tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC February 10, 2016 12:00am-2:01am PST
what a night it has been here in new hampshire, first in the nation primary. the political year, still young, that continues to surprise early on. let's take a look at what we have learned tonight, the results we have had come in. the races we have called and determined. this was the first call of the night that projected the winner for the democrats. bernie sanders, as expected.
if you want to anger the sanders campaign, adjust as quickly from a neighboring state of vermont. 60-39, the percentage with 69% and the numbers will change as we go throughout the night. bernie sanders addressed an uproarious crowd at his headquarters. >> together, we have sent a message that will echo from wall street to washington, from maine to california. and that is that the government of our great country belongs to all of the people, and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their super
pacs. >> bernie sanders earlier tonight, and now to the republicans, he has done it. he pulled it off. donald trump of new york has won the new hampshire primary. our projected winner just after 8:00 p.m. eastern time tonight. we also called second place fairly early this evening for the governor of ohio. former congressman john kasich. it is the rest of the race that we expect to remain fluid as a higher percent of the vote comes for. the big race was between third, fourth and fifth, between cruz, bush and rubio. chris christie with a very big decision to make. but, the winner for the republicans got his time in front of an uproarious crowd tonight as well. >> in terms of the -- >> we are going to start winning again. we don't win anymore as a country. we don't win on trade.
we don't win with the military. we can't beat isis. we don't win with anything. we are going to start winning again. and we are going to win so much you are going to be so happy. we are going to make america so great again, maybe greater happen ever before. i love you all. thank you, new hampshire. thank you, thank you, new hampshire. thank you, we are going now to south carolina. we're going to win in south carolina. >> people from south carolina can expect a large aircraft with the trump symbol on the tail. >> that is right. it is -- i mean, there is still stuff to learn tonight, obviously, what happens down that ticket on the republican side is going to be fascinating and for some campaigns it will be determinative tonight. but donald trump winning new hampshire. it seems to me like there are two ways this goes.
1996, pat buchanon won new hampshire. with a combination of populism that sort of defied the structure. and the nativism of a very, very hard right town. and he won in new hampshire. and then he didn't win another single thing the whole time. and bob dole became the nominee. that could happen, that could be what happens with donald trump, or this could be the start of it. and the american republican party will be in line with the national fronts in france and the u.k. independence party in great britain and the other types of hard right european style nativists movements, that before now have been on the fringe. that could be people like pat buchanon, but who are never in the leadership of their party. if donald trump is starting here to become the republican nominee
we're a different type of country in terms of what our major parties stand for. and i think we're a different kind of country in terms of where the mainstream and the fringe finds their media. and it's a big deal tonight that he has won. >> that is why his victory tonight is an international news story. >> it is. and i think a lot of the european press, in particular, i don't want to predict for them. but i think they will see it in the lens of their own native movement, but when you have a big win it can really change your perception of who you are as a nation and who your politics represent. >> you know who have covered a few elections between them? andrea mitchell and chuck todd. >> indeed. >> they're here at the end of a long night. >> speaking about the foreign policy implications, and the economic implications for america. donald trump, bernie sanders, you are the business leaders, seeing the business establishment, mostly republican, and the business
round table, ceos, and you're looking at these results and you can't find a safe fair for yourself, you thought you were in charge. that is what bernie sanders is running against. and donald trump not so much. he may move over to the center in terms of their business proclivi proclivities. but most of those leaders who i have talked to do for the thinoh of donald trump. >> they see things the way they do, if they can trust him -- >> and true, they're not where america is. american capitalism runs in a fashion that now has been rejected by both wings, both parties which have gone to the wing, similarly on the foreign policy, the iran nuclear deal can trump has described as the worst deal negotiated and the lines of negotiation, our policy
towards latin america, central america, towards canada. the walls. just -- it's nativist, and it's anti-muslim, but it has enormous implications for our relations in the middle east and with china. >> the 50,000 feet -- >> i'm not ready to coronate trump just yet, because of the way you described buchanon. but if you add up all the establishment figures, rubio, bush, john kasich, he would be at 46% tonight. so that would be a winning number tonight. i think what we're staring at here is, look, cruz wins iowa, he established himself as the religious conservative. sort of the movement conservative. however you want to describe it. the true blue tea party, plus evangelical. that is worth a third plus of the party. donald trump is carving out this populist wing of the party that i think he has done different
than buchanon, buchanon sort of found it here but he has grown it. that is serving as about a third of the party. we're going to look -- we still have to figure out who will be from the governing wing of the party. the new hampshire, they want the governing wing, a person with political experience, that is what south carolina will serve at. and when we have our candidate, i think we have a real shot at a three-way race for a long time. and by the way, that means we may go to cleveland. and the party may -- >> it happens very fast. >> it does happen fast. and you can see march still being a muddled mess between three candidates. you can't count out rubio or bush, we'll see what john kasich does. i don't know if john kasich is ready for what is coming in south carolina. he has gotten to avoid this. this is where i'm skeptical. i don't know if he is ready for
the tough politics. >> he makes sense there, but he has been surpassing expectations. speaking in terms of what happens next and the length of the race to come, one of the more interesting things, what happens between bernie sanders and hillary clinton, explains the size of the margin right now, where he is winning. >> i think there is potential implications for what comes after. i want to look at the math and show you what bernie sanders has done. obviously, sanders, pretty much all green right now. we look at the start of the night and back at 2008. hillary clinton versus barack obama, how much on the performance of sanders, and where will he improve it? he is just cleaning up in this part of the state here. this is obama's best part of the state. bordering vermont. this is the most liberal part of the state. but the biggest gain that bernie sanders has made tonight on the map from where barack obama did
against hillary clinton are coming in areas that are very blue collar. up here, i'll circle this. the city of berwyn, new hampshire, this was huge for hillary clinton in 2008. she won 50% of the vote. remember, this was basically a three-way race in 28. she won 50%, barack obama came in third. bernie sanders has won double digits. this was the back bone of clinton's victory for 2008. working class voters, places along the sea coast, they have flipped to sanders. these are places that hillary clinton won big in 2008. what this looks like demographically is this. voters who make under $50,000, bernie sanders won them by three points. that is a flip from what we saw with barack obama in 2008. barack obama won the upper income voters in new hampshire in 28 and lost big among lower income voters.
also this, the non-college divide. again, bernie sanders doing much better with voters who do not have a college degree than voters who do have a college degree. again, that is an inversion from what we saw in 2008. barack obama did better. the implications are long-term. when you think about the democratic fight, hillary clinton winning pennsylvania, ohio, appalachian territory. the back bone of that for clinton are the types of voters that bernie sanders made the most inroads here in new hampshire. >> steve kornacki, thank you, another member of our family watching tonight who has been reacting in realtime. the news, the returns, the speeches we've seen. chris matthews also here in the election headquarters, chris? >> you know, brian and rachel, i think something that really happened tonight is that we can stop thinking in terms of the self-destruction of the two frontrunners. to somehow there was an assumption that bernie sanders
would go too far with his promises, too far left. well, i don't see that happening. i see him growing in support in political ability and reach. he is reaching well into the democratic center right now. and occasionally over to the center right. i look at donald trump. he was going to self-destruct. well, here he didn't do it. i think we have to start assuming something deeper than self-destruction, you look at hillary clinton, she has to get her act together and come up with a reason why she is running. she doesn't have the most basic motive establishment. she is sort of like ted kennedy in 80, please tell me why you're running for president. i don't hear the answer. if he ends up running -- well, he is probably going to end up with a situation before iowa. where what is going to happen is people are not going to attack him anymore. cruz is going to go after rubio
and rubio after cruz, those are the two vying for the third position against trump. he may find them fighting for the number two spot. trump could continue on, an object continues in the direction it's going unless it's operated on by some outside force. what outside force will stop trump or sanders unless it's another candidate who is better than them in politics. both of them are candidates, somebody has to beat these two guys. i think that is what happened tonight. >> you think of the nomenclature of this business we're following tonight. when we come back we'll listen to some of tonight's winners.
right when the polls closed at 8:00 p.m. tonight, nbc was able to predict the winner of the democratic race, bernie sanders. right now 74% of the vote is in. so slightly less than 3/4 of the vote in. this could change with the remaining 26% of the vote coming in. look at that margin. right now, with 74% of the vote in that is a 21-point margin for bernie sanders. and yes, there were some polls coming in to today that suggested he would win by that much. but not all of them. tracking polls suggested that hillary clinton was maybe closing the gap. that is an enormous, enormous gap between the winner and the loser in new hampshire tonight on the democratic side. let's go for a second back to bernie sanders' victory speech tonight. >> thank you, new hampshire.
together we have sent a message that will echo from wall street to washington, from maine to california of the -- and that is that the government of our great country belongs to all of the people. and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their super pacs. nine months ago, we began our campaign here in new hampshire. we had no campaign organization. we had no money. and we were taking on the most
powerful political organization in the united states of america. and tonight, with away appears to be a record-breaking voter turnout, because of a huge voter turnout. and i say huge. we won. because we harnessed the energy and the excitement that the democratic party will need to succeed in november. >> bernie sanders in a long and
confident victory speech tonight in new hampshire. he was preceded in that speech, basically immediately by the woman who he beat tonight. by secretary clinton. she gave a shorter speech that was also very, very fired up. as soon as she was done, bernie sanders took the stage. they did that the way -- sort of in etiquette terms, you're supposed to do that. she congratulated him and gave a very enthusiastic speech. let's listen. >> i know i have some work to do particularly with young people, but i will repeat what i said this week. even if they are not supporting me now, i support them. because i know -- i know, i've had a blessed life. but i also know what it's like to stumble and fall. and so many people across america know that feeling.
and we have learned also not whether you get knocked down that matters, it's whether you get back up. so my friends, please, join me in building on the progress we made under president obama. pu pushing forward every single day for as long as it takes to break down those barriers that hold us back. we've got to believe in the basic proposition of our country when all americans have the chance to succeed. when each of us has the opportunity to live up to our own god-given potential. then and only then can america live up to its potential, as well. >> former secretary of state hillary clinton giving her concession speech. let's bring in chris hayes and gene robinson. hillary clinton winning the
victory. it if the margin holds tonight, if this holds that would be the largest margin of victory in any modern era, democratic competitive primary. right now it's over a 20-point margin. i think the previous record in the modern era is something like that 16 points. >> for weeks, i have been thinking if i got the assignment to walk into the clinton campaign and write a briefing memo of where this campaign needs to go, there are two plausible arguments, basically, don't panic, stay the course. you should not get jumpy. the other is, this is evidence of there is a problem in this campaign that you are losing to bernie sanders. and i think after tonight the margins, i think the one thing you can say is this, when you fill in the blank, bernie sanders is running to be president, too, you can restore democratic, rebuild the middle
class. hillary clinton is running for president to and fill in the blank is, do a really good job. >> because i know what it takes and i can handle it and you can trust me to do a good job at it. >> earnestly felt, but that is not a message, i am running for president, doing a really good job is not a campaign message and i think that is a really big problem there. >> steve kornacki's numbers he spoke about, should be a concern. i'll mention a couple of them. young people going for bernie sanders, 85% or something like that. that is just -- outrageous. i mean, she cannot -- >> and that margin didn't get better for her in new hampshire. >> and in new hampshire -- you can't stay on that. so she has to improve on that.
and the other is, the fast na fascinating numbers that showed the essentially working class white democrats, near salvation in 2008, they seem to have forsaken her. seemed to have gone with bernie sanders. >> when you sort of try to extrapolate out to what her weakness is in this context means, further out once you get the nomination -- there is not a lot to extrapolate. the problem is -- >> how are you, nice to see you? >> going to the south, bernie sanders can prove he can seriously, genuinely and sort of fully make inroads to the democratic base, he has yet to do that. >> the one internal number that probably does comfort the clinton camp, is that if this were a race just among
democratic voters, just among people who identify with the democratic party and say they identify with the voters, it was a tight race. >> even that is somewhat remarkable. and let me say -- >> better than losing by the margins she is losing by. >> one thing that has been undersold in the narrative of this race, there is a certain part of our politics that likes to see her brought low. that is a real thing that exists. there is this line about, the 74-year-old socialist beat hillary clinton. hillary clinton has run the best campaign in this race. it has been every particular, the best, most disciplined well run message and honed campaign to they have run. do not estimate the quality of what they have executed. >> if you can believe their
messa messages since the fundraising came in, they will be the most spectacularly funded campaign as well. and i want to bring in the donald trump side, called as soon as bernie sanders was, john kasich, a huge headline tomorrow. this guy will be known all over the united states. >> i am going to be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. remember that. don't believe those phoney numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5% unemployment. the numbers are probably 28, 29, as high as 35, in fact, i even heard recently 42%, do you think we would have gathers like this? if we had 5% unemployment do you really think we would have these gathers? >> there is something that is
going on. that i'm not sure that anybody can quite understand. there is magic in the air with this campaign. because we don't see it as just another campaign. we see this as an opportunity for all of us, and i mean all of us to be involved in something that is bigger than our own lives. to change america, to reshine america. to restore the expert spirit ofa and to leave no one behind. am i right? that is what we're all fighting fo for. >> john kasich campaign signalled yesterday that they thought they were going to do well tonight. when they said that they were having a large event in the state of south carolina and also in the state of nevada. gene, being from south carolina,
does john kasich have the kind of campaign and the personality that can win in a republican primary? >> well, since the last republican primary in south carolina we don't know. should newt gingrich, baby. >> newt gingrich, no, before that, south carolina had a steady and reliable record of choosing the eventual nominee. and it shows mainstream presidents, it likes candidates who are for a strong military. means a lot for the state economically. but it's just sort of a rock rib down the line republican state until four years ago. and what happened then -- >> and a place for nastiness, it has a reputation for being a fire and brimstone leave the
trail of dead behind you. >> well, you know, it is lee atwater state as well as mine. things can get tough in south carolina. politics there was almost futile in the sense there were bosses and they paid tribute. that sort of thing. it was the throwback state. there was real sort of anger and anti-establishment feelings four years ago. i can't believe that has gone away. i think it is probably stronger now. the other thing about south carolina of course, is that it has changed over the years because so many transplants from the north have come down. so the whole coastal region of south carolina is really politically an animal that i don't think anybody has quite figured out. my guess is it is fair territory for donald trump. >> when we come back, we'll talk with our reporters out in the field today. but tonight, they're right here.
dad, family meeting. >> it's like the brady bunch for all sisters. this is what the boys on the bus looked like this year. it was deliberate, but it's really, really great. >> thanks for asking for a man to attend. and we'll begin with katy tur. you got to cover donald trump's victory party tonight. it's kind of slowly still sinking in. as i said earlier it's one thing to talk about trump's chance to win in new hampshire, but it's another thing to talk about the victor in the new hampshire primary. >> and it's amazing, he likes to call it the trip down the world's most famous escalator, when everybody discounted him, saying he was a clown and this was a rodeo show and that he would quickly fall away, the times we in the media predicted
donald trump's downfall. >> and the specific, latest outrageous thing would cause him to fall. >> i mean, he said things that nobody else would be able to say, including last night, using the p-word, which we didn't even think we had to have an adjective for -- >> and barnyard term. he said things about john kerry that i wouldn't even repeat. calling others losers, brags that he could shoot someone -- there are so many things that it is hard to recall them at once. but now we see him as truly the frontrunner for the gop race. we have been calling him that in the polling now for several months. he proves that he can turn this enthusiasm for lines of hundreds of thousands of people who have waited in sub-zero degree temperatures. or very hot temperatures to get in and see donald trump speak.
and some speeches generally are the same and we air them live on tv. so it says a lot that people want to go see it in person. just to say they were there. >> casey hunt, you're covering a guy from brooklyn, new york, by way of university of chicago to vermont, to many years in washington. kind of nicely overlooked these days. officially an independent. sits with the democrats in school on capitol hill. is a democratic socialist. and is the victor on the democratic side in the new hampshire primary. >> and not just the victor, but the victor by a margin that is unprecedented. pat devine, the senior strategist, he has been there for both of those, i think that for the sanders campaign, i mean, look, they felt from the beginning like they were onto something in this electorate. and obviously, we've all seen it
this whole election. but they have been surprised by the fervor of their support. if you remember back when he first announced he was running for president. it took ten minutes. i would have to look at the final amount of time he spoke tonight but my guess is that it was his final time. but he started by saying quick, we need to get back to the capital and do more work. he said people treated me like a fringe candidate. and the reality is, it's pretty clear the democratic party, the clintons really missed something. the energy, when i first got to iowa with him and started to cover some of the events, i wanted to look around and say are my instincts right? there is something going on here, it was right, the support in new hampshire, we'll see how deep and broad it turns out to be. he obviously has challenges, has to expand his appeal with latinos and african-americans. there is something real that
goes beyond where we all assumed that it would. >> and the first thought we had that bernie sanders was onto something was the giant rallies. we said the democratic race would be a snooze-fest, and obviously hillary clinton will win, and bernie sanders is the only competition, come on. he is turning in numbers that are not only bigger than what secretary clinton is turning in, he is turning in numbers bigger than anybody on the republican field. and there is this bias from us in new york or washington looking out in the field and saying oh, big rally numbers don't mean anything. they don't have any absolute value political meaning. i mean, how do you know when you're at something that it means something bigger than just that venue, than just that moment. >> i think we knew when we saw him in portland, oregon and boulder, colorado, we saw the enormous college crowd. and minneapolis, which is by the
way, where minnesota democrats who are loyal to hillary clinton tell me that if it were today he would win the minnesota caucus. he is so far ahead in that party. the bernie sanders phenomenon is deeper and broader than i think any conventional wisdom you know -- >> it's not just necessarily the crowd ties. it's also the crowd energy. you go to something like that a ted cruz rally. these people that are showing up, they are true believers. they're not necessarily showing up in the thousands, right? it's 700, 1200, but they deeply believe in the cause cruz is pushing and his messaging, that counts for something. you can see him feeding off his energy. his message has been incredibly consistent from the day he got into this race until tonight. he believes he is coalescing this conservative grass roots campaign. this campaign is pointing to what they did in iowa, proof of that.
and showing what he did in new hampshire, a state where he was never expected to do anything. >> but you're not seeing people show up at a ted cruz rally -- that is not happening. >> and i think the challenge is for secretary clinton, when you see those crowd sizes awwhat to make of it. and her campaign is trying to dismiss the crowd sizes, i think tonight is the first time to the clinton campaign had to take a hard look at itself. they were hoping to keep the victory of bernie sanders to ten points. it was so much bigger than that. i just talked to a source. they are taking a hard look at her message. i'm told it's going to be much more specific and focused. she will talk more about wall street and also you will probably hear her hit him on his health care, by the fact that it would increase taxes. >> she is moving left, it was in her speech tonight. but there is that videotape thing out there.
we are back with our round table of experienced correspondents who are never in the same place at the same time so we're taking advantage of that. quick program, chris matthews just announced on a special edition of "hardball" this evening first airing midnight, eastern time, live interview with the victor, the republican side donald trump. chris jansing had had an equal role tonight of poll watcher, in effect. you got to cover democracy at work and then you went over to the bush campaign headquarters, where they're actually having a
good night. >> well, they -- honestly, the way he put it to me when i talked to him, i think there is an element of truth to it. anything above dead would be considered -- so that is considered a victory. having said that, he said they have been writing my obituary, so anything above dead is good. >> i think donald trump was personally ready. >> with a low energy person -- when he came out tonight there was an energy that we have not seen from him for a long time. we see it creeping up. the last three months, he says, maybe an exaggeration, but he is starting to feel like more himself. i started covering him before he announced and took his trip to europe. the question was, how does he separate himself from the bushes. one of the things they will write about and teach about when they do classes going forward 20 years from now is going to be
how he has for better or worse, stayed true to himself. and i think that what has happened as a result of that is that people are starting to appreciate a certain level of authenticity, which he has, cna way -- which, in a way, is what they like. >> that is what young voters say, why they like bernie sanders, and they can feel, is he like a marco rubio or a politician to them? >> you know how on television they say they can tell when you're faking it, when you're in a place like iowa and new hampshire where they look you in the eye and ask you a question, and i met people over the weekend who were at five different events, they get a sense of you. >> they do. >> of who is real.
so all the campaign staffers who you talk to, who is freaking out the most tonight? >> rubio's people are. >> rubio the candidate is? >> i think he has had a very rough 72 hours. this has probably been the worst two days of his campaign, from the saturday night debate and until now. this is not the position they wanted to be in. they wanted to beat the other governors in this race. >> and -- out of iowa -- >> i would say bill clinton is freaking out the most. >> he didn't take questions tonight. >> why him more than her? >> watching him watch her these last few days when they have been campaigning together, because previously he was on his own as a surrogate, watching his face he could not mask the recognition that oh, my god, this is happening again, she is going to lose.
>> it's not us projecting that onto him -- >> i don't think so, something fascinating happened on sunday, which is that he had two events. at the first event, he gave what was a fairly typical speech. he defended secretary clinton's record. and defended her on benghazi and the e-mails. but then that night, that is when he turned into the attack dog mode. it was not clear where it came from of the one campaign official said it was sort of his decision. we were not stopping him. >> a very small traveling press corps -- >> they didn't -- >> wonder what hillary clinton would be like if you threw away her notes and her polling and threw away her organization. >> and let her be herself much in the same way that donald trump has been. >> had nothing behind them. traveling around the world, a completely different person. >> and if she were to do to, i
get the sense from talking to people on the democratic and republican side, they don't trust her. >> she was the most engaging person with a group of reporters just sitting and shooting the breeze. and if she didn't have to run for anything. >> i think she was in a comfort zone of i'm talking about substance with a press corps that only cares about nerdy stuff. and this deal and the trade agreement. and it was -- it was the kind of thing she really liked. how does she translate that? >> that has been the problem. >> and hillary clinton knocking on her blackberry in the back of her air force carrier. there was a time when she was secretary of state she was cool among the younger generation. and then when she was campaigning again, she completely lost it. >> and the blackberry is not the image you want. >> after she was secretary of state and writing a book and
before she declared for president, and i think in the debate when she said she really had not made that decision, that was really not authentic. she gave paid speeches. and at the time i said what is she doing this for? if she ever wants to run for office why is she giving paid speeches? she doesn't need the money. it was well, you write a book, you give paid speeches, that is what all the other secretary of states do. for somebody who wanted a political life, that was such a mistake. >> and running the bernie sanders campaign, he ran the dukakis campaign, and then, do you have a sense to they're thinking they have a winning plan or was this all they were planning on getting. >> it is funny, first of all he feels like there is a stronger message that is resonating
somehow, particularly with john kerry, he wouldn't come out and say at that ti say. obviously there are challenges with the latino and african-american voters. what they're trying to do is build a different coalition than obama built when he ran against her in 2008, by supporting people that supported her over obama. so particularly, that applies to blue collar, and working class people in particular did not support obama. and if he can do that, make more inroads with latinos, they feel like -- >> and part of that strategy, based on my conversation, is knocking her off of her momentum, which is what happened tonight. and they could make that argument -- >> she doesn't have a chance to win for over a week -- >> international symbol for time as in we've just run out. you have just witnessed the very best team in the business. the very best at what they do.
>> i guess it was not as unexpected as it could have been because the leaders in the polls heading into tonight's voting ended up winning, but it still feels stunning that bernie sanders has won on the democratic side and donald trump has won on the republican side. new hampshire has a way of changing things, i think we'll see absolute chaos in south carolina, and i think we'll see a very happy john kasich because a lot of people are trying to figure him out. >> and it will be a while before we know the republican story, what is night for most of us quickly becomes the next day in politics. special edition of "hardball" with chris matthews. thank you for this hour.
welcome to a special edition of "hardball." by the way, there's our great license plate from new hampshire. place for politics. live free or die. we here in manchester, new hampshire, for a special edition of "hardball." donald trump silenced critics today who questioned whether his months long lead into the polls would translate into actual electoral success. he won with a double digit lead over his nearest competitor, john kasich. led among men, among women, among young people and older voters. people with every single income level and voters who call themselves very conservative.
voters who call themselves moderates. donald trump joins us now by phone. mr. trump, what do you like better? let's say caucuses or primaries, what do you prefer? >> well, i loved what we did this week and i think the caucus system is a difficult system, but i just don't think it's as accurate. it's something nice, chris, when you can walk in, pull a lever or do whatever you have to do and vote and leave. so i think it's a much more accurate system. and i think it's a much better system, actually. >> i have been arguing all night that both you and bernie sanders have one thing in common -- you're not going to self-destruct. someone has to beat you. you're not going to beat yourself. who do you think or what do you say -- when you look between here and cleveland at the convention, what's between you and getting the nomination right now? >> well, i think i have a chance to do very well in south carolina. i'll be going there tomorrow. we have a tremendous speech t t that -- i mean, the crowd is going to be enormous tomorrow in south carolina. you know i have been doing very well there.
we have attracted a lot of people, you know, very big audiences. i look forward doing well there, chris. i think it's going to be very special just like new hampshire was. >> let me ask you about the military because we all know south carolina is a military state. what are you going to do about -- have you thought through how you'll rebuild the american military to make it number one again? >> well, i have. and i think one of the reasons i won and did so well with the vets up in new hampshire was because of the fact -- i mean, i have a great relationship with the military. a great relationship to the vets and we'll redo it. i mean, our military is depleted. we're somewhat scoffed at. i mean, we shouldn't be but we are. and we're going to build it up and make it very, very strong. we're at a point where i remember when not so long ago when general oriano, he said it's in terms of preparedness, one of the worst we have been in in many years. our military is not a good state of preparedness.
i was amazed to hear that. but when you think of it, we shouldn't be too surprised so we're going to build it up and make it very, very strong. hopefully, we're not going to have to use it, chris. but we're going to be strong, nevertheless. >> are you going to increase the force levels, increase the size of the navy? any elements -- you're going to be commander in chief. what do you want more than we don't have now? >> well, we'll be talking to the a admirals and generals and find out what they need. i know they order equipment that they don't want and it's politically expedient. people that i'm running against and will be running against perhaps, they do campaign contributions and in the buying of equipment they don't want and stuff they do want they're not able to buy because it's not political. it's like the drug business, we buy things and we don't
negotiate price. i'm self-funding so nobody is telling me what we should and shouldn't buy. but i know for a fact we're buying things that in many ca s cases -- not in all cases, they don't want. they want other alternatives. >> now that you're on top, are you going to continue with the series of debates that have been planned? will you go to the cbs, will you go to the rest of the fox, all the debates that have been scheduled? >> yes. i actually like the debates. somehow, i guess -- i think you would agree, but i have done well with the debates. the one debate i missed with fox i missed it because they did something that wasn't very nice, but we're totally patched up, that's fine now. but they did something which wasn't appropriate. i wouldn't have missed what i did. i raised $6 million, now it's up up to $7 million for the vets that night. that's sort of what i'm telling you about my relationship with the vets. and the military. so it was a great night. but i did miss that one debate. the last debate, i think i did very well on it. one thing you know, chris, if you don't do well, you start
going down and you go down pretty rapidly. you've got a pretty good glimpse of that. >> is that what happened -- >> say it again, chris. >> is that what croaked rubio? he went way down in the polls? >> i guess so. i like him, but he took a beating. it was a tough debate. i think the press was pretty tough. but maybe they were right in being tough. but it strictly did not help him. he came in a little bit lower, maybe a lot lower than people thought he would. i mean, the ultimate poll is the one we just had. and -- >> sure was. >> he was lower than a lot of people thought he had. had he not been in that debate or had he not had the misfire if you want to call it that, i certainly -- certainly he would have been a lot higher than he ended up. >> okay. i have to pronounce something you may not like, i now pronounce you, sir, a politician. but the good part is you're a winning politician. oh, no, you're in the business now. you're inside the game. thank you for calling me so late
tonight. congratulations really on a personal level. >> thank you. thank you very much. i greatly appreciate it. great honor. thank you. let me bring in the all-star panel. we're up in manchester, chuck todd is here. prize winning columnist, eugene robinson and republican strategist steve schmidt who was senior adviser to the great john mccain campaign. i have to start with chuck here. it looks to me like -- i have been arguing newton's law -- emotion. you have to stop these guys. you have to stop bernie, you have to stop trump. they're not just going to die. that's been an illusion i think of the critics on the left, oh, trump is going to die, he's a clown, and this guy ask is a socialist, an old fogey, but they're doing well. >> they are. the clinton campaign, number one, they need a message, an elevator pitch. i can go up in ten seconds and tell you what bernie sanders' message is.
i can't do it with hillary clinton. i tried it with her surrogates today. >> is this the ted kennedy question -- why do you want to be president? >> i think she hasn't figured it out yet. yes, they have to take it to sanders. that comes with some risk going after sanders. on the republican side, who's going to take trump on? somebody has to. i think the most fascinating thing to watch in the next ten days is figuring out who goes after who. >> yeah, well, let me get something by you. >> somebody has to. >> let's take it back before iowa. won't cruz and rubio have to fight it out now personally? >> look, i think you have jeb who needs to go after trump. i think jeb and trump share more potential voters in south carolina than anybody else. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> it's the veterans, the coastal -- the coastal moderates there in south carolina. yes, i do think that's a cruz and rubio, they may be going after everyone other a little bit. that's true. look, kasich is the wild card here. he gets a bump out of here.
i don't know where he quite goes. >> does he get a bump in south carolina? >> he gets a bump financially. i don't know if he gets a bump in south carolina but he's got to -- >> i know a guy from south carolina. here he is. you're a south carolinian democrat. i think you know the democratic and the republican party. i was talking about military stuff because i assume by the time we get there it will be about the military. >> south carolina has a lot of military installations. making the military strong again or stronger is not just the philosophical thing for south carolinians but an economic thing. >> jobs. >> so there's a lot of talk about that. you know, in south carolina, a natural state for john kasich, i'm not sure it is. remember that before 2012, south carolina had a quite good record of choosing the eventual nominee, right? pretty mainstream -- >> through some really rotten campaigning. those were nasty. >> i think that's what's coming.
i think this is going to be ten days of nasty. we have been using this -- >> by the way it is ten days. >> a quentin tarantino movie -- everybody is going to be shooting at everybody. >> do you know the targets? >> no. >> last time it was john mccain's wife is a druggie. his -- >> i don't know if it gets that personal. but i think it's going to be rough. >> it will probably -- >> how rough will it get down there? >> very rough. look, meanness is a virtue in south carolina. this is a state that's got a unique political culture. out of all the -- this is a rough and tumble state. this is going to be -- >> campbell and that family down there. >> absolutely. we remembered how much john mccain went down. i was hanging out with our boss here. we would hang out with lindsey graham because we're covering down there. holding the town meetings and we got pretty familiar with the mud being thrown. the dirt balls being thrown at john mccain and his family and everything.
all nonsense. >> at the end of the day though this is a tough business. south carolina is probably the toughest state -- >> you like this stuff? are you defend it? >> i think it's part of the process. i think that -- >> part of the process to have your kids -- >> no, no. there is virtue, stress testing the people who wish to be the most powerful person in the world. >> i agree. 100%. >> to command the most lethal military. >> do the people of south carolina see through the crap storm? do they see the truth or the stuff flying in the air? >> i think you look at this race. donald trump inside of a republican primary over the course of this year, he has a compelling message. it's simple in its eloquence. make america great again. he's tapped a vein amongst republican voters in this country. >> i know. >> he's appealing to them, to the sense of loss they feel, to the economic anxiety they feel. and we have had all of these predictions and now you're seeing it play out in the democratic primary. there's an expiration date. that one day, somehow, some way,
they'll self-destruct. >> you believe that still? >> i never believed that. you're exactly right. someone will have to engage and try to beat the candidates but so long as you have an unsettled establishment field, ted cruz is the conservative in the race, donald trump is the insurgent. but dividing the vote, it bodes very well for donald trump. >> some of my progressive people i talk to on the air, you know them, were happy in saying, oh, once it's one-on-one, trump loses. not so clearly. if he's up against cruz, like bush's voters and christie's voters and kasich's voters are not going to ted cruz. they could just as likely or more likely go to trump. i don't buy him against anybody. everybody is against him. >> i would not count donald trump out. because the difference between donald trump and we were talking about this earlier and let's say
pat buchanan's victory in new hampshire in 1996 is that donald trump has been the leader of the polls for nine months, at least. >> yeah. >> you know -- >> had nothing. >> had nothing. >> he was a talk show host. >> he had no money. in new hampshire. even after he won it. >> donald trump can sustain from now unto the convention. >> he got blown away -- >> but still hasn't had income. he hasn't had a sustained -- i want to see what happens when -- >> that's -- >> hang on. when the jeb bush mauling machine, that has been pretty destructive to rubio, i want to see what happens when they dump $20 million on trump somewhere. >> when? >> let's see. that's been the question. >> why haven't they done it? is it risky, are they afraid of him? >> i --
>> because i hear christie ain't quitting until he gets rid of rubio. let's watch him now and see how he let down the voters on saturday night. here's rubio. >> i can tell you i know many people are disappointed. i'm disappointed with tonight. i want you to understand -- but i want you to understand something. i want you to understand something. our disappointment tonight is not on you. it's on me. it's on me. i did not -- i did not do well on saturday night, so listen to this. that will never happen again. [ cheers and applause ] >> his problem was he flubbed saturday night. he repeated himself five times and a strange version of i don't know what. do you think he's out? >> no. i don't. >> i think this was very damaging to him because, you know, the classic washington definition of a gaffe, you know?
you accidentally say the truth. this confirmed the rap on marco rubio. >> marco -- >> he's not ready, robotic. preprogrammed. and tah-dah, you know? >> i know. is he dead? >> yeah, i think it's over. look, at the end of the day, marco rubio had his moment. he emerged as a candidate who could have been the nominee. he was on track to potentially come in second, maybe even win new hampshire. he goes into the debate, his supporters couldn't name a single qualification. tell me the state that marco rubio wins next? if he wins the nevada caucuses and he's organized out there and he has a chance, he rehabilitates himself. he doesn't win in nevada he has big problems. >> did you walk around up here? there are a lot of voter, the old phrase of the elitists is low information voters. they don't watch the debates, they just sort of like -- he's cute, he's well-spoken, he's young. they look at the visual attributes and say, i like him better than the others because
he doesn't yell as much. he's still to a lot of people and to the neocon people behind him. he's got a lot going for him. >> he's got some money and the attractive qualities but the saturday night debate was destructive to him. >> definitional. >> look, i think he's got a lot of pressure on him on saturday. he has an opportunity. i don't think you can totally say he's out because he does have some resources. he's got more cash -- >> what's got a better chance of surviving, he or jeb? >> jeb. >> that's tough. >> i don't know, man. jeb has high unfavorables among republicans. i sit here, rubio has more room to recover. i hear what steve is saying. it's one of the things that maybe it can't -- maybe it's a virus that can't be cured. but he still -- you still have a higher favorable rating there. jeb has some hard negatives. >> around the room, if you're on the plane tonight just landing in new york with donald trump and his people, who are you afraid of between here and
cleveland convention? who's your biggest fear? person. >> i think a rehabilitated jeb and cruz. >> really? >> in a funny way, it's jeb. in a funny way it's jeb. jeb could do fairly well in south carolina. and -- >> amazing. >> he's a substantial guy. you might figure if you're trump rubio is -- >> fascinating. >> he could be on -- >> i never would have thought of him. do you think jeb? int >> no, it ease ted cruz. trump can't get in an ideological fight with cruz like hillary clinton is with bernie sanders. donald trump could win this, he is on track to get the nomination. >> that argument is -- >> i think there's three lanes here. >> then we'll see. >> ted cruz. >> huh? >> i think cruz. >> i think cruz is tough because he's got the hard, right wing rail. but i think that everybody else
is out of the race, they may go to -- these personal relations are hard to read. do they like trump or not? the moderates. >> the moderates? >> kasich, kasich hates trump enough not to go with him, or go with cruz, the same with bush and christie? christie wants to get rid of rubio. >> i think christie done. he's not going to qualify for that debate. >> really? >> that's his oxygen. >> we're going to miss him. >> yeah, i think a lot of people will miss him. i think jeb bush -- >> the hillary clinton plane, going to new york tonight. >> well, if i were you, i'd make everybody get off the plane and get new people. >> what's your plan? >> we'll get to that. she has to beat sanders. he looks really good right now. thank you very much. isn't tomorrow sunday morning again? the other big winner, bernie
>> well, welcome back to manchester, new hampshire. that was bernie sanders speaking tonight after his resounding, i mean resounding victory over hillary clinton up here in the live free or die state with more than 80% of the vote in now. catch this, sanders won by more than 20%. that's more than double digit -- double double digits. seem joined by chris hayes, the host of all "all in." and joy reed. and washington bureau chief, david cork -- you're the oldest guy besides me. howard fineman is so right. bernie sanders' approach is brilliant. he reads notes. no teleprompter. nothing fancy. he's like a college professor who's 28 years old. assistant professor, doing a teach-in. he's got all the interesting statistics. he brings them out and each paragraph or thought has one great statistic. and everybody is like, wow, he's teaching us, we like this guy. it's working. >> you talk to people who have
worked with him or known him for 50 years and they say he hasn't changed. >> from -- >> he's gotten older. he hasn't changed. hoe didn't do -- he didn't do drugs back in the '60's. he wasn't a hippie. he was all about change, so when he talks this way, people realize it's from the gut. like it or not. there's no question about whether he's calculating or trying to present an image to win votes. it's his message and it's something that hillary clinton has not been able -- >> you're right there. i got the feeling tonight that hillary clinton's speech was teleprompted, it had no poetry. it was like a mondale speech. i have something for gays, something for this group, that group. it didn't sound like it had a whole purpose. when bill ran, for people who
work hard and play by the rules. >> don't stop thinking about tomorrow. >> the economy, stupid. centric things he talked about. hillary has no unity of argument. and with bernie it's citizenship and -- >> here's the thing. when bill clinton runs in 1992 he's running not only to inflict generational change on the country but to also a partisan change. you had a republican president who had -- who was in office. he's running against republicans. bernie sanders is essentially a change candidate, change from barack obama, saying that his policies were not liberal enough. an interesting piece in the exit polls where people, 40% said they want obama's policies continued. hillary clinton wins those overwhelmingly. the 40% who say make his policies more liberal, 42% say they want more liberals, sanders is running a change argument. hillary clinton yes, she's the polished candidate, she doesn't have change message because she wants continuity. >> she wants the job. she want the job. i want this position of the presidency. >> she says she can do it competently. >> and part of the issue here s
is -- i think that's two things going on. one is the fact that the deep structural conditions of the country, the inequality, the wages have stagnated through the recovery of the great recession is a fact. when you look at the exit polls, the entrance polls in iowa tonight, him winning voters making less than $50,000 a year. that resonates with people from those who have not seen the great recovery. i can't help but think back to 2004. in the bunker, just in the bunker, they're like who we can run against bush? is there a general around? wesley clark, let's run that guy. there's no i'm in a political revolution. can we find a dude who's wearing a uniform to run against them and now it's the expansive idea we have won two in a row. we can run bernie sanders. >> people want what he's offering, but when he says i'm going to slap a tax on the stock market speculation, what exactly
does that mean? and how much money does that entail? >> that's a totally reasonable policy. >> how much can you raise on the stock market? how do you do it? what do you tax? >> you tax -- >> transactions. >> all transactions? >> yeah. if not -- >> he calls it speculation. >> right. because the point is that, if you're buying and holding you're going to pay essentially nothing on it. the people that will pay a lot on are those who move the money around. >> all the retired people with mutual funds -- >> they're paying very little. >> but they'll pay this. >> talking about taxes they think they'll be on somebody else. you have younger voters and others saying we'll get the wall street guys. i was talking to voters who are undecided between clinton and sanders and the deciding factor is taxes on them and themselves and the question of whether they'd be taxed. if you talk about across the board taxes that don't hit the one percenters but hit them, but you hit the brass tacks.
we have not litigated that part of bernie sanders at all. >> but the thing is that hillary clinton in 2008 won working class blue collar men here in new hampshire. she had an argument the clinton people had for years worked to that crowd. she's totally lost them because she's not connecting on these issues of economic security. >> did she connect tonight? >> i don't know. it sounded like too much of a speech. i think obama kind of raised the bar. people -- >> why did she offer a speech tonight that emphasize anger? >> she's trying to find an emotional connection with the people. she's trying to run as a person most competently. the last person to do this is michael dukakis. >> is she trying to mimic sanders? i think she was trying to do sanders. here she is. >> people have every right to be angry, but they're also hungry. they're hungry for solutions. what are we going to do? [ cheers and applause ]
i will fight to rein in wall street and you know what? i know how to do it. [ cheers and applause ] we have to keep up with every fiber of our being. the argument for the campaign for human rights. human rights as women's rights. human rights as gay rights. human rights as worker rights. human rights as voting rights! human rights across the board for every single american! [ cheers and applause ] now, that -- that is who i am. that is what i have always done. that is why i am in this race. >> you know, tonight would have been a night to quietly talk to people about a loss. and to remind them why you're in politics in a soft way. why she fought the applause, why she had a whole series of things
to fight the applause with just in terms of styles. this isn't workers of the world unite. you just lost an election. talk about that and why you're still in fight. she was imitating bernie. he does it much better. >> look, i think if that's o one -- there's one characteristic you would attribute to hillary clinton her years in public life it's resilience. has there been someone more resilient -- >> bill. bill. >> bill. bill -- i mean hillary clinton has -- she's been through it. time and time again. >> she has. >> tonight i thought that was part of what she was showing. here's the thing. hillary clinton she's not a terrible politician. she's not a jeb bush level disaster. but she is not an incredible natural politician. i mean, this is clear now on the second campaign. she is a remarkably competent, accomplished individual who has the best resume for president ever. ever. >> how would you wait her as a candidate one to ten? >> one to ten? >> candidate.
candidate. >> see -- >> running for office. >> seven. >> seven. she's a seven. >> you think seven? >> i would say -- >> what would you say, david? >> i would say six, but the thing is, she's talking about her resume and how she can do a good job and be competent and practical solutions. bernie is talking about a cause. >> bernie is talking about himself. >> join this cause, join this revolution. those are two very emotionally different pitches and right now the democratic party wants to be part of a crusade and part of a -- i think in part, the expectations came up with obama. these people want the next chapter. >> that's right. >> you have to remember in 2008 when barack obama lost here, he walked out on the stage and he gave people a dream. this dream written in the founding documents. he went big. he talked about sort of the dream of the country. he has that ability to sort of go beyond himself and go beyond the campaign itself. sort of talk about a driving dream. that is not who hillary clinton is. hillary clinton is a resume. she's an incredible --
>> these are not winning arguments i'll tell you. >> a resume for a revolution. >> rising expectations is key. political professors talk about that -- the revolutions don't happen during famine but when people attain something. >> without taking sides this is a tricky one, can you see in your imagination hillary overtaking bernie sanders in terms of appeal to the country, her appeal? and being here for the nominati nomination? >> yes, and the reason is because we're talking about a slice of the electorate, that's more liberal and whiter than the electora electorate. black voters are about winning, pragmatism. >> can you see her winning? >> i can see her winning but i can't see her getting a more enthusiastic -- >> that's what i would say. >> the best moment was 11 hours of benghazi. >> that's a lawyer's job.
>> she was at her best when people saw her for the 11 hours. their challenge is to boil that down to what you see. that's true. >> it's a difference between handling issues and winning with them. >> i'm saying -- >> when she handles issue, she doesn't win with them. this is a hot topic, after midnight. we're in a bar. thank you, chris hayes and joy reed and david corinne. i'm going to talk to three nbc reporters who are at the headquarters with sanders, clinton and bush. the actual people. you're watching a special election night edition of "hardball" live from manchester, new hampshire. >> guy whortion sleeping on mattresses in the cam bane headquarters and they hold up a hot plate where they're eating their food. that's how you win elections. that's how you do it.
tonight the light overcame the darkness of negative campaigning. [ cheers and applause ] and you made it happen. you made it happen. you made it happen. you made it happen. you made it happen. you made it happen. >> welcome back to "hardball." up in new hampshire, the special edition of "hardball" late tonight or early in the morning. evening out in california. anyway, having watched politics forever i love those personal moments when the guy or the woman is caught up in the emotion of victory or defeat.
and it's the rare moments that we get a little honesty. i shouldn't say that, that's too tough. but a personal revolution about the person, what kind of person they are. like the man or the woman who wins the oscar. let's bring in casey hunt and kristen welker and chris jansing. why don't you two reporters compare notes. let's start now, we'll look at what jeb bush said tonight. let's watch jeb bush. >> this campaign is not dead. we're going on to south carolina. we also need someone that can defeat hillary clinton in the fall. [ cheers and applause ] not just hillary clinton, apparently maybe bernie sanders as well. who knows? >> well, what was the name -- i have been down so long -- i mean, he's in fourth or fifth and he's really happy. >> well, he's still fighting for third and the third is the new
first. isn't marco rubio set that standard in iowa? look, this was a campaign that was left for dead. he was right about that, people were writing his obituary. but i'll tell you the energy in the room -- >> go through the numbers. trump 35, kasich leading by a significant four points and then the rest are bunched, cruz, bush, rubio. >> all have an argument to make about south carolina and the reasons they're going to go forward. although rubio is the only one tonight who gave an apology. he told his supporters, you know, what happened on friday night -- or what happened in the debate won't happen again. >> how does he know that? because that wasn't purposeful. not like he did it on purpose. he repeated himself five times because he was apparently shook. >> well, he says he's not go to be shaken yesterday. >> he did it again today. didn't he do it again? >> there's a lot of exhaustion at play there, but there's also -- that is very much if you go to any of his events you will see that he does have these
standard lines as they all do, but -- >> not like that. all right. i think he's the worst in that regard. i think he's very much a robot guy. what do you have your point about happiness, who is your candidate, why is he happy? >> well, i think that -- look, what we heard from marco rubio tonight was sort of stunning. look, i was at the clinton campaign headquarters and i have to tell you, i mean, she tried to spin this loss. it was a bruising defeat tonight. they were hoping they could hold the loss to single digits when they saw that wasn't going to happen, they were hoping it was going to be within ten. it was a lot higher than that. i was watching -- >> why was he so transparently obviously miserable when she was speaking? >> well, look, i think that bill clinton of course has been out on the stump. he's been sticking to a script with the exception of sunday night when we really let loose. >> why is he not happy when his wife is speaking. >> i'm not sure, his wheels are turning in his head what he needs to be doing differently. look, i can tell you, chris, i
have been talking to sources close to the campaign there's a bit of a retool going on when it comes to the messaging. she knows she's got to be sharper. >> why is she running -- does she know why she is rubbnning? >> that's a question for her. >> that's not the message. >> i think it's interesting tonight, very focused on wall street tonight. one of her -- >> she's mimicking bernie. >> i think it's a tough sell. >> don't you think people will notice she's me doing him? >> i think that's the challenge, look, i have been talking about this all along, but she's going after him on the issue of taxes. >> that's great because when he said all the major university, paid for by the government. big increases in social security without taxing the individual -- >> she hasn't been talking about it at all. >> when he says medicare for all for life that's a misstatement. medicare, you work for 50 years,
pay into it and then 10 or 15 years and if you're a woman 20 or 25 years. but that's the model. he's acting like we're going to get it from time we're born. the money is is coming to us. doesn't make sense. >> i think there's a sense among the campaign, possibly bill clinton as well that they wish she had started talking about what you're saying earlier instead of waiting until this is real race as it is now. >> she is only attacking him because he's beating her and not because it's an argument. kasie hunt, who's your candidate? >> i have been with bernie sanders for the -- >> i thought that -- you have it so many times. he does it so differently than most politicians. he doesn't use the teleprompters which are so phony. he reads notes, he looks up and down like a professor. it was something genuine about it. >> it is. that's what's resonating with a lot of the young people. the folder he carries actually has a copy of his speech.
he carries the same -- >> he's like a professor showing up for lectures. >> it's all crumpled. he's spilled water on it. >> like he was been teaching english lit for years. >> his bodyguard carries it for him. i thought he was a policy guy. he's there with the manila folder. there's something here that the clintons completely missed. they're talking in particular about -- and chris, you focus on this a ton over the course of the years but working class, blue collar voters. there are voters who are not with obama in the primary in 2008 and they are with bernie sanders. >> young. >> huge numbers. they went for her, for hillary clinton in 2008. that is what the sanders campaign sees as the key piece of a potential coalition. >> last question. can you tell covering it every day with the candidate why a 55-year-old white guy, i hate talking about this, who's making
40 or 50 a year, why would he turn to bernie rather than trump? can you discern that? >> i think the trump -- people who show up at the trump rallies are saying i might think about bernie too than the people who are at bernie rallies, bernie sanders rallies. much more likely to say i have the core, liberal activist beliefs that are driving me. i think there is fundamentally something going on with people who are working these couple of jobs. they feel excluded from the economy. on the republican side it's hey, i want to be like that guy, trump, i want to make that money. bernie sanders's message is this system is wrong. i think there's resonance on both sides. >> we don't talk about it much, but people who come from europe, first or second generation they bring that democratic socialist agenda with them. their parents talk like that. thank you, kasie hunt. thank you, kristen welker, thank you, chris jansing. a lot of chrises here.
more coming ahead from manchester. this is a special edition of "hardball," live from new hampshire on this really big, historic primary night. something happened tonight. >> we are going to fight for every vote in every state. [ cheers and applause ] we're going to fight for real solutions that make real difference in people's lives. every vote in every state.
now we go on to south carolina. [ cheers and applause ] the palmetto state. and you know, washington liberals may find south carolina far less hospitable environs. [ cheers and applause ] and on to nevada and super tuesday, the so-called s.e.c. primary. >> well, senator cruz before you get to this place you call
nevada think about a place called nevada. because in nevada they might want you to name the state correctly. anyway, donald trump and john kasich were one and two tonight, leaving cruz, rubio and bush piled up in the middle. rubio acknowledged the disappointment, jeb bush said he has reset the race. my god he's -- he's -- >> the pundits had it figured out last monday night when the iowa caucuses were complete. they said that the race was now a three-person race between two freshmen senators and a reality tv star and while the reality tv star is still doing well, it looks like you all have reset the race and for that i'm really grateful. [ cheers and applause ] >> well, now the future of the race dependsen who stays in and who drops out. i'm joined by political analyst and my my friend, howard fineman. he writes everything. he never stops writing and
reporting. jane newton and ellie mays francesco chambers and ben kinsberg who knows far more. howard, what it is about the wasps that they have such confidence in defeat? what makes jeb bush think he had a great night? he's fourth or fifth or what? >> it only cost him $35 million, $35 million, to end, you know, in fourth place. with 11%. however, his point is -- i think it's valid. let's say stock car racing. donald trump is jeff gordon. he's like five laps ahead. you have four guys all trying to crash each other on the track of the race. you have kasich, cruz, bush and rubio and for that role to be the non-donald trump, it's true.
jeb having spent like $55 million in iowa and new hampshire still part of that. i think not a big part of it. i think it's basically rubio and cruz and i would look at cruz as the likely number two going down the road. >> i see cruz in his own lane -- >> in the s.e.c. primary. >> i see him as the conservative. i see trump in the middle and then four on the left. >> i see trump and cruz competing and everybody else competing. bush's people told me last night they're hopeful for south carolina. they think -- >> who's hopeful? >> that bush's campaign -- >> well, they have to be hopeful. what else are they going to be? >> this is amazing to me, that eight years after his presidency ended in like sort of flames that they think that george w. bush can pull out south carolina for his brother. >> okay. >> graham said that the bushes are golden -- >> typical state that w. would help them? >> i went to the university of kansas, so i have a basketball game over here going on.
and in one side of the bracket, you've got trump versus ted cruz. and then the rubio versus bush dynamic going on and john kasich is like your wild card, right? he's like the 16th seed. trying to get in there. >> i'm waiting to hear what sport ginsberg -- >> you know, everything we don't know. so tell us what you know that we don't know. >> this is like going to the fair and you have a horse races and you have to bang on the thing. so you've got three different lanes that you're dealing with. you have a trump lane, clear. you have a cruz lane because he's got evangelicals and the libertarians. then you've got a third lane of all the establishment republicans. by the time you get to a convention, it's a third, a third, a third. nobody's nominated. so that's why the competition for the establishment lane is now -- >> with those three lanes, which two lanes get married and screw
the other lane? >> i think all the delegates become free agents. >> no, they don't. >> after the first ballot, 85% of them are unpledged. >> is that fun? >> who knows? >> i can tell you, chris -- >> a hell of a night in cleveland. >> this is great news for ginsberg because he'll be the convention scorecard guy. >> a great night for american politics. people voted like mad. young people voting, it was a great democratic day. thank you. that's a good thing for you, too. the special edition of "hardball" continues live from new hampshire after this.
it's wednesday, february 10th. right now on "first look," it was a night of political routs for sanders and trump. >> i am going to be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. >> the people of new hampshire have sent a profound message to the political establishment. >> now get ready for even more bruising battles as the political fight turns towards south carolina. america's top intelligence official warns of a litany of doom from isis inside the u.s.