or ohio or iowa who are undecided. they are not voting for the candidates at this point. they are voting against one or the other. i suspect with undecided voters, this could have an impact. if i were in the clinton campaign or were a house candidate and i would be outraged this dropped 11 days before election day. >> will this have an impact? yes. will it have as much impact as 1980 or 1992 before there was early voting? perhaps not. i can't believe with -- you come on the show and talk about the close states in play when you are talking about florida or ohio or iowa and new hampshire, there were polls that show ed i in clinton's hands and close to the margin of error. it will have an impact. i hope for james comey's sake and for the sake of the fbi and this country he had a good reason to drop this 11 days before the election. if he didn't, this will be a permanent stain not only on his legacy, but also on the reputation of the professionals that work in the fbi. >> joe scarborough, thanks for taking a few minutes. >

if you just look at it, it means if you're a democrat, you don't need states like florida or ohio or iowa nevada. you don't need those states in order to win the presidential election. >> let's talk about that, the florida and ohio thing. hillary clinton, because of the way things work, if you give her colorado and virginia, and give her new hampshire where right now she's up by 15 points, she can still get -- there you can see 273. that's a version of a map, of hillary clinton becoming the president in which she loses both ohio and florida. >> right. this is just amazing, right? >> for years, we had to acclimate ourselves -- >> it was florida and ohio. but because of hillary clinton's strength with white voters with a college degree, you've taken colorado and virginia off the board. tim kaine's adding points in virginia, and it just makes the path for donald trump, how is he supposed to win with that map being the way it is? >> one thing that's on that map that is clear, is pennsylvania. that's the classic republican fool's gold. every year, they say they're going to win it. mitt ro

they say they are seeing very encouraging signs in iowa and in ohio. they have also said they see a lot of registration among republicans in florida as well. 37 states allow some form of in-person or e-mail or mail, i should say, voting ballots. as much as 40% of the electorate could vote before november 8. these numbers climb every time we have this process. latest figures from the u.s. elections project and associated press show nearly 20 million people have already voted as of friday. so before all this happened, a lot of votes were already baked in the cake. it includes about 11 million mail-in ballots that were returned and 8.7 in person early voters who have taken advantage of that option. so how does all of that weigh in with the news that we saw on friday? we will see. >>> meantime, in light of those numbers, is there still room for dramatic shift in the electoral landscape at this point? the latest projection from larry sabato's crystal ball shows hillary clinton sitting at 352 electoral votes but that was of course before all of this happened

our path is florida, ohio, iowa and north carolina. >> we are in arizona because it is in play because of the shame of things donald trump is saying about p.o.w.'ss has put that in play and important governor races in indiana and missouri and we put in resources. >> check this out, the politics subcommittee card showing hillary clinton clenching the electoral vote with 262 of 270 votes need but the door is open for donald trump. we will bring in our political reporter for the daily beast. betsy, we will get to the map in a second but coupled with half dozen over swing states, the trump campaign manager is saying trump's management to the white house including florida where is where he is naples, ohio, iowa, north carolina, and even with a big two week media blitz, they are planning, what kind of strategy will kellyanne conway need to make the statement come true? >> it will be tough. florida and north carolina, particularly, hillary clinton is kind of taking the lead over donald trump the last few weeks, the incredibly damages news cycles since the course of the debate. those states us

all she needs to do is win florida. or if she loses florida, win ohio and north carolina. or, you know, virginia and north carolina. or virginia, colorado, and nevada. or nevada, colorado, new mexico, iowa, new hampshire, all of which would get her over 270. so, look, i don't think that it's a foregone conclusion. that's why we have elections, so that we can play this thing out and we have 60 more days, which is not a lot of time, but it may be enough time. you saw now gives him one out of every three chance to win. he's the underdog, but he's got a path. >> karl, great to see you. >> thank you. appreciate it, megyn. >>> also new developments tonight on reports that an entire nfl team is now threatening to protest the national anthem on 9/11. on 9/11. i have a 9/11 family member here to react to that. >>> plus we'll show you what the cameras caught when they went behind the scenes with the clinton camp. mark mckinnon of the circus joins us next with our favorite friday segments. >> today, secretary clinton is on a larger plane, a charter plane with the press for the first

i think in order to win, trump needs to put away states like ohio, florida, and iowa and then start eating into the traditional democratic states maybe a pennsylvania or a wisconsin or one of them. but, so far. >> he seems to be close in wisconsin. i think it's 5. >> sure. >> he is going to new hampshire later this week. that's only 3. but, you know, three could tell the tale. i see it this way. that the first debate is really this year going to change pretty much all the prevailing wisdom there is in place before it. am i wrong? >> well, so i do think that the electorate is pretty stable. although we do see a lot of fluctuations in the polls. sometimes it's just a gungs of that trump has a good week so republicans get excited. clinton has a good week so democrats get excited. i think where we are right now is sort of the race is kind of where it was right before the convention. clinton has this sort of small lead but it's a lead sort of akin to what obama had in 2012. that's enough but maybe a little too close for comfort. >> let me put this forth because i don't believe the model of past

it is important to remember she does not have to win north carolina, florida or ohio or nevada or iowa. if she holds her core states, she is at 273. >> what does the money say? >> if you look at north carolina, florida and ohio. three states she doesn't have to win. they spent $180 million on television in those three states. if you look at michigan, wisconsin and colorado, they states they have to win. they spent $16 million. they are going on the air now. they made a bet these states are secure in their hands and donald trump is testing that bet. >> let's remember there is a larger goal that hillary clinton has in her supporters have. they had it going back now two weeks when she was really surging ahead. that is not just to win, but win big. she wants some of the bigger prizes so she can run up the electorate vote margin and claim something of a mandate. she wants to win, but if she wins a squeaker, there will be repercussions in terms of her ability to govern. >> gentlemen, thank you. >>> t-minus five. five days until election day. please join us for our complete coverage nobody wi

. >> you have got the four big states for us, florida, north carolina, ohio, iowa. that gets you to 259. then you have to find 11. and it's either nevada and new hampshire or or you can go colorado will be nevada, col new hampshire or one big one like michigan or pennsylvania which would be a game changer completely. or you get minnesota and new hampshire by the starts with those four building blocks to get to 259. then you take it from there. bill: do you feel what you just laid out is a reach? >> not a reach. but we have got to be good. donald trump himself has always said, on the map, they start with an advantage. but if you look at what's happening around the country and how this thing is closing. you want to be the candidate with wind at their backs. right now donald trump has wind at his back. that's where you want to be. "the des moines register" has trump up 7. real clear average has him up 3 when you put all the polls together. north carolina, quinnipiac has clinton leading by 2. you put all the polls together and she trails by 1.5%. move to florida. quinni

iowa, north carolina, i mean, you're talking maine, ohio, nevada. the three other states he's got to be looks at, that's only 266 electoral votes. colorado -- >> or michigan. >> or michigan. that's still an uphill battle. that's where i think you're going to see the trump campaign focusing on. if he's able to deliver the message he did today on obamacare, on trade, very effective, on message. i think it could definitely help him. whether he can bin win it, that different story. >> what's interesting, a.b., the trump story was on obamacare and jobs and he largely stuck to the script, almost completely. the hillary clinton message today was about women and temperament. and what he says about women and has in the past. and it coincided with an ad that they put out today. >> yeah, well let's start with trump. i thought it was very effective to focus on obamacare. i actually think this issue is moving the polls away from hillary clinton last week, even before the big shocker on friday. >> we should point out, open enrollment day for obamacare. >> right.

and is coming back in a way that shows in ohio, florida, north carolina, iowa and i believe i said iowa, that the republicans have the decided advantage. >> the other thing that is interesting is the ballot initiatives be it marijuana or gun control or minimum wage in some of the swing states are going to get people out of their houses and voting and once they vote they will vote for president. it may not be the presidential race that gets them out of the house. >> and sometimes that is politically motivated to try to bring them out and then they would impact the campaign. >> for sure. absolutely. >> i think what trump has is enthusiasm. what she has are these extraordinary analytics, the 1400 metrics the internal polls have been using to target the voters. can her three times as many regional offices compensate for the lack of enthusiasm that so many people feel? >> you mentioned earlier the polls have been wrong through the primaries they were wrong. a lot of people talking about the possibility of a brexit surprise. >> people hi to pollsters because they may not like the idea that th

iowa, north carolina, i mean, you're talking maine, ohio, nevada. the three other states he's got to be looks at, that's only 266 electoral votes. colorado -- >> or michigan. >> or michigan. that's still an uphill battle. that's where i think you're going to see the trump campaign focusing on. if he's able to deliver the message he did today on obamacare, on trade, very effective, on message. i think it could definitely help him. whether he can bin win it, that different story. >> what's interesting, a.b., the trump story was on obamacare and jobs and he largely stuck to the script, almost completely. the hillary clinton message today was about women and temperament. and what he says about women and has in the past. and it coincided with an ad that they put out today. >> yeah, well let's start with trump. i thought it was very effective to focus on obamacare. i actually think this issue is moving the polls away from hillary clinton last week, even before the big shocker on friday. >> we should point out, open enrollment day for obamacare. >> right.

carolina or ohio or by winning any two of colorado, iowa, new hampshire. donald trump on the other hand must win six of these seven states, including florida, north carolina and ohio. those aren't great odds for donald trump. with just 48 days left for the campaign. joining us is mike murphy, republican strategist and veteran of many campaign war rooms and the host of a radio pod cast. >> i think the facts in the memo are basically correct. the democrats have a generic advantage in the electoral college, and if you look at the demography of the states and the internals of the polling, the clinton campaign is right to say they have an advantage and an easier path in the electoral college, that said, things are not going particularly well for hillary clinton. the generic forces behind her are loving to be stronger than her success as a candidate. that's something they've got to reverse. and this memo is kind of a function of nervousness in the democratic ranks, but the substance is basically correct. they do have that advantage. >> there's a new nbc news tra

ahead in iowa, ohio and florida. phony poles trump tweeted the media rigging the race. >> you see the phony poles and rigged the media they can wield absolute power over your life, your economy and your country. >> senate and don't buy that concerns they could go down with trump >> we get stuck for five dayos an issue that generate friday a statement that trump makes. >> reporter: clinton in new hampshire with senator warren taking advantage of trump's insults. >> we nasty women will march our nasty feet to cast our nasty vote to get you out of our lives forever! maggie who leads gop kelly. >> and unlike her opponent she has never been afraid to stand up to donald trump. >> in florida early voting begun with two weeks until ballots are tallied. >> clinton feels confident spend time helping democratings win victory in congress and really talking to in thors congress is the big battleground. some feel like the presidency. >> the adds. >> more to come. >> reporter: huge campaign issue. if you get your health insurance t

and florida and i'm giving him ohio and florida right now, he is going to it e get iowa. that's another 6. and then he gets the 259. from there he has to pick up new hampshire or michigan or wisconsin. but that's doable at this point. >> what is so astounding about this is not the race is still too close to call. we didn't believe we were going to be able to call this race until california closed. but that's not where we are this this equation now. this is much bigger than just waiting for california. we have to wait for everything. >> we're going to have to wait for everything. really count the numbers. i think most people will be pretty surprised if at least a few of these states are recounts or attempts to e recount. the other thing not to lose democratic pickup opportunities have been botched from florida to indiana to ohio. a pickup for them in illinois. but democrats felt pretty confident going into tonight they were going to take back the senate. frankly, it's not that long ago they thought they had a chance at the hot. that's not happening. the senate could not go

iowa was 4 or 5. 4, you had. >> 4. >> and ohio 5. >> single digits. >> when you look at virginia or colorado, it's just exploded in hillary clinton's favor. these states much more competitive. haven't taken off like this. what's the difference? >> fewer folks with high college education, high income. i mean, it's the demography. plug in the demography and you sort of get a picture of the race. look, these states are not as strong for a democrat. florida has been close. we remember what it was -- very close, not too many decades ago. ohio, you've got to sort of win that to win. that may not be the case. you know, i'm thinking about ohio for a sec. trump's strategy in picking pence, for example, was to do well in the rust belt states. starting with pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, indiana, of course. and what we're seeing in these numbers is that strategy really is not paying dividends at this point. so he's left with kind of a campaign without really a sense of where they're going right now. it's getting a little late in the game to still be trying to figure out what your strategy is, where you'

, and win iowa, probably, then he needs to win two or three other states to get over the top. so if he wins the big three, florida, ohio and north can linear than he is in hailing distance of winning. but he still has a much narrower path than she does. >> that path basically gets him, if he pulls that off, wins all three of the must win, two of which are had are hugely close right now, and assume he doesn't win pennsylvania which is he probably not going to win pennsylvania, probably not, the more likely path is doing this thing where he stitches together these smaller states. even that just barely gets him to 270 electoral votes it is a very narrow path he is on right now. it's not impossible. but it's narrow. there is not much margin for error. >> rose: back in a moment. we will talk to the new york times reporters who got the letter that contained the documents about the 1995 tax returns of donald j. trump and marla maple. "the new york times" revealed on saturday that republican presidential candidate donald trump could have avoided nearly a billion dollars in income taxe

or virginia, or a combination of iowa, colorado, new hampshire, wisconsin to win the race. that is the ground game right now. let me say that again. that is the long-term game. a lot can happen on the road to 270. i did a radio interview before the holidays, when someone was asking about the clinton campaign. some of the comments secretary clinton had made about orrin policy and -- foreign policy and isis. all she has to do is get 270 votes. no one had said that. but political insiders know, matters.hat ultimately it was at the washington center's january 2001 seminar that a former chairman of the republican national committee , that is whatd every political party, every campaign chair, and every campaign manager is in camp out. how do you get to 270? you don't need a mandate. -- drawt need to get out new letters. -- new voters. whatever the best way to do that is the way to win. let me be very clear. i'm not saying this election has been decided. the final 80 votes on the republican side are going to be hard votes to fight for. this raises questions about, again, the struc

then he just doesn't have -- >> state the states again. >> florida, nevada, iowa, ohio. and then he has to pick off one blue state, wisconsin or michigan or pennsylvania or new hampshire plus maine's second district, he can win this election. it's turning one blue state red. >> it's very, very hard. you're going for an inside straight. the state i'm going to be watching is north carolina. if donald trump hasn't kept north carolina, it's not going to be a good night. >> got to win north carolina. >> i think it's very, very tight there. >> but hillary clinton also has not been down in a poll in new hampshire for a long period of time. the three states that the clinton campaign is watching, virginia, colorado, pennsylvania. she wins all three of those, she's at 269, game, set, match. >>> reaction to the tightening polls from the trump campaign manager, next. and you're talking to youro doctor about your medication... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me go further. humira works for man

so we had just won ohio, iowa and florida. breaking news. donald trump has won florida. they say, whoa! and we won it big. but then the people back there, the extremely dishonest press said [crowd booing] -- very dishonest people. how about -- how dishonest -- how about when a major anchor who hosted a debate started crying when she realized that we won? how about that? [cheers and applause] tears. tell me this isn't true. you know what she doesn't understand? things are going to be much better now. she doesn't understand. i mean, think of it. we won in landslide. that was a landslide. and we didn't have the press. the press was brutal. you know what? [crowd booing] in the great state of ohio we didn't have the upper echelon of politicians either, did we? but i will say this, i will say this, and it was very nice, your governor john kasich called me after the election. [booing] he said congratulations. that was amazing. he couldn't believe how much we won ohio by or the election by. remember you cannot get to 270. dishonest press. there is no road. folks, how many times

so we had just won ohio, iowa and florida. breaking news. donald trump has won florida. they say, whoa! and we won it big. but then the people back there, the extremely dishonest press said [crowd booing] -- very dishonest people. how about -- how dishonest -- how about when a major anchor who hosted a debate started crying when she realized that we won? how about that? [cheers and applause] tears. tell me this isn't true. you know what she doesn't understand? things are going to be much better now. she doesn't understand. i mean, think of it. we won in landslide. that was a landslide. and we didn't have the press. the press was brutal. you know what? [crowd booing] in the great state of ohio we didn't have the upper echelon of politicians either, did we? but i will say this, i will say this, and it was very nice, your governor john kasich called me after the election. [booing] he said congratulations. that was amazing. he couldn't believe how much we won ohio by or the election by. remember you cannot get to 270. dishonest press. there is no road. folks, how many times

he's got to pull out pennsylvania or the other avenue again, nevada, iowa and new hampshire where he's doing fine or pick up colorado, michigan, or virginia. i think that's where we'll be on november 8. >> so you obviously want him concentrating on those issues, and we'll see if he does -- >> jobs, the economy, secure the borders, who is going to stand up to vladimir putin. we need to talk about the issues and the change that he will bring to america, change that is so desperately needed. >> congressman chris collins, thank you so much for talking with us. >> always good to be with you. >> always good to have you. >> hillary clinton on the rise in some key battleground states. that includes florida. yes. you know, that reminds me of geico's 97% customer satisfaction rating. 97%? helped by geico's fast and friendly claims service. huh... oh yeah, baby. geico's as fast and friendly as it gets. woo! geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more. ""you don't want to ride the 13l checkiforever, do you?"ore?" "credit karma huh?" "yeah, it's free." "credit karma. give youself some credit."

it's florida, it's ohio, it's probably wisconsin, it's that vote in maine. if he can do that, then get either iowa or nevada or both if you could, and he could hit 270. he could be over that number. again, a lot of big ifs in here. if he can hold the red states, if he could flip wisconsin. but there is a path for donald trump right now. if there is, that's what it looks like. joining me now to talk more about the state of this race, we've got steve mcmahon, a democratic strategist, and john fieri, a republican strategist. steve mcmahon, let me start with you. in terms of hillary clinton's campaign, they've got good news in the national polls this week. we've got her up six in our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. the survey monkey put her lead at five points. how good should the clinton campaign feel? >> i think they should feel really good for a couple of reasons. national polls tend to be the leading edge and state polls tend to be the trailing indicator. and you see her actually opening up her lead. the race is probably a structural five-point race, a

it's florida, it's ohio, it's probably wisconsin, it's that vote in maine. if he can do that, then get either iowa or nevada or both if you could, and he could hit 270. he could be over that number. again, a lot of big ifs in here. if he can hold the red states, if he could flip wisconsin. but there is a path for donald trump right now. if there is, that's what it looks like. joining me now to talk more about the state of this race, we've got steve mcmahon, a democratic strategist, and john fieri, a republican strategist. steve mcmahon, let me start with you. in terms of hillary clinton's campaign, they've got good news in the national polls this week. we've got her up six in our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. the survey monkey put her lead at five points. how good should the clinton campaign feel? >> i think they should feel really good for a couple of reasons. national polls tend to be the leading edge and state polls tend to be the trailing indicator. and you see her actually opening up her lead. the race is probably a structural five-point race, a

it's florida, it's ohio, it's probably wisconsin, it's that vote in maine. if he can do that, then get either iowa or nevada or both if you could, and he could hit 270. he could be over that number. again, a lot of big ifs in here. if he can hold the red states, if he could flip wisconsin. but there is a path for donald trump right now. if there is, that's what it looks like. joining me now to talk more about the state of this race, we've got steve mcmahon, a democratic strabtegist, and joh fieri, a republican strategist. steve mcmahon, let me start with you. in terms of hillary clinton's campaign, they've got good news in the national polls this week. we've got her up six in our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. the survey monkey put her lead at five points. how good should the clinton campaign feel? >> i think they should feel really good for a couple of reasons. national polls tend to be the leading edge and state polls tend to be the trailing indicator. and you see her actually opening up her lead. the race is probably a structural five-point race, a

well, ohio, pennsylvania is 20 votes. florida is the big prize, 29. ohio is 18. from 217 a candidate could take two of those three states and just needs to peel off north carolina or virginia or aor combination of iowa, colorado, iowa/newon hampshire, wisconsino win the race. that's the ground game rightam now. that's the -- well, let me say that again. that's the long-term game. a lot can happen on that road to 270. but i would, i did a radio interview right before the holidays when someone was asking about the clinton campaign, and some of the comments that made aboutlinton had foreign policy and and isis. and i said, well, all she has to do is get 270 votes. i said, no one has said that. but political insiders know that's what ultimately matters. it wasas actually at the washington center's january 2001 seminar that a former chairman of the republican nationalch committee spoke and said, and this was, ofmm course, after the 2000 election, that is what every political party, what every campaign chair and what every campaign managerca is thinking about, how do y

well, ohio -- pennsylvania 20 votes. florida, 29. ohio, 18. it just needs to peel off north carolina or virginia or a combination of iowa, colorado, iowa, new hampshire, wii to win the race. that's the ground game right now. let me say that again. that's the long-term game. a lot can happen to the road to 270. i did a radio interview right before the holidays when someone was asking about the clinton campaign. some of the comments that secretary clinton had made about foreign policy and isis. all she has to do is is get 270 votes. and i said no one has said that. but political insiders know that's what ultimately matters. it was at the washington center january 2001 seminar that a former chairman spoke and said that is what every political party -- what every campaign chair and what every campaign manager is thinking about. how do you get to 270? you don't need a mandate. a mandate is nice. you don't need to draw out new voters. what is the leanest, most efficient way to do that is the way to a win. i'm not saying this election has been decide

or virginia, or a combination of iowa, colorado, new hampshire, wisconsin to win the race. that is the ground game right now. let me say that again. that is the long-term game. a lot can happen on the road to 270. i did a radio interview before the holidays, when someone was asking about the clinton campaign. some of the comments secretary clinton had made about orrin policy and -- foreign policy and isis. all she has to do is get 270 votes. no one had said that. but political insiders know, matters.hat ultimately it was at the washington center's january 2001 seminar that a former chairman of the republican national committee , that is whatd every political party, every campaign chair, and every campaign manager is in camp out. how do you get to 270? you don't need a mandate. -- drawt need to get out new letters. -- new voters. whatever the best way to do that is the way to win. let me be very clear. i'm not saying this election has been decided. the final 80 votes on the republican side are going to be hard votes to fight for. this raises questions about, again, the struc

determining who wins or loses in a like florida, north carolina, virginia, ohio, pennsylvania, iowa, nevada, colorado, all of those battleground states, they will say that most people are dissatisfied with the way our government is working. they see our tax policies as too onerous. they see the regulatory burden on entrepreneurs and small manufacturers as too high. they see an energy policy that you have the washington bureaucracy that wants to keep it all in the ground and that harms our economy. when you get to national defense and our military, they see a military that needs to be strengthened. the only way we have a strong military is with a strong economy. all of those sort of economic policies that are so important for jobs and opportunity and our competitiveness are important and for us to have a strong, innovative military. donald trump ought to focus on his experience on what ideas, what conditions are best for investment and job creation, which ultimately the economy is the biggest issue. neil: in the end, you are right. it's always about dollars and cents issues. there you

florida is the big prize. 29. ohio is 18. from 217, the candidate could take two of those three states and just needs to peel off it north carolina or virginia or a combination of iowa, colorado, iowa and new hampshire, wisconsin to win the race. that's the ground game right now. that's, well, let me say that again. that's the long-term game. a lot can happen on that road to 270. but, i did a radio interview right before the holidays when someone was asking about the clinton campaign and some of the comments that secretary clinton had made about foreign policy and isis. and i said, all she has to do is get 270 votes. they said no one has said that. but political insiders know that's what ultimately matters. it was actually at the washington center's january 2001 seminar that a former chairman of the republican national committee spoke and said, and this is of course after the 2000 election, that is what every political party, what every campaign chair and what every campaign manager is thinking about. how do you get to 270? y

ohio, pennsylvania is 20 votes. florida is the big prize -- 29. ohio is 18. from 217, a candidate could take two of those three states and just needs to peel off north carolina or virginia, or a combination of iowa, colorado, new hampshire, wisconsin to win the race. that is the ground game right now. well let me say that again. , that is the long-term game. a lot can happen on the road to 270. i did a radio interview before the holidays, when someone was asking about the clinton campaign. some of the comments secretary clinton had made about foreign policy and isis. i said all she has to do is get 270 votes. they said no one had said that. but political insiders know, that is what ultimately matters. it was actually at the washington center's january 2001 seminar that a former chairman of the republican national committee spoke, and said, that was after the 2000 election -- that is what every political party, every campaign chair, and every campaign manager is thinking about. how do you get to 270? you don't need a mandate. a mandate is nice. you do not need

if he has florida, ohio, polls in north carolina picks up iowa, he's still at 259. with new hampshire, that only gets him to 263. he'd have to get a wisconsin, michigan or pennsylvania and right now that looks possible. >> virginia -- which is interesting. this was a state where it was so hillary clinton all the way through the run up to the election. they saw it tightening later on. fox called it because the northern counties right outside of washington when i was going up in far fax county, the rest didn't consider it part of virginia because those states were more of the washington mix. but when i was growing up, you could throw a stone and be in the old confederacy. this is part of the south of a republican state. but what has happened in the last 20 years is a big influx of minor ities, central americans through the 1980s, and then many others since then. all that said, this is supposed to be a much wider victory for clinton. and it wasn't. that's playing out in state after state after state. >> we watched the markets for signs. always have and probably always

she doesn't need michigan or ohio or florida but she needs someone's. >> that is for sure. thank you, jennifer. it's going to be a four more states have polls closing in the next few minutes. iowa, montana, nevada and utah will all wrap up voting. stay with us. stay with nbc news for your latest election results. back to lester holt in new york for continuing coverage of >>> welcome back, everyone. it's 10:00 p.m. in the east and 7:00 p.m. in the west. . the polls have closed inr let's take you through what we have. as you look at the vote total, looking at the state of iowa, it's too close to call. nevada, too close to call. utah, too early. keep in mind, that's a three-way race with mcmullin in the race there in utah. montana, nbc news projects donald trump will win in montana. . and we can look where we stand now at the race for 270. based on the projections we have made so far, trump with 140 and clinton with 104. we're also watching where things are close, the state of pennsylvania as we take a look right there at the map. but if we can move out, i want to show you wha

he has to win florida, north carolina, and ohio. of, you know, iowa looks good for him and he needs two other states or one sort of big one. two small states like new hampshire and nevada. nevada looks out of reach or he needs to flip a blue state. think pennsylvania or michigan and the one that seems most promising for trump appears to be michigan. both campaigns haven't spent a lot of time there. michigan is the one place that hillary clinton was upset where all of the polls indicated both public and private that she would win and instead bernie sanders pullhe resonate in michigan so there is something happening there. my question is whether there is just enough time. >> people who don't know what they're watching on screen next to you, chuck, it actually a scene from the scare for donald trump. is this something he has to be worried about more and more. >> i think we're at -- this is one of the times i think the secret service, they do a great job. they're on edge everywhere with all of these rallies. vet many of the people, luck

if he wins one or other key states in the midwest, be iowa, ohio, or missouri, this race will go on and on even longer, alisyn. >> okay. there you go, jeff. thanks so much for that. so four days now could be critical. he's on the leadership council. good morning, tpofrpbor. because you do know florida and floridians so well, i want to get your take on what's happening on the republican side. what do you think will happen here tuesday? do you think that florida will go for the hometown candidate of marco rubio? >> alisyn, if you asked me that yesterday i would have answered confidently trump will win. it won't be a blowout but we will win by five or more points. i think last night's debate could have been a game changer, particularly for marco rubio. i thought he did extremely well. he was articulate, smooth, it was a very gentile, intelligent debate, which is the format in which he best presents himself. i think it will be a close race here on tuesday. >> governor, what issue was it that jumped out at you that he felt he handled particularly well? >> well, i thought he handled the issue

if you look alt the trump map to 270, you take florida, ohio, north carolina, and iowa, then you need one of six states to pick off. whether that's virginia, michigan, colorado, new mexico, or michigan, or you can do a new hampshire or maine too. >> which of those states, if you had to put one of those states at the top of the list for trump, which blue state does he win? >> i like where we are in michigan right now, and i think virginia is closing as well. again, we have four days to go. if you look at where we are and frankly where they are, so for all the talk about the democrats, not only where they're spending their time but their money, they're seeing a similar map, kasie. they put the president in north carolina because they're very concerned about turnout there. they're putting their money in colorado, wisconsin, and michigan, and they doubled down in the last few days because they're seeing that. what we're doing is getting our team around in those states and as each day comes in and we spend more and more data, we'll spend more time in the states we think we can pick off. we

he wins ohio, florida, iowa, he's at 259. he needs 270. what does he need? he would need nevada. nevada plus new hampshire or wisconsin may get him there or maine 2, northern district there. >> polls show him up 11. >> it's a narrow path for trump but it's not an undoable path. i'm impressed by that wisconsin number. i think the states that have fewer minority voters and are older electorate which is true of wisconsin, minnesota too. >> a better chance of winning wisconsin than pennsylvania. he's not going to win pennsylvania. >> demographically wisconsin and iowa are mere images of one another. there's a good chance wisconsin will follow. >> the last poll had him up by eight points in iowa. that's shocking for a state that obama won two times. >> he's got to claw back some of those states if he's got a shot. we can put together these scenarios. it's a tough road for donald trump. if you're betting your house on it, you can bet on hillary clinton. seven weeks to go. dynamics can change monday night at the debate. >> so what city in australia? >> that i'm moving to? undisclosed lo