let's bring in david shuster, joe watkins and jeanie to look at this. the convention alt wisdom has been turned. you and i were looking at the counties, david, and it could get to the point where bernie sanders beats hillary clinton. >> the excitement and expectation is growing in bernie sanders camp. they have a large number. still the report, bernie sanders has been beating hillary clinton among voters, he will likely pick up a couple of precincts and aims enough to put him over the top. we see that as 632 to 628. at best, hillary clinton may be able to say she got a draw. but it's looking like a possibility she may end up losing. and to come out of iowa and head to new hampshire after lose, a lot of people will take note of bernie sanders and say "who is this guy? what is he about?" that's not the scenario that hillary clinton want. >> the other side of the equation is bernie sanders would do well, and the turn out turned out to be close. also expected was donald trump would win with huge turn out. which there was, but instead he did not do well. >>

it just was bad timing for a good guy >>> joe watkins, what do you think of that? did he miss his opportunity? could jeb bush have been a serious contender if not winner in 2008? >> of course hindsight is always 20/20. perhaps even if he had a better shot. is a very different era, the era of twitter and facebook. the candidate tweeting the most is winning. donald trump has used this new form of media, the web and tweets to get his message out, to really suck all the oxygen out of the campaign. every single day it's about donald trump. every single day. he has probably spent less money on media than other candidates >>> why spend on media when you get it for free and they're talking about him all the time. we need to go back to south carolina. mike. >> on that point, a lot of candidates might criticise donald trump and the media did, but a lot of candidates would have that free media. he has the ability to identify with the networks and what is going to get ratings. we want to bring in lisa stark. she is at ted cruz headquarters here in colombia, south carolina. she

let's bring in joe watkins, friend and analyst. thank you for being with us. former white house aid to jordan. h w bush. how are you doing? >> doing great. >> we are talking about this. it keeps changing. do you think rolling out the celebrities and activists will help bernie sanders make inroads for the african-american voters. or is clinton going to run away with this. >> sounds like the song too much, too little, too late. it's great to have - danny glover is a great actor and a true believer. i think the odds are against south carolina, for the most part in most of the states on super-tuesday. it will be hard to overcome the lead, the money, the long-term relationships that hillary clinton and bill clinton have in all the key states. i think he losses in south carolina, he'll try hard, make progress but lose in south carolina. i don't think he does particularly well on super-tuesday. >> let's say bernie sanders loses south carolina, but picks up the states, the mid wester or new england right. what happens to his campaign. do you think it's gone after that

republican joe watkins a former white house aid to george h.w. bush. and david shuster is back. it is a great example of just how messy this process is, and they are not the same, right, genie? >> yeah, absolutely. they caucus very differently. and that was very telling when you compare the two. the republicans have a private ballot, and the democrats have a more rowdy process. >> it says something about this country that this is the first political contest in 2016. >> absolutely, so exciting of course, a lot of the campaigns already know where they stand, and they are really trying to measure how people see them, so like if you are chris christie, if you are saying if i'm the leading governor in the iowa caucuses that's a win for me. you have to dial back expectations so that whatever you do looks like a win. >> and david you contend that the candidates now already know who is in the room? >> yes, because they keep lists -- the maximum that a democratic candidate can expect to win tonight, maybe 80,000 tops. i guarantee, hillary clinton, and the bernie sanders, they have their

. >> reporter: christie spent months on the trail in new hampshire but analyst joe watkins tells me it's hard to predict what voters, particularly those in the granite state christie was counting on, will do. >> he did all of the right things, show up, talk to the people, ask for the vote again and again and again ask for their vote. he did all of that. >> reporter: after that single digit showing -- >> money is prbly the biggest driver whether or not he can go forward. >> reporter: back in new jersey, some believe the governor's troubles elsewhere started here. >> i think that had he stayed in new jersey more he would have done better. >> reporter: christie, in fact, spent 261 days outside of new jersey last year when you include trips to pennsylvania and new york. past few months, dozens of town halls in new hampshire, work that did not pay off as hoped. live in the digital operations center, lauren mayk, nbc 10 news. >> for the rest of the pack, a big night for the outsiders in the race. >> so-called establishment candidates finished far from first place in new hampshire's republican

republican joe watkins is former id to former president joh george w. let me just start with the republicans. this has become an intense sort of intense name calling. i don't know what to call it. in nevada between donald trump, ted cruz and marco rubio. is this all a function of the way donald trump has run his campaign, how successful he has been? is that the way you see it. >> clearly he has got cruz playing the game he plays. it does not hurt him as much because people don't expect him to be politically correct. he doesn't have to play by the rules that politicians and elected officials have to play by. he also has a brand. and his brand so well regarded on national television was a brand where he said, you're fired. so when he's a tough guy, a blunt guy who is outspoken who is not politically correct. he's just staying in character. right now they're both battling for second place in nevada. that's nowhere you want to be. if you can't show you can win a primary outright then what chance do you have being in the party's nominee. >> some say if john