tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC February 1, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm PST
donald trump. chris christie. rand paul. rubio. >> we hesitate to jump in here like golf announcers. let's state the obvious. something as basic and organic as folded pieces of paper in an organic u.s. mail paper while everyone who has watched a device is watching it being tallied up. it's from here that the voters in iowa, those who cared enough to go out and caucus can send a message that's heard not just around the political country but around the world. let's given where we stand given
the fact this is very early on tonight. this is the republican side. again, pay attention to the percentage of the vote in. as you saw, republicans do one person, one vote. it's raw vote. having said that with 5% reporting, it's a cruz, trump, rubio race. those are the top three in a crowded republican field. to the democrats. again, our terminology is important. we have gone from too early to call to too close to call. that's for a reason. coming up on a quarter of what is kind of the distilled democratic process in. 52-47 hillary clinton, bernie sanders. rachel. >> should be clear when you're looking at those little numbers below the pictures of bernie sanders and hillary clinton, those are not vote equivalents. >> of course not. >> they are not votes in the same way they represent votes in
the republican side. democrats count differently. we're watching a republican caucus. they are tallying up these paper ballots that were cast by every participant at this particular republican caucus site in des moines. on the democrat side, you don't count folded pieces of paper. you count heads. you count human beings that move themselves to a specific part of the room. >> in herds. >> in herds to indicate who they -- we won't need to understand it unless we get really, really arcane in the closeness of this race. steve is looking at this particular caucus site in des moines. we're just getting a snapshot of how the race is going. vote by vote here. how important is this? what do we know about this caucus site? >> something very interesting. you're look at that vote counting. that's the test. that is the key to whether this is going to be a good night or
not for marco rubio. marco rubio concentrated his efforts in this campaign heavily on the des moines area. po the biggest county in the state is where des moines is. right to the west is dallas county. that's suburban. a lot of college educated, white collar republicans there. those three counties, three out of the 99 in iowa are going account for about one quarter of the vote cast on the republican side. they were the heart of mitt romney's campaign in 2012 when he tied mitt romney and rubio has taken some heat from republicans in the state for concentrating so much in that area. he needs big numbers out of that area. one other thing on the subject of rubio. we've been talking about these entrance polls. one thing i want to draw your attention to with the warnings that these are early numbers
that are still coming in, this is what we're seeing. we talked so much about the evangelical vote on the republican side. so much of the commentary heading into tonight was ted cruz big numbers. we also wondered would donald trump make end roads. right now the entrance poll is leading be evangelicals. donald trump has made, at least according to the numbers right now, end roads. marco rubio getting more than 20% in this entrance poll of the evangelical votes. they are making up well over half of the electorate. in the closing weeks of this cam marco rubio put an ad when he talked about his christian faith. that number, at least right now, will be very good for marco rubio. >> thanks. we want to go to haley jackson at cruz campaign headquarters but has some news to ad surrounding marco rubio tonight.
>> reporter: i can tell you that the camcampaign, the rubio came pain is feeling like they will have a really good night. that's based on the turn out they are seeing. typically, more suburban areas. the areas where you might see more of those establishment republicans turn out for somebody like a marco rubio. as steve was pointing out, the percentage of evangelical votes could be important as optimist campaign. he's been talking about his faith. he's made stop after stop here. at this point the rubio team feeling good, feeling confident. we have been talking they might sneak in. we're waiting to see. >> we take another glance at the numbers. this is raw vote, 14%. not even a quarter in yet.
first wave, so called entrance polls in a caucus state are the political equivalent of the fog of war. they are often very, very misleading. it's good to wait until we have more raw data in. i must say, nicole wallace, this matches kind of what the talk you were getting from out there was that one of our plot lines is marco rubio would have a good night. >> cruz was way ahead two weeks ago. the fact that trump has topped him. and marco rubio is eating away at his support. he was a dominant figure in the iowa caucus in polling two or three weeks ago.
the fact they are right on his heels is saying something interesting. >> thinking about the trend line in iowa. after donald trump announced he was ronning he shot to the top of polls. he held that lead until october when ben carson took it from him. ben carson collapsed in november and then ted cruz took the lead from him in iowa. ted cruz has been on the down swing. his momentum has been negative since then. the question is whether that created an opening for marco rubio. let's go to jacob who at the caucus there. they are not counting folded pieces of paper. they are counting heads, right? >> that's what's happening. this is not completely unexpected. it's very, i would say, incredible to see. this is the hillary clinton room that's come over here. we ran out of -- they ran out of the cards to count people as they come in.
they've asked people to go into their preference groups to get a head count and the preference groups. check this out. i know you have our big bird's eye view. they have gone over to the undecided group to try to recruit voters. when you swing around here, bernie sanders. maybe, two, three times as large as the hillary clinton group. again, this group, they're counting them all at the same time. they literally ran out of cards. if you follow me over here, the gentleman in the light blue shirt, his name is nicholas johnson. between 1963 and 1973, be guy was an fcc commissioner appointed by president johnson. right now he is the precint captain for bernie sanders. >> go back to that aerial shot. in the lower right hand corner,
that small group of people that look like they are a minion. that's the uncommitted voters. >> that's right. >> we'll walk over. >> i can see you. exciting. >> when are you going to make up your mind? >> they will take the polls. the clinton campaign and sanders campaign. >> i saw clinton guys trying to pitch you? >> they're both doing a good job. >> the large group of people is the bernie sanders group. on the upper side is the hillary clinton group. this is democracy in action. i feel like i could draw on it with a magnet and make a face.
>> hang on here. we have a development. >> we have some enthusiasm. >> we should probably point out how this is unrepresentative of the state. we mind folks where you are and what type of gathering this skews toward. >> that's right. i want to remind people what we have talked about before. we are in johnson county iowa. a liberal basitian heron here. this is the university of iowa. i know i told you this before, whether 50 people or 500 people showed up here tonight, the candidates are leaving with the same amount of delegates. it doesn't matter how loud they chant. how many people are here. the county as a whole, the county as 91 state delegates equivalents out of 1400. the county has 91 and 1400 as a
whole overall. tiny percentage. jacob from msnbc. you're here in the hillary group. bernie has a much bigger crowd. how are you feeling now? >> i think we'll be able to pull through. we'll have a viable group. we're going to get some delegates to the next level. >> that's a good point, rachel and brian. she's saying viability. in order to leave with any delegates, you need 15% head count for your candidate. if there's not 15% of overall group in the hillary section, these guys might have to realign as well either to undecided to be pitched by bernie or martin o' malley. we should show that group too. >> please.
>> these guys in the corner here as the seas part are are martin o'malley group. they are going to get pitched as well. >> wait, wait. i can't see them. they are invisible. who are the people? >> they're not visible in the high shot. >> okay. here we go. here we go. here's the martin o'malley supporters. come over here. i'm actually moving the martin o'malley preference group. you're here for martin. >> we are. >> you don't look viable yet. are what are you going to do? >> we're looking at the undecided vote over there. i think they are key in the political party system. >> who are you thinking about realigning to? >> probably bernie sanders. >> how about yourself? >> sanders. >> bernie. >> i'm holding out for o'
malley. >> you'll be here for a while, right? >> yeah. >> you heard it from that gentleman. he said he's going to hold out. >> least wearing the iowa state flag. maybe that gives him strength. >> to folks just joining us, while you're watching democracy in action, if you fly west out near the nebraska border and you look at a similar, smaller but similar democrat caucus. the totals will not look the same way. in a college town on a college campus, that's what we're seeing. let's listen in to the gop tally. >> 21. >> any santorum or huckabee. >> we had no counts for the
candidates. >> we had blank one. >> if we heard correctly, no huckabee, no santorum. it's a snapshot of this district in des moines. >> being the last two winners of the iowa caucus. he's showing off on that orange paper, perhaps not the best angle for us is the final tally from that precinct. >> democracy in action. it's taken place here. quite an incredible evening. this place holes some 400
people. it was standing room only. many saying this is the first time they have attended one of these things. a lot of men and women joking saying it was their spousal unit who dragged them out because thought it was important evening to take part in. >> ben carson got 7. chris christie got 11. ted cruz got 10. carly fiorina got one. jim gilmore did not receive any. rand paul at 22. marco rubio at 88. rick santorum did not receive any. donald trump at 37. >> that was terribly rude of us. we wanted to have some of the flavor of that count from the des moines caucus from us. go ahead. >> they have just finished counting the votes.
this place is standing room only. people were lined up around the walls. there were a lot of people that brought their children. the vote counting was going on, a lot of spouses, men and women, were suggesting they had to drag along their spousal unit because people seem to find there particular caucus, perhaps more important than those in the past. as identify been listening to your programming, we have been hearing a lot of talk about marco rubio. out of two precincts that caucused here in this church, one of them marco rubio literally walked away with almost doubling the votes of donald trump and ted cruz. the first precinct, ted cruz won that by a more narrow margin. it seems to have been reflected some 20 minutes south of des moines. people are now making their way out. a very civil evening.
a lot of people got up and brainstormed the crowd. talking about the candidate they want other people to support. it was real grass roots evening. a very disappointing one for many of the candidates. marco rubio seems to have been the real winner here. >> thank you. let's go to des moines. let's go back to chris hayes. where are you? what's happen something. >> they have 448. they just did the first count. they had to put some people on the stage. they did a first count. viability number for o'malley is 68. it was 68. they did not make it. that small group are the 24
o'malley supporters who are deciding where to go. the ten uncommitted are going through the sorting process in this huge auditorium. this is a precinct that is fairly strong for sanders. it seemed like he was going to be stronger here. he is strong so far. it's a massive turn out. the caucus chair has handled this very difficult spatial situation. they figured out all sorts of ways to count folks. no one can really move. people are sort of pinned in on the sides. it's not like a room. it's not the field house that jacob was in where people can move around very easily. this is the opposite of that. it's taken some on the fly improvisation from the caucus
we're always looking for ways to speed up your car insurance search. here's the latest. problem is, we haven't figured out how to reverse it. for now, just log on to compare.com... plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest and hit purchase. now...if you'll excuse me, i'm late for an important function.
sanders watching in a hotel room. is far for him, obviously, too close to call. went from too early to call to too close to call. we're nearing the halfway mark in what passes for the democrat's cay of coudemocra democrat's way of counting the returns. >> they are not vote tote it wills but delegates. it's too close to call according to nbc news. marco rubio currently in third. now, that's the bottom line as best as we can give it to you on both of these races. one source of information that we've got is entrance polling. on the democratic side in terms of the entrance polling, some interesting perspective on
president obama. one of the things that's not a mirror image between the two parties is there's a lot of range on the republican side between in terms of how the republican voters in iowa feel about their candidates. there's number of candidates on the republican side. iowa democrats love their candidates and they love president number. the favorable numbers for hillary clinton and bernie sanders are in the 80s. the favorable numbers for president obama is more like 90%. look at this entrance polling from people who turned out on the democratic side to caucus tonight in iowa. people were asked about president obama's policies. would you like to see them continue? a big majority of the people going to the democratic caucuses in iowa tonight, 56% said they want to see the policies continue. nearly a third of people going out tonight to the democratic caucuses say they want president
obama's policies to be continued in a more liberal direction. only 7% say they want the policies to go in a less liberal direction in terms of which way the country goes post-obama. they like president obama. if you have to have them to veer one direction, they want it to go more left and not more right. >> when last we left jacob he was in some physical danger being trampled by the bernie sanders forces in the middle of the field house. what movement can you report, jacob? >> we have some numbers. these are not delegate numbers or reportable numbers. there was some danger of the hillary clinton campaign not being viable. you need to have 15% of overall total to be viable here. the hillary campaign had 89 supporters out of 495. they expected in the 20 0 range
of people to be here. hillary is safe and viable. now they are trying to get every last voting to bump up the delegate count. the bernie campaign is viable. a little democracy in action. see if we can peek into this recruiting session. >> bernie is trying to lower or equal them so the upper class are not paying the same amount of taxes as the middle and lower. bernie is trying to equal the playing fields. >> i'd still be paying the amount of taxes where people who make more income would be paying even more taxes because they can afford it. >> the percentage you pay will be equal no matter how much income you have. he's trying to level it. >> this is how it goes. this is how it goes down here. we're going to go back and keep
listening. >> large corporations he wants to make sure they are paying their fair share. he wants to bring jobs back in america. >> what is your rebuttal about the military? he hasn't talked to correspondents? >> that's the thing in general. the commander in chief know their political backgrounds. no matter if they meet with correspondents. i'm not going to say it's not important. it is important. i know your boyfriend is military. i know christian. it comes with the job. just because you meet with them doesn't mean you're any better. >> are you concerned about your boyfriend in the military? >> bernie is for the va. he cares about veterans rights. he cares about taking care of them. he doesn't want to ship them overseas. >> what i want to know. i get va. i am va. i am a vet. my mom's a vet. how is he going to fix it? the va is more screwed up than
it has been in a while. the fact i haven't gotten benefits in three months because the va is so [ muted ] up really makes me concerned. you will win or lose me on there? >> you know whn yen you listen to caucus and people speak the way they do out on the street. we apologize. i know jacob apologizes. we all join him in apologizing for a bit of french that snuck into our english language translation. very young veteran of our country. a very heated microcosm conversation. an interesting subplot. i presume is what they were talking about is president obama's decision to host foreign correspondents. american based foreign
correspondents at the white house which has happened once in his presidency. i'm imagining that's what they were talking about there. >> that's right. apologies from us in the field house as well. this is what democracy looks like. it ain't pretty and people get heated. we're not walking in and putting bat lo ballots in the ballot box. you have military veterans and people looking for jobs, paychecks. health care. this is quite literal and this is no joke. >> i know your apologies. i know your apology is genuine. that's bernie sanders trying to
persuade. were those uncommitted, unaligned voters or martin o'malley voters. who were they trying to persuade to join bernie's camp? >> i'm assuming they are undecided but they could have been martin o'malley. he didn't get 15% of supporters. 72.5 people in his corner. that's what we're seeing. i want to pan around again to the bernie sanders group who are now cooling their heels waiting to find out how many delegates will walk out of here with. they are a sizable portion of the delegate offense this location. >> we will come back to you. we're going to check in with our own casey hunt who is over at sanders headquarters. casey, as an old associated press veteran yourself, i know you have some reporting on what they're saying inside sanders
headquarters. >> good evening. we just showed you that video of senator sanders pacing in his hotel room. it's a suite they have upstairs where they are waiting and watching the returns. if you've ever covered him before, i covered him some in the senate, you'll know he has famous lack of patience. you remember back to his presidential announcement. it only lasted ten minutes and marked by him saying we've got other important things to do. we've got to get back to the senate. we can still see that today. he's clearly at a point where he's loving this. he's come so far at this point. if you remember back to what, i watch what some of the pundits had to say. they called him crazy and a loon. i asked him about those specific terms day or so ago. he said i said don't underestimate me. i'll say it again. don't underestimate me now. talking to aides in the room with him and on the phone with the war room they have done the
street. they have team of people. they have build their own app so they can be in touch directly with precinct captains and independently, themselves, what they are seeing. that is just enormous turn out. people returning out of registration forms. one caucus having to be pushed into a parking lot. one is a caucus site in sioux city. i'm sure you're familiar with the geography out in western iowa. the people showing up and tearing out those registration forms are leaving them there. that's according to the precinct captains there. >> i knew you would have
reporting from inside the campaign. casey hunt who was briefly 50-feet tall. thank you. let's run our boards again. take a look. important phrase on the upper left, too close to call. important number after that. 53%. this does not refer to the kind of raw vote. 51-48 in the context of too close to call. to the republican side, the top three. that's not to mean that rubio is in leader contention. we're nearing the halfway point. too close to call. a race for first between cruz and trump, 29-26. difference of about two grand in the raw. it's early. you see the rest of the field. again, it's early. carson, paul, bush, fiorina,
kasich and santorum. there's all the republican field. 50% of the raw vote in. these are how the percentages shake out. to chris matthews at our election headquarters in des moines. >> thank you. a couple of things we know already. 97% rejection of the bush family. dramatic. they spent $15 million out here. that's already in the news. that's done. >> not surprising. the bush campaign put all its chips on new hampshire. >> it's a two way, looking at the raw numbers, two way between cruz and trump. i have the sense the rubio spin will hit us around 11:00 or midnight. they'll have a dramatic statement from him claiming victory.
why do i know that's come something. >> it's coming. if you talk to rubio allies, they will cast this as a victory for the senator and will go barrelling into new hampshire. he didn't need a win here. he needed momentum. they feel he got it. >> how much media manipulation will we see from the candidates? will they spin reality to their favor? >> it's the republican establishment. they want to stay in this race. >> even though he wasn't in the running for victory out here? >> rubio never had a strong ground game here. he came to the urban areas. the cruz organization is for real.
evangelical network, religious conservatives came out for ted cruz. >> is it a sheer loss. the guy cheated. he put out the mailer the last couple of days. is that possible? >> it's possible. trump has never spun this as a favorable state. it wasn't home turf. they'll go into new hampshire and south carolina. what did he get out of iowa? he bruised cruz. he brought up canadian birth. he brings up the nasty reputation in the senate. those are his words. >> can cruz say it wasn't a defeat? >> if it's tight. he can. the cruz campaign is built for a national campaign. it's going to be a long race. if it's tight between trump and
cruz, i expect a projected battle. >> i have to tell you and rachel, i've never seen better photography and covering of a caucus night. the pictures comie ining out of field house. the pictures of the hotel room of bernie sanders is the kind of picture you get a week later. here we are getting it the night of the event. it's fabulous to watch. >> that's right. >> he's probably watching us. pensively looking at the tv screen. it's great picture. i've grown up, as you have done, grown up with those pictures of people watching and see how they're doing. except for that bit of cinema, it's been perfect. >> audio veritae. we can shoot that quality picture on our devices. we see in the background how small cameras have gotten.
64% is in. this is the race at the top. too close to call on the republican side, which leads us to check in with both headquarters, trump and cruz starting with katy at donald trump headquarters in des moines tonight. >> the more people who show up to the voting caucus sites, the better donald trump will do. it is too early to call but cruz does have on a edge on him. if he isn't able to pull this off, in donald trump doesn't come away with this state, his ground will be skroocrutinized.
they haven't been transparent with the press. we have tried to go to their headquarters and see them phone bank. we any access from them. we have seen them giving out voter registration forms at rallies. it could turn out his ground came couldn't match up to what cruz had going here. it's still very early on. the trump campaign says they are feeling good. they are happy to see the turn out is so high. donald trump having high fived a little boy at the last caucus site he visited. it's still too early to tell. >> haley jackson is at cruz headquarters. katy raises sump an important point about the ground game. the trump folks were secretive about theirs. cruz was always forthright about staking so much on iowa. he had his mail forwarded there and was there more than the other top tier republican candidates. that's why tonight's result is
so interesting. >> well, they've always talked about their organization on the ground here than any other states. rick, i want to ask you it's early still on caucus night, but give me a sense of the mood of the campaign. >> it's too early to call. we're cautiously opt mystic. i'm very encouraged with what i'm seeing so far. >> there's been a lot of confidence, a lot of confident talking from the campaign. are you still feeling that way. >> on election day it's always different. it's like there is when it's all real. you get the gop. you get a little nervous. i'm a little nervous. right now we're ahead. we're ahead a comfortable margin and ahead all night. we'll have a great night. >> there's been reports of higher turn out. we have talked to some caucus goers who say their caucuses went quickly.
a will the of talk is a higher turn out will benefit your closest competitor. >> people recognize and vote for a name. knowing all about the issues. >> even in iowa where they have been following this for months now? >> it's historically true. iowa votes have been -- thousands of voters, shook their hands and looked them in the eye. we're optimistic it will work. we'll wait and see. i'm hopeful. >> an aide from marco's campaign said they are feeling really good. >> he's going to come in third. coming in first is a lot better than coming in third. i won't comment from there on
how they are feeling. i hope they feeling fine. >> who are you more threatened by donald trump or marco? >> i think it's a two-man race between donald trump and ted cruz. marco was pro-amnesty candidate. if they like someone who is pro-amnesty, i think the democrats would win. >> rick tyler. we'll be checking in with you tonight. back to you. >> thank you. >> to hear the derision dripping from rick tyler. then marco, he's in third. why would i feel the need to comment on someone in third. >> you picked up on that? >> i did. >> he's good at his job. i've done this with you where you don't know what will happen. he stayed on message. he didn't gloat. >> he gloated very quietly. >> in terms of the turn out
we're hearing projected turn out from republicans. reportedly republicans think the turn out will be a record. the previous record turn out on the republican side is about 12. that was in 2012. republicans at least anecdotally now are projecting they're going to be maybe 50,000 higher than that. up to 170,000. >> and the cruz model was built to go right to 170. so that is an important number. the cruz model for success, the ground game, its capacity was 170. >> well, what's happening in terms of where people are turning out and what the vote looks like in specific parts of iowa? steve kornacki's been looking at this in terms of specifically what it says for the trump prospects tonight. >> i've got to say right now we're getting to a point where this is getting serious and if you're donald trump's campaign and you're looking at these numbers right now you've got to start to get worried right now because you are basically more than 3,000 votes behind ted cruz statewide with more than 2/3 of the vote in right now. take a look at a few things that
are happening right now that explain where this is coming from. you look at this part of the state. this would be the mississippi river on the eastern edge of the state. this is dubuque up here, the steve dubuque. davenport down here. these are both purple counties right now. purple means marco rubio on here. now, marco rubio's strategy in iowa, he took a lot of criticism for this. was he went to the heavily populated areas. he was around des moines. he was around the cities in eastern iowa. the character of this part of the state, though. there's also lots of blue -- these are old mill towns along the mississippi river. you're talking blue collar. you're talking about a haven for catholics in iowa. so there was some expectation in the polling that was showing in the eastern cities of iowa donald trump was doing very well. these are not final numbers in dubuque. a lot of votes still to come in in dubuque, but early on marco rubio leading in dubuque. that is very good news for marco rubio. that's why 21% right now, that is exceeding the expectations for marco rubio. this is one of the places he's getting it from. here's another one. davenport. this is basically -- this is
scott county. this is where davenport is. this is different. most of the vote is in in davenport right now. in 2012 when mitt romney basically got a tie with rick santorum statewide, this was the heart, this and the des moines area was pretty much the heart of it for mitt romney. you're talking about that sort of establishment type republican, more moderate republican, less evangelical, who marco rubio looks like he's going to win over here tonight, not donald trump. this was an area of the state i think where the trump people were expecting they would do a little better. also some trouble signs for the trump campaign. take a look down here. make sure this works. this is polk county. this is the most highly populated county in the state. this is des moines. and there are still votes to come in. if you're looking for where that 70%'s going to get up to 100, it's right around here. it's des moines and dallas county. this is a suburb of des moines. this is the fastest-growing county in the state. right now you see ted cruz is leading here. trump down in third place. take a look in dallas county.
this is the bedroom count right to the west of des moines. again, mitt romney ran up big numbers in 2012. donald trump running in third. rubio and cruz doing well there. look, again, a lot of votes scattered. there's room here for trump to move up. but we're at a point know where if you're trump you've got to start getting worried. >> steve kornacki at the board. fantastic technology. we should probably add based on where we're about to go next, when technology works it's great. jacob soboroff back on the floor of the fieldhouse. jacob, there's been a cough in the system? >> yeah, a little bit, unfortunately, brian. it's a pretty simple technological one. i'm here with carla smith who i met earlier in the evening and her phone battery's died so she's not able to report the results yet to the party. but carla, you have done the final count, the campaigns have done the final count and you have the numbers, right? >> yes. >> can you tell us what they are? >> sure. bernie sanders had 406 people. >> okay. >> so he is having five
delegates. >> out of six total. >> hillary had 93 people. the total amount of people that were here were 499. >> say it again. the total amount of people. >> 499. >> and those are the numbers you'll be reporting to the state -- >> yes. >> are you confirming you're not able to get them in because of the battery? >> yes. >> is that something you guys have talked about in advance? . >> yeah. but there's a number i can call and call them in. >> we'll let you go do that. that is carla smith, the caucus chair for iowa city precinct number 3 here at fieldhouse at the university of iowa. >> if you can help her out by loaning her a charger or a mophie that would be really cool of you i think. >> i don't think that would be putting your thumb on the scale. squlif an android. >> okay. >> it's interesting what jacob has just seen there because nobody expected, including the "des moines register" in its last poll projecting turnout, that democrats would end up with
unusually high turnout. but at least anecdotally we're seeing in some specific places they're getting high turnout. obviously college town turnout is going to be very important to bernie sanders. i sort of feel like this is the same thing that happened the morning after the first debate this year. which is that everybody was expecting oh, the debate will be interesting. donald trump's in it, he's a tv celebrity, we'll see what happens and those first numbers came in for that first debate and it was 24 million people or something watched. there's a lot of interest in this race. it may be it's not following the specific contours we expect it to follow, it may not be totally predictable but it seems like on the democratic side and the republican side the american interest in this race is outperforming what all the professionals company and we'll see if these turnout numbers hold up but if they do i think that's going to be one of the big sort of heartening surprises. no matter which candidate it redo you understand to. >> let's take a break. when we come back it will be the top of a fresh hour. we'll talk to our political
coast. 75% of the raw vote is in in the gop side of this race. at too close to call, the contest right now between ted cruz and donald trump. with rubio at this point in third place. again 75%. on the democratic side a tougher calculation because we're not talking about a raw vote but we have it obviously too close to call at this hour. with 63% of the knowables in about potential delegates. 51-49. and 1% for martin o'malley of baltimore. >> and we do have some reported news on martin o'malley. this is a live shot of his celebration venue for tonight. >> maybe the saddest picture in all of politics tonight. >> alex seitz-wald reporting tonight that martin