tv All In With Chris Hayes MSNBC February 3, 2016 12:00am-1:01am PST
we now know who won the votes in iowa. >> there was a big turn out and we won. >> who is winning the narrative. >> we astounded the world. then, how does donald trump respond to defeat. >> you have many, many people that aren't doing well. i am doing well. >> since when is third place a victory? >> we're incredibly grateful and excited about all this. the trouble with deciding who will lead the free world with a coin toss. >> tie has been broken by a coin flip and will go to bernie sanders for the delegate. >> "all in" starts right now. good evening. now the battle in votes have ended, the fight for control of
the narrative begins in earnest. in terms of hard numbers, the winners and losers are pretty straightforward. hillary clinton narrowly eked out a victory. finished less than a point back. then there are the winners and losers determined by the political media industrial complex based on a pretty precise combination, scoring the entrance polls and handicapping the performance versus expectation. no candidate seemed to have that second contest in mind more than marco rubio who started spinning long before his third place finish last night leaking his three, two, one plan. third in iowa, second in new hampshire, first in south carolina, two weeks ago. last night he had this to say about losing to ted cruz and donald trump by a smaller margin than polls predicted.
>> this is the moment they said would never happen. for months they told us we had no chance. think told us we offered too much optimism. >> you did read all those op-ed about how he couldn't finish third in iowa. rubio is being crowned the real winner. the establishment's only alternative to hope against cruz and trump. second place was seen as the end of the road for donald trump who built his campaign with the idea that with him in charge, america will be a winner. there was plenty to shout and go around. an old tweet of trump from 2013 made the rounds, no one
remembers who came in second. not only did he finish second in a state that rewards evangelicals. last night most got in line and voted for donald j. trump. in fact, with last night's high turn out, he earned more votes from iowa republicans than any other candidate in all of history except for one. that's ted cruz, last night. i talked to one of those voters who was caucuses for the first time. >> i like donald trump. he's not bought and paid for. i look at politicians.
i might be radical here they tell people what they want. the donors hire them for services. they do with the donors want. i like trump, he's his own man. >> his big win last night sustained by an extensive agreement and impressive messages when ted cruz took a punch from donald trump and bounced back. cruz, still has plenty of cash on hand to fight it out in new hampshire and beyond. now, on the democratic side, after a night of counting and persuading andand navigating the state party, hillary clinton was declared the winner by a margin of four delegates out of a total of 1,406. those numbers may not reflect who turned out to vote for each candidate. in some precincts, delegates to the local county convention elect the other delegates up the chain were awarded through a
coin toss. today, bernie sanders told reporters he's not ready to concede the caucuses. >> we want to look at it. when you have, again, i was on plane last night. i'm here right now. we the other time to analyze it. people in iowa are taking a look at that. it may be the case for some delegates were selected based on a flip of the coin but not the best way to do democracy. >> clinton narrowly escaped what would have been a devastating in 2008 behind barack obama and john edwards. while the campaign is touting clinton's victory, he's the first woman ever to win iowa. it's impossible to ignore what bernie sanders pulled off. the 74-year-old self-described socialist drew comparison to protests. he finished in a virtual tie. ledding into new hampshire, it's
all about the expectations game and it's clear what message hillary clinton is trying to send. >> i was thrilled by winning and getting that boost out of iowa here in new hampshire where i am in senator sanders backyard, as you know as a political expert. new hampshire votes for neighbors. i have to really get out there and make my case, which i intend to do this week. >> moments ago in new hampshire where he was endorsed by scott broken, a notably subdued donald trump attempted the difficult task of lowering expectations while maintaining his signature swagger. >> i'd love to finish first. again, it would still not be horrible because you're competing against a lot of very talented people that have been politicians all their lives. i've been a politician for six months. i'd love to finish first. >> second wouldn't be horrible.
>> wouldn't be horrible, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. i can think of worst things, but i'd like to finish first. >> joining me now join walsh, national correspondent for the nation and publisher of the federalist. we have to start with marco rubio's remarkably, effective, hubris here. it's almost like he's attempting to pull a jedi mind trick telling everyone i came in first when we can all read the numbers. joan, in some ways it was effective because the benchmark set by the polling and he did out perform polling the most of any candidate. >> he exceeded expectations. that speech really did require sputspa. i was laughing. it told us that he came in third and out perform. it did set him ahead for now the other folks in his lane, john kasich, poor jeb bush who got
one delegate. chris christie. it stays tough. those four guys don't like each other. there's no establishment to come in and knock some heads together and say marco is our guy. he did the best. he's trailing. he's trailing bush and kasich in new hampshire. there's still a fight into new hampshire. just claiming victory before ted cruz can speak will not change fact he's got tough work to do and he doesn't have people who look they are anxious to go away. chris christie is calling him bubble way, insulting him in the way he does best. >> ben, i think the thing that is struck me is first of all, you say this three, two, one idea. you got the three. that's the easiest of three, two one. now you have this benchmark for yourself, the second. ted cruz, ted cruz will have a lot of momentum. if there's one unquestionable winner last night, it's ted cruz. ted cruz won the night last
night. he's got the biggest margin. he came this first. he's got a lot of momentum. he's got money and betting which flipped rubio and trump without cruz getting a bump, would be insane. ted cruz has a very good shot at nomination. >> i agree. you have to say he's the front-runner. he has the resources for it. he will go into south carolina probably and focus more there. he has a lot of people there who are ready to help him. i think this is situation where marco rubio has been all about the narrative related to the establishment dollars for the past several weeks and months trying to make the case, i'm your guy. i'm the closest thing that you can get to what you actually want. you need to ride with me. i think that's really what this case was about. it's more about speaking to the establishment. it was funny to see him reference that line similar to the one that barack obama made back in 2008 for a third place finish as opposed to a first
place finish. that was pretty funny. >> they said it could never happen. all these people writing these grant, elegant dissertations. charlie, on the democratic side, you and i ran into each other on the streets of marshall town, iowa outside of bernie sanders launch event. you and i were talking. i was saying my private guess from what i could glean is. i thought hillary clinton would win by three to five points. i thought they have a first rate organization in iowa. i was skeptical they could build the capacity to turn out people. were you surprised by last night's result? >> first of all, chris, my facility in the april journal is completely powered by clean energy. i'm just telling you. it's completely powered by ethanol. i think i just won three votes in a caucus in iowa somewhere.
i thought this would be one of those things where you didn't really know who won until the next day. that's partly because especially an the democrat side. the iowa caucuses are an insane way to make any decision. i thought he was showing remarkable strength or there was a remarkable attraction to him in different parts of the state especially along the mississippi river and those old industrial towns where you've got very big catholic vote. i do think that -- obviously, he would have been better off if he won. he did show more strength than people thought he had in the last weekend. >> joan, from what i could tell, i think that clinton operation
in iowa did an excellent job. to me, the idea that the issue here is the campaign is a little, i think misdirected. clearly there's a message situation happening here. we'll talk later in the show about whether to adjust it or not. what do you think -- what is your take away out of this strange, almost high that ended up happening last night. >> well, look, i think bernie sanders had a great night, but she did too. she did win. this is -- i'm still here so i can say this is still a bernie sanders state. it's a very white state. it's liberal. 43% of iowa democrats told the washington post they are socialists. god bless them. i'm happy to hear it. it wasn't a must win state. i think he did well enough with an almost win to get a little bit of momentum going. it's not the same as if he had won. it's all we would be talking about if she lost and he won is when does she drop out. we would.
we heard a bit of that last night. how quickly does she have to drop out if she loses iowa. it's a tough state. she came in third in 2008. it's not just little league or t ball to say you did really well. she does get the trophy going forward. she did win. she also won -- i watched a little caucus in waterloo which is the most diverse city in iowa where john louis visited the other night. she took those ten delegates, waterloo, iowa looks more like the rest of the country than the rest of iowa does. she really does have a lot of advantages going forward. bernie is changing the narrative. i think he did himself a lot of good there. >> ben, charlie just referenced ethanol. to me, if there was was one unambiguous winner was ted cruz and one ambiguous loser was ethanol. cruz did the impossible. he said screw ethanol.
he received this backlash. they said i don't care who you vote for, don't let it be at the scene cruz. he comes away with a win last night. i think it genuinely impacted the power of the ethanol lobby last night. >> terry actually went and caucused for donald trump last night. i think that's a good thing. the other message i found interesting is one, to you point earlier, donald trump isn't completely going away. this is false frame coming in second as being something that will mortally wound him. he is the guy that bleeds now. i was so impressed with the amount of support that bernie sanders got from younger voters. that 87%, is incredibly impressive to me. i wonder how many of those voters will go over to hillary
clinton afterwards as she tries to hold this coalition that requires you to win the younger voters. will she be able to win them over with her message or will it be a challenge for her as she goes into a general election. >> i remember back in the days of '08, people were extrapolating a lot about the exit polls between hillary clinton and barack obama into the general. barack obama is having a hard time with these white voters. the fact of the matter is, a democratic primary electorate is different than a general. particularly when you're looking at the cross tabs. how long does this go? what i saw on both sides last night were results that keep this race going further thad things gone differently. >> first of all, if ted cruz is the republican nominee, hillary clinton will not have to worry about the young voters going to her in the general election. this will be a long, long process. bernie sanders has a lot of
money in the bank. donald trump, i agree completely with ben, that this whole notion that now that he's lost a primary all the air will go out. he's going to have the other candidates doing all of his dirty work on marco rubio. chris christie started today with that. he's got a lot of money. he answers to nobody but himself. there's no establishment really on the republican side to take him out. i think you're going at least until super tuesday and probably beyond. >> it's going to be a long one. thank you very much. still ahead for a candidate who's campaign is based on being a winner, what do you do with a second place finish? hillary clinton breathes a sigh of relief. does her campaign need to correct course after such a close finish? last night saw record turn out for the republican caucus. should democrats be worried? you may remember two years
i was expected to come in anywhere like 10, 11, 12, 13. i ended upcoming in second. didn't devote tremendous time to it. didn't devote tremendous money to it. in fact, i guess in terms of money per vote, i'm at the bottom meaning the most efficient. i came in second. a came in a strong second. third was quite a bit away. i think 2,500 close to 3,000 votes away. it was a big difference between second and third. >> everyone was wondering what does it look like when donald trump finally loses. that's what it looks like. spinning his second place finish. about an hour ago in millford, new hampshire trump appeared with the man who endorsed him, scott brown. he lost his bid to become senator two years ago which was two years after he lost his
re-election as senator from massachusetts. trump welcomed to endorsement capping off a fascinating 24 hours. gave a fairly gracious concession speech. he even took a break from twitter. once he reappeared online he returned to form. blaming the media. the media has not covered my long shot. anybody who watched all of ted cruz's far too long, rambling would say that's his howard dean moment. you guys have undercounted his strength. last night, well, he had a little bit. >> a little. >> last night he underperforms the polls. does this contribute any data
that's useful this modelling what will happen? >> he underperformed his polls. they say maybe i don't want to vote for that celebrity. i think that's one factor. the big thing that will change is the media coverage. he's gotten so much media coverage and now he has to split it with rubio and cruz. it could contribute to him declining. >> there's a question about whether the trump voters show up. i think it's wrong to say trump voters didn't show up. there were tens of thousands of people who really did show up. one take away last night is there's a basis of support. it's real thing. >> sure.
some of the light polls did show that some people were shifting away from trump. the other thing with high turn out is you could have high turn out where people are showing up to vote against him. ted cruz got the highest vote total ever. we'll have to see what happens in new hampshire. >> he was able to go a long time without being attacked a lot whether it was negative ads or getting full scale assault on him. we saw his favorables go down when there were ads on the air that were negative attack ads. >> you have super pacs going after him and jeb bush will walk the walk instead of just talking. i expect his favorable ratings in new hampshire may drop even further. >> the game theory still applies. it's been that no one wants to do marco rubio's dirty work for
marco. when you're talking about christie, kasich and rubio have all been attacking each other. is there any reason to think that behavior will change? >> maybe it doesn't need to change. look what marco rubio accomplished. he didn't get first or even second but he did finish strongly. who is to say when we get this media coverage that he doesn't coalesce in new hampshire and rise in polls there. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. coming up, i had a chance to talk with iowa caucus goers last night. as i watched the whole process unfold, i couldn't help but wonder if this is the best idea. more on that next.
last night i was in iowa to watch hundreds of thousands of iowans heading to their caucus site. it's a process that takes time and commitment. it's good for television but not so great for democracy. >> anyone not registered to vote? come over to this end of the table, please. >> chris hayes is at one of the caucus sites tonight. >> all these people starting to talk to each other and wearing their gear and talk to friends about who they want to support. >> hi. >> i'm in play.
>> caucus for bernie. >> you're caucusing for bernie. >> i think rand. >> jeb bush. >> hillary. >> i like donald trump. he's not bought and paid for. >> who are you caucusing for tonight? >> bernie sanders. >> who did you caucus for last time? >> i don't recall. >> right now you see the supporters coming in and a lot of volunteers and the precinct captains. they are those people who will stand up this the room and make their pitch for their candidate. >> we have someone here for carly fiorina? any words for carly. >> hillary clinton fears senator rubio. she constantly attacks him. >> what about mr. gilmore? >> you want someone to go to
washington the get along, senator cruz is not your man. >> huckabee. no one for huck. >> how many people in here like obama? anybody? i think it's safe to say nobody. >> we send a clear signal we're prepared for war. >> i'm asking you from the bottom of my heart to support what i believe in. make the right choice. vote for donald trump and let's make america great again. >> how did this turn out tonight? >> just over 200 people, which is a lot more than we expected downtown. >> we ran out of new registration forms. >> i'm in an auditorium. that's the sanders supporters right now. that small group of people on stage are the 24 o'malley supporters deciding where to go. >> martin o'malley 24. hillary clinton, 182.
>> marco rubio. >> bernie sanders, 233. [ applause ] >> rand paul. >> one of the more startling updates from this very close race tonight on the democratic side is maybe coin flipping had something to do with the results that we got thus far. >> you're rick santorum captain up there. >> by voting for rick we send a clear signal we're prepared for war. if you haven't seen them, i have -- hold on. >> there you go. this is the actual sheet, the tally sheet. santorum there's an x next to him. >> yeah. >> you didn't vote for him? >> as i was writing down, my pen
24 points to hillary clinton. the final votes were tallied. party early this morning giving clinton 49.9% of the vote and sanders 49.6%. a virtual tie. in some ways it still seem like less of an accomplishment. that's partly because sanders couldn't quite pull out the decisive victory in the state where the demographics are much for favorable. the clinton barely escaping a loss led to talks of a campaign shake up. according to the new york times mr. and mrs. clinton were
discussing bring on additional staff members. reporter maggie pointed out the clinton's muscle memory is to talk shape upbringing in old hands saved her last night. now a source says there are no plans to shake up the staff. i sat down with democratic congressman keith ellison. i began by asking whether the clinton campaign was in good shape for the contest to come or do they adjust their strategy after struggling to beat sanders? >> i think she's doing fine. i think bernie had a good night. hillary had a better one. that's what she needed to do. she did what she needed to do which was win iowa. what her stock and trade is she's experienced. she's done this before. she's the person who is most prepared to be president. that's what she needs to keep doing.
i wouldn't change a lot. >> congressman, you've campaigned a bit with bernie sanders. i think last night a victory, an outright victory would have shocked the political world. i think had he lost by five or seven points everyone would have said that was nice. it was fun while it lasted. where is the sanders campaign after last night's result? >> bernie is in this. he's excited. his base is excited. his campaign is excited. this thing is within our grasp. we're now turning to new hampshire. i think the excitement is doing nothing but building. >> let me ask you this, last night when you watch, he did his speech late. that he have the same message from day one. that said, at a certain point, doesn't the message have to
expand out wards a bit if he's going go play deep into this race? >> the problems facing americans are pretty persistent. income inequality. stagnating pay, unaffordable college tuition. the trade deals that are offshore and exporting our jobs. he's hitting on the very things in an authentic, engaging way that are affecting people every single day. those things are not going go away. i think bernie sanders better continue to talk to those things. there's a whole lot of people who have not heard that message all across this country. they need to hear somebody who is speaking to their bread and butter stuff. >> howard, in terms of this sort of authenticity of that message. the clinton campaign message has been a lot about her resume and experience which you mention before. does it not give you pause that letter to a tie in iowa and then if you look at the mood of the electorate on the other side,
they couldn't care less about resume. the idea of going to the american people in 2016 with a resume based message for presidency, does that not worry you given what we have seen so far? >> her only message is not just about resume. she was the first person before anybody else got in the race to make sure she would make sure citizens united was reversed. 25, 30 years ago she was chose the children's defense fund over lucrative law career in new york. she probably knows more about health care than anybody running for office. she's been great in encouraging girls to go beyond the boundaries that have been set by society. she's got a will the of reasons that progressive people would want to vote for her. i don't see -- i use the resume argument because that's what pulled me into her campaign. i wanted somebody who was competent in foreign policy.
there's a lot of reasons to vote for hillary clinton besides the resume. >> congressman, there was a moment last night, i think there's been a lot of overblown overcoverage between supporters of the different camps. i think most of that has been fairly trivial. there was a moment last night when the crowd booed hillary clinton when she appeared in that headquarters in iowa. i'm just curious your response to that. >> my response is we've been a high ground campaign. we got to stay a high ground campaign. hillary clinton is not the enemy. she happens to be a contestant in this race. she deserves respect. she has an excellent resume and served this country. we should never forget that. here's the thing, she declared herself to be a progressive. this is awesome news. i'm not saying she's not one. i'm saying it's great that both candidates declare themselves to
be progressives in this race and see themselves and self-identify that way. anybody who is thinking about the progressive movement and the movement to put american citizens first as opposed to the billionaires has got to be glad about that. >> howard, what is your benchmark for new hampshire as you look at this campaign? what's the goal here? >> the goal so to win. if you don't win, you do the best you can. i don't play the expectations game. i know what that is. >> everyone does play the expectations game. good lord, marco rubio has managed to convince the word that a third place finish is the greatest political victory anyone has pulled off in modern era. >> there's a reason for that. it is. there's two primaries going on in the republican side. one is for the accomplishment vote and the other is for the nomination. there's only going to be one accomplishment candidate and marco rubio just put his claim
in for that. if he comes in third in new hampshire and come in first and second on that one, i think you'll kiss christi and kasich good-bye and maybe jeb bush too. >> with this fund raising capacity the sanders campaign has, the plan is to go deep here, right? >> this is not a broke camcampai it's not a bunch of poor people that will stick it out. we has a campaign that has the resources that it needs. no super pac money. average donation around 27 bucks. people are funding this campaign because they believe in it. they're hanging their hopes on it. that's why i'm very convinced we'll go deep into this thing. he's already changed the national dialogue. i'm really excited about that. >> thank you both for your time. >> thank you.
elections are about choices. the main thing i need to say tonight is that as we come here tonight, it's time to officially suspend the campaign. >> people have made their choice. tonight, i have to tell you that i am suspending this presidential bid. >> that's right. the people of iowa have that he had their choice. the battle is over and now it's time to tally. let's update our draft. mike huckabee joined jim webb in having their hopes and dreams of president crushed. which have the latest candidates
to drop out of the race. >> michael steele choosing the second to last. martin o'malley. >> i got a lot of vp potential. >> this game has to be devilish. i'm going go with number six. >> joy reed makes a satanic play at work. >> i think he will run and do very well in iowa. >> or not. michael steele is in the lead with 6,900 points. jess mcih only a hundred points behind. something the media missed last night. don't go anywhere.
books. we have learned a whole lot between who won and lost in iowa. last night gave us fascinating clues about what the state of the race is including a comment hillary clinton made in her victory party that really caught my ear. >> i know that we can finish the job of universal health care coverage for every single man, woman and child. >> what that claim tells us about the democratic race, other lessons from iowa that most people have missed, next.
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i know. i feel like i just saw you. >> that clip, let's start with the lesson about hillary clinton's campaign in that message. i thought that line finishing the job providing universal health care to every man, woman and child is a recognition of the ways in which he the clinton campaign's message is being shaped in response to sanders. >> it's a different message that a week or so before. when she was attacking universal health care. one of the reasons it was a razor thin win is she did this populous pivot and embraced what would have been bernie sanders core issues in this campaign. i think last night was historic. joy will agree one reason was hillary clinton, first woman to win the iowa caucus. we should take a message how bernie sanders challenged the
grip of big money and electrified young people and working class. it's an extraordinary shift in this country's politics. >> they learned so much from 2008 and corrected a lot of mistakes. they definitely did the barack obama 2008 version of the ground game. i was tweeting yesterday when i went to the hillary clinton campaign it was a well oiled machine. when we went to the bernie sanders office it was like a tent revival. the hillary clinton campaign was very disciplined. they are learning from the things that are working for bernie. >> when bernie sanders entered this race, we were looking at inevitability. we are witnessing whatever happens. it's still steep for bernie sanders. he's placed on the agenda of
this campaign. issues that wouldn't have gotten the intention. inequality, taxing the very rich. climate even. this populist agenda will be driven forward. we didn't think was into a bold and populous agenda. it will transform the democratic party and our politics. >> here's the question. he won by 70 points ai don't think people. one of the lessons is hillary clinton's message is adapting in response to bernie sanders. the other is organization matters. they built a heck of a machine over there. the third lesson to me and the thing people aren't talking about enough is do democrats have an enthusiasm issues. there's a lot of clinton supporters and they both had very good organizations. 2008, 239,000 democrats come out. last night it was 171,000.
>> that's right. >> the republicans moving in the opposite direction. 119,000 in 2008. 186,000 last night. if you're a democrat and you look at that -- >> that's a problem. >> the reason it was a narrow loss for bernie sanders, in that 170,000, he had a lower percentage of voters 18 to 30 than barack obama had in 2008 and smaller percentage of first time voters. it went from over 50% to a little over 45%. we're talking about democrats going in the wrong direction. >> that doesn't worry you? >> no, it doesn't. democrats have a better map. they have a better message. i think there's been media mall practice. there should be been more debates. i really do think the
republicans have been fitted enormously. you buried the democrat debates on football. >> let me stop there and make a plug. we have a debate on schedule for thursday night, which as far as i can tell is going to happen on thursday night. >> it was malpractice because for too long the republican message was getting all the attention. hillary clinton is a good debater. >> also what happened outside of the attention on donald trump, there's been a robust debate within the republican sphere. democrats have been locked into this argument for almost a year. they didn't get to get into it. >> the issues, by the way, which are winning issues in this country, affordable college, decent pensions, universal health care, preserving and expanding social security.
these are messages and ideas that were not heard for too long because you had a shut down of real debate. >> here's interesting entrance polling last night. this is democrats. should next president continue obama's policies. continue policies 55%. more liberal, 33%. less liberal, 7%. i'm not sure if i find that surprising. >> not in iowa. iowa is a very liberal democrat cohert. the democrats are really liberal. >> you think 33 is high? >> it's high for democrats. nationally, i think that democrats are not as liberal as iowa and vermont. >> i think it's a mistake for secretary of state clinton to run as a candidate of too much continuity. what she did last night was something different. she pivoted away from that into saying i'm going to be the future. part of the big problem is a lot
of people in this country are still angry on the republican and democratic side. banks are still big. no one has gone to jail for financial fraud. the establishment in this country and their choices have reeked serial devastations. >> how do you run against that? >> after eight years you say that serial devastation. >> there's a portion of democratic left that is angry. it's mainly among white liberals. the same liberals that have been angry at barack obama since 2009. there are some who are people of color and young. i spoke with passionate african-american supporters of bernie sanders. the vast majority of the base is pro-obama. they want to continue obama. >> this will be played out over time. >> bernie sanders needs to introduce himself. i think he will find hearing in states.
>> we'll see. thank you. that is "all in" for this evening. rachel maddow show starts now. >> thank you. you did amazing work in iowa. it was so much fun to watch you. when you found the santorum guy in the sweater vest. >> i was watched that about 15 times today. it cracks me up. it's the perfect moment of the absurdity of this election. >> you found that guy and told that story. it was perfection. thanks to you at home for joining us. in 1980, the front-runner for the republican nomination was ronald reagan. he challenged gerald in 1976. ford did win in 1976 and he went onto lose the general election to jimmy carter. the republican party by 1980 was of the general opinion that ronald reagan was due.