tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBCW February 1, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PST
it's exciting to look at those people. we have impressions that it's big, but we don't know. >> we a know a good number you have are on the web while watching and listening to us. we know there's a lot of information out there. we have just cranked 8:00 p.m. in the east coast. it is safe to report the earliest earliest, again, be very suspicious of what we call the first wave data. this is officially for use. after 8:00 p.m., this is based on very early entrance polls. this is our first look at the boards as we call them, indicating a race, obviously, too early to call. trump, cruz and rubio it appears will in the top three. there is an indication of a trump lead in this race.
reportable after 8:00 p.m. eastern. too early to call. on the democratic side, nbc iowa is calling this race, too early to call, based on very early entrance polls. there's an indication of a clinton lead in this race. rachel. >> this is based on entrance poll data. there's still very little entrance poll data. obviously, nbc news makes these characterizations base ed on ve careful analysis of the data th exists. there's no reason to extrapolate more than we ought to. again, the characterization by nbc news is it's too early to call and that there is an indication of a hillary clinton lead. if that sounds familiar to you, it's because at this time after the caucus doors closed in 2008, there was also an indication of
a hillary clinton lead. at that point, looking at that early entrance poll data in 2008, we all know that she went on not only not to win iowa in 2008. she didn't come in second in iowa in 2008. she came in third to both barack obama and john edwards. >> chuck todd is with us from des moines. all of this bears reporting. this is the conversation we had in the past half hour. that's what our graphic says. that's what we're safely to report. this is too early to call. any data is based on a kind of pooled effort of what our called entrance polls. a form is handed to hundreds of caucus goers across iowa. they are asked to fill it out and deposit that form in a box. by nature, they are going into an event, these caucuses where
minds will be changed and where caucus goers can and will be lobbied. >> that's right. i think, look, there's a few things i'm looking at just in the entrance poll data that we've seen. it's the ideological make up. if sanders was going to have a good night, it was the liberal. if trump was to have a good night it was less conservative. the democratic electorate looks the same. so far, and it's early, the republican electorate looks less conservative in iowa here in '08 and '12. that confirms why we're seeing trump has a slight lead. that would be a big development if you sum up. the people who describe
themselves as very conservative or whatever conservative. in iowa, very conservative leads somewhat conservativconservativ. in this early data the conser conservative there. trump probably did get independents. that was the big wow moment. if you're trump right now, you have to feel good this electorate is a little less conservati conservative. >> we're looking at grainy video of marco rubio arriving at one of the caucus locations. most people who caucus will hear from someone representing the candidate. some people who kcaucus will her from the candidate. >> some will hear from somebody related to the candidate. the trump family, for instance, is spanned out all over.
daughters, sons and his wife. there will be different ways they do that. that's what makes, particular on the republican side, the democrat side, it's not just hearing the pitches. you have the different gamesmanship and to explain why we say clinton had an early lead. last time too, but the obama people inside the caucuses had a better strategy. they had different ways of helping edwards, hurting clinton. it's different ways you can deny a delegate to clinton, at the time. that's what we're going to be watching there. that's why the entrance polls on the democratic side really, really are about the most useless thing you can have other than finding out how many first time caucus goers are showing up. >> let's go over to andrea mitchell in des moines following the story for us. >> reporter: the clinton campaign is trying to do everything it can to show that
it has organized. that it's not going to have a repeat of history. you and chuck and rachel have been talking about what happened eight years ago when we were with hillary clinton. she described it in her book as excutiating that night when she lot not only to barack obama but to john edwards. they have put out how much they have changed their operation. they have hired a lot of obama people who know iowa and knew iowa better than she did. they had her start her campaign in iowa. drive to iowa. notably have a listening tour. talk to small groups of people. she's been thanking people at the rallies saying thank you iowa for all that you've taught me. this is trying to show her gratitude. she's trying to be humble in this way also. this is the iowa way. she's trying to show she adapted. this is not the clinton machine.
again, history could repeat itself. bernie sanders has the passion. we have to see whether his supporters not only out number her but out number her in the right places. if they all show up on college campuses, that will not do the trick. they need to go home to their precinct. it's like a pancake. you can't have it stacked high. you have to have it spread out. the one thing that college kids for weeks and weeks have been saying this is the heart versus the head. they couldn't decide. we have one young man who i met said i can't decide. i don't know. i believe in him. i'm passionate about him but i think she can get things done. he came back and we interviewed him today and he decided only today to go with hillary clinton because he thinks she has the experience and get things done. other people think her experience, as rachel referenced, help vote for the iraq war and the experience in foreign policy requires a different kind of judgment. this has been really hard fought campaign.
what was stunning last night is the number of dollars, the fact that bernie sanders raised 20 million dollar in january. he's got cash on hand of more than $20 million. if he wins here, he'll get momentum going into new hampshire. that's his home base. he's got a 30-point lead. then he has the money to keep going and battle herself. he still has the money to keep going. if he doesn't one it will be a lot harder to get the momentum. new hampshire is great scircuit breaker for him. she needs this victory tonight. that's why this is such a big test of the hillary clinton campaign. >> andrea mitchell this des moines. interesting that the campaign is bragging on how hard they have tried to win iowa and what a good game they have run there. that's part of the case they need to make to democratic voters nationwide that even if bernie sanders beats them in the first two states they need to show they are good at
campaigning and she will be a good contender in the general election if she gets the nomination. they have to contest it on those grounds. let's go to chris hayes. he's been at one of these sites that has multiple caucuses going on. what are you hearing about turn out on the republican side or the democratic side? >> i'm in a room right now that's a republican caucus. it's upstairs from the room we were in before. the downstairs room was higher than they expected. we heard about 60 to 70 people. there's way more than that. the caucus has not started yet because there are still voek f checking in outside. you can see it's standing room only. it's a room not designed to fit this many people. it's rather hot. people are just about ready to get this thing started and watching my words carefully. you can tell turn out is high and very soon, as soon as they
can get the folks processed through the line they will start the process that's a little more straightforward and laborious. people will give their pitches and will fill out ballots. they will be on their way. downto downstairs it's going to be a while. >> just to be clear, we have been saying that the doors will close at 7:00 local time. that's about ten minutes to go. we still have live shots of people checking in. the idea is now that the doors are no longer open to anybody else who arrives on site. people who got in the door before 7:00, local time, they will wait until all those people are checked in and processed and not start until they're in the room? is that how this goes? >> that's right. it's like you'll hear reports of in voting on election day people are online when the polls close, those folks online get to go through and vote. here the doors are closed to the building. no new people could come in.
there's still a line inside the building and to get into this room and they will process everyone who is here and once they get everyone processed, that's when they will start the caucus. the reason we're able to broadcast live is because the caucusing has not started yet. that will be the case throughout this building because the turn out is high, it's taking a while to get this show on the road. >> chris hayes in des moines inside gop caucus. we're joined by in the studio by nicole wallace. we go over to the board and steve who has all the asterisks. >> they are offering us clues ar possibly clues on the republican side. two things to highlight that we're seeing right now in these numbers. one of them might be encouraging for donald trump. the other may be a bit more for ted cruz. this is one question that's asked in the entrance poll is
are you a first time caucus goer? this is key for donald trump. people coming to his events that don't participate, would they turn out. there round of data tells us that 43% are first timers. the last time in 2012, the number was 38%. it's higher than we had this 2012. 2012 was record turn out. all time for republicans. you have more first timers this time. already consider you have repetitive caucuses in 2008 and 2012. to have an increase in the number of first timers after two straight competitive caucuses, that is a potentially significant statistic. the other one to tell you about that we're seeing that might be encouraging for ted cruz, we always talk about the number of evangelical christian who is are voting. tonight, that number again, according to this initial data on the republican side is 62%.
what does that mean? in 2012, when rick santorum tied mitt romney by going after the evangelical vote, they were 57% of the republican electorate. in 2008, when mike huckabee won the caucuses going away, evangelicals were 60%. according to this national entrance poll data, we have gone over that number. we would have a record number of evangelicals participating tonight. again, all of the caveats, this is the initial number. >> sanders and trump need first timers. they need the excitement. >> they need first timers in the case of sanders, the many young people who haven't caucused before. in the case of trump. these tend to be people who have become disaffected with the political process and haven't been that involved with it.
he seems to have really energized a lot of these people. >> the evangelical number is stunning. the donald trump campaign is excited. if all the first timers are evangelical voters, they may be good news for ted cruz. >> the cruz folks said if they get to 60% evangelicals, that was a bit of a firewall for them. the trump tell me will tell you they have made the sale. they were seeing stuff in their polling and in public polling. >> late in the game. >> i spent some time yesterday with people very in touch with this group in the state of iowa, and they said it's a complete falsehood that evangelicals vote off some mystery set of
criteria. they said they want to win just as separadesperately as the res the party. i would be careful with that evangelical data. just because it's above where the cruz camp said they needed it, we're reporting at 62%. that does not necessarily point to any sort of certain good night for cruz. >> this is live pictures from inside st. francis church. donald trump, his wife sitting in the front row. this is a caucus and presumably we're waiting for the call to order and perhaps a prayer to start the proceedings. donald trump is here. we saw marco rubio earlier. that's in clive, iowa, just west of des moines. this is back to live pictures of the rubio appearance at his caucus in what appears to be another school gym. >> i wish that we could invent
mythical data that told you whether or not caucuses where the candidate him or herself speaks. >> probably knowable. >> what if people attribute to nobody says yes, i'm buying this particular mop because i like that mop ad. it's very hard to get to what people attribute their vote to. >> i think joey would disagree. >> fair enough. >> that was my first thought too. >> how do you pick clive? >> how do the candidates get to go anyhow? they're not iowans. >> it's politicking. >> a polling place. >> as the captain making the case. >> this is not run by the secretary of state. this is not run -- these are run
by the parties. the parties can do whatever they want. >> that's true. >> somebody has to stand up and make the case. >> when the candidate makes the case for him or herself, is that magic? >> you might say there's no controlling legal authority. chris matthews in des moines watching it all. >> i'm here with the game changers themselves. i'm looking at this trump picture in the first row. looking quite regal there. >> just an underdog, first time candidate and his wife hoping to make an impression on iowa. >> we don't know who will win tonight. we looked a eed at the entrance. this is like a meteor hitting the earth politically. this is something nobody would have expected. >> it's not just that people didn't expect it and people actively discounted it. when we started hearing he might
run, we said it would never happen. >> where were you in the beginning? >> because we wrote about him in 2012 and said he come closer to running than a lot of people thought, we were both more open to the idea he might do this. >> and do well? >> no. no predictions were offered. it always seemed to me from the time he got in that if you thought about the pat buchanan 1996 constituency, the isolationist, hawkish on trade, hawkish on immigration, there's always been that chunk. there's a growing chunk in the republican electorate. not to be the front-runner from the day he entered to now. >> he has three charactercharac. the message. he also is an entertainer. >> he has a wonderful ability to cut the throat of the guys closest to him as a rival. >> i'd add to that list. it's absolutely part of it. he's able to think about what
happens many steps ahead. if he turns out he's wrong about one of the seven steps ahead to adjust. >> when does he pull back? on the canadian thing, he put the bayonet in and hit squish. you said for months the guy is clean. he's acceptable and he does a 180 on the guy and it works. >> the poll shows that did not matter add much to iowa republican caucus goers as the thing about the loans from goldman sachs. 20% or so, it did bother them. >> 20% is a close one. >> doesn't necessarily have to matter to the voters. as long as it can throw the opponent off the message, he'll keep going with it. his intuitive sense of what gets under the skin. what drives the news cycle. >> to say you're not eligible is the best you can make as a counter argument is i am.
you can't win that argument. >> when did you stop beating your wife? i never beat her in the first place. >> i'm really an american. >> he was a guided missile on jeb bush vulnerabilities and ben carson. it took him a while with cruz. he found the canadian thing. it was the first thing in a totally disciplined ted cruz run. he was disciplined, disciplined. he threw cruz after his game. >> i love being with you guys because you know your history. this is a state that's gone geographic in these caucuses. bob doyle won here twice. it's a good state for someone in the middle of the country. later it became a good state for evangelical. i think this guy has been a meteor here. we're watching the pledge of allegian allegiance. let's watch this for a second. [ applause ]
>> trump is back here assage individual. he doesn't represent a faction. nothing, just him. >> kwhawhat's most amazing aboum and in all the polling is his support comes from all sectors of the republican party. he has evangelical support, tea party support, modest support. he goes across the spectrum. there's nothing like him in the republican party. he's not a faction. >> we'll get back to brian williams now. >> we're going to -- they've been presenting the colors and saying a prayer at st. francis church. we're going to listen in as we believe donald trump gets up and addresses the gop caucus goers
who are gathered there tonight. we're looking live at several different locations. jacob continues in iowa city in the field house at a large caucus location. jacob. >> i'm here with carla smith who is the caucus chair for this caucus location. you just told me before we gathered right here that 327 people you have counted so far. you expected 200ish. >> about 200ish. >> the doors were supposed to close at 7:00. have you been able to close them yet? >> they are closed as far as people but there's still people in line. if they were in line at 7:00. they can come to the doors. there's too many people in lines to get them all through the doors. >> you can't physically close the doors because it's too many people outside. >> how many people once the line got all the way in, how many people would you think are here? >> really? >> over 400?
>> i'm going to say about 400. >> thank you very much. carla has got an incredible job on her hands. she's been running around non-stop. there goes carla. she's got to make sure, not only make sure this thing goes smoothly, but she's got to give a speech to everybody when this thing starts. hope she's drive drinking a lot of water. >> jacob, thank you. i should mention we have a report from katy in iowa saying she's hearing from republican party sources who are saying that it is high turn out all over. this is reporting. but according to katy she says some republican caucus sites have reported running out of registration forms. that's striking. >> we have an embedded journalist of ours at the trump event. you're in st. francis? >> we're here.
donald trump is in the front row right next to his wife. as you can see, packed house. they stopped letting people in. the proceedings are beginning. also, carly fiorina, some of her folks are in the corner. she got some applause when she walked in. lots of excitement here. >> how about that. you're caucus goer at st. francis in west des moines. you have not one but two candidates in your all purpose room. in one corner donald trump and in the other carly fiorina. they're all got to be somewhere. >> there's something like 900 but two to have the candidates are. i know we got basic republican field. to have two of them in one room is amazing.
>> not everyone is in iowa. john kasich is holding a town hall meeting in new hampshire tonight because different campaigns make different choices. we are, going to fit in a break. we'll be back and we will bring you live coverage from nbc these various republican and democratic caucuses under way right now across iowa. you owned your car for four years, you named it brad. you loved brad. and then you totaled him. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends, three jobs... you're like nothing can replace brad. then liberty mutual calls, and you break into your happy dance. if you sign up for better car replacement™, we'll pay for a car that's a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. and feeling good, sort of.n and real,
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the officials doors closing time across iowa. these are both live pictures of caucuses and donald trump is taking the microphone inside the gop caucus. >> every day i hear, we used to win. we don't win with the military. we don't win in the boardrder. we don't win in any way. obama care will be repealed.
we made so many bad decisions. we're giving away $150 billion. we get nothing. we are $19 trillion. the budget that we just approved that got approved in literally hours is worth $2 trillion. it funds everything all of us don't want to see it fund. we're going to strengthen our borders. we'll build a wall. mexico will pay for the wall. i'm the only one that says that. they'll pay for the wall. [ applause ] we are going to bring our country back.
funding, i will funding my own. i'm not going to be told by ford or anybody else what to do. i'm doing the right thing for you. i don't need their money. i don't want their money. i built a great, great company. one of the great companies. one of the greatest assets of the world. i say it because that's the kind of thing our country needs. we're in trouble. we're going to turn it around. we're going to make america great again. thank you all. [ applause ] >> these are not legal gather g gatherin gatherings. these are party gatherings. no restriction on who can speak the donald trump has gotten up to speak to a gop caucus.
it is striking listening to the argument. ronald reagan talked about a shining city on a hill. fdr talked about a new deal for america. everything we are doing is wrong. it's striking. >> title of his book is crippled america. it's striking. he said he sent the cover back because he looked too nice. it's an approach that's very unusual and very unorthodox and very unexpected. it's working in this campaign. it will be interesting to see whether it carries the day in iowa. both are counting on people who have never caucused before. we have some entrance poll data in terms of what's happening with first time caucus goers. how many of them have made it
out. they always tell pollsters they are going to. did they show up? steve has the latest data on that. >> these are numbers that are changing by the minute as we get a bigger sample size here. the latest i can tell you on the democratic side is this issue of are you a first time caucus goer. we talk about how key they would be to bernie sanders. the latest number is 44%. this is moving around a little bit. it was down a few points. we'll see where it ends up. to put that in context, 44% first time caucus goers. that number was 57%. that was the huge turn out that the race got out there. in 2004, it was john kerry and howard dean and john edwards, the number was over 50% then. first time caucus goers. here we are under 50 now.
that could change. right now looking at 44 right not be as high. 17 to 29-year-olds, this is the youngest group they look at. we saw in polling leading up, a gigantic age gap on the democratic side. i can't emphasize that enough. when you were looking at young voters, the margin was overwhelming. clinton over sanders. 17 to 29-year-olds. i guess -- >> we go chris hayes. >> reporter: we are at the site in des moines here.
the people online are waiting to get into that auditorium back there. they are expecting around 250 people. there's 500 people packing that auditorium. bryan is a volunteer. >> we ran out of new registration. i had to run and find some more. these people lined up were stuck in line because we ran out of forms. this is also the form for new voters and for party switches. >> one of the great things about the iowa caucus is you can show up having not registered and just register tonight when you walk in the door. those forms allow people to do that. they ran out of them. this site has seen a lot of heavy turn out. i was listening to steve's entrance polling was verevealin about the proportion of new voters. >> all right. thank you for that from des moines. nicole wallace is with us. >> may be the last time you see
me alive. >> we'll wrap you in bubble wrap and get you home. >> her name in the witness protection program will be bill. i'm hearing from some folks watching the expression take back our country. this is the second or third cycle we've heard it. trump is the latest candidate to use it. where's the country been? who has it? what does it mean? >> i know the analysis is that he's tapped into. i'm totally disagree with it. this feeling that we're in immediate and urgent need of turning around dramatic historic decline. i think you can't divorce it from the promise to completely reverse that decline. his supporters aren't just drawn to him pause he addresses their sentiment about how far we've fallen. he promises to bring them back to a place they long for. i think he's unfair to supporters. his a politician. we should be as harsh as we can
be on his comments because they cross every line i've known of in terms of political decorum and civility and attacks on your opponents and the inhabitant of the white house. what his supporters are drawn to is the other half of the message. it's the promise to make us great and save us from further decline that's brought what we believe to be large numbers out. >> other people have tried to capitalize. that's the businessman, that's the outsider's promise. no politician can do what needs to be done. it has no be a non-politician whether it's carly fiorina or ross perot. you hear that message from outsider candidates. >> that's right. i don't know how you can divorce, take the country back from a promise to kick out 11 million undocumented migrants who, most of whom are latino, a promise to bar muslims from entering the country.
there's a -- there's an element in what he's promising and in whom he's speaking to. >> i'm trying to translate it. what his supporters hear is not just that i will ban muslims. it's and i will keep you safe. it's not that i will build an awesome huge wall, it's i will stop the incompetence of two political party who is have tried to fix immigration. i want to depend his supporters. they are responding to the promise to fix everything that's wrong. not a dissimilar way from what sanders promises in terms of corruption. >> in a best case scenario. >> i have to explain what our viewers are seeing. this is too early to call. note the percentage figure in the upper left. 1% of the results in.
given that, we're looking at cruz, trump, rubio. those of you watching in full screen hd will see on the far right of your screen the rest of the menu. that becomes much more important later on tonight when this becomes a bona fide running order. 1% of the results in. these are ridiculously small numbers because it is ridiculously early in what could be a very long night. here's the democrats. four, a whopping 4% in. our terminology, too early to call. showing hillary clinton 52-47. in a 4% gain. our coverage continues. we'll take break. we'll be right back.
we are back. sporadic returns. caveats all over the place. this is how we put it at 8:00 eastern time based on early polls. trump, cruz and rubio appear to be in the top three. 1% of the raw number in. you see very, very small number returns. this is the early running order in the republican party. three-way at the top. in the democratic race, again,
early indications based on very early entrance polls. those people entering tonight's caucuses. there is an indication of a clinton lead. we're talking about differing counting systems between the parties but you see 8% of the raw in. 53-46. rachel. >> we're going to go to ted davine. he joins us by phone. congratulations thus far. >> thank you. good to be with you. >> i know this is a question you can't answer. i'm going to ask any way. i'm curious as to how you will not answer it. how important is it for you guys to win tonight? >> i feel we have already won. we started off about 50 points behind here. we built a great campaign. bernie got his message out. i think we're connecting with voters. this will be a long process.
we're here to win delegates. we think it's going to be very close. we're getting multiple reports of running out of voter registration. >> we have been getting those reports as well on the democratic side and the republican side. because you did mount such a big operation in iowa because you did, as you said there, you came from 50 plus points behind to tonight. it being too early to call and looking like a very, very close race. do you feel like there's things that the sanders campaign learned in iowa that you didn't know before this started that have changed the way you're going to approach the rest of this race. you have enough money to be in this race for a long time. >> i don't think it will change the way we approach the race. we believe that bernie's message is the most power. it sends too much wealth to the top. he's talking about that not only from the beginning of this campaign but for many years now. we think if we deliver that
message across america, it will resonate like here in iowa. >> in terms of relationship between the two front running democrat candidates. things have become more combative as time has gone on. the contrast that each campaign is drawing about the other candidate. there's nothing wrong with that. whether bernie ends up being the nominee or hillary, are you getting close to a point where it might be hard to reconcile the two sides. i speak as somebody who monitors this as news but somebody who pays attention to the conversation on social media. i feel like it's gotten pretty harsh in tone between sanders supporters and clinton supporters. will you be able to come together when it's time to get a nominee? >> i think so, rachel. i worked for bernie sanders for 20 years. he's never run a negative ad. an ad that attacks the opponent. all the terrible stuff that you see in places and politics. he has a will the of respect for
hillary clinton. he understands, and i believe the clinton campaign people understand as well, we need to have a democratic president. we can't afford to have any of these republicans in the white house. >> tad davine joining us from des moines. enjoy this night. i know this is going to be one of the busier nights of your life. i hope you enjoy it. thank you. >> thank you. >> let's slip back in this caucus we showed briefly to see if we can listen in. a ridiculous number of media, almost one to one ratio with caucus goers. >> everybody gets their own camera. every one is being interviewed or on stand by. it's incredible. i think the shouting is all over. looks like they have made their choices clear and gone home. chris matthews across town in des moines. chris. >> when you're watching that guy
run around that track upstairs in that gym, i was thinking that not everybody's interested in politics. when the allied armies came into paris in 1944, there were people sunbathing along the sand. they hadn't caught up with the news. let's bring in steve schmidt. your party gets bernie sanders in the cross hairs. you get him as the democratic nominee. what kind of a campaign would he face from the republican side? >> bernie sanders is a 74-year-old socialist from vermont who believes the top marginal tax rate should be 84%. he's far from the outside of american politics. he's extraordinarily far to the left of president obama. we had a debate in this country about paying your fair share. fair share being defined as raising the top rates to 39.6%. bernie sanders from a economic vision for the country is not
something that is sellable in the mainstream. democrats, should he be the nominee, will be shallaced. >> how many will he win in. >> i think he wins a handful of states. maybe vermont, california, oregon, washington state. not too many. >> he gets the left coast but not the east coast. >> i don't think he gets the east coast. he doesn't get ohio or pennsylvania. i'm not sure if he gets new york or new jersey. >> a man without a party. he's not part of the establishment. if he wins tonight, will be republican establishment come to grips with him and say we got to live with this guy? >> if he wins tonight, it's very difficult to see the scenario where he loses.
what state does donald trump lose next? he wins tonight, he has a commanding lead in the state of new hampshire. he's a commanding lead in nevada. he has a commanding lead in south carolina. setting himself up to the winner take all states come super tuesday and after. i think the republican leaders look at the potential of a cruz nomination. look at ted cruz and they see somebody who gets 140 electoral votes. leads to a loss of senate and a loss of house. they look at donald trump and see someone with the potential to expand the pool to be able to pick off big parts of the democratic coalition. >> in other words, the rational thinking of republican party is trump's a better bet and you're praying for bernie. >> people say donald trump is a deal maker. he is saying what's necessary to win the nomination. somebody who was pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, wins the state
of iowa. the notion he could slip in that direction but lacks the political dexterity to flip back is hugely underestimated by people who think he can't do that. >> i get your thinking. thank you. back to brian and rachel. >> thank you. all the while we're aware people are watching the changing numbers either full screen or at the bottom of the screen. very, very early. we don't advise buying or selling any stock based on this. again, the number to look at, just under 30 delegates there is the percentage of returns in. 3% in. the finishing order has gone back and forth here. these are very early numbers. we have to scoot to break. our live coverage continues on the other side.
we're back. there's a distinction in our wording. we have gone from too close to call. on the republican boards which will show be top three republicans. too close to call. ted cruz, donald trump. separated with only 5% by 115. the republicans do a raw vote. these are the top three with 5% in in the gop caucus. again, we repeat these warnings. this is going to be back and forth all night. negligible numbers in. we're joined by nicole wallace.
what are you hearing? you're on your device a lot? >> it's gossip. with all your real reporters around i feel so insecure about trafficking gossip. >> go ahead. >> i'm hearing that rubio is having a strong night based on the crowds and things happening in the room. i feel like we haven't paid as much attention to the the two a tarantalas. a lot of people thought he was laying back too much. he will probably come in third. people will think it's awesome if it's a close third. >> lawrence, we heard a bit about the rubio, three, two, one strategy. third in iowa, second in new hampshire, or so they hope. it's completed by winning south carolina. there is rubio leaving the caucus tonight in urbandale,