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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  February 1, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm PST

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word? >> granular. >> not glandular. >> yes. you probably talked to these people. >> all right. i hope you enjoy it. that's it for us. but don't move, the special iowa caucus coverage continues. my mam, brian williams, chris matthews and rachel maddow will be picking things up right now. take it away, guys. it all starts in iowa. a very tight race on both sides. >> wow! god bless the great state of iowa. >> iowa may be rural and it may be land-locked, but iowans are not rubes. be prepared for anything. >> it's going to be a contest. >> the eyes of america will be on the state of iowa. >> no one could have predicted a
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year back any of this. >> we are going to make our country great again. >> this is so weird this year, i love it. >> if you give me the chance to serve you, i will work my heart out. >> in all the years we've been covering politics, there's never been quite a field like this one. >> good evening, everybody. we are in for a remarkable night in american politics, whether or not you like the outcome, you're going to see democracy at work. and the people of iowa are going to make international news tonight. they're going to affect the course of american politics. not even really the people of iowa as much as the population of a handful of nfl stadiums. with us, with me for the rest of the way, rachel maddow, what are you excited about tonight? >> i'm -- i mean, even if this were a totally predictable night, i would be excited anyway.
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but by rights, if this were a normal year, on the republican side, we would be looking down the barrel of rick santorum winning in iowa tonight. he's next in line, you know. john mccain won after coming in second to george w. bush. mitt romney won after coming in second to john mccain. rick santorum came in second in the 2012 race. he won iowa the last time around. he has spent more time than anybody on the ground in iowa this year. apparently none of the old rules apply. you don't get to be next in line. retail politics doesn't make all the difference. if money was the thing that made all the difference, then jeb bush would be looking at winning iowa tonight. but all the rules are out the window. >> look at you, and it's only 6:00 p.m. eastern time. >> i know. >> we'll be able to light the city by 8:00. to give you a heads-up on time, two hours from now, the doors close in the caucuses. no one in, no one out.
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until we get answers. there are various reporting structures. there are two different ways of counting the vote tonight conveniently between republicans and democrats. we'll get to all of it. suffice to say, donald trump wins tonight, it is an international story. to a lesser extent, if bernie sanders polls what has to be called, given the last few months in american politics, an upset on the democratic side, ditto. but we are in for a remarkable night in american politics. >> absolutely. >> let's go to des moines. our election headquarters there. and our friend chris matthews. who is similarly buzzing about the excitement level. chris? >> well, i'm here in the middle of the whole thing. every reporter we know is out here practically. all the politicians have been right here, within a few feet of where i'm at right now. this morning and all through the day. and i have to tell you, this is going to be a reporter's night, not a predictor's night. this is a night to find out what
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happens as it happens. in the belly of the beast, nobody has any idea who's going to win tonight on either side. brian, you're so right, the possibility of -- i should say the most likely possibility of a political party selecting their candidate for president is as of tonight dronld trump, if he wins the fight out here in the iowa caucuses. if he wins here, you can see him breezing his way through any number of primaries and caucuses from here on out. because this is the toughest place for him. it's evangelical country, home-schooling country. so it's a huge win. if hillary clinton wins out here, pretty much the same, although she faces a very tough time in new hampshire next week. but after that, she could have pretty good sailing. so we might see both parties take long strides toward picking their nominees op the first go. i just want to say from our end out here, brian, we're going to have a lot of print reporters joining us throughout the evening. the best reporters out here covering all here in the
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political capital of iowa, des moines. we'll get them to you as soon as they've got a scoop. >> the best thing you just said was, it's a reporter's night, and not a predictor's night. we talked about this last night. let's go there again. what does this do to the multi-million-dollar prediction industry? we see them every week night, we see them every sunday morning. it's a huge industry. >> right. and we thought, well, jeb bush looked like a good candidate. i think he spent $15 million out here in iowa. nothing. the great unintended consequence so far, i wish it was as far as it goes, of citizens united, the court decision, has been the animosity driven by that on the left especially. people in the progressive side of things politically are so ripped about citizens united, and the chance to spend unlimited private money on picking a candidate, that they're roaring back with raising money for people like bernie sanders and hillary clinton and others.
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so ironically, at least in the first go-around, it's a win for the progressives. it's not won the big money elections for the koch brothers and the rest of the singers or anything like that. it's the bernies out there who have said, you know what, we've got to stop this. let's go back to small contributions from regular people. i think that's probably a good victory for democracy. >> at least that's what's been shockingly has kept him so competitive all this time. he's actually spent more money than hillary clinton thus far in the race. none of us could have seen that coming. i think that's absolutely right, chris. joining us here in new york, all night, nicole wallace, and gene robinson. great to have you both here. we're joined in the studio by steve car knacky, who is not allowed to sleep until deep november. steve, what we're all wondering about, hard to put your finger on ahead of time, but we know it will be critical, is the turnout, how many people will show up. >> it's the biggest cliche in
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politics. it comes down to turnout. it is totally true tonight. if you want to know who's going to win either one of these contests, you have to know how many penal are actually going to show up. let's start on the democratic side. historically this is how many penal turn out for these things. this is obama, this is clinton, this was historic. this was 240,000 people. nobody expects they're going to be close to that tonight. the question is, how close will they get. why is that significant? take a look at this. this is from patrick murray, a pollster, part of our decision desk here at nbc. he looks at the possibility. now, remember, 240,000 is the -- oops, i did that wrong. you'll have a few of these mistakes tonight. 240,000. that is the all-time high. the question is, how close do we get. if you get 110,000, hillary clinton ahead of bernie sanders by five points. if you jump it up to 150,000, we
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have another race. move it to 200,000, we have a ball game. we have basically a dead-even race. the difference between 5, 3 and 1 is turnout. this is more dramatic on the republican side. average turnouts in the past, the last time around, this was also a high, 121,000 on the republican side. that was the record. here's the thing, everybody expects that record will be broken tonight. the question is, how much. look at this. if it's a littl bit, if it's 130,000, remember, 121, that's your record. if it's a little higher, 130, we have a dead-even race. donald trump, ted cruz. that's ted cruz's base. then we've got 170,000. we've got casual voters, first-time voters. donald trump pulls ahead by seven points. let's go for astronomical turnouts. those who never participated, they show up tonight. you get 200,000 on the republican side. you set a record by a landslide
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and donald trump gets a landslide. look at that. a tie race at 130,000. a trump route at 200,000. when we say it all comes down turnout, we're not just talking cliches tonight. >> that is spectacular. obviously this is projecting from -- this is extrapolating from previous experience, based on what people are telling pollsters they're going to do. nobody knows exactly what people are going to do inside those caucuses until they're in there. basically, steve, what you're saying is if democrats match their massive 2008 turnout, bernie can win. and if republicans improve on their 2012 numbers, which everybody thinks they're going to do, it's going to be tight unless there's a giant turnout in which donald trump's going to win. >> if you look at the democratic side, first time voters, young people, political independents, they don't usually participate. but they are sanders base in this thing. >> looking back at the turnout numbers on the distribute side, to see them double from 2000 to
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2004, the double again from 2004 to 2008, they're not going to double again. but the size of that number is going to be everything. >> because these are relatively small numbers. we're talking about, you know, the total number of people who vote tonight will be less than.01 of 1% of the u.s. population. these are small numbers. so, yes, in a year where everybody's enthusiastic, the numbers can double. you just can't predict it. >> nicole wallace recently went on bill maher. i understand it was late at night, hbo, your feelings come out in a different way. you talked about the stages of grief and acceptance that you have approached a donald trump -- >> i'm with my friends here. >> where are you on -- >> since we're starting here, i'll give you the honest scoop. i am an establishment republican. we have to wear stickers. so we all have to identify ourselves.
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when we leave down the corridor and go to des moines, this is where i was yesterday and today, we have to identify ourses. unfortunately folks like the cruz crowd pick us out. but anyway, what the establishment has sort of concluded, if i may speak for the stan lishment tonight, is they could live with a president trump or nominee trump a lot easier than a nominee in ted cruz. that ted cruz's lack of civility for his colleagues, not just in the senate, i mean, that is well known. but go back to the bush campaign, where he was just his ambition was unchecked. it's something that makes republicans, and i think the only reason this matters is because the entire election cycle is about a complete rejection of the republican establishment. the reason it matters is because trump has turned it into a weapon, that he's wielding against cruz, with great success. every time trump attacks cruz, had e -- he goes through the oh,
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canada thing, lacking to get along with people, and turns it into a strength that he's evolved on issues and he can make a deal. so the fact that trump has turned cruz's ideological purity which should be an asset in iowa among the 120,000 to 150,000 people who typically turn out into not only a vulnerability, but a way to sew up the turnout model, that he triumphs. you have to give trump credit for creativity. >> in the terms of putting it that way, collegiality and civility would be such a deal breaker on the ted cruz nomination. that trump seems like a good idea to the establishment. >> right. >> really, like him not being a nice guy is a bigger deal than policy differences between these two? >> that's why iowa is so important. in iowa, it is not. iowa, they chose rick santorum,
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ideological purity, among evangelicals. that trump has the potential to defeat cruz, where those are two defining issues for voters, is a revelation to me. >> trump specific issue to needle him on which is ethanol. which is also important. >> governor brand said today, the governor of iowa, we talked about when he sort of casually said, anybody but cruz, he really created a bigger political earthquake in the state than sarah palin's endorsement of trump, which came on the same day, and sort of dominated the national news. in the state, i think the longest serving governor in u.s. history -- >> he knows the iowa electorate like nobody else. >> his campaign, great news. terry branstatd said pick anybody but cruz. >> not one national or local political figure could have
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anticipated this is what we would have been talking about, say, a year ago. it is remarkable. we'll take a quick break. when we come back, we're going to talk about donald trump's journey to get to tonight, whether or not he's in first or second place coming out of iowa. >> we have to win in iowa. a lot of people say, donald, just say do well in iowa. i say, i can't do that. i really want to win. >> everyone gathered here literally millions of americans are counting on you. >> i think iowans would vote for me. >> trump is doing what politicians do. politicians do what is politically expedient. >> we feel good about our campaign. we're fighting hard, working hard. >> i've had a lot of experience in looking and learning about what it takes to get things done in washington. >> you are asking the people of iowa here to start you off on nothing short of a political revolution.
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>> is that right? [ cheers and applause ]
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this is the day we take our country back. remember that. this is the day we take our country back. so i've got a little notice, in case you see the security guys. the security guys said, mr. trump, there may be some people in the tomatoes in the audience. if you see somebody with a bag of tomatoes, just knock the crap out of them. i promise you, i will pay for the legal fees, i promise. i promise. >> that was today. that was donald trump. when he says security guys, one would presume he's talking about the united states secret service. >> advising your supporters that they should beat the -- it's an unusual year. >> in effect, another day on the
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campaign trail for donald trump. kate snow is with us, at least 50 feet away from us here in the newsroom with a look at how we got here, this unlikely ride of mr. trump. >> we're going to look at the phenomenon that is trump. here is a number that really matters. i want to point it out. in december, our poll among republicans found that 40% said donald trump is telling it like it is. 37% of republicans said he's raising important issues despite his language. and 16%, only 16% find him insulting. that helps explain how he has survived through all those controversial moments, when pundits said he had gone too far. >> i don't think i've made mistakes. whenever people say i make mistakes, my polls go up. >> now the race to the white house. billionaire donald trump combining his first campaign
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speech with his first controversy. >> when mexico brings their people, they're bringing crime, they're rapists, and some i assume are good people. >> he said he owes senator john mccain no apologies. >> he's a war hero because he was captured. i like people who weren't captured. >> appearing to make fun of a reporter's disability. >> i don't know what i said. >> look at that face, trump is quoted as saying. would anyone vote for that? >> there was blood coming out of her eyes. >> how stupid are the people of iowa. >> donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states. >> "the des moines register" calling on trump to, quote, pull the plug on his boviating side show. >> i don't think i've made any mistakes. i'm sure i will at some point. >> despite or maybe because of those comments, trump's popularity has grown with
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republicans. if you look at the general electorate, 41% say his campaign statements are insulting. important to note, if trump wins the caucus tonight, he will be the first candidate from either party ever to win iowa without a single senator, without a single congressman or congresswoman or sitting governor endorsing him. >> kate snow on this unlikely journey to where we get to tonight. we promised news, traffic and weather. we'll be looking at weather, because a quick check of the radar show we're already having precipitation, some of it frozen, as far west as council bluffs in iowa. the weather is traveling down i-80 from west to east. so in effect here, as people are arriving, or as people are deciding to go out the door, to go and caucus, we've had a blizzard watch in effect for two days in iowa. weather's going to be a factor tonight. you see des moines at the center of the target there, where 80 and 35 come together. chris matthews is there with
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friends of ours. chris? >> right. and brian and rachel, it's almost 48 degrees here, it's almost balmy. steve, you ran the john mccain campaign, steve schmidt. you know how to win a general election, or not win one. you know how to do this. trump, like a one-man takeover of the republican party. if he wins tonight. >> if you look at the republican party, the republican party's lost the popular vote in five out of the last six elections. you look at the states where democrats have won six out of the last six elections. they stand at 242 electoral votes. look at the states where they've won five out of six. 282, with 270 necessary for victory. republicans look at donald trump as a prospective nominee. they see someone who has the potential to break outside this box, the republicans have found themselves in, able to compete with blue collar union democrats in michigan and wisconsin and
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ohio. somebody as we were talking during a break who could appeal to someone in south philly. who can appeal in the new york suburbs. somebody who can get the republicans up above 1% with the african-american vote. it's important to remember, african-american votes clock in at 10%, 11%. barack obama, of course, helped reduce that to about 1%. donald trump certainly, when you talk about the african-american vote, you can see donald trump breaking into the teens with that vote share. he can unwind perhaps better than any of these other republican candidates. >> which is a peeling to voters? african-americaners? >> character, personality, celebrity. donald trump talks about building infrastructure. this is somebody who's from new york. he's from a momentum ulti-ethni. he's brash and strong. i think he's comfortable being around a lot of different types of people. >> let's talk about your party. this is the kind of thing that the democratic party never does
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is go outside the political world and find a candidate so they can win. they did it back in '52 with general eisenhower. and then you go back to wellke, and before that, they used to go to generals in the past. is your party, you make it sound like the establishment is logically saying, we can't win within the usual structure base of our party, we have to go outside to a hero. is that right? >> well, i'm not sure that donald trump classifies as a hero, but i do think he does this. the republican party was the dominant presidential party for most of the 19th century into the first half of the 20th century. the party of the north and the west, after the civil rights legislation is signed, lbj signs it, there's exactly three republicans elected to federal office in the country. i think two from maryland, one from delaware. we come 20 years later, 1988, the republican party's become
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the nation's southern party, and it's lost the popular vote in five out of the last six elections. the southern party could be the congressional party. but never the presidential party. so you have a brash new yorker who has the ability to reinvigorate, i think, the republican brand in the northeast, parts of the country decimated by globalization where the manufacturing base has been shipped off offshore. donald trump departures from a policy perspective from republican orthodoxy. he can be an anti-iraq war candidate running against hillary clinton. carrying interests saying we shouldn't have a lower tax rate for people working in the financial services industry, paying a lower rate than secretaries. and free trade. he's not a free trader. he's saying we're getting the shaft and that resonates with the working people. >> you're saying he could go to the left on war, trade and other issues? he could go to the left of hillary clinton if she's the nominee? >> i think he can do in a general election what he's done
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in the republican primary, which is fight asymmetrically and unpredictably. >> i think this is the voice of i think republican reason, and rationalizing that trump may well win the nomination tonight. i think it's a development in the last couple of weeks. >> if steve is right and donald trump gets the nomination, it will be a blow to the prediction industry and pundit industry. we've all been watching the republican party watch how far right they can get. if they pick a nominee, who is going to go left on those issues that steve just listed, it means all the pundits over the last five years, seven years, eight years, is worth about as much as you think it's worth right now. we have got a lot ahead tonight. there are about 2,000 caucus sites all over iowa. 3 million people in the state. about 2,000 places in the state where people are going to be meeting tonight to talk about who they want as their respective party's nominee for president.
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bernie sanders says that if he wins in iowa tonight, it will be one of the biggest political upsets in the modern history of our country. we'll look at how that might happen, when we come back. stay with us. >> this was probably a tough call for you between ted cruz and donald trump. >> it wasn't tough. >> really? >> no, it wasn't tough. i had supported ted cruz in his run for senate. there out of texas. and when i endorsed him, he was barely a blip on the radar screen down there. i want to keep him in the senate and i want donald trump to be our president. every person
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is an undecided vote. every single person, i don't care if they're dressed head-to-toe in donald trump regalia. >> that is real life politics tonight in iowa. as very shortly here, we're going to have the first results of campaign 2016. before the break, rachel talked about the 2,000 caucus sites across the state. one of them is also one of the largest indoor spaces in all the state of iowa, the field house at the university of iowa. jacob is there for us tonight. jacob? >> reporter: hey, brian. by the looks of things in here right now, you wouldn't know this is about to be one of the most important nights in american politics. a little cheerleading going on back here. a basketball game over here.
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on this side we have a badminton match. here in the far corner of the field house, built in 1927, is carla smith, she's the caucus chairperson for precinct number 3 in iowa city. she's the one that's going to run the whole show here at 7:00 p.m. when the doors close. when you talk to people in iowa about the caucus, first in the nation, the most important presidential contest, the first one so far, even when you talk to them, these things are so complex, so confusing, even they can't explain it. so allow me to do it myself. take a look at this. a caucus is, let's just say it, kind of a strange way to pick a president. iowa isn't the only state to use some form of the caucus system. but it goes first. on iowa's caucus day, election day is more like election hour. at 7:00 p.m., whether at a school, legion hall, church, government building or another location, you have to show up in person at one of 1,086 precincts to participate. what you do once you're inside
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the caucus depends on whether you're a republican or a democrat. the republican caucus process is pretty straightforward. you walk in, you write the name of your candidate on a piece of paper, you hand it in, ballots are counted, a winner's announced and delegates are awarded. if you're a democrat, caucuses is sort of a game of musical chairs. caucusgoers literally break into groups for their candidate, or to an area for undecided voters. the percentage each candidate gets is calculated, and the candidate support is deemed viable within the vast majority of caucus locations, getting 15% support or more. those who doesn't make the cut, can move to another category. the process repeats until all remaining candidates are viable. then delegates are awarded. so it bears repeating, all-time high turnout for the iowa caucus
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was 2008. i'm a civics geek like you, rachel, 15% when president obama ran for the first time. they're thinking that we could see maybe a match to that this time around with donald trump, bernie sanders, all the excitement. people are starting to trick will in here at the field house. back to you guys. >> jacobs, in terms of people turning out for these things tonight, do you already need to be registered as a republican or registered as a democrat before you show up tonight? or can you do that on site when you show up? >> reporter: no, you don't. iowa is one of the states that has same-day voter registration, which is why some people think, and i've actually talked to a voter that fits in this category, you might see people who have first choice donald trump turn to bernie sanders, showing up at a democratic caucus and deciding to file in the democratic column. that's why everybody thinks this might be so up in the air. >> jacob, thank you for that. if you're following along in the graphics, in the unlikely event of a water landing, your seat
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cushion can be used as a flotation device. all times are central, when we say 7:00, we mean 8:00 eastern. another break, our live coverage of iowa caucus night continues right after this. >> young people are really upset, especially as they're just getting into the political scene. and they're seeing a lot of the ways things are managed. they're not happy about it. >> it's important. i want to stand up for my candidate. >> basically you have to put your hand up in public and say, i am for this candidate. that's really something. that's just such hands-on public democracy.
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the conference call. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. the only problem with conference calls: eventually they have to end. unless you have the comcast business voice mobile app. it lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. i've never felt so alive. make your business phone mobile with voice mobility. comcast business. built for business. we are back. doors closed in the iowa caucuses less than 90 minutes from now. whatever happens tonight, exactly where totals are concerned, bernie sanders will
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have impacted this race already. and of course, going forward into new hampshire, his path gets a little different as we go into the american south. kate snow joins us, however, to talk about the movement that has started up just this year. >> brian, we've been talking all day about how popular bernie sanders is. our latest polls show an iowa race that's too close to call. you think back to a year ago, and clinton was ahead of bernie sanders, remember this, by 61 points. she was ahead 68 to 70. the idea that he would even get within 25 points was laughable. we thought we would take a look back at how so many people came to feel the bern. >> let me thank all of you. thought it would be a small crowd today. wrong again. thank you all very much! in case you haven't noticed, a lot of people are here. >> bernie sanders is drawing huge crowds. 25,000 people in portland, oregon, last night. >> whoa!
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this is by far the largest crowd! >> bernie sanders has gone from way behind to on fire. >> your friends in the media would have told you nine months ago that i was a fringe candidate, not a serious candidate. >> if you raise the issues on the hearts and minds of the american people, if you try to put together a movement which says, we have got to stand together as a people, that is winning elections. that's where the american people are. on monday night, we are poised to make history. join the political revolution! thank you all very much! >> chris hayes asked sanders yesterday about the surge. sanders credited young people. he said it's all about the young people who want to be part of the political process this year. rachel, brian? >> kate, speaking about the crowd sizes in iowa, and what you think about if you're a liberal democrat is, howard dean in 2004. it turned out young people.
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got people from all over the country to go canvas for him in iowa. and then on caucus night in iowa, before the scream and all that, he got, what was it, three counties? so the question is, whether or not those big numbers turn into caucusgoers. and at that point, you know, you can't really take the campaign for its word. the campaign says, yes, we've turned that enthusiasm into operational political capital, but we won't know that until we start getting results tonight. >> and what happens when we pull into south carolina. that is a huge question mark. iowans and vermonters are very similar in their political makeup. >> that's right. before south carolina, though, of course, it is new hampshire. steve kornacki, i want to talk to you about new hampshire. the latest new hampshire democratic poll has bernie sanders up something like 20 points. he seems to have a very resilient, very big lead in new hampshire. if those numbers hold up and he wins in new hampshire, that
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changes the stakes for him for tonight. winning both of the first two states would be titanic. >> yeah. i mean, it would put him in position that no one has ever been in, and then lost the democratic nomination. conversely, it would put hillary clinton in a position that no nominee has ever been in. and won the nomination. this is obviously a big if, but if bernie sanders wins tonight, the latest nbc polling out of new hampshire, new hampshire eight days from now. bernie sanders is already 19 points ahead there. very hard to see how he would take a win tonight and blow this lead. if that happens, if he wins tonight, if he follows it up with new hampshire, gets the 1-2 iowa-new hampshire punch, look at the company that would put him in. three times we've seen this on the democratic side where a candidate has won iowa and new hampshire. john kerry did it in 2004. al gore did it against bill bradley in 2000. jimmy carter challenged by ted
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kennedy. they all won the nomination. al gore won the nomination without losing a single state. so it doesn't mean if bernie sanders wins the first two obviously that he automatically wins the nomination. but the idea that his campaign has that our calculus about this entire process will change if he wins the first two. look at what history says. hillary clinton would be in unprecedented territory trying to win the nomination. every nominee in the moderate era has won one of these. iowa, or new hampshire, there is one exception you guys can probably see it. we have the asterisk there. 1992, bill clinton was the nominee. he did not win iowa or new hampshire. the reason we have the asterisk, that was an uncontested caucus in 1992. no media coverage, no campaigning, no money, no one turned out. so we don't really count that. every year these have been contested. you've had to win one to win the nomination. if hillary clinton loses tonight, then loses new hampshire, she will have to do something we've never seen before. >> imagine having a caucus with
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no media coverage. that just sounds antithetical, doesn't it? let's go on out to des moines. chris matthews is there with a guy who for 34 years at "the des moines register" was the man to see. he has since defected to southern illinois university. chris? >> well, as i said, we're going to bring in the best print reporters in town covering this election. that's, of course, leading off with david. every time something does something like could knakornackk of the tallest guy always winning the presidential election until he didn't. george mcgovern beat richard nixon. i'm sorry, he lost to nixon. the only one in massachusetts, in the district of columbia. even though he's the tallest guy. i don't think it passes a predictor. maybe a prologue. what do you think? maybe iowa is the predictor in the sense that 42% of the state is single when they vote.
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43% say they're socialists or comfortable with that tag. and you can vote out here at the age of 17. i wonder if that makes it a good sample of the democratic electorate. >> yes, absolutely. iowa as a state does not represent the country. but the people who show up here at the caucuses tonight look an awful lot like the people you're going to see on the floor of the democratic convention. they're activists, they represent their party. the same kind of constituencies are showing up tonight as we see at the national convention. >> across the hall? not just in the delegation? >> in the delegation that iowa sends, and on the national convention -- >> let me ask you about that. bernie sanders, we know the whole persona. he's 74. he looks 74. he has that wonderful brooklyn accent which some people like, and other people don't know what to make of it. he's sort of a tony bennett figure, that young people like. do you think that will sell across the south, for example? >> no.
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i think he'll have troubles in the south. just about any democrat will have trouble in the south generally. >> do you think he'll do well in california? >> sure. the question is, what's he going to do in a half a dozen, or ten battleground states? that's the question that voters here have with hillary clinton. each one of these candidates has something that these activists, democrats like. they also have baggage, things they don't like. hillary clinton's unfavorable pretty high. people worry about bernie sanders being too far left. the socialist thing. >> are they worried about his prospects in the general or do they not think that far ahead? >> some of the activists do. these are people who care about their party so they're going to say, yeah, i want to -- >> i want to ask you one last thing which is bothering somebody like me. i've been coming out here since '88. the way people decide here at the last minute, we were talking to women, middle-aged i think you could say in the lobby of the hotel, four out of five said
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i've not made up my mind. is that possible. >> yes. this is not a voting booth. these are neighborhood meetings. and you're going into a meeting, you're going to talk to your friends. some of the determinants of a political attitudes of your friends and neighbors. >> when you go to a caucus, are you directed -- >> you can have ideas of your own and opinions. if i run into somebody who knows more about politics and i respect them, i might change my vote. democrats especially are weighing, clinton and all her pluses and minuses and -- >> iowa voters are voters that care what other people think? >> they're caucusgoers. >> that's what you're saying? >> yes. >> not like going into a voting booth and deciding personally. you have your friends, oh, he, she's with bernie. >> that's exactly what happens. social media, right now, all over the state, i call it the battle of the thumbs. we've not seen that before. you know, get young people out. >> it's not a private ballot?
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>> no. not on the democratic side. >> rachel, i think it's a big deal when you have your friends and peers out there seeing how you vote, being able to go home for the rest of your life and say, don't blame me, you voted for that guy, you didn't vote for my guy. >> nobody can hide behind the privacy of the private voting booth in iowa. it's interesting, 9% of iowans are undecided. when you look at how people are proefg going to the caucuses, 45% of republicans, 30% of democrats say heading into the caucuses, they may have a preference. but they're persuadable. there's going to be movement and persuasion, there's going to be peer pressure. it is a community decision in iowa in a way that, you know, it is another caucus state. but not in the way it has a huge impact on the country. about an hour and ten minutes or so until the doors close at the iowa caucuses. we're going to be here all night. this is very exciting. stay with us. we'll be right back. >> we have come a long, long way.
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in the last nine months. and my guess is today there was a poll out today that had us a little bit ahead, a poll out the other day had secretary clinton ahead. but what every poll tells us, and what every political pundit understands is the following -- we will win tonight if the voter turnout is high. [ cheers and applause ]
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welcome back. on caucus night in iowa. we're about to do weather. why? because weather affects turnout in iowa. and it's precipitating in some parts. dave price is in the weather center. dave, we keep hearing it's a mild night in iowa. despite the precipitation. does that mean cold air is going to come blowing in there tonight? >> you know what, a tale of two states, brian. mild air, you're right, typically this time of year it's much colder. keep in mind in the northern half of the state, temperatures are going to drop. and on a night like this, this is where weather forecasters and political forecasters are working together, actually. the precipitation beginning to roll on into iowa at this point. and what we're looking at most likely is areas to the south and the east. seeing not much in the form of snow and wind, but as you head to the north and to the west,
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that's where the roughest weather is going to be. this is all about turnout. we don't anticipate much of the weather is going to affect that tonight. however, we have precipitation beginning to work its way in to the southwestern piece of the state right now, and it's going to roll in overnight. getting out tomorrow morning, a problem for many folks. a combination of snow and wind and it only gets worse over the next 24 to 36 hours. >> a lot of our colleagues are going to have an extra day stay in iowa. >> get the magic mountain. >> nicole wallace, eugene robinson have rejoined us. welcome back. >> thank you. >> anything you've seen that -- >> what's funny about the weather, i asked the governor of iowa this morning, i said, are you worried weather's going to affect turnout? he was like, this isn't weather to iowans. i think we'll talk about the weather more than a person who intends to caucus will take the weather. >> let's be specific about that, though. i was saying earlier there's like 2,000 caucus sites.
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there are about 1,600 precinct sites. and there are multiple caucus sites, right. there really are 2,000 different places people are going out. that means that even though it's a rural state, nobody's that far from their caucus site. nobody's having to traverse the state. it's a local community caucus. you don't have to go far. >> it isn't a phenomenon in iowa. >> six to 12 inches tomorrow. that's going to happen tomorrow. >> assuming the snow comes in from the west, then that northwest part of the state is very conservative. >> i so love listening to you talk about weather. >> i think it's fantastic. >> another thing they have in common with vermonters. >> and they're all going to be fine. nicole, let me ask you, because i know that you still have good contacts in republican land. when you were talking to the
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candidates, you're talking to their campaigns, just the staffers, are you seeing anything interesting in terms of who's confident and who's not? they've all got internal data. >> they have the supreme confidence in their organization and ground game. they have made a full-time endeavor out of planning for tonight. this is not like a state that opens up the polls and you vote all day. this is an event tonight. they've spent many, many months, more than anyone on the republican side, actually, i understand hillary to have done all this work as well, but they are supremely confident in the outcome because of their confidence in the -- >> they're confident but not cocky. >> they put a number on it, too. they said the turnout can be historic, not just too historic. >> we are just about an hour away from the point where we will close the doors and begin
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learning our first -- >> we're back in just a moment. >> are you going to caucus? >> heck, yes. >> i'm for ted cruz. >> you're supporting senator sanders? >> yeah. >> why? >> i like his ideals. >> i'm firmly for jeb bush. >> carly fiorina. >> are you going to caucus? >> i will, absolutely. >> okay. >> as long as the snow doesn't get me down.
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7:00 p.m. in the east, 6:00 central. the people in iowa tonight will change the political balance in the united states. >> heading into iowa sometimes you kind of know what's going to happen. and the suspense is what's going to happen next. but it's not the situation this year. there is legitimate suspense on both sides. it really is going to depend on how many people go out,ot


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