tv On the Record ABC January 24, 2016 11:00am-11:30am EST
ed: good morning, everyone. it' s time to go "on the record." with the countdown to the new hampshire primary, we' re tracking the trends and asking if new hampshire' s first-in-the-nation status is in jeopardy. plus -- ted: with the first votes to be counted, what stands out about the presidential race so far? ed: and the state of the commonwealth -- from the budget to the opioid crisis -- the key issues on governor baker' s agenda in the year ahead. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] ed: good morning. i' m ed harding along with newcenter 5' s political reporter
thank you for joining us on "otr " this morning. our guest is dante scala. he is an associate professor in political science at the university of new hampshire. he' s been tracking the changing political demographics of new hampshire. . it is a current book. -- he has written "the four faces." janet: this is turning out to be an election that will be remembered for its anomalies -- donald trump and bernie sanders. do you think this is the start of a new trend in politics that' s here to stay? mr. scala: certainly donald trump has put his finger on american politics -- where politics and entertainment intersect. you have 20 million people watching the debate. that has a big effect on how the nomination process will turn out.
than it used to be. the primary is different -- it is no longer taking place in living rooms in iowa and new hampshire because a republican in oklahoma can watch the candidates on her tv and judge for herself. janet: have we opened the door where this entertainment and political intersection is what we will see in the future? mr. scala: i think that will be trump' politics, but what he has done. including myself. ed: at this point, the success is not measured. people might be entertained. will they go to the voting booth -- will they caucus for him? mr. scala: that is the last question for trump skeptics like myself who never thought he would get to where he was or
will these supporters that come to the rallies vote in the caucuses in iowa? if they vote out there -- it is easier to cast a vote in a new hampshire primary than an iowa caucus. janet: barack obama was not an entertaining -- entertainer, a celebrity, but had a riveting personality. was he a premonition of what americans were looking for in a candidate eight years ago? mr. scala: obama has a different personality than donald trump, american politics -- whether it is barack obama, donald trump, or bernie sanders -- it seems americans, again, and again, want to hit the reset button. is what you see with sanders and clinton. a lot of democrats say we like obama, but it was not the hope -- change that we hoped for.
liked the barack obama democrat, he left me. ed: you talked about how the gop usually goes with the establishment, but the book was written in the fall. things have changed. as we have been talking about. the question is -- did you see donald trump -- back then, 90, 120 days ago, versus the donald trump you see now? mr. scala: no, insistently underestimating donald trump has been a hallmark for me for the last year. ed: you are not alone there. mr. scala: he has gotten an enormous amount of media attention he had to pay nothing for and that is a unique characteristic of presidential candidates. he clearly has a message that is resonating with a group of voters that is important for republicans -- that is white, blue-collar voters. they are the ones that feel they have been left behind by the great recession, and then the economic recovery. trump' s message is not
message -- much more of a populist message, a nationalist message -- "make america great again" -- we will see how far he gets with that. ed: given what you said, you think he will get the nomination? ed: if he wins-- mr. scala: if he wins iowa, he would be the favorite. janet: what if ted cruz wins in iowa? does it give him any lift in new hampshire, and is there any scenario where he wins the granite state? mr. scala: i do not think he can win the granite state. there are moderates, there are enough very conservative voters in new hampshire where a cruz win could bump him into the top three, and perhaps an iowa loss for donald trump might scramble things because for the first
something. all year it has been "i am a winner, i' m a winner" but if he loses, that could take some steam out of the train. ed: let' s talk about marco rubio and jeb bush -- how long can they stay in. they have the financial resources versus chris christie and john kasich, who have less financial resources. how can survive if they don' t win either iowa or new hampshire? mr. scala: the nightmare for the republican elites is jeb bush will lose, and when he loses, he will take marco rubio down with him. you see ads going after marco rubio. rather than fire directed at trump, the establishment candidates are firing at one another. bush could stay long enough through south carolina to stop rubio from getting what he needs to be in order to become the
janet: and do christie and case it have to --john kasich have to win new hampshire? mr. scala: the path only gets steeper from new hampshire. ed: how large is the field as it worked its way through south carolina -- we understand how large it is now -- but as you get through i weigh in new hampshire -- they will be out of the way. mr. scala: the field itself, half of a dozen candidates could stay in, but no more than three with a viable shot at the nomination. ed: very good. are you ready for the "otr -- pop quiz? mr. scala: i am not sure. ed: you live in new hampshire. you teach in new hampshire and you study new hampshire politics. but how much do you really know about what happens in the granite state? franklin pierce is the only new
president of the united states, and in rindge there' s a university bearing his name. can you name the former white house insider who is the current president of franklin pierce university? mr. scala: that would be andy card. ed: andrew card. question number 2 -- former massachusetts senator and current new hampshire resident scott brown has hosted 10 presidential candidates this year at his "no b.s. barbeques," held either at his house, or in a barn in rye. the final one was tuesday night. who is the candidate that attended? mr. scala: that was ted cruz.
is it two, four, six, or eight? mr. scala: there was john kerry -- i will go with four. ed: it was six. romney, carrie, dukakis, john f. kennedy. question 4 -- new hampshire governor maggie hassan announced clinton last september. in fact, all but one new england governor has already endorsed a presidential candidate. can you name the lone hold-out? in endorsing a presidential governors? mr. scala: i think it would be the opener of rhode island. ed: it is the governor of massachusetts -- charlie baker is not picked anyone. last, most new hampshire voters will likely pay more attention to the patriots today than politics. last september, republican candidate marco rubio released a
predicted the super bowl winner. which team did florida senator marco rubio picked to win the super bowl. ed: --mr. scala: i think he picked the patriots. ed: he takes the dolphins. sen. rubio: my superbowl pick is the same one i've made for 40 years, the miami dolphins. janet: the only questions you missed had to do with we' one. hillary clinton -- what is her she won at the last minute in 2008, and thought she had this election under control. what is she doing wrong? mr. scala: i do not know what she is doing wrong, but sanders is doing something right. he is appealing to new hampshire democrats of all different kinds. he is appealing to upscale, progressive voters who live in college towns like hanover, dartmouth college, but he is also appealing to working class,
a high school education. clinton, i think, is having real problems with two groups in particular -- younger voters, people under 35. everyone' s grandpa from vermont, is doing well with those voters, problems with those blue-collar voters who her husband, and she herself, have done well within previous primaries. democrats. those are the two groups she is having problems with right now. ed: if hillary clinton loses iowa and new hampshire, how long can she survive? obviously, she will move on, but must she win south carolina, nevada, and the majority of super tuesday? mr. scala: if sanders wins both, the question is can he convince minority voters he should be the candidate?
find african-american, hispanic voters. that will be the key test. clinton could last until june. she has to start winning somewhere. south carolina, nevada -- if she cannot win there, everything we thought about sanders ability to those doubters go away and sanders becomes a contender. election. you want to give a prediction on iowa and new hampshire? mr. scala: i think on the republican side, cruz has a viable shot to take down trip. does trump have the organization to bring out the caucus vote, or will it matter -- will he defy gravity like he has all year? on the democratic side, i think clinton has the edge there. and even though sanders has the edge here in new hampshire. ed: you suspect the secretary will win one of the first two, senator sanders will win one of the first two?
it is complete division. >> they seem to know their stuff. >> i saw some interviews bernie sanders did with regular people. i thought that was really cool. >> they all say the same thing except for trump. he is the order when reporting on corruption. >> trump is providing, not -- comedic relief. ted: has he impressed you? >> with his sayings, it is more of a comedy, but he has impressed me. >> not really interested in any of the candidates. ted: what is one word you might use to sum up the presidential race so far? >> unimpressed. >> this is the first presidential race where i really do not know who i would vote for. ed: well, here is the good news. he has plenty of time to make up his mind. time for the "otr" roundtable. this week our analysts are mary anne marsh on the democratic side and republican analyst eric
janet: you heard dante scala -- do you see the possibility a brokered convention for the gop? eric: here is what will happen -- we will have a clear leader nominated on the first ballot, or we will not, and will go to multiple ballots. the last nine conventions we had a presumptive nominee going into the convention. so, history suggests that is what is going to happen again. if there is a free-for-all, i suggest the networks and channel 5 cover all four nights because it will be very excited. [laughter] janet: is he being optimistic? mary anne: there will not be a brokered convention -- an insurrection, maybe, but no brokered convention. [laughter] mary anne: the clock -- contests in february will decide who will be the president on both sides. donald trump wins iowa,, after, he is the nominee, period
ed: everyone sitting at home is saying ask about mitt romney -- is it possible governor romney could still be lured back into the race? eric: most of the deadlines for getting on the ballot have already passed. he is not going to be a candidate. it is highly unlikely that a non-candidate who has amassed zero delegates is going to emerge as a potential nominee in cleveland. mary anne: let me translate for everybody at home. [laughter] mary anne: when eric says he will not be a candidate, it means he will not ever run, but if there is a brokered convention, and mitt romney stands on his dock, looking at the shores of the frozen lake masaki, he will be ready to brought -- be brought into the brokered convention. he will be there in a heartbeat. eric: if there is going to be a candidate that emerges that has not been part of the process to the endpoint in cleveland, it
who ran and suspended the campaign, but still has it could be a special interest group leaders -- leader who controls the both of delegates. ed: could it be paul ryan? mary anne: why romney saying we should raise the minimum wage -- it should be $15. saying we should not raise the wrong signal. what does that sound like? eric: romney is a leader in the party, so he will speak out on issues, but he is not a candidate. i think candidates who have amassed delegates might object someone -- to someone who has zero delegates emerging as the nominee. janet: let' s switch the focus to the democrats. what does clinton have to do after iowa and new hampshire if she fails in both of those states? mary anne: she has to win every single day between new hampshire and nevada. everything.
will be unbearable if she does not, and she will not win nevada, south carolina, and she is in trouble. janet: what about super tuesday -- does she have to win all of those states? mary anne: if she loses the first two, she will have to win every thing. they are trying to win iowa, a slingshot in new hampshire. it can be hard, -- done, but it is hard. janet: what do you see? eric: she will have the organization and the money to go on, but expectations have been so high for her from the beginning, if she loses one of the first two states, it is problematic. if she loses both come it is devastating. they say they have a firewall in south carolina and the seven states that both on super tuesday. if she loses the first two , the firewall crumbles. mary anne: it is scorched. ed: bernie sanders is 27 point ahead of her.
there is a reason unh got fired. it is more of a 15-point race. out of iowa, you get a seven-point bounce. that cuts it in half. she has to cut it on her own campaigning. janet: let' s look at new hampshire. if for the burst -- for the first time, both of the winners, ultimately, of the the primary s say it is trump and sanders -- don' t end up winning the election, does the first in the nation status start to slide into oblivion question -- public and? mary anne: it could. everyone knows trump. they have been well-introduced and the person they see on the ground is the same they know. big difference. janet: is the first in the nation status at stake? eric: no. voters are telling voters in iowa and new hampshire that of
the person who lives here... has to solve problems as big as the world... and as small as your kitchen table. that's the job. everyday. and now, the first lady who helped get healthcare for eight million kids... the senator who helped a city rise again... the secretary of state who stood up for america,
leaders around the world. is the one candidate for president who has everything it takes to do every part of the job she'll never let anyone privatize social security and medicare... or shut down planned parenthood... she'll take on the gun lobby... finally get equal pay for women... and stop the republicans from ripping all our progress away. so on february ninth, stand up for hillary. because if you want a president who knows how to keep america safe... and build a stronger economy... hillary's the choice. fighting for you, and with your support, i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. janet: governor baker has laid out an agenda.
taxes? eric: he is a doer, not an ideologue. janet: is it possible to do this without raising taxes? mary anne: he can if he has -- with him. ed: sarah palin -- does she have any power at all question mark mary anne: --? mary anne: with evangelical voters, yes, she does. eric: we look down our noses, but she has a following, and this comes at a time. janet: best week. mary anne: donald trump. great week for him. mary anne: eric? eric: ohio governor john kasich. he is now number two in the polls and he could emerge as the trump alternative. mary anne: another bad poll. ed: we
have 15 seconds left. you want to talk about the patriots?