tv News Channel 3 News at Noon CBS February 19, 2016 12:00pm-12:30pm EST
charlie: bank robbers are creatures of habit. once they develop a successful routine, they stick to it. time of day, day of the week, choice of weapon, disguise, region-- these will be the same again and again. it's actually a lot like these fish. given enough time, it's possible to discern a distinct pattern that each one will follow. well, mathematicians, they do so love finding these patterns, don't they? tell me, what have you gleaned from thiset of repeated crime phenomena? an equation, for the fbi, that predicts when and where these two particular robbers will strike next. i told my brother, they'd hit today... curtis, you see anything? clear. keith?
charlie: ...at one of two locations... they've hit 16 banks in eight months. the fbi's nicknamed them the charm school boys because th're so nice and polite. they don't use weapons or threats. they say "please" and "thank you." they even open doors for other bank customers on their way in and out. using a combination of probability modeling and statistical analysis, i've pinpointed the next robbery. it's 1:30. if these guys actually show within the time window charlie's predicted, it's kind of amazing. yeah, i know. don: want to hear something wild? when i was in college, i played baseball. charlie could predict the amount of walks i was gonna get just by my stance. charles, i have no doubt in your ability to predict the movements of fish and men, but i would offer one cautionary note,
and what's that? don't mistake the ability to predict with the ability to control. yeah, i think i know the difference. oh, to be young and brilliant and full of yourself. just consider. these charm school guys or boys or whatever, they have no idea what's about to happen to them. but my equation does. i have the targets. positive id? two caucasian males, mid- to late 30s. baseball cap and sunglasses. i'm on my way. let's go. let's go. let's go. team two baker. you got 'em? got 'em. teller number three.
agent down! ( gunfire ) charlie: we all use math every day... every day... to forecast weather... to tell time... to handle money... to handle money... we also use math to analyze crime... analyze crime... reveal patterns... reveal patterns... predict behavior... behavior. using numbers, we can solve the biggest mysteries we know. captioning sponsored by cbs and paramount network television hey, searching for a great used car? i don't want one that's had a big wreck just say, show me cars with no accidents reported find the cars you want, avoid the ones you don't plus you get a free carfax report with every listing
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agent down! i'm gonna go for mnight. you cover me with this, all right? this is a live breaking report from the channel 8 new.. i also have a post-doc who needs help with some references on an article. maybe you can recommend a couple of math students? well, wait. let's clarify. this is the redheaded post-doc? red hair and she rollerblades? yeahyou know. brilliant theoretician. well, forget the undergrads. ll help her. ...injured in the crossfire, where a shootout between federal agents and suspected bank robbers is in progress. i see several people are lying on the ground... ray!
i got two suspects fleeing in a silver sedan, license... officer ( on radio ): ...in progress, eight-year-old female. all available units please respond. uh, this is 1-adam-6. shouldn't we secure the area before we pull out? they're in our system. they're in our communications system. they're making false reports. any available unit, report to... secure the area!
he's over there. hey. hey, charlie, how you doing? it's okay, really. it's fine. they weren't violent. there were two of them. why 16 robberies exactly the same, and then this? i mean, first of all, nobody ever tried to stop them, right? and it wasn't just two guys. you know, they had four backing them up. yeah. we had no way of knowing till we confronted them. that's it. yore good to go. nothing to dad, right? charlie. dot say anything to dad. i'll take care of it, okay? you heard me, right? charm school boys. i mean, i'm sorry, they came prepared for war. davi we've got people looking
to see if the same accomplic were present at those incidents as well. and there's no doubt in my mind that was a detaile ambush-and-escape plan. and didn't hesitate to kill. ( sighs) well, from what i understand, in the last five years, this office has lost only two agents in the line of fire? mm-hmm. mcknight's parents are flying in from denver tonight. i'm gonna go talk to them at the hotel. i mean, i don't know what you say to a parent about their dead son. all right, what have we got so far? um, we think their crew consists of at least six individuals. from the firearms, use of explosives, the false 911 calls, we're assuming is a team with extensive training and experience. the gunman david shot was identified by hisriver's license as malcolm stapleton, 36. video game designer. no criminal record. how does somebody go from no criminal record to firing on federal agents with an assault weapon? that's the question we need to be asking.
already on it. that's the first thing we need to know, and we have to assume with their planning and preparation, they're not gonna hesitate to hit another bank. so even though we're looking at this guy, charlie's equation, that's still our best lead. well, he was able to predict today's robbery. he should be able to tell us where they're gonna go next. charlie... did you hear what i said? oh, i'm just, uh... thinking. uh... ( clears throat ) ( sighs ) understand this is an entirely new problem now. the pattern i was working from was a false pattern. no, no, not so much false as incomplete. you were able to accurately predict today's bbery. right, but there's new factors now, okay? they aren't two unarmed guys. so the assumptions we made about them are invalid. don: okay, all right, all right, look, so you take the new factors, and you make a new equation, right? it's not that easy, man. it's not that easy because, uh... there's something elsethat has to be considered.
heisenberg's uncertaiy principle. heisenberg noted that the, uh, the act of observation will affect the observed. in other words, when you watch something, you change it. and, uh... for example, like, an electron. you know, you can't really measure it without bumping into it in some small way. any physical act of observation reques interaction with a form of energy, like light, and that will change the nature of the electron, its path of travel. all right, all right, hold on, hold on. you know i got, like, a c in physics, so just take me through how this relates to the case. don... you've observed the robbers. they know it; that will change their actions. terry: okay, so they change their mo, but we don't have to go back to square one. we know some things about them. we have a basis for making some conclusions. right. good, but i, um... i can't help. i can't do this. terry: charlie, you feeling okay? yeah, it's just my stomach's been bothering me. that's normal. happens to a lot of us after something like today. really? i was the only one i know
look, buddy, come here. turn around. charlie, listen to me: what you saw was-was bad, okay? i know. trust me. it takes a while to process that. so what i want you to do is go home. come on. put that down. give me that. charlie, you go home and you get some rest. just go, and when you come up with something, just call us, all right? charlie, call me if you want to talk about anything, okay? charlie... we're counting on you, buddy.
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what do you got? the explosive in the car bomb was c-4. check into that batch. how are we doing on the fake 911 calls? two individuals using cell phones with scramblers. we're preparing voice prints. we got any hits on crews with similar mos? no, so far it's unique to these guys. and we should be checking into armored transport, and-and jewelry, fine art, right? i mean, they could've started in any one of those and, uh, moved on to banks. ( sighs ): i should be looking at mug shots, right? did you get a good look? yeah, definitely. woman: agent eppes. that piece of evidence you found at the scene-- we know what it is. excellent. it's an ultra-thin plastic mask that you can peel off in a second, wad up and throw away. right. a micro-mask. the cia uses the stuff for covert operations. that explains how he was able to just disappear. he could alter the shape of his face, his nose, making him unrecognizable.
charles? charles? oh. listen, i just stopped by. amita id that you weren't gonna be coming to campus tomorrow, and... i don't know, surely you remember you're giving a presentation to my graduate seminar. larry, i'm right in the middle of a significant line of thought. right now really isn't the best time for me to be entering in on a discussion with anyone, no offense. no, no, no, none taken-- it's just that amita said that you also said that you wouldn't be coming to school for a while? and i just think, uh, you know, considering your teaching schedule, the upcoming semifinals, i mean, it struck me as rather odd, just kind of... entirely unworkable. well, maybe so, but i'm close to a breakthrough on this three-set, and so i-i need to follow through on this line of current algorithms now
donny. hey, dad. you all right? yeah, yeah, i'm okay. i'm fine... ow, ow. look, my arm's a little sore. i got a-a scrape during an incident. a scrape? from what? well, a bullet, if you have to know. but it's not... dad, please, listen to me, okay? just relax. we had an arrest go bad, and we lost an agent, okay? and three people died. now i'm looking for charlie. where is he? he's out in the garage with larry. he's upset. i can see why now. what's he doing in the garage? he just working on that problem. you know. what? that problem he can never solve. the p versus p thing? yeah, yeah, that's the one. aw, man. li... li... where you going? i got to talk to him. i need a new equatn. wha... you know that it's considered unsolvable? well, certainly people who have failed to solve it might think that. but we all know, minesweeper consistency is an np-complete problem, so i believe that there is an answer in here somewhere. minesweeper? what are we talking about, computer games? yes, but if you keep talking to me, i'm going to lose my train of thought, so please don't talk anymore.
of-of adjacent vertices. look, please don't do this. don't do what, don? go ahead, go ahead, try and tell me what it is that i'm doing. you don't even know what it is i'm doing. no, actually i do; the thing is, i don't think you do. okay. i'm gonna go contemplate the koi pond. charlie, look, you helped us find these guys once before. you can do it again. come on. why, so you can get shot again? no, buddy. look, understand, i appreciate you care about me, but it's not gonna happen. statistically, you're dead now. you understand what that means? a man aimed a gun at your head and fired. the fact thayou survived is an anomaly, and it's unlikely to be the outcome of a second such encounter. listen to me. we don't have many leads, okay? if you can help us predict when and if these ys are gonna hit another bank, this is the only shot we got. please understand, sometimes... ( panting ): i can't choose what i work on. i can't followhrough on a line of thinking just because i want to or...
i have to work on what's in my head. and right now this is what's in my head. this is the license we got off the guy that david shot, which ids him as malcolm stapleton, right? all right. thiss a duplicate license of stapleton we got from the dmv. so... if the one we got off the body is a fake, then who is he? his current neighbors recognize that guy as stapleton. let's go talk to the neighbors of his former residence. all right, that's a good idea. yeah. hey, how's, uh, how's charlie doing? i don't know, he's just working on some famously unsolvable math problem, which is not a good sign. at least it's not binge drinking and strip clubs. that's true. terry: you're sure this isn't malcolm stapleton? yes, i'm sure, because that's malcolm's brother. what happened to him? he was involved in an accident. what's the brother's name? bill stapleton. he showed up a few months ago, said malcolm had gotten a job back east
did malcolm ever talk about having a brother, or say anythin about getting a new job? no. never even said good-bye. okay, well, thank you for your time. thank you. okay, so our dead guy is the brother of a manho was an only child. right. where do you want to start? i'm thinking if he never said good-bye, maybe malcolm never moved from her let's talk to the manager. the super said contractors came in to do work down here, but the owner never ordered the work. hey. check this out. ( knocking ) looks brand-new.
don: whoa. see that? terry: looks like we just found malcolm. we found a body identified by fingerprints as malcolm stapleton. terry: we think the man you shot killed stapleton and stole his identity. i'd like to be there when you talk to the me. all right. malcolm stapleton died from massive blood loss after his carotid artery was severed. the killer knew what he was doing. don: how so? well, the thing is, most people don't know how to slit a throat. they think you pull back the head like this. but in this position, the windpipe provides some protection to the major blood vessels. however, tilt the head forward, the arteries are exposed. the cut was made away and down from the assailant, minimizing blood splatter. the weapon was an extremely sharp, wide-blade knife. somebody with medical training? more le military experience.