tv The Last Word With Lawrence O Donnell MSNBC February 2, 2016 7:00pm-8:01pm PST
be a victory. he outperformed expectations last night by a factor of more than ten. he got 12 votes in the state of iowa. he's not getting puffed off the list any time. he's exceeding expectations and he's in it for the long haul. the field on the republican side is a strange thing this far into the race, but it persists. they all persist. 11 of these people are still running. it's never going to end. this is our life now forever. that does it for us tonight. we'll see you again tomorrow from new hampshire. now it's time for the last word. >> this week is going to be maybe the cheapest week in the campaign. new hampshire is so small they can walk from one event to the other in new hampshire. it doesn't cost them much to stay alive in new hampshire. >> snow tires, but other than that you're right.
tonight, we will award the last word medal of honor for political bravery in iowa. take your time and think about it, i don't care how long you think about it you will not guess who is getting that award tonight. hillary clinton won the coin toss maybe, but no one's sure who really won the democratic caucuses. on the republican side everyone is absolutely sure who was the biggest looser. >> our country's going to hell. >> donald trump left last night with a title he is not used to holding, looser. >> we finished number two. >> trump was selling the citizenle, not the stake. >> when it comes to great steaks, i've just raised the steaks. >> marco rubio surprising a lot of people with a late surge. he came in a close third. >> they told me i had no chance
because my hair wasn't gray enough. >> he's coming in now with a huge target on his back. >> when senator rubio gets here. >> what's a bubble boy? >> he lives in a bubble. >> boy. >> i hope you guys ask me some questions. >> it looks like we are in a virtual tie. >> i am so thrilled to i'm coming to new hampshire after winning iowa. >> do you worry that this could be a repeat of history the way obama upset her? >> no, i don't, but barack obama is not bernie sanders. >> now we're going to style the world again. >> donald trump has not mastered the expectations game. here he is in iowa on saturday. >> unless i win, i would consider it a big fat beautiful and by the way very expensive waste of time. >> the big fat beautiful and by
the way very expensive waste of time left donald trump four points behind ted cruz in iowa last night with marco rubio just one point behind. tonight donald trump simply lied about coming closer to first place than third place. >> i came in second. i came in a strong second. third was quite a bit away. close to 3,000 votes away. there was a big difference between second and third. >> the big fat beautiful very expensive waste of time was actually most expensive for jeb bush who's campaign and super pac spent $2,884 per vote in iowa, a record high for iowa, a record high for planet earth in any election for any vote. jeb bush finished at 3%. but today jeb bush is headed into new hampshire in a statistical tie for third place with marco rubio and john kasich in the latest university of
massachusetts poll of new hampshire voters that has donald trump at 38 and ted cruz at 14. in new hampshire tonight donald trump offered this explanation for some of ted cruz's campaign tactics in iowa. >> what kind of people do we have running for office? no, it's honestly really, really dishonest and i think i know why. you know? because he was born in canada. >> explains everything. joining us now alex wagoner, and robert costa and and stewart stev stevens. alex, donald trump certainly has ted cruz figured out. >> all that dirty campaigning. that's a canadian thing. >> can i say i think it would behoove the media not to sound the death nol for donald trump's
campaign as yet. keep in mind that people voted for donald trump and people have been not because he's a winner, but because he voices for a certain conservative for whom he remains a very potent and viable candidate. i mean he is leading by 20 points in new hampshire. he's leading by double digits in other polls and collectively he and ted cruz, who are at extreme ends of the republican party got over 50% of the vote in iowa. this strain of conservativisms is not going anywhere as yet. >> robert costa, i'm fascinated about how muted trump was tonight in new hampshire about canada. that was his only reference to ted cruz being canadian born and there's a lot of french canadian in new hampshire talking about canada up in new hampshire is a
different thing perhaps than talking about it in iowa. do you detect on the trump side that they're going to keep the candidatan references muted or eliminate them as long as they're in new hampshire? >> i think you're analysis is spot on based on my reporting. trump will be a little more muted when it comes to canada and cruz because his attacks on him were all about iowa. he saw cruz as a threat in iowa. here in new hampshire he has many main stream rivals. >> stewart stevens your reaction to what happened last night in iowa, you have been predicting for a long time that you didn't think trump was going to be able to win when people had to actually cast votes. >> yeah, when you think about that it was a conservative estimate because donald trump is an unlikely guy to win an iowa caucus. i think new hampshire is very
per plex. when you look at the poll in iowa it didn't have the numbers exactly right, but you could see where this was headed. donald trump had a one to one unfavorable within the republican party. that's unusual. it's like a general election number. so i'm going to be very, very curious to see where he is with his fave after iowa. we're in a horse race, but the internal numbers are what i would look at to see how people are reacting to him now and i think we just don't know. >> he's very angry now at ted cruz for saying that donald trump is anything but an opponent of obamacare. let's listen to what donald trump said about this. >> i have been opposed to obamacare from the day they conceived it and ted cruz comes out with an ad that i'm in favor
of obamacare. can you believe this? just like he did with carson where carson he said left iowa. he's out of the race. these guys said he quit the race, he's gone he's out, send your votes to him. what kind of people are we dealing with with these politicians and made up liar honestly and made up stories. >> let's just take a look at where the made up story comes from. this is donald trump on 60 minutes just a couple of months ago. >> universal health care. >> i am going to take care of everybody. i don't care if it costs me votes or not. >> the uninsured person is going to be taken of? yes. >> how? >> i would make a deal with hospitals to take care of people. >> who pays for it? >> the government is going to pay for it. >> when you finish laughing, he said in there i don't care if it costs me votes or not. apparently he does care if it
costs him votes. he's fighting for those votes now. >> if you're talking about actual policy he leaves the door so wide open he could be in support of anything. that's the problem with donald trump if you press him for details, he might end up being more liberal than bernie sanders on some issues or as liberal. now that he has some real competition in and is feeling it breathing down his neck he's going to be forced to explain prior positions. >> robert, political reporters are the only people who hate policy questions more than candidates, so donald trump gets few of them, but the policy question is the most dangerous thing that donald trump can face. what do you expect ted cruz and the others to be trying to exploit in terms of policy positions in the next week in new hampshire where they've got donald trump on tape as in the 60 minutes situation? >> the strategy on policy for
cruz is really -- it's fundamental level strategy about ideology. cruz is coming out of iowa making the case that he's the lone true conservative in the race who has roots in the conservative movement. and by highlighting these past comments trump's made about the president's health care law cruz is trying to say he's not a conservative at his core. he may have a hard line view on immigration and he may be conservative in how he critiques the obama administration, that's where cruz thinks he wins the nomination because the party will lean to the hard right. >> are policy points going to matter in the next seven days in new hampshire? >> i think less than tempment and tone and just a sense of gravity. i think new hampshire has had a chance to look at these candidates and i think that's why some of the more experienced
candidates are doing well. to me, the greatest weakness donald trump has is the essence of donald trump. as a political figure he's ridiculous and he hasn't gotten less. he's lazy. he hasn't studied policy and he's not taking this process seriously. i mean that was what stiffing fox was really about. it was that i don't have do this, i'm above this. in new hampshire i just don't think that works any better than it does in iowa. people want someone who respects not only the office they're running for, but the process you have to go through to get that office and he hasn't down any town halls. he only has three events scheduled this week so far. you have to assume he's going to get more, but still i just think it's right there at that essence. i wouldn't take him seriously enough to even try to debate policy with him. >> robert costa, before the break here, you've been around the trump campaign today. how much do they regret skipping that debate in iowa?
>> they don't regret it. they stick with their boss. it was fascinating to watch trump up close for three hours. he stopped by a campaign office. i think he's listening to criticisms like those from stewart about his commitment to the race. that was a concern he didn't have the ground game so today he went to an unanaunsed stop to his campaign office. that's a new kind of trump that we're seeing right now unfold in new hampshire. >> thank you both for joining us tonight. really appreciate it. coming up, frank rich joins me with his unique take on iowa and new hampshire and later who was -- think about this, who was the bravest political candidate in iowa? was engineered... ...to help sense danger before you do.
>> i wish to put it plainly that the government has taken a firm decision to release him unconditionally. the government will make a decision on the day of his release. >> he was released nine days later after 27 years in prison. he spent 18 of those 27 years at the robin island prison. frank rich has been a political analyst, executive producer, it will take all of his skills to analyze what we saw in iowa last night, what we're going to see in new hampshire this week. frank rich is next. advil pain relievers are used by more households
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on june 16th when we started this journey there were 17 candidates. i was told by everybody do not go to iowa. you could never finish even in the top ten. i said but i have friends in iowa and i know a lot of people in iowa. i think they'll really like me. let's give it a shot. they said don't do it. i said i have to do it. and we finished second and i want to tell you something, i'm just honored. i'm really honored. and i want to congratulate ted and i want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates including mike huckabee who has become a good friend of mine. so congratulations to everybody. >> joining us now, frank rich writer for new york magazine and executive producer. frank, first of all, the theater critic in you.
a good performance by donald trump last night. the concession speech, an interesting take on it. in his case the shortest speech he's ever given. >> it was terribly moving. watching it just now i thought of speaking of a show that many people now the music man. it's sort of like horrer old hi when he came to sell a bill of goods to iowa and he got his you know what handed to him. >> so voters for the first time have spoken about donald trump and it wasn't favorable and there's ted cruz who had the governor of the state campaigning against him, donald trump throwing everything at him he could possibly throw at him. what does it tell us about the state of the republican race now? >> i don't think a lot. i think that as we know and people constantly are saying today people who have won in iowa on the republican side have not gone on to be president in
recent years. to me the most interesting thing is if you take cruz's vote total, trump's vote total, ben carson who some may recall is still in the race and carly fiorina, if you add them up it's 62% and that's the far right in my view outsider vote. you take rubio and the other so called establishment candidates, they had 23% of the vote. so you have a party that's very, very conservative and it seems to me still it's between cruz and trump no matter how good rubio's showing was yesterday. >> let's isolate on rubio for a minute. isn't he the most conservative person who is associated with that so-called establishment lane? is that the best place to be if that lane has any hope? >> yes, i think -- it probably
is because he's positioned himself quite far to the right. i mean, he's against the bush and the case of inses and rape. he's anti-gay marriage. he has a very foreign policy. he's backed away from any kind of immigration reform. so he's not that far away in views from cruz or trump or sarah pal inor the rest of them. >> it seemed like it may be that ted cruz has really found the way to drive donald trump crazy, which we just saw in the previous segment which is to quote trump against trump. trump on 60 minutes saying he's for universal health care for everyone, the government will take care of people, the government will pay for it. obviously back in september he had no idea what those -- what that meant in terms of republican policy orthodox when
he was saying it and now in new hampshire he's trying to deny that he is in any way in favor of the government helping people out with health care. >> yeah, i think stewart stevens earlier had it right. it's a lazy campaign on trump's part. he is completely improvised so there's no there, there, so he has great animal instincts to know when he's cornered and he's going to run to the other corner, but there's no independent eleintellectual foundation from one minute to the next. >> things are getting clearer, but possibly more tense on the democratic side. martin o'malley has gone on his way and so we have the one that everyone knew who it was going to come down. what do you see happening as they move into new hampshire?
>> obviously new hampshire is almost full proof for bernie sanders. it would be shocking if he lost it. it would be a huge jolt to his campaign, but i don't think that's going to happen. it's a neighboring state and everything else about new hampshire says bernie sanders. we get to south carolina and nevada and places like that it will be interesting and i suspect that hillary clinton will do a lot better than in these first two contests, but the fact remains in my view she's a dull candidate, not terribly inspiring and i think the democrats have a problem because i think they have two leading candidates who are problematic in the national election even though they may be running against a republican whom they should be able to easily beat. >> do you imagine the democrats
witnessing the phenomenon when george bush experienced when he ran and people hadn't anticipated and bill clinton won? >> i think there is some of that. i also would argue that hillary clinton softens herself up in a way because she just -- it's not clear what her message is. she's not transparent about the various controversies some of which republicans call scandals, but they are controversies and should be straightened out. you still feel the fundraising for the clinton foundation of hugely paid speaking engagements, there's a reason why polls say that people don't trust her and she has to clear that up. i really feel she's her own worst enemy, much more than the republicans or bernie sanders is. >> we're going to have to leave it there for tonight. thank you very much for joining us again.
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caucuses? answer we will never know. we have no idea how many people actually showed up to caucus for bernie sanders and we have no idea exactly how many people showed up to caucus for hillary clinton. the democratic side of the iowa caucus is the most anti-democratic exercise that occurs in american politics. it violates the first principal of fair and free elections worldwide, which is the secret ballot, it gets worse from there. it is not a one person, one vote exercise. it is simply a crude method for iowa to begin a long process of selecting delegates for the democratic national convention, a process that will not actually be complete until june. we will not know for certain until june who has the most delegates from iowa at the democratic national convention. the statistical separation between hillary clinton and bernie sanders stands at 2/10th of a percent and that might not
represent the difference of even a single person showing up at the iowa caucuses. so the results don't currently support a claim of victory by either candidate, which leaves us with political analysts favorite way of analyzing such outcomes, the expectation game. >> when this campaign started, bernie sanders was 40 points behind in iowa, a 50/50 split for sanders sure looks like a win from here. >> if she had gotten this outcome three or four months ago, it would have been seen as a sign of weakness. the fact that it got so close that bernie is a formable candidate she can count this as a vikctory. >> joining us now the washington
bureau chief and msnbc political analyst. during the break i discovered i should have realized. here's what i knew, the iowa caucuses were dragged into prominence in 1972 when it was discovered they could be used to dem trait a candidacy had support and who it turns out was the mad genius behind that move by him. >> i'm not going to -- i'm not one for it. my dad is from iowa. >> mr. karl wagoner. >> he has a lot of iowa pride and iowa helped in this -- a lot -- he needed more help. >> so karl knew there was a strange little process there that could you go out at that time that no one else knew about and we could show he has all this support? >> exactly. >> i think we should blame karl. you do not visit the sins of the father. >> i was not born until decades
later. >> you're clean. david, this is as messy as it gets. i have more than once had the honor of being an election's observer for fair and free elections in former solcounties. we never would have said that's a fair and clean election. >> there's so much that's wrong with us that we could use the rest of the show, on the republican side it doesn't pick winners. i was explaining the process to my teen-age daughter a couple of nights ago. i guess she was very bored and i got a few seconds into it and she said this isn't fair to single parents and poor people who can't take the night off. at least when you vote on election day you have the whole day to get to the polls. you don't have to spend three hours sitting around and make a declaration in front of your
neighbors when you want to have a secret vote, at the end of the day i'd like to propose a deal. i'd like the hillary people to stop calling this a glorious win for hillary clinton and i'm like the bernie people to stop saying this proves he can become president. >> that's right. >> good luck in that. good luck in that. >> jonathan allen, what one waiter or waitress who had dinner -- the dinner shift last night was able to vote in this. we could go on and about that. what's true about this is true everywhere, they're not really stress tested for extremely close results as we saw in florida. barack obama won this over john edward and hillary clinton so there wasn't any real argument the next day about who gets to
say they won. once you get down into these tight ranges syou don't have someone you can call a winner. >> there aren't people flipping coins when someone wins by eight points. >> the coin flip came as a surprise to all of us. this was something i hadn't seen before and there they were explaining to us and showing us video of the most recent coin flip in iowa which hillary clinton won. but where do you see this in the dynamics of new hampshire? what does this pois each candidate for in new hampshire? >> i think bernie sanders obviously has to win new hampshire to get some energy behind this campaign. i think he's leading in the polls there. he's an absolute must win for him at this point. he had momentum in iowa. i think the clinton people stopped the momentum. you can say it's a tie or virtual tie. we don't know what the delegates are going to be later, but the ap called it for hillary clinton. that's the gold standard in terms of how the media treats
things and how we'll look at it until that iowa caucus later in the year in june or july. so i think bernie sanders really has to get a win under his belt and there really aren't states built for him to win as well as iowa and new hampshire are for quite a while on the map after that. i mean vermont is better built for him to win, but there aren't that many. >> so if we had flipped 2/10th of a percent would we be saying bernie sanders. >> i think on the surface it's good that sanders gave lihillara run for her money, the fact that it was this close is a boon to clinton's ground game. a lot of people aren't saying that, but it's actually true. 45% of iowa caucus goers identify as socialists. it's kind of impressive that she made the inroads that she did.
the rest of the map is going to be more favorable except new hampshire and vermont. >> i take a different perspective here. she has been around and established and her comes a guy -- >> you know who votes in caucuses? >> i still know who votes in the caucus, but three days ago he wasn't a democrat. bernie sanders is a jewish socialist who calls himself that and i think that if hillary clinton couldn't sort of hold him back further at bay than she did by .2% and particularly with the young people, she just so lost with young people and she should win other states and it shouldn't pose a threat down the road, but i think it shows weaknesses with her own campaign and her ability to connect with democratic voters and progressive voters, which you still have to do to win down the road primaries and to win a general. >> hold your attacks on david for the next segment.
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i come tonight with a very full heart. i want especially to thank new hampshire over the last week i listened to you and in the process i found my own voice. >> that was hillary clinton eight years ago after her come from behind win over barack obama in the new hampshire primary. can she do it again? a university of massachusetts poll shows bernie sanders at 63%, hillary clinton at 30%. we're back with jonathan allen, david corn and alex wagoner. so she just has to make up 30 points now. >> no big deal. >> what do you think? she has seven days. >> the best thing the clinton campaign can do at this point is lower expectations so when she
loses by 15 points, this is the fundamental problem with the hillary clinton candidacy is she can't seem to find her voice and in this particular moment when there are a lot of really loud voices it makes her inability to do so that much more pronounced. >> let's get perspective here. eight years ago coming out of iowa, the new hampshire poll coming out of iowa showed barack obama at 34, hillary clinton at 31, john edwards at 20. so hillary clinton just had to make up three points. that's all she had to do. she did it. she finished in new hampshire at 39.6% of the vote, barack obama at 36.5% of the votes. so she got three points ahead of barack obama with maybe a total movement of six points in a week. so david corn, this is an entirely different gap.
>> making up three points versus 30 points is about a ten fold difference if my math is okay. but the interesting thing here is that the clinton's have always had what they consider to be a pretty good relationship with new hampshire. in 1992 clinton was the come back kid there, not because he came in first, he came in second. the senator next door won, but clinton went through the jennifer flowers scandal. in 2008 when barack obama was the one out of iowa, they gave hillary an injection of oxygen to keep her campaign alive. and now this year, even though bernie is from next door, i find it interesting that he is just trampling here in these polls and i think it's going to be hard for her to come back and she doesn't have a long stretch, the longest stretch of her lifetime between new hampshire and nevada and south carolina. it's going to be a difficult two weeks for her. >> the advantage to next door is
that people in new hampshire already knew who john kerry was because of media being in the senate for 20 years. that's the advantage. it's name recognition. people in new hampshire know who bernie sanders is. they knew who he was in june. let's look where these candidates were in june of 2015. they knew who hillary clinton was. they gave her 56% support, they gave bernie sanders 24%. they knew who both of those people are. they changed their minds about hillary clinton and they changed their minds about bernie sanders. >> yeah, i think they see bernie sanders more legitimate as he was rising up in iowa. i think they don't like hillary clinton as much as they did before, but i think hillary clinton's new hampshire strategy can be summed in in two words.
south carolina. she released an ad today with eric holder who is about as close to president obama as anybody. bill clinton is going down to south carolina later this week to meet with the state democratic legislators and i think what you're going to see is hillary clinton campaign in new hampshire for the next week, try to have the gap be as small as possible with bernie sanders and then try to crush him in south carolina where you've got a very high percentage of the electric rat is african-american. >> alex, how much further does the sanders campaign get after new hampshire? >> that's a huge question. these were the two give mes. he is talking about criminal justice reform. i feel at some point if hillary clinton feels like her campaign is in trouble, president obama is going to have to get on the campaign trail with her. it's not going to be just eric holder. she is going to literally have to carry the obama banner
through the country and say if for nothing else vote for me because i will continue his policies. >> do you want to make a bet if president obama would insert himself in this primary? >> that would be a nuclear civil war on the party. if it would happen, it probably wouldn't happen until march and that would mean hillary's campaign has imploded and i'm not sure barack obama would want to identify with it. >> the daughter of the father of the iowa democratic caucus. >> the dark guards. >> never forget. thank all for joining us tonight. coming up in tonight's last word, the bravest thing we've seen in the iowa campaign. soup and sandwich and somewhere to go, and clean and real and nowhere to be, and warmth
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liz chaeney is trying to ge back into politics. she with drew before the primary citing health issues. in a facebook post yesterday liz announced she's running for wyoming's house seat. what you're seeing here is an updated version of the post, the earlier version included the location where the post was made, virginia. that was spotted by wyoming resident deb simpson who us this screen shot. the campaign told the local paper it was a glitch. we spoke to deb simpson who is the didn't of former wyoming
republican senator and she said it goes back to character and intregty and i think that in the end it's the intregty issue that voters care about. up next, the bravest candidate in the iowa caucuses, you are never ever going to guess who that was. fact. when emergency room doctors choose an otc pain reliever for their patients muscle, back and joint pain. the medicine in advil is their #1 choice. nothing is stronger on tough pain than advil.
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word. eth nal. it is the most important in iowa caucus campaigns. it is the one thing that all the candidates, democrats and republicans, socialists agree on. etha nal. they all agree we should preserve the subject siddy in iowa. all the processing plants in iowa are owned and operated by very rich people and corporations. many of the corn growers in iowa are very rich people and very rich corporations. they are all living on a government handout. it is used as an additive in gasoline. it is the least efficient energy source on the planet. it takes more than a gallon of gasoline to produce a gallon of it. it doesn't reduce our consumption of fossil fuels, it increases the consumption. you can't be a good environment
yi or a good capitalist and be in favor of it. hillary clinton wouldn't oppose it because she wanted to win the iowa caucus and the good socialist bernie sanders supports this very piece of bad socialism and bad environment policy because he wanted to win the aib caucuses. republican presidential candidates don't pretend to be good environmentis and they support it in hope of winning the iowa caucuses, but last night history was made in iowa when for the first time ever an opponent of etha nal socialism won the iowa caucus. >> i'm totally pro eth nal and you have thousands of jobs -- you have thousands of jobs in iowa that are ethanol based.
we never want to be in the grasp of opec again and what we can do to create a lot of fuel -- eventually right now you see low prices. they'll be going up again. they'll be going up again. but i'm very pro ethanol and tr truz is not. >> that's right ted cruz not only huh mill matd trump by beating him, but he beat eth involuntary. he attacked ted cruz on ethanol relentle relentlessly. >> he is the biggest opponent of renewable fuels and he introduced a bill to eliminate the fuel standard. i believe it would be a big mistake for iowa to support him. >> behavery is rare in politics. the bravest thing you can do in politics is say something your audience doesn't want to hear.
hillary clinton and bernie sanders are both in favor of raising taxes, but that's not something their audience in democratic primarieies are oppo in had to. it is not as brave as opposing the ethanol subject siddy in iowa. and then eight years later john mccain flipped and supported the eth nal subject siddy on his way to winning the presidential nominati nomination. that's what's at stake. it can mean the difference between winning and losing the nomination of the white house. to it bends strong politicians into contorted versions of themselves. prior to now running successfully against ethanol is iowa was the stuff of fiction.
>> as many of you are aware in the past i haven't been a big supporter of ethanol. subsidies. i know what you want to hear. telling people what they want to hear is the easest thing you dock in politics, but that's not why i'm here. that's not why i'm running for president. now i know the ethanol suspect sid dees have been good for some are you. >> i could go on and on criticizing every one of ted cruz's policy positions except his position on ethanol. you can disagree with ted cruz on everything and still recognize that standing up to the most powerful in iowa was
the politically bravist thing that any candidate did in iowa this year. it was certainly ted cruz's first contribution to good government and sadly in his case it may very well be his last. but what ted cruz did last night in iowa means that four years from now candidates for president in both parties might not decide that they have to surrounder their consciousness to the lobby. they might they don't have to support policy that makes rich businesses much richer. they might actually decide that they can and should do the right thing. if we ever do the right thing and get rid of the ethanol subsidy it might be because last night ted cruz showed
presidential candidates that you can win in iowa without bending to king corn. >> you're not a fan? >> not until today. iowa. >> there was a big turn out and we won. >> who is winning the narrative. >> we astounded the world. then, how does donald trump respond to defeat. >> you have many, many people that aren't doing well. i am doing well. >> since when is third place a victory? >> we're incredibly grateful and excited about all this. the trouble with deciding who will lead the free world with a coin toss. >> tie has been broken by a coin flip and will go tbe