i think in order to win, trump needs to put away states like ohio, florida, and iowa and then start eating into the traditional democratic states maybe a pennsylvania or a wisconsin or one of them. but, so far. >> he seems to be close in wisconsin. i think it's 5. >> sure. >> he is going to new hampshire later this week. that's only 3. but, you know, three could tell the tale. i see it this way. that the first debate is really this year going to change pretty much all the prevailing wisdom there is in place before it. am i wrong? >> well, so i do think that the electorate is pretty stable. although we do see a lot of fluctuations in the polls. sometimes it's just a gungs of that trump has a good week so republicans get excited. clinton has a good week so democrats get excited. i think where we are right now is sort of the race is kind of where it was right before the convention. clinton has this sort of small lead but it's a lead sort of akin to what obama had in 2012. that's enough but maybe a little too close for comfort. >> let me put this forth because i don't believe the model of past

they say they are seeing very encouraging signs in iowa and in ohio. they have also said they see a lot of registration among republicans in florida as well. 37 states allow some form of in-person or e-mail or mail, i should say, voting ballots. as much as 40% of the electorate could vote before november 8. these numbers climb every time we have this process. latest figures from the u.s. elections project and associated press show nearly 20 million people have already voted as of friday. so before all this happened, a lot of votes were already baked in the cake. it includes about 11 million mail-in ballots that were returned and 8.7 in person early voters who have taken advantage of that option. so how does all of that weigh in with the news that we saw on friday? we will see. >>> meantime, in light of those numbers, is there still room for dramatic shift in the electoral landscape at this point? the latest projection from larry sabato's crystal ball shows hillary clinton sitting at 352 electoral votes but that was of course before all of this happened

our path is florida, ohio, iowa and north carolina. >> we are in arizona because it is in play because of the shame of things donald trump is saying about p.o.w.'ss has put that in play and important governor races in indiana and missouri and we put in resources. >> check this out, the politics subcommittee card showing hillary clinton clenching the electoral vote with 262 of 270 votes need but the door is open for donald trump. we will bring in our political reporter for the daily beast. betsy, we will get to the map in a second but coupled with half dozen over swing states, the trump campaign manager is saying trump's management to the white house including florida where is where he is naples, ohio, iowa, north carolina, and even with a big two week media blitz, they are planning, what kind of strategy will kellyanne conway need to make the statement come true? >> it will be tough. florida and north carolina, particularly, hillary clinton is kind of taking the lead over donald trump the last few weeks, the incredibly damages news cycles since the course of the debate. those states us

all she needs to do is win florida. or if she loses florida, win ohio and north carolina. or, you know, virginia and north carolina. or virginia, colorado, and nevada. or nevada, colorado, new mexico, iowa, new hampshire, all of which would get her over 270. so, look, i don't think that it's a foregone conclusion. that's why we have elections, so that we can play this thing out and we have 60 more days, which is not a lot of time, but it may be enough time. you saw now gives him one out of every three chance to win. he's the underdog, but he's got a path. >> karl, great to see you. >> thank you. appreciate it, megyn. >>> also new developments tonight on reports that an entire nfl team is now threatening to protest the national anthem on 9/11. on 9/11. i have a 9/11 family member here to react to that. >>> plus we'll show you what the cameras caught when they went behind the scenes with the clinton camp. mark mckinnon of the circus joins us next with our favorite friday segments. >> today, secretary clinton is on a larger plane, a charter plane with the press for the first

. >> you have got the four big states for us, florida, north carolina, ohio, iowa. that gets you to 259. then you have to find 11. and it's either nevada and new hampshire or or you can go colorado will be nevada, col new hampshire or one big one like michigan or pennsylvania which would be a game changer completely. or you get minnesota and new hampshire by the starts with those four building blocks to get to 259. then you take it from there. bill: do you feel what you just laid out is a reach? >> not a reach. but we have got to be good. donald trump himself has always said, on the map, they start with an advantage. but if you look at what's happening around the country and how this thing is closing. you want to be the candidate with wind at their backs. right now donald trump has wind at his back. that's where you want to be. "the des moines register" has trump up 7. real clear average has him up 3 when you put all the polls together. north carolina, quinnipiac has clinton leading by 2. you put all the polls together and she trails by 1.5%. move to florida. quinni

iowa, north carolina, i mean, you're talking maine, ohio, nevada. the three other states he's got to be looks at, that's only 266 electoral votes. colorado -- >> or michigan. >> or michigan. that's still an uphill battle. that's where i think you're going to see the trump campaign focusing on. if he's able to deliver the message he did today on obamacare, on trade, very effective, on message. i think it could definitely help him. whether he can bin win it, that different story. >> what's interesting, a.b., the trump story was on obamacare and jobs and he largely stuck to the script, almost completely. the hillary clinton message today was about women and temperament. and what he says about women and has in the past. and it coincided with an ad that they put out today. >> yeah, well let's start with trump. i thought it was very effective to focus on obamacare. i actually think this issue is moving the polls away from hillary clinton last week, even before the big shocker on friday. >> we should point out, open enrollment day for obamacare. >> right.

and is coming back in a way that shows in ohio, florida, north carolina, iowa and i believe i said iowa, that the republicans have the decided advantage. >> the other thing that is interesting is the ballot initiatives be it marijuana or gun control or minimum wage in some of the swing states are going to get people out of their houses and voting and once they vote they will vote for president. it may not be the presidential race that gets them out of the house. >> and sometimes that is politically motivated to try to bring them out and then they would impact the campaign. >> for sure. absolutely. >> i think what trump has is enthusiasm. what she has are these extraordinary analytics, the 1400 metrics the internal polls have been using to target the voters. can her three times as many regional offices compensate for the lack of enthusiasm that so many people feel? >> you mentioned earlier the polls have been wrong through the primaries they were wrong. a lot of people talking about the possibility of a brexit surprise. >> people hi to pollsters because they may not like the idea that th

iowa, north carolina, i mean, you're talking maine, ohio, nevada. the three other states he's got to be looks at, that's only 266 electoral votes. colorado -- >> or michigan. >> or michigan. that's still an uphill battle. that's where i think you're going to see the trump campaign focusing on. if he's able to deliver the message he did today on obamacare, on trade, very effective, on message. i think it could definitely help him. whether he can bin win it, that different story. >> what's interesting, a.b., the trump story was on obamacare and jobs and he largely stuck to the script, almost completely. the hillary clinton message today was about women and temperament. and what he says about women and has in the past. and it coincided with an ad that they put out today. >> yeah, well let's start with trump. i thought it was very effective to focus on obamacare. i actually think this issue is moving the polls away from hillary clinton last week, even before the big shocker on friday. >> we should point out, open enrollment day for obamacare. >> right.