i don't know why i'm looking at nicole wallace as opposed to lawrence o'donnell. what a week. >> i would be using contact lenses if i knew how to put them in. the big decision for jeb bush, is it over? what would be the justification for going forward at this point? we are bound in the media to overreact to wents. this is not for donald trump a win of the majority of the vote. we've only seen that in the democratic elections. sense there are two candidates. he is going to win about 35%. 73%, 73% in the exit poll favor donald trump's unconstitutional ban on muslims entering the united states. he lost most of the people who favor his wildest idea. that is how challenging the trump candidacy actually is. people agree with many of his ideas and continue to vote against him because of a lot of things that we saw in those debates. the late deciders went heavily against him. they went heavily for cruz and rubio. how much did the scrap with the poem hurt him? this crazy suggestion of suing ted cruz over a campaign ad. how much did that hurt him? it probably did hurt him w

we're joined by in the studio by nicole wallace. we go over to the board and steve who has all the asterisks. >> they are offering us clues ar possibly clues on the republican side. two things to highlight that we're seeing right now in these numbers. one of them might be encouraging for donald trump. the other may be a bit more for ted cruz. this is one question that's asked in the entrance poll is are you a first time caucus goer? this is key for donald trump. people coming to his events that don't participate, would they turn out. there round of data tells us that 43% are first timers. the last time in 2012, the number was 38%. it's higher than we had this 2012. 2012 was record turn out. all time for republicans. you have more first timers this time. already consider you have repetitive caucuses in 2008 and 2012. to have an increase in the number of first timers after two straight competitive caucuses, that is a potentially significant statistic. the other one to tell you about that we're seeing that might be encouraging for ted

joining us here in new york, all night, nicole wallace, and gene robinson. great to have you both here. we're joined in the studio by steve car knacky, who is not allowed to sleep until deep november. steve, what we're all wondering about, hard to put your finger on ahead of time, but we know it will be critical, is the turnout, how many people will show up. >> it's the biggest cliche in politics. it comes down to turnout. it is totally true tonight. if you want to know who's going to win either one of these contests, you have to know how many penal are actually going to show up. let's start on the democratic side. historically this is how many penal turn out for these things. this is obama, this is clinton, this was historic. this was 240,000 people. nobody expects they're going to be close to that tonight. the question is, how close will they get. why is that significant? take a look at this. this is from patrick murray, a pollster, part of our decision desk here at nbc. he looks at the possibility. now, remember, 240,000 is the -- oops, i did that wrong.

>> because nicole wallace is vibrating at a high intensity at this point. she's six inches above her seat. you're freaking out. >> he talks about he is poll numbers on the stump every day for the first 15 to 20 minutes. >> the woman who said i like cruz and it looks like trump is going to win. >> we all said that to some degree. >> trump is not ahead in texas according to the polls. there are some polls that have him tied. but the impression she has is trump is the winner. >> but does ted cruz have any prospects of winning anywhere other than texas? >> he doesn't talk about it. so you have to think a campaign that's been so technically precise. i mean, their predictions in iowa, they had it down, they had the turnout model down to within 10,000 voters. this is a technically and operationally very, very good campaign. so they are not talking about winning anywhere other than texas. >> it's amazing to be a texas senator, thinking that you're going to win texas and not being able to say you're also going to win oklahoma. that's stunning. i mean, if ted cruz, o

nicolle wallace has been watching and listening from new york. nicolle, by my notes, a guy promised a greater future and bountiful america, why isn't he doing better? >> well, lawrence warned us correctly against looking at the percentages because these are small numbers of actual voters, but the percentages smell a very ominous end for the once hopeful cruz candidacy. 22 days ago he won the iowa caucuses largely due to the quality and the caliber of his campaign infrastructure. everything that has happened since that night has been the other side, the dark side, if you will, of that campaign caliber and infrastructure. on the night of the iowa caucus victory, he was accused of spreading rumors about ben carson dropping out of the race. he is the guy running as the character candidate. he has been hit with more attacks on his character and the character of his campaign than anyone running on either side in this cycle. and i think that what you see in the percentages of the vote that he's getting among evangelicals, it is insufficient to deliver h

i don't know why i'm looking at nicole wallace as opposed to lawrence o'donnell. both only -- both of whom join us. what a week. >> i would be using contact lenses if i knew how to put them in. the big decision for jeb bush, is it over? what would be the justification for going forward at this point? we are bound in the media to overreact to wins. this is not for donald trump a win of the majority of the vote. we've only seen that in the democratic elections. since there's only two candidates. that's why it's possible on the democratic side. he is going to win about 35%. 73%, 73% in the exit poll favor donald trump's unconstitutional ban on muslims entering the united states. he lost most of the people who favor his wildest idea. that is how challenging the trump candidacy actually is. people agree with many of his ideas and continue to vote against him because of a lot of things that we saw in those debates. the late deciders went heavily against him. they went heavily for cruz and rubio. so for people who wonder how much did the scrap with the pope hurt him? thi

eugene robinson has joined us here, nicolle wallace remains here. we're going to get in a break. remember, in 28 minutes the polls close in south carolina where we have by all indications, what did chuck todd call it? a fun night ahead. >> he said a fun night, brother, which means it's going to be really fun. >>> we are back and that is henderson, nevada, that is the bernie sanders event unlike the hillary clinton event which was in a hotel ballroom. this is an outdoor amphitheater. they were hoping for word of what did not come. in fact, they have been defeated today by the clinton campaign, but we will hear from senator sanders coming up. also, south carolina, we are 20, what, 24 minutes aw wawa waway closings there. an eventful night ahead. >> yeah, it's going to be -- getting a doubleheader at any point is always good in sports, it's triple good in politics particularly when you can speak with the national chair of one of our two parties, congresswoman debbie wasserman-schultz, democrat national committee chair, joins us from miami. congresswoman, thanks for being with us. it

nicole wallace, the republican story tonight is really fascinating. to chuck's point, he's so right. a week is a year in american politics, especially in this cycle. >> and what cruz will have done if these numbers hold up is he will have robbed trump of his central reason for being. his central reason for being in this race is his winneriness. and he will have deprived him of his whole purpose for being the best guy to make america great again, his best -- >> wait, you think it's key to his appeal that he will win. so if he doesn't win it punctures him? >> i just think his whole brand is about being a winner and the rest of us are losers. so he will -- in effect, coming in second is not as good as coming in first. he will have lost to cruz. and i think it gets at the central trump purpose. >> and it's what he tells his audiences every night. if i don't win it's a waste of time. >> you'll come to me and say president trump, can we stop winning for a while? >> you'll get so sick of winning you'll be bored. >> that said, because donald trump is becoming

rachel and i welcome gene robinson and nicolle wallace. nicole, as we round the turn into having real results, i don't know why we're all staring -- as we round the turn into having results out of south carolina, fourth place is not fatal, but fifth may be. >> yeah, fifth is a -- fourth isn't so good. i think after tonight we'll be talking about a three-person race and each lane will be represented. i think we will at the end of the night have an outsider horse. i think we'll have a very conservative horse and establishment horse. what we're already reporting probably gives you a good sense of who that is. the rubio campaign is feeling great about the early signs, feel that they're outperforming everything. they think by the end of the night they'll have a great story to tell about electability, what you alluded to. i want to talk about that debate moment because campaigns are never judged by their stumbles, but they stumbles, they're judged by how they sort of recoup afterward. george w. bush lost new hampshire by 19 points. he went on to

i must say, nicole wallace, this matches kind of what the talk you were getting from out there was that one of our plot lines is marco rubio would have a good night. >> cruz was way ahead two weeks ago. the fact that trump has topped him. and marco rubio is eating away at his support. he was a dominant figure in the iowa caucus in polling two or three weeks ago. the fact they are right on his heels is saying something interesting. >> thinking about the trend line in iowa. after donald trump announced he was ronning he shot to the top of polls. he held that lead until october when ben carson took it from him. ben carson collapsed in november and then ted cruz took the lead from him in iowa. ted cruz has been on the down swing. his momentum has been negative since then. the question is whether that created an opening for marco rubio. let's go to jacob who at the caucus there. they are not counting folded pieces of paper. they are counting heads, right? >> that's what's happening. this is not completely unexpected. it's very, i would say, incredible to see. this is the hillary clinton room

>> because nicole wallace is vibrating at a high intensity at this point. she's six inches above her seat. you're freaking out. >> those interviews at the red owe knocked me over because they speak to trump's political brilliance. he talks about his poll numbers on the stump every day for the first 15 to 20 minutes and is hard-wiring the minds of those in texas. >> the woman who said i like cruz and it looks like trump is going to win. >> we all said that to some degree. >> trump is not ahead in texas according to the polls. there are some poll that is have cruz a bit ahead. but the impression she has is trump is the winner. >> but does ted cruz have any prospects of winning anywhere other than texas? >> he doesn't talk about it. so you have to think a campaign that's been so technically precise. i mean, their predictions in iowa, they had it down, they had the turnout model down to within 10,000 voters. this is a technically and operationally very, very good campaign. so they are not talking about winning anywhere other than texas. >> it's amazing to be a

bush, nicolle wallace, up all night. and in man chest, new hampshire, mark halperin, also up all night. and in da moon iowa chris jansing who literally doesn't sleep. >> but on a normal night. >> never. >> i was exhausted staying up all night watching nicolle who was up here all night. i have no idea how you're still here. >> you guys are amazing. steve kornacki. >> i know. we have to start this where we ended it yesterday in des moines at 5:00. >> okay. where was that? >> well, willie and i, remember, willie, we were having the conversation we said because it's a caucus we have no idea how this is going to turn out, we're flying blind, and sure enough there were some shocks last night. >> we talked about turn out being the big thing. >> thrilling. >> huge turn out on the republican side, a record by something like 50% over last year's record, 185,000, except the turn out benefited ted cruz and not donald trump. >> and nicolle wallace, i'm going to say something that might get some of the obama people that ran that campa

wallace saying, it's over. he's going to win this thing. yesterday we basically said for ted cruz, it's over. for marco, it's over. unless something really dramatic happens over the next couple of weeks. actually, over the next seven days. >> yeah. >> try to -- try to put this into perspective. in all the years you've been covering american politics -- >> what happened? >> -- what's actually happening out there? >> well, first, joe, we've been wrong for the last seven months. >> well, we've been right and we're catching hell forit right now. >> most of us have been wrong. let's not automatically assume the wisdom has come down and it's over. we've elected fewer than 10%, michael, of the delegates. >> right. >> donald trump has a commanding lead. there is no question of that. next tuesday you'll have egates winner take all. >> almost all of those? >> obviously if he holds it, he's going to be the nominee. there's a 60, 70% chance he'll be the nominee. i think when people say it's over -- >> give me a scenario. >

bush nicolle wallace, "the huffington post" sam stein. in las vegas, managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin. and political reporter from the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst mark halperin. >> i had actually read from a "new york times" report earlier that trump was more caustic last night than usual about pufrping people in the face -- punching people in the face and other statements that he made. you -- you pushed back a bit on that and said it was pretty much business as usual. what's the answer? >> i have been to a lot of trump rallies. i didn't think he more caustic than usual. if anything, i thought he was a little more reflective. it was a very big crowd. he spoke for a shorter period than he sometimes does. >> you do understand, though, when you say he was a bit more reflective and one of his lines was that he wanted to punch somebody in the face that that's a standard. >> you've been to too many trump rallies. >> maybe you've been to too many trump rallies. >> i'm laying them all side by side and making

bush nicolle wallace. >> nicolle, how are you feeling today? >> we were watching. >> we were very worried about you on saturday night. >> i had fun on saturday night. >> you didn't look like you were having fun. >> i was having a good time. >> looked like a difficult time. >> which start. >> the entire part. with you gritting your teeth? >> no, saturday was fun. listen, this stuff is -- if you can detach yourself emotionally it's riveting, right? >> so when do you think that will happen for you? july or august? >> i've talked openly about my ten-step process toward acceptance, my parents are, you know, big trump people so i try to feel their pleasure in the twists and turn this is campaign is taking but, as a republican, it's really an eye opening process to see a guy that sort of takes a -- i mean, you and i talked about this on the air saturday night, see a guy that has come so far toward the far left wing of what the democratic party said about 9/11 prevail among military voters in south carolina. it's amazing. >> what's fascinating is, mika

the people that cycled through this room, nicole wallace not here but an establish the republican out this evening. >> poor kid. going to be a rough week ahead. >> lauren, steve is here in thewet pore session at the end of the desk. the folks you don't get to see who get none of the glory in control rooms and behind cameras and scurrying to airplanes. the people that did scurry to airplanes like andrea and casey, my friend named rachel who is the pilot of all things here in this room. thanks. >> this has been a lot of fun. let's do it again. >> yeah, something tells me we'll get that chance whether we want it or not. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for being with us tonight. >>> welcome back. two parties and two stories tonight. there is the leading story, two close to call as we go into the overnight hours. we had a republican victory comparatively early in the evening with ted cruz taking the iowa caucus, but tonight as we go into the night, it's the democrats that are gathering the

bush, nicolle wallace, veteran columnist in and msnbc contributor mike barnicle also with us as well. >>> so here it is. donald trump plunged back into controversy yesterday for his refusal to disavow former ku klux grand grand wizard david duke after duke encouraged his supporters to volunteer in trump's campaign. >> will you unequivocally condemn david duke and say you don't want his vote or that of other white supremacists in this election? >> well, just so you understand, i don't know anything about david duke, okay? i don't know anything about what you're even talking about with white supremacy or white supremacists. i don't know. did he endorse me or what's going on? i know nothing about david duke. i know nothing about white supremacists. and so you're asking me a question that i'm supposed to be talking about people that i know nothing about. >> but i guess the question from the anti-defamation league is even if you don't know about their endorsement, there are these groups and individuals endorsing you. would you just say unequivocally you condemn them and don't want their su

bush, nicolle wallace, former governor of vermont and former chair of the democratic national committee howard dean, and in columbia, south carolina, managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin is with us as well. >> we have to ask nicolle, how is your father. has he called you with gloating calls about trump, trump, trump. >> i will do dramatic reading. [ laughter ] they're super happy. super happy, yeah. >> really. >> yeah. now, my mother has been a registered independent for many years, she went down to the republican party head quarter ins reno, nevada, to register as a democrat to she can caucus with donald trump. >> so they here in and proud. >> howard dean, you've done this before. can you believe what happened the other night with not just trump but bernie sanders. >> he's got the vermont connection. >> holding hillary to 38%. stunning. >> well, bernie's a talented politician. and he is next door, that helps, and he's got a very powerful message. >> does it help? i've heard both arguments. >> i go back as far as dukakis, or ed muskie, the person next door has always won

bush, nicolle wallace. former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner. also with us from washington, pulitzer prize winning columnist in and associate editor of the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst eugene robinson and in milwaukee, wisconsin, managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin. i'm begging joe to take the day off but i think he's going to come in because i'm off monday. we're both absolutely exhausted. a couple side notes to get to before we get to the debate. not sure they're equally as important. trump signed a baby. did you see this? actually signed the baby. there's the baby with the spiky hair. >> what does that mean "signed the baby"? >> i don't know, willie, when you look at this -- >> oh, my god. >> is that a trump baby. >> look at the hair on the baby. that's a trump baby. >> you have to get that tattooed, that's what you do. >> i'd love to sign your baby. you're not going to want to wash that forehead, you hear me? >> roik rickey bobby. >> there you go. he had a massive crowd in baton rouge last night. we'll get t

and, yes, that involves the people in this room, the people who have cycled through this room, nicole wallace not here but outed herself as an establishment republican earlier this evening. >> poor kid. it's going to be a rough weekend. >> steve kornacki is here in the weather position at the end of the desk. the folks you don't get to see who get none of the glory who are in control rooms and behind cameras and scurrying to airplanes, the people who did scurry to airplanes with names like andrea and kacie. my friend, named rachel, who is the pilot of all things here in this room. thanks. >> this has been a lot of fun. let's do it again. >> yeah. something tells me we're going to get that chance whether we want it or not. thank you for joining us. >>> thank you for being with us tonight. >>> we are back with special live breaking coverage here with news on the iowa caucus. i'm ari melber coming to you live in the nbc newsroom. i can tell you right now hillary clinton has been named the apparent winner of the iowa caucus. we now have all numbers in according to the iowa state democrati

i have no doubt about it. >> tom harkin, kristen welker, steve schmidt, nicolle wallace, thank you so much. coming up, iowa governor terry branstad joins us here at java joes, plus republican presidential candidate rick santorum. we will be right back with much more "morning joe." all the log. feels like a bmw. reminds me a little bit of like an audi. so, this car supports apple carplay. siri, open maps. she gets me. wow. it also has teen driver technology. it even mutes the radio until the seat belts are buckled. i'm very curious what it is. this is the 2016 chevy malibu. and it sells for? it starts at twenty-two five. what? oh wow. i mean with all this technology. that's a game changer. frequent heartburn brand in america. i hope you like it spicy! get complete protection with the purple pill. the new leader in frequent heartburn. that's nexium level protection. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ you'rewhen a majestic beastwoods runs into view. then you run into a tree. but your totaled new car isn't tota

. >> chris, it is -- what's fascinating here, nicolle wallace mentioned something with me on the "today" show she said the dirty secret of republican politics is rubio is pretty divisive internally. it is envy of the ambition, this happened with candidate barack obama, too, there is a little bit of that and it's almost some in the party are gleeful of this. >> there's also a gleeful part because they think they have the opening right now. they see what happened in the debate as bunching everybody together even more. when you talk to the campaigns and they're looking at what they're tracking in their internals they're saying we think this is maybe even a crazier race than we thought it was before. you talk about how many tickets could come out of new hampshire, has this changed the narrative that more people can make a rationaler leaving here because they will be so tightly bunched in after donald trump. >> that's the thing here, peter. first of all, donald trump, he's -- he's the one ahead, he's doing fine. it looked like five days ago we were wondering, oh, is he going to start sinking

nicolle wallace, get back to your son. thank you for making time for us. i want to go to katy tur. she joins us from ft. worth. she was there when the announcement came with chris christie throwing his support at donald trump. katy, i know you've had a few questions as well trying to figure out what thisç means an whether christie is vying to be on the ticket or the cabinet. >> reporter: that's right, why would chris christie endorse donald trump at this moment. some of it has to be his anger at marco rubio and the negative ads, but i want to know is there something coming along the pipeline down the future? is he ang ling to be his running mate? is he angling to be an attorney general position. trump said he would be a terrific running mate but they haven't had those conversations. chris christie has said repeatedly he plans on staying in office in new jersey as governor for the rest of his term, which is a few more years. so certainly not giving away anything, but i wouldn't be surprised if there is something coming, a competition to be had later on down the line if donald trum

it is tuesday, february 2nd, and with us we have -- well, nicolle wallace was here on the set but she keeled over so we've propped her up in front of the flash cam. >> it's the palin cam. >> steve rattner is with us, associate editor of the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst eugene robinson and msnbc -- speaking of propped up. >> wow. >> steve kornacki. seriously? >> you squeezed a couple hours there. >> i don't know what's going to come out of your mouth because you will be punchy. >> i doubt it. >> in washington we have senior political editor and exhaust correspondent for the huffington post, sam stein and in manchester, new hampshire, managing editor of bloomberg politics whose eyes are very red this morning, john heilemann. >> it's a blues brothers look. >> nbc news is calling hillary clinton the apparent winner in iowa but it was gut check night for both campaigns. >> the iowa democratic party says the results are the closest ever in the history of the caucus and the clinton campaign seemed to indicate they had won with precincts still out. as the votes were still bei