tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC February 1, 2016 8:00am-9:01am PST
legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you. visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. good monday morning. i'm tamron hall. we start with developing news to report to you right now. a new quinnipiac poll out just a short time ago, it shows donald trump now extending his lead over senator ted cruz, 31% to 24%. but of course, trump's big lead is dependent on first-time caucusgoers. that's the big question hovering over the head of the front-runner this morning. he leads cruz 40-22% among those
likely first-time caucusgoers. this morning, the candidates, trump, cruz, all of them from both sides, making that important final pitch. >> well, i don't know. i can't tell you what's going to happen because it's an election. and the only poll that matters is the poll that's going to start in a little while. it's going to be very interesting. >> and we have the caucuses covered from all angles today with reporters all over the state. we start with my colleague, chris jansing. she's live at java jones in downtown des moines. she'll be with us throughout the hour talking to the top strategists and people in the campaigns. we showed donald trump this morning. he's been very boisterous sing the summer of trump. this morning, his tone very interesting. not predicting a win. chuck todd is saying that there is an eerie calm with senator cruz's campaign. and they seem more confident.
what can you tell us from on the ground? >> yeah, and there's also an enthusiasm in the marco rubio camp. i'll tell you, it's going to be interesting to see, and java joes is a perfect example of why. you can see the people behind me. i spent a good bit of this morning talking to people. they bear out what the "des moines register" poll over the weekend showed. on the republican side, as many as 45% of caucusgoers say they could figure out another person to vote for. in other words, they aren't dug in. so we'll see if there's a reason why donald trump is subdued and why ted cruz seems like he's feeling pretty confident. but come on. this is it. it's the first test of whether that trump phenomenon is for real. if bernie sanders supporters are going to defy tradition and the young first-time caucusgoers are going to propel the oldest candidate in the race to a highly improbable win. we have already seen the stunning reshaping of the race. the best fnlsed candidate,
arguably the best known politician in the race, jeb bush, is near the bottom of the pack. scott walker, once considered a favorite, he didn't even make it to iowa. and the state that has long been criticized as basically irrelevant to anybody who isn't a political junky this morning actually does stand in a position with just a few hundred thousand voters of again reshaping this race as the first votes are cast. so tamron, we're just waiting for the games to begin. >> absolutely. it is so interesting for people to follow the caucuses as we know there are different sets of rules. chris, for republicans and for democrats, and how this all plays out. but what we do know, despite being inundated with an incredible amount of ads from all sides, donald trump spending the least of his money from the outside, to the extraordinary amount by jeb bush, there are still so many people in iowa, some behind you, who are still undecided or at least that's what they say on camera. >> i would say half of the
people i talked to this morning were still saying either they were completely undecided or they narrowed it down to two or three candidates. you ask them, they have been listening to this, and believe me, you turn on the tv in iowa, you are inundated with ads. it doesn't matter where you live in iowa, it's not far for you to have to go to one of these rallies being held. of course, over the last many months, but intensively over the last several weeks. yet, they haven't made up their minds. for a lot of them, it's going into the room with their neighbors, talking to their neighbors, and the influence and the way it turns. you know, we also have to see whether or not the incoming storm, even though it's supposed to hold off until after the caucuses, scare some people away. >> i'm going to talk with you throughout this hour. we'll have a number of strategists, people inside these campaigns that can give us fresh information here at 11:00 a.m. eastern, a long day, but we're still getting new details in. thank you, chris. let's go to kerry sanders in waterloo, iowa. two hours northeast of des
moines. that's where donald trump will hold a rally in about an hour to make his final case before caucusgoers. give me more insight here. the donald trump we're hearing this morning, the guy that appeared on the "today" show a stark contrast to the confident player who was willing to throw the cards on the table and dump out of the fox debate. what are you hearing from his team? >> well, those that i hear from the campaign say that this is now the beginning of the beginning. and so they really know that this is where it really starts tonight. with the caucus. you can see over my shoulder here that we have some of the folks who have already started to fill in here. donald trump is not expected here for about an hour. it's a slow process getting past the magnometers that the secret service has set up. i expect the area will fill up. when we look at the polls, let's look at the "des moines register" poll that shows donald trump right now with the most recent poll, up 28% over ted cruz at 23%. then we go to the new quinnipiac
poll that shows donald trump in iowa, 31% to ted cruz's 24%, and rubio at 17%. so, those numbers can actually influence voters. and a true example of that is i just spoke to larry and elizabeth daley, who are just over my shoulder here, waiting for donald trump. both of them wearing trsh shirts for donald trump. both of them enthusiastic for donald trump. neither of them have ever gone to a caucus. larry says there's no question i'm going tonight, but he and his wife had a debate because elizabeth said it's going to be cold. i don't think i want to go through all this and go to the caucus. and so that's what happens necessarily with a poll. and i think donald trump recognizes that. those who are the supporters, those who have never done this before, may sit back and go, look, he's winning in the polls. what do i need to go to a caucus tonight? finally, one thing i thought was interesting if you have never participated, some folks have never registered and votes much less gone to a caucus.
where spoke to one young man, i asked whether he was intimidated. he said a caucus, it sounds like something caught in your throat. he goes, i don't know what this is going to be like, but i'm going to go anyway. >> comedy routines aside, tell me about the crowd behind you. do they seem enthusiastic? there was a rally for trump, and maybe we have grown accustomed to him having thousands of people, the last few rallies here have been smaller. >> they have been smaller, but they were also somewhat of a different setting. that is because donald trump didn't stand at a podium yesterday in the two rallies he had. rather, he was with jerry falwell jr. they were seated in seats on the platform that is set up behind me rather than the podium. and it was more of a question and answer. i think that we definitely did see a change in the demeanor in that setting. it wasn't like a regular news interview, but it was certainly an interview process. it's a little different than
standing up and raising your fist up and getting people riled up. i was told this here today is much more of a pep rally than what we saw in the last two gatherings. >> kerry, thank you very much. senator ted cruz will be making his final pitch to voters at two rallies as well today before the caucuses. hallie jackson is covering the cruz campaign. she joins us live from des moines. i want to follow up on what chuck todd our colleague said about senator cruz's campaign, the feeling there. is there like a silent confidence? what are his pollsters telling him? what is the inside information that you think they're receiving there? >> i don't know that it's even a silent confidence. i think they're feeling pretty openly confident about their chances here in iowa. that's because of their organization. they believe that they have a superior ground game, that their ground game is basically second to none. they're going to get people out to the caucuses, they believe, in the parts of the state where ted cruz has strength, and they believe they will have a showing that outperforms where ted cruz is in the polls. you talk about what he's doing
today. he spent this morning kind of quietly with his daughters, with his wife. they had breakfast. they're hanging out a little bit. an aide said senator cruz finished a couple levels of candy crush as he took it easy before he heads out to finish the visiting of all 99 counties in iowa. he'll do that before heading to his event tonight. that's symbolic of how much time cruz has spent in the state, how much work he's done on the ground to get people out to support him and caucus for him. the campaign believes he's in a really strong position, despite the polling that shows that donald trump is the one who has been on top for weeks now. trump's attacks apparently effective against ted cruz. so we say it all the time, tamron, but this does feel like christmas. you're a kid on christmas day, waiting for santa claus to come down the chimney to see what are the results going to be. >> with christmas, it's often
the thought that counts. this one, depending on the gift you get, you won't be happy. let's talk about the controversy with senator cruz, the mailer that went out. donald trump has called him a fraud. explain what happened and why his campaign has chosen not to apologize for it. >> the campaign is not apologizing because the campaign feels this is a pretty typical thing that happens in the political process. you send out these so-call ed social pressure mailers. the idea is to get people to come out who maybe haven't been out in a while. you can see it, voting violation. it looks very official. there's your neighbors' names on it. the idea is to say your neighbors are caucused or not, and you should do the same. the iowa secretary of state slapped cruz on the wrist for this, scolding him, and the campaign's response is, hey, why is it an official in the state coming after us. this is unprecedented so soon before the caucuses. you can see the statement up there, the piece of literature that misrepresented the role of the office and misrepresented
iowa election law. from cruz's perspective, this happens all the time and happened in 2014 with republicans in the state of iowa. for them, it's really a non-issue, although trump is trying to make it an issue. you have heard him talking about it all weekend. >> indeed he has. he called him a fraud and admonished the cruz campaign for what he implied with dirty tricks. to your point, it is something we have seen other campaigns try in the past. thank you very much for that information. as i mentioned this morning, we heard some interesting comments from the candidates from both sides all morning long. many making their final pitches on national morning shows. here's a look at some of the things you may have missed this morning. >> i think it's a difference between making progress. i'm a progressive who actually likes to get things done. not just talk about it, but deliver results for people. >> we feel good about our campaign. we know it's an uphill climb, but we're fighting hard, worker hard. >> donald trump is not going to take the office.
not going to be sworn in as president of the united states. i will beat him and beat him badly. >> you have a mix of the tone and even a prediction from senator sanders that he would beat donald trump if he gets the nomination. let's talk about the front-runner on the democratic side. it is right now hillary clinton. and she just paid a visit to her campaign field office in des moines joined by her daughter, chelsea. she has one official event on the schedule today. a caucus night party at drake university in des moines. a likely sign her campaign is feeling confident going into tonight. but, our newest polling finds a familiar storyline unfolding that did not work in her favor eight years ago. while the new quinnipiac poll that we told you about just a few minutes ago shows the race neck and neck, it also re-enforces that a major factor tonight will be those first-time caucusgoers, the same group that you all know helped put barack obama on top in 2008. the new poll finds senator sanders topping clinton 62% to
35% among democratic first-timers. while clinton leads by more than ten points among voters who attended prior caucuses. clinton spent this weekend barnstorming through the hawkeye state, got a boost from her husband and daughter. kristen welker is covering the clinton campaign. from 2008, we know that the clinton campaign certainly does not want the headline tomorrow to be "it's 2008 all over again." >> well, that would be devastating, tamron, no doubt about that. i have been talking to clinton campaign officials who tell me they're feeling a measured confidence going into tonight, in part because of that "des moines register" poll that you just showed. it's a highly predictive poll. in 2008, it showed then-senator barack obama up by a few points. they're also feeling confident, though, for other reasons. they have really put a lot of work into building up a robust ground game. it is based on modeled after barack obama's ground game in 2008. in fact, they have a lot of the
same folks working on her campaign who were here back in 2008. and she has also run a very different campaign here in iowa. she spent a lot more time here. this was the state where she had her first campaign event, and you'll recall she started out with those small intimate events, really talking to iowans one-on-one, more of a listening tour. and she's really built up to that huge event that we saw last night, 2,600 people, the largest event yet she has had here in iowa. they're feeling confident, but of course, we won't know the results until we see them, but here's what her communications director had to say earlier today. take a listen. >> well, i think we're going to win tonight, but i think more people are going to show up and caucus for hillary clinton tonight than any other candidate on the democratic side, for the last weekend, we had 186,000 doors knocked on by nearly 9,000 volunteers. so we feel very good going into tonight. it's going to be a close race. polls show it very close, but we feel good.
>> tamron, the thing that makes the campaign jittery is that they were feeling confident back in 2008. those who were with secretary clinton back then. they say the wild card, as you pointed out, those younger voters, will they turn out? at this point, it's a wait and see. >> kristen, thank you very much. let's go back to chris. she's also in iowa right now. and chris, what's do you have for us? >> well, thanks very much, tamron. let me tell you, we said it before. kristen reiterated. it's about turn out tonight her in iowa. joining me is the chairman of the iowa republican party, jeff kaufman. thanks so much for being with us. >> glad to be here. >> so, i spoke with joanie urnest who knows a little bit about iowa politics, tom harkin, who knows about iowa politics, the current and former senator, and i asked them about turnout tonight. let me play for you what they had to say. it kind of surprised me, the opinion. >> i think we're going to have a
huge turnout. as long as the weather holds and the snow doesn't come until after midnight, i think this may be the biggest turnout ever. >> it's all about the turnout. and who can get their supporters out to the caucuses. so i think we're going to have a huge turnout because so far, the weather is holding af. >> you think it could be a record turnout? >> i think it could be a record turnout. >> which could favor donald trump. >> which could favor donald trump if they come out. >> has this race been so transformed that we can see record turnout on your side? >> i really don't see a scenario where we don't beat our high water mark of 121,000. i really don't. there isn't anything normal about this particular cycle. that's not necessarily a bad thing. i think the people are speaking. i think they're finding a way to get their anger and frustration out to the people. and i think that's probably another way of looking at that is the turnout tonight. we're seeing unprecedented, and i mean unprecedented kales into the republican party of iowa
office, about 100 an hour, compared -- >> wheare those, where do i cau, how do i caucus? >> where do i caucus? people are wanting to give last-minute opinions to the campaigns. we have seen quite a few no-party and democrats asking about how to change their affiliation. >> that's another thing people might not understand. you can register night of, or you can change your affiliation. >> absolutely. in either party's caucus. >> so if it is indeed record turnout, are you with the conventional wisdom favors donald trump? >> you get to that critical number. ted cruz's campaign and ground game is solid, no doubt about that. he's going to be turning some people out that may have skipped a cycle or two as well. it's hard to pinpoint everything as an advantage to donald trump. rand paul is also pushing very hard in the college precincts. so i think it depends on where, but if you get up to that
140,000, 150,000 level, i think probably that's going to be an election that's going to favor donald trump. but i don't know that turnout alone is going to determine this. there's so many factors that's guiding this whole election. >> let me ask you another one. as i was out, i was reminded as if i needed to be reminded, so many voters said to me, i'm here because i need to take the measure of the person. i want to look him in the eye, hear what he has to say in person. something that a lot of voters in america can't relate to. as you heard hallie jackson reporting, ted cruz today is going to forget the full grassley. visit every county, something donald trump didn't do. he kind of tends to get on his plane with the big trump emblazoned and trop in and do these big rallies. does something like that make a difference? >> i think it's one of the factors. i mean, iowa exists not necessarily because you have to campaign in that way. i think iowa exists because there needs to be the opportunity to campaign that way. but certainly, if you have a
person, i think there's going to be unprecedented voters who are going to wait until they get in the caucus room to gmake ipthei mind. visiting all 99 counties, i think that will probably matter to residents. >> i want to play to you something rand paul had to say over the weekend and get your reaction to it. >> there are a lot of us who are alarmed by having donald trump as a nominee. i have been one who says we have to have a bigger, better, bolder party. that means a more diverse party. i think donald trump will make us the sort of the lily white party, which is not going to win any elections, frankly, and i worry about him scaring people away based on sort of ethnic generalities, which are don't think are good for our party or for the country. >> we have kind of seen on a national level, let's take this outside of iowa, a coalescing of some establishment leaders who are trying to find a way to not make donald trump the nominee. does that worry you if he wins
here? some people say then it's a juggernaut. he wins iowa, he wins new hampshire, there's no stopping him. >> it really doesn't, because the iowa voter, you know, i don't even know for sure what establishment means. sometimes it's used as a hammer. sometimes it's used to make a point before you make the point. i think the iowa voter has a little libber tainian in them. they're christian evangelical. businessro republican. i don't know you can place an iowa voter in this catatory or that category. i agree with senator paul who says if we grow the party, that's positive. if there's a democrat changing their affiliation to vote for just him, i get a crack at him to talk about david young and talk about legislative candidates. the more people we bring in, the more people i have a potential to introduce to what republicanism is all about. >> all right, jeff, thank you. for the democratic side of things. we turn to brad anderson, a hillary clinton supporter, and you worked on the obama campaign in 20008 and 2012. >> i did. >> thanks for having in.
obviously, coming into the race, she was the best-known democrat, the best financed democrat. now bernie sanders likes to say he started out 41 points behind. now he's within striking distance. he's killing her in new hampshire. how did this happen? >> i think it happened because iowans take this process serious and give people like bernie sanders a shot. that's the beauty of iowa, right? you can't come in here with a super pac and expect to buy a nomination for someone. and i really think, you know, a big storyline, i was telling jeff this earlier, a big storyline of this campaign is the total and complete ineffectiveness of super pacs. and you have had, i think, $50 million, $60 million in super pac money spent, especially on the republican side, and they have had a net zero result. i think iowa is a state where we give people like bernie sanders, we give others, you know, we gave rick santorum a shot, listened to their case, and you know, we have these
conversations dating as far back as april and may. and you know, it's all exciting now. we're all here, and you have watched tom brokaw walk by. it's a big deal, but you know, in august in the dog days of summer, you still get 50 people at events in lamar, iowa, or ft. dodge, and that's what makes iowa special. >> but now we're on caucus day, and it really is a dead heat between these two candidates. you are obviously on the winning surprise ofside of a surprise i 2008. how worried are you about being on the losing side of a surprise tonight? >> look, there is no question that this campaign in iowa is going to come down to organization. every poll, quinnipiac, iowa poll, it all shows that. it's within the margin of error. and if it does come down to organization, which i believe it will, i will say that i think the clinton campaign has built the best organization ever in iowa caucus presidential
campaign history. and that includes, by the way, the obama 2008 campaign. the clinton organization, they started in april with 30 staff. there's 1,681 precincts in iowa. and by august, they had identified a supporter, a clinton supporter in every single precinct. that may seem, what's the big deal there. some of these precincts have four or five democrats. this is jeff kaufmann turf, right? but it shows the importance of what they believe to be the importance of a state-wide organization early on. and they have taken iowa very seriously. that's to their credit. >> brad, thanks very much. i think going back to new york, you see more things change, and this has been a race that has been turned everything we thought we knew on its head. some things stay the same. face-to-face time with voters and organization on the ground. we'll see if that holds true. >> we have seen it change because of donald trump coming in on a huge airplane and literally holding rallies in
hangars. that's never been seen. tom brokaw has covered politics longer than both of us combined in years and he's never seen anything like it. that's the major headline. going back to the rand paul interview, that was an interview i did with senator paul yesterday. his remarks regarding the lack of diversity, he's tying into what he predicts will be an impressive showing with his campaign among some of the silent libertarians and silent college students who are also first-time caucusgoers. his father got 21%, 22% the last time around. he believes that the polling is faulty, and that there may be a headline coming out regarding some of the enthusiasm that we have not talked a lot about with him. so that was an interesting note there as well. thank you, chris. we have new live pictures. we're expecting senator marco rubio to make a quick stop at one of his campaign field offices near des moines where campaign staffers are certainly very busy. volunteers working phone banks. some 1600 locations like this
throughout the state of iowa. we'll look at potential voters who are caucusing tonight, and coming up as well, listen to this. our first read team says what we all know, iowa does not determine who wins the nomination on either side, but what iowa does is shape the rest of the nation. we're going to take a look at what's next if trump wins, if he loses, what happens. if hillary clinton wins, if she loses, what happens next. we'll talk liesk with a couple senior advisers. also, jonathan capeheart will join us with anallicize in the final hours. we're monitoring a powerful storm system building in the midwest, but the good news for the folks in iowa, this is not expected to impact the caucuses tonight, as they finish up their voting. that starts 8:00 p.m. eastern time. our live coverage of the caucuses continues next on msnbc. stay right there. we'll be right back. welcome to the world 2116, you can fly across town in minutes or across the globe in under an hour.
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country be looking at iowa. actually, much of the world will be looking at iowa. what they will be looking at is not just to see who wins the caucus, does hillary clinton win, bernie sanders win it, who wins it. what they will really be looking at is to see whether or not iowa is prepared to move this country away from establishment politics. >> that, of course, senator bernie sanders rallying supporters in iowa last night, making that final pitch. as we have reported, the latest polls out of iowa that we're looking at this morning finds that sanders is in a dead heat with clinton. our first read team notes this. with the exception of trump, sanders' campaign has been the story of the 2016 campaign cycle so far. the vermont senator has gone
from being quirky independent back benture to the candidate giving hillary clinton a neck-and-neck race. but it's hard to see how he becomes the nominee without winning iowa. over the weekend, his campaign announced it had raised $20 million. that's in january alone. that's a vast majority of that money has come from donors giving under $200. setting another record for the number of individual small donors. let's go back to my colleague, chris jansing. she is in iowa with more on this sanders campaign. their strategy, win or lose, out of iowa. chris. >> i'm joined now by tad duvine, a democratic strategist and senior adviser to the seanders campaign. first of all, congratulations. impressive numbers, $20 million. what are you going to do with that money? how do you turn this into something more than a blip on the radar screen? >> we're going to go on from iowa to new hampshire, to nevada, to south carolina, to all the states on march 1st.
we have the resources to run a full national campaign. we've got a candidate with an inincredible message. we started off 41 points behind, and now we're virtually tied in every poll. >> the message is resonating. the money is coming in. you have a broad base of supporters because, again, the number of people donating less than $200 is impressive. but you're behind on the organization. how do you play catch-up? >> we were behind. we started way behind. hillary clinton has been here for nine years. we have been here for nine months. we started off behind and built a great organization in iowa. we're building those organizations all across the country. we have staff in place in every march 1st state. we have people in states after that as well. big campaigns on the ground in new hampshire, nevada, south carolina. we caught up to them organizationally. the way our fund-raising is structured, we'll have more resources than they do in the weeks ahead. >> let's talk about tonight. the big question about first-time caucusgoers as i have
been going out. i see what the concern is. there are people who definitely feel fervor both for donald trump and bernie sanders, but i don't always get a yes for sure that they're going to come out and caucus. i know you feel confident about it. there is an argument, i think, and a strong one from what we hurbd in first read, bernie s d sanders needs to win iowa to make the case he's a serious national candidate. do you feel that way? >> no, there's not one state we have to win. we have to win, and new hampshire, the expectations are high. if we can begin tonight with a win in iowa, and come back from such a huge deficit and demonstrate bernie sanders can take on the entire establishment, that's a good signal. >> good to see you. thank you so much. tamron, you know this is going to set so many expectations and really determine headlines, so it's hard to understate just how -- overstate just how important these results are tonight. >> that's interesting you put it that way, because we are going to look next at the first read
talks about, which is setting expectations surrounding what will happen tonight. and what it may mean for new hampshire and on down the line. we keep hearing that south carolina would be hillary clinton's firewall if she fails to win in iowa and new hampshire. what does it mean for bernie sanders? you heard fraom his tacampaign about the world not necessarily revolving around iowa. we'll see what happens. plus, we'll hear more from the young voters and what they're telling us. matt lauer got a chance to catch up with a few of them who are now ready to caucus. an image of donald trump. let's listen in. >> are you motivated to that degree? >> absolutely. absolutely. young people have the energy. i think the young people are going to get out and do it. >> our special live coverage of the iowa caucuses continues next. jonathan capehart will join me to discuss some of the headlines we're hearing this morning. we'll be right back.
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if we stand together tomorrow night, we can do it again, and we can restore that last best hope for mankind, that shining city on a hill. that is the united states of america. >> riled up ted cruz wrapping up a rally in des moines late last night. he'll make his final pitch to voters at two rallies this afternoon. let's go back to my colleague chris jansing zrb she's standing by with a cruz supporter that his campaign hopes will make a difference with some of the toughest conservatives in that state, chris. >> yeah, he was fired up, wasn't he? are you guys fired up? yeah. we are in downtown des moines with republican congressman steve king of iowa, who serves as national co-chair for ted cruz. welcome. good to see you again. how are you feeling about tonight? >> feeling pretty good. >> why?
>> because everybody on the cruz team has done all things they can do. they have taken all the talent they had and developed it, the resources, raised a money that was a strategy from the beginning. ted cruz laid this out for me in mid-summer, and they're on target for what they plan to do. so i'm optimistic. and it's always cautiously optimistic, because you never really know what's going to happen. >> where is the caution coming from? >> just that the one thing that didn't fit exactly according to plan was cruz peaked out earlier. he went to the top of the polls earlier. then that starts a game of political king of the hill, which meant everybody fires their guns at ted cruz. well, nobody can sustain that indefinitely. so it's flattened out the ascendancy of his rise and how flat is that? we don't quite know yet. >> maybe he did peak too soon? >> there's that possibility. it would have been better to peak about mid-january, and bet toor hit the top of the polls by mid-january, by the time the other campaigns get retooled to turn their guns on you, the caucus is here.
>> other surprises, people who might have gone to support ted cruz have gone elsewhere. one of them, sarah palin. somebody frankly, who the senator flew around with, right, during the last election cycle. they were on the stump together. here's what she said this morning on the "today" show. >> this was probably a tough call for you between ted cruz and donald trump. >> it wasn't tough. >> really? >> it wasn't tough. i had supported ted cruz in his run for senate. there out of texas, and when i endorsed him, he was barely a blip on the radar screen down there. i want to keep him in the senate, and i want donald trump to be our president. >> folks like sarah palin, yeah, you're kind of shaking your head. jerry falwell jr. who has been out with him. why do you think they went the way they did, and how much does it hurt you? >> chris, i didn't hear a reason from sarah palin in that. she just said it wasn't a hard call. i don't know many people who have been able to say no to donald trump. he has a massive amount of assets and resources that he can deploy when it comes time to
convince someone. and that has to affect the way people think. not only the plus-ups of the promotion, the limelight, all the resources that are there, but the other side of that -- >> you're saying sarah palin didn't do it out of true support for donald trump but self-interest. >> i would say knowing what i bow that sometimes you never really get down to the heart of hearts. when i see where sarah palin has been on policies and issues. i'm confident she's much more comfortable with ted cruz's issues than donald trump. >> being the way the polls have gone not in your direction the last couple days, as we have seen a couple polls coming out. do you need a poll from the folks who are lower down and maybe people will look at the electability question, people like ben carson and rick santorum and mike huckabee. do you need to, and can you? marco rubio. >> i think that's part of it. and i have been saying to voters now for several days, it's become a binary choice. and it's either ted cruz or
donald trump. and if you want a constitutional conservative, and then you need to vote for ted cruz. if not, go for someone else along in the list, because of where they are in the polls, a de facto vote for trump. i think we should send a thank you card to all of those who have entered the race. it's come down to this binary decision. >> steve king, good to see you. good luck tonight. tamron, back toia. >> thank you. i want to send our audience to iowa, live pictures of the field office near des moines for senator marco rubio. as i understand it, he is there with his campaign workers. his volunteers, and many people are keeping an eye on what some have described as a late surge by senator rubio. will it place him at first or second? that's the yet to be seen in io but it may set the stage for senator rubio to emerge as a very strong establishment candidate out of new hampshire. so again, today does not end with the caucuses in iowa. but it certainly sets the stage.
you see senator rubio is there. hallie jackson, my colleague, is also in the building. a meet and greet. senator marco rubio speaking to the fact that the enthusiasm and truly the need for this to be seen as the beginning and not the end for campaigns like his where he could get some momentum. marco-mea mentum, they describe as, going into new hampshire. jonathan capehart, let's start with marco rubio, since we see him here. our first read team says there's a plausible path if he finished third in iowa and new hampshire. he becomes the establishment alternative to trump and cruz. and could consolidate the bush, christie, kasich vote, if and when they get out of the race. what are your thoughts there? >> that sounds actually very good to me. in all the debates we have seen
marco rubio participate in, his performance has been really, really good. he's been on message. he's clear. he is a happier face of the republican party than sort of the snarling that we're hearing from donald trump and even ted cruz. and since former florida governor jeb bush, who was supposed to be the establishment candidate in the republican party, doesn't seem to be measuring up in terms of support, marco rubio could be that person, if he does well tonight in iowa, if he does well a week from now in new hampshire. >> what's interesting, chris asked congressman king if ted cruz had peaked too early. and that allowed time for donald trump to attack him, which continues now with referring to him as a reverse anchor baby, be being born in canada. rubio and donald trump have yet to go one-on-one. they have yet to lock horns. if trump comes out of iowa on top, he certainly will set his sights on marco rubio as his
next target because that would be the next individual who would be a threat if he's votes come together. i do want to talk about trump, and our first read team says it's possible trump could lose iowa and still end up the nominee. but his path is much easier if he wins both of the first two states. that is obvious there, but i want to talk about the blow to his campaign, if he loses iowa, when your brand is about winning, when you have rode the wave of every poll, both the obscure and well known, coming out a loser even if it's a close race, what does that do to donald trump? >> he has even been on record in interviews on television saying if he doesn't win iowa by his own definition, he would be a loser. he said yesterday on the campaign trail that if he doesn't win, it would have been tonight, it would have been a big waste of time and money and effort. if he doesn't win the iowa caucuses. so that makes donald trump, you know, the person who watch in terms of what happens.
do his supporters come out and caucus? by how much does he win if he does win the caucuses? by how much does he lose if he does lose the caucus? back to marco rubio, tamron. he and senator -- trump and marco rubio have locked horns. it was about four or five months ago. they did do a little tussle. because rubio didn't go anywhere in the polls, donald trump didn't set his sights on him. but once things shake out, and if marco rubio does bubble up and rise up, you better be sure that donald trump is going to zero in on him like a laser beam. >> probably by wednesday morning. let's talk about quickly, though, the other side. clinton here, and our first read team says clinton could still wind up as the nominee even if she loses both iowa and new hampshire. that's taking the most difficult, most expensive route and the most time consuming path possible. yes, hillary can win the nomination if she loses iowa, but boy, it's going to be miserable for her and her
campaign. miserable, perhaps, until we get to south carolina where they are banking heavily on the african-american vote in that state. >> yes. south carolina is the firewall. let's keep something in mind. hillary clinton didn't win the iowa caucuses in 2008. but she did win new hampshire. so to my mind, if she loses the iowa caucuses tonight, yes, it's a blow, but it's not a death blow. if she loses the new hampshire primary a week from now, that would be a major blow. and she would limp into south carolina. but because the african-american electorate in that state is a major part of the democratic base, she goes into that contest formidable, much more support in the african-american community than senator sanders. >> jonathan capehart thanks for joining us. coming up, we're hearing from donald trump. he has a new facebook video up. apparently, it's already been viewed some 200,000 times. it just went up. we'll play it for you after a quick break.
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a new development to throw into the pot here. donald trump has just posted a new facebook video encouraging iowans to go out to caucus for him tonight. the new video is accompanied with a banner >> directing people to find their caucus location. here's a glimpse of it. >> changing our government and changing our mostly incompetent leaders starts today in iowa. so get out and vote. we will make america great again. i promise. >> and one of his rivals, marco rubio speaking right now at his field office in iowa. >> children on their own because i had a student loan only two to three years ago because i grew up paycheck to paycheck. we lived paycheck to paycheck and because we are working now to ensure that our children grow with these strong values. i feel passionately about these issues. i live where they face now and
it's better than what hillary clinton stands for. if i'm the nominee, we will unite the party an country, defeat hillary clinton or for that matter, bernie sanders and i'll be the next president of the united states and together, we will usher in a new american century and it started in iowa and with you and we from the bottom of our hearts are truly grateful. continue working, see you tonight. >> marco rubio appearing in a cheerful food in ankeny, iowa. look at what our reporters found on the ground. looking at several of the campaigns. we hear about the vote efforts. we take you inside a view you may have not seen before. an jusp me off right here. oh no, i'll take you up to the front of the school. that's where your friends are. seriously, it's, it's really fine. you don't want to be seen with your dad? no, it's..no.. this about a boy? dad! stop, please.
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donald trump's rally set to start here at the top of the hour. meanwhile, msnbc's jacob suth sutherov at university of iowa campus. they try to get it to work. what's the latest there? >> reporter: that's the name of the game, tamron. i'm right smack in the middle of the campus. one caucus location is on that corner and another at the feel house. the name of the game is coming out and each campaign is trying to make direct contact with all of them. rand paul had 1500 students show up but this is a liberal district. heavily distract one histor historically. that's what we follow tonight, tamron. >> can't wait to see what comes out from there. that does it for this hour.
i'm tamron hall on "msnbc live." the coverage will continue with andrea mitchell reporting live from des moines. stay with our coverage throughout the evening beginning tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern. we'll see you back here tomorrow. ♪ ♪ (cell phone rings) where are you? well the squirrels are back in the attic. mom? your dad won't call an exterminator... can i call you back, mom? he says it's personal this time... if you're a mom, you call at the worst time. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. where are you? it's very loud there. are you taking a zumba class?
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>> i hope you will fight for me. >> by the people. >> i will stand up and fight for you, every single day. >> and for the people. >> thank you and god bless you. >> will republicans choose the billionaire front-runner over the senate antagonist? >> stand with us, caucus for us. >> we have to win this election and in iowa. >> if we stand together, we will win. >> i really want to win. >> and we can restore that last best hope for mankind. >> if we do, we run the table, folks. >> that shining city on a hill. >> and now, it's all about turnout. with a snowstorm baring down on iowa, whose supporters are actually going to show up? >> are you going to caucus? >> yes. >> i'm for ted cruz? >> senator sanders, why? >> i like his ideals. >> carly