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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  February 1, 2016 7:00pm-8:01pm PST

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coast. 75% of the raw vote is in in the gop side of this race. at too close to call, the contest right now between ted cruz and donald trump. with rubio at this point in third place. again 75%. on the democratic side a tougher calculation because we're not talking about a raw vote but we have it obviously too close to call at this hour. with 63% of the knowables in about potential delegates. 51-49. and 1% for martin o'malley of baltimore. >> and we do have some reported news on martin o'malley. this is a live shot of his celebration venue for tonight. >> maybe the saddest picture in all of politics tonight. >> alex seitz-wald reporting tonight that martin o'malley is
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expected to suspend his campaign during his speech tonight after the iowa results come in. we just saw him at 1% right now at the current tally in iowa. that's not too much of a surprise. he's also been in some pretty serious money trouble, which you would expect given his distant third place in the polls. right now in terms of cash on hand hillary clinton's got about $38 million cash on hand. bernie sanders, $28 million cash on hand. martin o'malley, reported cash on hand, $169,000. and the "new york times" reporting today that a lot of not just his senior staff but also his junior staff has been working for free. and no matter how much passion you've got for your candidate, that's not sustainable, especially when you turn in a number like this in iowa. so again, we are expecting the campaign of governor martin o'malley of maryland to effectively end, to be suspended. he's going to suspend his campaign when he's going to speak tonight. we're expecting those remarks from governor o'malley in about half an hour. >> it happens. there's only so much oxygen in the room. only so much money in the world
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of politics. and it appears to be the first casualty of the evening. chuck todd, our political director, standing by at our election headquarters. chuck, what do you make of the numbers this early? >> well, there's a few things you need to know about the numbers. let's go on the republican side. the vote that is out is evenly distributed. what does that mean? it means there isn't somehow a pocket of a trump county that is not reported yet or someplace that we thought, that we think trump could overperform. it is very hard to see how he overtakes cruz at this point. obviously it's still a small margin. we're always going to be very careful before you would call a race. but i can tell you, multiple campaign models, multiple ways of looking at this. it is very hard to see how trump overtakes cruz and we're look at the order we're looking at. what does that mean? number one, brian, it means ted cruz is the first republican to get -- to take a punch from
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trump and survive. that's a big deal. that's a big deal going forward. number two, marco rubio i think is getting the booster shot that he needed. let's see if the rest of the establishment field and the donors now start rewarding and consolidating behind rubio and away from the sort of establishment wing of the party. it should give him the booster shot that he needs in new hampshire. and number three, donald trump now is the guy with the pressure on him. if iowa was a must win for cruz, new hampshire is now a must-win for him. and as you know, brian, we've done this for multiple presidential cycles. eight days is a lifetime from iowa to new hampshire, and numbers can swing in a hurry. but you've got to say this. you've got to give cruz credit. he had the governor of iowa against him. he had donald trump beating the living daylights out of him. and he survived. that's a big deal. it's the first time we've seen somebody essentially survive the onslaught from trump in this
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race. by the way, on the democratic side one thing about how close this race is, basically the two campaigns are going to split the delegates. and the only reason that hillary clinton will likely have a small delegate lead is because the superdelegates, which is the equivalent of the democratic establishment, are most likely for her. >> wow. nicole wallace, the republican story tonight is really fascinating. to chuck's point, he's so right. a week is a year in american politics, especially in this cycle. >> and what cruz will have done if these numbers hold up is he will have robbed trump of his central reason for being. his central reason for being in this race is his winneriness. and he will have deprived him of his whole purpose for being the best guy to make america great again, his best -- >> wait, you think it's key to his appeal that he will win. so if he doesn't win it punctures him? >> i just think his whole brand is about being a winner and the
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rest of us are losers. so he will -- in effect, coming in second is not as good as coming in first. he will have lost to cruz. and i think it gets at the central trump purpose. >> and it's what he tells his audiences every night. if i don't win it's a waste of time. >> you'll come to me and say president trump, can we stop winning for a while? >> you'll get so sick of winning you'll be bored. >> that said, because donald trump is becoming a more and more conventional candidate with each passing day, he did do some work over the last 48 hours, 72 hours. in which he did tamp down exceptions in iowa. he's got his usual bluster but he said it would be nice to win, i would like to win, we might not win, i hope we win. he wasn't saying i definitely will. >> where would trump be tonight if he didn't come on as strong as he did in the last three weeks on iowa, challenging cruz on everything, from how he financed his senate campaign with wall street loans, challenging cruz's citizenship? he couldn't have hit cruz harder. where would he be?
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would he be finishing after rubio if he didn't do that big run against cruz? >> lawrence, can i ask you a question? probably a lot of people as they see the numbers are going to start asking in a second wave. where do we stand on ted cruz and being born in canada? >> what's interesting is when the issue first arose most people, including myself, believed that this was already a closed case, agreed with the phrase that cruz used, which was settled law. i then brought law professors on my show, and i couldn't find one who thought it was settled law, including lawrence tribe, which really then excited donald trump and he kept quoting him everywhere. so there's been a renewed rush of scholarship toward this since it emerged. and the scholarship is trending against cruz on this. you know, it's going to go on now as long as he won tonight and his candidacy is viable. the big question for cruz, though, in terms of this calendar is where is his next win? where does he pick up another win? >> he ticks off carolina as their --
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>> looking at the new hampshire polls right now, obviously the big story out of new hampshire is that donald trump has a large lead in new hampshire. but the person who is polling consistently second in new hampshire now is ted cruz. so we've seen these interesting percolating lower to your candidates like chris christie or john kasich. even jeb bush a little bit. >> for six hours. >> but where those guys are at 6%, 7%, 8%, the guy who's consistently in second in new hampshire, ted cruz. ted cruz in the republican universe is not a new hampshire type candidate. the question is whether or not if he pulls this out tonight in iowa whether he can both build on the momentum but also apply whatever it is his campaign did in iowa to win a very, very different kind of race with a very different electorate in the northeast. >> one of the markers that marco rubio's going to pull out of the entrance polls, it's one of the biggest gaps in the entrance polls, it's the question of can win in november. marco rubio has a giant lead on that question in that he's at 43, trump at 26, and cruz at 21.
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and a lot of these other numbers are very close together. this is the kind of number that actually tells you something because there's a big gap in it. >> we think starting tonight the rubio campaign will be saying look at us, come home, establishment republicans. chris jansing standing by at rubio headquarters with same. chris? >> reporter: well, they're fired up here. i can tell you. i've talked to a lot of people who've come back from the caucus, maybe 200, 250 people so far, and every single one said they have been surprised where they have caucused and a lot of people who are on the fence went for marco rubio. how passionately people spoke about him. and to lawrence's point a lot of people talk about electability, that they think he is the one who could go out and beat the democrat. obviously something he's been hammering recently. let me bring in alex cohen, who's the communications director for the rubio campaign. let me get your take on where your candidate is right now. >> it's a big night for us. this is way better than we did in any public polling. clearly we had a lot of momentum the last couple days.
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it turned into a big night for our campaign. i think we're coming out of iowa with a lot of momentum at our back. i can tell you our website is under siege right now by people trying to log on, join our team at it's a really good night for our campaign. we're leaving iowa very happy and we're not even done counting the votes yet. we spoke at 4:00. there was massive turnout. these are areas where most of the people in those rooms were supporting marco. i don't think those votes are in yet. stay tuned. >> you good mention the last two polls came out had him at 15% and 17%. he's now at 22%. from what you know, what's still outstanding how could you finish here? >> all the new votes coming in we keep rising in the polls. it's totally possible we could finish second, which nobody thought that was possible just a couple hours ago. >> i think you could pull out a second place -- >> potentially. again, we're very happy with a third place finish but a lot of the areas still youpt standing are good areas for marco rubio. stay tuned tonight. >> and where do you go from
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here? obviously north carolina but how do you take this? >> it's of momentum. it's a three-person race. if you don't want donald trump or ted cruz to be the nominee you'd better get on board with marco rubio. >> new hampshire, here you come. thank you so much, alex conant. a lot of folks i talked to today are excited about the prospect -- a couple of the college students were saying to me maybe their next stop is going to be either new hampshire or south carolina. that's the kind of thing you want to build on even when you come out of a place -- a second or third place, and what they are saying consistently here is just remember the last two cycles, the winner of iowa is not the one who went on to win the nomination. as you can hear from alex, feeling good tonight, brian. >> chris jansing at rubio headquarters. let's go across town to chris matthews. chris, i want to hear you out on this one, two, three apparent at least at this hour finishing order in the gop. >> well, i think if trump loses,
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and it looks like he's behind significantly, he will be the victim of expectations. i think the "des moines register" poll that came out this weekend came out almost like an exit poll and create a reality. almost like the first returns in from the caucuses. and all this weekend the word among the press and the media has been, and among the politicians out here, that trump's ahead, that he's got sort of the first photo finish he won. and now looks like he's lost. so it has more power than it would have had we gone into this weekend looking at a very close race. it looked like trump was going to win this thing. i must say maybe we all underestimated a rubio fact here and that fact being todd harris, who was media adviser to joni ernst and really brought her in with that brilliant ad on hog castration, really created her out here in iowa with that. todd harris is one brilliant media guy, and he's been with -- he's been with rubio from the beginning. and the way he's portrayed him as kind of a guy you can look at him almost like one of those
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santa claus masks. wherever you look at him he's looking back at you. if you're a moderate, rubio looks like a moderate. if you're very religious, catholic or protestant or whatever, he looks like one of you. and they've been very clever. if you're a hawk, he's a hawk for sure. but he's also a, quote, establishment moderate. so he's been able to create a lot of revisages, all easy to take. and i think you had to make a big decision to vote for trump or for cruz. it's an easier, softer vote to go for the younger guy who looks now to be the real challenger of these two guys going on for new hampshire. especially new hampshire. he is the real challenger to trump right now. >> a lot of nodding up here on our panel, especially with nicole wallace. first of all, nicole, you think you're going to get through a night without hearing about santa claus and hog castration in the same sentence. >> i love that. >> that was great. but specifically this rubio role. >> first of all, rubio deserves the medal for sort of press
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spin. and i think i said to you earlier that the rubio press operation most reminds me of the bush press operation. lots of times people called us really, really stupid but we had a plan in mind and we sort of trusted by the time people voted it would work out. they never wavered. there were a lot of people throwing pot shots at him up until this morning. and he never -- it's maddening to some people, especially in the press, he never veers from his message in a near-annoying manner. and he never veers from his tactics. and they never second-guess each other. you never see stories in the paper about their team questioning each other. and it pays off when you have a result that exceeds expectations. now, whether this actually exceeds expectations or whether they just pulled off one of the best spin boondoggles of the cycle is -- i'm not going to weigh in on that. but they're going to be celebrating his third place finish in iowa for days. >> but it's not just -- if he comes within three points of donald trump, three points of the giant -- >> or beats him. you heard alex conant say
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they'll beat him. >> the trump ground game. they were silent about it, they would close the door whenever anyone aim to take a look at who was involved in it. but they kept assuring people we've got a great ground game, we're ready. we'll find out if they were just winging it. >> as we are absorbing that information it should be noted that the democratic race right now is so title you could bounce a dime off of it. >> wow. >> steve kornacki's got the details on np this is incredibly close. >> we spent so much time on the republican race for obvious reasons but by the way, let's give you, to interpret this, you see the 50%, the 49%, the number you're seeing below. these are delegate equivalents. these aren't actual votes here. this is what we're getting at all these precinct caucuses we can show tonight. but what we can say is this. about 80% of the vote is in. about 80% of the precincts are in on the democratic side right now. bernie sanders. this is razor thin, as you see. he does have a chance to overtake hillary clinton. we don't have the map by county.
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we have outstanding precincts, a significant number of them in iowa city. that's a college town. that's the university of iowa. bernie sanders has been banking on that. outstanding precincts there. in cedar rapids that is right nearby. bernie sanders has been doing very well there tonight. outstanding precincts there as well. story county. this is iowa state university. another college town. outstanding precincts there as well. also in the city of davenport where he's doing well. that's on the mississippi river. outstanding precincts there. some sizable areas where bernie sanders has been doing well that are still out. counter that there are a couple of sizable areas where hillary clinton's doing very well, where we still have precincts to come in. most notably polk, that is des moines, that's the capital city, doing very well there. dallas, we keep talking about this. that's that suburb right to the west of there. she's doing well there. outstanding precincts as well. you can't look at it right now and say one of these has a clear advantage but you can look at it and say when it's this close bernie sanders absolutely could
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overtake hillary clinton. >> looking at the outstanding precincts in the places we still don't have a vote total, any of those places is it unusual we don't have a vote total? in any of these places does it seem like there might be a wrench stuck in the works or is this just the normal course of events in terms of when things will come in? >> these are not empty counties where we have no precincts in. these are counties where you have 6 0%, 65%, 70%. but we're talking about in-some big ones. johnson county that is iowa city. that was a couple cycles ago. almost 10% of all caucus participants in the state were just in that county on the democratic 150side. >> all right. steve kornacki at the board. twoirnting races both parties. we're going to take a break. we'll be right back with updated numbers and chuck todd right after this.
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we're back at 10:19 p.m. on the east coast. here's the democratic side again.
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not raw vote. that 81% number in the upper left. too close to call. these are -- it's a bank shot mathematically. they're delegate equivalents. more on that at another time. let's go to the gop, where we have a development. 99% of the raw in. too close to call. and look at the margin here. >> 99% in. >> 99% in. sooner or later, we're going to have hard and fast results. ted cruz, donald trump, marco rubio. from first to third. 43,000 to 35,000. chuck todd is standing by. but first we're going to go to katy tur at donald trump headquarters. katy, you sense a little bit of a change in the atmospherics if not the overall mood? >> reporter: certainly. everybody is glued to the television right now watching this. i just spoke to state senator
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brad zahn, who endorsed donald trump back in october. i showed him the latest poll results, and he said, and i quote, "he is not going to be happy about this," referring to donald trump. right now i think it's interesting to point out that donald trump has spent the last month or so really going hard after ted cruz. pretty much ignoring marco rubio. and the campaign might be seeing that tonight as a real mistake. they had hit marco rubio hard earlier in the campaign. but as his poll numbers never really seemed to rise, the campaign moved on from him and focused on ted cruz while also hitting jeb bush along the way. so what i do expect is to hear him start talk about marco rubio more in the come week as we get to new hampshire trying to diminish his momentum. certainly there was a big expectation that ted cruz would win this state, but if marco rubio has as strong a showing as he's showing right now -- >> katy, let me interrupt you. this is jgermane to your beat. we are projecting that when it's
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all said and done based on all available numbers ted cruz is your projected winner of the iowa first in the nation caucuses. ted cruz. let's bring in chuck todd. chuck, have at it. >> brian, look, ted cruz needed to win iowa. he did win iowa. the most important thing, though, in the way he won iowa over the last three weeks is donald trump did him a favor. the irony to this is a month ago everybody had conceded. iowa was ted cruz country. and then trump turned it into a two-man race. some of the public polling backed him up, put him ahead. and now this victory means more to ted cruz than it would have been a month ago. someday if ted cruz is the guy in cleveland getting that nomination he should thank donald trump for doing what he did in the last two weeks of his campaign. cruz won this thing in the face of the popular republican governor terry branstad endorsing against him. the establishment endorsing
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against him. he took a punch. it's a big deal for cruz. the other thing is marco rubio, obviously. the fact that maybe he could even catch trump for second place. but this puts all this pressure now on trum top see if he can now go and win in new hampshire. i can tell you this, brian. everything is going to change in new hampshire. this is going to flip. we could be staring at a real three-way race with rubio, trump, and cruz. and don't right off cruz. the most important thing here tonight, though, brian is what is trump going to say? how's trump going to handles losing? how does he do a concession speech? how he concedes tonight will tell us what he's going to look like as a candidate in the next week. >> chuck todd, thank you so much. what a luxury to be able to talk to you right off the top of the news. if you're just joining us, based on 99% of the return, the projected winner in iowa is ted cruz. hallie jackson is standing by at cruz headquarters. hallie, have all the big-screen
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televisions projected the same news behind you? >> reporter: the big screens behind me, brian, are showing cruz in a very strong position in iowa and over the last five minutes we've heard two big cheers come up from the crowd here as they're watching the results come in. the crowd feeling really good. the campaign feeling really good. they have been what we have described as supremely confident, very optimistic in their organization, in their ground game. they believed they would hit their get out the vote totals. i'm being told they have hit their get out the vote totals. as we hear another big cheer coming from the crowd here. with our projection ted cruz has won iowa. people are excited. some folks have come in from caucuses. we've chatted with folks who've caucused and come here. one thing we've heard is high turnout. one man said in his precinct it was three times the number of people he'd typically see and he's been caucusing there for 26 years, and he said that cruz was the winner at his caucus, trump second, rubio third. that's something we've heard a lot as we sort of anecdotally
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chat with folks here. obviously a sense of excitement, a sense of optimism but also a sense that perhaps this was not a surprise. we've been talking about how cruz was tailor made for iowa. i guess i should say how iowa is tailor made for ted cruz, with a strong evangelical population, a population cruz has been working very hard to convert to his supporters. and tonight it looks as though that has paid off for him in iowa, guys. >> two college dormitories full of volunteers. they said from all 50 states. >> camp cruz. >> east coast, west coast, all around the country. just an incredible ground game that you've been covering all along. >> reporter: yeah. and they knew that that was so important to the eventual turnout here. and that is something that they believe they've been pointing to. they were able to not just turn people out but also have a data collection effort, a data gathering effort. they were able to even up in these last 24 to 48 hours, brian, identify voters. even yesterday before the
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caucuses identify supporters of other candidates, people who weren't planning to caucus for ted cruz, they were calling them, having these long phone conversations with them. up to 17 minutes on average, speaking to these particular people directly about the issues that matter thome and how to convert them into ted cruz supporters. sought campaign, again, all along has felt confident even when you saw them slip in the polls. you saw them feel months about that rebalancing expectations. but tonight obviously with the project win for ted cruz a good feeling for the campaign. we'll go get some reaction and come back to you. >> hallie jackson at cruz headquarters. cruz under withering attack for these past several weeks. andrea mitchell has news on the clinton campaign front. andrea. >> reporter: the clinton campaign, officials telling me they are declaring victory over bernie sanders. they said it is close. obviously, we don't have the numbers to back it up. but after radio silence now for the last couple of hours, they are declaring victory tonight,
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saying they believe they have defeated bernie sanders, that the turnout was very high, which is what he had said would -- or their campaign and the candidate himself had said would mean a victory for bernie sanders. this is a very cautious crowd. and obviously nbc is not declaring this. but this is what the senior official is saying, that they believe they have defeated bernie sanders here in this hard-fought race, much, much closer than anyone would have expected some months ago. with the excitement and the passion for sanders' message, a message of populism and clinton saying that her experience, her pragmatism could get things done. you know, brian and rachel and -- how tight this has been. how difficult and how important a test. but in any case, top clinton officials are telling me tonight that they believe that they have won. and they say we are declaring victory. brian? rachel? >> andrea mitchell. >> that's a very unusual
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decision. >> to the folks watching at home wondering can they do that? the superficial answer is they just did. but the secondary and more serious answer is the individual networks using human intelligence, algorithms, mathematics, make these estimates and calls and award states and elections to candidates on their own for a reason. so we will await that. >> and let's be clear that in terms of nbc news, and nbc news's very careful take on this, with 83% in in terms of the democratic results tonight it is still too close to call according to nbc. it is an unusual thing for a campaign to declare victory when they don't have any more of the vote in than we do. obviously, they have their own polling and monitoring that's telling them something. it's hard to know whether this is a gambit or whether this is -- i mean, it is a gambit because they don't have the results in. but whether this is an effort to try to sway perceptions of what's happening tonight or whether this is really that they believe they have won. >> back on the republican side,
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this is the hour, 10:30 eastern time, where often the news starts breaking out. and the news right now has to do with that man, governor huckabee has announced on twitter prior to showing up at his own event that he is going to suspend his campaign, and he says simply thank you for all your loyal support, using the now common hashtag to his effort, i'm with huck. >> governor huckabee of course the winner of the iowa caucuses in 2008. >> a former victor. >> a former victor. rick santorum was the winner in 2012. you see him at the bottom of the tally right now. being next in line for the republican nomination isn't what it used to be. >> so rationality is finally settling over some of the republican candidates who could have made that very same choice to leave the campaign a while ago. i'm going to be fascinated to see if the media wants to revise its near-unanimous verdict on the brilliance of donald trump skipping the iowa debate.
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did that work quite as perfectly as the media seemed to believe it did? >> there are eight polls that have come out of the last two weeks of iowa that meet nbc news standards. of those eight polls in the last two weeks in iowa donald trump wins every single one of them. so something changed. what's the big thing that changed? he skipped that iowa debate. the other thing that always goes wrong in iowa republican polling, if anything goes wrong in that polling, it's always that christian conservatives get undercounted. we may yet find that was the other thing that went wrong. not just in one poll but in all the polls. >> and the entry polls are cruz, as one might expect, took the evangelical vote by more than ten points. >> nicole, you believe it was the skipping of the debate that -- >> not because he wasn't on the stage. i don't know he paid a price for that. but because he furthered a worry that will endure, that when challenged by a woman who isn't on board he bristles. that is not part of winneriness. and that is not part of his
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central trait, which is strength. that is called thin skinness. that is a troubling red flag sort of in the subconscious. and i think that gave people enough pause to take a look not just at cruz. i think his vote was locked and loaded. i saw them quickly in des moines yesterday. they had such a long lunch and looked so relaxed i thought they're either positive they're going to win or positive they're going to lose. and i think they were -- >> i've lived through a lot of election days and i never sat at a table for lunch for two hours. so they were so certain of what was going to happen today. trump clearly was not but i think rubio also took from trump. so i think -- but here's what i want -- >> trump handed rubio a lot more time on the debate stage. >> for sure. and rubio had a better debate night than cruz. but i think trump is capable of adjustment. so i wouldn't be surprised if he made some adjustments and came roaring back in new hampshire. we'll see. >> this is also -- not to beat a dead horse that is jeb bush. but jeb bush is also turning in
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really bad numbers tonight. he's at 3% right now. in iowa. jeb bush spent more money in iowa than anybody else. jeb bush has also spent more money nationwide on trying to destroy marco rubio, and we're now seeing what jeb bush is getting for all that money. >> and he has to worry about a rush to rubio from people who were bush people, including senators. is this the moment where a bunch of endorsements -- and by the way, if you're marco rubio and 12 senators call you up tomorrow and say i want tone doris he's going to say no, thank you. meaning let's pace this out very slowly and i want all your help and i want your mailing lists but please don't make me the establishment candidate tomorrow. >> on the democratic side we just learned that bernie sanders has apparently delayed his departure from des moines tonight, apparently in the face of the clinton campaign's self-declared victory, at least thus far. at any moment any of the news organizations could make that different. codify it as you were.
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we have not. that's right. too close to call, with 84% in. hallie jackson is going to be traveling on the cruz aircraft across the country to new hampshire overnight. chris matthews is inside our election headquarters in des moines. chris, a lot of news to catch up on since last we spoke. >> yeah. i think -- we've got robert costa here from the "washington post" tonight. we're trying to figure all this out because the buzzards are circling on trump, right? >> they are. >> it's already begun. and not just in the media but among politicians. and i do notice, brian and rachel, when you look at your chart there, of the returns tonight so far, 99%, in 98% in, you see 66% adding up of the republican voter tonight voted against the establishment. against -- even rubio is a two-toned candidate. he comes off as a bit establishment and a bit churchy and evangelical. a bit haubish.
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a bid moderate. as i said, he's got a piece for everybody. it was a smashing defeat for the establishment. george bush -- or jeb bush got nothing out here. nothing. in a state his father carried. his brother carried. nada. so a 2-1 anti-establishment party nominate marco rubio when you get down the stretch. >> they could because you look at the next contest new hampshire you have christie, kasich, who aren't really even playing hard here. they have a real shot at new hampshire. there is an establishment vote. >> that hurts rubio. >> that could hurt rubio. he's going to try to get a bounce, spin this as a big bounce. >> if trump wins in new hampshire does he go on to south carolina? he puts together 2 in a row after tonight. >> trump's biggest struggle in iowa weighs didn't have a organization on the ground to compete with cruz's network. in a straight primary when all anybody has to do is show up and sit in a gymnasium or church pew
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it's different. >> which is the case in new hampshire and south carolina. >> exactly. >> what are the trump people doing to show defeat and how they're adjusting it? >> according to my sources chuck laudner and his national chairman from iowa sam clovis are not in des moines. they're not with trump right now. they're at their homes at quaukus locations. everyone it's a tight-knit backsfaj at the sheraton hotel. trump's getting ready for his speech. from one person who's close to trump he's unhappy. >> well, hard in any athletic event is what do you do when you're behind? that's heart. does trump have heart? can he take this punch? you've watched him so many months. >> trump has often said his reaction tonight will say so much about his campaign. he hates to lose. he's said that a million times. but this is a test for trump. not just the organization in iowa but what he says when he gets on stage. >> i am so with you. this is going to be great drama. there's nothing like a concession speech, raich sxl brian. nothing like it. it tells you at the core what's there. and for trump he's going to have to tell us what's there left if
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you lose one tonight. brian. >> chris, you're so right. his choice of language right now, it's chilling if you've been around the politics to learn that someone's team is separated from them on a night when language really matters. let's go to rubio headquarters. ♪ you'll always be much more to me ♪ >> thank you. thank you. ♪ voices that keep telling me ♪ that's all right >> thank you. ♪ because i hear a voice and it calls me ♪ >> so this is the moment they said would never happen. [ cheers and applause ] for months they told us we had no chance. for months they told us because we offered too much optimism in a time of anger we had no chance. for months they told us because we didn't have the right endorsements or the right political connections we had no chance. they told me we had no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too
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high. [ cheers ] they told me i needed to wait my turn. that i needed to wait in line. >> this is your turn! [ cheers and applause ] >> but tonight, tonight here in iowa the people of this great state have sent a very clear message. after seven years of barack obama we are not waiting any longer to take our country back! [ cheers and applause ] this is not a time for waiting. for everything that makes this nation great now hangs in the balance. this is a time where we need a president that will truly preserve and protect and defend the constitution of the united states, not one that undermines, attacks, and ignores the constitution of the united
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stat states. [ cheers and applause ] this is the time for a president who will defend our second amendment rights, not a president who undermines them. this is a time for a president that will rebuild the u.s. military because the world is a safer and a better place when the united states has the most powerful military in the world. this is no ordinary election. 2016 is not just the choice between two political parties. 2016 is a referendum. it is a referendum on our identity as a nation and as a people. in america there are only two ways forward for us now. we can either be greater than we've ever been or we can be a great nation and decline. if bernie sanders or hillary clinton get elect ed -- if they were to win, we would be a great nation in decline. if they written, obamacare
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becomes permanent. if they win these unconstitutional executive orders from this president become permanent. if they win, our military continues to decline. and if they win, the balance of our supreme court will be controlled by liberal justices for over a decade or longer. they cannot win. hillary clinton is disqualified from being the president of the united states. [ cheers and applause ] because she stored classified and sensitive information on her e-mail server because she thinks she's above the law. and hillary clinton can never be commander in chief. because anyone who lies to the families of people who have lost their lives in the service of this country can never be commander in chief of the united states. [ cheers and applause ]
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and so tonight i thank you here in iowa. i thank you because tonight we have taken the first step, but an important step towards winning this election. if i am our nominee, and i will be your nominee thanks to what you have done here in this great sta state, when i am our nominee we are going to unify this party and we are going to unify the conservative movement. when i'm our nominee, we are going to grow the conservative movement. we are going to take our message to the people who are struggling paycheck to paycheck. to the students living under the burden of student loans. to the families struggling to raise their children with the right values. we will take our message to them, and we will bring them to our side. when i am our nominee, we will unite our party. we will grow our party. and we will defeat hillary clinton or bernie sanders or
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whoever they nominate. [ cheers and applause ] i want to thank an all-powerful and mighty god. for the chance that he has given us to be a part of this endeavor here in iowa. it's been a phenomenal experience. i want to thank my wife and my family. [ cheers and applause ] i want to congratulate my friend, senator ted cruz. he worked really hard here in iowa. and he earned his victory tonight. [ applause ] i want to thank another good friend of mine, governor mike huckabee, for his service to our country, to the state of arkansas. he has announced tonight that he is suspending his campaign. we have tremendous admiration for governor huckabee, and we thank him for all he's done.
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[ applause ] two centuries ago an extraordinary generation living in one place at one time here in america, colonists of an english colony, declared their independence from the most powerful empire in the world. they did it with the powerful words and principle that our rights come from our creator. they do not come from our government. and the rest is a two-century history of the most extraordinary nation in the history of mankind. i know america's special because i was raised by people that knew what life was like outside of america. i was raised by people who came to this country with nothing. they barely spoke english at the time. they had no money. my father stopped going to school when he was 9 years old. he had to go work. he would never go back to school. he would work for the next 70 years of his life.
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when my parents arrived here in this country, they struggled. they were discouraged. but they persevered. less than a decade after they arrived here with nothing, my father, a bartender on miami beach, they openwned a home. not a mansion but a safe and stable home in a safe and stable neighborhood. decades later they would retire with dignity and with security. and the most important thing of all for them, they left all four of their children with a life better than their own. this is the purpose of my parents' life. to give their kids, us, the chance to do all the things they never could. that's not just my story. that's our story. that's america's story. that's the story of your parents. you know the stories. of your parents, who sacrificed and gave up so much so you could be what they could not. it's the stories of those parents today who are doing the same for their children.
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it is this that makes america special. and it is this what we fight now to preserve. this is the kind of country that i want to leave for my children. this is the kind of country your children deserve to inherit as well. and this is what we must now decide, whether we will remain that kind of country or whether we will be the first generation to lose it. it's an important choice. and one that each generation before us has had to make. for america is not a special country by accident. america is a great nation because each generation before us did their part. each generation before us sacrificed. they confronted their challenges. they embraced their opportunities. and for over two centuries each generation has left the next better off than themselves. now the time has come for us to do the same. now the moment has arrived for this generation of americans to rise up to the calling of our heritage. now the time has come for us to
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take our place and do what we must. and when i'm elected president of these great united states, we will do our part. [ cheers and applause ] when i -- [ cheers and applause ] when i am elected president, when we together achieve this victory, we will embrace all of the principles that made america great and we will apply them to the unique challenges of this new centery. and when our work is done, here is what history will say of this generation. it will say that we lived in the early years of this new century in an uncertain and difficult time but we remembered who we
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were. we rose up to the challenge of our time. we confronted our problems. and we solved them. and because we did, the american dream didn't just survive, it reached more people and changed more lives than ever before. because we did our children and our grandchildren grew up to be the freest and most prosperous americans that ever lived. because we did what needed to be done. the 21st century wasn't just as good as the 20th century. it was better. it was a new american century. [ cheers and applause ] this is the task before us. and i thank my lord and savior jesus christ. i thank god for allowing me the opportunity to come this far with each of you. i am grateful to you, iowa.
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you believed in me when others didn't think this night would be possible, when perhaps you were lost in the daily narrative. when some suggested that perhaps it was time to step aside. you believed in me. you walked with us. you made the calls and knocked on doors. you made a huge difference tonight. we are going to be back. i will be back here in october next year and september of next -- of this year because -- i said next year. i'll be back next year too. but i'll be back in october. and september of this year. because when i'm our nominee we are going to win iowa and we are going to win this election for this country. [ cheers and applause ]
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and so iowa, thank you so much. we will never forget you. we will see you soon again. and new hampshire, we will see you in the morning. thank you and god bless you. [ cheers and applause ] thank you very much. >> from marco rubio, who in a media sense very smartly got out, had an open field here. just finished up at 10:48. ten minutes from the start of the late local news on the east coast. sew was able to get his message unfettered and uncomplicated out pre new hampshire. let's go to katy tur at trump headquarters. katy, when do we expect to see donald trump? >> we're told that donald trump would be taking the stage right after marco rubio finished his speech. so i assume that means any moment right now. what i can tell you is that these supporters at donald trump's headquarters here are more subdued than we've ever seen any supporters at any of
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his rallies. in fact, they started clapping for marco rubio when his speech played over the big screens here. clapping when he talked about hillary clinton not being qualified to be president. clapping when he talked about supporting veterans and protecting veterans. so certainly not a good night for donald trump. especially with how well rubio did. and the campaign will be huddling together and trying to figure out exactly what they did wrong, what they could have done better and what they need to do going into new hampshire to recapture that momentum. back to you. >> all right, katy, language really counts tonight. over to andrea mitchell at clinton headquarters? oh, here we are. trump entering the ballroom. just about make him out beyond the electronic devices. >> let me just note as donald trump takes the stage here, one of the down ticket points of interest right now is rand paul appears to have come in ahead of jeb bush in new hampshire.
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>> thank you very much. thank you. [ cheers and applause ] thank you very much. i love you people. i love you people. thank you. and we finished second, and i want to tell you something, i'm just honored. i'm really honored and i want to congratulate ted and i want to
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congratulate all of the incredible candidates, including mike huckabee, who's become a really good friend of mine. so congratulations to everybody. congratulations. i want to thank all of the folks that worked with us. we had a great team and we will continue to have a great team, and we're just so happy with the way everything worked out, and most importantly, i have to thank my wife and laura and eric and vanessa and don. they went out and they were doing speeches and -- in fact, don and eric, i think you did around six speeches today. i just want to thank my family. they have been so amazing and so supportive, and we've had every indication, we're going on now, we're a poll, 28 points ahead, okay? new hampshire, we love new hampshire. we love south carolina. and we're leaving tonight, and
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tomorrow afternoon we'll be in new hampshire, and that will be something special. it's going to be a great week and we're going to be up here next weekend, and i think we're going to be proclaiming victory, i hope. i will say this -- i don't know who's going to win twee bernie and hillary. i don't know what's going to happen with hillary. other problems, maybe bigger than the problems she's got in terms of nominations, but we've had so many different indications and polls that we beat her and we beat her easily, and we will go on to get the republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat hillary or bernie, or whoever the hell they throw up there. iowa, we live you. we thank you. you're special. we will be back many, many times. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it. okay. thank you. thank you, everybody. thank you. thank you very much.
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>> notice to agriculture business. you may have company. donald trump easily the shortest speech he has given of this campaign season. easily the shortest speech he has given in iowa. the only speech, to our knowledge, where he has expressed -- >> on to new hampshire. so long, everybody. >> -- interest in farming. >> also ignoring the other ed h ideaogmatic are buying a farm. >> yes. and the blown kiss. going off to fly east saying they will be in new hampshire tomorrow afternoon. perhaps they are going to fly into new york for the night. we were in the process of checking in with andrea mitchell and clinton headquarters, and i'm wondering if she is still in a position to be able to hear us. andrea, what do you have from there? >> reporter: the clinton
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campaign claiming that they have won. this could be relying on the super delegates. the state party in their format. i know you've got your own nbc projections. the state party says it's a 50/50 race with 90% reporting. so too close to call, but clinton, representing t establishment wing of the party, as you and chuck todd were reporting. seems to me, trying to come out and preempt anything bernie sandsers might say and a top official of the sanders campaign telling me it is very, very tight. the reality this is as close a race as it could be. >> andrea mitchell from clinton headquarters. we have talked privately about this idea of super delegates. >> yeah. >> again, we are bound by no legal authority here. if something happens to the candidate, super delegates will be, over here delegates. >> in terms of delegates, if we
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have to get to delegates, yes, ted cruz has won iowa. that enmoos technically speaking that ted cruz going to get six delegates. donald trump and marco rubio five delegates. count the delegates, equivalent one to between hillary clinton and bernie sanders is three between them. raidsor th razor then. they're chosen to go to the democratic convention to cast their, their vote at the national convention for the nominee. i mean, it's not that complicated, but ultimately you expect a race that isn't so close that you have to pay attention to these numbers. >> yeah. >> right now tonight in iowa, this is -- >> you're calling that close? >> i mean, this is a stunner for a number of reasons. step back a second. donald trump was expected to win iowa on the republican side. he was winning in the last eight straight polls. donald trump has not won.
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he has been upset by ted cruz. that, itself, is remarkable. marco rubio just gave a victory speech for coming in third, but ted cruz is the guy who came up with the big upset tonight. on the democratic side, to have it be 50/50. literally 50/50 right now between hillary clinton and bernie sanders is itself a stunning result. on top of that, for the clinton campaign, to be declaring victory when it has not been called by news organizations and they're calling it themselves. we still have 10% of the tally we are expecting in on the democratic sued. that itself, a strategic gambit is amazing. >> a coronation to describe hillary clinton's route to the nomination of her party. a quick break. we're back at the top of the hour, 11:00 okay the east coast. 10:00 central.
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