good day. there's a sex scene in the film that's incredibly explicit and awkward and real and that took six months to shoot. >> rose: who's lisa? >> she's a very short of average girl. sweet girl. she's got a bit of a scar on her face so she's self-conscious. she's awkward and falls in love and someone falls in love with her and she's never had that kind of attention in her life this is michael stone's
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character meeting her. >> do you want to come in? >> um, i was just looking for someone. i think i've got the wrong -- >> who's there? >> mr. stone. michael stone. >> really? oh, my god. hello. do i look awful. i was just taking my makeup off. oh, my god. don't look at me. >> no, you look lovely. >> i can't believe you're in our room. we came from akron just to hear you speak. oh, my god, please don't look at me. >> i'm certainly very flattered. >> you can look at me. >> rose: is this the best of times for you? >> i think it's certainly it's one of the best of times for me. it's an extraordinary time for me.
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it's a significant time in many ways. >> rose: yours is a profession in which there's not a lot of places were you can work. there's so many actresses unemployed. >> how many don't get to work. that is the truth. i feel extraordinarily lucky. >> rose: athletes and doing what i do daily, television. there's challenges to be good every day. your challenge is first of all a place to be good. and good people to work with. >> yeah, well just even to keep working is -- but it's something as an actor you're not in control of. kurt said if you ever taught a class there should be one on what to do with the time when you're not working. >> rose: what do you do with the time when you're not working? >> that's quite a lot actually.
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i spent a lot of time with my son and things at his school and things like that. >> rose: do you audition? >> it depends on the role. sometimes i do and -- >> rose: did quentin want you to audition. >> he did. >> rose: and what was he looking for did he tell you? >> i'm not sure he knew what he was looking for. he was just waiting to see it i think or to see the promise of it. >> rose: did you know after the first reading? >> a little bit. you'd be better off asking him that but we went out to dinner shortly after that and just talked about the shoot and the role and he said he was feeling good about casting me and it wasn't a done deal but -- >> rose: not as much as he feels now. >> thank you. >> rose: great to have you.
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one extraordinary performance as you know. >> thank you. >> rose: back in a moment. stay with us. >> rose: richard yeng gel is here chief correspondent of nbc news and two peabody awards and his book "then all hell broke loose" and chronicled his experience in lebbon and other conflict zones and it's laced with historical con testext. welcome. >> it's always an honor to be at the table. if the wood could only speak. >> rose: what do you want to tell us in the book? it's personal but also laced with history. >> it's not a book ofí% journalisticr
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wearing jackets and running around dangerous places. there's some of that but that's not the point. there's a thesis and framework embedded in the book and if people read it i'd love it if they walked a way of information the middle east and encapsulating the last 20 years through my eyes and the framework would be when i first arrived in the middle east it was 199 6. i just graduated from college from stanford. >> rose: and you went back for to give a commencement speech. >> it was an incredible privilege. so i left the campus not really knowing how i was going to do it but knew i wanted to become a foreign correspondent and i thought it was going to be a great adventure and romantic fun
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journey along the way and i moved to cairo. >> rose: it's been all that. >> and more and it's not just as i thought sitting with my martini overlooking my balcony with my typewriter writing the next tale of intrigue. instead i decided i'd go to the middle east and make my way that part of the world. i thought it would be the next story like gretzky can't be where the puck is but where the puck will be. so i moved out there and young journalism students i always say you want to be a great journalist think about 20 years from now where are you going to be today and where are you going to be well positioned to know that storyfké but >> rose: you're telling them to be where the next great stories and do you want to be covering that.
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and talking about tools you need. >> you need to prepare and i knew about the middle east back to the story at hand. i moved to the middle east and moved to cairo in a poor neighborhood and integrating myself and learning the language and culture and there was a system in place the system of the big men. they were in that case were saddam hussein gaddafi in libya. all the royal families. a system had been locked in place with big men and these systems ran the governments, ran the societies and they were deeply flawed. and they were corrupt. people under educate and there was dooeep-rooted theories and
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was under the surface but contained by the regimes. >> rose: they said to the populous we'll take care of the politics. >> you surrender your rights to complain and we'll take care of you. they were paternalist in nature and incentivized the people which i think the people eventually grew to recent. the imagine i return to is the row houses. you think of row houses along any coastline and they're beautiful to look at and maybe people come to take pictures of them but they are rotting on the inside but they contain the rot which is good so they don't affect the other houses but not -- >> rose: no democratic challenge. >> you have a system in the middle east of the row houses. >> rose: where are we in time? >> from 1967 which i think was
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the last time the map of the middle east was really torn up until 2003 that's when i arrived. and the houses you can put your finger through the wall is how fragile they were and under the bush administration in 2003 he slammed america's shoulder into the wall of one of the houses, iraq and unleashed a lot of of the demons within. she conflict the arab/persian conflict and then through eight years of direct military action we broke that status quo and then soon to be of eight years in inconsistent action by this administration we destroyed it further i mean with the supporting the uprising in egypt
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and then not supporting it in bahrain and then supporting it in libya and a month later not supporting it in syria and en benghazi and then not supporting it. egypt yes, bahrain yes, libya yes, syria no. >> rose: we would have never supported it in saudi arabia ? >> exactly like in bahrain. so the question is you have to look at these two administrations. the actions and inactions or actions and inconsistent action and having destroyed that previous status quo and to go back to the analogy of the row houses and knocking them down and now we're dealing with the termites and rot and mold. >> rose: and the arab spring is what? >> it's become chaos. >> rose: libya is now ruled by
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tribes. >> libya is a failed state and egypt where i think this goes to continue the model of status quo, destruction, chaos. out of the chaos i think emerging a new period of strong men and egypt is leading in the charge. i think there'll be more attempts in libya and in syria and iraq. >> rose: it's amilitary man. >> it could come from the military. >> rose: he's been probably tougher on dissent than mubarak. >> i think the people in the regions a lot of them will embrace the strongmen i think are coming because if you think in aleppo or damascus there's no food and there's a checkpoint from a militant wearing a ski
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mask in front of your house and the kids aren't going to school for years and there's no power and gas and worse and worse you'll reach out to someone who offers a solution. the dictators offer an easy solution. >> rose: you being a foreign correspondent what are the critical qualities of a foreign correspondent and beyond endurance and beyond a capacity to go days and days without much sleep. it is also an element of courage but what else? >> i think you have to really believe in it. you learn the language. this is what i want to do. this is who i am. it's not a job. it is my life. that's what i want to do. some people if you want to drive cars and decide to be a race car or soldier or cop.
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whatever it is you want to be an actor or you talk to all these people, if you decide with all your heart and soul that's what you want then the rest falls into place and what i decided what i want to do with my piece of time on this world is look at society's in transition. >> rose: there's stories of you in terms of finding yourself at risk. when you realize you were in trouble you say to yourself, oh, my god. but this is not to be unexpected because i know this was part of the risk when i went down this road. >> when i was kidnap and captured and literally going down the road and thought this is it? >> rose: five days were you held? >> yes. you don't immediately think well, this is it, too bad. you say okay, you have to deal with it but the mind goes into
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the most hyper active state you can imagine. it's hard to control your thoughts because you're thinking about every tiny detail at that moment when i was driving down the road and i was in the backseat of a car and gunman came and blocked off the roads and there was a truck parked by the side of the road and all these guys in ski masks and weapon and two men armed standing by the side of the doors of the truck like an open mouth waiting to swallow all of us and i'm thinking that's where i'm going. i'm going to be thrown in the back of the truck and who knows where we're going. everything slows down and you think there's two of them there. that door's open, how high is it if i needed to jump. what's on my left. i probably can't run in that direction because i'll get shot. i can't just sit here, look, they're grabbing the guy in front and loading him. am i going to be next. you're going constantly in
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seconds of a million tiny calculations can i get my seat belt off in time, run to the corner do you think i can make it. and in the key thing if you're in dangerous situations is learning to control your thoughts otherwise your mind hyper ventilates. >> rose: that usually comes from training but you usually have to do it. in the military that comes with training. >> it comes with training and i did do a training course in hostile environments and a trick they tell you is to think about something. if you're captive for a long period. sometimes hostages can be held for years and years so if you're locked in a small room and chained to a radiator how do you stay sane so you think of something procedural.
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>> rose: build houses in your mind. >> i don't build houses or engines i like to cook so i would cook in my mind all these great meals. something. when you're not thinking about practical things something to get your mind into a better place. >> rose: syria today. what's going to happen? we now see because of russian assistanc assistance assad is in a stronger position and they'll probably get aleppo. >> probably. they're getting it. they're getting it now. >> rose: what does that mean? a stronger assad and a government in control. a whole range of people fighting each other some with common calls. >> i don't see yet a clear way out of the syria conflict because -- >> rose: a clear way out means how it ends? >> here's one possibility how it ends. assad wins. russia, iran, hezbollah help
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assad to the point he wins. that's one possibility. >> rose: and isis destroyed? >> isis would be destroyed in that situation and the syrian government reasserts it's authority and the rebels are destroyed. the u.s. is not supporting that program. the arab states aren't supporting the program and turkey isn't supporting that program. the other possibility where the kurds take over the north and the kurds drive out isis effectively. that's the u.s.'s main strategy though the u.s. -- >> rose: kurds will be their troops on the ground. >> with a token arab participation but turkey doesn't want that and activity fighting against that so that's not happening. another possibility the arab states want is a sunni coalition. the u.s. doesn't seem it want to
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have that and certainly russia doesn't want that so there's no international consensus on how this is supposed to end. who is supposed to win. it is still a proxy war where everyone has the most favorite client and as long as that continues it's going to continue to be very bloody. it's getting worse and worse. >> rose: the conflict between shia and sunni. >> and lack of law and order. a friend of mine in baghdad told me for the first time in his life he bought a gun. not the first time in his life but in many years. >> rose: why? in fear of who? >> everyone. fear of militia coming to his house and a breakdown of law and order and bodies being found in the streets. >> rose: these are militias doing that? >> yes, basically and there's
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lots of gangs. >> rose: what role is iran playing in all that? >> iran want to make sure the u.s. doesn't come back to iraq and re-establish it's presence. the u.s. left iraq after having destroyed saddam hussein. iran would have preferred they left in a shorter amount of time and doesn't want the u.s. to come back. so iran will fight isis no doubt but they don't want an increased american presence. >> and they don't want to see the u.s. in iran fighting isis? >> i think washington is schizophrenic. i think some in washington say if russia want to fight isis and iran want to fight isis go ahead but i would say it's schizophrenic. >> rose: the defense told me sometimes the russian airstrikes
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are hitting american-supported rebel groups. >> but sometimes -- take the kurds as an example and i think you can understand this and it's the most bizarre proxy fight. the kurds are there for a long time in a u.s.-supported group. not client but almost the most favored allie. >> rose: and successful. >> turkey doesn't want the kurds to get too powerful. some of the kurds are classified by the u.s. as a terrorist organization to make it more complicated. what's russia doing? vu russia's been bombing and helping the kurds advance so they're trying to pry away the
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kurdish allie from the united states and many believe what russia's trying to do is drive turkey into a ground war against the kurds to punish turkey for having shot down a russian plane. >> rose: what is the chance of escalation between turkey and rush that gets out of control? >> possible but i don't think either country has a real interest in there. they still do a lot of business but the possibility they could end up fighting a proxy war against the kurds is possible. >> rose: how does the united states develop a strategy to defeat isis and recapture mosul with the iraqi government and army and take the headquarters of isis. >> i think you need to deal with the powers around. let's say you could get people together. the russians together and -- >> rose: come to geneva.
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>> but in a private environment and say what do you want? what's your price? here's iran, russia, the kurds, turkey. >> rose: and saudi. >> and arab. we all have grievances we want something. saudis want iran to stop pressuring them in yemen. i know what turkey want. turkey want the kurdish issue not to be a threat. i know what russia wants. russia want to show it's good to it's friends. >> rose: and a power to be reckoned with. >> and iran want to know it has close friends in the regim >> rose: in the gulf world it is prepared to be as strong as saudi arabia is. >> as long as you know what all the different players want and everybody has their hand in the
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pot -- >> rose: what do you think the chances are of retaking mosul before then of the obama administration? that's less than a year. >> mosul possibly and i heard there's a hope if you take mosul you don't need to take raqua and if you take mosul raqua you don't need. >> rose: you predicted the biggest stories of 2016 in my hand on nbc january 1. one, rise of the far right. part is fueled by the migration crisis. >> most is fueled by the migration crisis. >> rose: you have been covering that in 2016. >> undoubtedly. >> rose: it could destabilize
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europe in your judgment? >> the middle east collapse into chaos is the natural reaction. people are running from this and running to safety which is running west and north. >> two, more consensus against isis. i think that's happening. >> i know what all the players want. >> rose: what they want is not isis around. >> none of them. >> rose: more domestic terrorism. you mean back in the united states which is like paris. >> the more pressure there is on isis and i think isis dies eventually. this is not a group that has a winning philosophy. >> rose: and the money is not as it once was. >> but they still have enough and enough people. it's an organization that needs to keep attacking to survive. >> rose: the administration has signalled. >> all the players nipping around the conflict can't seem to arrive i think the u.s. will
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get drawn more deeply. not hundreds of thousands of troops but more. >> rose: they have 3500 now. >> and how much of the brain power of the administration? how much time is being spent thinking about this. >> rose: and special forces according to what i was told was search missions it's not training and advising and spot budget missions. >> a few months ago they would never have admitted that publicly. a big change will come to iran. what is that? >> iran is going through one of the most interesting periods of all the countries in the region iran is the most dynamic and going through the most pivotal change. i was in iran a few days ago and the iran nuclear deal has been implemented and is being i a
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implemented. the iaea certified they did what they were supposed to do and poured concrete into a nuclear facility and exported the rich uranium and new the money is starting to come and the banking sanctions are starting to get loosened and people are excited. and there are tensions. there are those who think this is it. the door is opening and once the door opens there's no way -- everything will change. and others who have vested interest in the regime who say no, we'll open the door a little so we can all survive. >> rose: seven, a hard year for russia mainly because of economic things. oil is down, sanctions are still on. ukraine. >> and they want to prop up assad. you get political benefit. it's expensive. you want a constant war supporting rebels in ukraine it's expensive.
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the ruble is weak. >> rose: the headlines from the financial times, saudi and russia agree oil halt. so they're going to freeze the supply so the price will go up. they want to sell as much oil as they can. those three countries have similar interests right now. >> the saudis were able to absorb low oil prices for a long time and now the saudis decided they can't let oil go to zero or everybody dies. >> rose: the next one china gets series about the environment india does not. and is warming relations with the whole idea that somehow
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latin america becomes more vital. >> the u.s. announced it will start doing flights to cuba again and you see all the problems venezuela is having effectively in collapse and i was speculating in the u.s. makes inroads in cuba and if they become a success that success can be contagious. >> rose: turkey takes center stage. >> still the main pathway. the turks are starting to crackdown but it's the main artery. >> rose: why do you think turkey could be pivotal in 2016? >> i think turkey is a crossroads of so many issues. isis fighters go in and the kurdish issue is based in turk and it's a nato member state. so many issues. the russia/turkey conflict. and look, you can get in a car
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and i've done this -- go to the turkish border, look at an isis flag, a black flag and the turkish border and get in why your same car and drive two and a half hours, three hours and you get to a nato base. that's a strange situation. you can drive from a nato base and drive to isis. >> rose: i can do a first-hand conversation with russia and nato and the thing i think putin is driven by in part is borders. that's what he feared about georgia and ukraine is nato coming in and being that close to the russian border. they have a long history of worrying about it's borders and putin is driven by that i'd andhe acknowledged it. >> chaos creates opportunities and opportunities people like putin don't want to miss. there's chaos next door he sees
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an opportunity for expansion. there was an opportunity for turkish representation and rebuild the empire around them and they're competing agendas. >> rose: the book is called "and then all hell broke loose." two decades in the middle east. great to have you. >> a real pleasure. >> rose: thank you for joining us. see you next time. for more about the program visit us online on captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh
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announcer: a kqed television production. woman: it kind of was, like, the bang that set off the night. man: that is the funkiest restaurant. thomas: the honey walnut prawns will make your insides smile. woman #2: more tortillas, please! man #2: what is comfort food if it isn't gluten and grease? man #3: i love crème brûlée. woman #3: the octopus should have been, like, quadrapus, because it was really small. sbrocco: and you know that when you split something, all the calories evaporate, and then there's none. whalen: that's right.


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