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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  February 1, 2016 8:00pm-11:01pm PST

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he's at a town hall meeting tonight in new hampshire. fiorina. huckabee, who's suspending his campaign. chris christie. this is the story at this hour. the equivalent delegate count we've been talking about tonight. the most important verbiage on that graphic is in the inner left-hand corner.
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too close to call with 90% in at 11:00 three hours after doors close. they are going to declare. >> with 90% out it becomes very, very important at this point what the remaining 10% are. steve kornacki's been watching that in terms of what's outstanding still in iowa. what are we waiting for, steve? >> by my count right count rig changing by the minute. there are approximately 140 precincts in the entire state of iowa right now that have not reported on the democratic side. now, doing some back of the energy calculations here, more of those precincts are in
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counties that are going for hillary clinton tonight than for bernie sanders. she has an advantage there. she also had an advantage in that the single, biggest cluster of outstanding is in polk county. des moines, the biggest county in the state. hillary clinton's been leading there by between eight and ten points tonight. the biggest, single precincts, 20, or 30 outstanding are in polk. that said, there are a couple college counties, story. iowa state. blackhawk, university of northern iowa. the city of davenport. some outstanding precincts there, i should say. some sanders area. some high concentration of sanders supporters as well. it is tough to see looking at that either can a, oh, yeah, i'm confident of winning. confidently hearing the clinton campaign say they are winning the primary. when he lost, came out by eight
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points. early that night, a fateful decision, a tied rate. declared victory, called himself a comeback kid, might as well be a win. history remembers him the comeback kid and forgets paul tsongas one. >> the declaration can be everything. obviously, weigh this out, interesting, even psychological gambit by the clinton campaign to say they won. if you had to guess based on prevention experience and that list of precincts just described, when do you think we're going to have these numbers? >> we could be going into the wee hours here. you see it on the screen. remind everybody, these are not votes, delegate equivalents. that is as close to a tie without being a tie pretty much as you're going to get. when you're within five here, the fact you have any outstanding precincts at all
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makes it difficult for one of these sides to declare. now, again, we're saying, look, these precincts are more in clinton counties than sanders counties and at a point we have to think there are sanders sections of clinton counties and clinton sections of sanders countieses, and we don't know, is this a sanders section? for instance? in polk. another variable to throw in the mix. >> i'm having such a good time, i can hardly see it. >> steve kornacki, looking at numbers. incredible turn of events. at sanders headquarters, casey, it's going to be say no matter which slice of the way this comes down, for this independent who sits with the democrats at school to have given the clinton campaign machine in iowa this much of a run before the night is over they could, of course, win it. this could go either way, what an incredible turn of events. >> reporter: it is an incredible
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turn of events, brian. so much so that the bernie sanders campaign delayed the takeoff of their, the chartered flight that they have taking the senator and the traveling press corps to new hampshire. they were very adamant when we first got here, wheels up 10:25 p.m. central time sharp. which meant we vo have all been out of here before you started the top of the hour 11:00 p.m. eastern hour. we are still here. departure delay of an hour because the senator wants to see these results. they clearly were not expecting this to be so close for so long. i talked to sanders advisers yesterday, expected to know early, walk out, make a speech, take off and go on to the next thing. now they tell me they're expecting this could be in the single digits. we obviously know there are 1,400-plus delegates at stake here for it to come down to under ten delegates is remarkable. you're right, brian.
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this is somebody who is such an unlikely person to challenge hillary clinton in this way. we've talked so much about whether this is the candidate who is like barack obama was in 2008. the reality is, barack obama was a very different candidate. he was historic in being, you know, the first african-american to take this on in a way that was potentially going all the way. he was somebody who people, he had been a star in the democratic party. that speech he gave at that 2004 democratic convention. bernie sanders has none of that. he's known as this 74-year-old kind of curmudgeonly independent, wears bad suits, very little spacious. stop a patience, answer one question, be quickly done and go off. of course, he's been an independent. that is actually something i've heard from a lot of people i've talked to over the course of the last week about why he appeals to them so much. as much as we've were talked
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about how outsiders are resonating, in many ways that independent label that actually helped him in this democratic primary here, or excuse me, democratic caucus here in iowa, brian. >> all right, kasie hunt as we look at the pictures, we broadcast earlier, of senator sanders. characteristically pacing in front of the television. hoping stevie wonder works wonders keeping that crowd energized for the senator's ultimate appearance. and chris matthews and chuck todd. chris matthews first in des moines. >> you know i think that picture of bernie sanders in the hotel room will either be matched with a sad night for him or a very close victory. it is going to matter how these 10% come in later tonight. i think there's an old phrase in politics called no cigar. there's no second place. and win or lose, won't have to do with super delegates. by the way, chuck was talking how the clintons were able to snain '92 primary in new hampshire. it actually didn't work out that way exactly.
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clinton never told everybody he won. he simply said he had overcome bad expectations after the draft letter had come out that wednesday before. able to get himself back in contention. he never won. he lost by eight. i was there the next morning when both he and tsongas came in. clinton acted with about eight blue suits around him lime he won. grabbed a doughnut in front of me. tsongas came in, can i have a doughnut here? nobody thought he'd won the primary. everybody knew tsongas won by eight. numbers matter tonight. these next 10% are going to decide so much. hillary clinton can't take this loss. bernie can't. if she loses, she loses. it's said all day, she has to win today. nothing to declare with the victory declaration. i think that bernie doesn't suffer the same defeat.
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we got to stick around, guys, another three hours to find out who won. it's going to matter, these points. >> did we say we were going anywhere? we're not going anywhere. >> i don't think it's going to hat the martter -- it's going t matter down to the vote. lis last time around, santorum won lie eight. we'll get a count tonight. >> i love me some, chris matthews, but i disagree. i think this point getting this close is such a big victory for bernie sanders that even if he ends up losing by a hair, which is all anybody's going to lose by here, it's still so good for him, and for hillary clinton to have let bernie sanders get this close, even if she ekes 0 ut a victory, all of the stories tomorrow are all going to be about, and all the momentum about how well he did, and highway did pe looks going into new hampshire where he's leading by a mile. i'm curious to see who wins iowa. at this point, delegates the
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same and story line the same. regardless of the way this ends up with these last few precincts still to come in. we'll see how it feels when it happens, but i understand why bernie's sticking it out in aye wa tonight. >> in fact, we'll know tomorrow wethary victory is declared or not. i predict a victor declared. >> chris matthews, thank. over to chuck todd, also in des moines. chuck, you interviewed john podesta, 5:00 eastern time, "meet the press" daily. he looked you in the eye, of the sanders threat, oh, no. we saw this coming. >> right. i think they always knew somebody would be a challenger to them. i don't think they ever saw it as sanders at that time. they thought something could pop up. that part of it was inevitable and on that score, i take them at theirs word, but i have to say, i just don't understand why the clinton campaign decided to do what they did an hour ago and declare victory. maybe they will win.
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but they have now made, made it that much worse if they lose. or if it's a tie. or something like that. if they are not the winner now tonight, it is that much worse for them. they sort of have created more of a story than was necessary. look, i agree with rachel in this respect. look, this is a remarkably close race, delegates split, although i do believe in the case of clinton, a win is a win. a loss would be more devastating to her, surviving, she gets to do something no clinton has ever done. which is win iowa. even if it's by one delegate. they will have done something there, and i'm sorry, this is an electorate and contest tailor-made for bernie sanders. so while even if he comes one delegate short i could argue, if he couldn't knock her off here, where can he knock her off in a state that doesn't touch
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vermont? right? so that's why i think psychologically clinton desperately needs to win by a point, even a loss by a point is a psychological blow when if comes. i guess we're watching now. i don't get why they declared victory. >> chuck, looking ahead, obviously new hampshire is next and it touches vermont and bernie sanders has a big lead there and everybody has their eyes on south carolina in terms of the hillary clinton having that big lead, particularly among black voters in south carolina, but south carolina isn't third. nevada is in there, too, and nevada is also a caucus state. there were some perplexing results in the 2008 race in the nevada caucuses. anything about this caucus in iowa and surprising results tonight that speak to how things might go down in nevada? it might end up being way more expected than we expected. >> i believe you're going do see sanders be -- the contest he
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wins down the road, i expect him to win more caucuses than hillary clinton. i think that's what we learned tonight. he does have the organization to do that. iowa, yobbio obviously, hillary put a lot more effort into winning this one. watching what we're seeing tonight, probably sanders does have a shot in nevada. i think nevada is another caucus state, though, that hillary clinton's campaign wants to put an extra effort in, but you've got a minnesota that's on super tuesday. colorado on super tuesday. the march 1 super tuesday. those are places that probably give sanders a slight edge. let me go back to new hampshire here. bernie sanders does have one new hampshire problem. his lead is so big. right? it's sitting at 20 to 30 points, depending on the poll you look at. this is a state that has been very good to the clintons. when you see a week of campaigning, does suddenly a bernie sanders seven-point win not look as impressive if
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somehow hillary clinton massively closes that gap here? so i do think that the public polling perception does give hillary clinton sort of, almost a free ride in new hampshire to potentially close the gap and change that story line a little bit. >> chuck, please, don't make any other plans for the night. we need your advice and counsel. 15 minutes after 11:00. we are going to fit a break in with the proviso that we're awaysing three big speeches. we've yet to hear from ted cruz, bernie sanders, hillary clinton. we will blow out of said break if they begin. otherwise, our live coverage continues just on the other side.
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we told you prior to going to the break that there were three people we had yet to hear from. ted cruz, hillary clinton, bernie sanders. on the democratic side, it's really yet to be decided, unless
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you ask the self-declaring clinton campaign. we don't have that officially. certainly not via nbc news. but this is the victor tonight on the republican side. congressman steve king who was with him every mile, every bus stop. ted cruz. his daughters are up awfully late as well. >> his wife is there with him as well. we just saw there. heidi cruz. >> perhaps going without a podium. he has a hand-held mike. >> can you see there, if you're interested in that democratic race on the very bottom part of your screen, that's the status between hillary clinton and bernie sanders right now. we're at 94% of the democratic vote in. still too close to call according to nbc news, but again, the hillary clinton campaign is saying that they won. that's going to make it a very interesting speech from either hillary clinton or bernie sanders right now tonight. presumably that will happen sometime soon. here's ted cruz. [ cheers and applause ]
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>> god bless the great state of iowa! >> let me first of all say, to god be the glory. tonight is a victory for the grass roots. tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation.
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tonight the state of iowa has spoken. iowa has sent notice that the republican nominee and the next president of the united states will not be chosen by the media. will not be chosen by the washington establishment. will not be chosen by the lobbyists. but will be chosen by the most incredible, powerful force where all sovereignty resides in our nation by we the people, the
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american people. tonight, thanks to the incredible hard work of everyone gathered here, of courageous conservatives across this state, we together earn the votes of 48,608 iowans. to put it in perspective, your incredible victory that you have won tonight that is the most votes ever cast for any republican primary winner. >> all: ted!
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ted! ted! ted! ted! >> tonight is a victory for millions of americans, who have shouldered the burden of seven years of washington deals run amuck. tonight is a victory for every american who's watched in dismay as career politicians in washington in both parties refuse to listen and too often failed to keep their commitments to the people. tonight is a victory for every american who understands that after we survive eight long years of the obama presidency, that no one personality can right the wrongs done by washington. the millions who understand that it is a commitment to the constitution, to our shared insimpson that we rise and return to a higher standard, the very standard that gave birth to
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the greatest nation that the world has ever known. to the revolutionary understanding that all men and all women are created equal. that our rights to not come from the democratic party or the republican party, or even from the tea party. our rights come from our creator. and the federal government's role, the federal government's responsibility, is to defend those fundamental rights, to defend us. and while americans will continue to suffer under a president who has set an agenda that is causing millions to hurt across this country, i want to
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remind you of the promise of scripture. weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. tonight, iowa has proclaimed to the world, morning is coming. morning is coming. from day one this campaign has been a movement from millions of americans across this country to organize, to rally to come together, whatever washington says, they cannot keep the people down. and tonight is a testament to the people's commitments to their yearnings to get back to
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our core commitment, free market principles, constitutional liberties, and a judeo-christian values that built this great nation. when the washington lobbyists settled on other candidates in this race, when the media in one voice said a conservative cannot win, nationwide, over 800,000 contributions poured in to tedcruz.org and courageous conservatives said, yes, we can! 800,000 contribution contributions @tedcruz.org with an average contribution of $67. that is the power of the grass roots.
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but the more than that. it's 12,000 volunteers here in the state of iowa. it's over 200,000 volunteers all across this great nation. you know, during the course of this campaign, people have asked heidi and me, are you tired? and i will admit, it is 16, 18 hours a day, six, seven days a week -- we are not tired at all.
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to the contrary. we are inspired by each and every one of you. i leap out of bed every morning amazed that at a time when our country is in crisis, every one of us has the opportunity to stand and lead that we have been put in a place of leadership for such a time as this. >> we are going to transition, having heard the lion's share of ted cruz's victory speech, with great interest as to what the clinton campaign is going to say, the entire family is on the stage. >> -- an unbelievable night. what a great campaign. this has been -- an incredible honor to campaign across iowa with so many of you, to make the case for the kind of future we want, for the democratic party
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and for the united states of america! there is so much at stake in this election, i don't need to tell you. every single one of you who came out for me, who worked so many hours, from my young organizers with energy and passion -- [ cheers and applause ] to the families and friends across this state. i am deeply grateful. >> man: we love you, hillary! >> well, i love you. but here's what i want you to know -- it is rare -- it is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas. to really think hard about what the democratic party stands for, and what we want the future of
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our country to look like, if we do our part to build it. i am a progressive who gets things done for people. i am honored to stand in the long line of american reformers, who make up our minds that the status quo is not good enough. that standing still is not an option, and that brings people together to find ways forward that will improve the lives of americans. i look back over the years of my involvement from that very first job i had at the children's defense fund, and i know -- [ applause ] -- i know what we are capable of doing. i know we can create more good paying jobs and raise incomes for hard-working americans again. i know that we can finish the
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job of universal health care coverage for every single man, woman and child. i know -- i know we can combat climate change and be the clean super power of the 20th century. i know we can make the education system work for every one of our children, especially those who come with disadvantages. i know we can make colleges affordable and get student debt off the backs of young people, and i know we can protect our rights, women's rights, gay rights, voting rights, immigrant rights, workers' rights. i know, too, we can stand up to the gun lobby and get common sense gun safety measures!
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[ cheers and applause ] and how do we do that? we do that -- we do that by securing the nomination, and then we do it by winning and going into that white house as others before have determined to push forward on the great goals and values that unite us as americans. i congratulate -- i congratulate my esteems friends and opponents. i wish governor o'malley the very best. he's a great public servant who has served maryland and our country, and i am excited about really getting into the debate with senator sanders about the best way forward to fight for us in america! in the last few weeks -- in the last few week wes finally began
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to have what i think is one of the most important substantive conversations, that the democratic party could have, and i am -- i am thrilled at all of the people who are playing a part in that. i know that we may have differences of opinion about how best to achieve our goals, but i believe we have a very clear idea that the democratic party and this campaign stands for what is best in america, and we have to be united -- [ cheers ] -- when it is all said and done. we have to be united against a republican vision and candidates who would drive us apart and divide us. that is not who we are, my friends. i followed their campaign very
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closely. i understand what they're appealing to, and i intend to stand against it. i will not -- i will not let their divisiveness, their efforts to rip away the progress that we've made be successful. because we can't afford that. so as i stand here tonight breathing a big sigh of relief -- thank you, iowa! [ cheers and applause ] i want you to know, i will keep doing what i have done my entire life. i will keep standing up for you. i will keep fighting for you. i will always work to achieve the america that i believe in, where the promise of that dream that we hold out to our children and our grandchildren never fades, but inspires generations to come. join me!
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let's go win the nomination! thank you all, and god bless you! >> so to review, tonight, as she has an embrace from her daughter chelsea and her husband the former president, we have heard a gracious speech from donald trump. we have heard a thankful speech from ted cruz, and a call to arms from hillary clinton, though shying away from whether this is a victory speech or not, because -- >> it's not sure. >> we don't know. at least we as a news organization don't know. they have declared victory on paper based on returns from iowa tonight. >> she had explicitly kind, gracious words for martin o'malley, who we believe is is a e suspending his campaign and leaving tonight due to expectedly poor results, and when it came time to talk about senator sanders, again, some who
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nbc says is in a race that is still too close to call with hillary clinton with 95% of the tally in on the democratic side, when it came to senator sanders what she had to say, she was excited to get into the debate with senator sanders and then she said, and iowa, i'm breathing a big sigh of relief. i think that means that she believes they have won. she did not say it in as many words. >> as close as she got. >> yeah. >> kasie hunt is at sanders' headquarters. kasie what can you add from there. >> reporter: a little color from the room here as hillary clinton was making that victory/non-victory speech, of course, we saw what they said initially. she didn't seem to go that far, but when she came up on the screen here, there was booing from the crowd and there was particularly loud booing when she declared, i am a progressive, that, of course, one of the things that has united many of these bernie sanders supporters, this idea of being a progressive versus being
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a democrat or even a liberal democrat. the other thing i will say in what is an example of the sanders campaign, knowing its audience its voters and fans, as hillary clinton was wrapping up that speech, they brought up the theme from rocky on the speakers here. so -- a little touch of humor from the sanders campaign. >> and so we wait. we wait to hear from bernie sanders. anything behind you? i see them -- does this mean -- i guess they're just applauding kasie hunt on the big screen tv. wow. >> reporter: they have been very excited to see you guys on early occasions, i have to say tonight. the other detail, occasionally their feed of msnbc has frozen. that happened twice at hillary clinton was speaking and that did prompt wild cheer. >> call your local cable operators. >> at point of cheering for technical difficulties. i know that time of night and how that it goes.
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gene robinson, your opinion on the declare by the clinton campaign it's a win. what do you think about this st strategically and the impact of what this decision means? >> just for the minute, the last our of tonight, what does she do? stepped on ted cruz's speech. took away the spotlight, kind of a breach of protocol. you don't speak when yore candidate -- especially the guy who's the big winner -- she came out in an alpha dog sort of thing to do. right? >> sure. >> and she put down her marker. she, you know, she was able to act like and sound like an optimistic win beer who was going on to the next state. now, if she turns out not to have actually won, it becomes problematic, but clearly the clinton campaign believes that she will, you know, get tiny little victory.
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50/49. what that doesn't do is answer the question within the democratic party. it doesn't bring the two democratic parties together, that hillary clinton and bernie sanders represent. >> no. that's a long way off yet. this race is in-the-early stages. the one thing we can say for sure. >> nicolle, one second. we have to go to break. we'll come back and resume our conversation, right after this.
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they may have exhausted all the music in the world able to play, but at sanders headquarters, they have been trying to keep the crowd in the game and pumped up. we are told he is on his way into the room. this is what's on their minds right now -- you see our call, too close to call. 656-653. a difference of three. 94% of the calculus the democrats put into tonight's result, state-wide result, is in, and this is what separates these two candidates. we have just heard from former secretary of state hillary clinton. again, a call to arms. and this -- this will be the next interesting speech to
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watch. >> senator bernie sanders of vermont started off this race by saying, do not underestimate me. the crowd sizes at his rally said the same thing. his record-breaking fund-raising said the same thing. his surprising and then rocketing poll numbers said the same thing. and now this performance in iowa has put an exclamation point on that message. "do not underestimate bernie sanders." he's got the economic message of lelizabeth warren, combined it with someone holding public office for decades. he is off the number charts, for what the beltway considers serious politics but he is a serious politician and he has brought it to at least 50/50 tonight in iowa. steve kornacki joins us while we're awaiting bernie sanders at his headquarters. >> where the numbers stand, outstanding precincts. down now to 107 outstanding precincts in iowa.
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what i can tell you is that 70, 7-0, of those 107 precincts are in counties that hillary clinton is leading in, or is carrying tonight. the biggest concentration of precincts still out there is in the state county, polk county, that area. still 20, 22 precincts that have not reported there. that is a hillary clinton county. leading by about ten points. she also has, there are a number of rural counties, those you wouldn't have heard of scattered around the state. six there, those are clinton counties. getting about 60% in tonight. for bernie sanders two places left in the state he may make up ground. cedar rapids, eastern part of state. leading in that county. a handful of precincts left there and also blackhawk county where the university of northern iowa is. a couple of precincts just reported in the last five
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minutes that cut clinton's need. still some precincts out. one of those college counties where he could still make up some ground. we don't know exactly where these precincts lie in each county but can tell you disproportionately from clinton counties, the ones that are left. >> and chuck todd listening from des moines. chuck, what do you feel like adding to this plot line, which, if it backfires on the self-declared clinton campaign is going to be, dewey defeats truman, it is. it was a mistake. one of the reasons why you just saw the gap close against for sanders, the gentleman that runs, helps run the consortium runs delicate county and this and that, in dallas county, basically a suburban county outside of des moines here, a reporting error, too many delegates overall and as that was corrected, that sort of
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helped shrink that margin a little bit, which is a reminder, when it's this close, there's going to be some rechecking of data. so reporting errors could take place. you know? it's human error. some handwritten. you never know. i have to say, i am surprised bernie sanders waited until this late allowing hillary clinton to go first. i'm with rachel here. he should have seized the day and said, declared success, but by the way, here he is. so i'll hand it back to you. >> 15 minutes to midnight on the east coast. [ cheers and applause ] [ cheers and applause ] [ chanting ] [ chanting ]
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>> all: we want bernie! we want bernie! we want bernie! >> thank you! iowa, thank you! [ cheers and applause ] >> nine months ago we came to this beautiful state, had we had no political organization. we had no money, we had no name recognition and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the united states of america. [ cheers and applause ] and tonight while the results are still not known, it looks
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like we are in a virtual tie. [ cheers and applause ] [ cheers and applause ] >> and -- and while -- >> all: bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! >> -- and while the results are still not complete, it looks like we'll have about half of the iowa delegates. [ cheers and applause ]
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>> i want to take this opportunity to congratulate secretary clinton as somebody -- yep. [ applause ] and her organization for waging a very vigorous campaign, and i want to thank governor o'malley. [ applause ] it's -- it's never easy to lose. i've lost more than one campaign, but he should know -- he should know that he contributed a whole lot to the dialogue, that he ran an issue-oriented campaign and he won the respect of the american people. [ cheers and applause ] >> as i think about what happened tonight, i think the people are iowa have sent a very profound message to the
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political establishment, to the economic establishment and, by the way, to the media establishment. [ cheers and applause ] [ chanting ] >> and that is -- and that is, given the enormous crises facing our country, it is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics. [ cheers and applause ] what the american people have said -- and by the way, i hear this not just from progressives, i hear it from conservatives, i hear it from moderates, and that is we can no longer continue to
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have a corrupt campaign finance system -- [ cheers and applause ] -- i am the former chairman of the senate veterans committee, and in that capacity not only have i worked hard to try to protect the interests of our veterans, i've had the privilege of meeting so many men and women who put their lives on the line to defend us, and protect our way of life, and -- what they were protecting is an american democracy of one person, one vote, not billionaire billionaires buying electorates! [ cheers and applause ] i am overwhelmed, and i am moved by the fact that millions of people throughout this country have helped volunteer in our
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campaign, that three -- we have received in this campaign 3.5 million individual contributi s contributions. people who went to berniesanders.com, and you know what the average contribution was? it was $27. [ cheers and applause ] we do not represent the interests of the billionaire class, wall street or corporate america. we don't want their money. we will -- and i am very proud to tell you that we are the only candidate on the democratic side without a super pac. [ cheers and applause ]
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and the reason that we have done so well here in iowa, the reason i believe we're going to do so well in new hampshire and in the other states that follow, the reason is -- the american people are saying, "no" to a rigged economy. they no longer want to see an economy in which the average american works longer hours for low wages, while almost all new income and wealth is going to the top 1%. [ cheers and applause ] what the american people understand is, this country was based and is based on fairness, on fairness. it is not fair when the top 0.1
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of 1% today owns almost as much as the bottom 90%. it is not fair when the 20 wealthiest people in this country own more wealth than the bottom half of america. so you guys ready for a radical idea? [ cheers and applause ] well, so is america, and that radical idea is, we are going to create an economy that works for working families, not just the billionaire class. and, yes, when millions of our people are, would go for starvation wages, we are going
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to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. and, yes, we are going to have pay equity for women. now, i've been all over this beautiful state of iowa. we have spoken to some 70,000 people, and in meeting after meeting i hear people standing up and they say, bernie, i went to college. i graduated college. now i am $60,000, $80,000, $100,000 in debt nap is crazy. that is crazy. people should not be punished financially because they want to get a decent education. [ cheers and applause ] and that is why i believe that
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in the year 2016, public colleges and universities should be tuition-free. and then my critics say, well, bernie, that's a great idea. it's all of this free stuff. how you going to pay for it? i will tell you how we're going to pay for it. we are going to impose a tax on wall street speculation. the greed, the recklessness and the illegal behavior of wall street drove this economy to its knees. the american people bailed out wall street. now it's wall street's time to help the middle class.
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and when we talk about transforming america, we will end the disgrace of having more people in jail than any other country. disproportionately african-american and latino. what we are going to do is provide jobs and education for our kids, not more jails and incarceration. and i'll tell you something that really does astound me. i'm on the senate energy committee, i'm on the senate environment committee, i have talked to scientists all over the world. the debate is over. climate change is real. [ cheers and applause ] and we have a moral
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responsibility to work with countries throughout the world to transform our energy system away from fossil fuel to energy-efficiency and sustainable energy. and what amazes me, what totally amazes me, is that we have not one republican candidate for president prepared to come up and tell us and agree with what virtually all scientists agree with. and you know why they are not prepared to do that? because on the day that they do acknowledge the reality of climate change, and call for change, you know whats? they're going to lose their campaign funds from the coke brothers and the fossil fuel industry.
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so i say to the republicans, stop worrying about your campaign funds from big oil or the coke brothers or the coal industry. worry about the planet you're going to be leaving your children and your grandchildren. now -- i have been criticized during this campaign for many, many things. every single day. that's okay. that's okay. but -- [ cheers and applause ] but -- let me repeat what i believe. i believe that at a time when every major country on earth
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guarantees health care to all people as a right, i believe that we should do the same in the united states of america. so for all of my critics out there in the "wall street journal" and "the washington post" and in corporate america, wherever you may be, let me tell you straight up -- yes, i believe that health care is a right, not a privilege. [ cheers and applause ] and that is why i believe in a medicare for all, single payer program which will not only guarantee health care to all, it will not only end the pharmaceutical rip-off of the american people -- but it will save the middle class family -- the average middle class family,
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thousands of dollars a year in health care costs. let me conclude by saying what no other candidate for president will tell you. and that is that no president, not bernie sanders, not anybody else, will be able to bring about the changes that the working families and the middle class of this country, that our children, that the seniors, our seniors deserve. no one president can do it, because the powers that be, wall street with their endless supply of money, corporate america, the large campaign donors, are so powerful, that no president can do what has to be done alone. and that is why -- and that is why what iowa has begun tonight is a political revolution.
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a political revolution that says, when millions of people come together, including those who have given up on the political process. they're so dismayed and so frustrated with what goes on in washington, with young people who before had never been involved in the political process, when young people and working people and seniors begin to stand up and say loudly and clearly, enough -- >> all: enough is enough! >> that the government, the government of our great country belongs to all of us and not just a handful of billionaires. when that happens we will transform this country. thank you all very much. [ cheers and applause ]
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♪ >> embrace from his wife jane. we called hillary's speech a call to arms. what does that make this? >> well, by one count this makes it the fourth victory speech of the night tonight. a victory speech from marco rubio. coming in third on the republican side. and then ted cruz coming in first on the republican side. we got a victory speech from hillary clinton. declaring with a sigh of relief that she was thanking iowa and we think that was a victory speech, because her campaign says that she won. we just got what sounded an awful lot like a victory speech from bernie sanders and calling it a virtual tie at this point. we should remind viewers nbc news has not called this race. still considers it to be too close to call, with 95% of the tally in on the democratic side. so -- you know, everybody wins. everybody gets a trophy. >> everybody gets a trophy.
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andrea mitchell standing by at clinton headquarters. andrea, this is the time of the evening, the shank of the evening, where we ask, what have we learned? so, andrea what have we learned. >> reporter: i think we learned that they were in a meltdown as this race got close are and closer, and they started, you know, e-mailing that they were going to win, because they felt that polk county and dubuque county, there are strongholds, still had not been counted, and this was the first hint of anything from them all night saying that they were going to win. so we transmitted that to you pointing out that nbc news and no one else declared them the victors and they came out here having said that chelsea clinton, bill clinton and then hillary clinton were going to speak. instead what you saw was her saying without any comments from her husband or her daughter that she was breathing a sigh of relief. now in leaving here, she has
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tweeted personally, you know, thank you, iowa. from the bottom of my heart. so it is not a victory declaration, but they're trying to make it appear to be. it is somewhat analogous to what happened to bill clinton in 1992 in new hampshire. he didn't declare victory. he came in third, but he said that, you know, he was the comeback kid, because he was so far behind, because of all of the scandals that had erupted during that campaign. so it isn't quite analogous but it certainly is presenting, her henting herself and you pointed out in the middle of ted cruz' victory speech, coming up onstage with no warning. the staff did not know. the traveling poll did not know. apew jis went around the room because they did not know she was walking out on that stage when they did. they didn't shake hands with any supporters and high-tailed it out of here. ious ly there will be a count, a
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protest, depending which way it goes, but you're going to likely end up with both, both campaigns duking it out over this as we saw on the republican side four years ago. rachel? >> and we, andrea. >> reporter: and brian. pretty amazing. >> you have to high tail it out of there to catch up with the candidate. everyone is trying to beat the storm out of iowa. get to the next front in this, which is new hampshire. so, andrea, thank you. across town in des moines to chuck todd we go. chuck, what are we watching here? >> well, we're watching a result we're not going to get tonight. i've talked to a couple of sources in the campaigns, and they're pretty convinced we won't know the final tally tonight. as i told you, we've already had one correction, which then shrunk the margin. so it is very unlikely they're going to be able to announce a winner tonight. so that in itself, i think, becomes -- given what the clinton campaign did, by declaring victory, if we now --
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go to bed without knowing who won, that's just handed sanders and even extra feather in the cap for him tonight, and couple that with what andrea was reporting, clinton campaign had an elaborate plan how they would talk tonight and suddenly seemed to switch gears. my guess, repercussions behind the scenes. somebody obviously assured this clinton campaign they had this in the bag and how that got messed up, i wonder if just one reporting error or messed up something behind the scenes, but this was a, a bad mistake tonight by them. >> chuck, when the campaigns are making decisions like this, do they have access to any data we don't have? do they have access to internal information? >> sure, they have their own -- oh, sure. raginging, particularly the clinton, sanders, cruz and i'd
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say rubio, had a similar operation, probably not quite as sophisticated as the other three, but essentially, you've seen our decision desk, rachel? >> yeah. >> it's very similar. these campaigns, the most sophisticated. their own sets, modeling, getting their own people to call in, in the same way or consortium plus the associated press do their own modeling. yes. their own sophisticated boiler room. they weren't doing this based and network, based on their own calculations. that's why you have to ask yourself, how did that happen? unless somebody decided doesn't meater. declare victory and get out of here. see if we can keep attention away from this. nothing is a fatal error at this point, but a bad blunder tonight. >> chuck todd in des moines. thank you. ut mentioned the decision desk there. we are actually going to go to our decision desk right now. steve kornacki left the studio
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we are in. walked across the hallway. found the secret entry we're not allowed to know about and gone into the decision desk to find out what's going on with the 5% we've yet to heard about from the democratic race. >> the secret handshake. they let me in john lipinski here. we heard chuck todd saying he's hearing we're not going to know a winner tonight on the democratic side in iowa, when you're looking at the returns, is that what you're seeing? >> a daily driven operation but it's not a model exercise right now. it's actually a counting exercise. so chuck is actually right. what's really going to depend, what'ses going to be important here is how the state parties sort of reports out the state delegate equivalents. what we're looking at right now is, like, can somebody actually get to 700? remember, o'malley got 7. the magic number is a counting exercise to 700. people in the crowd like chuck
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are really going to have their ear out to here whether we'll were get enough in to be able to do that. >> when you look at areas that haven't been reported yet. polk county, for instance. this is des moines, the big part of the state, the state capital. looks like there's a lot of precincts not in there. looks like a clinton area. is it fair to say she has maybe more vote out than sanders? >> it's a really hard thing to say. right now we're looking at the difference of four state delegates. not many. polk, places out, if you don't know exactly what you've got in those counties you can't really say that. >> so, in other words, we don't know which area. could be a sanders -- even though it looks like a clinton county, it's sanders direction? >> all the way at the caucus level, can't know for sure. >> history of covering, following these things can you think of another night on the democratic side that went like this where we didn't know this late? >> what makes it similar,
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remember 2012. a very long night on the republican side. and when it was basically a counting exercise also, when it was romney and then, you know, more than a week later, it was santorum. right? so -- you know, this is sort of -- what a lot of people thought this was going to be a nail bsh di nail-biter down to the wire. this campaign, this whole cycle seems to be unique. >> final question. when looking what we do know. the results from the rest of the state, is there a particular part of the state that surprised you for either of these candidates where, wow, sanders did much better than expected here? or hillary clinton did much worse than i expected there? surprises in the results? >> i didn't see a lot of surprises on the democratic side. on the republican side we saw more surprises, cruz overperformed in some areas, like the eastern cities. so i really think we saw a few more surprises on the republican side than the democratic side tonight. >> john lipinski, thank you for joining us. rachel, they're going to kick me out of here.
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the lette eslatest from the dec desk. >> that's is super compelling like that, when everything hangs in the balance. usually the amount of stuff lipinski has to deal with and we get it translated to us. nights like this, later it goes, the more that's the story. delegate by delegate, precinct by precinct count. interesting, this close, if there are legal challenges, or there are the kinds of challenges that we expect from candidates who are fighting over something this important. how far down to the map the clinton and sanders campaigns will go after that? >> takeaway, probably not have an answer tonight. >> probably. counting on not doing the math, just getting the number, you can't force that. we're going to take a break and be back with our coverage on the other side, including our panel here in the studio. oh remotes, you've had it tough.
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watching tvs get sharper, bigger, smugger. and you? rubbery buttons. enter the x1 voice remote. now when someone says... show me funny movies. watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. we are back. you want to see something retweeted a lot tonight? the words of donald trump quoting a golfer named walter hagan. no one remembers who came in second. trump said that a while back. >> around the time he -- oh, gosh. that was two summers ago? >> yeah. that was tweeted by donald j. trump your number two finisher tonight in iowa, winging his way
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east. at sanders headquarters tonight is kasie hunt standing by with a special guest. kasie? >> reporter: brian, thanks. here, pat divine one of the strategists behind what happened to bernie sanders and the key america ad many of us watch 37d clear going into this and from the early signs of the clinton campaign they thought this would go one way and something changed tonight. what changed? >> well, bernie's message had enormous impact here in iowa, and we think it's going to vin credible impact across the nation. it's a very simple message. the economy's rigged. sends too much wealth to the top held in place by a corrupt campaign finance. that message is powerful and deliberate in delivering we think we can cut through the nation with it. >> reporter: what did you do on the ground here in iowa to take the clintons by surprise? >> built a huge organization. over 100 paid staff here. 15,000 volunteers. our big secret weapon.
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people volunteer for the campaign, put in hundreds of thousands of hours of volunteer work and that more than anything made the difference here on the ground. >> reporter: what happens next? brian just explained that quote donald trump tweeted saying no one remembers who came in second. did you come in second tonight, or do you think this is something different? >> no. listen, there were 1,406 delegate constituency. the difference when it's done, small digits, maybe a tie. one side or the other may win. we effectively brought it to a tie and split the delegates as a result of that. important here, can we achieve the momentum we need out of new hampshire to move into nevada, south carolina all of the march 1st states. i think we can. >> reporter: what do you need to win over african-american voters, hispanic voters, groups that right now heavily favor hillary clinton. >> we need to tell bernie sanders story. he's the son of a polish
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immigrant, bra barely speaking english. the work of his life as a college student where he fought in the civil rights struggle. he has a powerful story. match that up with his agenda of jobs, education, health care, are changing this country's direction, that's going to be very powerful in those communities particularly. >> reporter: why hasn't he been able to tell that story yet so far? people seized on other parts of -- >> we haven't gotten there yet. listen, i think people in those communities are going to see in bernie sanders someone who can tame on problems festering for decades and generations. he's prepared to do it. >> reporter: is bernie sanders going to win new hampshire? >> we're several going it try to win new hampshire and i think we will. >> reporter: appreciate your time. back to you. >> thank you. i want to bring into the conversation now bill de blasio. the mayor of america's largest
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city. strong supporter's hillary clinton. mayor, great to see you. thanks for joining us. >> thank you, rachel. >> did hillary clinton win tonight or didn't she? >> well, look, the votes are still being counted but this was a great, great hillary clinton campaign in this state. i was on the ground knocking on doors talking to voters and activists. it was a fabulous organization. very strong. a great indicator of what this campaign will be like going forward and, look, the votes will be counted, on to other states, but i fell great about what the clinton campaign has, a much stronger ground game than we saw eight years ago and makes a big difference. >> one of the stories that the sanders campaign has been telling tonight is that when senator sanders started, he was not only seen as an asterisk by the national media, no name recognition. over 50 points behind. turned that around and brought
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this essentially to a draw with your candidate tonight. secretary hillary clinton barely able to hold on if she did win this thing tonight. isn't that a trouble the momentum heading into new hampshire? after all, new hampshire, she's the one way behind in the polls? >> i look at this as a long game. this was a fine performance by hillary here in iowa. she spoke powerfully to the issues of income inequality and the aggressive changes we need. she's put forward a powerful agenda how to deal with lack of fairness in our economy, it's resonating, and her message is strong. this is the campaign that will get stronger with each successive state. i feel very good how this positioning her. the key thing, i believe this fundamentally, people want, democrats for sure, want a progressive that can get things done. i heard it on the doors in iowa, on the phones talking to people. they saw that point and i think vote, up ahead will see it, too.
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>> mayor deplauzde blasio, one know about you, you are a committed progressive. in it not just for candidates or names but for the cause. s caught of your life, progressive politics and progressive policy. you've made that very clear here in new york city. as somebody who's not just a clinton supporter, somebody with those values, is the democratic primary making the democratic party more progressive this year? this fight between bernie sanders and hillary clinton, looks like it's going to be a hard-fought one. is it good for the policies and values that you care about? >> it's very good for the democratic party. democratic party had, for too many years, i think, lost its way. turned away from the economic populism that was the definition of the party for several generations. and what we've seen in the last year, and we've seen it from the fight for 15 movement. we've seen it from campaigns. we've seen it from a lot of
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different places, is a democratic party that is becoming more progressive, that's talking about real economic kitchen table issues, that's willing to talk bluntly about taxes the wealthy more. i think something organic is happening and you see it in bernie's platform, hillary's flat form, you saw it in o'malley's platform. it's what we've needed for a long time, and hillary's going to take that vision and i think an extraordinary organization and the ability to reach across the spectrum. i think it's going to mean something very good for the future of this party. >> mayor bill de blasio, stumping for hillary clinton in iowa. put in a lot of shoe leather there, mayor. thanks for being with us tonight. appreciate it. >> thank you very much, rachel. across town in des moines, we go to chris matthews at our election headquarters there. chris? >> reporter: well, the sumup
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tonight is very hard. i agree with rachel about this. this has gotten closer throughout the night. we may end up not getting a real result, if we get one in a couple of days. the irony of the whole thing, look at hillary clinton right fou. she's looking ahead to new hampshire, where she was going to lose. and probably will still lose, but just think if she'd lost tonight. if she'd suffered a real loss tonight. talking about her firewall down in the south. especially starting in south carolina, a large african-american vote in the democratic primary down there. talking about her needing a firewall. coming off tonight, doesn't look like she's needs a firewall. did very well tonight and may well win. looks like she'll win by a narrow, narrow margin. she doesn't need to face a firewall, not losing the daily double in new hampshire. may well lose new hampshire, expected that. then to south carolina. i think in nevada she should do well in nevada, in south carolina. she's still on course to be the
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favorite. not saying she's won it by any mean, a lot of fitsz and caucuses, who tend to go buy bernie sanders. a long fight but i think she's still the favorite. on the republican side, very complicated. it has to do with the psyche of a guy not in politics very long. that's donald trump. will he put his head together by tomorrow afternoon when he has to give his first speech. get his head together, his head around this defeat and move towards the big victory in new hampshire and another big victory in south carolina and get back on a winning trail? i think he can do it, but he face twos serious opponents. a very strong tested and proven hard right guy, ted cruz. and a very likable, brilliant young orator, very easy to vote for. very easy to vote for. you vote for marco rubio, you're gettingalities bit of everything. a whitman sampler of politics.
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i think bernie is hard, when you say political revolution, a very effective speech tonight, i think it scares a lot of people. it's too much for a lot of people. imagine 50% of the american people eventually buying into him. it's too much of a bite ideologically. i think tonight hillary is still in good shape, trump's still in the fight. depends on this heart. really depends on hit hearse. to chris sitting next to me. >> i think a few things. take a moment to recognize, tonight i think was the first time a jewish-american got delegates to the president of united states. tonight. a historic moment. also, look -- >> he doesn't run like that, though. he's not religious. doesn't talk about it. >> look, he's bernie sanders. okay? >> right. >> take a step back and think about what the sanders campaign was able to execute. bernie sanders has run an effect live campaign frommer level, from organizing to fund-raising
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to message to organizing. the big question tonight, can they turn people out? they basically did. it's going to be a essential lay tie. not the howard dean phenomena. are we looking at a deanesque bubble here? we're not looking at that. on the republican side, i'm astounded i was the highest level to reward the organization the most. that cruz campaign is incredibly disciplined and organized. yeah, they won. now you go into a bunch of states you walk in and pull the lever or fill out a ball inkts and seven or eight states the same night. >> the same night. donald trump, like you said, the psych of the donald trump. if he can recover from tonight, he still has a tremendous win at his back. >> add the campaign run here, very intense, very organized. look at the people tonight in tat room. can he go state by state or is he island hopping? can he go across the country
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with that kind of campaign? >> right now they're bringing in enough money they can build that kind of capacity. the question, can they build it out fast enough? i think south carolina is going to about real test for them. even if he loses, what's that margin look like? what's happening against constituency very underrepresented ins first two states. >> and trying to draw a correlation between the experience of someone of polished immigrants, eyed to eastern central europe. people from latin america, a hard one. you got to really sell that connection. that's a tough one. >> the case the sanders campaign makes is, we have to sell the bernie sanders story and message to communities and voters that haven't heard it, because he doesn't have a name recognition in clinton, and remarians to be seen how successful they are doing that. >> and running against hillary clinton. and bill clinton will be very good in the south, retailing for secretary clinton in the south. that's as good as we can do, i think, tonight. it's a tough one. tell you, right now. >> it's good. when the conversation takes on
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the air of an irish tavern late at night, it's good, actually. we're going to put off the revolution, the discussion of that, until we do something very commercial and break for a commercial. be back right after this.
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at 12:33 a.m. eastern time, here's what we've learned tonight -- there is your projected winner of iowa. we have heard from ted cruz tonight, a very thankful speech. and let's look at the rest of
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the -- oh, we're going to democrats. all right. 96% in. brings us to our next conversation. 674-670 in projected delegate equivalence. two cleeose to call. by chuck todd's estimate and a lot of others, we're not going to know tonight. >> 50/50. it really looks like a tie thus far even though we don't have 100% of the vote in and in some precincts it just looks like a coin toss, and -- you can take that literally as far as i understand it. are we actually talking about coin toss here, steve kornacki? >> yeah. the most amazing story of the night. we're tracking delegates given out at the precinct level that are going to determine who wins this thing. you see, this is the latest count. you just said it. 674 for hillary clinton. 670 for bernie sanders. let me tell you about something that's happened in at least three precincts across the state
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of iowa tonight. basically how it works at the caucuses. everybody shows up, take attendance, get a count from that total count of attendees they decide how many delegates were be allocated in that precinct. as you've seen tonight, go through a lengthy process of speeches, meeting up in groups, changing allegiances. that takes some time. by the time they get a final count in at least three of these precincts, the final count number was so much lower than the original attendance number they allocated and extra delegate. so to determine who would get that extra delegate, they had a coin toss. this happened at least in a precinct in ames, iowa. a precinct in west davenport, and a precinct in des moines. in each one of these coin tosses, i think you're seeing video of one there. in each one of these coin tosses, hillary clinton's side won. >> what? >> so take a look. three.
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if she lost those three coin tosses, she would have 671 right now. if bernie sanders won those three coin tosses, he would have 672 right now. bernie sanders would be leading right now, and if you think that's a trivial difference, bernie sanders was dying, i bet you in that speech, to say, i'm leading right now. he almost could have said it and with the flip of a coin could have said it. >> may i -- may i just -- >> my math is terrible. >> you're saying that there were three delegates rewarded on the basis of a coin toss all three went to hillary clinton and that's part of the reason it technically looks like she's leading right now? that's nuts. >> yes. the des moines register found one, yahoo! news found two more. basically anecdotal reports. could be more across the state. something the iowa democratic party was saying it's an or contain proposal thing, it never
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happens. now it's happened three times and it is literally affecting the outcome. >> oh, this is astonishing. >> was it heads or was it tails? first question. second, this just happened in the nfl playoffs. >> who gets the kickoff? >> and the flip, and they had to reflip. >> oh, my god. >> in my distant past i was an election observer on an international delegation, in countries in the, former soviet union. nothing of what's happening in the democratic caucus in iowa would have passed our test. we would have said, no. i'm sorry. we cannot certify this result. >> this is absolutely astounding. i mean, ultimately, we went through this in 2012 on the republican side. on the night of the caucus they said, romney won by eight votes. eventually then they said it was rick santorum winning by 32 or 34 votes and the caucus chairman, or the party chairman for republicans in 2012 in iowa
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wanted everybody to just say it was a tie. wanted to walk away, the campaigns, having absolutely nothing of it. will the campaigns fight tore anything other than a tie? >> the sanders audience declared victory when bernie sanders came out and said in a straightforward way. didn't try to spin it. it's a virtual tie. they broke out into the same as if he would have won. on the clinton side, second clinton came out, finessed it, it was slick. never said it's a win. never said it's a tie. a very different approach. >> of course, having come from 50 points behind and end in a tie sounds like a great win. >> she mentioned the sigh of relief. >> started 50 points ahead and ended in a verirtual tie. and a few questions where this goes with democrats. first, the overall turnout. republicans had a record
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turnout, highest iowa caucus turnout ever in the history of the iowa caucuses. democrat in 2008. high turnout but not as high as the republicans did and not as high as their record. is that an issue for shadowing the general election? are demming going to have an excitement problem republicans aren't going to have and what does this do to the new hampshire race? before iowa bernie sanders had a huge lead in new hampshire. him doing so well in iowa, or if indeed he wins in iowa, is that going to rattle democrats? is that going to shake up his numbers in new hampshire? because people were expecting had imto come in as the underdog? >> it's a lot easier to say what this result doesn't do and what it does, because had the result been a bit different, had bernie sanders won and a convincing victory in iowa, then we could project it would boost his total in new hampshire and it might -- and then he would have two and that might change things in south carolina a bit. who knows? >> or it might electrify the
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democratic establishment around clinton to get urgency. it could -- >> exactly. could have done stuff. right? but they're tied. actually. so it's hard to get a whole lot of momentum from a tie. >> you know what a tie does? it makes the thursday night democrats' debate in new hampshire more important than anything else that's happened thus far in the democratic race. that is going to be a debate to watch. >> it is. >> with two instead of three candidates. >> that's right. head to head. >> even promotions for the event mentioned mr. o'malley, which we probably failed in pointing out, in our review of the headlines that we lost from the race huckabee tonight and o'malley tonight. >> right. >> one on each side. crowded gop field, still. john kasich is laboring in new hampshire tonight. chris christie i this went on ahead to new hampshire tonight. a whole bunch of people we have not talked about. >> as did jeb bush, in new york
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tonight. remarkable. >> jeb, first time we've mentioned that name. we haven't talked, haven't said that name a lot. >> jeb bush is a fascinating story for many reasons this year and big ones still true. but in the granular truth of wrapped in iowa, nobody spent more money to try to win iowa than jeb bush. >> a fortune. >> spent an absolute fortune that got him absolutely nothing. the one unique thing he got in io iowa nobody else got, higher unfavorable ratings. >> the higher his unfavorables wentant and started at the front-runner in iowa. >> here's the question -- why? >> donald trump. when donald trump entered the only other person he talked about a minimum, jeb bush. your brother screwed up the iraq war, the energy, everything he could throw at him and after ten days of this, all laughing at it, i started to say, how long can the bush campaign allow this
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to go on before they start responding? i mean, normally in a campaign you respond with negative ads against the other guy and their decision, which we now know was a mistake, was to wait. let's wait for this trump bubble to explode on its own. let's let others attack him. they hung back and turns out they should have gone after him right away. who knows if it would have made a difference but jeb bush was pummeled in the first weeks by donald trump and never recovered from the first weeks of trump. >> and jeb bush wasn't a good candidate at that. the best he's ever performed in the campaign was in the last debate when trump wasn't there. something about trump standing next to him and -- seems to freak him out. >> hmm. another break. >> our coverage continues, right after this. >> we are in a virtual tie.
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it is rare. it is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas. to really think hard about what the democratic party stands for, and what we want the future of our country to look like if we do our part to build it. i am a progressive who gets things done for people. >> hillary clinton tonight in her not quite victory speech, or maybe one of four victory speeches. >> turned out the sound bite of the night was at sanders event a bit later on declaring it a virch wo virtual tie. >> to huge cheers. the victory of iowa, iowa is better at predicting democratic nominees than republican nominees. iowa has only predict add
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republican nominee twice in modern times. 1996, bob dole. 2000, george w. bush. other than that every year whoever wins iowa doesn't go on to win the nomination. on the democratic side, iowa is predictive. wrong in 1988 picking gephardt over dukakis and harkin over bill clinton, a caucus, usually different. tend to be more predictive. tonight not knowing who won the iowa caucus not only means we don't know but our statistics are screwed up forever no matter how many elections -- >> talking about a brokered convention? if there's a tie in iowa? >> absolutely. it's shooting the moon. you can't do it. this is -- in terms of what happens here, i mean, heading into new hampshire, on the democratic side, the bernie sanders lead is so big, unless this result changes the bernie sanders lead, he has to be seen
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as the clear favorite in new hampshire. >> i think so. >> on the republican side, it's really weird. because iowa and new hampshire are never won by the same republican candidate. >> yeah. >> new hampshire just doesn't care about iowa and they're proud of not caring about it. they consider themselves to be the first, first state, and then iowa snuck in here in 1972 when george mcgovern discovered he might be able to exploit it to indicate support for him there. but prior to that it was always new hampshire. those voters, they've never paid attention to what happens in iowa. >> and good iowa candidates, like mike huckabee, rick santorum, pat robertson, they bear little resemblance. is donald trump a good new hampshire candidate? he wad ahead in the polls in iowa heading into tonight and didn't win. >> he's had a bigger, longer lead in new hampshire. >> exactly.
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a sustained lead in new hampshire, much matterer ahead. again, we don't know. we simply don't know if -- the question was, will trump's people come out and vote? a lot of them did. he got more votes than any previous republican candidate ever got in the iowa caucuses. >> except for -- ted cruz. >> ted cruz. >> right, but all the others, whoever ran, he got more. >> the huge republican turnout i think will end up being a very important story. not for any one candidate but terms of understanding what this raucous is going to mean for the general election. >> a very good question. >> drawing attention and galvanizing to the republican field in a way that will be sustain and certainly the audiences for their debates suggests that probably will be so, that may have general election consequences no matter who -- >> if that speaks to the energy level. >> interest, energy level. doesn't tell us who's going to
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win, though. at this point if i were the donald trump campaign i don't know what i'd do differently in new hampshire i haven't already been doing. >> he has media money and an aw
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hampshire, maybe nobody could stop him. so he really did want to win iowa in the end and he tried his best to do it and failed. you know. maybe he'll have a nice nap and -- and just -- you know, think about the lead that he has in new hampshire, and buckle down there. >> and there's a dangerous thing in the air for trump, and that is seriousness. if that becomes a contagion, what we just saw, the very first voters in america who had to very seriously decide who are they going to support for president, turned away from donald trump. >> yeah. >> to someone else, and they reached behind donald trump to marco rubio, and in that moment of, now it's serious, something happened other than donald trump winning. new hampshire, if -- if this contagion of seriousness
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overwhelms new hampshire, that could be bad for trump. >> our bose of seriousness, stopping for a break. we'll be back on the other side.
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one of the more startling updates from this very close race on the democratic side is that maybe coin flips had something to do with the results we have thus far.
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steve car knack has an update. >> talking about coin tosses that took place. it did happen. delegates at the precinct meetings awarded at least three cases we found, hillary clinton's side winning awe three. where i goofed. a big one. i want to make it clear. i was deducting, in hillary clinton's case, if she didn't win at 680 here. these are state delegate equivalents. different delicates we're talking about tonight. the kind you're seeing, state delicate equivalents, not the kind awarded by the coin toss. the coin toss determines a certain kind of delicate that later on becomes the state delicate give lent, if that makes sense. i goofred and yelled at by smart people and rightly so. i want to make sure that's clear. >> talks about things in cocoons when you should have been talking about butterflies. delicates become delicates become delicates. >> still a roll of a coin toss
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in american politics. >> i didn't understand either explanation. so he can't be wrong if you don't understand him. >> lawrence o'donnell on the board. stay with us. another break.
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welcome back. two parties and two starrories tonight. we go into the overnight hours. we had a republican victory comparative lierly with ted cru ta taking the iowa caucus but tonight, as we go into the night, it's the democrats grabbing the attention. in his speech, bernie sanders
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called it a virtual tie. hillary clinton used no such wording and late tonight we have something of a protest from the sanders campaign. casey hunt, our consporresponde traveling with the sanders campaign. casey, explain what is going on. >> reporter: we just got over the bus and about to board the sanders charter to new hampshire but there is concern bubbling about 90 precincts. the sanders campaign received late word tonight the iowa democratic party did not staff 90 of these presents and they were, the party was in touch with them and essentially this is on background from campaign aids, that they are being asked to help with the count and of course, it's not clear exactly what that means. the sanders campaign is not clear on what they are being expected to contribute, whether or not this count will be done fairly and of course, with the
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margin what it is, i think we might be able to show our viewers just how close the number of delegates that we're talking about here. these 90 precincts represent 5% of the number outstanding and has not moved over the course of the last hour or so and of course with the race potentially to get these delegates into the single delegates, single digit under ten it's just a remarkably close margin. the sanders campaign feels there is no way to know whether or not all of this is being done fairly and above board and they say privately they were unaware that the iowa democratic party was not staffing these 90 presents going into this evening, brian. >> i'm going to jump in for a second, casey, it's rachel in the studio. i'm confused what it means to staff a precinct. if there is 90 different sites
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where the iowa democratic party, at least according to the sanders campaign, didn't have somebody on site and didn't have somebody to do tallying, were there caucuses at the precincts. the . >> there is some concern raised. i don't have the total number of precincts immediately to hand but if 90 represent about 5% that should give our viewers a little bit of a sense of what this means. a precinct in this case, the party's role is to make sure what happens in the kcaucus is being counted fairly and rely on an app built by microsoft, a new way of counting the votes this
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time around or counting bodies moving around in a gym or seen much reporting from our reporters on the ground. i think our viewers have a sense of what a caucus actually looks like. in this particular case, there is essentially no indepersonnde authority to say there are this many people standing up for hillary clinton or bernie sanders and one of the concerns that was actually raised in the days and weeks leading up to the primarily is whether or not the democratic party was going to be prepared to step into that role, but it was not clear to the sanders campaign the extent of it or whether or not it was actually going to happen that the party itself would not be prepared to do this. of course, the campaigns themselves, this is what they focus so much of energy and effort on, making sure they have a present captain in every place whose job it is to make sure they are keeping track of this information but of course, once you're trying to tally these results, you're still relying on
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the party to be an even hand and say okay, we saw this. we're non-partisan, non-partisan isn't quite the word but we do not have a dog in the fight and so that essentially is the issue. the concern now being they are asking the campaigns to help. what happens if for example there is a discrepancy between what the clinton campaign observer says happened and what the sanders campaign observer says happen. under normal circumstances, this 5% might not matter. in this case, it could matter a lot. >> casey hunt, we'll let you go. it is difficult to board a plane from a bus while accurately reporting and a plane full of very tired people winging their way east. they already lost an hour as they take off. let's go to steve. 5% of precincts sounds like it will come down to citizen ship and pure pressure absent a party representative but enough to
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make a huge difference in a tight race. >> it raises the possibility. i know we've been talking about will we even have a winner declared tonight? will we go to sleep not really knowing how this will end up. this thing could get extend for the days, for weeks. will there be a resolution that satisfies all people? you think back to 2012 on the republican side. we talked a lot about this. where originally ahead mitt romney being declared the winner and a few weeks later, the decoloration, it wasn't romney. not sure we would declare a winner. so we went through all of that back in 2012 and also a reminder in the disputes, these are party-run events basically prevent events. not like you have the secretary of state, public officials administering the elections if there is a dispute you can appeal to a public official to act. these in the end, these are run by the parties.
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the parties set the rules for them. the parties determine when there are disputes and settle it this way, settle it that way and these are what the rules are. these are not the same as primary, as elections administered by a state. >> steve at the board. let's go out to des moines. chris matthews, it reminds me of the first you learn in civics, this is big boy and big girl politics and again, steve is correct in pointing out this is no controlling legal authority. this is happening as a party event. >> yes, and i think we're absent in the wide world of sports which we had to throw a victory. neither were apparent tonight. we have joy reid and steve smidt
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there are two front runners, hillary clinton and donald trump. >> yes. >> how will they progress from this night's business? how do they stay there and win? hillary first? >> hillary clinton today is a couple delegates ahead of a 74-year-old socialist senator from vermont started out 50 points ahead and likely to lose new hampshire. she has to crush him in south carolina. south carolina 60% voting age population is african american. she has to show his progressive way liberal appeal does not extend into the african american base in a democratic party and on the republican side, donald trump tonight leaves iowa having lost. he is for the first time in this race no longer in command completely of his own political destiny and he must win in the state of new hampshire. if he does not win in the state of new hampshire, the trump
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campaign will collapse like an imploded building. ted cruz will come out of this victory tonight not having to win in new hampshire but in a contest with marco rubio and marco rubio has to beat ted cruz and get in the second position in new hampshire. trump and cruz will face-off again in south carolina. that will be a decisive primary. >> is trump a favorite? >> we don't know right now but that will be a decisive task in the republican race and marco rubio can go into that race not having won a primary yet and not having to win south carolina. he has to be the establishment candidate left standing against cruz or donald trump. his strategic imperative is to narrow the race and the big news that will come out of the republican party is the next intense pressure by the donors, by the political leadership and establishment of the republican
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party on the jeb bush super pact to lay off the attacks on marco rubio. the path for jeb bush is invisible towards the nomination i think for about everyone except some people on the jeb bush campaign and so you're going to have intense pressure saying enough with the attacks on marco rubio, marco rubio was the best bet. >> are there three candidates left? it went to three. three tickets out of iowa. >> winner to three but not formally yet because chris christie, john kasich, jeb bush at 8%, 7% make their last stand in new hampshire. this race tonight is over for carly fiorina and for the rest of the two percents. >> marco rubio still has a chance, win third here, did that. win second in new hampshire and first in south carolina. >> doesn't have to win first in south carolina. he can win later. he has to narrow the race
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against whomever prevails against trump. >> looks strong tonight. let's talk about hillary and bernie. they come out in a virtual tie. >> right. >> we'll have the debate thursday. then we'll have new hampshire which is bernie's, neighbor and go to nevada. who has that one? >> i think we should go back. if you remember in 2008, barack obama wins and comes out as a favorite. now he's going to roll into new hampshire and beat hillary clinton there. her organization was able to recover and i think that hillary clinton actually fights from that position pretty well. >> she had tommy out of boston a lot of strength and likable enough hurt him a lot. >> it sent an alarm through her female supporters who r really generated by the result. hillary clinton lost decisively in iowa i think you would see the establishment really rush to her defense because there is a fair amount of alarm and worry about how sanders would fair in
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a general election. the establish the of the democratic party breathes a huge sigh of relief. hillary clinton will take a win even if it's by .1%. >> she has a double digit lead coming out of this tonight nationally. >> nationally it will tighten up. core supporters will be alarmed enough by what standards was able to do tonight they will kick in for her more and i think you'll see new hampshire narrow and i think the hillary clinton campaign now, the next set of mailers and fundraising e-mails expect to see from them is saying now we have to get serious. they respect bernie sanders but see him as a serious threat and realize that and you'll see among women whether or not they kick in for hillary clinton. look, bernie sanders, a white older socialist winning in a liberal cohort in iowa is not shocking like barack obama winning here was and he didn't win. even if it's by .1%, as long as she gets a win out of here --
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>> do you know how many african americans showed up in the entry poll -- >> zero. >> thank you. >> i saw some african americans in des moines. >> donald trump could still win? >> absolutely. >> double digit leaders. >> iowa has not been a good one of being the republican nominee. most the winners in the iowa caucus go on to be fox news television hosts and after new hampshire we'll have a sense of how this stands. >> wow. timmy carter did well. back to you, brian and rachel. >> wow, there is a particular cruelty in politics. you look at a candidate like chris christie who put all his chips in new hampshire and the percentages just -- >> it has not been rewarded. we'll see what happens in new hampshire. carly fiorina did so poorly tonight in iowa. she didn't speak tonight because she was flying to new hampshire.
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she wants people to know her campaign goes on. kasich, bush, a lot of these candidates want to be seen as candidates whose campaigns start next week, they weren't even trying this week. it will be very interesting to see. i got to second what joy reid said about the expectation on the democratic side. it is just as likely as anything the new hampshire poll numbers will actually tighten rather than getting better for bernie sanders because this will galvanize and get the attention of and in some cases electrify hillary clinton supporters and democratic establishment types who are counting on hillary at the top of the ticket in november and take sanders a lot more seriously with him polling 50% in iowa. >> sanders may not want to see all that that entails. >> yeah, it's fund mentally going to change the dynamic of the race whether or not this is a tie or as one of them winning as a hair's breath. this contest is something
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hillary clinton supporters did not expect to see whatever they said about the polls and i think it will shake things up. >> steve, chris and joy on their game. it's early for them. only 15 after midnight. >> still spring chickens. >> another break for us. we'll be back afterwards. >> i have to tell you that i am suspending this presidential bid, but i am not ending this fight because the fight that you and i are engaged in is a tough fight and i believe the toughness of the fight is the way the hidden god has of telling us we're actually fighting for something worth saving.
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actually, if you haven't seen them, i have -- hold on. >> you have the app? >> i don't have the app but i
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have -- >> there you go. this is the actual sheet, the tally sheet and santorum, there is an x next to him. >> yeah. [ laughter ] >> well, you didn't vote for him? >> as i was writing down, my pen went out of ink. i can't ask somebody for a new pen while i'm doing this. >> you're the santorum dude. >> failure to launch. >> exactly what it sounds like. >> if it's not a pen running out of ink, it's smart phones dying for lack of battery but we had fail yursures along the way ton. chris in des moines or wooly ma moth. we never quite confirmed that. earlier this evening. donald trump came out at a time when it was apparent he was going to be the second place finisher in the iowa caucuses and he gave what was pretty
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evenly reviewed as a gracious speech considering here now a portion of that. >> unbelievable. i have to start by saying i absolutely love the people of iowa. unbelievable. [ cheers ] >> unbelievable. so on june 16th when we started this journey, there were 17 candidates. i was told by everybody do not go to iowa, you could never finish even in the top ten but i said i have friends in iowa. i know a lot of people in iowa. i think they will really like me. let's give it a shot. they said don't do it. i said i have to do it. and we finished second and i want to tell you something, i'm just honored. i'm really honored and i want to congratulate ted and i want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates including mike huckabee who has become a
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really good friend of mine. so congratulations to everybody. congratulations. i want to thank all of the folks that worked with us. we had a great team and we will continue to have a great team and we're just so happy with the way everything worked out, and most importantly, i have to thank my wife and laura and eric and vanessa and don, they were out and doing speeches. don and eric, i think you did about six speeches today. i just want to thank my family. they have been so amazing and so supportive. and we've had every indication we're going now on. we have a poll. we're 28 points ahead, okay? new hampshire, we love new hampshire. we love south carolina. and we're leaving tonight and tomorrow afternoon we'll be in new hampshire and that will be something special.
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it's going to be a great week and we're going to be up here next week and i think we're going to be proclaiming victory, i hope. i will say this, i don't know whose going to win between bernie and hillary. i don't know what's going to happen with hillary. other problems, maybe bigger than the problems she's got in terms of nominations. but we've had so many different indications and polls that we beat her and we beat her easily and we will go on to get the republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat hillary or bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there. iowa, we love you. we thank you. you're special. we will be back many, many times. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it, okay? thank you. thank you, everybody. thank you. >> that was donald trump tonight in des moines prior to jetting
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east. so the republicans, cruz, trump, rubio. now for the democrats. >> on the democratic side, we still don't know whose won and msnbc is calling it too close to call. we have a mini story as we're waiting for this race to be called. a little while ago, about 25 minutes ago we got word sometime within the last hour we got word that the sanders campaign was basically claiming that the iowa democratic party had failed to put party staff at 90 precincts. there is 1600 something precincts. 90 they said did not have iowa democratic party staffers at them. they said that the iowa democratic party had asked the campaigns for the campaigns to help count at those precincts. again, this will be 90 out of 1600 plus and wouldn't be a huge proportion and wouldn't matter unless it was as close as it is tonight. that is where we left it.
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we had a statement from the iowa democratic party absolutely denying this charge from the sanders campaign. this is a statement from the iowa democratic party that we just got in. ready? it goes. quote, we are currently getting results from our small number of outstanding precincts and results continue to be reported on our public website. the reports of precincts without chairs are inaccurate. the outstanding precincts have chairs who we are in the process of contacting to get results and they say again just in case you didn't get it the first time, it is inaccurate to report these precincts did not have chairs. iowa democratic party continues. we have reached out to the campaigns for help in contacting the chairs for outstanding precincts and not taking results from the campaigns. we're taking results from the chairs who are in these precinc precincts. >> most people think this is about ikea. >> chairmen and cha chairwoman,p
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in getting in touch with the precinct chairs. >> yeah. >> so that's a little weird. >> in the middle of the top to bottom denial. >> they are suggesting the campaigns know how to reach their campaign trails and they, the iowa democratic party do not. the way the sanders campaign characterize this, deny and say there are iowa democratic party staffer there is for neutral staffers presumably and each of the precincts and that will be the person responsible for reporting these vote totals, the sanders campaign obviously casting at least the prospect that some of these unaccounted for precincts might be having their numbers reported bipartisans, by clinton campaign or sanders campaign workers. >> guess what this moment calls for? >> what? >> chris matthews is with a --
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should we say an election law expert of the other party who will be fpassionate about this. >> let's bring in my friend who is an expert at recounts. you probably watched "recount" with kevin space . you said we saw this with mitt romney and won by santorum and you had late failure to report by precinct just like this and why? >> it's getting late. sometimes the people who are precinct chairs named by the party, go home, go to bed, tough to use the microsoft app to get in the results some places don't have connectivity. the phone lines that are the redundancy might have been busy. at any rate, we had a similar number four years ago. wonderful to see the problem. >> out of 1700 precincts, should we always assume -- funny.
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we're not good at close elections as we learned in florida in your case. there are always going to be 100 precincts where the person is old, forgets to do it. goes to bed and have to call, wake him up these chairs and remind him their chairman of precincts and have to report the results of the caucus and oh, yeah. >> how about that? well, usually -- usually it's not outcome determined. the reason it's important now and we're kind of looking under the hood of the democrats caucus process is that the vote was so close. if this was a big victory like ted cruz, you wouldn't be looking at and it nobody would care. >> our election process, guys, rachel and brian is always based on a fairly stark result. it's never really good when it comes to hanging chads and all those other notorious aspects of a close election. it's just we've been very lucky. most elections are determined pretty early in the evening. >> what is true about our election system is it's very
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local. there are at least 8,000 places in the country that have decisions over the elections in their area. a lot of it is staffed by volunteers. you may have two elections a year or every two years so that we rely on volunteers. many of them are retired people because they have the time. so the exchange for the volunteer-based personal system is a certain lack of consistency in it. >> in the end, when they do report and wake up or are woken up and say remember to file, do we get an honest count? >> in a case like this, i think you do. they are relatively small precincts. both parties have to validate the result. so i think you do get an honest count at the end of the day but the process suffers because there is now going to be a period of not knowing in a very close race that all america is watching and so the republican party of iowa took a big hit four years ago, chairman --
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>> was santorum punished for this system? did he pay the price because he should have been declared the winner? >> there are two points. santorum did not get the bounce blissfully the results were not officially announced until after new hampshire. mitt romney did get momentum out of iowa and able to cruz to a pretty easy victory in new hampshire. and then secondly, it is the system itself does take a hit from not being able to have accurate results tonight on election night. >> i think we missed the crackle of victory and that's why tonight is unsatisfying. brian, it's unsatisfying to go home and realize we don't have a clear winner and loser. i like concession speeches when somebody says i lost. it's an honest moment. one of the rarely truest moments in politics. i blew it, i lost. go home the loser. everybody gets that and that's why democracy is thrilling.
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tonight it isn't. tonight it's vague. >> i find the vagueness a little thrilling, i got to say. the fact it can be a tie is so unlikely and means every single person that turned out in every single precincts ended up being absolutely important. if you went and caucused in iowa on the democratic side, boy, did it matter you were there? boy, did it matter? every decision to move those people and o'malley folks, all of those things mattered. every iowa democratic caucus goer was a king maker. i know we don't get a concession speech and definitive bounce but from the citizens' perspective, this is pretty thrilling. >> what would be definitive about someone winning by two-tents of a percent. what's definitive of that? that's just a few people in a car who didn't make it into the door by 7:00 p.m. there could be nothing
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definitive. once you get into something this tight. the numbers right now indicate hillary is at 49.8 bernie 49.6. some indicate they are both 49.7. you're not going to get definitive. it's not definitive. >> why does it fall upon me to say we'll be back with more right after this break.
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we are back and the story as we go into the late, late hours of the night slash early hours of the morning has been on the democratic side. a lot of correspondents had to uproot and make their way to the airport, make their way onto the campaign planes as the entire apparatus of decision 2016 moves its center of gravity from iowa east to new hampshire. among them, andrea mitchell who is traveling with the clinton campaign and has called into us with some knowledge of the clinton campaign's thinking about the dustup tonight over campaign shares over party chairs at these various precincts. andrea, take it from there. you'll probably do a better job than i just did. >> you're doing just fine, brian. this is absolutely insane. we're on the plane and the candidate is not here but the
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staff is and we were just briefed the two top aids and they say they believe we won. we have our own internal tallies and high confidence we won and we believe we have 21. he has 20 and one is in dispute so we think we will win. they say they have more delegates than we and they won. so we asked for why didn't she say she won? and one of them said well, that's because the tally wasn't final and the others said well she really did say she won. i gus that was that breathing a sigh of relief. i asked brian fallon about the 90 precincts at the sanders campaign says we're missing and the fact the democratic party staffers were not there, that was the first they had heard of that. so they are not even aware or were not aware when they got to this airplane in des moines of
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the whole dispute they claim of 90 precincts not having been tallied because they were not staffed as the sanders campaign claims. this is obviously going to continue toz a dispute. basically, they were saying they won and repeating what we were told earlier even though the whole network and no official tally has confirmed that fact. they said they had the wrong modelling based on an app and the numbers came in they had high confidence they won and that's why they said that she came out. she is going to be flying on to new hampshire as you know with events scheduled tomorrow but this is obviously a flight a muddy victory for anyone. it's a tie even if they don't find the facts about those 90 missing precincts and brian, i don't know how she has any
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momentum going into new hampshire but they claim she does. >> this is not just a disappoint gree -- disagreement. both sides say they have p versions of caucuses tonight. a lot is riding on this but this is not a government election. >> exactly. it's party election. the government has no say over it and basically this is -- if it turns into a 50/50 split, each side will claim victory. he's going to sea he came with no name recognition and came up against the biggest political machine with all of their endorsements and establishments behind him and he's got a good argument. she is claiming that he had been supported, the caucus and she with stood his surge and he got
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a big turnout, 180,000, the second highest since 2008 that he was not able to produce the enthusiasm to bring more people out. i think this will be debated for quite sometime. if you see as you and chuck todd were discussing, the sanders game plan is to go to the caucus state. i've been told by top party leaders in minnesota right now he would win that state. he was very popular, brian? >> andrea mitchell, we will let you fly to the east on board the press plane as often happens as a candidate goes on ahead, members of the press core trailing behind can all fly together and that is the case tonight with the traveling clinton campaign. we are just unable to tell you with any specificity or
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confidence, who won tonight's iowa caucus for the democrats. it should be noted the clinton campaign had their own reasons for declaring victory earlier this evening, another break. we'll be right back after this. oh remotes, you've had it tough.
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watching tvs get sharper, bigger, smugger.
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and you? rubbery buttons. enter the x1 voice remote. now when someone says... show me funny movies. watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. this will be the front page of the des moines register in iowa tomorrow morning. cruz prevails semi colin, dems in dead heat. they divided the vertical space. cruz gets two columns but democrats are splitting it 50/50 because going to press time the democrats are splitting it 50/50.
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that's the front page of the "des moines register" tomorrow. you want to see things from a different angle, check out the front page of "new york daily news." the "daily news" has been spectacular about their entipty. they are calling him dead clown walking. when you look at the daily news, there is trump losing iowa to cruz. nearly slipping to third sounds like beaten man in concession. you know, i'm -- i -- [ laughter ] >> speechless. >> by the "new york daily news" i do not thing he sounded -- >> he only sounded morose in
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comparison to donald trump. >> that's true. he sounded like a normal candidate giving a concession speech. if he wants to feel better, he should think back to another republican that skipped a debate right before iowa, lost the iowa caucuses and went on to do well for himself, his name was ronald reagan. 1980. >> that iowa debate that regan skipped in 1980 was the night before the iowa caucuses and he thought he had it in the bag, didn't have to worry about it. >> wasn't in the bag. >> i don't know. i think we'll know more about the important tants of it when we get to new hampshire in eight days. >> chris matthews is a romantic about many things, politics and the newspaper business and chris, someone tonight is having a good time compiling front pages. >> by the way, i bet on donald trump to out live the "new york daily news" just to point a fact. he'll be around a lot longer than pa paper. >> ouch. >> i'm waiting for the post tomorrow morning. i got sabrina here from "the
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guardi guardian." so you're a columnist and a great thinker. you're focussing on marco rubio. sort of a minor start tonight or a middle weight start. he didn't win but he came out like a winner tonight. tell us where he's headed. >> i think the most important thing is it's a big night for ted cruz but for the last two months, ted cruz is selling this as a two-man race between him and donald trump. tonight marco rubio proved this is a three-way race and into new hampshire, this could give the extra bit of momentum to make the case to the more middle of the road. >> kasich -- >> kasich moved up as has jeb. he's going to have to contend with the two of them. maybe john kasich a little more because jeb obviously didn't perform well. >> to make it simple, he still has to go three, two, one and come in second in new hampshire, right? >> he has to be a top tier. second would be good and also important to note that south
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carolina tim scott who is popular there is going to endorse marco rubio. >> african american republican senator from south carolina. e.j., let's talk about the democrats. i think hillary clinton has an amazing place in history. i don't think she's been dislodged. as plausibly the first women president, right? heir to the clinton democratic party. the clintons are the democratic main stream. is she still there? he said she's breathed a sigh of relief. >> yeah, i think she was right to do that. if she lost tonight i still think she probably would have won the nomination had she lost here but she would have been in a lot of trouble because she would have lost here that probably would have increased bernie sanders already big margin in new hampshire and then she goes out with two defeats and has to claw her way back. this way she hasn't lost, my hunch is that if they have her
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count all these precincts, she's more likely than not to be had and that means the new hampshire lose doesn't look nearly as bad and she might out of this be able to gain ground in new hampshire. i think it was a really big deal. a few months ago this would have been a defeat and that's the other thing. the fact she lost ground which may have been due to mistakes she made. in the end turned out okay for her because we now decide that even a one vote margin that's three votes right now is enough for her. >> i think it's important she won the right way. she did not say bernie's a socialist and that's bad. she's never answered my question, what's the difference between a socialist and democrat because she doesn't want to offend those in the democratic progressive left and she didn't do that. she did not offend them. >> bernie sanders got 84% of the vote among democrats under 30 who showed up. she cannot lose those people.
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she needs those people to turn out if she's going to win assuming she wins the nomination. she desperately needs bernie sander ifs she wins to turn his organization into some kind of turnout machine for the democrats to get young people out because democrats can't win. >> hillary still in the race. let me ask about marco rubio, the third man in the movie. there is music to that, by way. he comes in. is he going to eventually become the candidate, the hawkish candidate or always going to hedge on that and try to also be the moderate? is he -- >> he's been trying to claim the mantle of the hawkish candidate. a large part of his national security pitch isn't very aggressive use of -- not necessarily military force but bolstering. >> how about i'm going to take the terrorist suspects and get the truth out of them. what does that mean -- >> american citizens who potentially are suspected terrorists -- >> what does that mean? i'm going to get the truth out
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of them. sounds like torture to me. >> he did not vote in favor. he didn't show up for the vote but said he would have opposed it in a statement. that was a notable sense of where he stands in terms of his brand of foreign policy. >> so he's got cheating behind him at some point, right? kidding. >> the amazing thing about rubio is he is a consecutive that ran as a tea partier that's become by default moderate and if you look at the polls, he's upscale. his vote came from republicans that are post grads. >> by the way, he'll get a lot of money from the people holding back. shelton is probably going to unleash huge money though his wife likes cruz but we'll see. shelton and big givers in the republican party will go with him. >> i think -- >> are they -- >> absolutely. one of the reason paul singer went for him was on the issue of
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israel. >> steve smidt. >> the race now will be trump. it is so weird. back to you guys, it is ironic cruz got more hawkish, rubio is hawkish and trump is the guy that says the iraq war is a disaster. back to you, guys. >> i hate to raise something negative but success in a place like iowa, politics is still a dirty business in many aspects and that can bring new scrutiny to people that haven't had it and just should be floated out there but chris, thank you chiefly from all of us in new york for great conversations out there tonight. it's been terrific to listen to. with that another break and we'll continue on the other side.
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the time has come to thank the team we rationally believe
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to be the best at this for an amazing night of coverage and yes, that involves the people in this room. the people that cycled through this room, nicole wallace not here but an establish the republican out this evening. >> poor kid. going to be a rough week ahead. >> lauren, steve is here in thewet pore session at the end of the desk. the folks you don't get to see who get none of the glory in control rooms and behind cameras and scurrying to airplanes. the people that did scurry to airplanes like andrea and casey, my friend named rachel who is the pilot of all things here in this room. thanks. >> this has been a lot of fun. let's do it again. >> yeah, something tells me we'll get that chance whether we want it or not. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for being with us tonight.
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welcome back. two parties and two stories tonight. there is the leading story, two close to call as we go into the overnight hours. we had a republican victory comparatively early in the evening with ted cruz taking the iowa caucus, but tonight as we go into the night, it's the democrats that are gathering the

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