let's bring in david shuster, joe watkins and jeanie to look at this. the convention alt wisdom has been turned. you and i were looking at the counties, david, and it could get to the point where bernie sanders beats hillary clinton. >> the excitement and expectation is growing in bernie sanders camp. they have a large number. still the report, bernie sanders has been beating hillary clinton among voters, he will likely pick up a couple of precincts and aims enough to put him over the top. we see that as 632 to 628. at best, hillary clinton may be able to say she got a draw. but it's looking like a possibility she may end up losing. and to come out of iowa and head to new hampshire after lose, a lot of people will take note of bernie sanders and say "who is this guy? what is he about?" that's not the scenario that hillary clinton want. >> the other side of the equation is bernie sanders would do well, and the turn out turned out to be close. also expected was donald trump would win with huge turn out. which there was, but instead he did not do well. >>

it just was bad timing for a good guy >>> joe watkins, what do you think of that? did he miss his opportunity? could jeb bush have been a serious contender if not winner in 2008? >> of course hindsight is always 20/20. perhaps even if he had a better shot. is a very different era, the era of twitter and facebook. the candidate tweeting the most is winning. donald trump has used this new form of media, the web and tweets to get his message out, to really suck all the oxygen out of the campaign. every single day it's about donald trump. every single day. he has probably spent less money on media than other candidates >>> why spend on media when you get it for free and they're talking about him all the time. we need to go back to south carolina. mike. >> on that point, a lot of candidates might criticise donald trump and the media did, but a lot of candidates would have that free media. he has the ability to identify with the networks and what is going to get ratings. we want to bring in lisa stark. she is at ted cruz headquarters here in colombia, south carolina. she

republican joe watkins a former white house aid to george h.w. bush. and david shuster is back. it is a great example of just how messy this process is, and they are not the same, right, genie? >> yeah, absolutely. they caucus very differently. and that was very telling when you compare the two. the republicans have a private ballot, and the democrats have a more rowdy process. >> it says something about this country that this is the first political contest in 2016. >> absolutely, so exciting of course, a lot of the campaigns already know where they stand, and they are really trying to measure how people see them, so like if you are chris christie, if you are saying if i'm the leading governor in the iowa caucuses that's a win for me. you have to dial back expectations so that whatever you do looks like a win. >> and david you contend that the candidates now already know who is in the room? >> yes, because they keep lists -- the maximum that a democratic candidate can expect to win tonight, maybe 80,000 tops. i guarantee, hillary clinton, and the bernie sanders, they have their